RedBlue

Hoid says this about Tress making progress toward breaking his curse (Chapter 42): That implies Hoid had been in that state for about a year. (Assuming Ulaam was part of the plan from the beginning, which seems reasonable.) He also says this about his plan to gain Elantrian powers (Chapter 64): It sounds like Hoid came to Riina, not the other way around. So whatever Riina is doing (or not doing), Hoid is not the reason she went to Lumar or set up the tower.

There is a fairly sizeable thread discussing this question over on the cosmere spoiler board. It hasn’t reached a consensus. My personal thoughts are (mild spoilers for Mistborn, not including TLM):

Hoid reveals nothing directly about the audience except that their planet has a reasonable amount of nautical experience and has normal oceans. That could be almost anyone. Also, I’m sorry to nitpick, but Hoid doesn’t say that the audience’s planet has been invaded by ships. He says that ships have landed. Here’s the quote: In the late cosmere, any planet could have interstellar ships land in order to trade, explore or just establish contact. So, again, this could be anyone. I agree that Hoid is frequently cryptic to the people around him, and makes references they won’t understand. But the way he’s telling this story implies, I think, that he means to be understood. He goes out of his way to explain some things, like the Luhel bond, the fluidisation and the rain, the iron and steel sprouting tools, the way dragons spread legends of themselves, etc. Why explain some things in detail if you don’t mean to be understood?

Hoid’s whole plan hinged on manipulating Riina to act exactly as he needed her to. There’s no way he didn’t do his homework. As Hoid says, the aethers are more useful in other forms, and easier to harvest from the moons than the planet. If Riina’s primary goal is to make money, why is she here? What if a capable person turns up and tries to murder you? That’s a risk you run no matter where you are in the cosmere. The spores don’t pose a significant risk to Riina relative to the environmental hazards, visitors and locals she might run into elsewhere. (If Riina were smarter, she would reduce the risk of revenge plots by being less awful to the inhabitants of the planet she’s settled on, but clearly her self-preservation instincts don’t go that far.) More generally, the impression I got from Riina wasn’t that she’s an enterprising person with plans in motion. It seemed a lot more like she was hanging out and messing around. Because that’s all we see her doing, until she realises she’s facing a legitimate threat, at which point she runs away without a fuss.

Hoid makes references to two other names he has used, Wit and Cephandrius. (Chapter 52) Given that the audience is familiar with three names for Hoid, I think we should assume that the audience knows the names because they know about Hoid in general, and not because they’ve picked up stories about him from a specific planet. Otherwise, we could argue that they must be from Yolen just as much as Roshar, and that doesn’t make sense.

I agree that, theoretically, offworlders could be running some kind of interplanetary trade from Lumar without the natives knowing. But there’s no evidence of that happening in the text. If Riina were harvesting and selling spores, or doing any similar business on Lumar, it would be strange for Hoid not to mention it. Here’s how he describes Lumar in chapter 42: Granted, Hoid could be concealing the fact that someone is covertly selling Lumarian aethers. But that would be a missed chance at foreshadowing, which is unlike Hoid. And as for Riina’s sense of self-preservation, the midnight spores aren’t a threat to someone of her level of ability.

I could be wrong, but my understanding is that there will be increased cosmere awareness and connectivity during Era 3, but no interstellar travel through the Physical Realm. It’s 1980s ish tech levels. Riina (the Sorceress) has a functioning interstellar spaceship in the story, some time before Hoid tells it, and she’s not even a major player in the grand scheme of things. I think the ‘speaking minds’ comment was not because the audience is unfamiliar with spaceships or AI in general. They’re just unfamiliar with the way these specific types of spaceship and AI work. Probably because Scadrians are used to tech being fully mechanical, while other cultures use ‘spirits’ (eg spren or seons) and that feels alien.

Is there any evidence of organised or regular trade between Lumar and other planets? It seemed to me that the crew of the Crow’s Song would be more aware of other planets, and the goods that come from them, if that were the case. The level of cosmere awareness they have seems more consistent with sporadic visitors than actual trade. As for the original question — I don’t think Riina has a goal. She left Lumar far too easily for it to have been important to her to be there. Not everyone is on a long-term quest like Hoid. Sometimes, someone’s ambitions are thwarted, and they give up. Some people just settle down, muck about and enjoy life. That seems to be what Riina has fallen into. She’s a medium-sized fish who moved into a small pond so she could pretend to be a leviathan.

I’m pretty convinced that the people he’s talking to are Era 4 Scadrians. As Stormguy mentioned, they’re familiar with advanced tech like laptops, and Hoid references some religious beliefs that seem specific to Scadrial, eg Ironeyes. (He also references the idea of people being created by Shards, which is not generally true or believed outside of Scadrial) The biggest hint, IMO, is that he refers to himself as a Worldbringer. (Chapter 24) Hoid is not literally a Worldbringer in the historical sense, so he’s speaking metaphorically. The references to Scadrian religion, and describing himself using a Scadrian term, looks like strong evidence that he is ‘localising’ the story for a Scadrian audience. It also makes sense that he would be speaking to space age Scadrians, given that Brandon has said Hoid will have a major role in Mistborn Era 4.

