Long Game 13: Traitors on the Plains

[leiftinspace]

So looks like I'm still in the lead and so I got nothing to lose at this point. It has been mentioned that when etam was killed it looked like someone tried to use progression on him but failed. I can verify that is the case because I am an Edgedancer and was the one who tried to save him. Unfortunately the attack was enhanced by gravity so he died anyway. Bort, if he was alive, could have verified for me because I told him before the write-up came out that there would be some hint of progression and that I used it. if you recall, the write-up took awhile to come out that night. I know it looks sketchy, my only real defense being somebody I'm suspected of killing, or at least having something to do with his death, but that's all that I got.

[leiftinspace]

Now that I have that posted, I'll speculate on the ramifications. There has definitely been one gravity enhanced attack this game, which means there is certainly a skybreaker or windrunner diagramist. it looks like the attack that killed bort may have been enhanced by gravity as well, although I could be reading too much into the write up. Still, that means that the eliminators have at least two radiants. I don't see them having more than that or they would be ridiculously overpowered, but it's still a possibility i guess. my thoughts are that the diagramists have a windrunner and a dustbringer, or a windrunner and a skybreaker. I don't think it likely that they have two kill roles, because again that would make them ridiculously overpowered, but it's a possibility, Anyway, in case I do still get lynched, I wanted all that to get out there. If I survive this night, on the off chance there is someone else with progression i wouldn't mind someone using it on me, cuz I might need it.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Thanks Paranoid King. (Do you mind being called PK? Bridge Boy, do you mind BB?)

I'm going to put my vote back on Macen. There's that issue from the last night cycle, which I am still wary about. His insistence about going after the PM people is starting to feel like he knows something. Given the level of focus on the PM recipients (well, PK and Leif mostly, but I imagine Ren and I will come under similar scrutiny should they both turn up innocent) I would expect some more forceful voices trying to divert discussion if there was a Diagrammist under the microscope.

And then there's this:

I am pretty sure you are all about to lynch a Refugee. I just hope it's not one of our Radiants.

So...lynch the PM recipients, because there's probably someone evil there. Except Leif, who was leading the lynch at 4 votes at that point? I'm confused.
 

If Macen is in fact a Diagrammist, then I also suspect Feligon, who has been trying to close a lynch with several hours (and evidently decent amounts of discussion) to go.

[Alvron]

Updated Vote Tally:

 

Macen (4) : Twei, Araris, Paranoid King, Twei, Alvron

Ren (1) : Macen

Paranoid (3) : Hero, Maill, Twei, Araris, Leiftinspace, Eramit

Leift (4) : Emerald, Orlok. Alvron, Clanky, Feligon

Phatt (0) : Ren, Eramit

Hero (1): Maill

 

Leift.  Macen.

I can never figure out how to say why I'm retracting a vote so I'm not going to.

[Elithanathile]

Okay guys, lots of catching up to do, but I think I'm all ready now. (I don't mind being called BB, and paranoid king was referred to by PK in MR7. It could be possible that if there was a diagrammatic(? Autocorrect changed it to this and I'm wondering if it works.) They didn't tell the rest about it, and they killed him without being aware of the free info that would be incoming. That is a slim possibility. My best guess, and the one I think is correct, is simply that Bort did not contact any diagrammatics, but they had scanned Bort, knew he was a KR, and killed him. I believe the chance was 60% for there to be a diagramist, but that leaves 40% chance that there wasn't one, and that's saying it was complete RNG. It seems to me that Bort would choose people he would trust reducing the chance quite a bit. I'll place a Lynch vote on Macen, sorry, on mobile, no colors for now. He seemed to be directing a lot of attention towards the Bort PM situation, which if my chosen theory is correct, is pushing suspicion on innocents.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Metacognition
Fixed color for you to make things easier for Aonar

[Macen]

First off. What information gain would there be? The PM's last ONE CYCLE. The information gain was gone.

 

Illumination: You may open PMs with up to 1/5th of the current number of players for this cycle, and this cycle only. The GM will make the PMs at the end of the day/night, and they will last until the beginning of the next day.

 

Also, he hadn't used his squire yet and if they kill him on the same night he uses it, he doesn't get it off. 

 

Order of Actions will go: Abrasion/Gravitation> Transportation> Tension/Adhesion> Cohesion> Illumination/Transformation> Division/Diagramist Kill> Progression> Squiring. (Note: This means that Progression cannot be used to protect oneself from a kill.)

 

Also, please tell me how he could trust anyone on day one. Trusting someone the first cycle in this game is the easiest way to get yourself killed. What do you think the reason we didn't lynch anyone the first two days was? I would argue if you think you can trust someone you probably SHOULDN'T. Because it probably means they are doing their job well.

