Long Game 13: Traitors on the Plains

[Araris Valerian]

Well, so far we don't have too much to go on as far as discussion. As far as Meta is concerned, I remember a few people involved with him.

Jain: Poked Meta

Peng: Voted on Jain to support Meta

Araris (Me): Voted on Peng because his reasoning seemed a bit slim and he made an actual lynch threat with his vote

There might have been more, but I'm on mobile and it's a pain to flip between threads. Anyway, I'm gonna vote on Peng again, since I don't remember getting a response last cycle and he is still a suspect in my mind. I realize he said he would be inactive, but I'm fine having to wait a while to hear back. As far as lynch discussion goes he is my largest suspect.

[Lightsworn Panda]

Jain: This post reminds me of your LG12 defensiveness. Comments?

 

Well, you know what politicians love to say in moments like these. No Comment.   

 

Actually, I do have a comment. I am no where near LG12 defensiveness (or aggressiveness) in that post. I just took my vote off Meta and explained that Meta was the one that I picked (twice in a row) with a RNG.

 

Just throwing a thought out. Maybe we could set up a Squire system, where a candidate come forward, and is scanned. A previously scanned and Squired player could then confirm if the candidates are clean (we're obviously going to need protect this person). So, in a worst case scenario, the potential pool of Radiants shrink by 3 every Cycle, assuming that none of the lynches and kills hit a Radiant. Assuming that the maximum number of Diagramists (6, 7 would be too harsh IMO) are all vanillas (highly unlikely), then we currently start off with a minimum non-Radiant-or-Diagramist pool of 10, if we take Aonar's maximum number of Radiants. It'll take us around 6 Cycles to completely clear this pool.

 

The downsides of this semi-plan:

• I'm willing to bet that the Diagramist have at least one Radiant, and possibly with the Transformation Surge, which can really throw a wrench into the workings.
• The Diagramists can narrow down who the Radiants are much more easily, and may even end up killing the Transformation Radiant(s), collapsing this gambit.
• Collaborating the scans and protections is going to be complicated.
• When the candidate is cleared, it might become a Free-for-All to Squire him/her. Aonar, what happens if multiple Radiants attempt to squire a player?

The upsides:

• While the Diagramists get a better idea of who the Radiants are, we're also bound to catch some vanilla Diagramists, too.
• If it succeeds, we get a clean pool of Squires.

Any thoughts, or even better, improvements, on this?

 

Player list (totally not blatantly copied from Bort):

 

 

Player List:

1. Sani (The Only Joe) - Lighteyes who once scribed for Dalinar Kholin.
2. Justin (Peng the Just) - Former slave.
3. Sheon Idris (Seonid) - Selish Worldhopper.
4. Ableah Edr (Haelbarde) - Woefully without description. Another Selish Worldhopper, of a clan of Selish Worldhoppers. - Refugee Shardbearer
5. Etam (Metacognition) - Scout.  Refugee
6. Madon (Mailliw73) - Crem collector. 
7. Bartholomew the Blind (Bort) - midget barbomancer/Worldhopper.
8. The Roszo (Renegade) - Herdazian who is determined to be more impressive than his glowing cousin.
9. Adamir (Adamir) - Darkeyes who is convinced he's from another world.
10. Seixa (phattemer) - Yet another Selish Worldhopper,* and once (pseudo-)Priest of Shu-Korath. 
11. Kip Sturm (Kipper) - Smart Alec Woefully without description.
12. Ace (Macen) - Delusional man with a tiny hammer, believes that he's a Brightlord and a Radiant. 
13. Jain (Lightsworn Panda) - A panda. In a desolate wasteland. (Maybe he's Thanadal's exotic Shin pet?)
14. Em C. Palah (Emerald101) - Emuli potter. (Needs Ace's hammer.)
15. Citrona Vinid (Shallan) - Scadrian-Elantiran Worldhopper and noble who will not be questioned.
16. Wannan (Herowannabe) - Darkeyed soldier. Alive, and assumed to be immortal, seeing how he isn't dead.
17. Eradin (eramit) - Best darkeyed spearman in Thandal's army.
18. Wol (Araris Valerian) - Old ardent who might know how to spell his own name.
19. Findilti Findilt (idolevy) - Delusional man who thinks he's a Knight Radiant.
20. Orlok (OrlokTsobodai) - Woefully without description.
21. Plurn Burn (Feligon) - Engineer who is woefully ignorant of fabrials.
22. Dow (dowanx) - Woefully without description.
23. Eo (Spooky Eowyn) - Apparently Thaylen with fake eyebrows. May or may not be a Selish Worldhopper.
24. Akirsefatafesrika (Bridge Boy) - Blasphemous pretend soldier.
25. Smeagol (leiftinspace) - Obsessive midget Universehopper. 
26. Kazaaakplethkilik (Paranoid King) - Supposedly famous thief and Worldhopper.
27. Alvonoha (Alvron) - Ardent, and owner of a strange cat. Catquisitor!?!
28. Cla (Clanky) - Horneater who loves drinking contests.
29. Torren (twelthrootoftwo) - Recalcitrant conscript, and spy for Roion.

