Long Game 79/Anonymous Game 10: The Rhythm of Freedom

[Amber Vulture]

4 hours ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Why would they claim it?

One can infer this by their continuing to make big posts every day, but I know they didn't use it D2 as I did. So they're essentially sitting on it now. The gem is pretty useless; I expected them to create something with it. Are they waiting because they didn't want me to see what they researched *cough evil gem*? Are they just trying to keep it out of the village supply? Are they Maverick-IM? (Jk, that's Araris) 

[Oxblood Beagle]

Well, there goes all that time that I thought I had. You all talk a lot. I'll work on it tonight, keeping my vote on Tuatara.

Vulture, infer whatever you'd like. Most of the reason I made those posts is so I met the criteria for all the taken rolls, except perhaps the first missing Artform. I did so intentionally. Whether that intent was as a Warform pretending to be a possible Scholarform, a Scholarform pretending to be a possible Warform, or neither pretending to be a both, up to you to decipher. I won't spoil the surprise. I've been trying to keep some options open.

However, if a player wanted to sit on the Gem and not use it, they've got no obligation to meet its requirements, and based on the fact so few people met them D2 I would think they'd follow suit. So if you think someone's still sitting on an unused Scholarform Gem, there's a lot more possibilities than just me.

[Amber Vulture]

1 hour ago, Oxblood Beagle said:

However, if a player wanted to sit on the Gem and not use it, they've got no obligation to meet its requirements, and based on the fact so few people met them D2 I would think they'd follow suit. So if you think someone's still sitting on an unused Scholarform Gem, there's a lot more possibilities than just me.

Mateform: can't vote on partner
Warform: vote daily
Artform: 100 words RP
Scholarform: 150 word posts
Nimbleform: no gemstone hoarding
Workform: can't solo vote
Mediationform: must accuse vote target

Evil gems
Stormform: must vote daily
Smokeform: can't make PMs
Decayform: must take an action every night

Scholarform is the only gem that needs you to meet a word limit besides the fairly useless (no offence) Artform. I doubt it's a gem someone who acquired it would be inclined to lose by failing to meet the requirements. I assumed any villager who got it would immediately use it, likely to make Warform because that's rare and valuable. That didn't happen. But you could have made that assumption too and realized you didn't need to focus on that requirement after D2. 

I think an elim got the Scholarform gem. Since I got the other one, they refrained from using it until after I had, so I wouldn't see what they made. Presumably they'll use it today and do something like make Decayform, which at this point I suspect may not have been in the initial elim supply. That last bit is conjuncture, but the point is, Scholarform seems to have been grabbed by an elim, so I'd like a denial or counter-theory why a villager wouldn't have used it

[Mint Heron]

[OOC: Mostly just posting this for later reference, since I'm about to lose access to my computer, and I would like to have a VC with the right spacing between lines. Here is the current VC:

Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Falcon (2): Rhino, Heron
Hyena (2): Lion, Flamingo
Rhino (1): Vulture
Vulture (1): Scorpion

I am pretty okay with where the votes are now. I might move my vote closer to rollover in order to truly secure the exe if necessary, but I think things are fine right now.]

[Plum Rhinoceros]

1 hour ago, Mint Heron said:

I am pretty okay with where the votes are now. I might move my vote closer to rollover in order to truly secure the exe if necessary, but I think things are fine right now.]

Really? Cause I was just thinking the opposite. Just the fact that the thread has been so quiet these past hours convince me more that Tuatara is village and the elims are quietly letting this through.

Hyena

[Opal Lion]

Last big push from me or attempt to make sense of the voting. This is going to be me thinking aloud more or less so RIP to everyone in the thread.

Day One

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

In retrospect, looking at this: I agree with Flamingo's N1 assessment Elim votes were likely (but not guaranteed) spread out. though they could easily have non-voters as well. I'm trying to italicise all non-active votes just to make it a bit clearer who was actually a live vote by rollover.

It's hard to be sure but we had a Swan-Dingo-Tuatara window at one juncture. Ross was the key swing, but Ross is Village.

Specifically:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (1): Rhino
Swan (2): Scorpion, Lion

These things happen: Swan goes onto Dingo, so we get:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (2): Rhino, Swan
Swan (2): Scorpion, Lion

In response, Flamingo goes after Swan for voting alongside their key suspicion:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (2): Rhino, Swan
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

And then Dragonfly goes on Dingo:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Ross, Mouse
Dingo (3): Rhino, Swan, Dragonfly
Swan (3): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo

So we have a 4-3-3 window where Tuatara is in the lead. I think the question is whether the other two trains were started to see what sticks and what saves Tuatara, but I find that a bit questionable because Swan was Village and I have high credence that Dragonfly is Village.

