Long Game 1: In the Wake of the Koloss

[dyring]

the innkeeper was taken aback somewhat by the late claims.

 

"Phaw, beggar boy is saying whatever he can to get away from the large amount of votes wich are heading his way."

 

He then glances towards gambles

 

"And when beetle ends up spiked as I am sure he will, we know he wanted to protect gamble."

 

He then hesistantly adds

 

"and should he be innocent, almost impossible thou it is, we know the other claimant is a saboteur."

[loganmathewjohnson]

@ Darnam: For some reason, that doesn't ring true to me. You're asking people to trust you in a game where the point is to lie. To me, it seems like you're doing everything you can to delay Edgar's death, for at least another day. To me, that sounds like very Spiked reasoning. Sorry if I'm wrong, but at least for now, my suspicion is on you and Edgar... How much longer do we have to vote, exactly?

EDIT: @dyring... That's an excellent point too. Dang. How long do we have to vote? Now I REALLY need to know.

Edited January 9, 2014 by loganmathewjohnson

[Aether he/him]

@Aether: First, people are going to do what they do in this game for whatever reasons they feel are best. Please refrain from calling them stupid. Second, game theory is all about figuring out the levels. By your logic, if they all thought, "hey, let's all vote together, because no one would believe we'd all vote together! It'll throw off suspicion!" would be a smart move, since it seems to have suggested to you that they aren't the Spiked. At the end of the day, it accomplished the short-term goal of, "a villager died". I agree with you that it's hardly proof. I've read through your impressive compilation. Your conclusion, however, seem to be that four of the five people you suspect (yourself included) are all within the subset of people I suspect, so at the end of the day we seem to actually agree.

Yeah, it isn't fair to call such an action stupid. As you yourself points out, presuming that they did vote en masse for Grayv, they could have done so for any number of reasons.

 

I am not sure I can say that we are in complete agreement, however, as the overlapping isn't complete. But I get your point. We both pointed out a sub-group that in all likelihood contains one or two spiked villagers, which include some overlapping. Unfortunately, we are both in the suspected group of the other. 

 

Sidenote, from my experience with similar games, Villager or not I have been killed off a lot expressly because I am rather loquacious, which is one reason that during that first day, when I had nothing to say, I said practically nothing. I'm not sure I've ever seen evidence that people who talk the most are the killers, but I've seen evidence that people who talk the most get killed off by the Villagers.

The group (of Frenchmen, of all people) I've been playing with has apparently had a lot of back and forth with this, I've been told. Some games, the enemy would take a leading role in accusing others with long and well-reasoned arguments, and the next game, everyone would remember this and then target the most outspoken, but the Mafia would remember this and keep a low profile instead. After a while, you get a somewhat middle-ground were both the villagers and the Mafia are somewhat holding back, with members of the Mafia usually either completely taking the lead or taking a little step back subtly trying to influence the ones who take the lead. I've myself mostly played games belonging to the last category. My point is, there will be at least one very outspoken member of the Mafia. Usually.

 

In short, Aether, what are you conclusions? Do you believe your theory, which implicates yourself, to be that much more sound than my own? I offer you the same deal I offered Clancy. You seem to think that Edgar is suspicious, per your posts. If you'll vote with me against Beetle today, regardless of how it turns out I will vote for Edgar tomorrow.

 

Trust has to start somewhere. As Kelsier says, it's better to trust and be betrayed than to live your life in paranoid fear.

I hadn't really considered Beetle as a possible spiked villager before, but it stands to reason that either him or Edgar would be spiked. Or, if they are particularly devious, they both could be, hoping that we would stop suspecting Edgar if we find out that Beetle is spiked. Didn't Beetle already have the most votes for him when Edgar came forth as a Seeker?

 

I didn't take you for a Survivorist, but I'll trust you and your judgement (for now, at least) and vote with you today for Beetle. Tomorrow, I'll vote with you for Edgar. Even if one of them turns out to have been telling the truth, I don't think we could have trusted the word of either one at this point anyway.

