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Posted

Am I doing right or wrong? My heart feels so numb

This is much too hard for me; I can't do the sum.

 

Beetle, you do have a slight point, but not much of one. I'm just going to stick with my guns, rather than try to change this whole thing. I am sorry, and I would feel much better if I were certain of anything, but I'm not. I'm just going with logic and probability here.

Posted

Stick with your guns. THat's fine. Your logic is about as sound as it could get, given what you know. But you should let Aether and Clancy choose who they want to vote on, let them stick to their guns. 

Posted

Voting as a block is the best idea. I'm not opposed to block-voting as a whole, my objection is that I'm pretty sure the ones who did it yesterday are evil. It's a political tactic known as "log-rolling". They're helping me out today, I'm helping them out tomorrow. For me, sticking with my guns doesn't just mean I vote my one vote, it means I try to bring about the circumstance I want to see. I have reached a compromise with Aether and Clancy; they're getting my help tomorrow in exchange for their help now.

 

Every villager voting on their own only helps the Spikes. The villagers win by sticking together. That's how this game goes.

 

Finally; Clancy, I hope you get this message before the timer runs out. Please change your vote. I'm just saying, if this is your way of trying to game the system, and you're counting on just claiming tomorrow, "oh gee, sorry, I totally wanted to vote with you, it was a mistake," I'm just gonna tell you right now that you'll have to be very convincing to get me to buy such a story.

Posted (edited)

Dude. Darnam, I just reread your post. The "logic" is basically any of the seven who voted for Grayv (which makes some sense) should have a high chance of being guilty. And then you arbitrarily chose me. What?

If I remember correctly, the one who made the pivotal vote, the one that actually swung things around, was Edgar. So, now we have someone who has been suggested from a variety of places, with multiple pieces of evidence. First, he is (probably) lying about being a Seeker. Second, Jason died after he suggested Edgar. This could be a coincidence, but I doubt it. Finally, we have this about him being the one who changed the vote that ultimately killed Grayv. Edgar works with my logic and your logic.

 

EDIT: Additional evidence for Item number 1: He's not telling us who he tried to Seek on night one, just that it was "inconclusive". 
"

Edited by bartbug
Posted (edited)

First up, I apologize for not changing the colour of my original vote it wasn't part of some master plan, I just completely forgot, I've fixed it now.

Second note is that I am in Australia and work throughout the morning, that last post I did was right before I went to bed and I have only just got back and finished reading through the thread, I wasn't ignoring you and Aether reminding me to change it multiple times, I just hadn't come online yet.

 

Now more than ever I believe that Edgar is more likely to be spiked than Beetle, though it is also possible that they both are. However I will stick with our voting block agreement, if we break that now we fall into disorganized chaos again.

 

Edit: To state clearly, I am in favour of switching our block vote to Edgar today and Beetle tomorrow but leave the final choice to Darnam still.

Edited by lord Claincy Ffnord
Posted (edited)

Little Wilson: If you can help me, that would be tremendously appreciated.

Kukri: I know that you want to test who is the real seeker, or if we both are. If you preserve me (I bet that you can force a tie ;)) then I will follow through with your plan.

 

EDIT: I want any non voters to know that in actuallity, their votes are pivotal. This is going to be close as it is. By not doing anything, you're effectively voting for me to die.

Edited by bartbug
Posted (edited)

@Darnam

 

I think we're both (well, me, at least) suffering a bit from "I'm quite obviously right, so why would anyone disagree?!" syndrome, so I apologize if I became somewhat antagonistic. ;)

 

Since it looks like nothing's going to change, I'll abandon my scheme as dead in the water. I reserve the right to laugh in a bitterly ironic fashion if we find out later that it would have saved the day, though.

 

I vote for Edgar because of the reasons Gamma has given. I'll switch to whatever the majority is half an hour or so before the deadline if it comes down to the wire, but I think Edgar is the better choice of the two just now.

 

@Bartbug

 

The scheme honestly won't work if we don't have Edgar to test you tonight, so it doesn't matter. I suppose it's a moot point now anyway.

Edited by Kurkistan
Posted

Kurk, my point was that if you bring about a tie, than Edgar and I won't be dead. Or you can help me win, which I am just as fine with.

