James Brafin
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Everything posted by James Brafin
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Burnt I feel like this is convoluted, but If Burnt!Elim, this clears Dannex for certain, which then clears Greys, right? Edit: I have to leave for a class right now, so I'm locking in. Okay? No more changing. This is my move. I feel like given what I know and believe this makes the most sense to me.
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AHHHHH Dannex
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We're hoping to clear 2 with this, or ascertain that the last Elim is between Devo and me. @Matrim's Dice, @Breaker, what would the two of you rather do?
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Does anyone see harm in this? Because I don't
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Yes, I thought we were doing a double to end things. I was getting ready to switch when I saw this post actually. Devo Dannex (To be clear this is as I am agreeing with Gears that the single is better than the double) I was hoping to double with Devo and I to clear you once and for all, but Gears makes a strong point -- if we all agree that Dannex+Devo or Burnt are mechanically the only two options, then this tells us pretty simply how we move forward while minimizing town kills
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Hmmm. I want to trust Order, but I don't know that I have a reason to now that you point it out. I really haven't seen anything quantitative from them all game. I'd... I'd be more okay with this than a lot of the others actually. Only problem is that it takes two cycles, which means a free kill tonight, unless y'all hit me too. Still, I'm willing.
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You're just tunneling at this point for no good reason. You're looking for reasons for me to be Elim, when this is a situation where Occam's Razor applies. It's not even worth arguing at this point: If I tampered Quinn, it would have been clear that I was elim, but since I didn't tamper Quinn... it's also clear that I'm Elim? Come on. It's just confbias. It's not worth arguing with you at this point because you're exactly right; it's incredibly tinfoily, it assumes that the Elim team is playing three steps ahead of Town. I repeat this here, should we see no change I'm 100% willing to switch here and get shrekked when Devo does. And I will also repeat, when we both drop as village, please please please start questioning Dice and their motivations. We've gone beyond town!tunneling at this point. You're looking for reasons to get me shot. @Gears I am only marginally happier with Dannex than I am with Devo. If you can get others on board with the shot I'm down. Otherwise, I'm happier doing a double tonight.
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I hope you have one coming for Devotary too, considering that they are also a Grey and should be under just as much suspicion. The very fact that you're tunneling me so hard and refusing to look at anyone else makes me more and more suspicious. The more I read it, the more it feels like you just want there to be an Elim in the Greys, rather than having any reason to believe that there is one. While I'm here, Devotary to prevent a tie. I'll keep a close eye on things and tamper wherever I need to. I really really hate this, but we 100% don't need to lose four people and I'm willing to drop tonight as well if it gives the rest of town some peace of mind. When we both flip town, y'all should really be taking a long, hard look at Dice and Archer. (For those of you who are uncomfortable with a tie here, I'd like to remind you that even if we both are Village, as I am confident we are, that takes you from 10/2 to 7/2 to 5/2 to 3/2 if there's another misshrek cycle 5 and cycle 6; as opposed to going from 10/2 to 8/2 to 6/2 to 4/2. You're at exlo either way in the same number of turns, but you enter with a great deal more information in the former situation because the pool is smaller. That's part of makes me ok with dying here; I know that even when my suspicions are proven correct I'm shifting Town back to odds with my death which gives Town an edge going in.)
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Oh yes, yeah I guess that's fine. I prefer to keep these things strictly impersonal but do what you gotta.
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Oh guys On one hand, Devotary doesn't vote Matrim because he's an elim, doesn't vote me because he thinks I'm town, then shades me hard by saying "Here's why one of the Greys could be scum" and then voting a different warder to tie it at three votes again, which screams to me as being aggressive posturing; On the other, they have the wrong number on the Elims, which I'm pretty sure is a townslip, but could also be Schum trying to build cred? I really don't know what to do. I really don't. Someone help
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I'm not sure what I was at when I said that -- I've been kind of focused on a paper all night, and not really paying attention. Connie's not ideal, but after the whole Dannex and the WGG thing their posting has felt unhelpful and lackluster to me, which doesn't make me feel great. Also their posting is reminding me a lot of Lotus' posting, which really really bothers me. Still, that may just be an activity thing, and I'm reading into it too much So I rescind my statement, I'd be happiest shreking in Burnt, Dice, Archer, and Connie, in that order. I'd do a Dannex lynch if you all absolutely made me. I really don't support a Devo-Only lynch, so if y'all take out Devo you'd better take me with you, so if my theory is correct and we are both Village you don't all waste another day jumping down my throat and just hand the game to the Elims.