 

Edit: Added Spoiler tags.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Lightsworn Panda

[Feligon]

I've just been lurking for a bit.  

I doubt any plan we come up with won't have some way that some major problems could potentially arise.  Currently, I've been thinking that maybe 3-4 people being checked by transformation would work best for the current plan.  Aside from that, I have no idea what to do.

 

"all I've got is a penny whistle and a shock stick."

[Renegade]

I just came back from a 8-hour long car drive (something like that), so I'm too tired to post anything coherent.  I should be around tomorrow morning (about 12 hours from now) to start actually analyzing stuff in the game.

[Aonar]

When the candidate is cleared, it might become a Free-for-All to Squire him/her. Aonar, what happens if multiple Radiants attempt to squire a player?

 

The Radiant that succeeds will be chosen at random. 

 

Clarifications from yesterday that I missed:

 

 

 

Aonar, I'm assuming a squire does not lose their abilities when the Radiant who made them die. Is this correct?

There are two scenarios our Radiants are sitting in now. They have a 74% chance of blind hitting a good guy (assuming that 7/20 are diagramists, may be higher if it's only 5 or 6) and you still have a chance that they are already a Radiants, which is a wasted try (but, from what I gather you don't lose your radiant charge?).

 

Yes, this is correct.

 

Yes, if a Squiring attempt fails for any reason, another attempt can be made. (However, if someone is made into a Squire and then killed in a later turn, their Radiant cannot make a new Squire.)

 

---

 

A couple minor things:

 

If anyone has any requests for their death write-up song, feel free to PM me. (Please note, I might well end up using something else, if it happens to fit better with other events of the night.)

 

Also, if the Radiants want to PM me names for their spren, so I don't have to come up with something in the spot for the write-up, that'd be appreciated.

 

Finally, in case people haven't noticed, the write-up is now in. Much, much later than intended, but it is done. (I really need to learn how to write faster. )

[eramit]

i just want to give you a reminder - if someone is squiring you in the early cycles it doesnt mean he is a refugee - he can be a diagramist who want your trust and he could manipulate you so dont follow blindly after your radiant (especially if its in the early cycles because other radiants will not squire at the start from lack of information)

[phattemer]

I haven't been able to be on for a bit, but it seems to be that until either A. a lynch happens or B. Radiant powers are used we have no evidence to accuse anyone based on events in this game. Of course, we can go off of posts in Cycle 1, but I'm lazy. For now, I will put forward a lynch target of Cla(nky)! I don't recall seeing a post from them but the intention is not to kill inactives, nor to kill Clanky, but to have a lynch discussion with intent to kill.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

Macen

 

With the writeup now posted, we know that Meta had someone with Progression trying to save him. The Diagrammists used Gravity to make their kill unstoppable. Therefore, any plan that involves a public trusted person is going to end with that trusted person splattered over the rocks wherever they land. Until we can lynch their WR/SB, and ideally check they don't have a living squire with Gravitation, I think it's better to let the KR work behind the scenes rather than trying to set up public trusts.

 

Putting the writeup aside (since it's only been posted recently), I'm still inclined to agree with Hero about Bort's plan. Revealing the identity of all the KR like that for the sake of successful squiring is not worth the risks. Jain's version makes more sense, but runs into the problem of the scanned-and-confirmed squire needed as the LW/EC contact point.

 

We have a lot of silent people...Adamir, for example.

[Shallan]

I would agree with you, 12th, but also I'd like to add that poke voting isn't really going to do anything. I believe Meta or someone else mentioned in Cycle 1 that if you say "X hasn't posted, I am voting for X until they post" it won't do anything whether they post or not. Unless a bandwagon starts on the inactive, in which case they are probably dead either way, then 1 vote on them won't matter. If they aren't inactive, (and are an Eliminator) then they can just post "Hi, just checking in! Not inactive!".

[Emerald101]

With the writeup now posted, we know that Meta had someone with Progression trying to save him. The Diagrammists used Gravity to make their kill unstoppable.

 

GM Question: Aonar, just wanting to confirm that such hints in the writeup actually pertain to nighttime events, and are not just flavor. Thank You.