Posted

Dude. Darnam, I just reread your post. The "logic" is basically any of the seven who voted for Grayv (which makes some sense) should have a high chance of being guilty. And then you arbitrarily chose me. What?

 

This is officially the last time I will reply to you, especially if you yet again ask for something I've already gone over. If you read the post I linked to last time, I explain why exactly I picked you. I'll go over it this one last time; from now on, I'm ignoring you unless you have something new to say, or ask a question I haven't already answered. It looks like you're just yelling and making noise, hoping to make me look bad, unless you truthfully just don't care enough to read the posts I link you to before you start hurling accusations.

 

Obviously, a few actual Villagers hopped on the "let's kill Grayv" wagon; ironically this means that the later votes are more likely to be human, because by then it had "bandwagon" momentum, meaning we should look at the earlier ones. Quinn voted first for Gray. Maybe he was Spiked and it was all part of your plan that way, or maybe he was human, and you, as a Spiked, decided to guarantee that a villager died by using Quinn's own vote in your favor. Yes, I realize it's still a bit arbitrary and no, I'm not at all sure it's true. But that's my reasoning, as I've posted up on this forum ever since this day has been a few hours old. Anyone who wished to refute it has now had a day in which to do so.

 

First up, I apologize for not changing the colour of my original vote it wasn't part of some master plan, I just completely forgot, I've fixed it now.

Second note is that I am in Australia and work throughout the morning, that last post I did was right before I went to bed and I have only just got back and finished reading through the thread, I wasn't ignoring you and Aether reminding me to change it multiple times, I just hadn't come online yet.

 

Now more than ever I believe that Edgar is more likely to be spiked than Beetle, though it is also possible that they both are. However I will stick with our voting block agreement, if we break that now we fall into disorganized chaos again.

 

Edit: To state clearly, I am in favour of switching our block vote to Edgar today and Beetle tomorrow but leave the final choice to Darnam still.

 

Clancy: I am very sorry, I am coming off as far more belligerent than I mean to. This game is far more frustrating than I had thought it might be. I find people demanding I explain myself over and over, while I keep trying to link them to all of the previous times that I have explained myself. But that is no excuse. I have long held that the measure of a man is how he deals with stress, and I have not been dealing with it well. I apologize for how I've treated you.

 

I am a poor, humble villager, no powers, there's nothing special about me. I tried to point out a few logical steps, seeing if anyone would agree with me, and for my trouble people are yelling for my blood, and their stated purpose is "he is trying to play the game." Best case scenario, I'll likely be dead within days, though hopefully I'll have given the other villagers the help they need to win in my memory. Worst case, I'm simply wrong, which I admit is more than possible. If doing nothing were a viable option, I would advocate that, but it isn't. It's possible my actions will result in the death of two good men, two valuable tools in the fight against the Spiked.

 

I honestly see no clear path to victory. The Spiked will kill again and again every night, and we've barely scraps of information with which to fight back. It turns into a guessing game on our part at best, or a witchhunt at worst, as people try to "read faces" over the internet and across time zones. If anyone offers a plan that isn't predicated upon assumptions, speculation, and "well it's what I would have done" or "well they'd never be that stupid", I am all for it.

Posted

here's the tally I've seen so far:

 

Voting for Beetle (7): Darnam, Clancy, Dyring, Aether, Edgar, Mat, Quinn.

 

Voting for Edgar (4): Gambles, Maill, Beetle, and Kukri.

 

No votes yet: Wilson, Porridge.

 

Unless people start changing cast votes, we've got an unassailable majority for Beetle with (I believe?) 13 hours to go.

 

I honestly don't know what any of that means, except that at this point Beetle would need to change a lot of votes, and possibly get the aid of emotional allomancy, to survive.

 

I wish I was much more certain that this was the right thing to do. All I'm certain of is, with the information we've got, it's the best we can do.

Posted

@Darnam, No need to feel that bad about it, I was just explaining my situation so it was clear what was going on :)

I have supported your path because it was a reasonable plan and idea. In almost every game of this type I have played sooner or later one or more people step out as you have, and inevitably some people fight back at them. Some perhaps because they are spiked, some perhaps because they think you are spiked and some others who may simply disagree with your plan. Inside the game being obstinant and overstating your case is a valid tactic regardless of what your role is, though unfortunately this can sometimes lead to the game getting a tad more toxic than would be ideal as people argue.