I like your theory. Moonlight’s suggestion of stealing the other 15 artworks/Shards would correspond to a Shard that wants to absorb all the others. What that Shard would become at the end of that is unclear — they probably wouldn’t know themselves. I’m fairly sure no Shard is currently attempting this, since Harmony is the only merged Shard around right now. Enough time has passed that, if a Shard were actively trying to merge, they would have to have gotten somewhere by now. I don’t think that what Autonomy or Hoid are doing counts as ‘stealing the others’. Autonomy is copying herself rather than stealing, and Hoid’s collecting of different types of ‘magic’ doesn’t seem to fit the ‘stealing’ metaphor either. I think it’s likely that we’ll see Shards adopt new, more aggressive strategies as the cosmere goes forward and more conflicts develop.

Again, nice analysis. IMO, trade with other planets is the way to go for First of the Sun. The Aviar are a valuable resource that can’t be found anywhere else, and can’t be bred offworld since they need access to the shardpool to develop their powers. Aviar could be traded for resources and tech, which First of the Sun really needs going into the space age.

Very heavily implied by recent spoiler stream. Makes me pretty excited for the eventual Elantris sequel

Nice analysis. The only thing I have to add is that Autonomy appears to have already successfully seeded an Avatar there (Jaddeth). Difficult to say how much of a threat that is since we don’t have much info, but it’s a notable hole in Sel’s defences.

Fair

We see that Harmony is being followed around by a sometimes-visible, sometimes-not shadowy ‘other self’ that mirrors him. The ‘other self’ is called Discord. - The Lost Metal, chapter 66 - The Lost Metal, Kelsier’s epilogue So, putting the pieces together, a clear picture emerges of what’s going on here: Harmony is struggling to reconcile the differences between Ruin and Preservation. Sazed wants to remain Harmony, and maintain a kind of equilibrium to protect Scadrial. But he’s losing ground, and he’s getting closer and closer to becoming a different version of his Shard: Discord. This would mean dealing with the conflict between Ruin and Preservation differently (not ‘controlling’ it in the same way). The Intent of Sazed’s Shard would change from Harmony to Discord. That’s what we know, or can reasonably infer, so far. Here’s my weird speculation: what if Discord is actually not a bad thing? The imagery we have for Discord is shadowy and ominous, but what if that’s misleading? Dark doesn’t mean evil. Discord hasn’t shown up yet, so the only reason we have to feel concerned is that Sazed is fighting against it - and much as Sazed is a great guy, his judgement is not the greatest right now. On the other hand, Harmony has given us plenty of reason to feel concerned. He lies and withholds information when he shouldn’t. The whole Lessie incident was very troubling. He very nearly failed to protect Scadrial from Autonomy, and doesn’t seem able to understand what went wrong or how to fix it. He worries (with good reason) that his way of handling the Catacendre was not good for the development of Scadrian society, but again, he doesn’t seem able to course-correct. Most of Harmony’s flaws stem from a difficulty in taking action. He’s being pulled in two directions, so instead of acting decisively, he dithers, delegates and exerts subtle influence. Instead of making necessary changes, he desperately clings to the status quo. This doesn’t look like something Sazed can improve or work on - it’s inherent to the Intent of the Shard. That’s just how Harmony is. Which is a problem, given the threats facing Scadrial. What if Discord is what Scadrial needs? What if, instead of maintaining the equilibrium, there were a better way to resolve the conflict between Ruin and Preservation? One that uses the conflict as a driving force, maybe, so that the Shard can still take action while avoiding the worst excesses of Ruin and Preservation. Discord could be much more suited to lead Scadrial into the cosmere’s space age than Harmony. And if Discord causes some discord on Scadrial? I think people, and society, can handle discord. Thoughts? Am I totally wrong about Harmony and Discord? Or have I cracked the code?

This is correct for how atoms work in the real world - electrons can only exist in distinct shells with specific energy levels, so when an electron moves down to a lower shell, it emits light at a very specific frequency. There are only so many shells, so light is only emitted at so many frequencies. As we saw in the book, the god metals don’t do that. Together with what Brandon has said about atium atoms being ‘normal matter but wrapped in the spiritual’, I think we can make a few guesses about what’s going on. I think that, when a god metal is heated, the electrons in the metal are not emitting energy at all (otherwise, we would see more spikes rather than a flat line on the spectrogram). The light/energy is being emitted by something else - the Spiritual/magical component of the metal. Either the electrons are transferring all their excess energy to the Spiritual component (spiritons?) or the electrons aren’t doing anything at all, and only the spiritons are absorbing the energy. Then what is with the one red spike we see bavadinium emitting? Less likely idea: electrons are actually moving between two shells, and only two shells, creating one line. This would be very, very weird behaviour for an electron. More likely idea: the spiritons just have one specific frequency they really, really like. Maybe because it’s hard-coded into the Identity of the metal. Each Shard seems to have their own specific colour, which corresponds to this frequency. If the god metals interact with things they come into contact with sometimes via electrons (like normal metals) and sometimes via spiritons, this could be a handy way of explaining how the god metals are technically matter, but still act in physics-breaking ways in certain situations.

