Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[dannnex male]

i would much prefer a TUN exe over a devo one, but looks like i might need to switch for self pres

i’m on mobile exclusively for the moment, don’t expect me to be posting VCs or posting much at all in these 13 min we have left 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Dannex (2) - Archer, Symph

Mat (1) -  Devo

TUN (1) - Dannex

Devo (2) - Shining, Mat

Archer (1) - Kas

I guess Danex is threatened. Not sure why. I think he's a very unlikely convert with risk of death and has proven his messenger ability so is unlikely Melkor. The convo he spied on was Conq (village) and Kas (claimed village safe role, no counterclaims) so messenger is well proven. Still think Mat over TUN but could switch if Mat gets Fell killed.

[Kasimir he/him]

45 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Effort clear for Mat is for his Araris progression? @Kasimir No coherent indication of why Araris being able to prove his role wasn't satisfactory given his theory of Melkor Araris.

Effort clear is both for that and generally posting and being noisy, doing reads, the basic helpful stuff. I expect E!Mat to be able to manage that too, so I am not dead convinced.

Archer

TUN

Eru help me. Valar help me. Tulkas help me.

[Mat he/him]

@Kasimir— want me to move?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

MAt TUN

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

@Kasimir— want me to move?

Use your best judgement. It's all we can do in this world of suffering .__.

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

THATS IT PLEASE STOP THE MADNESS

[Fifth Scholar he/him]

Writeup to come. I hate it more than any of you but y'all will want results before tomorrow morning >>

---

Da[n=6]ex was imprisoned! He was a Faithful Messenger!

Dannex (3)

TUN (3)

Devotary (2)

Archer was killed by the Corrupted! He was Celegorm the Fair (Faithful Son of Feanor Orator)!

The Unknown Novel was attacked, but survived!

Cycle Four has begun! It will end in 22.5 hours' time on Thursday 8 September at 10:00 PM EDT. Get in your votes and actions!

PMs are CLOSED with the death of the last Messenger. Do not PM anyone except me.  

There is an exe today.

Good luck!

Player List:

1. The Unknown Novel as Aegnor, son of Finarfin

2. Araris Valerian as Findor, star-watcher and boat-builder Faithful Messenger

3. Matrim's Dice as TBD

4. Shining Silhouette as Sircyn, son of Tellyn

5. JNV as Menelir of the Sea and Sky, a concerned wanderer

6. Conquestor as Sethryn, son of the Rememberer Son of Feanor Noble

7. The Wandering Wizard as TBD Galadriel

8. da[n=??]ex as TBD Messenger

9. Devotary of Spontaneity as Nienna, a Vala committed to criminal justice reform

10. SymphonianBookworm as TBD

11. Archer as Tarell the Toothsayer Son of Feanor Orator

12. Kasimir as Tulkas the Valiant

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

Do you believe me now?

Also, that seems like a big reveal. Will check again later once I have more time.

[Mat he/him]

4 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

Do you believe me now?

Also, that seems like a big reveal. Will check again later once I have more time.

Melkor with a shield gives the same result, but this adds more credibility to Sailor!you. Squinting at you surviving the tie though. I don’t think you can be corrupted after Devo’s vote, fwiw, because in that case who is Melkor?

@SymphonianBookworm— why did you attack the claimed double life :| Perhaps you’re the convert of Devo, and were hoping to seal the double tap? But Archer ruined your fun?

[Kasimir he/him]

Ffs >>

Taking a deep breath. Hopefully we've gotten the Evil Danex theories out of our collective systems now >> 

I shielded JNV last cycle. @SymphonianBookworm, what did you do on the role and item actions front? @JNV Similar question.

TUN was attacked and survived - either a Sailor, or was Shielded from a Fell Sword attack. If we're theorising the Shielding route, since Melkor can't make shields (unless Melkor is a Smith), then a Convert has to be someone who started with a Shield. Not able to work through the probabilities just yet.

Quote

TUN (3): Devo, Kas, Danex
Danex (2): Archer, Symph
Devo (2): Shining, Mat

I assume Archer votejacked someone onto Danex. Off the top of my head, has to be TUN.

