Quintessential
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Ash and Forge are voting Striker. If they agreed to switch (with me and Striker) to Books, then Striker would have three votes and Books would have three votes.
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I think Connie is a better bet than you, so I'll do it for now. But I don't like this. Not at all. I may trust you somewhat but I don't trust TJ, who's the one who started it, and she can't be on to defend herself, and I'm pretty certain about (Books) at this point. If we can get one of @Ashbringer or @forget me not to switch to Books, would you vote them with me? That would be a tie, at least.
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>> c'mon, there's gotta be someone you're willing to vote who's not inactive. that seems a little unfair to Connie even if she is elim, there are still two others out there.
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Shoot, I had a whole big post in response to @Araris Valerian and then lost it loading Striker's comment. To summarize my points: Books may appear at face value to be cleared, but the thing is we can't really afford to take things at face value anymore. If we could, I'd be assuming the team was Striker/Connie/TJ and not questioning the fact that Striker has half the votes in the game and that TJ isn't doing anything to save him. You may be the only one openly defending Books, but Ash and Forge are both voting Striker rather than Books as well, and TJ (who voted when the VC was Striker-Books 3-2 I think?) is voting a Books voter. Also, Connie could easily be their teammate and not be doing anything because she's not on. So basically, there are plenty of candidates for Books teammates, and plenty of people either indirectly defending them or unable to do so. Actually, the exact argument you just tried to use for Books could be used much more effectively for Striker. Like I said, he has half the votes in the game. The only people defending him are... well, me. And TJ, but TJ's not doing anything to actually save him, so it wouldn't make sense to put him on a team with us, meaning that if you think Striker is elim at this point, you think the team is me/Striker/Connie. Period. No elim is gonna bus this cycle, and it's too late and the train on Striker is too long for us to think those votes are distancing. Also, has anyone else noticed that the same four people voting Striker were the ones voting Whysper in C3??? Seriously, how does that happen? @TJ Shade I'm not gonna argue the point further with you, but I just didn't have much to say, and what I did have to say, I didn't have the time to actually type out before things changed and it became irrelevant. Far as I'm concerned, that's at least NAI. If you're gonna vote me, you could at least go find some Whysper interactions or something--I village-read her up until she died, so there's at least some stuff where you could read it as me defending her : P.
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Okay, that's what I was hoping I'd hear. See, if e!Striker was on at the end of the cycle, then he could have switched from Araris to Books in order to try to save Whysper. Since he didn't do that... well. That makes me feel much better about him. Especially since he and Books are now voting each other, making it seem less likely that e!Striker didn't try to save Whysper because doing so would have been voting off e!Books. and e!Quinn wouldn't have said something??? As it happens, part of why I didn't is because I was too busy going back and forth between the thread and my notes doc, writing stuff down and keeping the VC up to date, and because one time I did try to write something out but by the time I'd finished, the conversation had totally moved on and it wasn't relevant anymore, so I just gave up and went back to taking notes.
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Quick Fix 52: Dancing in the Mists
Quintessential replied to Ashbringer's topic in Sanderson Elimination
Oooo this looks fun. I'm in! -
How does this make me suspicious? Either I wasn't on at the time, which would be totally NAI, or I was on and didn't see any reason to interfere with Whysper dying, which would be village indicative unless you think it was an elim ploy to bus her? As it happens, I was on up until the last minute (do you want that in blue text? : P), but I was perfectly happy with my vote on Araris and didn't see the need to say anything.
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Araris had a vote sitting on TJ for the entire duration of C2, while he argued during C4 that we shouldn't exe Connie (though he has apparently reversed that particular opinion of his in the interim). Also, Connie/Randby voted Araris in C3 while TJ voted Books. it should probably disturb me that I didn't have to look at my notes to know that. I have a fair number of VCs memorized by now...
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@Ashbringer what's making you conclude that Striker and I aren't e/e? That's the wrong phrasing of that question but I couldn't think of a better way to put it. What I mean is, Araris seems to think that Striker and I are e/e, so what are you seeing that he's not, or how are you interpreting things differently? I'd be okay voting Striker maybe? I just don't know what to think of him exactly... Oh, actually I had question for @StrikerEZ: were you on for the very end of C3? If you were, was there anything about the progression of votes on Whysper that seemed odd to you?