 

EDIT: Added colour to my vote.

 

EDIT 2: Minor tweeks.

Edited January 10, 2014 by Aether

[Edgedancer he/him]

So this is turning out better than I expected for me, to be honest. Now I know I´m the Seeker, so Beetles claim is suspicious to me. The choice is playing it save and abstaining from voting or trying to give me safety and vote for him.

Given the extrem low chance that there are two Seeker that had rather bad luck with seeking I´m casting my vote for Beetle and turn mad with histerical laughter if he is also innocent.

 

Edgar spent the day silent in his home.

Death another one. Coud they still stop them at this point? Even worse, he woud most likely also have to kill again or maybe this time he woud be executed. That may be better, at the very least better than someone innoccent being killed.

The smith coudn´t claim innocence not after killing Gravy. Still no matter who who was next Edgar woud kill him, he had to, nobody else needs to sully their hands, so he will do it, he will do everything to help the others to survive.

The taste of bronze was still in his mouth and it stinged, afterall it was also the taste of betrayl and suspicion. Another sin and yet they don´t belive and why shoud they.

 

Hell I´m starting to feel sorry for Edgar. Not that I want to complain, tragedy makes for a good story.

[Oudeis he/him]

@ Darnam: For some reason, that doesn't ring true to me. You're asking people to trust you in a game where the point is to lie. To me, it seems like you're doing everything you can to delay Edgar's death, for at least another day.

 

...except that I was the first person today to start talking about who we should vote for. No one voted to kill Edgar until after I'd made my basic argument, and everything I've posted since has been either a deal, or an affirmation of my basic points. Also, I'd like to point out that Edgar is, in fact, on my list of suspects. As are you. If you want to tear down my arguments, feel free to do so, but all you're saying is, "your well-reasoned premise rings false to me for reasons I can't really explain, EVERYONE KILL HIM INSTEAD BASED ON MY GUT!" which... sounds pretty Spiked, to me.

 

And the point of the game is not to lie. The point is to learn who to trust. The Spiked begin with perfect knowledge of who is and isn't Spiked. The Villagers begin with the advantage of numbers. The way the Villagers win is to try to make logical deductions, make reasonable guesses, and find a way to band together. The way the Spiked wins is when every single person refuses to work together out of constant paranoia, while the team of Spiked kill them all.

 

I know that my method isn't going to guarantee us victory. If someone wants to suggest something that will, and can back it up with reason, I will abandon my plan and support it. Those who tell me I'm mistaken seem to be saying, "We can't know for certain that this is right, so let's just kill this guy" which is not any better a way to win than my plan.

 

I am not sure I can say that we are in complete agreement, however, as the overlapping isn't complete. But I get your point. 

 

Didn't Beetle already have the most votes for him when Edgar came forth as a Seeker?

 

I didn't take you for a Survivorist, but I'll trust (for now, at least) you and your judgement and vote with you today for Beetle. Tomorrow, I'll vote with you for Edgar.

 

(Modified to remove color, so as not to throw off anyone quickly scanning the page for votes)

 

I didn't mean to imply that we were in complete agreement, only that we were less far apart than it might seem. Myself excepted, your entire pool of suspects fit within mine.

 

I think Beetle did have two or three votes by the time Edgar announced his Seekerness, though I'd like to point out that the Spiked might well have a Soother and a Rioter. If so, it could take eight votes before we know that they can't "save" one of their own, ten if we get incredibly unlucky and they have a Mistborn pulled zinc. In short, I just want people to realize how imperative it is that we villagers band together. (Again, let me reiterate that these numbers are based on my own personal speculation as to how many Spiked there are)

 

Thank you for your trust. I realize it's a lot for a man to ask, especially since I can't guarantee that Beetle is even Spiked. He's simply on my list of suspects.

