Quick Fix Game 2: Crushthroat's Beginnings

[Kasimir]

in response to Kasimir:

I'm on my phone so it's difficult for me to check, but I'm pretty sure there is only one of each item available per day while the Quartermaster lives. Thus there is only one grappling hook we have to worry about today.

D'oh. Good catch, thank you. Sorry for the confusion guys: I managed to confuse myself with the rules. Please ignore everything I said about three grappling hooks. We only need to worry ourselves with one grappling hook today, so a margin of two votes should be just about fine to avoid a tie or a nasty surprise.

I'm just going to go bury my face in shame now.

 

Edit: I have to get some sleep right about now, so I'll be heading off. As things are somewhat slow at the moment, I'm going to throw some thoughts out and a vote. I'll be back in the morning to fix things and change my vote as necessary based on new information--running on 3 hours of sleep is no joke

Given that the Mutineers only get one PM to the killer, it seems to me that the rest of the team would be thinking rather carefully about what they want to say in those PMs. Now, that means for the first part of the cycle, the killer was likely on their own. They might or might not have already singled out a potential target; nonetheless, I tentatively suggest:

[ASSUMPTION] 1. The killer probably won't vote for whoever they're going to ghost. (On the off-chance they can get a bandwagon going--I acknowledge that my reasoning that we ought to have a 4-vote margin to avoid lynch on the Captain from going through would probably help them somewhat in this regard--they wouldn't want to double up.) From this, we can suspect three other possibilities:

1a. The killer either withheld their vote until they had decided, possibly with input from their teammates, or

1b. The killer first placed a vote on Aonar and then withdrew it as the decision to kill Aonar was made,

1c. The killer did not place a vote on Aonar at all, as they knew he was a likely target, and therefore went for someone else.

 

1a. points us towards the people who started placing votes late in the cycle, probably by the time one or two teammates could get word in. 1b. points us very specifically to Jeno. 1c. doesn't particularly help us, as it points us at pretty much anyone who isn't Jeno, Aonar, or Kal. (In addition, as Riingar has pointed out, this could be another lev incident again: killing Aonar, knowing it would cast suspicion on the people who seemed to have put votes on him, which would indicate that we're going in the entirely wrong direction here.) In addition, A1. is an assumption, as denoted. If we scrap the assumption, reasoning that the killer made the kill when it looked increasingly unlikely that Aonar was going to be voted out by the tribe, then we'd need to take a closer look at Kal. But Kal's name has already been burned in red, courtesy of King.

 

Here's the problem: at least at this point, I'm not entirely certain which possibilities can be safely eliminated. AlI the same, I do think it is fruitful to take a closer look at the people who placed votes on Aonar, as a way of being able to rule out a possibility or two. So I'd like to ask Jeno what he makes of things so far.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Kasimir

[Theorymaker]

Once Jene was all patched up Matim had time to think on the current situation of the ship. A Svordish man had been killed meaning one less agent from the Fjorden government looking for him. It wasn't even his fault they were looking for him. They had wanted him to heal a Gyorn but he had failed and the Gyorn had died. The government claimed him a heretic and wanted to kill him for not having faith in Jaddeth and his awesome powers.

 

Taking his thoughts back to the present Matim thought of the people on the ship that he had met. Riitiidiikiir seemed the most suspicious to him. Claiming some were innocent and others guilty while having only known some of them for less than a week. And Matim would have been fine with it too if the man hadn't thought he was very suspicious.

 

Matim is not making any friends, probably because everyone will need a doctor eventually so why kill him? At least I'm on the right side of untrustworthy according to New One's chart, but that's only because I don't have a sinister bone in my body. (Of course I could take one from Jene while I'm healing him...) If there is a serious reason for voting someone out there I'll join in (I'm mostly doing it for the coin now).

Edited July 8, 2014 by Theorymaker

[Peng the Just]

I will cast my vote today for wyrm. He spent a lot time using the personal messager, which I find to be suspisious

[Wyrmhero]

I will cast my vote today for wyrm. He spent a lot time using the personal messager, which I find to be suspisious

 

Is that a crime now, all of a sudden?

[Peng the Just]

Is that a crime now, all of a sudden?

Not at all. but it is suspicious.

[Wyrmhero]

Not at all. but it is suspicious.