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: P yeahhhh it's even weirder on the inside. I have my suspicions, including Striker, and then Striker keeps voting on the people I'm suspicious of. Which makes me think that either I'm wrong about him or I'm wrong about literally everyone else, and I have no idea which. So I have no choice but to either vote him all the time or vote as if I wasn't worried that he agrees with me. It's not exactly confbiasy to assume that one of me/Striker is elim, just that it's not an assumption that anyone else is going to be making because you're within our high-activity group too. And I mean, as to the second part there must be something off there because I'm definitely village but that could be any number of things--maybe you're elim, or maybe the three of us are all village and gotten tangled around unfortunate but incorrect assumptions, or maybe e!Striker's been deliberately tying himself to me. idk.
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On the contrary, I've been on the verge of unvoting them this whole time. I just... don't know who to vote if I do unvote them, and not voting isn't an option with so few people left. I mean... idk how to rank these based on probability, per se, so I guess gut feeling is how I'm going here. Most likely [1] Araris, Books, one of TJ/Connie [3] 2 of Striker/TJ/Connie plus one of Forge/Ash [2] Striker/TJ/Connie. Least likely (the numbers reference the list in the original post, not the order I'm ranking them in : P). Would add that I still think that Araris, Books, and one of Forge/Ash is a very small possibility, which, realistically, I'd put just below [2]. Another possibility that I'd thought of was Books, Connie, and one of [Ash, Forge, maybe TJ???], which I'd put around where [1] is, but that's not a particularly specific team suggestion so idk how helpful that is.
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Yes well my train of thought on Books in C4 doesn't really line up with my current train of thought on Books. Like at all. So this shouldn't surprise you, maybe? I mean, if you're gonna call me out on inconsistencies you might as well use the big ones. Right, that's fair enough on the surface, but in order for that you'd need one of the elims to be someone who likes to play with IKYKs and think about them a lot... and the only person I can think of in this game who fits that description is you. Unless you've got any specific ideas for someone else? And we've already established that given your interactions with Whysper, e!you only makes sense if Books is also elim. So if I'm thinking the NK isn't meant to be an IKYK, then I'm sus of Books, but if I'm thinking it is meant to be an IKYK, then I'm... still sus of Books. Edit: and rereading that, I realize that isn't exactly what you were saying but as for the general nagging feeling, it doesn't mean I'm right but it's enough to get me to look outside my previous suspicions. If that makes sense. Yes and if your two biggest suspicions decided to band up and vote on you, and the thread turned into a thunderdome with you and the two of them, and literally no one else was talking, would you still be enjoying yourself? : P
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To be blunt: because pursuing my two main reads turned out to be too frustrating and emotionally taxing to be worth pursuing without more serious evidence, and my weaker reads weren't so much independent as in conjunction with you and Striker. Also, those weaker reads were TJ and Elan, not TJ and Connie, and Elan turned out to be village, which is making me rethink TJ as well. Also, I still have the nagging feeling that if I was right about the three people I suspected who haven't been proven village, or right about all of the people I cleared for interactions w/ Whysper, then I'd be dead by now, or one of the cleared people would be dead by now. However, I did want to say in response to TJ: Whysper doesn't play so much on here, but she is an experienced player on other sites, ones that focus far more on the social deduction aspect of the game than on the mechanics (as I believe she said at some point already this game). So chances are, if anyone in this game is good at in-thread distancing, it's Whysper. I worry that it might be dangerous for us to assume that Striker and Books are cleared because of Whysper's interactions with them, and what she said about them. Especially because I'd expect her to have said she was suspicious of at least one teammate, and Tani flipped vil so that leaves Striker and/or Books, yeah? Unless there were others that I'm missing, having not gone back and reread the whole thread : P
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I had a thought. We should all have like... 8 spheres right now, right? Or at least, we should all be able to afford Slips of Paper. So. What if we all agreed to buy Slips of Paper tonight, if we catch an elim today? (if not our only hope would be the Knife... which no one can afford yet... or a Legal Document or Armor in the right hands). You need to use your action in order to purchase things, which means that if the elims want to submit the kill, one of them will have to forgo the purchase of a slip of paper. Then, we have everyone say in-thread who they're gonna vote without actually voting that person, and use the slip of paper to vote instead. We require that every villager at least place a default vote, so that we can verify who does and doesn't have a Slip of Paper. That way, the elims have to forgo the kill or out one of their own (unless one of them happens to have a Slip of Paper on hand already, in which case no harm done, it's just a normal cycle). We compare any discrepencies in the final tally to what should have been there based on who each person said they'd vote, and that helps us narrow down who the elims are. Or at least, that's the idea. Probably wouldn't work... but I figured I'd suggest it. Ohhh xD okay. Just that... most people had three people on them....
