Quintessential

VC: Tani (2): Archer, Illwei Archer (4): Matrim, Tani, Pizza, Jondesu Matrim (1): Bridge Jondesu (1): Quinn Bridge (1): Gears Other things... So, Archer told you that Mat vil-read me for suspecting Liranil? Okay, I have no idea what this means because I never did suspect Liranil. Archer village-read me because I pointed out that there was no opposition to the TUO train, and therefore TUO was probably village. Or at least that's what he told me. I cleared myself and Mat (and you) if Archer is elim because all three of us PM'd him. In retrospect, I'm realizing that if Archer's elim it probably does mean that at least one elim PM'd another elim, given how much he's emphasizing that that shouldn't be the case, but at the time my thinking was that each elim would PM a different villager. I cleared Bridge for reasons that have nothing to do with Archer: Bridge didn't PM anyone (that we know of). Nobody has contradicted that claim yet, and at the time he made it, the only two people who were dead were TUO and Liranil (whom he wouldn't have PM'd anyway because it was obvious they were going to die). I don't think it makes sense for an elim to have chosen not to PM anyone, or at least not unless the team is really fond of IKYKs, so I'm not so worried about Bridge being elim for the moment. That's all. *rubs eyes* sorry @Archer I don't think I have time to read your ISOs right now... I have a bunch of other stuff to write and we've only got 40 minutes left in the cycle. I promise I'll go back and read them later, but in the meantime I'd appreciate it if you'd summarize the main points/most important things you found. Okayyyy so, let's do this. People who have at various points seemed to want Archer dead: Matrim Tani Bridge Gears Pizza Jondesu People who have kind of not wanted Archer dead Myself (I like having people to PM) Illwei Archer (duh) People who haven't been on to express their opinions on Archer: Xino Uhhh so yeah. I suppose there you have it. If Archer's elim, your most likely teams following that are Archer/Illwei/Xino, and for those of you who don't know I'm village, Archer/Illwei/Quinn and Archer/Xino/Quinn. If Archer's really elim, that makes things pretty simple, doesn't it? Hmmmm @xinoehp512 please vote. Pretty please. I wanna have a cycle where everyone votes I don't care who you vote for--vote for me if you want! But the more solid opinions everyone expresses, the more information we have going forward. Oh, yeah, and Matrim (Jondesu). Purely because I found your reaction to my Jondesu vote... rather odd. You and I were discussing the possible options other than Tani and Archer. You weren't sure where to go once I'd pointed out the flaws in the cases for both of them, and you asked me--in an indirect manner--who it could be, if not Tani or Archer. I suggested Jondesu as a starting point. There was some stuff against them, they'd done basically nothing village-indicative, and if we voted them we might have been able to get more information on them, either based on how they responded or how other people responded. Interestingly enough, Mat decided that instead of joining me, he would revert to the theoretical in which Bridge is elim (saying it only really made sense if Archer is too), and ignoring Jondesu except to say that they don't make sense on this hypothetical team. Even though the sentence before, he'd admitted there was no evidence for said hypothetical team. So, now I'm voting him! Mat, what do you have to say for yourself? New VC: Tani (2): Archer, Illwei Archer (4): Matrim, Tani, Pizza, Jondesu Matrim (2): Bridge, Quinn Bridge (1): Gears

@Gears @Matrim's Dice I don't think we should try to intentionally tie it. To do so when there otherwise wouldn't be a tie would be to coerce people into voting for an option that they otherwise might not have chosen. If one of you has the opportunity to tie it, then go for it (it won't actually effect when parity is reached; the beauty of having an odd number of elims), but don't try to convince the rest of us to do the same.

He jumped at me for it, while totally ignoring that Archer had done the same. I linked to the post where Archer suggested it originally, but Jondesu appears not to have seen that yet, or if they have, they haven't acknowledged it. Tani (2): Archer, Illwei Archer (2): Matrim, Tani Matrim (1): Bridge Jondesu (1): Quinn

Why not?

