Flyingbooks

Since TUO has responded, I'll switch my vote to Mat.

I did the quiz again and I got:

Truthwatcher:64%

Lightweaver: 53%

Willshaper: 45%

Elsecaller:26%

Dustbringer:18%

Edgedancer:18%

Windrunner:17%

Stoneward:-1%

Skybreaker:-2%

Bondsmith:-21%

Lightweaver is now much higher compared to Willshaper than it was before.

I'll put a vote on TUO until they give any thoughts at all about the game.

(and by the way, my AP tests are wednesday & thursday, not tuesday & wednesday. I was mistaken before.)

*knocks down the pineapples that the chanting is making*

I have AP tests coming up on Tuesday & Wednesday, so I'm not going to really be active until after that.

I will take my vote off of Araris because of his claim.

I haven't really been paying attention to the game since the beginning of this cycle due to IRL stuff, but Matrim feels more suspicious to me than Biplet.

Happy pride month!

(agender, aro, and ace flag colors since I'm aro, ace, & agender)

I'm a windwhisper and I scanned Araris with 2 charges of tin tongiht. He targeted Manukos, so there is a high probability that he was an elim & killed them.

Veren sipped carefully at their hot tea at a corner booth in the tavern as they spread their notes and some police drawings of the murdered peoples’ bodies over the table. The injuries of two of the three seemed to be caused by spikes dealing vital blows. This could only mean one thing: hemalurgists. They probably weren’t rebels, since one of the victims turned out to be a rebel after their personal items had been investigated posthumously, so the others here didn’t really care about investigating any of the murders other than the one presumably done by rebels, especially since this small town wouldn't have too many Hemalurgical-grade spikes for the Hemalurgist(s) to restock with. Veren, however, was not too worried about the rebels but hated Hemalurgy on principle. This was why, once again, Veren was awake late into the night, but this time they had some crimes of their own to solve. They were no detective, but as everyone with more experience in investigation was focusing on finding the rebels, they would have to try to figure this case out themselves. Veren thought, somewhat morbidly, all the executions and murders going on would be helpful in increasing the likelihood of a Hemalurgist being caught.

I'm not going to be on again until after the end of the cycle, so I'll look at the actions of and reasoning about everybody who has at least one vote (as of when I am writing this), list the relevant (to me) facts about all of those people who I think have valid reasoning about them, and vote on one of them. I’m mostly going to use the reasoning that other people provided, but I’m looking at it from my own perspective & deciding what I think is significant.

TJ

Was the person who actually broke the tie, which saved Mat. So if TJ is an elim, then I think Mat probably is too.

Read Lotus as an elim due to only RPing even though it would’ve been easy to mark that as a reason for a null read. However, this could theoretically just be distancing.

Ashbringer

Their vote was the most suspicious of the votes on Experience because their reasoning was tie avoidance, and it makes sense that at least one person on that train would be an elim

I don’t agree with the reasoning on the other three (Szeth, Ventyl, and Araris). Szeth’s reluctance to so analysis at the beginning of D1 is apparently typical for them, Ventyl’s negative-attention-getting-behavior seems like something that an elim would avoid, and Ashbringer’s claim that Araris is piggybacking is built on shaky connections.

I am somewhat suspicious of TJ & if they flip elim then that implicates Mat due to TJ breaking the tie, but I’m a bit worried that they were the one who killed Lotus because they’ve been the only person to elim-read Lotus, and I don’t want us to lose another powerful role this earlier in the game. My suspicion levels about Ashbringer are slightly less than of TJ. I think I’ll take the risk of killing a possible coinshot and vote on TJ.

Although it was the middle of the night, Veren wandered through the streets with their long, dark coat wrapped tightly around them against the chill. As they walked, they thought about the messenger’s recent demise. Although he had honestly been acting very suspicious - he had barely been seen around town recently, he had not spoken to anyone else since the rebels had talked everyone here, and his shows of loyalty often seemed so extreme that they had to be faked - Veren had been unconvinced that he was an infiltrator from the very beginning. The rebels would hardly send in somebody so unskilled at keeping attention away from themself, after all. It was getting rather late, so Veren started to walk back to their rented room on the floor above the tavern. When they opened the door to the tavern, the smells of warm food reminded them that they hadn't had a proper meal since noon because of all of the excitement of the day. Veren ordered stone food and, as they ate, noticed that several fellow meeting participants were also here. They made a mental note to themself to talk to them tomorrow, and then went to bed. They'd need all the meager hours of sleep they could get for tomorrow.