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Heyyyy don't forget about my Araris/Books/[Forge,Ash] team!!! (this is the real bussing-paranoia team , don't listen to Araris when he tells you that's Araris/Books/[TJ, Connie]) Hey how come Araris only gave me as an answer? >> Striker and I agreed except for each other... both Araris and Striker have argued for TJ's death at one point or another, could be distancing or not, who knows... TJ is sus of both of them, according to this. TJ and Connie have the exact same reads... Elan had said she was sus of me and Striker (great : P), and Tani's only suspicion was Ash... who also appeared as a suspicion for TJ and Connie. Forge listed Elan as her only suspicion even though she was voting Araris for most of the cycle. K so I was hoping I'd think of something substantive to add to this but I didn't. : P
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Ugh okay so I have a headache from trying to figure this out. Things in response to @Araris Valerian: Books could be elim even if you're village, actually. Or at least, there aren't any interactions that I could find that make it seem unreasonable. But if you're elim, then you'd have self-presed on v!Books for sure instead of voting e!Whysper when no one else was. But yes, looking back at my notes that was a part of why I'd cleared Books in C4--not just that they voted Whysper, but Whysper voted them. As did you, which makes you/Whysper/Books look less likely. I may have suggested I was assuming you'd bus just... because during C4. As of... basically the end of C4, I've dropped that assumption because it's just not helpful and is kind of unfair. However, I will say that I am assuming e!you would know how to recognize when bussing is a good idea, and that you'd do it if it was. Like if you and Books were e/e. Which. Still looks less likely given that you and Whysper got Books into that mess in the first place As for TJ/Striker, I more meant that I can't see elims putting much effort into distancing this cycle. They don't have to play the long game anymore, or worry that if they're exed next cycle then they could give away their teammates by what they did this cycle and therefore a teammate would be exed the cycle after. All they have to do is get a villager exed rn. That's not a very high bar : P I concede that e!Striker might want to keep up appearances, though. So maybe I shouldn't dismiss TJ/Striker/Connie so easily, but that just feels really really easy and I'm wary of any solutions handed to me on a silver platter. Like I said already, the only way I can see you bussing Whysper at this point is if Books was elim too. In that case you'd have good reason to do it--GriLo would be pushed back no matter what you did, so may as well make it happen with as little damage done as possible. Otherwise you're village lol It's a luxury to assume that when you're playing >> jk jk I know I said I'd stop : P but really, I'm allowing myself very few assumptions here. Basically, they are: Araris won't have voted Whysper C3 unless he's village or he and Books are both elims; Quinn is village. that's... literally it. I can envision scenarios in which e!Books, e!Forge, or e!Ash might vote Whysper, independent of their teammates. So yes, on the one hand you probably have a point that there's probably an elim in TJ/Striker/Connie, but I balk at the idea of largely ignoring the other four in favor of those three. Aaaaannnddd yep I'm also a bit of a hypocrite, since in focusing on the Whysper 4 I'm ignoring the other 3. Though I'd point out that for me the odds by pure probability are that I'll find an elim in the Whysper 4, since I know my own alignment. but of course that's true of you for the non-Whysper voters... so I'm basically doing exactly what you were doing... hence the hypocrite thing. Basically I just don't have anything on TJ or Connie. And I don't trust my read of Striker anymore because I have the feeling it may be clouded by negative stuff from C4, and have more to do with my personal feeling towards him rn than my thoughts on whether he's elim or not. If Books is elim and you're village, then I'd be quite suspicious of Connie, but that's basically all I've got and I already said that anyway. Beyond that, I've been trying to put any kind of coherent picture together and I can't. Or rather, I can but there are two many different, conflicting coherent pictures. 