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Quintessential

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  1. Quintessential
    What I meant is, if I tried to argue that Mat was probably elim because of it, it would have been confbias. Why? Again, why? To both of those things. I didn't find your last post overly suspicious, so I'm curious why you thought people would. Especially since no one actually said they did : P Well, first of all, they probably have a fair amount of that info anyway. Currently they have created 3 of the PMs in this game (of which there are a max of 12 rn, and possibly fewer). Beyond that, they can ask who their PM partners created PMs with, they can see anyone who created a PM with them, and they can ask if anyone else created a PM with their PM partner. So, chances are the elims, since they're collaborating, already know a fair amount about the distribution of PMs. Beyond that, it's not like the elims can actually do much with that info. So they know me and Archer have a PM--so what? If they kill one of us solely for that, it means they're ignoring other, more important reasons to kill other people (which is a suboptimal strategy for them and therefore good for the village), and if they kill one of us for that and something else, then they likely woulda done it anyway because of the something else. Apart from that, there's not much harm that their knowing about PMs can do. Current stated VC: Matrim (1): Illwei Kings (2): Quinn, Matrim Tani (1): Archer
  2. Quintessential
    I don't know how much we can get out of the votes on TUO at this point... I could conf-bias any of them being elim, but I could also easily see any of them being village (given when and how they were placed), so I doubt my confbiasing is actually gonna help any. I'm not sure what to think of Mat's late switch. I've vil gut-switched before, so I understand that, and it wouldn't really make sense for e!Mat to switch to voting someone that the team was probably planning to NK at that point anyway (I'm assuming they decided before the end of the cycle : P). Then again, maybe it would? Because e!Mat could switch from the main exe target (who was about to flip village) to someone who he knew would be NKd (switching close enough to the end of the cycle and with little enough reasoning that it was unlikely a train would build up on her) to gain vil credit? Okay yeah no this is also just confbias. I could see it either way, especially since he didn't switch until after I pointed out no one was trying to save TUO--making it unlikely it was some plan to gain vil-credit, maybe? Aghhh idk. 10:30pm!me shouldn't be trying to do serious analysis In case it helps anyone, here is (once again) a complete list of all votes placed last cycle, along with the reasoning for them: Also the (stated) VC is currently Matrim (1): Illwei Doing great there guys : P Actually, here's a thing I can do: process of elimination! kind of. I don't know what to think about Mat but for the moment I'm leaning village on him tbh. Thinking otherwise feels IKYK-y and that's... never very helpful. Tani I read village for reasons I've stated previously; same with Dannex. Archer I'm now reading village for reasons that could currently be classified as PM reasons ig (I made my PM with him) but will soon be public thread knowledge (he ran a planned post by me to see what I thought; it read village to me. hence my read on him). So that leaves Gears, Jondesu, Illwei, Books, Bridge, Kings, and Pizza. Of those, Bridge is new and Jondesu is returning, so since they haven't given me any reasons to actively suspect them, I'm going to leave them be for the moment. My attacking Illwei is literal torture and turns into a thunderdome without fail, so I'm not gonna do that without good reason either. Pizza is relatively new and iirc didn't really know what they were doing last game either (not that I blame them; that game was even weirder than this one xD) so I don't think their lack of contribution is AI... Kings. There was something about Kings. Why the heck did Kings vote Bridge? @Kings_way why'd you vote Bridge? The reason stated for the [Bridge, Dannex, Mat] vote pool was "95% gut" iirc. What was the other 5%? Were there any specific posts that gut came from? Okay sorry this is tired!me's attempt at contribution I'll come back tomorrow morning and fix all the grammar/spelling mistakes that have inevitably found themselves into this post and then reevaluate everything I said and probably regret most of it but oh well. Not quite what Tani said, actually : P A bus, or "bussing", is when an elim votes another elim in order to look less suspicious themself. Or, sometimes, when the elim team intentionally votes off one of their own (usually because that person was under a ton of suspicion anyway)
  3. Quintessential
    Right, I have the second time because he announced it in-thread. I was asking about the first time : P
  4. Quintessential
    Okay cool thx
  5. Quintessential
    Oh, hey, @Matrim's Dice can you look back and see when roughly you voted for Liranil originally? Day + time of day? Just so I can put it in chronological order with the other votes. I'm a perfectionist
  6. Quintessential
    Hey hey hey why does everyone always have to bring up that game? AG7 was a far better example of lack of distancing smh
  7. Quintessential
    ...ah, fair enough. Only, why "plus Archer" though?