[Herowannabe]

With the writeup now posted, we know that Meta had someone with Progression trying to save him. The Diagrammists used Gravity to make their kill unstoppable. Therefore, any plan that involves a public trusted person is going to end with that trusted person splattered over the rocks wherever they land. Until we can lynch their WR/SB, and ideally check they don't have a living squire with Gravitation, I think it's better to let the KR work behind the scenes rather than trying to set up public trusts.

Well that is interesting, and a little unnerving. In my analysis of the roles that is still forthcoming (sorry! Life happened) I was going to say I'm inclined to think that the Eliminators don't have gravitation, as that would give them a LOT of power. Obviously I was wrong. Some conclusions and questions drawn from this new information:

With Gravitation, that means that the eliminators can perform 2 kills out of every 3 days and there is nothing we can do to stop it, unless we counter with some gravitation-enhanced actions of our own.

Aonar: What happens if two gravitation enhanced powers conflict with each other? Ie: in the writeup, what would have happened if the player trying to use progression on Meta had received a gravitation boost?

Furthermore, if their Windrunner (I'm assuming they don't have a Skybreaker, because that would be very broken) makes a squire who also gets gravitation, that would mean they can make an unblockable kill every cycle.

To any of our Radiants who have gravitation- hang on to those charges. We're going to need them. Aonar has said that you can "store" up to 4 charges of stormlight, and once we get a radiant with transformation revealed, we're going to need gravity-boosted progressions to protect them.

Some questions raised by the writeup: did the eliminators know that meta would be protected last night, and that's why they gravity-boosted their attack? Or did they just guess that he would be protected? Or maybe they really just that scared of Meta that they were willing to spend a charge of stormlight just to make sure he went down?

Another thought occurs to me after typing all this. I suppose it's possible that the eliminators do t have a Windrunner, but just received a gravity boost at random. I seriously hope that isn't the case. If someone out there DID do a random gravity boost on another player, your target player is almost certainly the eliminator who performed the kill. To everyone with powers, I recommend not using them randomly (except for transformation, of course). Again, you can save up to 4 charges, so you have until night 6 before you HAVE to use some charges or lose them.

[Aonar]

GM Question: Aonar, just wanting to confirm that such hints in the writeup actually pertain to nighttime events, and are not just flavor. Thank You.

 

The only night actions that will be made absolutely clear in the write-up will be kills and protections. However, if another power alters a kill or a protection, it will be hinted at in the write-up. How heavy-handed the hints are will depend on how much time I want to waste figuring out how to make things subtle.

 

(Also worth noting: If a Squire is created, the event will be hinted at in the write-up, but no information on persons, powers, or numbers will be given.)

 

Aonar: What happens if two gravitation enhanced powers conflict with each other? Ie: in the writeup, what would have happened if the player trying to use progression on Meta had received a gravitation boost?

 

Gravitation, when used on conflicting actions, will cancel out, leaving things to proceed as they would if everything were normal. (However, all non-Gravity-boosted actions that would attempt to affect either power would still be cancelled.) So in this case, Meta would have been saved.

Edited July 19, 2015 by Aonar Faileas

[Araris Valerian]

Well, there are a lot of people that aren't discussing anything. I am serious behind my vote on Peng; I think that he would be a good lynch target based on how he behaved in the first cycle. So I am not going to move my vote, but I do think that perhaps if we could get a second vote on him then at least the village would be doing something rather than waiting for roles and such to be sorted out.

[eramit]

so you want to do a random lynch every day? i think we need more information before we should lynch someone

[leiftinspace]

I tend to agree with sentiments that lynching is one way to get info, and as i already voiced suspicion of peng last round, i hope it won't look too suspicious if i vote for him this round

Edit for color

Edited July 19, 2015 by leiftinspace

[phattemer]

Change your parentheses to brackets. ( -> [ and ) -> ]

[Feligon]

I think we have to do something other than waiting around to get killed.  

 

The plan that was already discussed, Bort's plan, (the one about a group of vanillas coming out), is probably the best so far.  If a group of only four revealed themselves, they might get enough time to become squires and be useful (hopefully some detection and pm powers get transferred).  That's probably the best-case scenario, and the worst-case was already expressed in detail.  And yes, it would be bad if all the vanillas came out because the eliminators would know who the radiants are, but the faster we can get those powers transferred, the better I think our chances are.  We have a limited amount of time, and I haven't heard a better plan, so I think we should move as fast as we can to get this one going.  Otherwise, we're sitting ducks.

 

Also, Araris seems suspicious to me because he's being so aggressive, but he pretty much always plays that way.  What I am concerned about is the amount of people Jumping behind some of these single votes and giving no explanation.  That kinda seems like a dirty tactic to me.