3 of the other 7 players in this game are elims, so I never know if I can trust others' interpretation or criticism of my own thoughts because they could be elims misleading me on purpose. But I also don't know whether to trust myself here because (and you just pointed out a couple of specific examples of this : P) I have blind spots and biases. There's nothing that precludes a TJ/Connie/Striker team, but I can't find much that suggests it either except process of elimination that may be based on faulty assumptions. Voting one of the three might be guaranteed to hit an elim, or it might be a coinflip. Similarly, there's nothing that precludes a you/Books/[Forge, Ash] team except that would suggest that you and Whysper are incompetent... which... I mean we just saw an example of me overestimating an elim in MR49 so I'm wary of doing that too. So this is my long-winded way of saying I don't know, and I don't know whether I trust you or anyone and this would be a lot easier if I did because then at least I could discuss with someone without worrying I'm being deceived. Edit: god this is like on multiple choice tests where you reach a question where you know that the answer is like... A or C but you can't pick one because you know whichever one you end up picking will end up being wrong xD
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Pretty sure Striker's voting Books because Books is the only player available for Striker to self-pres on, but sure, read into it if you want to. : P As to the rest of that post: I decided to start this cycle with a clean slate, as should be obvious given that I'm at least not voting either you or Striker (...yet). So because of the clean-slate thing, I'm not labeling anyone cleared at this point. Something feels wrong about to me about... well, everything that's happened this game and I can't put my finger on it but nothing quite lines up or makes sense. If I assume that all of the people who voted on Whysper are village, then that leaves me with a team of Striker/TJ/Connie. But Striker keeps trying to get TJ killed, which doesn't... really make sense for e/e interactions this late in the game. The elims just have to get one more misexe to gain control of the thread, so why waste a cycle bussing (or seriously distancing from) a teammate? It could be distancing, but that inconsistency is more than enough for me to feel justified looking at the Whysper voters. To ignore them would be to ignore half of the current players, and more than half of the ones who could be on the team from my POV, and I'm not about to do that. It worries me that you're arguing I should. As a matter of fact, this was exactly the response I was expecting from you but hoping I wouldn't see. None of the villagers left have the luxury of ignoring players just because they got an elim voted off; it's not likely that the team agreed to outright bus someone but it's not an impossibility, and if that's the case then they could all be voting Whysper. Again, not likely, but it's not a possibility we can afford to dismiss. Besides which, I can think of less drastic scenarios where any one or two of the four could be elims, having decided to bus because of the specific scenario and whatnot. And yet, instead of considering those possibilities you've decided to trust the three non-you Whysper voters (no, you haven't explicitly said you trust all of them but this is XLo so suggesting we ignore them has the same practical effects), and you've more or less stated that it's suspicious that Striker and I aren't doing so. So I don't know what to think anymore. I don't know whether I think e!Araris is defending e!Books, or whether e!Araris is indirectly protecting another Whysper voter by defending v!Books, or whether v!Araris just isn't worried about the possibility that maybe up until now, we've been wayyyyy off course--and by "we", I mean "we the villagers who haven't been NKd yet". The elims seem to be perfectly fine with how things are going, as far as I can tell, since the mainstream views last cycle were voiced by one of me/Striker/Araris and none of us were NKd. None of those possibilities around Araris make much sense, but tbh the one that makes the most sense to me is that Araris/Books are e/e. Because... Araris is an experienced player, and v!him... tends to think things through? Or at least that's the impression I've gotten. Outright dismissing half the players for consideration when we're literally at XLo doesn't seem like him. (correct me if I'm wrong and overestimating you, please, and then maybe we can have a nice logical conversation about all of the players and their probabilities of being elim ) If Araris is elim and Books is village, then why the heck didn't Araris just self-pres on Books instead of voting an elim who had no votes? This is the possibility that makes the least sense of all. So that leaves: if Araris/Books are e/e, I can actually think of a plausible scenario where they would have started a train on another elim: because she was vanilla, and neither of them were, and they were worried that whichever of them survived C3 would die C4, and they knew there were people who were suspicious of Whysper already because she'd been a countertrain to Dannex the previous cycle. So. There are my thoughts. More or less laid out plainly. I'm not sure who the last elim would be in a Whysper/Araris/Books reality, but I'd guess one of Forge or Ash. Have fun reading and responding to that while I eat dinner