  8. Quintessential
    I suspect that larger group wouldn't work either : P I'm village, the person Matrim was sus of was NKd, and Tani feels like Tani (plus she pointed out that random IKYK that nobody else was about to think of and that, in the open, is actual pretty harmful to the elims since it forces them to be careful about who they choose to PM and who they NK, to avoid giving themselves away that way.)
  9. Quintessential
    Because she said- okay, sorry, lemme rephrase: Illwei's streak is probably broken, because everyone she said she voted was village. Happy now?
  10. Quintessential
    yeah I thought of that too actually Sidenote: Illwei's streak is broken : P she only voted villagers last cycle.
  11. Quintessential
    The stated VC was: TUO (4): Illwei, Bridge, Archer, Liranil Matrim (1 {2}): Quinn, {Kings} Bridge ({1}): {Kings} Dannex ({1}): {Kings} Liranil (1): Matrim The actual VC was: The Unknown Order (4): Liranil, Archer, Illwei, Bridge-Four Liranil (1): Matrim's Dice Matrim's Dice (1): Quintessential Dannex (1): The Unknown Order Bridge-Four (1): Kings_Way That is to say, the only person who voted without saying they were voting was TUO, who is, obviously, dead.
  12. Quintessential
    : P that's not sus on you, Mat. You just aren't new, returning, inactive, a village read for me, or one of Illwei/Archer/Gears (none of whom I consider myself capable of reading early on). In fact, you're the only person who falls into none of those categories. I'd feel bad voting someone who's new or returning, or who's said they'll be inactive due to irl stuff. It doesn't make sense to vote my village reads or people who haven't said anything at all. And I don't trust my reads on Illwei/Archer/Gears, the latter two of which I'd lean village on anyway if forced to give a concrete read. Voting Illwei would not be a good idea, as we've seen from the past four or five games. So that leaves you
  13. Quintessential
    Current VC: TUO (5): Illwei, Bridge, Archer, Matrim, Liranil Matrim (1 {2}): Quinn, {Kings} Bridge ({1}): {Kings} Dannex ({1}): {Kings} Here's a list of every vote stated this cycle, in order, along with the reasoning for each. Bold = current votes. Quinn votes Liranil: poke vote. Mat votes Jondesu: poke vote. Dannex votes Archer: for suggesting we not bother organizing PMs. Dannex unvotes Archer: upon realizing Archer's post was pre-written. Illwei votes Quinn, unvotes Quinn, votes TUO: Quinn for early-village-reading Dannex, TUO for suggesting we organize PMs but saying they may not announce their votes. Bridge votes TUO: gut read. Quinn unvotes Liranil, votes Mat: because Mat is the only person in this game so far that I don't have an objection to voting, basically. Kings votes one of [Bridge, Dannex, Mat]: D1 gut reads. Archer votes TUO: Illwei voted them with reasoning (this in line with Archer's first post), also TUO's statements about how they intend to vote have been weird. Mat unvotes Jondesu, votes Liranil: this didn't actually happen here but this was when it was announced so I'm putting it here. No reasoning stated. Mat unvotes Liranil, votes TUO: TUO feels off this game, Mat concurs with Archer's analysis. Liranil votes TUO: security against a tie. Given the lack of (public) opposition to the TUO train, it seems unlikely to me that TUO is elim. But I don't see any better options (like, I am literally voting Mat because he's the only person I have no current personal objection to voting, so who am I to judge), and more than half the votes on the train had some kind of actual reason behind them, which is... pretty good for D1. So I guess I'm not unhappy with this outcome. Trying to start another train might end up with a tie, anyway. On the other hand, only half of us have stated we're voting. Which is... not great. Since we have less than 1.5 hours left in-cycle, and we need as much info as we can get going forward. The people who don't currently have stated votes are @Gears, @Gneorndin, @The Unknown Order, @Jondesu, @Dannex, @Flyingbooks, and @PizzaPower55. If any of you actually have voted, please say so, and if you haven't then please consider doing so : P I probably won't be on for the rest of the cycle 'cause I have a couple of chemistry labs to do. So don't expect me to be around to give any more VCs you're on your own!