 

 believe the chance was 60% for there to be a diagramist, but that leaves 40% chance that there wasn't one, and that's saying it was complete RNG. It seems to me that Bort would choose people he would trust reducing the chance quite a bit.

 

I would 100% say I'm being lynched currently based on the fact that I have posted twice as much as anyone else. So, when you think "I need to lynch someone! Who should I pick!?" you think of me. Take the whole picture of what I said, not one little comment here or there.

I learned my lesson about trying to contribute too much.

*EDIT* Also, I have yet to post "LYNCH SOMEONE" I've been presenting the numbers and telling you all that one of the 4 is PROBABLY a Diagramist. If i was trying to lynch someone I would be switching my vote at every opportunity.

 

Edited July 24, 2015 by Macen

[phattemer]

I guess I'll vote for leftinspace because Macen's reaction seems like what I would do in the situation where I could be lynched and was a villager.

[Araris Valerian]

I would 100% say I'm being lynched currently based on the fact that I have posted twice as much as anyone else. So, when you think "I need to lynch someone! Who should I pick!?" you think of me. Take the whole picture of what I said, not one little comment here or there.

I learned my lesson about trying to contribute too much.

*EDIT* Also, I have yet to post "LYNCH SOMEONE" I've been presenting the numbers and telling you all that one of the 4 is PROBABLY a Diagramist. If i was trying to lynch someone I would be switching my vote at every opportunity.

I would have to disagree, as the second person to suspect (or voice suspicion of) you this cycle. Your initial posts at the start of the cycle were suspect, and while you have tried to explain them, people aren't that convinced. (Or they are so desperate for a lynch that they are ignoring your newer posts, but I doubt this). The math explanation was good, but IMO you shouldn't really have been able to draw very many conclusions from it because a 1/4 chance is not much better than the standard 1/5 Eliminator ratio.

 

Also, the thing about your last statement is that Probably is all anyone ever says in this game, unless we have a scan role that has been confirmed to be good.

[Macen]

I would have to disagree, as the second person to suspect (or voice suspicion of) you this cycle. Your initial posts at the start of the cycle were suspect, and while you have tried to explain them, people aren't that convinced. (Or they are so desperate for a lynch that they are ignoring your newer posts, but I doubt this). The math explanation was good, but IMO you shouldn't really have been able to draw very many conclusions from it because a 1/4 chance is not much better than the standard 1/5 Eliminator ratio.

 

Also, the thing about your last statement is that Probably is all anyone ever says in this game, unless we have a scan role that has been confirmed to be good.

After only 1 cycle it's true....

*edit* Also, go back and reread my posts from the beginning of the cycle please.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Macen

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Macen, re. numbers:

 

I agree it's statistically probable one of the PM recipients is a Diagrammist (I get 69.3% using a combination method and 6 eliminators). This is true of every other random set of 4 players (taking a player base of 25, which excludes Bort and Meta). The numbers that are actually interesting in your case are these (bold mine):

 

If I was a Diagramist and the person who was communicated with out of my faction wasn't one of our Radiants, I would 100% kill Bort. That leaves a 50/50 chance they will be suspicious of the group (obviously people are saying that we shouldn't be) and if people ARE suspicious of the group, there is only a 25% that our Diagramist is going to the one who gets lynched first. They kill 1 of our Illusionists, and they possibly kill him before he can get a squire out.

All I've been doing is breaking down game rules and presenting numbers to back up my theory. I still THINK we should lynch one of the 4. In my opinion there is at least a 25% chance we get a Diagramist (there is about a 20% chance he messaged 2 Diagramist; this could made it a 50% chance hit a Diagramist). If we don't get a Diagramist then there is a 35% chance they are one of our Radiants.

The first one says that if one of the contacts is evil, there's a 100% chance they would kill Bort. The second one indirectly says you believe there is a 100% chance there is a Diagrammist among the contacts, which - based on the first number - implies you think there is a 0% chance Bort would be killed if he did not contact a Diagrammist. (This is assuming you have no further reason to definitively suspect the contacts, which may or may not be the case - if not then please say something!)

 

Your statistical argument basically boils down to "Bort was definitely killed because he contacted a Diagrammist and they chose to kill the KR", and that is, I believe, what we are concerned about.

[Aonar]

First off. What information gain would there be? The PM's last ONE CYCLE. The information gain was gone.

 

A bit of a clarification here: I just realized my wording on Illumination was terribly unclear. Sorry. That power was one of the last adjustments I made, and clearly I didn't make myself understood properly. 