And Ross, a known Villager, is the key vote, turning the Swan train into the final train:

Quote

Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron, Mouse
Dingo (3): Rhino, Swan, Dragonfly
Swan (4): Scorpion, Lion, Flamingo, Ross

That's a decent amount of overt Villager activity, based off my existing credences (cf. Ross, Dragonfly, Swan, I exclude myself only because I know, GM PM issues.) We already knew there were scattered Elims, or at least a glance at the greens suggest Elims were scattered, but I think really lends to the sense the Elims either weren't especially worried, or overtly wrangling. Possible as well that high Village activity might have meant they didn't need to move in earnest. I don't know. Something to keep in mind as I move to the D2 data I suppose.

So, one key question: who didn't vote that cycle?

Quote

Tuatara, Weasel, Ostrich, Crocodile, and Beagle.

Won't rule out the possibility there is a crouching Elim, but spread out definitely seems right.

Day Two:

Quote

Scorp (0): Lion<1>, Heron<1>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Vulture<2>, Ross<2>, Flamingo<2>
Dingo (0): Rhino<1>, Flamingo<1>
Rhino (0): Dingo<1>
Lion (0): Vulture<2>, Lion<2>
Mouse (0): Ross<1>
Ross (3): Rhino<2>, Lion<3>, Dragonfly, Heron<3>
Vulture (0): Heron<2>
Dragonfly (1): Scorp
Tuatara (2): Heron<4>, Ross<3>
Beagle (1): Beagle

Tuatara comes up as an alternative, though Heron-driven. Movement is between Penguin and Ross, and we now know both trains are v/v. Strictly from the perspective of the votes, Heron comes off poorly as pulling off of a bad lynch.

Flamingo's move from Dingo to Penguin is unexplained apart from a "I'm going to risk getting closer to a tie." Need to see if this thread was pursued; if not, I should ask them about it in thread. [Note: Flamingo has since clarified that they didn't feel Ross was a good candidate - why so? Or why stronger suspicions on Penguin?] Scorp on Dragonfly is still odd: safe, reactionary vote, and if you agree with Ross's reasoning about ties, why not act to protect Ross? And why not @ Heron for further coming down on the tie? I'm sure I @ Scorpion for it; I'll need to read and think again. [Note: If it's not obvious, I'm just c/ping from my notes and relooking at the analysis again because I am lazy. I'm fine with Scorp pointing out that agreeing with Ross doesn't mean protecting Ross, but I feel their reasons don't change how their swift jump onto Dragonfly looks. It's a neat safe way to stack a vote.]

The fact no Elims were fussed and the tie persisted shouldn't have been surprising since we now know it was v/v. Once again, I would argue at most one Elim per train, if not just scattered on 'safe', peripheral trains, which is why Scorp comes to mind again, as does Beagle, in retrospect. List of non-voters:

Quote

Mouse (inactive), Hyena, Tuatara, Falcon, Weasel, Ostrich

That's a lot of quiet people. Possibly one Elim lurking in there. I'm interested in Scorp's read of Weasel too. [Note: Ok but not that informative.]

I'm still eh about Rhino in terms of vote-diversity I suppose. For someone who is active in discussion and has fluid suspicions, vote-diversity is sort of non-committal this cycle. Anyway, on to D3.

Day Three:

Quote

Falcon (0): Lion<1>, Rhino<3>
Penguin (6): Flamingo, Rhino<2>, Scorp, Lion<3>, Vulture<2>, Rhino<4>, Beagle
Rhino (0): Falcon<1>
Heron (1): Dragonfly, Vulture<1>
Beagle (0): Lion<2>
Vulture (3): Heron, Penguin, Falcon<2>
Flamingo (0): Rhino<1>

Feel like we almost certainly have an Elim on this one due to size, but that being said. Let's look at non-voters first:

Quote

Mouse (inactive), Tuatara, Dingo, Hyena, Weasel, Ostrich

Tuatara is odd, but benefit of the doubt if they're away for the moment, I suppose. Weasel and Hyena are clearly watching, just not voting, which is a bit of an alarm bell. If Dingo's bluetext about forgetting about the game is right and it had better be, since I have strong opinions about lying about bluetext, they probably aren't Elim.