Yeah that's what I'm trying to figure out. Vote analysis is essentially useless right now because there haven't been any sudden last-minute switches, near ties, or situations where anything is really AI. Besides which, in both C1 and C2 only just over half of living players voted. So by looking at votes I'd be missing a lot. PMs could be useful if we know who everyone had PM'd, but some people have refused to say, and there's also the possibility that the elims have decided to play suboptimally in order to throw us off. I'm mostly considering that possibility for the case where Archer actually is elim, because he's been heavily emphasizing PMs as a way of solving. My best guess is Jondesu at this point. Their post this cycle felt really off to me, and I'd been giving them the benefit of the doubt because I figured maybe they just hadn't been reading carefully? but I'm running out of ideas so I'm voting them for now. I know, I know, that was my point lol I'm saying I think it's unlikely you're elim. I worked out the casework in wayyyy more detail at one point; the only plausible way I can think of for you to be elim is if you PM'd Archer, and when he told you that he PM'd you, you decided to play it off like you hadn't PM'd anyone in order to gain village credit. And that doesn't seem all that likely either.

So I have no idea what to do here. I'm reading Tani village, and Archer's attacks on her are pretty sus, but on the other hand they're so sus that I have a hard time imagining e!Archer using them. Like, the thing about being elim is that if you're gonna hard-tunnel on someone, you usually choose someone who was already under suspicion (which Tani really wasn't) and who has said or done stuff that's actually sus (which Tani hasn't), or at least someone around whom the circumstances are suspicious. That way, your efforts probably pay off and you still have plausible deniability when your target flips vil because there was something specific and concrete there that you can say made you suspicious of them. Like, in QF50 I chose to focus my e!tunneling efforts on Dannex, who kept surviving exes because countertrains appeared last-minute and who had a scanning role that the village thought the elims would have (we didn't). He'd also tried to get vanillas (if there were any--there weren't) to claim, and once he was saved by vote-manip, which the village also thought the elims had (we didn't). It would have been nonsensical, on the other hand, for me to try to attack Mat or Illwei in that game simply because they hadn't been killed yet. So basically, the fact that Archer is attacking Tani specifically, instead of, say, Mat (Mat's who I would pick to tunnel on if I were elim and felt like doing that), seems more to me like villager-with-gut-read than elim-trying-to-get-villager-exed. Of course, now there's this sudden idea of switching onto Bridge... Mat please keep in mind that e!Bridge only makes sense if A. the elims are deliberately playing suboptimally with their PMs or B. Bridge is lying about having not PM'd anyone (which is... ah, a risky thing for an elim to do, since it's like the only mechanic we have to work off of and it's getting a ton of attention).

Archer has 3 votes (Mat, Tani, and Bridge) and Tani has two (you and Archer). So he's in the lead by 1. I wouldn't call that lack of opposition, though.

So I went back and did post counts for C1 and C2... and it turns out I was sort of right and sort of wrong. See for yourself. C1: C2:

@Archer @Illwei You guys seem to be missing something pretty important here : P Dannex was an active, village-read player, and he was killed. When he died, he only had three fewer posts than Tani did at the time, and they'd contained more substance, so in this case I'd put him slightly above her in terms of activity. The most active players this game have been, up to this point: myself, Mat, Archer, and Dannex, with Tani slightly behind. Illwei has been busy and she doesn't even make the list here, so Archer idk why you're still acting like she does.

They have a little bit, see here. But it sounds like they're not as experienced as you were when you joined.

Okay @Archer couple of things: Illwei's thing about having PMd Liranil was a joke. She said it in response to you (and you already knew she hadn't PMd Liranil), and she didn't actually say it, she just "raised her hand". Joke. Not serious. Therefore not AI. Illwei makes jokes like that all the time as both alignments. You're saying you think one of the elims is super active. Which is. Exactly what I did in LG75. For the exact same reason that you're doing it here. And it turned out to be wrong. The NKs don't necessarily mean (in my opinion) that one of the elims is super active. All they mean is that one of the elims knows what they're doing. Tani has never played a real elim game before (MR49 doesn't count) so she wouldn't know what she's doing. Ergo, she actually doesn't make sense for these kills. Especially since new elims (speaking from personal experience) tend to target high-profile, active villagers who are trusted and seem like threats to the elim team. So basically, you, me, and Mat. I'm pretty sure one of us would be dead by now if Tani were elim : P You're narrowing your focus, ignoring things that could actually be considered suspicious, like Gears info-killing after saying he didn't want to do that again in a previous game, or Xino voting Mat on tinfoil. You don't have any real reason to suspect Tani. If you could point to any one thing she's done that's actually elimmy, then you might have ground to stand on. But since you haven't done that already I'm assuming you don't have anything to point to. Basically, maybe reevaluate. If Tani's elim, you can always come back to her later when there's more evidence against her. In the meantime, there are at least two other elims out there (probably three) whose names aren't "Tani", and you'd be doing the village at least as much good looking for them as tunneling on her when you don't have enough to convince the rest of us to vote her off.