Veren watched the discussion, idly twirling their pencil in their hands. They searched for potential allies and people in useful positions more than rebels. They would be happy to catch the rebels, but it wasn’t their first priority. The rebels were present here & potentially dangerous and Veren was stuck here because of their actions, but those were both situations that they could try to turn to their advantage. And if the rebels tried to kill them, they could probably spin up an argument about how they were trying to change the status quo too, albeit in a different manner, so Veren wasn’t as worried as they could be about that.

It’d certainly be a good idea to get in touch with Earl, the journalist. The ability to influence what people all over Elendel read about this situation would be powerful. He seemed to disappear every so often though and he had been gone for the past few hours, so it might be difficult to find him.

Juno was… certainly creative and open to new ideas. She might not be particularly consistent in the ideas she espoused, but original ideas would be vital to changing the balance of power in Elendel.

Josephine and Lumen were both in positions which were often overlooked but potentially powerful. Now, Veren might be a bit biased here because they had a similar position as an assistant to the Elendel representatives, but it really was true that working behind the scenes could be immensely effective.

-------

My incomplete thoughts about a few people:

DrakeMarshall

They put out a potential elim strategy, which points a bit in favor of them being village, but the phrasing makes me a bit gut-suspicious

On 5/29/2021 at 3:35 PM, DrakeMarshall said:

I wouldn't worry too much about differentiating kandra and elims at this point: if we can manage to catch either today we're already doing quite well

???

This strikes me as a bit strange. It's not immediately, obviously suspicioius, but it feels a bit off to me

They said literally the most obvious things in their thoughts about the roles, and later said that they weren't trying to inflate the word count of that post. That makes it feel a bit like trying to look helpful while not really adding anything

Their more recent posts feel less suspicious to me. Maybe they're just getting used to playing again, either as an elim or a villager?

Ventyl

Doing everything “for comedic value” draws a lot of negative attention, which an elim especially wouldn’t want this early in the game, so that makes me read them as slight village.

Archer

They immediately startied to do useful analysis from the beginning, which makes me read them as leaning village, plus my gut read on them is positive.

Experience

The votes on experience seem to mostly be because of their inactivity. I won't be joining that train because it feels wrong to vote out somebody before they can even play at all, much less defend themselves.

I think that I will switch my vote from Dannex to DrakeMarshall, since I'm a bit suspicious of them for the reasons outlined above. I will most likely not be on again until after the cycle ends.

(also, I would very much appreciate more PMs)

My thoughts about the rules so far:

Because items and boxings are spread among the voters on an executed person, there's an additional incentive to join bandwagons, which compounds on itself. If somebody would rather have someone other than whatever the current leading candidate is executed, there's the additional factor of potential lost boxing's or items. It's even more important than usual to be careful of bandwagons since it's easier for elims to start and keep them. Promising to switch to vote for someone else if enough other people are willing to switch too might be a good way to mitigate that a bit.

Pulsers could collaborate with someone else to make up to four of their actions occur on the same turn(or up to six with an assisting nicroburst too). This could be especially helpful for information gathering-type roles because it would allow them to scan a large segment of the population at once and get a fuller picture of a turn. Steelrunners could make this even more extreme. A steelrunner/tineye could potentially scan everybody in one turn, letting them see for certain who targeted the night's elim kill victim.

I suspect that some of the feruchemical roles, such as windwhispers and sparkers, will be revealed rather quickly since they affect the actions that someone can do while storing.

I'm a bit unclear about the black market. Does it have any items on it by default or can it only get items from players selling to it?

Veren was, admittedly, a bit happy that all of the representatives were stuck here. It would give them a chance to make more connections and gain more influence. Of course, they did not condone the rebels or their actions (at least not officially), but they would be a fool to not see and take advantage of the opportunities that this chaos provided. The outer basin was less stratified on political power and more welcoming of new ideas than Elendel (see: the aforementioned rebel problem), so influencing their representatives would be easier than changing Elendel. Somehow, despite all the changes that Scadrial had gone through on the past few hundred years - and in Elendel, especially in the few decades - nobles in some form or another always managed to hang on to power. Like cockroaches. Veren supposed that part of the reason was the centralization. First with the Lord Ruler and now with Elendel, there was always a single center of political and economic power, and of course the people in charge wouldn't want to let go of their influence. But if the outer basin got more negotiating power due to Elendel's fear of what the rebels might do, then Elendel would be forced to listen to their demands. And it was Veren's intention to make sure those demands included a forcible curtailing of noble power.