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There should be anyway, you're right. I've been holding off voting since I was waiting to see what everyone had to say about my theory, but since no one has said anything I'll just vote now. Books. To reiterate why: their vote during C2 looks like a distancing vote on Whysper in retrospect. At the time they placed it, the VC was Dannex-Whysper 7-2, meaning that even knowing about Dannex's vote-manip, an elim could still have felt fairly safe placing a distancing vote on her without actually putting her in danger. the explanation for why they might bus Whysper C3 is the same as for Araris--Whysper was vanilla, and e!Books might well have a role--but it makes more sense for e!Books to do it than e!Araris because Araris was the first voter, and probably could have chosen to try to shift votes onto a suspicious villager if that was his intention. Books, on the other hand, would have been voting on a teammate who already had a vote, and at the request of someone else (in this scenario, Araris would probably be village). they weren't NKd last Night??? I mean, really, this is what made me think of it in the first place. This elim team seems to like killing players who are A. low-info (like TUO and Gears) or B. a threat (like Archer, the primary voice against Whysper) while avoiding killing active players. Books fits both of those bills--they haven't been that active, and they got an elim exed, voting on her both cycles when she was in danger. So why haven't the elims NK'd Books? Beyond that, I can't recall much of anything that Books has done that made me think they were village, apart from voting Whysper, which I'm realizing now is maybe not as much of a guarantee of their being cleared as I'd thought it was--whereas for most other players that I'm suspicious of, I can think of something. There have been things that seem... like, an elim pointing something out for village credit? Specifically, right now, I'm thinking of their first post, pointing out that it's XLo. Not just the content but the tone felt elimmy to me. I guess... okay, thing is, I want to believe that both Araris and Striker are village, but I can't. Simply because the choices for NKs have been really really smart, and half of them happened after Whysper died so I can't really attribute that to her alone. Actually, the NK choices seem like Araris to me, or at least killing TUO and Gears does. Archer too, really, since he was a voice against Whysper and then revealed that he was an HP. And I could see a Tani kill being because Sadeas scanned her and Araris wanted to take out PMs I could also see the NK choices being Striker's, though less so. But one way or another this doesn't feel like a team of near-inactives, and I know I'm not elim, so that leaves me with the conclusion that one of the other two active players is. If that makes sense? I'm not voting either of them because... well because I don't know which one I'd choose. Or I'm leaning towards Araris but I suspect that would be an unpopular stance, given the reactions I got last time I voted him : P
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Ah, okay, that makes sense then. I definitely wasn't worried you enacting an elim ploy along the lines of what QF48!me did to QF48!Gears. Nope. Not at all.
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Did you submit an action? If not you wouldn't have. I got a message from Mat saying I successfully RBd you, so either you didn't submit an action or you're lying
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Yeah. I was planning to vote you, and maybe I still will, but we need to think about this carefully first so I'll hold off for now. I don't have time to do anything too in-depth with votes, and I'm not sure I want to given how my last post like that was received, but here are the final VCs from each cycle so far. I won't green in my name for these, so that it's easier for everyone else to use them for reference, but obviously I'm gonna leave myself out of any of my own team speculation : P C1: Illwei (5): Archer, Forge, Araris, Elan, Striker Connie (1): TJ Dannex (5): Whysper, Illwei, Tani, Quinn, Ash Tani (1): Dannex C2: Dannex (6): Elan, Quinn, Whysper, Striker, TJ, Forge TJ (1): Araris Whysper (4): Archer, Dannex, Books, Tani C3: Araris (3): Striker, Quinn, Connie Books (3): Whysper, TJ, Elan Quinn (1): Tani Whysper (4): Araris, Forge, Ash, Books C4: Elan (4): TJ, Striker, Ash, Books Araris (1): Forge TJ (1): Elan Striker (2): Quinn, Araris The thing that stands out to me, really, is that the elims didn't kill any of the people who were final votes on Whysper the cycle she died, even though in theory those players should be more widely village-read than anyone, and the least likely to get misexed. I can understand excluding Araris for... well, for me attacking him, and Forge for being new, but why Ash and Books? Why kill Tani? That's what's