Whysper

Hmmm yeah, I'm a bit confused by it. Here's more to the description. I suppose you could be right that the "improvements" are just flavor text for the switch to losing kill immunity but now gaining access to the Elim doc.

I agree that it matters much less. But there was that thing about how the Elim Hemas can start to improve the HI after the Village Hemas are gone. Not sure what those improvements are. That's why I'm still hesitant on killing off Villager Hemas.

Whysper - me Burnt Spaghetti - strong Villager TJ Shade - strong Villager Araris Valerian - mild Villager Danex - mild Villager Condensation - null (Hema so maybe ignore for now) Flyingbooks42 - mild Elim The Windrunner Supreme - mild Elim A Windrunner - mild Elim Vapor - strong Elim Lord_Silberfarben - strong Elim Mist - HI (never lynch) Okay, this is what I have at this point for my reads. We have at least 4 Elims left. I think if we just go with lynching within the 5-person PoE, we should get them. If that's not all of them, then Condensation next. If still not all and we are still somehow alive, then Danex next followed by Araris. Elantrian, please just make it somewhat random who you protect among the 5-person Villager pool. Have to hope the Elims pick the same target.

Man, I've been pondering whether to chew you out for wasting the lynch. Mist was 90% certain to be the HI and could just be ignored. An Elim would have openly admitted to being Voidbringer to keep from getting killed by us wanting to verify they are HI. Anyway, already done. We still have a chance. This pings me as an attempt to look like they aren't an Elim. At this point I'm debating whether Villagers should just out all info so we can work through this. I don't think it's going to matter much about losing Hemas and the HI going free now. We already know the HI and now the Elims are going to get info from them. We are pretty much at the point where we need to make correct lynches or lose. Any Villager with a strong opinion on why we shouldn't just bring everything to the table and figure this out? I'm hesitant to do it, but I almost think such a bold play is needed at this point. My strongest Villager reads are Burnt (Elk) and TJ at this point. Araris and Danex are Village leans.

Ahh okay. Yeah, either Voidbringer or healed by Elantrian. I think we can pretty much assume she's HI. Hmm, okay. I see your reasoning now. Still, I don't think it likely he'd make that claim. But I'll keep it in mind. Originally I was thinking it might be good to lynch Mist to verify her as HI. But I think we can pretty safely assume she is HI and ignore lynching her unless we happen to accidentally lynch the real HI. And yeah, I'm still suspicious of Connie. She might be Elim Hema. But we can still also leave her for later. There are still quite a few other Elims to get. Good idea to analyze this. But for the most part, his reads pretty much follow the general consensus. Okay, so for a vote? I'm thinking either Silber or Vapor. I did see that Araris already voted for Vapor. I could see how the Elims perhaps pushed them to get back to posting so they didn't get replaced out. Vapor

I'm strongly suspecting that she is indeed the HI. I agree that it's very unlikely that a Village Elantrian protected Mist. If one did, we might need to have them claim at some point just so we can clarify if Mist is HI. When I skimmed through some later posts, I didn't see Mist claim to be Voidbringer. So yeah, I agree that lynching Mist just to check might be worth doing. We'll see what else comes up and decide. Ahhh yes, good point. If someone did happen to roleblock a player, then we have a known Elim. Welcome, Burnt! I doubt this, but if an Awakener did happen to do this, we might want a claim since that will clarify the events. This would mean the Elims did indeed target Mist and didn't forget to submit a kill. Thank you for considering things in regards to what might be best as a team. Huh? Why would Village Mist claim something they are not? That wouldn't be good as Village to fake claim. I'm not understanding why you are thinking Danex would fake claim Mistborn in the first place? What would be the purpose as Elim? This is basically my view of things at this point as well. Along with that PoE you listed, though it's larger than I'd like since we probably don't have many more cycles. We would want to put Condensation towards the end because of her Hema claim. Actually they might have suspected that she was a Hema for some reason. That would be my best guess. Yeah, the night kills are certainly baffling. The only other point I can think of is that they are worried that one of these targets would be protected by the Elantrian, so they are whittling away at other targets. Okay, gotta stop my post here. I'll continue through the thread later when I get more time. Things are actually getting rather interesting now.

He put down 5 as the number of remaining Elims and separated the HI already. So that would mean he's guessing 6 starting Elims (not including HI).