[Aether he/him]

Thank you for your trust. I realize it's a lot for a man to ask, especially since I can't guarantee that Beetle is even Spiked. He's simply on my list of suspects.

Well, you make good points, so I do not see any reason that we shouldn't band together. Even when we are on each other's list of suspects, it is better to band together and have a systematic approach to the game rather than just letting conusion and rampant accusations run the game. That would only end up helping the enemy.

 

Even assuming you're spiked, I have strong suspicions that Edgar is too (and slight suspicions that Beetle might be), so I see no great risk in allowing you to (potentially) sacrifice a comrade to avoid suspicion, and I assume you have made a similar calculation in my regard. And even if we were to conclude that we're just playing each other, we could always just turn on each other after having dealt with our common targets.

 

This is my reasoning, at least.

[Oudeis he/him]

Yay for inevitable betrayal!

[Kurkistan he/him]

@bartbug & Edgedancer

 

Given the remote possibility that both of you are Seekers, you should Seek each other tonight to find out. That way both of you would have to be Spiked to pull the wool over our eyes. The Coinshot should not target you in order to allow us to get this information, and the Lurcher can flip a coin on which of you to protect from the Spiked, to make them less likely to waste an attempted kill on you.

 

If the Spiked do manage to get one of you, then we'll find out that person's role, at the very least.

 

How to respond to outcomes:

 

If both survive the night; one spiked, one normal:

 

They'll both claim the other is a Spiked. We kill one, find out his role.

-Then we let the other make a few readings, hopefully kill a few targets to verify. Eventually kill him to ensure that he's actually a Seeker.

 

If both survive the night; both spiked:

 

They'll both say the other is a Seeker. We kill one to find out his role.

-If he's spiked, we obviously kill the other right off the bat; just leave it to the Coinshot, actually.

--Actually, now that I've written it this scenario will never happen. Even if both Beetle and Edgar are Spiked, they'll claim the other is Spiked just to save their own skins for a bit.

 

---

 

EDIT 2:

 

If both survive; both Seekers:

They'll both say the other is a Seeker, we kill one to verify, then treat the other with very very mild suspicion because of possible mistborn shenanigans. But the other is still probably legit.

 

---

 

If one survives the night; the other is dead and found to be a Seeker:

 

We kill the other, find out his role.

EDIT 3: We can wait a bit on this one too, actually.

 

If one survives the night; the other is dead and found to be not a Seeker:

 

We let the other live for a few nights and give readings, like in the first case. Then kill him for information.

 

----

 

Now this is all looking a bit bloody minded, isn't it? Recall, real Seeker, that you win if the village wins, regardless of whether your character survives the night. So your sacrifice would not be in vain.

 

The key here is that racking up enough verified "good guy IDs" will give the village a solid voting block of 100% trustworthy people that we can move forward from. On top of that, the Seeker might always luck out and hit a Spiked, allowing immediate verification of that claim: though be wary of Spiked pretending to be Seekers in this way, as they could sacrifice one of their own to get a mole in.

 

The Seeker is actually a much more "trustworthy" role than a Seer in a normal game of Werewolves: the Seeker can find out things about villagers that the werewolves do not know: the Spiked do no have perfect information in this regard. This means that the Seeker can tell us that Bob is a Thug and, if Bob is indeed a Thug, the Spiked were highly unlikely to be privy to that information. That gives us a bit more flexibility in verification.

 

---

 

EDIT: For instance: If the "Seeker" points to Jane and says "That's the Soother and a villager", then Jane can say "no I am not a Soother." If Jane is the Soother and is playing smart, she'll know that we're better off knowing about a fake Seeker than keeping the Soother anonymous, and will verify the Seeker's claim. This nearly insures that the Seeker is the real deal and not a Spiked mistborn. If we have two verified villager roles, than it's basically a sure thing at that point and we've got ourselves a real Seeker with no need to bloodily murder him/her.