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Breaker doesn't know me from playing Mafia offsite, unfortunately, so it's not a very helpful question -- unless you just mean personality, but I don't know how that factors in? So maybe it's helpful, and I don't realize it? Heck if I know. And I'm not going to WIFOM ya, so :/ Making a note of this for later, since I'm explicitly not in this post. I'm confident you're town, Dannex, but I can't just not pretend that you could have nice, deep, warm pockets. I don't have time to dive tonight but I can try tomorrow between bekfast and classes.
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At this point, I've got the feeling it's best for me to not engage Dice; he's either really deluded town or a blatant Elim, and I feel like that will be obvious at some point. @Illwei, @Dannex, what's our actual plan? I trust you two the most out of pretty much everyone here, and we need to have something set in stone here. Actions, directions, you name it. I haven't heard anything about sweeping Devo and I with one town kill, so I guess that's off the table (which is fair, it's a bold play. Still, if nothing else happens, I'd like to pursue that path.) I'm not a fan of Dannex being the lynch here (as I will say multiple times) but at this point their PR has pretty much outlived itself; We know all the roles at the table and who has them. I'd like to leave them alive though, since they are lock-town -- it forces the Elims to waste perfectly good kill, and may be more beneficial to us than they would like... Barring taking out Devo and I today, I'd like to Shrek in Burnt, Conden, Archer; I don't feel we know enough about Orlock to justify hitting them, and despite Gears and Dice tinfoiling really hard, I don't think there's solid evidence against either of them to warrant one of them (especially since at least Dice, maybe Gears still have their defense last I checked). If y'all will really make me do Dannex, I will, but I really think that the longer we can keep Dannex alive the more useful he is to us, as even having one confirmed and alive Town is a great benefit. I will point out that Burnt's choice in a search last eve is questionable. We already knew that Dannex had searched me, I don't know why she felt the need to do it again, but maybe that's just Burnt? I dunno.
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To be fair, I’m starting to feel that way too. If I were Elim, and I saw the town!Brown get outed day 1, I’d do everything in my power to make sure they went down via the Shrek C1 and C2. Brown is one of the most powerful roles in the game; this is non-negotiable. If you really, truly believe that I am Elim, than you also have to believe the player you have been defending all game is also an Elim. And if you really don’t trust the Grey, you should be hitting at them both and clearing them from the table.
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And leave a Brown PR alive? My friend, you're edging into very tinfoily territory. They've had multiple opportunities to tie a vote and take down a town powerhouse with minimal losses, they should be taking them if they're not I'm honestly appalled.
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No no, I still think that Dannex is almost 100% town here. There's nothing to suggest otherwise. I'm just trying to think why the Elims would just leave a PR like that alive. I think Burnt is ok (sorry Burnt <3); it tells us at least something -- if we know where Burnt sits, we know where to go next. P-Edit: Hold up, @Archer you might want to check the thread. Unless you're telling me you think Dannex is also an Elim, we've locked both the Greys as Town with voting and role mechainics.
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Yeah, I think so. Also there has to be a reason that Dannex isn't dead yet. You don't just let a power role sit around like that. It's not particularly great, but it's strong as far as this game goes. Edit: Speaking of, here's what we know (working on the assumption that Dannex is Town): Dice: Warder, ??? Gears: Warder, ??? Breaker: Blue Town, W/Gears Archer: Red W/Dice Order: Warder, ??? James: Grey Town, W/Order Burnt: Brown (Disabled) ??? Illwei: White Town (I think) W/Conden Dannex: Brown Town Devo: Grey Town Conden: Warder Town Orlock: Blue (I think) ??? --- Liranil: Green Town Shard: Yellow Town Ashbringer: Blue Town Striker: White Elim Quinn: Red Elim Lotus: Warder Elim ???: Warder Elim ???: ??? Elim Books: Red Town Edit Edit: it just occurred to me that I'm assuming Illwei is town. Either that's right, or you've got really deep pockets. I don't think it's too far to assume though that there was one White Elim and one White Town.
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But the only way Quinn would assume the Greys would save you again is if they knew that both Greys were village. That means, again, that there can be no Grey Elims if you are town.