  14. Quintessential
    Both to you specifically and to everyone: please announce votes that you put in your GM PM even if you don't think they're going to stick. First of all, if you forget/aren't on to change them, it'll draw suspicion onto you for having a vote you never said anything about in the final tally. And second of all, if you felt like voting someone in the first place it probably means something, and that gives us more info, especially later and in context. Context which we lack if you don't post when you make the decision, because we won't be able to figure out when exactly you voted, and that can be important. basically this game is a logistical nightmare for me xD
  15. Quintessential
    Mind putting your votes in bold and red in the future? Makes it easier for me everyone to keep track of them. Did you announce that in-thread? if you did I missed it : P the only person I have you down as having voted was Jondesu. As a general statement: Guyyyss this doesn't work if you don't say who you're voting for! The current VC that I have, knowing now that Mat's vote is on Liranil, is: TUO (3): Illwei, Bridge, Archer Matrim (1 {2}): Quinn, {Kings} Bridge ({1}): {Kings} Dannex ({1}): {Kings} Liranil (1): Matrim It looks like there's more votes than there are because Kings is listed on three people, having said they'd vote for one of those three. In reality, only myself, Bridge, Archer, Kings, Illwei, and Matrim have voted.
  16. Quintessential
    In QF51 C1, I was just trying to discuss rules and stuff with you and you interpreted it as me shading you--which it was never intended to be. Hence the disclaimer at the top of my post : P Will do lol (side-note: I wish there was some kind of @here function on the 17th Shard, like there is on Discord)
  17. Quintessential
    Okay, first of all, Illwei please don't freak out. I am responding to you and in some cases disagreeing with you but I don't have an elim read on you at all so just so we're clear, the purpose of this is not to attack you or shade you or anything like that. Okay? Right, moving on. The point of having top three suspicions is that it gives some kind of accountability but adds an element of uncertainty for the elims (and allows people to have some fun with the unique mechanic this game). After the fact, we'll be able to tell which of the three the player voted for by looking at the final VC, so it's only a temporary delay in information. I personally am not going to do it, but I don't think it's particularly harmful to leave the option open to other people who want to have fun with this (and I don't know if we can actually stop them anyway : P), so I'm not going to oppose the idea. I wrote out a whole response to this and then realized in your next post you say basically what I was going to xD PMs aren't really that important for the village because they'll do very little to help us solve the game. Mat responded to this exactly how I was going to I think that depends on what the point of PMs is in your opinion. The fact that everyone knows you have a PM with someone in particular doesn't change that it's a PM, and you can still do everything with it that you can with a PM that no one knows about. It's not like there are PM spies in this game ...right Ash? The only problem I can even think of is that it gives the elims a potential system of targeting people based on who they have PMs with. Which at first sounds bad, but like I said earlier PMs aren't actually going to be that useful in this game anyway, so A. idk why the elims would do that and B. if they did that it'd be good, because they'd be targeting people based on PM distribution and not based on what's actually happening in-game, which is a suboptimal strategy for them and therefore good for us. Because I immediately village-read him after his first post? in seriousness though, I have a hard time seeing e!Dannex immediately attacking Archer for his first post. Still village-reading Tani, TUO, and Dannex (fight me, Gears >>), it's too early to tell with Gears and Illwei (and if you forced me to give reads other than null on those two, it would be village for Gears and elim for Illwei... which is always what I give for those two at the start of every game basically : P), Archer's most substantive post so far was pre-written so I'm holding off on him as well, and I have no clue what to think about Mat xD Bridge seems slightly more competent than your typical newbie, but that could be due to any number of things so I'm not gonna worry about it too much yet. Now, given that we have about 7.5 hours left in the cycle, time to point out that the (stated) VC is Liranil (1): Quinn Jondesu (1): Matrim TUO (2): Illwei, Bridge and that both my vote and Mat's were pokes. @Flyingbooks and @PizzaPower55 have not posted yet. We need more votes, people! I'll move my vote to Matrim (Liranil) for now because he's the only person currently on my radar who's not new, returning, a village read, or one of [Gears, Illwei, Archer] (people that I'm pretty sure I just can't read). Idk, I got nothing here : P but I've gotten enough narrowed eyes for asking people to vote while not doing so myself in the past, so I figure I should vote here or something.