At this point I feel you are just tunneling TJ. You are seeing everything he's done as something a clever Elim can do. And yeah, technically anything fits in that category if you tinfoil it enough. Now I'm not saying it isn't possible that TJ is Elim. He very well could be an Elim making clever moves. But a lot of this game is about odds. You have to look at all the various actions someone has done and consider the chances that they do all that as Elim. For example, TJ as Feruchemist didn't save Ash when he very well could have manipulated a vote from Ash to Books. He voted on the Lotus wagon even though there were already enough votes for a lynch. An Elim would already know she'd flip VIllager and would actually avoid getting on a Villager wagon. No, these and other pieces of evidence are enough to convince me TJ is very likely a Villager. And these piling on of votes by people I already find suspicious just add to my suspicion. Araris gave a reasonable view of why he thinks TJ is a Villager. And all you have to say is you have bad feelings about him. And then hedge on this. Yet finally switching a vote from TJ to Araris so easily based on gut? Oh man, I think you've gone to top Elim read for me now. Experience I like that you said this because it makes me feel a little better about you. I know you are new, so I've been trying to see your excessive paranoia from that viewpoint. But the conclusion you came to doesn't make sense. It would never be all 3 of them playing Elim theater just to split the vote. I was actually wondering if we are normally notified of LyLo in games on this site. At FoL we usually are. When I read this, I started to feel bad for my recent drop in activity. Sorry, I should have kept more involved and helped more. Just busier recently, plus a bit of loss in spirit for this game due to so many Villager flips. But at least we did get one Elim already. And I think we still have a chance. As for your reads, looks mostly good. I think we do need to focus on all those nulls, which mostly correspond with ones I find null, too. I seriously think a few of the Elims fall in there, like Silber, Supreme, Books, and Wind. The problem is that we do still have a few not saying much. Mist placed them as null, but in a way, this far in the game, they should all be defaulted to Elim leans at least. Yes, exactly. I think Danex is tunneling you at this point. I'm seriously debating whether to vote him as a policy lynch. His tunneling is getting sheeped by others who I think might be Elims. While I give Danex a slight Villager lean, it's not very strong. Also, I'm worried that he is indeed a Mistborn and might try to kill you. I lean towards believing his Mistborn claim. I can't see why he'd make a fake claim for this. And yes, Danex does fit that team profile you described.

Haha, interesting

And what's up with the doc for the Lord Ruler to scheme in? They just scheme with themselves?

Just to confirm, TJ was indeed the AnonFeru I was talking about earlier. They claimed the same night Devotary claimed to me. Yeah, Illwei is a she. I was surprised too. I confirmed with her in a PM one of the nights. I did have a small lingering thought that Illwei might still be HI because she survived that one NK. But I figured it didn't matter since I was convinced she was a Villager. So whether Villager or HI, we wouldn't target her for lynch ever. But now I have no clue who might be HI. Right, this often happens in games where most of the time the Village is accidentally MLing themselves, so Elims don't need to get involved much. So yeah, it would be good to go back through votes and check. Also, I'm still convinced most of the Elim team is made up of inexperienced and/or less involved players due to the Aman kill.

Oh, I have to join this one. It's Mistborn.

I'm fairly sure TJ is a Villager, so please don't vote him nor kill him overnight. I think we need to start removing some of the suspicious low-activity slots. We are already D5, so there has been enough time to get involved. The most suspicious slot is Lotus. They haven't been involved much except mostly to vote, and the voting patterns look opportunistic. They mentioned that they don't usually vote the first round of playing, yet voted for Turtle and gave no reasoning. When questioned about it, they didn't answer and are still avoiding answering. @Lotus, I don't think you answered this question. Missed it. Uhh.... what round was that? What does it matter which round? They should still be able to give a reasoning. Or there was enough time to go back and look by now if they needed to refresh their memory. They also voted for Books, the CW to Ash, who flipped Elim. This looks like a possible attempt to save him. So I haven't seen anything particularly Village from Lotus and a few things suspicious, so they get my vote. Lotus

Yes, exactly. The Aman kill is very odd assuming that he was the one who killed Turtle, which is highly likely. I'm starting to think Elk might have been right when he theorized after the Gears kill that we might be dealing with mostly new Elims. Other Elims who aren't quite as new might not be involved and paying attention as much. I think Ashbringer isn't new, but then he was lynched D4 and didn't have part in the decision for the N4 NK. So the remaining Elims might be inexperienced since the Aman kill was probably one of the worst choices. He had already used his one kill (again assumed, but highly likely). He wasn't universally read as Villager, so keeping him in the PoE would have been ideal. He was posting less and would get suspicion for that. We don't know for certain since he never claimed the kill, but it's highly likely. There were 2 kills N3 and Turtle was one of them. She was under high suspicion. Even though she apparently claimed Hema, Aman might have missed that because I did also. Or Aman felt she was still suspicious enough to be Elim and wanted to clear the slot.

