Sart

I see. Devotary of Spontaneity. Araris Valerian That is a flaw in this analysis. I was presuming that, and after getting GM clarification, that's not a great assumption. I forgot about the Red Ajah not bonding anyone. However, I did get an interesting piece of information. The Forsaken is not bonded to a Warder. We know Wizard had to be bonded with someone, and no one's counter claimed Conquestor's claim. In addition, there have been votes missing for the past two rounds. If the elim team doesn't have a Forsaken, there's only a 16% chance of them being able to fake that, and presuming that a vote vanishes this cycle, that chance rapidly approaches zero. So, role analysis. Luck and I are bonded. Presuming you're telling the truth, Silhouette and Mat were bonded. Given the lack of CC, Conq and Wizard were bonded as well. Where's the Forsaken? It can only be Xino, Devo, or Araris. Xino is claiming Aes Sedai. If they have a Warder, it's whoever isn't their Warder. If Xino doesn't have a Warder, it's one of those three. Xino was getting voted out by Vorros, so I doubt it's them. Devo hasn't claimed yet, but I would really appreciate it. Araris is refusing to. I'm going to vote on the person who isn't telling us anything.

Alright, time to do some role analysis. We definitely have an Elim Aes Sedai in the mix, considering that votes have vanished for the past 2 cycles. It's probably a Forsaken, but there's an unlikely chance that the Elim team is faking that for some reason. What that means is simple: I'm not voting for anyone who isn't an Aes Sedai. I'm going to assume that Aes Sedai have a paired Warder. I don't know if that's true in general, or if the Forsaken would have a Warder paired with them. In either case, the role list looks like this: Pair 1: Shining Silhouette (Aes Sedai) Matrim (Warder) Pair 2: Conquestor (Aes Sedai) Wandering Wizard (Warder) Pair 3: Xino (Aes Sedai?) One of Araris or Devo (Warder) Pair 4: Sart (Aes Sedai) Luckspren (Warder) Misc: Vorros (Blademaster) Illwei (Blademaster) The other of Araris and Devo (Unknown) By the way, yes, I am claiming to be an Aes Sedai. I can back up Xino's claim that Conquestor did not appear to take any physical actions, I also saw Araris take no physical actions last night as well. Let's wrap this up. @xinoehp512 Who is your Warder? I know it's Araris or Devo, so who is it? @Araris Valerian and @Devotary of Spontaneity What are your roles? I know one of you is a Warder. What is the other one claiming? Devotary of Spontaneity. I saw you just posted. Are you Xino's Warder?

You've just contradicted yourself. You didn't want to do a physical action on N1 because it would interfere with your weave, but you did a physical action on D1 and weaved at the same time. I can argue thought processes all day long, but this is too much. I'm keeping my vote where it's at.

Okay... what did you channel? That's kind of the important part.

...wait, that's a good point. @Matrim's Dice you're claiming that the scan saw both a role-block and a kill? The only way that's possible is if Vorros is an E!Blademaster. That's not... not possible, but it would be rather surprising. The other alternative is that the scan saw an Earthquake/Harden Air weave, but that doesn't make sense according the wording of Trace. Let me get GM clarification. @The Unknown Novel does Trace also detect Weave actions, such as Earthquake or Harden Air? Also, does it reveal targets for the actions that were done? That would be a valuable piece of info.

I mean... let me do the math here. Best case scenario for the elims, there's 3 of them. It's 6 to 3 right now. We kill V!Vorros, so it goes to 5 to 3. Elims get their kill in properly. 4 to 3. 50-50 scenario, with potential for vote manipulation shenanigans. It's doable, but extremely risky, and I'm not sure that's warranted at this stage of the game. There hasn't been a runaway target this Day turn, so the elims could have just subtly pushed in the wrong direction, rather than going for a big gambit.

Okay, I'll bite. Matrim's Dice. Vorros. Makes Conq look a lot worse, and also makes me suspect Luck a fair amount.

After going through their Night 1 posts, I've flip-flopped on Conq. I'm currently reading them as Village. Unfortunately, they're currently voting on me. It makes sense as a retaliation vote, but it's not very productive. Making matters worse, Illwei fingered me as the most likely Elim. I'm not, but it means that I need to come up with an alternative candidate. The always lurking Xino is a tempting target, but that's standard village behavior for him. I'm going to vote for Matrim's Dice I really dislike that he accused me in both of his scenarios, regardless of Conq's alignment. In addition, I don't get his first post today. He's not known for CCs, so I was surprised when he said that Wizard would have been his first vote. I'm considering a Mat Araris team with a potential third in Vorros or Luck. Not sure on the newer players, but my gut has gone negative on the veterans.