Devo roleblock stays soft-confirmed due to Danex's death, with the potential of Helm or Shield intervention. Presume Corrupted killing Archer is to deny voting firepower. Strikes me as a very strong IKYK with Feanor being set up. IMO, Danex's flip and Archer's flip should more or less solidify the alibis among <Danex, Archer, JNV, Symph, Devo.>

Edited to add:

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Squinting at you surviving the tie though. I don’t think you can be corrupted after Devo’s vote, fwiw, because in that case who is Melkor?

I don't follow this - if you think that it's a Devo-TUN team, Devo would have to be Melkor, wouldn't she? Devo has always been willing to bus ruthlessly as an Elim - it's what threw people off her in LG73, AG7, and the last MR we were teammates together.

FWIW I actually think Devo is Village and I'm not willing to bet on E!TUN anymore so I have to do a lot of rethinking at this point.

Edited to add 2:

Like, look at how E!Devo typically thinks. (You can check the MR doc - E!Devo is strongly concerned with consistency with her stated views.) Or even V!Devo in this context. She's not going to self-vote. She's already gone on record as saying that Danex doesn't make sense as a convert since C2. Who else does she really self-pres on, realistically, in this game?

@Matrim's Dice

I blame Aman for these awful discursive habits, ew.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

9 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I don't follow this - if you think that it's a Devo-TUN team, Devo would have to be Melkor, wouldn't she? Devo has always been willing to bus ruthlessly as an Elim - it's what threw people off her in LG73, AG7, and the last MR we were teammates together.

FWIW I actually think Devo is Village and I'm not willing to bet on E!TUN anymore so I have to do a lot of rethinking at this point.

Edited to add 2:

Like, look at how E!Devo typically thinks. (You can check the MR doc - E!Devo is strongly concerned with consistency with her stated views.) Or even V!Devo in this context. She's not going to self-vote. She's already gone on record as saying that Danex doesn't make sense as a convert since C2. Who else does she really self-pres on, realistically, in this game?

That was more me saying I don’t think it’s a TUN/Devo team, because of the bussing required for that to be the case, but if she’s that willing to bus (again, poor SE long term memory) then it’s still possible. I don’t see why Melkor!TUN and converted!Devo isn’t possible though, mechanics wise, as you seem to think.

TUN is a shrug and at the very least isn’t teamed with Bookworm, but I do think Devo/Bookworm has some equity.

[Kasimir he/him]

1 minute ago, Matrim's Dice said:

That was more me saying I don’t think it’s a TUN/Devo team, because of the bussing required for that to be the case, but if she’s that willing to bus (again, poor SE long term memory) then it’s still possible. I don’t see why Melkor!TUN and converted!Devo isn’t possible though, mechanics wise, as you seem to think.

Fair, yeah. Mechanically it's possible for sure, if Melkor has a double role or was shielded. But the Shield might also explain the roleblock not taking effect. 

But I say this despite also actually now strongly thinking Devo is Village so I'm more hypothetically exploring the argument than really solidly going for E!Devo.

[Mat he/him]

I still think there’s grounds for Melkor having a double role, so they can’t just be caught by a mass claim, but I’ve proven enough times how bad I am at distro guessing. The TUN/Devo world allows for Devo to have actually been roleblocked since TUN could have done the kill, but the shield in question could count for both.

That’s fine, I’m not dead set on anything either— exploring options is our job at this point.

Edit: Actually, explain that to me. You yourself said e!Devo isn’t afraid of bussing, so why the sudden confidence?

Edited September 8, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir he/him]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I still think there’s grounds for Melkor having a double role, so they can’t just be caught by a mass claim,

This is why I'm basically running on more or less pure actions economy at this point. I just don't have enough faith in role guessing when Melkor could very well be more unique.

Thoughts on Symph at this point?

I suppose I could rethink the Shining derp clear or the JNV vibe clear, but Noble!Melkor? Shining convert? 

Fair warning that my Devo clear is semi-style/vibe based, so I wouldn't be the farm on it, but I can't see certain post tones coming from E!Devo, so that's what I've got for her. I think the TUN vote is compatible with both V! and E! Devo though, so I hesitate more on that. Her preference was to lynch you prior to TUN.

[Mat he/him]

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Thoughts on Symph at this point?