 

I guess you'll want an actual rebuttal, so I will say some more. I talk a lot to people, since I spend most of my time at my computer at home while doing work. I've shown that throughout Game 5, the QF game (on three documents, no less!) and while Game 6 was on, though the speculation doc isn't available yet. My sig shows that quite nicely too - I worked hard for that award!

 

Simply put, I spend a lot of time on the personal messenger because I send a lot of PMs every day. It's hardly suspicious, particularly when the Mutineers can only do a single PM a day anyway. What would I be doing, re-reading the same PMs over and over and over again?

 

I find your sudden accusal of me to be suspicious though, particularly for that reason of all reasons. I was quite willing to give you the benefit of the doubt due to Mai's reasoning being somewhat flawed, but now that benefit has gone after the 'logic' you've shown there. I retract my vote from Kal. Why do you find it suspicious, Jene?

Edited July 7, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Peng the Just]

Why do you find it suspicious, Jene?

 

because the mutineers are going to be sending big long PMs to each other every day. It's entirely possible that you were sending them for something else, or that you were PMing meta. It is by no means proof, but it's better than guessing.

[Wyrmhero]

because the mutineers are going to be sending big long PMs to each other every day. It's entirely possible that you were sending them for something else, or that you were PMing meta. It is by no means proof, but it's better than guessing.

 

I could give an account of all my PMs today if you really want them, but I don't see the point in doing so myself - not only because of the fact that it wouldn't be proof either way, but also because I can't be bothered to go to that length to argue against this of all things.

 

I will say though that if you had checked more often than just recently, you'd have seen that I've been sending PMs for the last 12 or so hours, and therefore it's a Storming long PM if that's your reasoning.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Wyrmhero

[Herowannabe]

Okay, is anyone else getting more suspicious of BOTH Wyrm and Jene? I don't think they're both mutineers, but I wouldn't be surprised if one of them was.

Edit: changed my mind and deleted some stuff after posting this. I really don't know which of then to suspect, so I'm leaving my vote as it stands. For now.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Herowannabe

[Kasimir]

Could I ask why it's supposed to be reassuring that everyone is not voting based on whatever little suspicion we have now (supported by not very much evidence) but rather, for the coin? I want to ask every single person who has indicated they are placing votes for the coin: If you are a loyal crewmember, how does that help our team? How do you plan for that action to be something that helps our team locate and get rid of the Mutineers within the five days Aonar has indicated we have? (Four now. I'm assuming he assumed not just Mutineer kills but mislynches on our side.)

Don't just do it for the coin. As Riingar has indicated, doing that gets us nowhere. And: 1. the Mutineers can pass off all lynch attempts as attempts to get the coin, 2. while a mislynch would always benefit them, the Mutineers might not be that fussed about getting us to mislynch. If it takes too long for us to get on our feet, passive play on their part and ours can only benefit them as they have that kill.

Now, we probably do want one or two people on our team capable of winning a bid for the axe, in the event of the Quartermaster's death. So yes, do save for the coin. Get the loaded dice and help us get at that twelve coin minimum. At the same time, the problem is trying to figure out who among all the people looking for coins is on our team. Here's the problem: that'd be a perfectly legit Mutineer strategy. The grappling hook would be of great use to them, as would saving for the axe. They would also find a buckler useful if one of their own appears to be coming under fire. Given that, the statement, "I just want the coin" isn't immediately reassuring or indicatory of loyalty.

If you're worried about the lack of evidence, don't be. It's Cycle Two. Everyone (except the Mutineers, but even they only get one PM) is working with a distinct lack of information here. I'd agree the reasons I have at the moment to back my suspicions are neither ironclad, nor would they be admissible in court. Fortunately we're on a ship. But we need to start working and pushing with more than "I want the coins."

For what it's worth on the Wyrm issue: I'm not immediately sure the Mutineers would be sending insanely long PMs to each other, to be perfectly honest. I think it's a balance they'd have to strike: if they're offering immediate suspicions "Perhaps X is a Gunner or the QM" to their comrade, and advice on who they'd suggest to kill, then making PMs too long (i.e. spending a lot of time on that) would risk missing the window when the killer is online and able to act on that. Some of us are really active and spend a lot of time on the forums. But some of us aren't, and there's the problem of timezones to factor in too. So I'm not particularly convinced it's an indicator of guilt.

