Quick Fix Game 62: He Who Arises In Might

[Shining Silhouette]

7 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

This entire post is genius
Incredibly close to solving the entire game.

So yeah. TUN, Mat Shining
report to kas
please

 

I agree, it puts a lot of things into perspective that I hadn't thought of before. I'm pretty busy today, so I haven't had much time to process this info, but I think this is a breakthrough for the village.

Already done

I'll post again later this cycle and try to do some analysis after my schedule clears up...I'll try to break down Kas's post, maybe point out a couple things that stick out to me...right now something isn't going through but I think I'm just tired from school

(Side note: the pace in this game is quite different from the LG I just played- throwing me off a little. Especially since school's started and I have less free time )

[Kasimir]

33 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Yes, people can, AFAIK. You know my policy on outing people who don't want to out themselves though, so I will just say I'm aware of multiple cases.

Eh, actually I'll clarify this bit because why not, doesn't really matter - I started with a Jewel, so players can definitely start with items. Have not really used it because I haven't felt like slinging the Jewel at anyone, and I now have better things to do with my item action than bribe people. Mostly.

[Mat]

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Imagine how thrilled I am that Araris died before I could get a PM >>

Ah. RIP.

23 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

I made the shield claim at 1138hrs my time - JNV PMed me about making it at 1141hrs. It's worth noting that JNV asked me in a PM if I wanted a shield at 0809hrs (rollover takes place at 1000hrs for me.)

That to me seems close enough that it wouldn't be e!JNV jumping on an opportunity. Makes sense to me that at the very least they were involved in you getting a shield one way or another, and that probably means they're a Smith.

30 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Okay, this makes sense to me. It's a bit curious to me that this sort of nudges around the fact that taking the obvious vote because it still has to be done is very much a part of Araris's own meta, but I can see where this makes sense from a 'is he going after obvious low-hanging fruit' sort of angle. I still raise an eyebrow at the activity point but it's less a 'you're Evil' kind of eyebrow raise and more 'my brother in Eru, V!Araris has had low activity games before' kind of deal (hi early AG8!), so it's an outlier but IDK if it's one that'd trip my flag.

I don't remember meta past like two or three games unless it's a well known thing or something monumental, and I don't think I've ever made that connection before (though I will keep it in mind for later). And you know that as far as AG games though, identities never quite seperate from the animal accounts for me as far as meta goes xD

32 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

Question for you, Mat. Are you willing to lynch Danex this cycle?

Probably willing, yes. As I've mentioned many a time, haven't looked too closely at all the worlds, I've mostly been bouncing stuff back and forth in PMs and what you see in the thread, and now I've gotta do school, but I think there's enough there so that I wouldn't be actively against it. 

[SymphonianBookworm]

Is there anyone still questioning my identity as Feanor? 

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Only dual roles seem to be Sons of Feanor -> Shining's a noble and not Melkor unless he's jeweled Melkor who converted JNV C1. People seem so convinced TUN's not doing evil things. So sure. Mat's on the killer list and the Melkor list because he hasn't roleclaimed.

[Mat]

11 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

Is there anyone still questioning my identity as Feanor? 

Should we be?  

9 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Only dual roles seem to be Sons of Feanor -> Shining's a noble and not Melkor unless he's jeweled Melkor who converted JNV C1. People seem so convinced TUN's not doing evil things. So sure. Mat's on the killer list and the Melkor list because he hasn't roleclaimed.

I'm not convinced of that :P. I'm not convinced of anything, I don't think. And I claimed to Kas, but I still don't want to claim in thread. Is that why you're voting me, because I haven't claimed?

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

Because you're on the kill shortlist and the Melkor shortlist.

Kas clearly doesn't think your roleclaim was sufficient.

[Mat]

So like, reads are irrelevant then :P. And exceptions not entered into the equation. Cool. I think all factors should be considered, it's why I haven't snapvoted TUN since he's in both as well. Why me over him, for you?