I have no clue. Not teamed with TUN unless that kill came from someone else, but killing the claimed Sailor is a weird choice regardless. It’s why my initial assumption was for it to be a double tap with TUNs exe, but that wasn’t ahead until  Devo last second voted and Dannex died to Archer’s manip anyway. That to me looks like Bookworm/Devo, which would require Devo to have started with a shield, though I think that’s possible and at this point I think you’d be hard pressed to find a solve without some kind of caveat :P.

6 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I suppose I could rethink the Shining derp clear or the JNV vibe clear, but Noble!Melkor? Shining convert? 

I dunno. Noble Melkor seems a bit OP and if Shining’s a convert Melkor’s still out there— not Devo, probably, so TUN? Idk. I thought JNV was cleared through mech but if it’s just vibe maybe I should reinsert them into my tangled up PoEs >>

8 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Fair warning that my Devo clear is semi-style/vibe based, so I wouldn't be the farm on it, but I can't see certain post tones coming from E!Devo, so that's what I've got for her. I think the TUN vote is compatible with both V! and E! Devo though, so I hesitate more on that. Her preference was to lynch you prior to TUN.

Did this just come from rethinking during rollover, I guess? You seemed pretty unconvinced about anything a few hours ago so I guess I’m just surprised. Her preferring to exe me and saying as much, as well as plans to not switch unless I was Fell Sword’d, is most of what makes her switch at the end surprising to me.

Off to bed— eager to see what y’all have to say in the morning. It’s looking like most roads lead to Devo for me but we’ll see where the cycle goes.

[Kasimir he/him]

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I thought JNV was cleared through mech but if it’s just vibe maybe I should reinsert them into my tangled up PoEs >>

JNV was mech-cleared of making the C2 kill. E!JNV more or less requires a teammate who was capable of putting in the kill C2. No corroboration of C1 JNV.

6 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Did this just come from rethinking during rollover, I guess? You seemed pretty unconvinced about anything a few hours ago so I guess I’m just surprised. Her preferring to exe me and saying as much, as well as plans to not switch unless I was Fell Sword’d, is most of what makes her switch at the end surprising to me.

Rereading our PM during rollover. I will probably rethink this another seventy times in the next few hours, but Danex's flip makes me feel a bit more sure of myself, since Devo and I were the ones defending the idea that convert!Danex didn't make sense, and Melkor!Danex more or less requires E!Mat. 

I mean, my main counterpoint to that is that I think it's a NAI switch - without her switch, she could die, with two votes on her. Going onto you doesn't self-pres because I'd moved off you and signalled in thread I wasn't keen on voting for you. In light of that, her choices for self-pres were basically you or Danex, she'd historically defended Danex, and I generally consider self-pres NAI in most players.

We're probably 5/2 now, going 3/2 next cycle. 

Edited September 8, 2022 by Kasimir

[JNV]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@JNV Similar question.

Protected Symphonum and made Archer a shield which I guess is just loose in the wild now if anyone wants a shield let me know 

So as far as I can tell the public claims of the lviing people right now are Sailor The Unknown Novel but down a life Finwe Kasimir Feanor Symphonium son of Feanor smith me with no claims from shining or Matrim I mean I guess Matrim apparently claimed to Kasimir in PMs but thats not public  and I think Devotary claimed son of feanor do any of you want to bring up what you are 

My heart is telling me to go for Shining but my brain is telling me thats just cause their tone pings my evildar for some reason and analysis should be done but its two in the morning so Im going to sleep and Ill be on at rollover dont worry hopefully Ill have time to do actual thoughts night night

[Kasimir he/him]

19 minutes ago, JNV said:

no claims from shining

Shining claimed Noble and it showed up in the vote count, backed by you because you did not receive a Jewel, so Shining hadn't bribed you.

Odds of a Noble!Melkor?

[SymphonianBookworm she/her]

The reason I killed TUN was because, to me, their posts felt off. At one point I just decided to go for it. If they did have two lives, then nothing would happen. If they didn’t, they would have been lying and very suspicious. I figured since I couldn’t actually do real harm…. Why not?

Can the person I gave the Fell Sword to say that I crafted a Fell Sword for them?