*rubs eyes* how many times do I have to explain this. I've already said all of this more than once, but: First of all, the elims may know already. Like. If you PM'd an elim. Or if you PM'd someone who has a PM with an elim and who trusted that elim enough to tell them. Second of all, give me one concrete example of a situation in which the knowledge that you have a PM with a specific person gives the elims a significant advantage, or any advantage. And third of all, the knowledge of whom you have a PM with narrows the pool of potential elim teams, and helps us to solidify relationships between people who have otherwise been silent enough that we have no idea what to think of them. In other words, knowing whom you PM'd could help us find elims. Also if you're going to vote for someone on the basis that they wanted everyone to claim who they PM'd, it should be Archer, not me. He was the first one to suggest it (see the bolded part of this post)

TUO (4): Illwei, Bridge, Archer, Liranil Matrim (1): Quinn Bridge (1): Kings Liranil (1): Matrim Plus TUO voted someone but... I forgot to write down who. Other than that it's accurate : P

In my PM with Archer, he ran that same post by me, told me he'd PM'd Bridge, said he was going to message Bridge with important info in case he died (Bridge specifically because Bridge is in a timezone where they wouldn't be on for rollover)... that was basically all that was important. There was also me forgetting I hadn't told him I had a PM with Tani, and referencing it casually, and he was like "oh good to know" xD but I doubt that matters. He didn't ask me to switch off Kings or anything.

Did Dannex say whether anyone else created PMs with him? And yeah, I think you might be right about the kills. It's like... they're not the kills I would have chosen. Either of them. Which... probably means I'm looking at everything totally wrong : P Okay, this makes sense assuming that Archer is village. Which tbh I kind of have been up until now. But... like Mat said, the kills feel wrong, which makes me think I'm missing something. So... for the sake of argument, here's what it means if Archer is elim: Myself, Illwei, Mat, and Bridge are more or less cleared. There are almost certainly only three elims, so it wouldn't make sense for them to waste PMs by PMing each other. That means two elims in the group of Gears, Jondesu, Xino, Pizza (leaving out Archer 'cause the assumption is that he's elim, and Tani because he seems serious enough in trying to get her exed). We don't know who any of those people PMd. Now, that's not to say that that is the reality. If Archer is village then he's right and we have a much larger pool we have to sort through : P I just wanted to put this out there so that his take isn't the only one available to reference off of. Hmmm @Illwei and Matrim, how have your PM conversations with Archer gone, roughly? In general, though, here's a list of who's PM'd whom that I know of so far: Matrim PM'd Archer; Matrim/Archer probably not e/e Quinn PM'd Archer; Quinn/Archer probably not e/e (I mean, I know we're not but I'll include it for common reference : P) Tani PM'd Quinn; Tani/Quinn probably not e/e Archer PM'd Bridge; Archer/Bridge probably not e/e Illwei PM'd Archer; Illwei/Archer probably not e/e I still don't know who Gears, Jondesu, Xino, and Pizza PM'd, so if any of you feel like sharing... that could be useful. Edit: @Matrim's Dice pretty sure Illwei's thing was just a joke lol

The actual VC matches the stated VC exactly. Why did they kill Dannex? He was like... actually under some suspicion, I thought? Or, well, he was under suspicion if Kings was elim. Which Kings wasn't, and the elims knew that. Okay, nevermind I guess that makes sense.

Alright, so less than an hour until rollover, and our current VC is: Matrim (2): Illwei, Xino Kings (4): Quinn, Matrim, Bridge, Gears Tani (1): Archer 7/12 is technically better than 7/14 (edit: oh wait that's right TUO voted too so 8/14) I guess, but there are still five players who haven't voted yet, @Kings_way, @Jondesu, @Dannex, @Tani, and @PizzaPower55. So uh... please vote if you're on : P or at least say something about your suspicions. Votes placed so far along with their stated reasoning (all votes placed so far have remained where they were placed, so I won't bother with bolding): Illwei votes Matrim: no reasoning stated. Quinn votes Kings: for having voted Bridge last cycle. Matrim votes Kings: same reason as Quinn basically. Archer votes Tani: because it concerns him that he doesn't have a village read on her yet. Bridge votes Kings: same reason as Quinn and Matrim. Gears votes Kings: to get info on Matrim and Dannex. Xino votes Matrim: tinfoil about e!Mat voting his NK. Ah okay that's what I thought, since you said you thought Mat was vil, but I was confused by the phrasing

:/// wait are you saying he's acting like in a game where he was elim, or acting like in a game where he was village? *confusion*

Ooo you like tinfoil too? Here's some: you're elim and you're trying to start a countertrain to your teammate, e!Kings! no I don't actually seriously believe this but it's a possibility amirite?