Is it better than guessing? Perhaps. Anything we're doing right now is quite frankly a guess, built on assumptions about how we think a Mutineer would play. Only time and more information will tell if any of these assumptions are justified or must be done away with. I'm hesitant to say Wyrm can definitely be trusted because the last time, that worked so good for me (hint: it didn't ) but I'd say that I think Wyrm's defense is sufficient for me at this point in time. Not that I won't be watching carefully anyway. After all, Wyrm is a compulsive liar

 

δὶς ἐς τὸν αὐτὸν ποταμὸν οὐκ ἂν ἐμβαίης.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Kasimir

[Herowannabe]

Speaking for myself, I can see a couple reasons for voting "for the coins."

First of all, coins are more valuable to the powder-monkeys than the mutineers (at least until the Quartermaster dies and the axe becomes available). The Grappling hook is best used to try to block (and therefore reveal) the mutineers. The buckler, while it can be useful against a vote, it has to be purchased exactly one day in advance, meaning it is more useful for protecting against mutineer attacks. The loaded dice? To be honest, I don't see the point of the dice. They cost at least 1 coin, and all they do is increase your chances of winning... Wait for it... 1 coin (unless I'm seriously misreading the rules, but I've looked at them several times now and that's what they say). So the best you can do with the dice is break-even and cause everyone else who gambled to lose their coins.

The axe is more useful to the mutineers, which, as Wyrm pointed out, is why it's imperative we don't let them get it.

Second, the other reason for voting for "random" people is (as Aonar pointed out on week 1) to GET that information you were talking about. I don't want to say too much because I don't want to give ideas to the mutineers on how they should or should not act, but much can be learned from people's reactions to getting a vote or two stuck to them.

Lastly, and admittedly this is the most shaky reason, but probably the most common one, is nobody wants to be the one to lynch an innocent player. Past games have shown that when an innocent player gets lynched the people who voted for him/her immediately fall under heavy suspicion. I've been there before, and don't really look forward to making that mistake again. So I don't plan on voting for anyone unless I've got some good reasons to suspect them.

Edit: which is not to say that you don't make some good points, Kasimir. I'm just saying there ARE some legitimate reasons for throwing out seemingly "random" votes. But remember, too, that there's nothing that a mutineer loves more than a bandwagon.

Edited July 7, 2014 by Herowannabe

[Kasimir]

Hreo: I agree that the grappling hook is best used to block the Mutineers. At the same time, what are the odds? The Mutineer kill passes around in a cycle. Without looking at what information we have here alone, the odds of a loyal crew member both obtaining the grappling hook (whatever that probability is; that's far too many assumptions for me to bother trying each case) and using it to hit a Mutineer is:

Base probability of obtaining grappling hook x 1/14 (occurrence of the killer) x 3/15 (or 4/15--base occurrence rate of a Mutineer.) Frankly? That's really bad odds. Gambling on that is as impressive as--wait for it--gambling for a single coin.

Here's where we disagree. We get information by voting for random people but not just by randomly sticking votes. If all of our reasons for voting people is "Well, I need the coins", we get some information from their reactions, but we don't get information about motivations because everyone's motivation and reason boils down to finding someone so they can get their coins. This is why I feel I'd rather listen out for something informative: including things people believe at this point are indicative of guilt, even--yes, Jene's reason. Here's the way I'm going to put it: to me, voting "because of the coins" is equivalent to voting like Jain does (no offense, Jain.) He's been a wildcard in previous games, and trying to figure what exactly he's doing is a nightmare. Sure, if we all behave like Jain, we could get something from how people respond to his actions. But at the same time, we deny people the second half of the information: looking at how people reason in placing lynch votes. In the case of Jain, it's meant that people have struggled trying to figure out what to make of him in a game.

Yes, that last reason is a common reason. It's not like I haven't been there, and in the past games, I've had legit reason to not want to be there, having been on Team Evil. It's a common and understandable reason, psychologically. In terms of game strategy? I'm not convinced it's a good one.

行く川のながれは絶えずして、しかも本の水にあらず。

Edited July 7, 2014 by Kasimir

[Alvron]

The loaded dice? To be honest, I don't see the point of the dice. They cost at least 1 coin, and all they do is increase your chances of winning... Wait for it... 1 coin (unless I'm seriously misreading the rules, but I've looked at them several times now and that's what they say). So the best you can do with the dice is break-even and cause everyone else who gambled to lose their coins.

 

The loaded dice do have uses.  As you pointed out they allow one to have a better chance of costing other players their coins than just gambling alone.  But more importantly, should the QM die early they give those that have them a great chance of getting coins faster than normal which means the axe is available sooner.