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@Illwei Tell me what you think of this.
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So you're arguing that if Quinn and Dannex were Elims together, then Quinn votes Dannex, then the elim!Grey saves Quinn (Black/Red) instead of Dannex (Black/Brown)? That doesn't make sense -- you're trading a weaker power role for a stronger one, with no benefit. In fact, it only makes sense in one situation: the situation you just described. It only works if you (Gears) know for certain that Dannex is Town. That's not super clear, so let me explain. Situation 1(Gear's Hypothesized Universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Elim Quinn Votes Dannex Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon Quinn lives, Dannex Dies, Quinn survives. Situation 2 (Parallel universe): Quinn!Elim + Dannex!Town Quinn Votes Dannex Grey Tampers Quinn's Wagon Dannex Dies, Quinn confirms as Elim. Quinn gets 1 day. Situation 3(Our world): Quin!Elim + Dannex!??? Quinn does not vote Dannex Grey Tampers Dannex's Wagon Quinn Dies Those are the three universes that we have to work with. In Universe 1, the weaker role lives. In universe 2, Quinn wastes a kill and gets Dannex gone. In universe 3, where we are, we have what happened -- Quinn doesn't try and vote Dannex, and dies to protect(?) Dannex Except if the Elims had a Grey, they would have used it at that point to tie up the running and bring down Dannex, despite losing Quinn. My point is, the angle you are arguing at, that Quinn votes Dannex to save herself, only works if you, Gears, are arguing with the knowledge that Dannex is Town and not an Elim.
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The Liranil vote I'm not going to try to disagree looks weird -- but no weirder than my whole deal with Striker without context It's could be odd that Dannex didn't vote Quinn -- except if what you say is true about relying on Grey, he was probably relying on Devo or I to protect him, as we have been doing so he didn't need to self-pres. Also, Dannex missed rollover, just like I did. You're Elim-Reading for something that's completely NAI. The assumption of 1 Grey elim by everyone is 1) setup-speculation and 2) consistent, even when unnecessary. This all, however, has brought up a great point that I didn't even realize, which is that in a world where Dannex is town, we can't have a Grey Elim. If Devo is really a grey, as I believe (and I will readily confirm that I did not act on the Quinn shrek) -- they would have tied it so that we at least lost Dannex alongside Quinn. Same for D1; with an outed Brown, if there really was a grey Elim, there was plenty of opportunity to tie up that vote and take Dannex down too. So if Dannex is really town like Dice and Illwei (and I) believe, there cannot be a Gray Elim, as they would have manipulated the votes to shoot him on a tie rather than letting their Elim buddy ddie without a fight. tl;dr If we believe 1 brown is Town and 1 is Elim, then our options are either (Dannex and James/Devo) or (Burnt, ???). Based on voting mechanics, those are the only two possibilities here.
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You know, I'm going to spin an old argument around for this. If you're so sure that Dannex is an Elim what evidence can you provide? No tinfoiling, I'd like some real solid evidence about the possibility of Elim!Dannex to discuss.
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Basically it comes down to voting mechanics Dannex was willing to tie with Striker during the D2 Shrek, who we know is Elim. If Dannex was really Elim, he would have done everything in his power to stop that from happening, since it would have put Elim down 2 going into Day 3 I'd forgotten about C3 -- my phone died and I was at church/lunch, so I didn't end up being around for turnover. I was planning to stop one of the Dannex votes again but :/ Why don't you tell me who you targeted first Edit: I have a proposal and a thought: Y'all are pretty sure that there is a Grey Elim between Devo and I, and that Burnt is Elim as well. So the optimal play is to just Shrek both Devo and I today with a tied vote, and then shoot Burnt tomorrow. You literally can't miss like that. Since I know that Devo is the Elim in this case, they will probably try and stop their own vote, so I'll target someone on my own wagon to ensure it stays tied up and we both go down. Sure, I die, but we get a suspected Elim in the same shot, and then you don't have to worry about Devo and/or I shenaniganing with the vote tomorrow..
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I actually also targeted Ash Cycle 2, but didn't see a need on cycles 3 and 4 because of how wide the wagon was. We target the same person, which is why it showed one stop that vote.
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That's interesting, since in your very first post you assumed there were four elims, and then never brought it up again.