 

I won't go over my points again (unless someone specifically asks me) or ask you to go over yours as I believe we both fully understand eachother and have simply drawn differing conclusions on which of Beetle and Edgar is more suspicious.

Posted

Would you mind changing your vote to Edgar, then, at least until a few hours before the deadline? Really, we're more consensus-building than voting at this point, since nothing's locked in until 13 hours from now.

Posted

In response to Darnam: (By the way, rest of the game, if the tineye was still alive, I would be using PM for this. Sorry to make a such a two person conversation take place)

 

I'm sorry that you feel like you've already gone over this, and in all honesty, I think I might be missing something. To be clear, I am only reading from this one post that you have linked to.

 

 

The Spiked have one particular advantage. They know who the other Spiked are, and who the normal Villagers are. They, more than any Villager, have the ability to gang up.

 

In the daytime voting, only two people got more than a single vote. I humbly propose that it might be a likely scenario that they pooled their votes to ensure that a villager died. I realize this isn't the only possible scenario; once it became likely that Gray would die, the Spiked might have dispersed, left him to his fate since they knew he was a Villager. Still, it's all I've got to go on.

 

I therefore recommend to the Seeker that he start using his power upon this list of people. I think it's the quickest way that you're likely to find a Spiked. Once you find one, announce it, and trust the Lurcher to keep you alive. If we kill him and he's a Spiked, we'll believe you. If we kill him and he's not, we'll know you're evil, and we'll kill you next.

 

Unless someone has a better suggestion, I think we should try to focus on the seven who voted for Gray. Quinn did it first, then Beetle, then Wilson. At more-or-less random, I'm going to say Beetle. My thought is, Gray might have been voting on his own. If Beetle were Spiked, picking someone who already had a vote, that Beetle knew wasn't Spiked, would be a smart play, and if I'm wrong and Quinn is Spiked, then Beetle was helping a buddy.

 

So. This is my reasoning, and my vote is for Beetle.

This is the pertinent part of your post, right? I can read, sometimes. Maybe? Any, onwards.

 

 

Dude. Darnam, I just reread your post. The "logic" is basically any of the seven who voted for Grayv (which makes some sense) should have a high chance of being guilty. And then you arbitrarily chose me. What?

And this is the post that broke the Darnam's back. I guess that I didn't say this in a very clear (or polite) way, as it is so easy to do on the internet. What I was trying to communicate, I believe, is that Edgar had a role in Grayv's death that is more suspicious and Spikey than mine. I understand you now, and I think the problem was mostly miscommunication from my part. And for the making lots of noise? Yes, you could say that. I feel like I am drowning right now, and in all honesty, I will pull at anything to keep myself above water.

Sorry for any problems, and this should be my last post unless something new comes up. No hard feelings.

Posted

So. After reading all of that....scintillating material, let me add my own thoughts.

1. We're throwing out a LOT of accusations and suspicions. I agree with whoever (Darnam?) said this game was about trust, but there's really not a lot of it going on. Anyone want to defend Beetle or Edgar? Better be ready to have someone accuse you of being Spiked (Kurk, Gambles).

2. I like Kurk's idea about pitting the Seekers against each other. However, I'd tweak it a bit. For one, we don't need the Seekers to seek each other. We just need them to seek. So we could have two of us volunteer to be seeked (sought?). Beetle goes for one, Edgar goes for the other. We'd have to trust that a Spiked doesn't volunteer (although I don't think it would really behoove them to do so, unless they planned on killing said seeker in the night, but that would put suspicion on them....). I'd also leave the Lurcher open to protect themselves, since people seem convinced the Lurcher protected themselves last night against the Coinshot/Mistborn. However, if they didn't, the Lurcher could protect whoever they wanted (including themselves, or one of the Seekers).

However, that idea isn't going to work. For obvious reasons.

