|TJ|

At this point, I'm convinced there were 3 Impersonators and 4 Smugglers in the game. little wilson, Lord Sil/Zillah and another one whom we shall call Mist? make up the Impersonators. Sart, Elkanah, Shard of Reading and another one whom we shall call x?. I'm ignoring Elkanah from this point onwards as he dies after this turn. Cycle 3 Before: Pyro (5): Elkanah, Arraenae, TGK, Coda, Emi Elkanah (14): wilson, Matrim, Kynedath, HH, Karnage, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, Xino, DeTess, Bugsy, Archivist, Mist, Brightness After: Pyro (5): Elkanah, Arraenae, TGK, Coda, Emi Elkanah (13): wilson, Matrim, Kynedath, HH, Karnage, Devotary, Pyro, Sart, Xino, DeTess, Bugsy, Archivist, Mist, Brightness Just a simple Smuggling of votes. Lord Sil/Zillah, little wilson, and Mist? did not use their action. Sart did not Smuggle either. Shard of Reading or x? used the action. Mostly x? Cycle 4 Before: Coda (2): DeTess, TJ ShadePyro (3): Silberfarben, The God King, Emi, HH (5): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath, PyroWilson (0): WilsonSart (4): Bugsy, Matrim, Experience, HH After: Coda (2): DeTess, TJ ShadePyro (4): Silberfarben, The God King, Emi, HHHH (5): Megasif, Sart, Bugsy, Kynedath, PyroWilson (0): WilsonSart (3): Bugsy, Matrim, Experience Just the one wilson impersonation in this cycle. Sart was role-blocked. Reading and x? were silent. Cycle 5 Before: Pyro (6): DeTess, Experience, Kynedath, Sart, TJ, Xino Sart (0): Wilson Xino (5): Bugsy, Matrim, Pyro, Reading, Silberfarben After: Pyro (5): DeTess, Experience, Kynedath, Sart, Silberfarben, TJ, Xino Sart (0): Wilson Xino (3): Bugsy, Matrim, Pyro, Reading wilson moved Lord Sil's vote from Xino to Pyro. Shard of Reading and x? Smuggled vote off Pyro. Sart took one off Xino. EDIT: Interesting thing to note is Mist? used their Impersonation only once - in Cycle 2. Looking at the votes, Mist did not vote in C1, C4 and C5, so Mist? could definitely be Mist. Don't know I'm more convinced that Zillah side of Lord Sil/Zillah is the Impersonator. They have not voted in any of the cycles (I believe) and used their actions in only C1 and C2. Lord Sil has been voting in these past cycles. Shard of Reading is confirmed elim Smuggler. There's no excuse for the Sart vote this cycle. Now for the mysterious case of x?. They used their action possibly in C2, C3 and C5. It's not Megasif (inactive in C2), it's not Archivist or BR (inactive in C5). The possible names I could think of is The God King and Experience. Experience's eagerness to lynch Reading makes me believe it's not him. It could also be Coda with Gossip/Smuggler double role or (though I doubt) Xino with Gambling Tycoon/Smuggler. Personally, I believe Xino is not Gambling Tycoon, and he is my prime Bleeder suspect. Him or Bugsy.

What an absolute clusterrust. This did not look like a scene of murder. Once the initial sense of danger died down, these people returned to their jovial ways. It looked like they were back in the ballroom of one of their keeps. People clamoring around food, lords getting drunk out of their minds and veiled faces pretending to be nice to each other. Just another typical day in the politics of the Houses. Except, it wasn't. That's probably their coping mechanism. Going back to what's known to them, back to familiar territory, no matter how rubbish the territory is. TJ couldn't afford to let his guard down. He didn't need a coping mechanism, as he didn't need to cope with it. So far, no one had paid attention to "just another random guard", even if he was a hazekiller. They knew he was beneath their station, and he took full advantage of it. He scanned the place maintaining a stoic expression. A couple of lords were jabbering about, spewing absolute nonsense no one was interested in. Apparently, there was a reward for anyone who opened their mouth. Idiots didn't realize they meant ratting out their fellow Loyalists. They just kept going on and on until someone actually threatened to have them killed. On the other side of the warehouse, occupying on of the farthest tables were an odd bunch. A awkward foreigner, an introverted teenager, and lord who did NOT look like he belonged here. Well, this should be interesting. He made sure he was inconspicuous and continued to observe them with interest.

Xino (2) - TJ, Matrim Sart (1) - Shard of Reading Silber (1) - DeTess Shard of Reading (1) - Experience There you go.