Yes, I've actually had a growing suspicion of them as well. I've seen the sheeping of votes with little else. I went back to look at that long post. I understand how you could see it as prompted by Elim teammates, though I could also see it as finally getting around to participating more. Hard to tell. The post itself doesn't sound bad. So while I have some suspicions of Books, I don't feel comfortable going there yet for today's vote. The problem is that the Elims blend in and don't make it obvious. That's the whole point of this game. And the more you argue with appeals to IRL morality and ethics, the more I'm getting an Elim vibe. It's like a little pressure was applied to you and now you are cracking, which is something I could see happening to a newbie Elim.

Well now, you are either an Elim or an unwise Villager. Even if you felt you picked up on this and think he's Hema, you really shouldn't point it out in the thread. It's not like it helps Village at this point since Illwei isn't in danger of getting lynched.

Ahhh, thanks! Oh man, I know the feeling. Then the next games are colored by this and you feel that you should go after the really wolfie players and then find out that they weren't. And then the cycle continues... Oh, hmmm. Not sure how much I trust that you aren't Elim Hema, but Illwei's right that we should hold off voting anyone with a Hema claim and let it get resolved later. I'll move my vote to Ashbringer since he was the other one I was most suspicious of. Ashbringer

Haha yeah, I think I know what you mean. I've been feeling that vibe for much of the game. I can't help feeling she's pushing the clueless player thing too far. Even the way she responds to people saying she's acting sneaky is weird. It's hard to say exactly why, but it just has that vibe. Yeah, I'm interested in hearing why you think TJ Shade is suspicious because I read him as Village. P.S. Sorry about the double post. I thought for sure I was editing my previous one but ended up doing a second post.

Yeah, Aman asked me the question about who a Mistborn should kill, but he never actually claimed he himself was Mistborn. Right, at this point, I think the Mistborn should go ahead and claim the kill so that we know what happened. Oh, this is interesting. Vapor, do you have more to say on this? What stuff do you think doesn't quite add up? But the info is useless to Elims at this point (the Mistborn is powerless now) and helpful to Village (to figure out exactly what happened). I'm kind of feeling the same way. Trying to decide whether Ash or Condensation is more suspicious. Things about Condensation have been bothering me the whole game, so I think I'll place my vote there. Condensation

Yeah, we'll need to wait for Aman to speak up on this. However, I'll admit that at the time he was asking me about who to kill, I told him that Turtle was the one I was most suspicious about. Others may have said this as well since Turtle was indeed under suspicion for awhile. Well, we already know about Devotary since they flipped. And I'm pretty sure AnonFeru is Villager as well. Okay, not sure if I missed where you talked about this earlier, or if this is the first time you are revealing this info. You reasoning against Ash is sound. I don't think I've seen posts towards EoD yet, so I'll go review them afterwards. Thanks for your read list. I agree there are a lot of Elim and Mild Elim candidates at this point. I would say TJ seems Villager to me. Aman I would give Mild Villager, though I do want to hear about what happened with the night kills. Hmmm, thanks for explaining. Though not sure I take this as good reasoning. I wouldn't think Reading would purposely give a lower number of Hemalurgists as false info to us if they were a Villager. If anything, he would just not talk about it. Your reads seem reasonable. How do you feel about Condensation and Elkanah? Both have been involved in the thread quite a bit and under suspicion at times. Okay, since I consider you Villager, I'll take your word on this for now. P.S. I was trying to finish and post this earlier, but then had to take care of other things. Posting this now and I'll continue with further comments in another post later.