3. Going back to my first point about trust. I do not trust Darnam at all. And it has nothing to do with him not trusting me or even being the most vocal. It has to do with him saying others should have a show of good faith, and vote with him to kill someone who there's not conclusive evidence against at all. Why should we trust you? So your arguments have been logical, but this game isn't just about logic. There is a LOT of psychology to it (which is a part of the game I've never been good at, because I don't get psychology in the slightest). Oh, so you'll vote Edgar tomorrow, will you? And that's big? One vote? To kill a villager? Your logic now leaves a bit to be desired, in my opinion.

4. Quinn's "paranoia" post has me suspicious of him. That entire post hinted strongly at Spiked, but....it would be pointless to vote for him.

5. I trust Beetle. He's the only person at this point that I actually trust. I'm vaguely trusting of Kurk and Maill, but....Beetle's the only one I legitimately trust. I honestly think he's the Seeker, and it's solely because he pegged Gambles as a regular villager. Granted, both of them could be lying, but....I doubt it. I have to trust someone at some time, and he's the only one that seems deserving of it right now.

6. Edgar. At first, his confession to being Seeker got me thinking he had to be telling the truth, and when he admitted that his first seek was inconclusive, I figured it might be because he thought the smoker was involved. Which is still possible. But he hasn't come forward yet, and until he does (assuming he does), he's the one I'm leaning most toward.

Anyway. I'm hesitant to really lock anything in place right now, but.....I'm gonna say Edgar just in case I don't get back around here (which I don't think will happen, but you never know). Regardless, if Edgar survives (as I think he will, which is REALLY unfortunate to the state of my trust), we're gonna need to test his seeking skills.

And Darnam, before you say I'm accusing you of being wrong to ask people to trust you, and then I go begging for your trust: I'm not. Go ahead and vote however you want. Heck, if you want to vote for me, go right ahead. I'm on your list too. In fact, it might actually be better to kill me than kill a Seeker. I have no powers, so we won't be losing anything.... But I personally think everyone should vote however they want, rather than be forced into voting for someone they don't really think is Spiked, simply to get someone tomorrow. If tonight goes how I fear it will, we're gonna lose a couple villagers, and that'll put us on the fast track to losing. But if that's how it happens, that's how it happens.

Posted

VOte count for anyone interested:

Voting for Beetle (7): Darnam, Clancy, Dyring, Aether, Edgar, Mat, Quinn.

 

Voting for Edgar (5): Gambles, Maill, Beetle, Little Wilson, Kukri.

 

Ha. Looks like a soother/ rioter could mess some things up. Porridge has yet to vote.

Posted

Would you mind changing your vote to Edgar, then, at least until a few hours before the deadline? Really, we're more consensus-building than voting at this point, since nothing's locked in until 13 hours from now.

 

No. I've made up my mind. Give me a solid reason to change it and I will. I have told you the holes I see in your logic. If it makes you feel better, I'm committed to voting for him tomorrow.

 

1. We're throwing out a LOT of accusations and suspicions. I agree with whoever (Darnam?) said this game was about trust, but there's really not a lot of it going on. Anyone want to defend Beetle or Edgar? Better be ready to have someone accuse you of being Spiked (Kurk, Gambles).

Thank you, yes, that was me. I'm not sure I agree with you. Aether, Clancy and I are three people who seem to trust each other, and what we've got seems to be working. Also, I've accused not one single person of being Spiked just for disagreeing with me. I've even stated that I don't know for sure Beetle is Spiked, I just think that logically he's got a better chance than anyone else I can think of. If you'd like to provide me a reason better than "He just feels suspicious to me," you might well change my mind. I have, however, been accused many times of being Spiked, largely because "Why else would he want to use logical debate to build a coalition in a game whose sole point is that we all vote together?" I'm not sure where you're getting this "everyone who defends them gets accused of being Spiked", but it doesn't match the reality I've seen in this thread. Please feel free to link me to the posts where people (for serious, not in RP) accused anyone of being Spiked, just for defending Beetle or Edgar.

 

I'm not going to point out the flaws in you "Point 2" plan, because you yourself end it by saying that you know it wouldn't work; presumably, then, you see the flaws in it already.

 

3. Going back to my first point about trust. I do not trust Darnam at all. And it has nothing to do with him not trusting me or even being the most vocal. It has to do with him saying others should have a show of good faith, and vote with him to kill someone who there's not conclusive evidence against at all.