 

The only way the Spiked could manipulate this is if they pointed (almost, if they have a mistborn) exclusively at each other to get their verifications. This will fall apart very very quickly and we can head it off by having one or two of the verified heroically die for the cause (and still win the game, remember that) to verify the Seeker's veracity.

 

----

 

-----

 

What I mean to say by all of this is that we should abstain from killing either Beetle or Edgar for today, if only so that the experiment can run its course.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Kurkistan

[loganmathewjohnson]

@Darnam:

Been thinking about what you said about knowing who to trust. Well, I myself am a Survivorist, and the words of the Survivor inspire me. While I am suspicious of you, I am MUCH more suspicious of Edgar, though the heat is off him momentarily. Trusting you to vote for him tomorrow, I vote Beetle.

 

EDIT: I fear not what the Spiked may do to me for my vote. The Lady Heir shall deliver. I lived in Luthadel once, and the one thing I miss about that Ash-Stained city is that there are many more followers of the Survivor there. Glad to find one here.

 

Edit II: Vote Rescinded

Edited January 10, 2014 by loganmathewjohnson

[Kurkistan he/him]

To reiterate:

 

If we let them both live to Seek in the night and tell us the next day, we have the potential to basically win the game in one fell swoop. If both are Seekers and both live through the night to tell us, then we will walk out of all of this with 1 bonifide, almost entirely trustworthy Seeker.

 

In any other scenario it essentially boils down to the same result as we get if we just kill one of them here and now in the vote, but the possibility of both being Seekers should stay your hands.

[dyring]

Or..

 

Beetle´s claiming to be seeker might not work, so he asked Kukri to help his fellow spiked!

 

We know to 99% that either beetle or Edge is spiked. Beetle seems way more likely.

 

Dyrings list of suspicions

 

1. Beetle (first turn vote was really just cause I didnt know who to pick on, so picked one who wasent likely to get enough votes;). Then I kept on it with the Rp about whipping while waiting for more info. The talk about several of the Gravy voters being spiked made it more likely, but still nothing that great.

Seeker mess made it very likely.

lots of attempted saves coming up once votes are beginning to tick in.... VERY likely.

 

2. Used to be mat, due to all the votes popping up on Gravy seemingly to save him. But Kukri just vent by up to second.

 

3. Mat

 

4. Edge (mostly in the unlikely case Beetle isnt.

 

 

And frankly, doing Kukri´s math, we are liklely to lose 2 villagers if we wait, and it will be quite near to as many live spiked as regulars...

Edited January 9, 2014 by dyring

[Oudeis he/him]

@Kurk:

 

Oh, you're right. It does, in fact, say that there can be more than one of certain roles. In games I've played of Mafia and Werewolf this has not been the case. I'm not sure I like it. It's hard enough being able to tell who is who, now knowing there can be zero, one, or even two of roles... how is anyone supposed to deduce anything, ever?

 

Still... nope. First, you don't give us any thoughts on who would be better to kill, and you can defend literally everyone with the "hey we can't prove he's guilty" defense. Second, there's a huge flaw in your plan. I realize this is far from a sure thing, but I think it's most likely that the Mistborn is Spiked, that he drew Steel, and that he just took a potshot at someone he knew was a Villager; now, unfortunately, he knows the person is the Lurcher, and he and his goons will probably gang up on that person tonight. Yes, I realize it's technically possible that this isn't what happened, but I've run through the other scenarios and they require a number of leaps of faith that this does not. This makes sense, those are simply possibilities.

 

So even if you're right, if the Lurcher protects either of the Seekers, the Spiked are just going to kill our Lurcher, and then our Seeker before he has a chance to detect anyone but the other Seeker. Let's say you're right. Let's say there's a chance they are both Seekers. If so, we will have literally one night where one Seeker will see the light of day and be able to confirm or deny exactly one person. At the end of this, we'll be down two Seekers and our Lurcher, and have gained almost nothing.

 

In addition, as I've said, who do you think we should kill then? Just pick someone at random?