 

"[soulcast stone,]...It's got this smell I can't get out of my head."

 

Edit: plan is now called "Bort's plan"

Edited July 19, 2015 by Feligon

[Bort]

I'm going to pass on voting this cycle. It's too late to poke vote someone, and I've pretty much been out all weekend, so haven't been able to do much other than scan the thread.

 

About the only things that jumped out at me are Hero's posts. I can see the benefit of having a stockpile of Stormlight, but asking people not to use Gravitation when we have it fairly well confirmed that the eliminators used it to kill someone seems a little off. Coupled with his first two posts which provided handy information, but nothing new, makes me wonder if he is trying to look active, while not really contributing anything of benefit.

 

Not going to vote though, because like I said, I've not properly analysed the thread so may be missing something, but I'm too tired for that now, so I'll see you all in the night thread

[Renegade]

Well, in the incredibly small chance that the write-up isn’t accurate, the fact that the Diagramists decided to go after Meta (who would likely be protected), means that they were pretty confident that their kill would go through.  Which means that it’s almost guaranteed that the Diagramists have a Windrunner or Skybreaker (and, as Hero stated, probably a Windrunner, unless they’re purposely withholding their second kill).  That does help us know that a lot of the Diagramist kills will be unblockable, but it doesn’t help too much more than that.

 

However, it does make me a bit suspicious of Macen, as he did not mention the chance of a Gravitation Diagramist in his role analysis.  And there have been several instances where a Gravitation-like role (i.e. the Smoker role from Mistborn games) has been included on the Eliminator team.  So you either didn’t consider the fact, or were purposely trying to mislead us from believing that there is indeed a Gravitation Radiant on the Diagramist team.

 

I’d also like to know what’s happened with Findilti, who hasn’t posted since I voted for him last cycle.  Care to say why you were so vehement on voting for Kipper?

[Macen]

I'm going to pass on voting this cycle. It's too late to poke vote someone, and I've pretty much been out all weekend, so haven't been able to do much other than scan the thread.

 

About the only things that jumped out at me are Hero's posts. I can see the benefit of having a stockpile of Stormlight, but asking people not to use Gravitation when we have it fairly well confirmed that the eliminators used it to kill someone seems a little off. Coupled with his first two posts which provided handy information, but nothing new, makes me wonder if he is trying to look active, while not really contributing anything of benefit.

 

Not going to vote though, because like I said, I've not properly analysed the thread so may be missing something, but I'm too tired for that now, so I'll see you all in the night thread

I'm going to back up hero here. Blindly using charges that have a 23% (assuming there are 6) chance of hitting a diagramist and probably a 60% chance of hitting a non radiant is worse than dying and not using them at all. The chance of dying (if we just used a RNG) is 3.8%.

As far as what we should do, I've been analyzing the skills and their uses for us and it appears to me that there is no "safe" way for any of the radians to have communicated with anyone until night 2.

What I mean by safe is: Assuming whoever has transformation scanned someone and got a refugee. Then tonight they can squire them (creating a private chat). All of our radians who don't have transformation are stuck In a rough spot until someone scans them or communicates with them via illumination.

As far as Borts plan goes we have issues with the regular diagramist coming forward and getting free powers. Also, this gives them one of our radiants... I see more use in blind shooting than a group effort. If we had someone who knew who each radiant made a squire, that would be a different story... One radiant for 1 diagramist would make us win... (I think?)

This game is very unique in the fact that as refugees we are stuck until night 2/3 unless our radiants take big risks.

Let me know if you see any holes in my thought pattern here. I'm on my phone only until late tonight.

[Macen]

Well, in the incredibly small chance that the write-up isn’t accurate, the fact that the Diagramists decided to go after Meta (who would likely be protected), means that they were pretty confident that their kill would go through.  Which means that it’s almost guaranteed that the Diagramists have a Windrunner or Skybreaker (and, as Hero stated, probably a Windrunner, unless they’re purposely withholding their second kill).  That does help us know that a lot of the Diagramist kills will be unblockable, but it doesn’t help too much more than that.

 

However, it does make me a bit suspicious of Macen, as he did not mention the chance of a Gravitation Diagramist in his role analysis.  And there have been several instances where a Gravitation-like role (i.e. the Smoker role from Mistborn games) has been included on the Eliminator team.  So you either didn’t consider the fact, or were purposely trying to mislead us from believing that there is indeed a Gravitation Radiant on the Diagramist team.

 

I’d also like to know what’s happened with Findilti, who hasn’t posted since I voted for him last cycle.  Care to say why you were so vehement on voting for Kipper?