Tell me someone we do have conclusive proof against, and I'll change my vote right now. I'll petition everyone in this game to do so, as well. The fact is, no one is saying we've got conclusive proof against Beetle; I've had to point out a half-dozen times that I've never said that. But if we sit around and wait and don't kill anyone until we know for sure, the Spikes will whittle us down to nothing by the time we make a move.

 

Why should we trust you? So your arguments have been logical, but this game isn't just about logic. There is a LOT of psychology to it.  Oh, so you'll vote Edgar tomorrow, will you? And that's big? One vote? To kill a villager? Your logic now leaves a bit to be desired, in my opinion.

...Psychology isn't the opposite of logic. If you have a real psychological reason to support an argument, I would listen to it. My arguments are logical, and as you point out you're terrible at psychology. And then you don't like my logic because... I have told people that in exchange for them voting like me, I'll vote like them? My logic is fine. I feel like you could stand to have the concept re-defined.

 

Honestly, I'm slightly offended by this phrase of your post. First, your tone is needlessly condescending and antagonistic. Second... um, yes? One vote? In exchange for one vote? What exactly is wrong with that? And what exactly do you mean by the phrase, "To kill a villager?" You're presumably talking about either Beetle or Edgar. If you have proof, not just your personal gut feeling, that one or both of them are Villagers, feel free to share. If not, please don't talk like it's a foregone conclusion.

 

And finally, none of what you say at the end has much to do with my logic. My premise is sound, in that the only arguments I've heard against it are things like, "you want to vote someone dead? You monster! I vote you dead!".

 

5. I trust Beetle. He's the only person at this point that I actually trust. I'm vaguely trusting of Kurk and Maill, but....Beetle's the only one I legitimately trust. I honestly think he's the Seeker, and it's solely because he pegged Gambles as a regular villager. Granted, both of them could be lying, but....I doubt it. I have to trust someone at some time, and he's the only one that seems deserving of it right now.

So you admit... it's a gut feeling. You simply like Beetle, and you don't like me. You yourself admit that there's absolutely no proof, but you "have to trust someone" so you just picked one. That's fine. But please don't treat other people like they're being "fooled" just because they listen to logical debate, rather than their hearts.

 

And Darnam, before you say I'm accusing you of being wrong to ask people to trust you, and then I go begging for your trust: I'm not. Go ahead and vote however you want. Heck, if you want to vote for me, go right ahead. I'm on your list too. In fact, it might actually be better to kill me than kill a Seeker. I have no powers, so we won't be losing anything.... But I personally think everyone should vote however they want, rather than be forced into voting for someone they don't really think is Spiked, simply to get someone tomorrow. If tonight goes how I fear it will, we're gonna lose a couple villagers, and that'll put us on the fast track to losing. But if that's how it happens, that's how it happens.

I realize you're not asking for our trust. What you are doing, however, is saying, "I trust this guy just because I feel like it," and then acting like other people have made an obvious mistake by trusting me based on logic and reason. No one is being forced to vote for anyone. They understand that the villagers being in chaos is how the Spikes win. They realize that being part of a coalition, that working together and building trust, is more important than some short-term goal. Voting for the person you want, but having them survive because everyone scattered their votes, does not help anyone but the Spiked.

You asked why anyone should trust me. It's because it has to start somewhere. If no one leads, then no one can follow. Maybe Beetle isn't Spiked. When we work together to take down Edgar tomorrow, maybe he won't be Spiked, either. But we will be three people who know that we keep our word. We will be a community, we will be a block of people who listen to reason and observe actual clues. We will be stronger for it.

The Spiked have one huge advantage over the Villagers; trust. They know who is on their own team and who isn't. We can't know, so we have to trust. Perhaps these two guys will burn me, but I'd rather get burned, and therefore learn that they are Spiked, than stand all by myself waiting for the Spiked to pick us off one-by-one.

Posted (edited)

@Darnam

 

I was actually talking to Claincy there, though you're free to change your vote too. ;)

 

Also, I know that I've been accused of Spikitude for my arguments. As Wilson says, I think Gambles got called out at some point as well.

 

I think the "obvious reasons" Wilson was referring to were those of no one else going along with it more than anything else, but I agree with both of you that it's too late by now.