 

My idea has merit. I know it's not foolproof but it's a plan with a solid basis. Killing off people at random, hoping that there's a best-case scenario that will leave us entirely unprotected with one single bit of information, is not a good trade-off against my plan.

 

Just one man's opinion.

[Kurkistan he/him]

I chose not to point fingers at who would be a better target (you and the others have done enough of that to provided us with a large pool, I think) so I could focus on who to not kill for what I think are very good reasons.

 

I also don't follow your logic with the Lurcher. Just as the village as a whole is best off killing someone every day, so too is the Coinshot best off killing someone every night. S/he obviously didn't do it the first night because no one had any information, but we can guess that the Coinshot would start trying to kill people every night after that. So the Coinshot has a good reason to target someone for some reason every night.

 

Beyond the improbability of the mistborn drawing steel, you also require the impossibility that the Coinshot chose not to act last night, since only one steel-kill was attempted. Therefore, it is highly likely that the mistborn was not the one shooting coins last night.

 

----

 

If we follow my dastardly ploy, here's what will happen:

 

-We will kill someone besides Edgar or Beetle today. Recall that only 1 of them, if either, is likely to be Spiked. That leaves a very large pool of other Spiked we have to take care of.

 

-We will kill either Edgar or Beetle tomorrow.

 

-We will potentially have a verified Seeker after that.

 

What you want to do is just kill Edgar or Beetle today, then someone else tomorrow, with no real hopes of verifying a Seeker at all. All that does is flip the order of operations at the expense of a chance of slam-dunking the game for the village.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Kurkistan

[dyring]

And if two non-spiked dies today instead of someone who is the most likely to be spiked, how many are then left?

 

You tactic is to wait with killing those most likely to be spiked. The more we wait, the closer to equal numbers do the spiked come.

 

We started with 14 people, guesses are 4 was spiked. A minimum 3 I´d say.

 

We are now 11, no spiked have been killed. So likely 7-4

If we wait as you wish, its good odds we have 1-3 dead propably non-spiked. Saying 2 thats makes 5-4. Then you want to wait a second day on that... Even if your way works and we know who´s spiked then, its to late. We have lost when there are more spiked then non-spiked.

 

*edit - Just to simplify for counters, I voted Beetle earlier, sticking to that.

Edited January 9, 2014 by dyring

[Quiver he/him]

I have to say, I find Beetle kind of suspicious. The fact he and Edgar, apparently, smoked virtually the same things seems a tad coincidental.

It isn't based on very much, but... This is another vote for beetle. If he's spiked, we've identified another possible spiker and found the true Seeker, and if he isn't, spiked the coinshot should be able to fix our mistake tonight.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Quiver

[Oudeis he/him]

I chose not to point fingers at who would be a better target (you and the others have done enough of that to provided us with a large pool, I think) so I could focus on who to not kill for what I think are very good reasons.

 

Telling us who NOT to kill doesn't help us, if you're not going to offer an alternative. I resent your implication that I'm doing something wrong by giving logical reasons to suspect people; that is, after all, the point of the game.

Dyring has made an excellent point. Waiting for your plan, gambling that we've actually got two Seekers, all to hold off for days that the Spiked will spend slaughtering us... we don't have that kind of time. Though we started with 16 people, so actually right now it's 9 Villagers to 4 Spiked. We still have very little wiggle room remaining.

 

Your plan is far-fetched, long, and an enormous gamble. I'm sorry, but you're not going to convince me to change my vote unless you can bring me something much more concrete. I've presented my reasoning as to why I think we should vote for Beetle; you think we shouldn't just in case he's not lying when he says, "don't kill me".

 

Also, Quinn, I believe votes are red, not blue.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Hm. This is a real pickle.

I for one am glad I have avoided any suspicions so far. I will bite the bullet coin and declare I am a Regular Villager.

And as far as suspicions go. Either Edgar or Beetle have to be a spiked. I just don't believe we would get two seekers. that would be awesome, but unlikely.
and if one of them are seekers, then they should have some clues for us. Maybe they've had bad luck with seeking and haven't found any spiked yet, but then they at least know who isn't spiked.