Dannex. Poke poke.

I'd welcome somebody PMing me, whether for RP or discussion

I'd like to sign up as Veren, an assistant to the Elendel representatives who is trying to decrease the influence of the nobility in government and who *may* be meeting with the Garmet representatives in secret and sneaking some of their suggestions into the Elendel representatives' agenda.

I prefer pizza with just cheese and sauce most of the time, but I also like tomatoes and/or mushrooms on it.

I personally don't like the idea of pineapple pizza (especially since I'm allergic to it), but I don't see a problem with other people enjoying it.

On 5/17/2021 at 8:15 AM, Spectromixer said:

Stick confirmed to be in the DC universe 

This is sort of irrelevant but my brain led me from this post to this fact anyways: in Norse mythology, Laevateinn is a weapon (commentators & translators don't agree on the type of weapon) crafted by Loki, and one of the translations of the name is "damage twig." Therefore, stick has been powerful for millenia.

Rust and ruin. Now I lost the game.

Yesterday was agender pride day!

(I'm agender btw)

As I am not Danforth, it will not be a tie.

11 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

And speaking of passing the Pendant... Books, why’d you give it to Archer and not to me?

Because at the time, I was still a bit paranoid about the potential for an elim Silence, while I am totally confident in Archer being village.

Of course I'm desperate. I would very much prefer not to die.

And even if I wasn't scanned passing it, then it still wouldn't be a good plan for the elims because it'd give the village a protection item. Plus, in that scenario, the elim surveyor could have contacted Archer instead of me and there would not have been the possibility of a scan outing me. It's not a very plausible alternative, even you admit that that plan would have been full of potential holes where it could be discovered by scans, which everybody has access to.

@Ashbringer @Jondesu @Archer @Matrim's Dice (and, though unlikely, @Szeth_Pancakes @Quintessential), are you going to change your votes?

Maybe the overlap argument makes sense, but I believe that it is by far overshadowed by the action-evidence. The main evidence against Quinn being an elim is her push of an Araris exe, but that could easily be distancing. Meanwhile, I handed a protection item to Archer, which would have been a horrible decision if I was an elim. This isn't very good for my case, but I admit it does sound a bit like the sort of thing that I might do as an elim (see: LG73 Shadowblaze). However, it's far too extreme, even for me, if I was Danforth. If one of me or Quinn must be Danforth, then I I would not be an elim surveyor because e/e me/quinn is rather implausible. (from my point of view I know that am a villager, but I am trying to make this argument from the perspective of an outside observer who does not know my alignment for certain) Thus, I would have to use up 2 player night turns (instead of just the one that having the elim surveyor pass it, which would have the same theoretical increase in trust, would), decreasing kill versatility, risk failing to give Archer the totem, and make it more difficult to kill villagers in the future now that there's another protection item in circulation, all for a little bit of a potential increase in trust.

The cycle that I scanned Szeth and got no-action, they could have  had a Pallid Mask, concealing a theoretical kill action. 

My prediction for the remaining elim team is Quinn & Szeth

2 hours ago, Matrim's Dice said:

...The major flaw with this is that Danforth gets to decide which way the tie goes :P.

I've made my case for Books, no need to say it again. But I'd suggest you guys cohesify the exe a bit more. I'll move if I need to but Books is mathematically the best option here.

Maybe mathematically, but not based on my actions. Giving a protection from elims item to a confirmed villager would be a bad idea for the elim!me, even more so for Danforth!me.

I am beginning to suspect that Szeth & Quinn are e/e if there are 4 elims. Szeth could cover up sending in a kill by saying that they got a hidden transcript & having Quinn tell them about what she talked about in some PM. 

On 5/10/2021 at 10:33 AM, Szeth_Pancakes said:

@Archer Do you want to coordinate votes? I think that would be useful for a coordinated village effort. also I don't want to be misexed

17 hours ago, Szeth_Pancakes said:

I trust you :). I just wanted to make sure everyone else did so that we can go for a unified Books lynch.

These posts strike me the wrong way. Maybe I'm just biased against my own exe, but they feel sort of... controlling? If you get what I mean.

Can somebody who took notes on D1 tell me if Araris was ever in any clear & present danger of being exed D1? Because if not, then it increases the probability of that being distancing.