 

A little background: I've been trying to differentiate full and half cycles (Days/Nights) by referring to a Day/Night as a turn, and two consecutive turns as a cycle. It's just a little simpler for me. As such, Illumination can be used during either the Day or the Night, and PMs created this way will remain in place for one Day and one Night. Hopefully that makes sense to everyone.

 

Please return to you regularly scheduled lynching. (Two hours left to decide on the lynch, just so you're aware.)

[Metacognition]

 

 

Sanderson Elimination General Rules

• Cycle: Both a day turn and a night turn together. These are typically recorded as "Day 1" and "Night 1," with the process starting over afterwards.

• Turn: A day or night section of the game. There is a day turn and a night turn in each cycle, though the GM is capable of calling them by different names.

 

The Lexicon agrees.

[Macen]

 

 

 

 

The Lexicon agrees.

 

I wasn't arguing. A cycle is 1 day and night. The pm ended the night Bort died.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Macen

[Macen]

Macen, re. numbers:

 

I agree it's statistically probable one of the PM recipients is a Diagrammist (I get 69.3% using a combination method and 6 eliminators). This is true of every other random set of 4 players (taking a player base of 25, which excludes Bort and Meta). The numbers that are actually interesting in your case are these (bold mine):

 

The first one says that if one of the contacts is evil, there's a 100% chance they would kill Bort. The second one indirectly says you believe there is a 100% chance there is a Diagrammist among the contacts, which - based on the first number - implies you think there is a 0% chance Bort would be killed if he did not contact a Diagrammist. (This is assuming you have no further reason to definitively suspect the contacts, which may or may not be the case - if not then please say something!)

 

Your statistical argument basically boils down to "Bort was definitely killed because he contacted a Diagrammist and they chose to kill the KR", and that is, I believe, what we are concerned about.

Twei, since you keep pointing out I must have other evidence and I keep telling you to look back at my earlier posts. Maybe you should look at who I voted for.

I'm almost 100% sure Hero and Renegade put it together already and are going to kill me if you guys don't. I"m our Lightweaver. I have scanned both Renegade and Hero. Both are Diagramists. There you go. You could have just pieced together the only other reason I would have been pushing so hard and maybe thought about voting for Renegade? But no. everyone decided to overlook everything I've said and the only person I've voted for. So now we are going to lose TWO radiants because the Diagramists know who two are. At least they will lose two of theirs as well.

If you would have just waited until tomorrow to push this I was going to make you my squire. But, now they will kill me before I can.

*EDIT* Also, I would like to change my vote to Hero, since I'm pretty sure they wouldn't risk their Radiant on this ploy. That increases the chance that Hero is one of their radiants, not Renegade.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Macen

[twelfthrootoftwo]

I'm sorry, Macen  Renegade

 That makes two games in a row...

We do still have Leif as a Progression/Abrasion user, and Tension can function as protection too.

Edited July 24, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Macen]

I'm sorry, Macen  Renegade T

hat makes two games in a row...

We do still have Leif as a Progression/Abrasion user, and Tension can function as protection too.

Vote Hero please. Renegade would not have risked himself with that kill if he was a Radiant.

[Renegade]

Oh, no, kill me first, I insist!

[Macen]

It's ok Renegade. It looks like one of our two radiants is going to die still

[leiftinspace]

Macen, if you are a lightweaver, please send me a pm

[Macen]

I can't send you a PM. I used both of my charges scanning Renegade and Hero. Even if I DID have a ch arge, you wouldn't get it until the end of the night.

*EDIT* End of the day.

Edited July 24, 2015 by Macen

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Renegade Hero

(Macen, your vote is on Ren at the moment, I think)

*Edit: Didn't see the change

 

now if anyone wants me again, I'll be in the corner banging my head against the wall

Edited July 24, 2015 by twelfthrootoftwo

[Macen]

Renegade Hero

(Macen, your vote is on Ren at the moment, I think)

 

now if anyone wants me again, I'll be in the corner banging my head against the wall

I changed it in my edit above.

[Alvron]

Macen.  Hero.

 

Edit:  Vote Tally

Macen (3) : Twei, Araris, Paranoid King, Twei, Alvron, BB

Ren (1) : Macen, Twei, Ren

Paranoid (3) : Hero, Maill, Twei, Araris, Leiftinspace, Eramit

Leift (5) : Emerald, Orlok. Alvron, Clanky, Feligon, Phatt

Phatt (0) : Ren, Eramit

Hero (4): Maill, Macen, Twei, Alvron

Edited July 24, 2015 by Alvron

[Macen]

We need one vote switcfhed from Leift to Hero. please

[Macen]

10 minutes and we need 1 vote switched.