Sart

7 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Nope, not gonna happen :P. I’m fairly confident this is real and I’m not about to set up another person to be NKd, already putting myself out there.

I don’t see how revealing them now does anything to change a 50/50 between us in the case of a village flip, honestly, it only serves the elims.

Okay, I'll bite. Matrim's Dice. Vorros. Makes Conq look a lot worse, and also makes me suspect Luck a fair amount.

After going through their Night 1 posts, I've flip-flopped on Conq. I'm currently reading them as Village. Unfortunately, they're currently voting on me. It makes sense as a retaliation vote, but it's not very productive. Making matters worse, Illwei fingered me as the most likely Elim. I'm not, but it means that I need to come up with an alternative candidate. The always lurking Xino is a tempting target, but that's standard village behavior for him. I'm going to vote for Matrim's Dice I really dislike that he accused me in both of his scenarios, regardless of Conq's alignment. In addition, I don't get his first post today. He's not known for CCs, so I was surprised when he said that Wizard would have been his first vote. I'm considering a Mat Araris team with a potential third in Vorros or Luck. Not sure on the newer players, but my gut has gone negative on the veterans.

Just now, Shining Silhouette said:

@Sart, Great minds think alike! Seems we went through the same process haha

Darn ninjas. Since you're here now, where are your suspicions leaning? I'm still sus on Conq, but that's more gut than anything. I need to go back and read through their posts.

Okay, let me sum up my thoughts on the whole vote manipulation situation. I think it is likely that we have a Forsaken, or at the very least, the elim team is pretending we have one. Looking at the rules, we can see that there are no soothe actions that can't also act as rioting actions. Thus, it seems highly unlikely that someone would change a vote to no vote, instead of changing it to the target of their choice. I see three scenarios:

• The Forsaken is myself, Araris or Xino. There was no vote redirection. This is possible, but I think it's unlikely. It draws attention onto a small pool of candidates, and helps with our process of elimination. It would also mean that yesterday was most likely a V/V scenario, which would not be something the bad guys want to highlight.
• There is no Forsaken. The elims removed a vote to make it seem like there was one, confusing our process of elimination. Interesting, but doubtful. This assumes there is an Aes Sedai among the Elims, but no Forsaken. Without the Forsaken guarantee, there would only be a 40% chance of that even working. I'll consider it if a vote fails to vanish on Day 2.
• The Forsaken used Compulsion. In this scenario, their vote didn't count, but they used someone else's vote as their own. For the sake of argument, let's say they voted on Illwei. The vote would look something like this:
  • Illwei (3): Forsaken, Bystander 1, 2, and 3
  • Conq (3): Bystander 4, Bystander 5, Target
• Assuming that the Forsaken has enough Spirit and that they didn't roll a 0 on any of their Ratings, they could use Compulsion, with a 100% chance of success, because of their role. Thus the vote count ended up like this.
  • Illwei (4): Forsaken, Bystander 1, 2, and 3, Target
  • Conq (2): Bystander 4 and 5
• This to me feels like the most likely scenario. We're essentially dealing with an E!Rioter. In addition, they don't have to use Compulsion, so it makes using vote count analysis extremely difficult. For all I know, it could even be Matrim who is screwing up the votes.

In conclusion, while i think it is a good idea to track vote manipulation, it can't be our only evidence for suspicion. As long as the Forsaken has the stats for it, they can really obscure what they're actually planning. Paradoxically, the people most likely not to be the Forsaken are the people who didn't vote, aka Silhouette and Wizard.

Okay, sorry for not getting on yesterday. I got distracted binging Sandman. There are several questions I have in regards to yesterday. First and foremost, why did Illwei die? They had the Blademaster role, which should have given them an extra life. Am I missing something here? @The Unknown Novel

Hello. I'm off work now, so let's get to it. I'd like to propose a different kill candidate. Conquestor. Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in. I'm leaning village towards Wizard at this point. Araris is well known for his stab votes (putting a second vote on a poke vote), so that's not an alignment indicator.

I'm always happy to help games that need a bit more players. Signing up.

2 minutes ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Speaking of which— you should have two results, right?