So we know both of them have been voting for non-spiked people.
My guess would be to look there for clues.

But we really have to make a good choice. One of our alleged seekers has to go.

New theory when looking back...
I may believe Beetle is good. He did call me out on being  regular village. Any information Edgar gave us was already known.
Beetle gave us information that wasn't know that played out to be true, verifying his seeker abilities in my mind.

Gambles walked into the bar, turning everybody's heads. He wasn't stumbling, he didn't have a drink in his hand, he was clean shaven and one look at his eyes and one could see full clarity in them.
"Yes," he said, addressing everybody in the bar at once, "I'm not drunk for once. This is more important than booze and gambling. I have good word from multiple dice games and with the recent turn of news, I think EDGAR is a spiked traitor!
 

[Kurkistan he/him]

First of all, I highly doubt it's 4 spiked. Games like this normally cap at 2 until the numbers get absurdly large, with a higher cap at 3 for big groups (like ours). I wouldn't expect 4 spiked until we got into the low 20's.

 

So 8-3 is our starting point right now. We have a bit of breathing room.

 

Also recall that the Spiked will be killing people for the next two nights no matter what. As long as one lives, we keep dying.

 

If we kill someone else on your list, then we have 7-3 if we get it wrong. The following morning, we get the results from the Seekers. Either way, we kill one of them.

 

If you're right about your current vote, then Beetle is Spiked. Fine. We kill Beetle tomorrow.

 

If he's Spiked, then he and Edgar will each say that the other is Spiked no matter what and we'll go about our days as if my experiment had never happened.

 

But if he's not Spiked and Edgar isn't Spiked, then both will say the other is a Seeker and we will have essentially guaranteed Edgar's trustworthiness.

 

 

At the end of all this, the village will have killed two people in as many days, one of whom you want to kill right now.

 

I say that we should kill whoever's next up on the list, the guy we would kill tomorrow, now, and hold off on Beetle for a day. That is all I am asking for and results in, at worst, the exact same situation killing Beetle today would yield. Even if Beetle is Spiked, killing just one of them today won't do anything different from killing one tomorrow.

 

@Darnam

 

Sorry if you read me as being accusatory there. I was simply trying to say that it's not like we don't have other people shady enough to vote for besides these two. And of course telling you who not to kill helps. It narrows the suspect pool.

 

EDIT: Example: If we had some role who's only ability was to stand up and say "I'm not evil!" and provide proof for it, then it would be immeasurably helpful if, in a clutch moment, he removed himself from the pool of suspects.

 

----

 

To re-reiterate: Killing a Spiked this very moment will do us no good versus killing him tomorrow. If we kill Beetle now, we'll have to kill X tomorrow, neh? So why not kill X now and Beetle tomorrow? The only risk is if spiked!Beetle has a powerful nighttime role.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Kurkistan

[Quiver he/him]

Fixed the colour balance, my mistake.

Gamma, I agree that the information both gave was suspect. Honestly, part of my problem is that I don't know how reliable you are as a regular villager; hence voting for Beetle. If he's innocent, your in the clear, if he isn't...

Well, aside from anything else, if we kill Beetle and it's another damnation villager, I'll out my role in the forum. Might give us another solid base to be voting from.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Quiver

[dyring]

If we kill beetle and hes actually a seeker, then we got the first confirmation of regular villager(that is still alive), that is gamble, and we are 99% sure that Edgar is spiked.

 

If we kill beetle and hes a spiked, then we are 99% sure that gamble is spiked and Edgar is a seeker. In addition Kukri are very likely to be spiked.

 

Both good results tbh.

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Dangit. I didn't expect the possibility of not being believed.
damnation you game of lies and subterfuge! Us honest gamblers don't get believed. Ever.

I should have asked Edgar to seek me tonight to verify what I am. But I guess we just have to wait and see how it goes.