[The Unknown Ajah]

11 hours ago, dannnnnnex said:

also

I know for a fact that I am not evil
so an elim must be in that trio of action-claimless people, at least from my perspective. 
TUN, most suspicious of you so far. have any actions to claim?

No. I'm a Sailor. 

Also, I think V!mat responds pretty aggressively to suspicion, but this feels like more than normal. 

[Mat]

9 minutes ago, The Unknown Novel said:

No. I'm a Sailor. 

Also, I think V!mat responds pretty aggressively to suspicion, but this feels like more than normal. 

Hmm. I'm not sure how likely I find a Sailor to exist at all when the elim team has to outnumber and they only can have two people in a game that started with twelve, but that's a claim I guess.

I can point to multiple games where I reacted stronger, don't push that point please, it's never been valid before and it won't start being valid now :P.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[The Unknown Ajah]

1 hour ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can point to multiple games where I reacted stronger, don't push that point please, it's never been valid before and it won't start being valid now :P.

I prefaced it for a reason. It feels a little stronger than normal, but it's well within the realm of believability. 

[Mat]

It’s too quiet.

Dannex

As an experiment. Isn’t the normal thing that the elims are comfortable when the thread is quiet? I don’t like it.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Matrim's Dice

[Kasimir]

3 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

I can point to multiple games where I reacted stronger, don't push that point please, it's never been valid before and it won't start being valid now :P.

M.R.5.0.

5 hours ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Kas clearly doesn't think your roleclaim was sufficient.

I'm working off action claims at the moment. If we look at roleclaims, AFAIK the only double role is Son of Feanor, but the question I suppose is, do we really want to risk Melkor just lying about his double role at this stage? (This is also why I want to look at verified alibis/actions instead, really.)

One way or another, the pool of people we have public and verifiable action claims of any sort are <Symph, JNV, Danex, Archer, Devo.> Danex roleblocked Devo, if this adds to another layer of the mess. 

If you think neither Danex nor I received a shield from Araris, and that Devo didn't have a Helm or wasn't Shielded, then everyone in that pool has at least some alibi when it comes to putting in the C2 kill.

<TUN, Mat, me, Shining> are all people who took no role actions, for various reasons. It doesn't mean that the first pool is cleared, but that if I'm willing to accept the alibis, then I pretty much have to look here and go by reads. My problem is I V!read Shining, /shrug TUN, and sorta V!read Mat which means I'm stuck as far as reads go because I don't seem to have a clear negative read to pursue. I'm fine with lynching among my /shrugs and sortas but that is not gameplay I am very satisfied with,

Suppose we do want to include role reasoning - suppose for the moment roles can't be doubled because I don't think there is a point looking at roles without this supposition. (FYI Mat, lone Sailor does seem plausible). The issue is that everyone left by nature is still going to be the Melkor pool, more or less, only that we'd add Devo back.

@The Unknown Novel What are your current reads?

Edited to add: 

35 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

As an experiment. Isn’t the normal thing that the elims are comfortable when the thread is quiet? I don’t like it.

It is. But also, two man team. I feel like any imprint we see would be smaller than normal.

Edited September 7, 2022 by Kasimir

[Shining Silhouette]

16 hours ago, Kasimir said:

I genuinely do not know what to think of TUN. Feel E!TUN is more conciliatory but it wouldn't be the first time a player changed playstyle.
 

On re-read, I once again lean Village on Devo - there's something more carefree about Devo's C2 engagement with the thread and the way she interjects that vibes more with her Village play. I fully expect to change my mind (and my read) for at least the next seventy times.
 

This is something I'm trying to keep in mind, the way that players change their playstyle. At first, I agreed with you and thought that Devo's playstyle was just being snarky and carefree, but it just feels so different from last game. Like intentionally different to me C1.