I'll tell you one of them. Bard is a Revolutionary. I was going to let him squirm for a little bit, but I suppose we don't have time for that.

Arthas smoothed back his hair. You know, in the course of being a Spy, it was tough to properly highlight his dashing good looks. Fortunately, he could now properly hog the spotlight.

"Hey, Linish (Young Bard), want to explain your claim of Adjunct? Your supposed teammates have never heard of you, and I'm starting to worry you might have been lying to me."

Yeah. This is the optimal play. TUO.

1 minute ago, Steeldancer said:

Spies can only detect current joined faction. So, no, they would not see a Infiltrator as an infiltrator, but rather as a Royalist Hawk or whatever they joined. 

Well, darn. Really hoping it was the other way around.

5 minutes ago, Fifth Scholar said:

I thought spending time with family would mean I’d come back to results but I guess the Exe is still going. I’m gonna take the coward’s route out and say that I am indifferent in this particular instance—I have both Mat and Elan on elim radar, would prefer to give Sart a cycle to verify his claims, and have committed to stabbing Araris and he himself would be mad at me if I pulled out the knife even though he probably wants Mat dead. I’ll stick where I am. 

I... what? You have Mat and Elan on your elim radar, but you're not voting for them? And you're letting me die, even though you want to verify my claims? Why? And frankly, how did you get Elan on your elim radar in the first place? They literally only just got active. I know I'm voting on Elan, but that's purely self-preservation. This just seems like fence sitting, going along with whatever the crowd's saying. It's too late to change my vote, but this is ringing alarm bells like crazy to me.

11 minutes ago, Elandera said:

Hm. I'm not entirely sure what to think of that claim. On the one hand, it would be useful, but basically only to Sart's faction. And this does not exclude Sart from being an Infiltrator. 

How does Mat's claim have any bearing on saving Sart?

Can we please stop with the public roleclaiming? That's a lot of information to be tossing about and handing over to enemy factions.

Oh great, I can't even justify my vote as a contribution crusade at this point. And I actually can't confirm my role, because I've been informed that Spying is a Night action. Gah... This late in the cycle, coming up with another candidate and getting enough votes on that train seems frankly ludicrous. Guess I'll see you guys in the dead doc.

Arthas was doomed. By forcing a vote on Samuel, he had directed the mob's attention towards himself. Even if he moved his vote in self-preservation, it was unlikely to save his skin. There was only one thing to do. It was time to be the worst spy in the history of spies.

------

Out of character, but ahhhhh!! I wanted to spark discussion, but not at the cost of my own life. Learning the theoretical win condition of the Followers of Edgli is great, but it doesn't remove the possibility of Matrim also being an Infiltrator. That being said, I recognize that my vote on him was a stretch. In my defense, it was a day one vote. I wanted to start discussion, and that post definitely did. More importantly, I have a reason why I shouldn't be killed. I'm a Spy. That means I can detect factions, and that presumably means I can detect Infiltrators. (I should really ask the GMs about that) I was going to keep that a secret, but there's no reason to if I'm going to die before I can use it. It's a really bad idea to kill me Day 1. I know this paints a target on my back, but please don't kill me. I can verify my role if I survive to the night.

I'll put on Elandera, because the Contribution Crusade is really my only hope at this point.

Arthas understood that math was important. Understanding how strong the various factions were could be the difference between life and death. However, it was all going over his head. These theories were interesting, but he couldn't see how they were producing any fruitful discussion.

What they needed to do was focus on the Infiltrators. Most people here were interested in seeing Hallandren thrive, but the Infiltrators only wanted to watch it burn. He had no doubt that they would attempt to kill someone tonight, disrupting the fragile balance between the various groups. The Infiltrators would have an information advantage, because they would be in more than one doc, and they would be ruthless with their kills. They needed to be cut down to size, and ignoring them to focus on inter-faction politics would be their demise.

Therefore, Arthas voted for Samuel (Matrim's Dice). He was the first one to bring up distributions. Plus, he also gave this bit of double speak.

15 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

Either way, we all have a common goal, and that’s the infiltrators— I think they can be caught by watching how loyal everyone is to their faction goal. So people should watch faction members in that regard. I don’t think the Infiltrators will be obvious about it, of course, but we should keep in mind that they have an ulterior goal.