Darn ninjas. Since you're here now, where are your suspicions leaning? I'm still sus on Conq, but that's more gut than anything. I need to go back and read through their posts.

Okay, let me sum up my thoughts on the whole vote manipulation situation. I think it is likely that we have a Forsaken, or at the very least, the elim team is pretending we have one. Looking at the rules, we can see that there are no soothe actions that can't also act as rioting actions. Thus, it seems highly unlikely that someone would change a vote to no vote, instead of changing it to the target of their choice. I see three scenarios: The Forsaken is myself, Araris or Xino. There was no vote redirection. This is possible, but I think it's unlikely. It draws attention onto a small pool of candidates, and helps with our process of elimination. It would also mean that yesterday was most likely a V/V scenario, which would not be something the bad guys want to highlight. There is no Forsaken. The elims removed a vote to make it seem like there was one, confusing our process of elimination. Interesting, but doubtful. This assumes there is an Aes Sedai among the Elims, but no Forsaken. Without the Forsaken guarantee, there would only be a 40% chance of that even working. I'll consider it if a vote fails to vanish on Day 2. The Forsaken used Compulsion. In this scenario, their vote didn't count, but they used someone else's vote as their own. For the sake of argument, let's say they voted on Illwei. The vote would look something like this: Illwei (3): Forsaken, Bystander 1, 2, and 3 Conq (3): Bystander 4, Bystander 5, Target Assuming that the Forsaken has enough Spirit and that they didn't roll a 0 on any of their Ratings, they could use Compulsion, with a 100% chance of success, because of their role. Thus the vote count ended up like this. Illwei (4): Forsaken, Bystander 1, 2, and 3, Target Conq (2): Bystander 4 and 5 This to me feels like the most likely scenario. We're essentially dealing with an E!Rioter. In addition, they don't have to use Compulsion, so it makes using vote count analysis extremely difficult. For all I know, it could even be Matrim who is screwing up the votes. In conclusion, while i think it is a good idea to track vote manipulation, it can't be our only evidence for suspicion. As long as the Forsaken has the stats for it, they can really obscure what they're actually planning. Paradoxically, the people most likely not to be the Forsaken are the people who didn't vote, aka Silhouette and Wizard.

Okay, sorry for not getting on yesterday. I got distracted binging Sandman. There are several questions I have in regards to yesterday. First and foremost, why did Illwei die? They had the Blademaster role, which should have given them an extra life. Am I missing something here? @The Unknown Novel

Hello. I'm off work now, so let's get to it. I'd like to propose a different kill candidate. Conquestor. Your post just felt like a regurgitation of what had already been discussed in thread, in an attempt to blend in. I'm leaning village towards Wizard at this point. Araris is well known for his stab votes (putting a second vote on a poke vote), so that's not an alignment indicator.

I'm always happy to help games that need a bit more players. Signing up.

I'll tell you one of them. Bard is a Revolutionary. I was going to let him squirm for a little bit, but I suppose we don't have time for that.

Arthas smoothed back his hair. You know, in the course of being a Spy, it was tough to properly highlight his dashing good looks. Fortunately, he could now properly hog the spotlight. "Hey, Linish (Young Bard), want to explain your claim of Adjunct? Your supposed teammates have never heard of you, and I'm starting to worry you might have been lying to me."

Yeah. This is the optimal play. TUO.

Well, darn. Really hoping it was the other way around.

I... what? You have Mat and Elan on your elim radar, but you're not voting for them? And you're letting me die, even though you want to verify my claims? Why? And frankly, how did you get Elan on your elim radar in the first place? They literally only just got active. I know I'm voting on Elan, but that's purely self-preservation. This just seems like fence sitting, going along with whatever the crowd's saying. It's too late to change my vote, but this is ringing alarm bells like crazy to me.

Oh great, I can't even justify my vote as a contribution crusade at this point. And I actually can't confirm my role, because I've been informed that Spying is a Night action. Gah... This late in the cycle, coming up with another candidate and getting enough votes on that train seems frankly ludicrous. Guess I'll see you guys in the dead doc.