[Kasimir he/him]

1 hour ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

The reason I killed TUN was because, to me, their posts felt off. At one point I just decided to go for it. If they did have two lives, then nothing would happen. If they didn’t, they would have been lying and very suspicious. I figured since I couldn’t actually do real harm…. Why not?

Can the person I gave the Fell Sword to say that I crafted a Fell Sword for them?

Suggestion you keep using the Fell Sword to roleblock, if you can. Stopping a kill is good for us and also good evidence that player is hinky. It'll force Melkor to be smithing or using Shields, IMO.

I'm going to try to commit to more analysis but I also have to do overtime work tonight. 

In the meanwhile, because the dead doc is probably frothing at the mouth with how little activity there is: Shining.

7 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I mean, my main counterpoint to that is that I think it's a NAI switch - without her switch, she could die, with two votes on her. Going onto you doesn't self-pres because I'd moved off you and signalled in thread I wasn't keen on voting for you. In light of that, her choices for self-pres were basically you or Danex, she'd historically defended Danex, and I generally consider self-pres NAI in most players.

@Matrim's Dice - Just to be clear, I think it's NAI and I'm not basing my Village read of Devo off that (as I mentioned.) It's just that I don't take your point to be a point against her. I did ask her in the PM before it closed why she kept pushing for you over TUN and piecing her responses together, I believe I understand what's going on there, but this is something I don't want to dwell overmuch on and I do believe it's better for everyone if she answers that directly.

Edited to add:

8 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Edit: Actually, explain that to me. You yourself said e!Devo isn’t afraid of bussing, so why the sudden confidence?

Long story short, PM suspicions discussion. Consistent disconnection in tone and vibe, and dgaf disengagement. I don't expect disconnection from an Elim team who is frankly not anywhere near pinned down or tied down so that emotional tone behind posts and engagement with the game doesn't make sense to me as coming from an Elim. If it were me, then yeah, disconnection is probably a huge neon red 'PROBABLY EVIL OR STRESSED AF BUT MOST LIKELY EVIL' sign but AFAIK, it doesn't make sense for an Elim. I don't believe we're anywhere near to having them on the ropes.

I don't deny it's possibly fallible as a read but it's what I'm working off. My current view is that most of what I have on Devo could go either way, but I can't see E!Devo being this out of it. My other take would be that I agree this isn't something people have access to so I accept if people disagree and wanna exe Devo. I just don't really feel like it's the right call here. It's where I'm currently at I guess.

Edited September 8, 2022 by Kasimir

[Mat he/him]

7 hours ago, JNV said:

I mean I guess Matrim apparently claimed to Kasimir in PMs but thats not public

 

2 hours ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

Can the person I gave the Fell Sword to say that I crafted a Fell Sword for them?

Son of Feanor, at your service. Nothing else, but I do have the Fell Sword. Probably too close to endgame to risk killing someone with it but at least I can testify Bookworm didn't kill last night. Elim kill, I mean :P.

Will have time for more later (Kas- I see you, understood) but not too much more (school) but I just wanted to get this out there.

[Kasimir he/him]

This was meant to be a second edit but I got ninjaed by Mat. I was just noting I don't usually do tone reads so the fact I'm voting Shining because I did have a moment of ??? tonal dissonance is probably a sign of how at the end of my tether I am.

But ok. Basic vote analysis I guess lesgo.

Cycle One:

Quote

Wiz (2): Danex, Conq
Danex (2): Wiz, Archer
Shining (1): JNV
Kas (1): Shining
Araris (1): Mat
TUN (1): Araris
Conq (1): Kas

Ignoring the delta, looking at what was public knowledge at rollover. Let's fill in what we know. For the sake of courtesy, I'll green highlight my name. 