He states that everyone has a common goal of the Infiltrators, so far I agree. But then he says that the Infiltrators will not follow their faction goals. Technically true, but it implies that the proper behavior is to focus on your faction goal. However, he just said we have a common goal in the Infiltrators. What's the correct behavior for a player? Is it to focus on the common threat, or to focus on the long term goals? In my opinion, it should be the former, but he implies the later. This will only divide us further, which we cannot afford.

I know they are in the rules, but would you mind posting the list of factions, so we can tell what our options are at a glance?

Arthas strode confidently into Hallandren. With the city in turmoil, it was clear he needed to pick a side. Any one man, despite his incredible looks and stunning intellect, would inevitably be cast aside. He needed a team.

Arthas brushed aside his flowing locks, enjoying the tropical wind on his face. It was good to be back in Hallandren.

Signing up.

Yo. Time for my traditional Pinch-Hitting vote analysis.

Day 1:

• Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ|
• Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian
• Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
• Amanuensis (1): Archer How is Archer's Vote in two separate places?
• Tani (1): Experience

Well, normally I would lean elim on the people who voted on Thaidakar, but this Day had elements of a bus. I'll have to read through this to get better reads.

Day 2:

• Illwei (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis
• Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling/Sart, Araris Valerian
• Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ|
• StrikerEZ (2): StrikerEZ, shadow1

Okay, two days in a row with an elim voted out. Nice! Assuming this isn't a bus, Matrim, Baker, and Bort all look pretty good here, while Kasimir and TJ look a bit sus.

Day 3:

• StrikerEZ (3): Bort, Tani, shadow1
• shadow1 (3): Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity
• Amanuensis (2): Amanuensis, Orlok Tsubodai
• Kasimir (1): The Baker
• Bort (1): |TJ|

And we killed a third one in a row. With this number of players, it's doubtful that this was a bus. In that case. Matrim and Devo look pretty much cleared.

Okay, based purely on vote counts, I'm going to put a vote on TJ. They voted on a villager Day 1. They voted on my strongest read for a villager Day 2. Day 3, they were the only vote on Bort. I'm skeptical that two elims would double up on the StrikerEZ train. I suspect they would want to start another train. Between The Baker and TJ, The Baker actually voted on Illwei, so I'm more inclined to trust them. I noticed Kas has TJ on his no vote list, but I'm curious as to why. What's given you such a good read of them?

Yuck. I totally flubbed this game. I picked up a Soothe on Night 4, and could have used it to stop the elim rush. I thought we had one more cycle before LyLo, and picked up Aluminum, which was totally useless. Still mad we lost to a 1 in 4 chance.

Well, I'll put a vote on Karn, although I suspect it doesn't matter. The Elims probably have enough vote manip to control this for the foreseeable future, but I'll try it anyway.

I really disagree with a Biplet vote, not because of their voting habits, but because of who voted against them. Archer voted on them Day 1, and then laid out an increasing amount of pressure in Night 2. I highly doubt that was distancing, and highly suspect that Archer was setting up another mis-exe.

Here's an interesting vote count (About halfway through Day 3):
Bort (3): JNV, Kasimir, Drake Marshall
Archer (2): Illwei, _Stick_
Szeth_Pancakes/Sart (1): Araris Valerian
_Stick_ (1): Archer
Drake Marshall (1): Tani

This obviously solidifies my trust in Drake and Illwei. Tani, despite voting Drake, actually "voted" for Archer on Night 2, which obviously didn't count. I highly suspect the elims would try to start a counter train in an E/E scenario. So, basically, I'm completely giving Araris the side eye.

My other alternative is Karnatheon. Why? Because Archer mentioned that Karnatheon was playing D&D with his wife. Problem is, Karnatheon never mentioned playing with his wife, he only mentioned playing D&D. It's either PM info, or an elim slip up from the doc. I don't know how active Karn or Archer was in PMs, but it's something worth investigating.

Alright, just joining in. Time for me to see what vote analysis gives me as a baseline. I'm not analyzing any posts right now, I'm just doing a shallow dive to see if anything sticks out.