 

At the moment I will be voting for Mai, based almost purely on a gut feeling.  He has to be evil at some stage, right?

Edited July 8, 2014 by Alvron

[Renegade]

Alright, I’m back (finally).  Unfortunately, I don’t have enough time right now to weave an articulate, pirate-language response.    So, you’ll have to deal with this:

 

Okay, there hasn’t been nearly as much discussion (and, so far, lynching) as I would have hoped to happen today, but oh well.  It also doesn’t seem like many of the players I suspected have come forward yet.  So either they haven’t been active, or they’ve been trying to avoid it.  Either way, this cycle’s going to end soon, so it’s time to hurry things up a bit.  I’m voting for Kal FengShi.  While he isn’t the one I suspect the most, he has said the least out of my suspects.  Hopefully, he’ll come forward to try and defend himself, which might give us some decent information.  Also, people who have not been that active, try to make as many pertinent observations you can!  If we only let a few players do all the thinking, we’re not getting the full scope of the playing field.  Accuse who you think is guilty, not who everyone else does.  I know I’ve said this before, but it’s true.  Bandwagons are basically a one-way trip to failure.

 

EDIT: That said, I just realized that our vote "barrier" for stopping the Mutineers isn't all that high yet.  Obviously, your own opinions as to whom to lynch should come first, but I think we'll need someone to get on this issue, just in case.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Renegade

[jaelre]

@Hreo: I'm sorry not changing my vote made me suspicious, but since the suspicion is born of me not changing the vote (something I said it might happen, I may add), I have no surefree way of dispelling it. The choice of voting for you was merely that of the 3 the had not voted at the time you were the 1st on Meta's player list.

 

@Kai: I think that given that this game introduces significant motivation for voting despite not having significant evidence, should lead us to see voting "because of coins" just as not voting in other games.

I'm actually much more inclined of suspecting those that don't vote, because having less coins offers maybe not huge, but significant advantage to whoever can coordinate behind the scenes. As such, in absence of more significant proof, I'm actually more inclined to suspect those that don't vote, before those that do.

 

I'm not yet confident in going for a lynch though: Luka.

 

Edit: Blue

Edited July 8, 2014 by jaelre

[Newan]

Hello, all.  I think I'm only going to be able to post once this cycle, so I'm not going to spend time on very much RP.  

 

First of all, here's the Elantris Pronunciation Guide from Brandon's website: http://brandonsanderson.com/books/elantris/elantris/elantris-pronunciation-guide/

And no, it doesn't make "Riitiidiikiiiir" any easier to pronounce.  Darn.  Well, at least "Tie-Dye" still works as a nickname.  

 

Jene: I understand worrying about somebody hiding behind RP.  The problem with that is this: I had already given another post explaining why I had posted RP rather than evidence.  Even if you don't consider Kal's vote against Aonar a bad sign, I don't think I was the best option to vote against.  Jain was, and still is, much more suspicious.  His votes haven't really made sense.  I'm still not sure about you.  

 

Jain: On the first week, you "shenanigan" voted for Kal FangShi for the coins and to even up the votes and stop bandwagons.  That reasoning doesn't make sense to me because it didn't even up the votes (it went from 2Aonar 1Jene 1Mai to 2Aonar 1Jene 1Mai 1Kal) and there wasn't really any threat of bandwagon.  Coins makes sense though.  Now this week it seems you have voted completely for RP's sake.  Protecting your panda will not save us from evil.  

 

Riingar: You are fantastic.  I agree with everything your post said, and laughed pretty hard to see such sound arguments appear in pirate-speak.  

 

Kal FangShi: You seem pretty evil to me.  In a game with an evil doc, I would wonder that maybe you were being set up, but I don't think the mutineers have the ability to scheme like that.  I think they are more likely to try to eliminate those who seem like immediate threats.  An agressive Aonar with a diagram would definitely be a threat to the mutineers.  My suspicion is that it wasn't you who did the killing, but a slightly less experienced baddy who agreed with you that Aonar would be dangerous, but didn't realize it would reflect poorly on you.  

Note: I started typing this before Riingar voted for Kal Fangshi.  Sorry to tie it up, but I was already planning to vote this way.  

 

Matim: On the first week you voted against Wyrm for RP, coins, and because he was safe (aka he wouldn't be killed and reflect poorly on you).  Now you are voting for me because I am making my suspicions public and because I believe your actions were suspicious.  How is this supposed to make you appear more trustworthy?