Falcon and Penguin can't be Elims together so I don't know if I'd read Falcon Village for that. Breaking mateform by voting on your mate once you have the PM is no big deal because you'll keep the PM. Will have to go back to their posts in general. Flamingo either has one hell of a Penguin tunnel or low vote diversity: I don't really know which. Hyena gut-read Penguin subsequently as Village but was non-committal enough not to get involved, which is something that stands out to me.

Rhino's initial vote on Flamingo - if it was never explained, I'll have to remember to ask about it. His subsequent hop off Penguin and onto Falcon is strange, considering that he's stated he trusts Vulture, the Falcon vote does nothing, and the whole weird / weird-Evil distinction comes to mind again. Doing so directly endangered Vulture and read more like someone trying to distance from a bad train while keeping Village cred. [Note: Rhino has engaged with this N3 but I'm still flagging the vote pattern anyway.]

Hops back on after getting @ about the state of the votes and the possibility of Mediationform. (Oh yeah, Village don't vote manip does seem a bit performative to me I guess though it could be a playstyle thing too.)

I don't know if I am apparently going to leave the vote on Hyena. In summation, on the assumption there are anywhere between four to five Elims:

Quote

Mouse (inactive), Tuatara, Dingo, Hyena, Weasel, Beagle, Falcon, Scorpion

These are peripheral voters: they largely decline to take part in the main train, or just don't vote. I italicised Beagle, Falcon, and Scorpion because Falcon took part in the D3 countertrain to save Penguin, and Scorp has been on the D1 Swan train and D3 Penguin train, and is currently the lone Vulture vote so I give them 50-50 for peripherality. Weasel has not at any point voted. We've heard from Tuatara but Tuatara still declines to vote, unless I've missed something, we haven't heard from Hyena in terms of voting at all after D1, and Mouse has just been replaced and has gone on Tuatara. I think Dingo is/will be a moot point due to their being on death row this cycle. Either way, I do think there is at least one Elim hiding among the peripherals; credence that there are more peripheral Elims increases if we think most of the high-activity posters are Village.

Beagle's votes due to the late voting are just very hard to read. I don't especially get anything strong off of post analysis but I've always favoured vote analysis anyway. 

Back to D1:

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

We had the most voters on D1, and I think depending on your read of whether Swan/Tuatara/Dingo was V/V/E or V/V/V or V/E/E, it colours things differently. V/E/E doesn't read right to me, due to the lack of urgency and the fact it was Ross who made the fatal vote swap, though the Elim team could certainly have a good risk appetite. But maybe let's take a different tack. Let's look at each of the possibilities in turn and try to work out where the Elims might be hiding:

V/V/V

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

Let's look again at who didn't vote this cycle:

Quote

Tuatara, Weasel, Ostrich, Crocodile, and Beagle.

If it's V/V/V, the most likely Elim disposition is spread out among the trains. They simply have no reason to be concentrated because they have no real reason to clump up on a single train due to no particular need for one player to die. I think I agree with the assessment that the Swan train likely contains at least one Elim, and probably not more than that, which means that of the set of <Scorp, Flamingo>, I should by right suspect just one of them.

The Penguin train stands out as a nice, peripheral place to stack votes, as does the Rhino train, implicating Dingo, Hyena, and Vulture, purely in terms of voting patterns.

By definition, this scenario assumes V/V/V, so among the non-voters, I would have to look at Weasel and Beagle. 

V/V/E or V/E/V

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

By definition, this is the one-Elim possibility, but there are two sub-possibilities. Tuatara is Elim, or Dingo is Elim.

Here is the state of the voting while Tuatara is in the lead:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Albatross, Mouse
Weasel (1): Swan
Penguin (2): Hyena, Vulture
Rhino (2): Penguin, Dingo
Swan (2): Lion, Scorpion

More specifically:

Mouse votes Tuatara, placing Tuatara solidly in the lead. In response, a few minutes after, Rhino votes on Dingo:

Quote

Tuatara (4): Falcon, Heron, Albatross, Mouse
Weasel (1): Swan
Penguin (2): Hyena, Vulture
Rhino (2): Penguin, Dingo
Swan (2): Lion, Scorpion
Dingo (1): Rhino

In this scenario, Mouse isn't Elim. Rhino could be Elim, or not (wow, so helpful Lion!) - but I think there are two actions we need to look out for in this scenario. Who is starting new trains, hoping to see what sticks? And who is stacking onto existing trains that aren't Tuatara?