Day 1:
The Unknown Aon (4): TJ, Thaidakar, Stick, Fifth Scholar
_Stick_ (2): Szeth_Pancakes/Sart, TUA
Biplet (1): Archer
Tani (1): Biplet
JNV (1): Araris Valerian
Matrim's Dice (1): Steeldancer
Steeldancer (1): Drake Marshall
Dannnex/Illwei (1): Karnatheon

Other than a good lean on Biplet, there's not much to go off of Day 1. Slight negative on Araris for voting on JNV, but that's minor.

Day 2:
Thaidakar the Ghostblood (6): Biplet, Archer, Drake Marshall, _Stick_, Araris Valerian, Kasimir
Steeldancer (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood
Archer (2): Steeldancer, |TJ|
Biplet (2): Matrim's Dice, Fifth Scholar

Well, with a vote on Archer Day 2, that makes TJ look a lot more trustworthy. Big Negative on Ffith though. If we assume there's one Elim on the TUA train, TJ seems unlikely, so blame falls to Fifth. In addition, they joined a counter train on Day 2, possibly to prevent a V/E scenario between Archer and Thaidakar.

Day 3:
Bort (15): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Araris Valerian, Steeldancer, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Orlok Tsubodai, Karnatheon, Haelbarde, _Stick_, Bort, Tani
Archer (1): Illwei

Runaway train alert. I'm presuming there was some sort of scan that happened.

Day 4:
Archer (10): Biplet, Araris Valerian, JNV, Archer, Kasimir, |TJ|, Drake Marshall, Karnatheon, Sequence, Tani
Karnatheon (1): Matrim's Dice

Yet another runaway train. Not sure how to get more info from this.

Well, the dive did promote a suspect in the form of Fifth. I'll have to read through the thread to get a better picture, but I'd keep a close eye on them.

Sorry for double posting. I finally figured out that first puzzle. I feel smart now.  @Ookla the Meta I'd be interested in an invite to your discord.

Yes. Hi, I looked this up, and spent way too much of my free time trying to solve some of these puzzles. I'm definitely interested now, and I think I have that weekend free.

Also: Have you guys tried the Prologue for the Mystery Hunt this year? I've filled out the grid for the first puzzle, but am unsure how to continue.

vote count:
danex/ookla the quantificational (1): archer/ookla the paranormal, tani/ookla of anarchy and chaos
archer/ookla the paranormal (1): szeth/ookla the confused, mage
tani/ookla of anarchy and chaos (0): kasimir
sart/ookla the lowercase (1): araris/ookla the porched
araris/ookla the porched (1): szeth/ookla the confused, kasimir
mage (2): kasimir, archer/ookla the paranormal

sorry for going a bit inactive; this weekend was busy for me. i've been trying to browse on mobile, and now is the time to make a vote now that i'm back home. unfortunately, we're operating at an information deficit. to counteract that, i'm going to make some assumptions.

• assumption 1: all villagers have an extra life. i know i have one, and three people have survived death. it's clear we're dealing with a troll gm
• assumption 2: all elims have an extra life. if they didn't, once one of them died to a single hit, we could easily clear a wide swathe of players.
• assumption 3: all villagers have a one-shot kill. i have one, kas is claiming one, illwei knew about them, and szeth used his.
• assumption 4: the elims do not have one-shot kills. my reasoning is simple. if you check the rules that were posted, mat said, quote, " The Feruchemists have a doc to communicate, and a kill each Night." having both a standard night kill in addition to one-shot kills is simply too much firepower.
• assumption 5: the elims have other powers. even with extra lives, there's a lot of fire power being thrown around. to balance the game, they would need some extra minor power. perhaps a one-time vote manipulation or a one-time lurch? in addition, this game is flavored as feruchemy vs alchemy. it would be odd if the powers were exactly the same on both sides.

my conclusion is simple. szeth_pancakes is a feruchemist. they claimed a power other than a kill, hoping to blend in with a low-key claim. they made an incorrect assumption based on the information found in their doc. i've always preferred to use role analysis to guide my votes, and i think this is a sound deduction. szeth, do you have a rebuttal? what power are you claiming to have besides a kill?