James Brafin
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Everything posted by James Brafin
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Okay, so riddle me this: Why didn't they hit Devo last night, then try and get me shrekked?
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I agree. I said that I think the most likely team is Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder, based on what we know about the setup. You made the (not unreasonable, but I think/thought is not accurate) assumption that I meant that the last two, Warder and Red, were bound together. So you responded (italics/bold for extending the line of reasoning) "But that incriminates Matrim or Gears, since they are the ones bonded to Red Ajah." Except, only Matrim is bound to a Red. Gears is not, he is bound to a blue -- you, as far as you claimed. So that logic doesn't parse, why would assuming that the Red and Warder were bonded incriminate Gears? There's a few options here: You think that (I meant)/(it could be) red/blue. Okay, great, except that makes no sense. You're the only blue, and we've all town-read you for a while; why would you, or anyone else, suddenly think that it's blue? You think Gears could Elim with Archer, as they are a Warder. That's -- marginally better, but why would you suddenly flip on your Warder like that, when there are literally four Warders living? That, again makes no sense, especially since you've been town-reading them all game. Or, three (and what I think is most likely): You slipped. You momentarily forgot that you had claimed blue previously, and made an error just now in softing/outing Red, prolly from game exhaustion.
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Yea, that's reasonable. But why does the assumption that Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder and that they are bonded make Gears a suspect if you're blue then?
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None of this is unfair I don't think. But two warders also means it could be one of Order/Connie Why does it incriminate Gears? I thought you were blue. Edit: Oh, Breaker You wouldn't do this to me, would you, Breaker?
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This is dumb, since with Dannex's flip we Devo and I are confirmed town. My guess here is that Archer is pushing to shrek me, then turn on devo when I flip Vil. I'm not going to argue semantics about this; I was offline when the flip happened and couldn't get back in time, otherwise I would have done more. Again, you're using something completely NAI as a reason to justify me being Elim. Archer I realize that you don't think he's an Elim, Dice, but Archer has been weaving a fake narrative since day one, and not really contributing anything to the conversation. It screams bad play. Also, 1) Archer has been consistently wrong about setup speculation. There was only one yellow, both browns were Elim, ect. The fact that they are still basing all of their reasoning on setup speculation after it has been revealed to them that their assumptions about the game's setup are completely wrong is absurd. That's willfully ignoring what has been going on in the game. And 2) This is a complete 180 from the last cycle; nowhere at all was I on Archer's read list, and they were confident to an extreme that Devo was likely Elim, citing several examples on how it could be Dice/Devo or Orlock/Devo. It's a complete and total shift in reasoning that Archer has no grounds for whatsoever. A third and final note: At this point, knowing that both Grey are town, why didn't the Elims take one out last night? With us alive it becomes much, much harder to push lynches and extends exlo for at least a cycle. A town player shouldn't be advocating for the removal of both Greys in a single swoop. However, if they're hoping to push for a misshrek based on bad setup spec, that makes a ton of sense. It's pretty much exactly what Archer did with Burnt and Dannex too, and I can see trying it again as being a really smart move. But I'm not going to fall for that twice, no sir, and I won't let anyone else either. Edit: What about Red/Red/White/Warder/Warder? That makes sense to me, some weaker but valuable PRs for Elims, while also giving them some extra lives and off-switches for town PRs. I'd say Red/Grey/White/Warder/Warder, but we've mechanically cleared both the Greys, which Archer is conveniently forgetting, so...
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REEEE I agree we are better off doing a tie here. I’m a little shocked I’m not dead tbh. This does clear both Devo and me though, but beyond that... I need to go think. I don’t know what to do. Be back after class.
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Don't do anything. Just sit tight. Also: Striker, Lotus, and Quinn have all been heading those wagons as well. It wasn't just Matrim and I. I don't know it means anything at all, but it is super super weird.
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I wouldn't put it past her. Thank you for standing by and letting us double. Hopefully it saves us a great deal in the future.
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I swear to all frick, if Devo comes and screws this up I'm going to scream. It has occurred to me that the Elim have led every counterwagon to protect Dannex so far. I really don't know what to make of that. Not that it matters, but it is a thought.
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How long until rollover? A half hour? An hour and a half?