The next movement is from Swan on Dingo, so clearly someone took the bait. Meanwhile, Flamingo votes Swan for voting alongside one of their suspicions. Dragonfly then stacks up on Dingo. This alternative train is now live. Ross goes soon onto Swan, and makes it 4-3.

Ross and Swan are known Villagers, so I'm going to exclude them from analysis. In terms of stacking, Dragonfly and Flamingo stick out. In terms of train creation, Rhino is the only one who sticks out. The Penguin train existed before Tuatara was really in danger.

If we look at the sub-possibility where Dingo is Elim, Dingo is only in mild danger after Dragonfly stacks up. I don't take that to be especially indicative due to my Village read of Dragonfly and Swan is known Village; however, it is possible that Rhino was distancing. No strong read either way from this vote, but I don't think Rhino is wrong to ? Dingo in this case so it's not obviously a strange or bad vote.

I feel that in either of these possibilities, we are likely to have fewer non-committal Elims, but I think that given the amount of likely Village activity (Dragonfly, Ross, Swan) near the end, it's difficult to say for sure.

V/E/E

Leaves us with one big question: where are the Elims?

Ties don't kill in this game, so they may very well have been fine with a tie or a near tie, with someone waiting to ensure one if need be.

Quote

Rhino (2): Lion<1>, Penguin<1>, Dingo, Swan<3>
Penguin (2): Vulture<1>, Hyena, Vulture<3>
Swan (4): Rhino<1>, Lion<2>, Scorpion<2>, Flamingo, Ross<2>
Tuatara (3): Falcon, Heron <2>, Ross<1>, Mouse
Ross (0): Rhino<2>
Weasel (0): Scorpion<1>, Vulture<2>, Swan<1>
Dingo (2): Rhino<3>, Swan<2>, Dragonfly

Not necessarily exculpatory for Rhino - distancing votes happen, and Rhino may not have expected Swan or Dragonfly to swoop on in. Mouse looks unlikely to be Elim in this scenario. Falcon could have been distancing, but this gives us at most one Elim on the Tuatara train, if at all. It does look a bit better for Heron and Falcon I suppose. Swan train looks worse in comparison. Given the timing of my Swan vote, I'd say Flamingo's movement is noteworthy in this scenario, since we must ignore Ross's.

I think across all the scenarios, "Spread out" is the best answer: the Dingo train did come together a bit fast, but when we know the key shifts were done by Villagers or people we have higher credence are Villagers, it's hard to postulate enemy action here. Which is one way of saying: the non-voter trains, and possibly some peripheral trains, either because they had no stake in the voting, or because they wanted to see what would stick.

Wow, Rhino just posted something as I've been squinting at this mega-post. Let me see what I've missed once I'm done. I just want to finish my duty  

[Charcoal Hyena]

Lots to read through, sorry I've been a bit out. I got signed out of the Shard and couldn't find where the password to the anon account was due to just being out and about. I'm back now.

27 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Really? Cause I was just thinking the opposite. Just the fact that the thread has been so quiet these past hours convince me more that Tuatara is village and the elims are quietly letting this through.

Hyena

May I ask why you're putting this vote on? I understand there's been some reasons posted throughout the thread recently for me being an elim, and I believe you posted something earlier... one moment.

On 7/28/2021 at 7:41 PM, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Charcoal Hyena: Early D1 they had the thing about how we should go for Mateform and Scholarform- I originally found it odd they prioritized Mateform so high, but this time around it didn't strike me as odd as it did then. However, they went after Penguin pretty hard, going as far as to twist a statement in a form of confbias simply for the sake of calling them out. A few other Hyena posts, rereading them, strike me as off.

Confbias? Sorry, unfamiliar with that term. I really disliked Penguin's style D1 and it just seemed off to me, but as we went through N1 and later it started to feel a lot more like a playstyle rather than an elim attempting to avoid scrutiny. 

I'm a bit proponent of PMs, I've one games with them before, and I think that they also significantly help us in this game, specifically with Mavset-Im being able to body-snatch. If you keep it quiet who you are PM mates with then it functions as another way to reveal who they are without them knowing - like with the Warform extra life - and I just think that it is generally better that we have the PMs and start using them earlier than later.