 

Ratel: But what if your gut is a darkfriend? 

 

Jaelre: Your statement is true.  Voting for coins is just as suspicious and useless as refusing to vote.  

 

Finally, here is my updated Goodbad Scale:

 

The edit was to fix the goshdarn colors.  

And it looks like I have time for some RP.  Time to stir the pot.

 

Riitiidiikiiiir stirred the pot.  It looked like it was just about done.  Just then, he saw a flicker out of the corner of his eye.  I'll get him this time, he thought.  Riitiidiikiiiir had been practicing his knife-throwing skills.  He was going to kill that rat, if it was the last thing he did.  

Tie-Dye left the pot and ran around the corner.  At the base of the wall across the room sat something small and furry.  He quickly threw the knife before it could get away, and it flew true.  With a thump, the knife was embedded to the hilt into the head of... something.  It definitely wasn't a rat.  The rats on this ship were grey, not black and white.  As Riitiidiikiiiir approached it, he realized it was Jain's toy panda.  Oops.  Riitiidiikiiiir quickly pulled his knife from the toy's adorable face and speed-walked away from the scene.  Maybe Jain wouldn't notice.  Maybe he wouldn't care.  

Just before Tie-Dye walked around the corner, he looked back at the toy.  Somehow, the rocking of the ship had shifted it so it was staring in his direction.  Just for a moment, he thought he saw its eyes flash red.  

Edited July 8, 2014 by New One

[A Joe in the Bush]

 

Edit: I have to get some sleep right about now, so I'll be heading off. As things are somewhat slow at the moment, I'm going to throw some thoughts out and a vote. I'll be back in the morning to fix things and change my vote as necessary based on new information--running on 3 hours of sleep is no joke

Given that the Mutineers only get one PM to the killer, it seems to me that the rest of the team would be thinking rather carefully about what they want to say in those PMs. Now, that means for the first part of the cycle, the killer was likely on their own. They might or might not have already singled out a potential target; nonetheless, I tentatively suggest:

[ASSUMPTION] 1. The killer probably won't vote for whoever they're going to ghost. (On the off-chance they can get a bandwagon going--I acknowledge that my reasoning that we ought to have a 4-vote margin to avoid lynch on the Captain from going through would probably help them somewhat in this regard--they wouldn't want to double up.) From this, we can suspect three other possibilities:

1a. The killer either withheld their vote until they had decided, possibly with input from their teammates, or

1b. The killer first placed a vote on Aonar and then withdrew it as the decision to kill Aonar was made,

1c. The killer did not place a vote on Aonar at all, as they knew he was a likely target, and therefore went for someone else.

 

1a. points us towards the people who started placing votes late in the cycle, probably by the time one or two teammates could get word in. 1b. points us very specifically to Jeno. 1c. doesn't particularly help us, as it points us at pretty much anyone who isn't Jeno, Aonar, or Kal. (In addition, as Riingar has pointed out, this could be another lev incident again: killing Aonar, knowing it would cast suspicion on the people who seemed to have put votes on him, which would indicate that we're going in the entirely wrong direction here.) In addition, A1. is an assumption, as denoted. If we scrap the assumption, reasoning that the killer made the kill when it looked increasingly unlikely that Aonar was going to be voted out by the tribe, then we'd need to take a closer look at Kal. But Kal's name has already been burned in red, courtesy of King.

 

Here's the problem: at least at this point, I'm not entirely certain which possibilities can be safely eliminated. AlI the same, I do think it is fruitful to take a closer look at the people who placed votes on Aonar, as a way of being able to rule out a possibility or two. So I'd like to ask Jeno what he makes of things so far.

 

Alright, Time to Explain the Actions.

 