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On a wholy unrelated note, I was up until 2 last night waiting for Burnt to come online and banter with me for a while. Then I remembered I helped shrek her. ;o;
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I don't buy a WGG, honestly, which is why I've finally settled on Connie being town. I debated it for a while, bit it seems like a pretty big stretch. I'd be happier with an Order/Dannex hit today. Also, if Devo does anything other than tamper Order, it's pretty much confirmed that they are the Elim. Doing it doesn't clear them, of course, but saving Dannex again would all but condemn them.
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Order Devotary, I'm going to need your cooperation here. We need these two tied. I agree that Dannex seems most reasonable, but in the off chance my Warder is Elim, we need them in a place where we can shrek them net cycle. Let the two of them tie; in fact, if you can move a vote to Order if we don't get another by rollover that would be great. But they must tie, no questions.
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@TJ Shade, can I get a VC?
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So here's what I propose then: We're at 8/2, worst case scenario; more likely, I think we're at 9/1. That's not terrible. Let's choose two people to remove tonight; one of them can be Order, the other should be someone we can hit tonight for sure, to confirm someone else Breaker watches a target, someone we think might be the next Elim. Elim can't just not kill tonight, especially assuming 9/1, and will likely go after talky PRs again; that would be me, Dice, and Gears at this point. We'll leave a little WIFOM in the mix to keep the Elim guessing, which should make our job a bit easier. Worst case scenario, we go into 6/2, which is a pretty decent place to be in I think; at this point we have four town that is all but confirmed, which is going to make it nearly impossible for Elim to hide. The problem is sighs Dannex and Devo. To be clear, when I say "four town" above, I think Gears and Breaker are pretty much confirmed at this point; their behavior screams town, and Gears is tunneling far too hard for me to believe that he's Elim. But Dannex and Devo are the wildcards here, and could swing either way; sure they could be town, but they could also be the Elimteam, and that stresses me out. I'm pretty sure Orlock is Blue rather than White or Yellow, so Orlock may be able to observe another person -- again, that's not confirmed though. It's not a great plan, but it's not leaving us in the dark. Any suggestions on who the other shot might be?
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Oh, so you think it could be four-person then. Interesting. The problem is if we are wrong here, we don't have time to fix it. We need confirmation on who the Elim is. Gears, you got a protect left?
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But that asks me to believe that the elims are almost certainly all warders at this point, and I just don't buy it. It just doesn't make any sense! @Orlok Tsubodai, buddy, please tell me you've got some analysis done. I can't do this.
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WHAT ARE YOU DOING
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This just in: Breaker is some kind of land vehicle. More at 11.
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I think Dannex just has had a lot of us really pocketed this game. Between Illwei hardtowning them and Dice town tunneling, there hasn't been a lot of reason to suspect Dannex of anything. I guess that should have been our biggest warning bell, is that I don't think Dannex has had to defend or justify themselves much this game mostly because the rest of Town has been doing it for him. Your criticisms of Dannex are valid, and I think if we could get a whole wagon on him I'd be more interested in that shrek than Devo. I just don't think that's going to happen.
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This was... Surprisingly well-thought out, tbh. I don't think this comes from Elims, tbh. I'll agree to an uneasy truce for now. Devo seems fine to me, though Gears is going to be hard to hit with two lives. If Devo flips Elim though, I'm going to go after Dannex so hard. Not even joking. Like a truck.
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Ah yes. Very convincing. A theory you've been pushing all game, based on setup spec, is now invalid. I had a hunch this might happen, but I figured I'd wait until I saw it for myself; Dice is deflecting, just like Devo is. Team is Dice and Devo, pretty sure. For those who have been wondering, elim!brown is an idea that's been pushed by Dice, Dannex, and Illwei since the start of this. My guess is here that Dice shoots Illwei to get control of town, then pushes a lynch on Gears that goes against everything he's been saying all game, to pull off the win.
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Well, that. That’s a great reason to hit Devo, since we’ve all but mechanically confirmed that it’s Dannex and a Grey, and now they’re trying to blame shift. Edit: yes, what Gears said.
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SHOOT RATS FRICK Okay, that sucks. I guess Dannex and Devo and I are on the chopping block. I will lay down my argument for why you should shrek Devo and not me in three hours time, after work.
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Making note of this. This feels like a bad attempt at a bus/save my own rear.