On the subject of mateform, what does it mean that you "can not vote for the person you are in a PM with"? Like if I was in a PM with Rhino and then tossed a vote on them would our PM close, or would my vote just not be counted? What happens if I switch out of Mateform, am I still limited? @Steeldancer

On 7/28/2021 at 9:58 PM, Amber Vulture said:

In more reliable analysis news, I'd still like to know if anyone made a PM last night. To those that didn't, why not? It would have cleared you of having submitted the NK

I did not make a PM last night, I was putting on a form. D1 I went for Scholarform, D2 I was inactive and then D3 I finally was able to get a gemstone, so I was putting on the form last night.
That may make me read more elim as I don't have an alibi, but that's just how life is. 

Vote Count as it stands should be 

Tuatara (3): Mouse, Falcon, Beagle
Hyena (3): Lion, Flamingo, Rhino*
Falcon (1): Heron
Rhino (1): Vulture
Vulture (1): Scorpion

* @Plum Rhinoceros You never retracted your vote on Falcon, and I don't remember specifically how voting works, but to make sure that clears properly you might want to do that. I could be misremembering the rules, and too lazy to look them up - but I thought I'd point it out. 

So I'll quickly go read over Tuatara and see if they are giving an elim read. If anyone has any questions that I can answer to prove my village-ness then please let me know. I have a bit of time while I'll be reading over Tuatara's posts before I need to get going.

[Cream Tuatara]

So, uh, why am I picking up steam again? Mouse seems to want their opinions on my d1 post to be heard, and I won't sus them too hard for that, but Beagle seems to just be jumping on a train that requires little reason to go on, without bringing much suspicion with it. Normally, I would give them the benefit of the doubt due to their inactivity, but it seems like they've just been flying under the radar, considering they've voted every day except d1, they seem to be keeping either a constant soft warform, or trying to influence the exe without being really noticed.

[Opal Lion]

So, can anyone confirm being Hyena's mate? 

Reads potentially like workform to me. 

[Charcoal Hyena]

52 minutes ago, Opal Lion said:

So, can anyone confirm being Hyena's mate? 

I sent them a message asking them if they would, but I will not be revealing who they are without their permission at this time. 

I'm really not a big fan of most of the lynch candidates so far. Tuatara doesn't read as overly suspicious to me, I obviously would like to not be lynched, and a brief skim of everyone else seems to be fairly inconclusive. I'm just about out of time for now, but I should be back before the cycle ends. I will find someone to vote on before the end of the cycle, I just don't know who yet. 

Current thoughts:
Tuatara: Posts don't come off as an elim. Definitely possible, but I read much more as a villager with a different playstyle that me,
Mouse: Part of me is wondering if the play asking for an elim gemstone was a distraction for an elim who was already part of the elim team, and was mainly looking to throw people off their trail. I don't think that is likely but part of me wants it to have happened just for the sheer audacity. 
Hyena: I don't want to die, but I'm willing to go down if that's what it takes for the village. Come end of the cycle if I have to chose between tying the lynch and being lynched then I will let myself be lynched. 
Lion: Even though you're trying to kill me, you're cool. I think that you have great analysis and are a huge benefit to the village. I'm honestly kind of surprised that you haven't been killed yet by the elims.
Rhino: If you are an elim as of right now then I give up If that was a WGG then I don't know what to do, but I have a slight village read on you with a strong village read on you due to the attack last night. I'd be surprised if you're attacked again at this point just for the thread of the lurking WGG for the rest of the village.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Charcoal Hyena
Changed Lynches to "Lynch Candidates"

[Opal Lion]

5 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

I sent them a message asking them if they would, but I will not be revealing who they are without their permission at this time. 

Not to put too fine a point on it, but someone who refuses to reveal they are your mate when you say:

7 hours ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

I did not make a PM last night, I was putting on a form. D1 I went for Scholarform, D2 I was inactive and then D3 I finally was able to get a gemstone, so I was putting on the form last night.
That may make me read more elim as I don't have an alibi, but that's just how life is. 

should be automatically suspicious, since if you did just gain mateform, this would show you cannot have put in the NK, which would literally give you an alibi. At this point, given you're one half of the leading tie, refusal to speak up in favour of you on something as minor as this doesn't seem a very Village thing to do.

I am not excessively set on Hyena though. My vote on them is largely because Hyena is clearly present, but not voting, and also a peripheral, and I'm softening my stance on Rhino after a wincon comment from Rhino in our group PM  I may swap to Falcon I guess. On rereading, I think they fit the criterion for peripherality as well, and while I understand players not wanting to lose PMs, I'm not especially getting a good vibe off their C1 response to Tuatara, and their votes do feel a bit sticky, which is ironic, given that's what they @ me for as well.