1. Writeup goes up. PM's sent out. 4 minutes later, Peng Posts a reply.
2. Mailliw Accuse Peng, because Coins.
3. Aonar accuses Maw for making a Vote within an Hour of the Writeup. (Actually, it was an hour and 7 minutes.)
4. I Accuse Aonar. {I accused Aonar, because he Accused Maw. I believed in Maw's Loyalty because The Evil Peeps can't discuss much. As others have said today, they won't have sent their PM's until Midway through. So Maw wouldn't have made that accusation until later. I think that the Experienced Evils waited until the end half of the week to post Important stuff. So Maw was innocent. I accused Aonar, because he acted differently then Normal, failed to use this Logic, and had a ok reason to vote for an experienced player.}
5. Aonar Retracts his vote for Maw. {he says he voted for Maw to gain Information, and now that he had it, he didn't need to vote for him. This seemed more like how he tends to operate. This actually restored most of my lost faith in Him}
6. Renegade votes for me. {For good reasons at the time. I hadn't gotten on yet to retract my Vote.}
7. I retract my Vote
8. Wyrm retracts his vote from me.
9. I vote for Luka, the Last Inactive. {Inactives can litterally get us killed in this game, by letting the Mutineer's get a killing vote.}
10. I go to sleep.
11. Aonar dies.
12. I wake up and go to work. I get home and check for the first time. I read all the posts, and then Post this.

This is just defending me. I'm not going to vote yet, until I've reread all the posts a couple more times.

Edited July 8, 2014 by The Only Joe

[Kasimir]

I find it interesting that I've suddenly been construed to be arguing for a bandwagon. I am arguing for 1. active engagement, with the mutual understanding that all of us have little to go on at this point in time (at least, nothing that would stand up in court ) and 2. giving a decent lynch margin. More recently, I've been arguing for 1. so I fail to see where concerns about a bandwagon come in. (Edit: And yes, I've mentioned being concerned that having the ability to block vote swings and a Captain lynch might put us in danger of a bandwagon. But 1. and 2. are separate issues as far as I've been arguing them.)

(I'm understandably a little concerned when players start misconstruing what another player is actually saying, because putting words in someone else's mouth could be simple carelessness or have slightly more malicious intent.)

In any case, at this point, I'm just doing up a vote tally:

Jatae (1): Hreo
Ratel (1): Jain
Jene (2): Mai, Wyrm
Jeno (1): Kai
Riitiidiikiir (1): Matim
Wyrm (1): Jene
Mai (1): Ratel
KalFS (2): Riingar, Riitiidiikiir
Luka (1): Jatae
Kai (1): Matim

I will admit that there is something else that would mean, within the context of this game, that would draw a connection between Riingar, Maili, Dellan, Jatae, Wyrm (Edit: Joe too) or myself and Aonar. Unfortunately, that is very unhelpfully broad, and I don't think it's something that can--at this point in time--be safely mentioned as Game 6 is still ongoing at the moment. So I'll hold my peace on that for now.

Jatae: How does having less coins offer significant advantage?

Alv: Yes. There's that too.

Edit: I've just read Joe's post. Will edit/comment in a short while.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Theorymaker]

I'm changing my vote to Kai because now I'm voting for suspicions instead of coins. I just find it suspicious that he is writing random gibberish which may be him talking to members on the evil team with him, or random gibberish to confuse people. Either way I find it suspicious.

 

In other news I got enough sinister bones from Jene to fall down the list! (Winning!...Wait, not really, darn). Question: What did Luka do to get moved down "The Chart of Evilness" (Had to name it). Well that's it for today, no white text or anything. Riiii just don't lynch me until I get a Buckler. Then you can kill me and I will regenerate because, well, I'm the Doctor.

[Kasimir]

Now we're starting to see something.

Very well--Matim, thank you for cooperating. And here's my response:

1. If you've paid attention to QF2, you'll notice that I have a tendency to troll in my posts. (I recall Jain was particularly entertained by my hiding a message "Really, are you that bored?" in a particular post.)

2. If you've paid attention to my previous games, I have also generally tried not to draw attention as an evil player and have therefore desisted from active trolling when I was playing as a Ghostblood and as Padan Fain.

3. In the spirit of honesty and cooperation, I will admit there is a message hidden in my posts at the moment. There is one player in this game who I've shared considerable background and teamwork with. I have been assessing this player and am not certain if that player is a loyalist as well. Rengar should be familiar with this situation.

Edited to add: However, I would question your logic. If I'm putting random gibberish at the end 'to confuse people' rather than to carry messages, then how does that come out as being suspicious? 
 
Having gotten a response from Jeno, and looking at the votes thus far: we have, at the moment, a tie and not much of a buffer in the case of any swing. At the moment, some of my suspicions are not particularly helpful. I could vote and hope they get on in time to get some information out of it, but at this point in time, with the cycle so close to ending, I think it's not as useful gesture. So that being said, I'm therefore going to vote for KalFS. Here are my reasons:
 
1. Arguing that Aonar got killed because he was trying to do something constructive, or because he was in general an experienced player, still leaves open a question or two. In particular, we have to ask why it was Aonar, when there are other experienced players such as Joe and Maili around. My current hypothesis is that it is because Aonar's recent track record indicates that when given the opportunity to correct for error and mislynches, his analysis ends up tracking the truth rather successfully, whereas many other people who number among the experienced players do not have such a recent record.
 