This was my bad overlooking it. smoker didn't really do that though... It was more of a scan preventer (unless it's been modified since the early games).

[Peng the Just]

I tend to agree with sentiments that lynching is one way to get info, and as i already voiced suspicion of peng last round, i hope it won't look too suspicious if i vote for him this round

Edit for color

Hey guys. I'm back for a second. I am genuinely sorry for my inactivity, but cannot promise it will improve. I should be on tomorrow night for a bit, but after that I'm not sure. I'm going to start having school early in the morning, which means I wouldn't be able to stay up late and post. My teachers are also cracking down on nonschool related use of the computer, which is the only PC I have consistent access to other than work. I still hope to be able to get on my tablet occasionally.

As for defense of my first round vote, trying to kill off our best player seems like something the eliminators would want to do, and I think I was proven right.

I most likely won't be voting this cycle

[Herowannabe]

About the only things that jumped out at me are Hero's posts. I can see the benefit of having a stockpile of Stormlight, but asking people not to use Gravitation when we have it fairly well confirmed that the eliminators used it to kill someone seems a little off. Coupled with his first two posts which provided handy information, but nothing new, makes me wonder if he is trying to look active, while not really contributing anything of benefit.

Sorry, I should have been more clear. I meant hold off on using your gravitation charges until we can make sure they count.

Gravitation is paired with adhesion (role block) and division (kill) for windrunners and skybreakers, respectively. If we have a Windrunner, gravitation-boosting a role block isn't especially helpful. A gravitation-boosted kill COULD be helpful in the right circumstance, like when we find an eliminator and suspect they might be protected.

However, gravitation is probably going to be most useful for us when we can pair it with things like abrasion and progression, protecting our key players.

However, all of those situations necessitate waiting until safe networks can be established and actions can be coordinated.

As for voting, I feel like I should've voting for someone, but I just haven't had time to analyze any posts and I literally have no suspicions at this point. If I come up with anything I'll be sure to make it known before the end of the cycle.

[twelfthrootoftwo]

 

I would agree with you, 12th, but also I'd like to add that poke voting isn't really going to do anything. I believe Meta or someone else mentioned in Cycle 1 that if you say "X hasn't posted, I am voting for X until they post" it won't do anything whether they post or not. Unless a bandwagon starts on the inactive, in which case they are probably dead either way, then 1 vote on them won't matter. If they aren't inactive, (and are an Eliminator) then they can just post "Hi, just checking in! Not inactive!".

They could. And then I could refrain from removing my vote, as I did with Joe last cycle. As a serial poke voter, after the first cycle I'm usually happy to turn a poke vote into a lynch in the absence of a better suspicion.

 

Since poke votes have received a lot of attention this game, I'll also point out that, at least for me, they're not so much about directly gathering information as they are developing and maintaining engagement with the thread. In an ideal world, everyone would be posting and voting immediately with the intent of lynching someone. But, as we've seen, the majority of players don't. Many end up not voting - or posting - at all, which sets up a habit of silence that can be difficult to break. Poke votes get those people reading and responding to the thread, even in small ways, which in turn make more meaningful contributions easier later in the game.

 

Now, I don't know whether or not this actually works for the people getting poked. But I can say with certainty that as a poker, it works for me.

 

About the only things that jumped out at me are Hero's posts. I can see the benefit of having a stockpile of Stormlight, but asking people not to use Gravitation when we have it fairly well confirmed that the eliminators used it to kill someone seems a little off. Coupled with his first two posts which provided handy information, but nothing new, makes me wonder if he is trying to look active, while not really contributing anything of benefit.

I'm with Hero and Macen on this. Particularly if we're hoping to go with a long-term scanning plan, as several people (yourself included, Bort) have proposed, we're going to be relying on having reliable protection. That does raise a question of whether Progression users whould hold on to their charges as well, since the Gravitation charges are only useful in this way of there's a protection power to boost. (My answer to this is that they should use their powers, since I think it's more likely the Diagram have a WR/SB than they received a random boost, which makes a maximum of one Refugee Gravity user to a max of four Refugee Progression/Abrasion users if there are no doubled Radiants. I'm interested in how others see this, though.)

[Araris Valerian]

I think I agree with twelfth here. What Meta was disagreeing with was a vote that went away at any sign of activity at all. Twelfth is saying, "be helpful or die or something." (basically) While I think my vote is currently most useful where it is now, causing Peng to get lynched, I am a bit curious why you came on to post about Twelfth's habits but didn't make a vote or add anything else to discussion. Poke voting is always a topic that gets discussed, but it never really changes anybody's mind.