I am half-tempted to go Weasel, to join Tuatara on Beagle, or to -

You know what.

Hyena Beagle - because I like Beagles but I think Oxblood is a bad colour on them  

[Amber Vulture]

7 hours ago, Cream Tuatara said:

So, uh, why am I picking up steam again? Mouse seems to want their opinions on my d1 post to be heard, and I won't sus them too hard for that, but Beagle seems to just be jumping on a train that requires little reason to go on, without bringing much suspicion with it. Normally, I would give them the benefit of the doubt due to their inactivity, but it seems like they've just been flying under the radar, considering they've voted every day except d1, they seem to be keeping either a constant soft warform, or trying to influence the exe without being really noticed.

Interesting move, not voting for Hyena, who was a more viable CW to your own death until about 25 minutes ago. 

I find the Tuatara wagon strange. Villagers tend to have recency bias; a bunch of people falling back on D1 reasoning, while logically sound, doesn't seem genuine to me. So I think the elims want that train to succeed over any other. 

Tuatara, how sticky is your vote? I think you're a villager, so you might get spooked by the pile-on I think is coming. But we need to consolidate the vote, so having reevaluated the WGG likelihood (Mouse, despite having a bad vote this round, made a good point), and having a dislike of Beagle's reaction to my Scholarform questions, I'm moving my vote there. I still get bad vibes from Hyena. They leaned heavily into rules analysis there and other irrelevant trains of thought; Mateform is an easy Gem for the elims to fake having because they can claim a fellow elim is the partner. But if Hyena looks set to die, they probably don't want to do that because it gives us a free elim after. Looking at it, I actually feel more confident about Hyena, but we all know I'm just gonna switch to make the most viable train anyway. I assume Rhino will do the same, so Lion, Dragonfly, you two are our kingmakers at this point. Rhino  Beagle

[Steeldancer]

Hyena, when no longer in Mateform, the restrictions of mateform no longer apply. So you'd be able to vote on the person your in Mateform with. 

[Amber Vulture]

Don't scare me like that, GM, I thought you were closing the round 

[Steeldancer]

1 minute ago, Amber Vulture said:

Don't scare me like that, GM, I thought you were closing the round 

Nope, not yet. The day ends in about 3.5 hours, so you have plenty of time to get your votes and actions in. 

[Opal Lion]

25 minutes ago, Steeldancer said:

Nope, not yet. The day ends in about 3.5 hours, so you have plenty of time to get your votes and actions in. 

Given I believe we are currently in a three way tie, this seems necessary

Continuing to evaluate. Hyena's last post tries to be helpful: noted that it comes as a response to pressure. On further thought, I generally feel mateform is difficult to fakeclaim as since two mateform gems went missing, the real mates should know each other, but have not sounded out, though to be fair, maybe timezones. Or if they haven't used the gems I guess. 

We're currently 9-5 or 10-4 — I prefer 9-5 as I think it's important to build a buffer into our assumptions. 

My vote is likely going to move as well. I would prefer no mess from mediationform and we currently are in a tie. 

[Onyx Flamingo]

On 7/28/2021 at 11:02 PM, Mint Heron said:

Whether or not Tuatara is an elim like I believe they are doesn’t negate the fact that the reasons given for the vote on Tuatara feel odd to me. For this reason, and the odd feelings their tone has given me in the past, I shall vote on Falcon.

I reviewed a bit more today and this is just sticking out like a sore thumb to me. Why is it, Heron, that you have now stated suspicion on Tuatara four cycles in a row, but have not yet left a vote on them?

(Hyena)

Edit: Adding a few more thoughts here. I think Heron/Tuatara could either be E/E or E/V. If both are elims, then it's clear Heron is just trying to distance. It's pretty blatant, though, and almost feels TWTBAW. E/V might be more likely (I might be a little biased here because I don't see the same suspicion of Tuatara as those voting on them). In that case, Heron is trying to cast shade without being a direct cause of a village exe.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Onyx Flamingo

[Plum Rhinoceros]

I do not like how the votes moved off of Hyena. Their post failed to soften my read of them at all and I'm honestly shocked that apparently I'm the minority in that. There's more than one elim; having an alibi for not submitting the kill isn't a reason not to exe someone. It mildly annoys me that the switch off was made entirely from my village reads, and I can't sus anyone for it, because it looks really sus.

Team Guess: Hyena, Heron, Mouse, Beagle, Falcon

Beagle's still in there but with much less confidence. I think the switch is a bad idea :P.