Arthas was doomed. By forcing a vote on Samuel, he had directed the mob's attention towards himself. Even if he moved his vote in self-preservation, it was unlikely to save his skin. There was only one thing to do. It was time to be the worst spy in the history of spies. ------ Out of character, but ahhhhh!! I wanted to spark discussion, but not at the cost of my own life. Learning the theoretical win condition of the Followers of Edgli is great, but it doesn't remove the possibility of Matrim also being an Infiltrator. That being said, I recognize that my vote on him was a stretch. In my defense, it was a day one vote. I wanted to start discussion, and that post definitely did. More importantly, I have a reason why I shouldn't be killed. I'm a Spy. That means I can detect factions, and that presumably means I can detect Infiltrators. (I should really ask the GMs about that) I was going to keep that a secret, but there's no reason to if I'm going to die before I can use it. It's a really bad idea to kill me Day 1. I know this paints a target on my back, but please don't kill me. I can verify my role if I survive to the night. I'll put on Elandera, because the Contribution Crusade is really my only hope at this point.

Arthas understood that math was important. Understanding how strong the various factions were could be the difference between life and death. However, it was all going over his head. These theories were interesting, but he couldn't see how they were producing any fruitful discussion. What they needed to do was focus on the Infiltrators. Most people here were interested in seeing Hallandren thrive, but the Infiltrators only wanted to watch it burn. He had no doubt that they would attempt to kill someone tonight, disrupting the fragile balance between the various groups. The Infiltrators would have an information advantage, because they would be in more than one doc, and they would be ruthless with their kills. They needed to be cut down to size, and ignoring them to focus on inter-faction politics would be their demise. Therefore, Arthas voted for Samuel (Matrim's Dice). He was the first one to bring up distributions. Plus, he also gave this bit of double speak. He states that everyone has a common goal of the Infiltrators, so far I agree. But then he says that the Infiltrators will not follow their faction goals. Technically true, but it implies that the proper behavior is to focus on your faction goal. However, he just said we have a common goal in the Infiltrators. What's the correct behavior for a player? Is it to focus on the common threat, or to focus on the long term goals? In my opinion, it should be the former, but he implies the later. This will only divide us further, which we cannot afford.

I know they are in the rules, but would you mind posting the list of factions, so we can tell what our options are at a glance? Arthas strode confidently into Hallandren. With the city in turmoil, it was clear he needed to pick a side. Any one man, despite his incredible looks and stunning intellect, would inevitably be cast aside. He needed a team.

Arthas brushed aside his flowing locks, enjoying the tropical wind on his face. It was good to be back in Hallandren. Signing up.

Yo. Time for my traditional Pinch-Hitting vote analysis. Day 1: Archer (4): Kasimir, Amanuensis, shadow1, Devotary of Spontaneity Thaidakar the Ghostblood (4): Matrim's Dice, Archer, The Baker, |TJ| Devotary of Spontaneity (2): StrikerEZ, Araris Valerian Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood Amanuensis (1): Archer How is Archer's Vote in two separate places? Tani (1): Experience Well, normally I would lean elim on the people who voted on Thaidakar, but this Day had elements of a bus. I'll have to read through this to get better reads. Day 2: Illwei (4): Matrim's Dice, The Baker, Bort, Amanuensis Devotary of Spontaneity (3): JNV, The Sibling/Sart, Araris Valerian Matrim's Dice (3): Illwei, Kasimir, |TJ| StrikerEZ (2): StrikerEZ, shadow1 Okay, two days in a row with an elim voted out. Nice! Assuming this isn't a bus, Matrim, Baker, and Bort all look pretty good here, while Kasimir and TJ look a bit sus. Day 3: StrikerEZ (3): Bort, Tani, shadow1 shadow1 (3): Matrim's Dice, StrikerEZ, Devotary of Spontaneity Amanuensis (2): Amanuensis, Orlok Tsubodai Kasimir (1): The Baker Bort (1): |TJ| And we killed a third one in a row. With this number of players, it's doubtful that this was a bus. In that case. Matrim and Devo look pretty much cleared. Okay, based purely on vote counts, I'm going to put a vote on TJ. They voted on a villager Day 1. They voted on my strongest read for a villager Day 2. Day 3, they were the only vote on Bort. I'm skeptical that two elims would double up on the StrikerEZ train. I suspect they would want to start another train. Between The Baker and TJ, The Baker actually voted on Illwei, so I'm more inclined to trust them. I noticed Kas has TJ on his no vote list, but I'm curious as to why. What's given you such a good read of them?

Yuck. I totally flubbed this game. I picked up a Soothe on Night 4, and could have used it to stop the elim rush. I thought we had one more cycle before LyLo, and picked up Aluminum, which was totally useless. Still mad we lost to a 1 in 4 chance.