Ohhhh okay okay yeah this is a good point. It reminds me of what Araris and Maill (both elims) did to my analysis in LG74--rather than trying to refute my points, they attacked how I had phrased those points and the methods by which I'd reached them. Dannex is doing something similar here. I could see v!Dannex being concerned that he'd get voted off if Kings is really elim, and being annoyed that he's being tied to someone he really has no link to... but I could also see e!Dannex knowing that Kings will flip elim, and worrying what will happen to him if Kings does. (more confbias, yayyyy) It is an odd response, though, since we get info on people based on what other people do all the time, so I may... back off on my village read a bit : P

Confbias is when you do analysis or interact with someone already expecting (consciously or unconsciously) to come to a certain conclusion. So like, last game I had a gut elim read on Striker for a while and so I kind of accidentally saw everything Striker did as elimmy up until right before he died. That's confbias.

Idk, it wasn't obvious to me... but that does make sense. Could also say Kings/you/Archer, though, with the weird caveat that that would mean you're C2 bussing a teammate, which... well, would be weird xD And this is why I say it'd be confbiasy of me to assume that Mat's last-minute switch means he's elim. You could easily argue that he was a villager who realized there was no opposition to the main train (as there likely would have been if an elim had been in danger) and switched to the person he was voting before. You could also argue that he was an elim who, knowing that TUO was going to die even if he moved his vote and knowing that moving his vote to Liranil (the NK) would give him vil cred, decided to go for it. But again, confbias : P And no, I don't know of any way to find out when the NK was decided I'm assuming it was chosen fairly early, though, since there's usually not much that happens during C1 that would effect the elims' choice of kill, so why bother waiting? then again in QF50 I'm pretty sure my team basically randomly picked Connie as the kill about a half hour before C1 rollover so who knows.

Ohhhh is it bad that I only just figured out that e!Kings would mean one of [Mat, Dannex] is sus because Mat/Dannex/Bridge were the three that Kings named, and they voted for Bridge? I just thought of that myself and then was like "wait that sounds familiar..." xD Anyway, to clarify, e!Kings would likely have named a teammate in that list of people they were planning to vote, as a means of distancing from that person. It could actually be Bridge, since there was no way Bridge was going to get voted off and it would have been safe to vote them, but we have other reasons to think Bridge is village. So yeah, probably Mat or Dannex. Edit: If Kings is elim. If Kings is village then it doesn't mean anything : P Edit: oh, yeah, and @Bridge-Four that makes sense; some of the gut/odd phrasing stuff that you pointed out had occurred to me too, though for the moment I'm not super concerned about it. If Kings flips elim I'll look more closely at Mat, though it seems rather an odd choice for Mat to willingly bus a teammate C2... hmmm yeah idk about that.

Wait why Kings/Archer/Dannex? I've been reading Archer and Dannex village so I suppose I haven't paid as much attention to anything that might link them as I normally would. Yes, I agree with this. If Bridge were elim then the team would have had them create a PM with someone. Assuming Bridge isn't lying about not having done so, my conclusion is that they're village. To the rest, that makes sense, thanks for the explanation. I'm keeping my vote on Kings at least until they respond, and possibly afterwards too depending on how they respond. They chose to vote the one person they'd named who had literally 0 chance of being exed that cycle, and it wasn't like it was making a statement of "I really do think this person is sus, even if I know they're not gonna get exed" because Kings never said why they thought Bridge was sus, or why they thought Bridge was more sus than the other two. So yeah, I'm perfectly happy exeing Kings right now unless they have a really solid explanation for that vote : P Ah, that reminds me! @Bridge-Four would you mind explaining why you're most sus of Mat and Kings? It's fine if Kings is just "what Quinn and Mat said" but I'm curious about why you might vote for Mat.

Did you create the PM or did he?