[Charcoal Hyena]

2 hours ago, Opal Lion said:

Not to put too fine a point on it, but someone who refuses to reveal they are your mate when you say:

As of right now they still haven't seen the message, so it's not that they are refusing, just that they are lazy/not quite active, I guess. They have sent me one message, though, so I know they aren't Mavset-im

@Plum Rhinoceros could you still explain what a Confbias is? I'm still confused on that.
Also, is your list of elim team in order of how likely you think they are to be elims, so Me highest likelyhood with Falcon as the lowest, or a random/some other order?

[Onyx Flamingo]

5 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Confbias

Confirmation bias. It's when you interpret evidence to intentionally back up your opinion.

[Plum Rhinoceros]

2 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

@Plum Rhinoceros could you still explain what a Confbias is? I'm still confused on that.

Oh yeah- confbias is when you read the posts of someone you suspect, looking for more reasons to suspect them instead of keeping an open mind. So when Penguin posted and you went out of your way to point out a flaw that I didn't think was even there, that's what came to mind.

12 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Also, is your list of elim team in order of how likely you think they are to be elims, so Me highest likelyhood with Falcon as the lowest, or a random/some other order?

It's in rough order... you and Heron are about the same, with Mouse following close, and Beagle and Falcon probably are switched but below all three of the others.

[Charcoal Hyena]

Ah, Thank you, to both of you. 

 

Well, I need to be leaving and I might be back for all of 5 minutes before rollover, but I might not. Hard to tell, so I figure it's best to get a vote out before I leave. Beagle for now. I don't have the strongest elim read on them, but I really don't have the strongest elim read on anyone at the moment, and it seems to be the best option to me, both to keep myself alive and to go after a potential elim. 

I'm guessing that I won't be back, though. So I won't be able to react to anything in the thread until the Night. 

 

[Plum Rhinoceros]

13 minutes ago, Charcoal Hyena said:

Beagle for now. I don't have the strongest elim read on them, but I really don't have the strongest elim read on anyone at the moment, and it seems to be the best option to me, both to keep myself alive and to go after a potential elim. 

Does no one else see the implications here

Hyena doesn't need to self pres for anything

[Opal Lion]

Cards on the table time.

Realistically, we are either 9/5 or 10/4. There are exotic scenarios where Villagers accept conversion. I'd rather not get into them right now.

If we are 9/5:

A mislynch today and a successful Elim kill tonight (not that difficult, given they've hit 2/3 warforms, meaning they have easy, killable targets left) means we walk into C5 with 7/5.

The Elim team wins at parity. (Or, as @Steeldancer told me when I asked, when the Village can't fight anymore. I'll come back to this in a second.)

All they have to do at 7/5 is to secure a mislynch (6/5) and to use the unblockable Mavset-im kill. 5/5, gg.

Game over.

If we are 10/4:

The situation is a bit less dire. A mislynch today and a successful Elim kill tonight puts us at 8/4 for C5, giving us one more cycle's breathing room. A mislynch and another successful kill puts us at 6/4. C6 becomes lylo. Failure at C6 and it's gg all over again.

Game over.

-

There are some ways to complicate this picture. As I said, if Villagers accept conversion, we could be in a numerically worse position than expected. 

Another complication is Dingo's alignment, and whether Dingo is filter-killed or replaced by a pinch-hitter. Suppose for the sake of argument that Dingo is filter-killed. In this scenario:

Village!Dingo means we are already 7/5 as of the end of this Turn, with the potential to be at 6/5 going into C5. A mislynch automatically loses us the game at D5. In a 10/4 scenario, Village!Dingo means we walk into N4 with 8/4, where a successful kill means we start C5 at 7/4. Another mislynch and another successful kill puts us at 5/4, with the game slated to end D4.

Evil!Dingo means the filter gods have granted us a reprieve. A mislynch puts us at 8/4 for N4, and a successful NK means we start C5 at 7/4. Evil Dingo in the 10/4 scenario is a little better - we go into the Night with 9/3, where a successful kill puts us at 8/3. We have another three cycles (6/3, 4/3, 3/3 - D7) to reach parity.