Edited by Kurkistan
Posted

Why is it too late? By my counts, if one person secedes from their side, then it's a draw, and neither Edgar or I die. Of course, then we have a draw, which is already known to be bad, but it's up to (us?) to decide if that's worth it.

Posted (edited)

I do not want a draw. I don't think anyone but you (who has some very good but very personal reasons to want one) wants a draw. Also the Soother/Rioter will likely come into play at that point.

Edited by Kurkistan
Posted (edited)

Kurk, that was precisely what I meant. It's obvious by this point that either Beetle or Edgar are going to die, so advocating a path in which neither would is beyond pointless, even if it's the better course of action.

I personally don't see the point of us killing the seekers. One of them is a seeker. And I'm fairly certain that it's Beetle. My evidence isn't just a gut feeling. He provided proof in the form of Gambles. Sure, he hasn't found a Spiked yet, but we've got what? 14 people in the game at this point? Something like that? With a maximum of 4 Spiked? And he's only had 2 nights. And it's not like the Seekers (assuming both are in fact Seekers) could coordinate, and it seems like they both seeked (is it sought in the case? I'm genuinely curious. What is the past tense of Seek in Mistborn terms?) Jason last night. The point is, we're about to kill our seeker--our only REAL chance of figuring out who the Spiked are, without random (albeit logical) guessing.

You don't have to go along with me and kill Edgar. However, if you're actually a villager, you probably aren't making the wisest decision in choosing to kill Beetle. It's not about finding conclusive evidence that he's Spiked. It's about there being PRETTY SOLID evidence that he's not.

Also, sorry about the demeaning, antagonistic part. As I re-read that, I did get rather sarcastic. That wasn't my intention. And the "To kill a villager" was in reference to Beetle. And I feel it necessary to point out that just because you're controlling how Aether and Clancy are voting doesn't mean they trust you. I'm pretty sure both of them have stated that they don't; they're just voting because someone has to show good faith first. Neither of them (from what I've seen) suspect Beetle the most. Clancy would rather vote for Edgar today, I'm pretty sure. You're forcing them into killing someone they don't actually want to kill right now. If you go back and read their posts, you'd see that.

After having said all that, I'm not saying you're Spiked. I'm actually fairly certain you're not. But that doesn't mean I trust you. Because I don't--mostly because I don't agree with what you're trying to do right now. Killing our best chance of winning, simply because you want someone to die. Let people vote the way they want, and someone would. It'd probably be Edgar, in fact, unless the Soother or Rioter did something (assuming either are Spiked).

And as for a draw. Assuming both Edgar and Beetle are Seekers, I would rather have a draw and have them both out there seeking tonight than just one. But I seriously doubt that's going to happen.

EDIT: Kurk already linked to the post where dyring accused him. Here's the one where Gambles was suspected. Quinn leaves the sentence hanging, but the implication is clear. If Beetle turns out to be Spiked, Gambles' name will be among those for the chopping block. Probably with me and Kurk as well, I'd imagine. Definitely me.

 

Gamma, I agree that the information both gave was suspect. Honestly, part of my problem is that I don't know how reliable you are as a regular villager; hence voting for Beetle. If he's innocent, your in the clear, if he isn't...

Edited by little wilson
Posted

Meta, is there some way you could Pm Porridge and see if he wants to vote or is this just part of the game? How much longer is there anyway?

Just so it's clear, if Edgar is killed and is Spiked, I will be voting for Aether tomorrow. If Beetle is, Wilson is my vote. Sorry to you two. This might get me killed tonight for announcing my votes, but, either way. If neither Edgar or Beetle is killed, I'm voting for Edgar. If Beetle is killed and innocent, I'm voting for Edgar again, or vice versa. If both are killed and are not spiked or can prove that they aren't spiked I'm voting for Quinn. These are my votes for tomorrow on all the scenarios I see.

Posted

If Beetle is, Wilson is my vote.

Called it! Oddly enough, this makes me absurdly happy.

Also, I just want to say that this game is a LOT easier when you're playing in person. I've played a ton of Werewolves the last couple of months (especially on New Years Eve/Day), and maybe it's just the group I play with or that it's in person, but it's a lot easier to figure out who's guilty when they're sitting right in front of you. Playing online ups the difficulty to an almost insane level.

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