Two Feruchemists claimed to me last night, Devotary and another I'll call AnonFeru. I'll first go through what info I got from them in their PMs, then later I'll go through recent posts and comment. Devotary Devotary was responding to my post about the vote manipulation to save Turtle. I had said that if a Village Feru had been responsible for saving Turtle, we needed to know that info and the reason why the Feru thought Turtle was a Villager. Devotary had planned to make a statement in the thread but was relaying the info to me in case they were killed, which unfortunately they were. He hadn't actually claimed that he was Hema as well. Devotary said they saved Turtle because she had a confirmed Hemu claim. They also mentioned Illwei supporting Turtle by suggesting that people voting on Turtle hadn't seen what she was putting in the Hema doc. Devotary also had suspicions towards Reading from D2 and was hoping to find an Elim there before considering killing a known Hema (Turtle). So Devotary had moved Experience's vote from Turtle to Reading. On D1, he had also tried to move Ventyl's vote to himself, but this was cancelled by AnonFeru's vote manipulation. AnonFeru AnonFeru told me that on D1 when the vote was Ventyl 4-4 Elkanah, they attempted to cancel Ventyl's vote on Elkanah. They weren't convinced by the reasoning to lynch Elkanah and preferred that the lynch be Ventyl. The host feedback said that the vote manipulation failed due to vote manipulation by another Feru. AnonFeru was convinced that this was done by an Elim Feru to save Elkanah or implicate him. They were also assuming that since we already had 5 Village Regular flips, there probably weren't 2 Village Ferus. This led to the thought that Turtle didn't look good since it appeared that an Elim Feru saved her. But since we now know the flips for both Devotary and Turtle, these guesses are moot.

I'm just waking up. I'll have some stuff to reveal. I had gotten a message from Devotary last night explaining his actions on votes. I also heard from another Feruchemist. I'll compile the two accounts and post later when I get a chance.

We already had good reason to suspect Turtle. At face value, the vote manipulation to save her just increases the suspicion. We'll be going in circles if we try to guess that a Villager Feruchemist was the one behind the vote manipulation. And even if that's the case, how do we know they have an accurate read on Turtle? If a Village Feruchemist did manipulate the votes, they will need to claim and give their reasoning for us to make a judgment, otherwise Turtle will be the likely vote again. The Feruchemist can wait until day starts to see what happens during the night first. But we'll need the claim to figure out how to handle Turtle.

While it's true that in actuality Elim shouldn't be indecisiveness since they know exactly who is a Villager, it's just that Elim often imitate being an indecisive Villager. They don't want to be held accountable for flipping a Villager. So yeah, it can be hard to read someone's alignment on indecisiveness alone, especially if they are newer. I guess you have to look at the reasoning they give for the indecisiveness and whether they've made other clearer choices. Ahhh, thanks for clarifying this. And I guess that's actually a more general strategy beyond just Forum Mafia. I see that votes are continuing to build up on Turtle. This would be a good lynch if it happens, but I do get the feeling that Elims have been hopping onto the wagon for Villager credit.

Thanks for posting this, Ash. Good to see where you stand. Actually this list is fairly close to my own. I think I'd swap Elk and Mist. I've recently come to the conclusion that Elk is probably Villager. His comment about the night kill on Gears got me thinking. Even if Elk was an Elim and agreed to the night kill on Gears for game reasons, he wouldn't have pointed out the cruelty of not giving Gears a chance to continue playing the game. In the nulls, I would put Turtle into Mild Elim or Elim. Reading into Very Mild Elim. Condensation maybe into Mild Elim. Oh, thank you for your list as well. I agree with you on Turtle. I'm not sure why you have Reading so high as Villager, though. I've recently thought he had least seems suspicious. Oh, I hope I can come back to this sometime and give a bit of an answer. I have some rough notes in a document that I've been compiling for my own purposes. I've been considering ways to better analyze people in a systematic way. I like how you put this. Good advice. Okay, I see a Turtle vote is picking up. I'm going to keep my vote on Reading as a possible 2nd wagon. I won't be around at EoD and so probably can't shift my vote, but just know that I'm okay with either Turtle or Reading as the lynch. I disagree with you, Reading. I don't think Shade is saying that he doesn't think people find his vote worth anything. He is saying that he wants to put his vote to use where it might count, like choosing one of the main wagons. And I agree with this. Sometimes there's not enough momentum on the person you think the most likely Elim, so you need to choose among the main wagons for the most likely Elim there. You wait another day for your highest Elim read. Your interpretation of this as being indecisive and enough to vote on Shade just adds one more mark against you in my eyes.