Steel phrased his wincon as "when the Village can't fight anymore." If you think about it, it's reasonable. There are no Coinshots in this game. Ties don't kill. At parity, the Village has to vote together in order to stop Elim lynch control. In the best case scenario where the Village votes together, they tie with the Elims and the NK goes through. (It's guaranteed to go through if they've been hanging on to the Mavset-im kill.) Game over. The one or two complications I can see which explains why Steel clarified that by parity, he meant Village inability to resist - suppose the Elims hit a warform. (Note that this is unlikely: the Elims know who the non-voters are, who the mateforms are, who one artform is. Hitting any of these players guarantees the kill.) But suppose they do. The game repeats itself again next cycle, with a tie, and this time, the NK goes through. Parity is essentially zugzwang.

There is only one scenario I think in which the Village can still resist at parity. If you're a Villager with mediationform, you should consider using it as lylo draws near. It might be the only thing between us and a parity loss.

Spoiler

And honestly I'd consider that a desperation move, so there is that.

-

I mention this because if you want to info lynch, please be aware we are at a stage where we are close to not being able to afford LAFO. If you're a voting Villager, please consider going after someone you actually really suspect.

I am partly guilty of this as I doubled up on Beagle. It's partly a gut thing, but also partly a hope I could at least provoke something readable by putting Beagle under pressure, though I admit I came late to this in the turn, probably because I like doing squats with Rhino  Part of this comes from a conclusion I have no choice but to draw:

Suppose that I still think Dragonfly (more strongly) and Vulture (more lightly) are Village. Suppose I now also think - lightly as well - that Rhino is Village. I know my own alignment.

Where are the Elims?

Once again, I find myself drawn to the peripherals. I can continue to scrutinise the loud players. Or I can accept for the moment my Village reads and move on to look and try to cast attention and pressure where it hasn't been going.

In fact, let's play a game. This game is called: Where The Frith Is Mavset-Im?

Here are the players who can't be Mavset-im, with high confidence: <Dragonfly, Lion, Rhino, Falcon, Weasel, Scorpion>

In short: mateform would require two mateform Elims for them to pull that lie off. Not impossible, but very unlikely. Dragonfly and Rhino have been mechanically confirmed as having a form. I predicted the artform results in the write-up and can decipher the Art.

Here are the players who can't be Mavset-im with moderate to moderately-high confidence: <Hyena, Vulture>

I don't think Hyena can fake a mateform claim. If they're claiming having a PM with a mate, then if the two actual mateform gemstone claimants read this, they should sound off. I think it would take a lot of luck for Vulture to get the forms researched right if challenged by the other scholarform.

Here are the players whom we can't rule out from being Mavset-im: <Heron, Beagle, Tuatara, Flamingo, Mouse.>

I am too null/lean very very light Village on Tuatara to want to LAFO them at this stage. Heron intimated having a role, and both Heron and Beagle have softed both warform and scholarform. In my view, if you're Mavset-im, softing something like warform is the way to go: in Beagle's case, it's insulated him from having to deal with too much scrutiny for two whole cycles. But why should someone softing warform be any less likely to be Mavset-im?

38 minutes ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

I do not like how the votes moved off of Hyena. Their post failed to soften my read of them at all and I'm honestly shocked that apparently I'm the minority in that. There's more than one elim; having an alibi for not submitting the kill isn't a reason not to exe someone. It mildly annoys me that the switch off was made entirely from my village reads, and I can't sus anyone for it, because it looks really sus.

Long story short, my own reason for going after Hyena boils down to what appears to be bad, peripheral voting on D1, and Elim behaviour profiling. I don't feel it's substantially strong but it's what I was feeling. I'm interested in why the post failed to soften your read on them: I take the point on the alibi but the tone of their post is what made me hesitate as I actually disagree with their alibi point. I feel as though I have slightly stronger reasons to go after Heron or Falcon, whereas for Beagle, it's largely gut at the moment, and a desire to see if pressure makes anything pop out.

Unfortunately, pressure only made Flamingo show up, and I suppose, you. I lightly Village read you, so join the "damnit, why" club I guess.

Ninja-ed Edited to add:

The thing is, what I don't like is that if we really knew who Hyena's mate was, we could very likely thin that pool further. Rhino is not in mateform, and if we're right on Tuatara, then it's possible to cull the Mavset-im (and so guaranteed Elim) pool even further. Now that I've said it, Mavset-im might try to skip town tonight, but we have PMs and we're not afraid to use them >:)

I just don't see the point in reticence at this point in time apart from a reluctance to out nonconsensually.

1 minute ago, Plum Rhinoceros said:

Hyena doesn't need to self pres for anything

Disagree.

He does now. Beagle, Hyena.

Edited July 30, 2021 by Opal Lion

[Steeldancer]

10 minutes left. I need some popcorn.