bothering me most ig. Beyond that, I still think it's unlikely that all five final votes on Illwei were villagers, so one of [Forge, Araris, Striker] should be elim? If an elim other than Whysper voted Dannex that cycle, then it's me or Ash (well, for me I know it's Ash if anyone 'cause I know I'm vil, but for the rest of you, it's me or Ash). C2, I could mayyybee see all the non-confirmed votes on Dannex being villagers, but that's half the people currently still alive so I doubt it. That makes this [Quinn, Striker, TJ, Forge], which doesn't narrow it down much at all. Slightly more for me since I'm able to take my own name out, but... not helpful. If an elim voted Whysper to get vil credit, then it was Books (since the other three Whysper voters are confirmed vil). I still think Araris's TJ vote was weird, but at this point it's not enough to deserve an exe so I half don't know why I'm noting it. C3 is interesting because every person who is currently alive voted that cycle. Well, and there was an elim on the line, obviously. The first thing, which I've said already, is that it worries me that none of the Whysper voters from C3 were NKd. This team has tended towards low-activity, low-info kills, but we had kind of consensus-cleared Books and Forge (iirc) so they would be the people that would make the most sense to NK, especially since neither of them have been high activity. I don't... really understand why they're both still alive. Beyond that, though, since we know that all three (I'm just gonna assume there are three : P) living elims voted this cycle. I would guess they're spread out among the three main trains, and didn't all vote on one person. Well. Unless they all decided to bus Whysper : P but unfortunately that doesn't help us very much 'cause there's so many of us, and... yeah. I will say, though, that tbh I'm leaning towards Books, almost. It's incredibly tinfoily, but... just. I was predicting they'd be the NK unless I was. And yet neither of us were. And I don't get it. Also, their Whysper vote C2 does in hindsight look a bit like a distancing vote, since at the time Dannex had seven votes to Whysper's 2, which was probably a wide enough margin for a single elim to feel comfortable adding their vote... yeah. And then if Books was an elim role, perhaps even Sadeas, then the same argument goes for them bussing Whysper C3 that I'd had for Araris, but perhaps a bit stronger since Books wasn't pulling the shift out of thin air, Whysper had Araris's vote already and Araris specifically tried to convince Books to switch. Where that leaves everyone else, idk, but--wait. That makes Connie look sus because when there was a tie between Araris and Books (3-3, during C3), Randby chose to vote Araris... Could also see either one of Forge and Ash being elim, and following Books to bus their teammate. Would lean towards Ash because I also have a hard time understanding why the elim team didn't NK him, in the scenario where they didn't want to kill off newbie!Forge and had some other objection to Books (like, for example, if Books is on the team ). okay so anyway, still not voting yet because I want to come back to this in the morning and see how much of it slightly-more-rested me still agrees with, and also what everyone else thinks, but this is me being worried that we were all on the complete wrong track before and... deciding to do something about it. oof. ninja'd by Forge, I'll post and then read what she said.
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Possibly unimportant question: of the four people I had said were cleared for their interactions with Whysper, who had everyone said they doubted? That is, who of Tani/Books/Forge/Ash did everyone say they weren't necessarily ready to trust? I ask because I know some people were still sus of Tani, but I think there was at least one of the four (Books, maybe?) who was more trusted but would give less info if they died. So... I'm confused why that person wasn't killed. idk, maybe that's tinfoil. But. Something to think about.
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Tani opened a PM with me last Night. She didn't tell me she was the one who opened it, and she never claimed, instead saying that she also had PMs with the real spanreed operator and with Forge. I don't know whether she claimed to Forge or not.
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well I'm blocking Araris
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Er btw should probably point out the edits that Tani added to her last post and also respond to the one regarding me. @Gneorndin I blocked Archer C2 and Striker C3, so if you were blocked it means there's a second RBer. Unless your action was to use an Assassin kill, in which case it could also mean that the person you targeted had purchased armor or a contract of peace the previous Night? Though I'm not sure whether anyone would have had enough spheres for that, hmmmm.