  18. Quintessential
    Okay, time to actually write something here! Usually I just avoid Aftermaths like the plague but I figure that here I'm kinda obligated to post xD Uh... sorry Araris and Striker : P There's an explanation towards the end of the dead doc for why I thought Araris was elim--I honestly don't blame myself for that, still, even knowing that Araris was actually village, but it woulda been nice if I'd figured out how to break out of that tunnel and I didn't. Striker was just plain paranoia on my part and had no actual reasoning behind it (in retrospect) so again, sorry. Also sorry to Illwei for getting her exed D1... I'm gonna try to avoid... that in future games : P Apart from all the apologies I've found myself owing, this game was pretty fun! Well, the beginning and the end anyway. Being the sole reason my team won was pretty great, so I'll take that and say it outweighs the v/v/v thunderdome of C4 (sidenote: now that I'm thinking about C4, I'm remembering that I was actually tempted to pretend I was actually elim and that I'd given up, with the thought that it might give me something to work off of based on how everyone reacted--well, and also I was kinda done with the game and figured getting myself exed was a quick way to end it. I didn't end up doing it 'cause Mat asked me not to, but... yeah. That was a thing : P)
  19. Quintessential
    Oh! yeah I can back this up lol I was on the thread as soon as it was posted and I'd barely finished poke-voting Liranil when Archer's post went up. There's a possibility he wrote it between getting his GM PM and when the thread was posted, I suppose, but I... don't really see why he'd do that I'd have pointed this out myself when Dannex voted Archer originally, but I'd forgotten : P Edit: wait that means my Archer village read was based on a pre-written post oops I'm rescinding that for the moment xD
  20. Quintessential
    That's more or less what I'd gotten as well less so on Archer, but that's just because he's harder to read imo. He manages to sound pretty reasonable as elim too, so I don't necessarily trust my early reads of him so much lol. But yeah, I have you (for the comment about trusts, as it happens), Tani, Dannex, and to a lesser extent Archer as fairly village. this is way more fun than thunderdoming with Illwei xD I should try this more often...
  21. Quintessential
    Out of curiosity, who?
  22. Quintessential
    It's a thought (or, it was before you said it for everyone to see ), but I generally err on the side of caution and ignore these things mostly--they could just be coincidences, and even more importantly, the elims might think of them too. Village reading Tani for this, though.
  23. Quintessential
    You may as well say it, I'm sure we're all capable of handling an IKYK now and then
  24. Quintessential
    I mean, that's actually the best case scenario. Either we don't coordinate, and there probably end up being less than 14 PMs, or we coordinate in-thread but sometimes have more than two PMs per player, in which case they can be eliminated even faster : P
  25. Quintessential
    4pm my time Pfff no even if I am elim, the easiest way to get caught is incorrectly relaying information that anyone technically could verify if they wanted to and/or were suspicious of me. I'm not the kind of person to leave that sort of loose end : P
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