TBH I don’t see why people are theorising that the Ghostbloods who Steris met at the docks might be Skybreakers. One of them asks whether Steris’ instruction is legal, which seems like a thing any ordinary person might do. They can fly and sink large ships quickly, which is something a bunch of Coinshots can do. It seems much more likely to me that they’re local Allomancers who have been recruited into the Ghostbloods. Is there a reason to assume they’re anything more exotic than that?

Kelsier’s epilogue says that lerasium won’t work on Kelsier. He wants lerasium to make regular people into mistborn, so that they can be ready to defend Scadrial next time an aggressive outside force shows up. He’s looking for alternative methods to give himself his powers back. But yeah, I do wonder why he thought it was a good idea to lie to his new crew about his abilities. It seems like that could backfire on him really easily, and he has no good out.

I doubt we will be seeing any more of Telsin. Most of what made her interesting as an antagonist was her personal relationship with Wax. There’s no narrative reason for her to still be around in Era 3.

It’s not just the technological advancement that makes them a target. Harmony’s existence, as a double Shard, draws attention. Even if there was a point when flying under the radar was an option, that point has passed. Autonomy is gunning for Scadrial now, and they need to prepare or get wiped out (or taken over). Arms races don’t end well, but being invaded by a technologically much superior power would be much, much worse. I agree that making alliances with other planets should be a priority for Harmony, and doing that properly will require interstellar travel. As Kelsier said, going through Shadesmar is not reliable for large numbers of people. And alliances will not be very meaningful if there is no viable way to move large numbers of non-specialists between planets.

The banter was really well done. Wayne is hilarious, and while his crassness pushes the limits of good taste in places, I never felt that it was overdone. Marasi is fantastic and I really enjoyed the way she played against the Ghostbloods. I like that she’s a character who stands for rule of law, using social science and the power of bureaucracy for good. I hope we have someone continuing her legacy in Era 3, to push back against Kelsier’s anti-government tendencies. Autonomy is really interesting. I like the conflict between promoting individuality and forcing said individuality to conform to a template. Having this be reflected in Bilming and its physical structures is really neat - corporate ‘uniqueness’ is super unsettling. Whatever is going on with Harmony is intriguing. I love that, with all this power, all this knowledge, and all these good intentions, Harmony is still very worrying and untrustworthy. And I want to meet his evil twin. The actual plot was good too!

I don’t think that’s quite the point that Kelsier is making. It’s not really about the disaster that was just averted - it’s about the fact that Scadrial is still facing an existential threat that they are nowhere near ready to deal with. The question of whether Scadrian society will be better off in the long term with less intervention from Harmony is a bit moot if Kelsier is correct. If Autonomy or someone similar is coming to destroy them, the Scadrians need advanced tech (and Metalborn) now. Speed is more important than letting discoveries happen organically. You can’t have a natural technological revolution if everyone is dead.

The impression I got from Wax’s epilogue was that the Malwish don’t have access to trellium. Harmonium is sourced from only the southern continent, which cut off the northern continent’s supply. But the Basin has enough stockpiled to be dangerous. I assume that Autonomy arranged for the Set to get hold of some trellium, so now that Autonomy has withdrawn (for now), there’s no more where that came from. The Basin only has a tiny amount left over. That will be very limiting in terms of trying to weaponise it. (Though the Malwish might not know how trellium works or how much there is/isn’t, so it might be possible to bluff them?)

Interesting that Kelsier is talking a big game about not keeping secrets from his ‘family’ while deliberately misleading them about something fairly important. Presumably, Marsh and Sazed are the only ones who know. (Though maybe Hoid and some of the Silverlight people know enough about how Investiture works that they could figure it out.) Will be interesting to see if this causes a rift in the Ghostbloods when this info comes to light. I would be pretty ticked off to find out I’d been lied to after the promises Kelsier makes during recruitment. And if he tried to argue that he didn’t lie, he just let people make assumptions, I would not be impressed.

I take the ‘king is Dalinar’s Tien’ thing to mean that Kaladin is learning to see Elhokar as a person, not as just an enemy or a bad king. In Kaladin’s mind, Elhokar is no longer defined by his job and his incompetence. He is an incompetent king, but he’s also a fallible human who does what he can with what his life throws at him. This doesn’t mean he deserves to be king, or that he should keep being the king. But being a bad king doesn’t mean Elhokar deserves to die, any more than Tien being a bad soldier meant he deserved to die.