2. As mentioned earlier, there are several people in the position to know about Aonar's track record. As I've listed (and now properly compared to the player list and timestamps, so this is complete as compared to the last version, sorry) : these technically include Jatae, myself, Wyrm, Riingar, Mai, Joe, Matim, Ratel, Jain and KalFS. Now, that's not very helpful at the moment, because that's too many of the people involved in this game.
 
Of these, a few stand out to me. Mai, at least, has previously lynched players based on threat assessment. In other words, he is one player now in a position to be aware of Aonar's recent track record and who has lynched players based on threat. So while I wouldn't consider this 'evidence for' Mai's being a Mutineer, I would say that Aonar's death is perfectly consistent with that. In addition, we have a second, tentative connection between Aonar and Mai, where Aonar previously voted and retracted. So that's one question mark there.
 
Another possibility would be KalFS, given that he grounded his suspicions of Aonar on aggressive play, which, as pointed out by several, including Aonar himself, was what was needed within the more speedy format of a QF game. Now, I recognise that we sometimes pick a thin reason to place a lynch vote, because we can get information from how the person responds to us. All and very well. My problem is that if KalFS was voting informationally, then his vote was not responsive to Aonar's defense of his actions, which is usually how informational voting works. So my conclusion is that it was not informational voting (he had ample time to change his vote). In addition, I feel like the playstyle reason doesn't really say very much on its own. Which is somewhat shaky grounding for suspicions.
 
3. To tie or not to tie. To some extent, it does come down to this. I do have other suspicions, and in following them, I would give us a tie. At this point in time, I honestly do not think we can afford another one. And as Riingar has pointed out, a tie leaves us entirely at the mercy of whoever who controls the grappling hook. And if there's going to be a gamble, I'd rather not it be that the person with the hook is on our side.Dovie'andi se tovya sagain.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Mailliw73]

Kai, we all know that the person in your first number 3 has to be either me or Alv. I don't believe anyone else has worked closely with you in a game. So, if it's me you're putting the messages for, I'm completely oblivious, because I don't get it. But you know I like codes and puzzles.

About me killing Aonar, that is a good point. I might've done so if I was evil. He is a smart player and one who is good at analyzing. But in those case, I haven't been active enough to decide who to kill. My gut says Jene, and most times that's been good. He is also a Gunner and since you claim to be one too, I suspect him even more. I would assume that the Mutineers have at least one.

At the moment I will be voting for Mai, based almost purely on a gut feeling.  He has to be evil at some stage, right?

I wish, Alv, I wish. Eight full games and never once evil. It's even worse than Joe being evil three times in a row.

[Kasimir]

Kai, hello, is it me you're looking for?

Fixed In all fairness, this code business worked so good for the guys in Game 6 that maybe I'd have been better off not trying.

Edited July 8, 2014 by Kasimir

[Mailliw73]

Well that one was blatantly obvious, which is what we were trying for. We decided it would be better to let them know we were using a code and be able to say more than to hide it and say less. Which is the type of code you're using, I assume. I'll try to figure it out, but no guarantees. I've never seen a type of code you've made so I have no experience with how you do it. I am a loyal powder monkey though, but obviously I can't prove it.

[Herowannabe]

Well now I'm in a dilemma. I was about break the tie by voting for Jene (my vote for Jatae wasn't ever meant to be permanent, it was there just so I could "get the coin" in case I didn't have time to log back in today) but now if I do so it will tie it up again. While I still stand by all my "vote for coin" reasonings, they are absolutely trumped by voting based on suspicions and information, and right now I suspect Jene the most. Kal Fengshi is up there, too, sorta, so I guess I will go ahead and vote for Jene. That way, if nothing changes and if someone does use the grappling hook we'll end up lynching someone I suspect either way. And yes I realize by doing this I might be painting a huge target on my back. That's a risk that I'll just have to take. Besides, the only ones who can afford to not take risks in this game is the mutineers.

[Peng the Just]

Well. That will probably do me in. Before I die I just want to say I am quite suspicious of Mai and Wyrm. If anyone wants to retract their vote and not kill me, that would be great.