And then C2 and C3 they've seemed to shed that persona a bit, which makes me cautious. Maybe they were converted C1 and decided to change to become more conciliatory, more villagery. Or maybe they started out as Melkor and decided to change their playstyle after they converted. Or maybe they haven't converted yet, and are waiting to pocket one of us at the very end Nevermind, that's impossible. Still, I'm suspicious of them and am worried that they're floating under the radar. They're also voting purely on mech (as far as I can see, if you have other reasons lmk), which makes sense for V!Devo, but it also seems like an easy way to hide in-thread for E!Devo.  

So I feel like Devo is once again my best vote at this point. 

[Mat]

25 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

M.R.5.0.

Forgot this game— can you elaborate? I was thinking of that one where I thunderdomed against you and Aman at the same time

28 minutes ago, Kasimir said:

My problem is I V!read Shining, /shrug TUN, and sorta V!read Mat which means I'm stuck as far as reads go because I don't seem to have a clear negative read to pursue. I'm fine with lynching among my /shrugs and sortas but that is not gameplay I am very satisfied with,

So you’re instead better satisfied with voting a sorta v!read? Like— sure, I get why that’s annoying but for me, who I can’t think of a single alive player who actually has made an elim read of me (save for yours, which I explained), I’m left confused why I’m the leading train. Everyone seems fine following the mech info when there’s no guarantee of a lack of exceptions.

Actually, I’m not even sure what the VC is, lol.

I’ll have a few more pop ins but again probably won’t be on for rollover

[Shining Silhouette]

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Actually, I’m not even sure what the VC is, lol.

This is what I got after a quick scroll through (lmk if I missed any)

Dannex (2) - Archer, Mat

Mat (2) - Kas, Devo

TUN (1) - Dannex

Devo (1) - Shining

[Kasimir]

3 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Forgot this game— can you elaborate? I was thinking of that one where I thunderdomed against you and Aman at the same time

So you’re instead better satisfied with voting a sorta v!read? Like— sure, I get why that’s annoying but for me, who I can’t think of a single alive player who actually has made an elim read of me (save for yours, which I explained), I’m left confused why I’m the leading train. Everyone seems fine following the mech info when there’s no guarantee of a lack of exceptions.

Actually, I’m not even sure what the VC is, lol.

I’ll have a few more pop ins but again probably won’t be on for rollover

Yeah, that was MR50

I've highlighted where the alibi pool could potentially still have put in the kill, yes, but am disturbed that there's less engagement on reads in the pool. Mech and reads are supposed to work together.

Frankly, I feel as though my V read of you is powerfully effort based and that's why the sorta's there—I respect you as an Elim more than to be okay with a pure effort clear.

[Mat]

7 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

This is what I got after a quick scroll through (lmk if I missed any)

Huh, thanks. I’d forgotten Archer was voting dannnex lol

1 minute ago, Kasimir said:

Yeah, that was MR50

Frankly, I feel as though my V read of you is powerfully effort based and that's why the sorta's there—I respect you as an Elim more than to be okay with a pure effort clear.

Ah  Hopefully I learned my lesson after that, but yes.

Well, can’t help you there I suppose :P. If I need to die that’s fine, it’s not lylo— I’d just hope that people look more at those who didn’t think about reads at all in the cycles afterwards.

Obviously if my death is avoidable, ah, that’s ideal, though 

[Kasimir]

Just now, Matrim's Dice said:

Huh, thanks. I’d forgotten Archer was voting dannnex lol

Ah  Hopefully I learned my lesson after that, but yes.

Well, can’t help you there I suppose :P. If I need to die that’s fine, it’s not lylo— I’d just hope that people look more at those who didn’t think about reads at all in the cycles afterwards.

Obviously if my death is avoidable, ah, that’s ideal, though 

But also, eh, cards on the table. I was working off an E!you, E!Archer or at least quiet E!Archer theory. Archer's continued unwillingness to vote you in an actually lethal or near lethal way caught my attention. As I pointed out earlier, this is telling because his current working theory requires E!you, E!Dannex. 

So I was offering him a juicy Mat train and prodding to see if he'd bite. The irony is that I'd expect Archer to be fine with going for you in an E/V scenario but the precedence here is more: Mat Archer

I am okay with a Devo train as well. Final decision later.