Our top two trains are pure Village. We have two clusters for Melkor at this point:

1. Stable Side Train -> <JNV, Shining, Mat>

or

2. Who Needs To Vote Anyway? -> <TUN, Devo, Symph>

Revisited C1 impressions:

-TUN really stayed under the radar. 
-JNV asking Symph for items is consistent with their subsequent Son of Feanor claim, likely hoping for a Fell Sword.
-Conq offers an alternative: asks JNV if they'd be willing to go to Wiz for self-pres, saving Danex in the process. By this point, JNV is very quickly no longer endangered - Shining pulls off JNV a minute after Conq, while JNV wants Shining for vote volatility. I can kind of see why since JNV no longer needs to self-pres?
-Mat's votes are fairly stable and I'm /shrug about the stability of his Araris vote. (Btw, @Matrim's Dice, any particular reason you stayed on Araris C1 in light of the chaos near EoD?) I do like the thinking behind the Danex vote and unvote though.)
- @Fifth Scholar are you sure you remembered to put Melkor in this game .__.
-Devo making the sudden Archer push is still weird, and I have Had It with the crack Dannex theory, thank you Mat, and thank the Force I will never need to hear the crack Dannex theory again. The question is, is it Village weird or...?
-Symph is very fast to just claim Feanor. 

Cycle Two:

Quote

Araris (3): Conq, Danex, Mat
Mat (2): Archer, Araris
Devo (2): Shining, Kas
TUN (1): Symph

Revisted C2 impressions:

-Araris gets lynched in absentia again. RIP Araris.
-I don't disagree with the premise of Shining's Devo vote because I've been going to and fro on this repeatedly but I am just not sure which way to read this.
-Despite coming under threat, Devo feels no particular need to self-pres. Result of Conq and Danex simultaneously voting Araris? Or no fear of ties?
-Symph is coming across strongly as a new player and this matches Danex's impressions and tunnel (? Is it a tunnel if he right tho?) Possible deliberate play?
-TUN has run out of chulls to give and it is beautiful.
-Mat's vote is fairly stable.

Cycle Three:

Quote

TUN (3): Devo, Kas, Danex
Danex (2): Archer, Symph
Devo (2): Shining, Mat

Danex - TUN - Devo scramble. Thanks Archer. Enough said.

-Shining's vote fairly stable on Devo. Unclear if tunnel or...shift from earlier fluidity in C1 feels kind of notable tbh.
-IDK what to make of Symph's vote on Danex. Given Symph's experience, perfectly understandable.
-Seriously am I just tilted or is half the world seeing Danex sus when I'm not because nothing in C3 threw me off as much as Archer and Mat jointly insisting Danex could be sus and Symph jumping on board and now I'm wondering if I lost my sanity in C3 or something
-Okay you know what nevermind he's dead but I'm just wondering anyway.
-Mat being willing to swap off almost would have to suggest a Mat-Devo team - the only player he was gonna endanger was TUN, maybe Danex.

I wish I could feel like it is possible to wring insights out of this, but honestly my brain is just looping in and out of tired muttering. 

ngl if I think the only doubled role is Son of Feanor, then realistically my Melkor candidates exist in <Mat, Devo>, maybe <TUN> if we're theorising a shield. Of everyone I actually feel best about Devo and TUN.

I don't bloody know why. I don't bloody get it. Ok yes I have been going around and around and around about Devo and TUN and I don't know if it's shuffle squatting with Mat again but part of me just won't let it go. That yes okay effort clear, yes, looks Village but and I can't bloody seem to get on board with it and I don't bloody understand why.

Agggggggggggggggggggggh.

I'll try again later. I think it's clear I'm not making progress apart from understanding what it is like to bang my head repeatedly into walls.

Hi SE, I missed you -.-

[Mat he/him]

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

(Btw, @Matrim's Dice, any particular reason you stayed on Araris C1 in light of the chaos near EoD?) I do like the thinking behind the Danex vote and unvote though.)

It had more to do with my IRL circumstances around rollover than anything else. It was Labor Day and I was having a firepit/frisbee night with my family  I wasn't really able to process what the votes were doing to figure out if I wanted to move, then actually make the move, in the random times I had to check my phone. Though I had a fairly strong village read off of tone from my Dannex PM, and I was largely /shrug on Wiz, so I doubt I would have done anything anyway.

[The Unknown Medallion he/him]

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-TUN really stayed under the radar. 

Really? I felt like I was pretty standard activity levels for me. 

2 hours ago, Kasimir said:

-TUN has run out of chulls to give and it is beautiful.

I wasn't present for the time when you all decided to kill me, so I never felt in danger, and when I'm not in danger I could care less what I do.