My vote for Edgar still stands. As my logic says above, Edgar only gave us already commonly known info. Even if Beetle was a spiked, he took a guess on calling me a regular villager. But since I'm saying he's right (you'll have to believe me. And I know any defense I make on my behalf of avoiding suspicions will just in turn make me more suspicious), there is some small sliver of credibility.

I am willing to put myself on the line. If Beetle dies and is a spiked, I will go to the block (even though I'm innocent). We'll just call it a Gamble.

 

edit: fixed edgars name so its not red. my vote for him is still in my prior post.

 

Edited January 9, 2014 by Gamma Fiend

[Oudeis he/him]

Note: Claincy, I'd appreciate if you put your outdated vote for me in green, kthnkx. Makes a man a bit nervous seein' his name all red like blood like that.

 

Right now, by my count, we've got seven people voting for Beetle. Kurk, I don't think you've got a point. You keep acting as though it's likely that we'll let them both go, they'll both survive predation by the Spiked, and will both confirm each other. Every step of your plan is massively unlikely, and there's enormous risk that we simply lose everything. It's been a struggle getting a coalition that's resistant to Rioting/Soothing as it is, and I'm not going to try dismantling it, and redirecting everyone, in the next seven hours, on your slim hope that we've been blessed with a pair of Seekers.

 

Also, gamma, I would suggest only putting your vote in red once. Otherwise, it probably confuses anyone tabulating.

 

Porridge? Wilson? Beetle? Kukri? Maill? Any of you want to give us a hint how you plan to vote?

 

Also, kurk: most games I've played, there've been a quarter werewolves. I don't think Meta is planning on telling us how many Spiked there are, but it's not safe to assume that there are only 3.

[Edgedancer he/him]

Im gonna drop in short befor going to sleep and point out That the Spikes know who the villagers are so as Long as they dont state a roll saying x is a villager is not a guess for them but instead verified Information and a rather Safe Way to get an ally.

[Kurkistan he/him]

@Darnam

 

Well, if you're so ver-

 

No. Crem it. I was about to give in because everyone else seems so stubborn about this, but I can dig in my heels too. Also, we have 19 hours, not 7. It's a 36 hour time period.

 

To address your points in order: (I'm out on the town for a few hours after this, so no follow up)

 

The "three unlikelies":

1. The unlikelihood of us not killing one of them.

This is entirely in our hands, so I don't really see it as appropriate to include in a probability assessement.

 

2. The unlikelihood of both surviving the night.

I've already said why both surviving the night is relatively likely.  If the Lurcher flips a coin, he has a 50% of protecting whichever the Spiked would go after. So the spiked either potentially waste a night (huge win for us) or the Seeker lives. I also have yet to see you tell me why it's so very likely that the real Coinshot was on vacation last night while the mistborn drew Steel.

 

3. The unlikelihood that both are Seekers.

I agree that this is unlikely.

 

---

 

Looking at those three, it's not impossible that my scheme will work out. And, to say it for the tenth time, we lose almost nothing by just waiting a night to kill whichever "Seeker" you like the least. Spikers gonna' kill no matter what we do today.

 

The only risk is that Beetle has a high-power role, and that's a small risk that I'm willing to weigh against the chance we have 2 Seekers.

 

@Edgedancer

 

The Spiked are not normally privy to roles, while Beetle was kind enough to tell us that Gambles is not only a villager, but an un-powered one.

Edited January 9, 2014 by Kurkistan

[Gamma Fiend he/him]

Not true. I could have been a thug, coinshot, or lurcher. or Mistborn even, I don't think it's verified that he's a spiked or not.
So even if he was a spiked, it was still a gamble to call me just a regular villager. I could easily have refuted it and claimed to be otherwise if I in fact was.

So I guess in essence, even if he is a spiked, I guess I will reward him for a successful gamble. What can I say, it's in my characters nature. XD

But I don't think he is a spiked.