[Mat]

I think out of Archer/Devo I prefer Devo, mostly because Archer is confirmably not Melkor and has extra vote power to swing it if the VC is close. The two of them are otherwise close enough. Devo’s got the half alibi but that doesn’t stand if she started with a Helm or Shield or is teamed with Dannex, which are both possible iirc. I don’t really see much point in staying on Dannex when that vote was more to stir the pot and wake up the thread than anything else, though if the exe was Dannex today I’d be fine with that.

[SymphonianBookworm]

I am going to vote for Danex for a couple reasons.
1. They tried to say that I had probably been converted so people should vote me off in C2. If he was an Elim, he could convert someone else and also try to kill Feanor. Two birds with one stone.
2. It's possible he was either A. corrupted, B. corrupted the person he read the conversation of, or C. is both Melkor and a Messenger, which would also be possible.

I plan to craft a Fell Sword for someone I have PMed, which I believe will finally prove my claim as Feanor.

I also plan to kill someone with my Fell Sword. I am still thinking of who.

[Devotary of Spontaneity]

44 minutes ago, Shining Silhouette said:

This is something I'm trying to keep in mind, the way that players change their playstyle. At first, I agreed with you and thought that Devo's playstyle was just being snarky and carefree, but it just feels so different from last game. Like intentionally different to me C1.

And then C2 and C3 they've seemed to shed that persona a bit, which makes me cautious. Maybe they were converted C1 and decided to change to become more conciliatory, more villagery. Or maybe they started out as Melkor and decided to change their playstyle after they converted. 

It is physically difficult for me to just say things, especially in post format. Let's start with saying that I put she/her in my title because I expect people to use those pronouns exclusively. Can't figure out the grammar here but you know what I mean.

Effort clear for Mat is for his Araris progression? @Kasimir No coherent indication of why Araris being able to prove his role wasn't satisfactory given his theory of Melkor Araris.

Archer's fairly confirmed as Orator, so isn't a high Melkor priority. I do think overlap of Melkor + kill is the way to go. Haven't given up on Shining + JNV though.

Mat's reading to me like he knows TUN is village, but then has to throw in that he could be elim because Mat knows that TUN's on the same shortlist as him and clearing TUN makes it more likely people will vote Mat. Definitely some conf bias here.

[Shining Silhouette]

1 minute ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

It is physically difficult for me to just say things, especially in post format. Let's start with saying that I put she/her in my title because I expect people to use those pronouns exclusively. Can't figure out the grammar here but you know what I mean.

I apologize, I hadn't noticed that. Noted, and will change in the future

[The Unknown Ajah]

9 minutes ago, SymphonianBookworm said:

1. They tried to say that I had probably been converted so people should vote me off in C2. If he was an Elim, he could convert someone else and also try to kill Feanor. Two birds with one stone.

That's kinda confbiasing.

1 hour ago, Kasimir said:

@The Unknown Novel What are your current reads?

Not liking Mat too much, but I'd rather Shining. You, Dannex, and Archer are all strongly v imo. Devo also seems good but their a good enough elim that I can't be sure.

[Mat]

6 minutes ago, Devotary of Spontaneity said:

Effort clear for Mat is for his Araris progression? @Kasimir No coherent indication of why Araris being able to prove his role wasn't satisfactory given his theory of Melkor Araris.

Mat's reading to me like he knows TUN is village, but then has to throw in that he could be elim because Mat knows that TUN's on the same shortlist as him and clearing TUN makes it more likely people will vote Mat. Definitely some conf bias here.

At the time I had him paired with Dannex, so the role wasn’t proveable at all. His claim came late in my progression anyway, late enough that my tunnel was deep enough that instead of backing out I burrowed further.

Not sure what that means— I pause on TUN because of his Sailor claim. If true, we waste a turn. If false, he’s Melkor. And I don’t have a strong enough TUN read to lean that either direction.

Will be mobile only and lower activity until the end of the turn.