Cycle 2 Votes before manip: Fura (1): Elkanah Karnage (1): Straw Orlok (1): Pyro Pyro (1): Fura Straw (20): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino, DeTess, Coda Votes after manip: Fura (2): DeTess, Elkanah Karnage (1): Straw Orlok (1): Pyro Pyro (1): Coda, Fura Straw (16): Archivist, Arraenae, Brightness, Bugsy, Devotary, Emi, Experience, God King, Karnage, Kynedath, Matrim, Mist, Orlok, Reading, Sart, Striker, Wilson, Xino Again we have 2 votes completely moved. DeTess from Straw to Fura. Coda from Straw to Pyro. The thing is, wilson claimed not to have used her action this cycle. This means there's yet another Impersonator (other than the one found in C1). DeTess has already established that C1 Impersonator moves vote without voting themselves. Only 5 people did not vote in C2 - Dot, Hammond, Lord Sil, Zillah, and HH. 2 were inactive (Dot and Hammond), two were escorted, and the remaining one is our impersonator. Lord Sil and Zillah are the only ones who did not vote in both C1 and C2, so the elim Impersonator is one of them. Of course, if C1 Impersonator decided to vote this turn, none of this hold up, lol Now for the other Impersonator is among the voters of Straw. Why didn't the new Impersonator use their action in C1? They were probably role-blocked. The possible role-block victims of C1 who voted for Straw in C2 are Bugsy, Devotary, Kynedath and Mist. Each one of them have revealed their roles except Mist, who is probably Impersonator no. 2. Again. this fails if the Impersonator was not role-blocked in C1 and simply chose not to use their action. That leaves 3 votes that were Smuggled off Straw. 2 of these were probably elims. The third one, I do not know. It's should be Elkanah, but didn't he target Karnage in this cycle?

It still adds up. 15 awake + 2 escorted + 3 inactive + 10 dead = 30.

Who were the inactive players in C5? BR, Emi, and..?

Okay yeah, got it now. Wait that doesn't seem right. 10 people are dead as of now. 1+4+3+1+1 died in respective cycles. So there should be 20 people alive.

Wait I don't think I understand this. Two votes were clearly moved completely. That means there'd have to be 2 impersonators right? If Elkanah smuggled Araris' vote, it doesn't add up. The only thing I can think of is that Elkanah was role-blocked. I checked the activity of people and - C1, C2, C3 had 2 escorts. C4 and C5 had 3 escorts. This leads me to believe that there's a probability that @Megasif is one since they joined in C3. I don't know about their alignment, but DeTess said Pyro was ready to give up an inactive teammate? It could have been Hammond. I'll do Cycle 2 soon.

Alright people have been distracted by LG66, so let me try to bring some attention back here by some cycle-by-cycle analysis to figure out who's what. Cycle 1 Before vote manip: Fura (2): DeTess, StrawGod King (3): Archivist, Experience, ReadingKarnage (7): Araris, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker, BrightnessRadiantMatrim (1): HemalurgicPyromancer (1): God KingSart (4): Arraenae, Karnage, Matrim, XinoStraw(2): Orlok, wilson After vote manip: Fura (1): Straw God King (3): Archivist, Experience, Reading Karnage (6): Araris, Brightness, Emi, Fura, Pyromancer, Sart, Striker Matrim (1): Hemalurgic Pyromancer (1): God King Sart (4): DeTess, Karnage, Matrim, Xino Straw(1): Arraenae, Orlok, wilson DeTess' vote was moved off from Fura to Sart. Arraenae's vote was moved off from Sart to Straw. @little wilson, I assume you moved DeTess' vote? It actually doesn't matter. Since this shows 2 impersonators involved, there should be at least 2 cancelled votes. By looking at votes count after manip, we can see 3 votes cancelled. 2 from Straw and 1 from Karnage. We know wilson's vote on Straw was cancelled because of her impersonation. We know Arraenae and Orlok aren't impersonators, and that shows one of their votes was smuggled. The remaining cancelled vote is on Karnage. So the impersonator should have voted for him. That is, the impersonator is one among Araris, BrightnessRadiant, Emi, Fura, Pyromance, Sart and Striker. By process of elimination (Araris = Gossip, Fura = Gossip, Pyro = Stalker, Striker = Bodyguard/Bartender, Sart = Smuggler), we are left with BrightnessRadiant and Emi. BR's already suspicious behaviour makes her the no.1 candidate for elim Impersonator. Result: Role From To Subject Align Cycle Name Impersonator1 Fura Sart DeTess Elim C1 BR? Emi? Impersonator2 Sart Straw Arraenae Village C1 little wilson? Smuggler1 Straw Orlok? Arraenae? Elim? C1 ? Makes sense? EDIT: Actually, Emi role-claimed Stalker. So @BrightnessRadiant confirmed elim?

I agree, of course (that we should be worrying about elims). I don't know why focusing on the elims would be viewed as suspicious. We're bound to stumble onto some info about the kandra sooner or later.

Well, I did say it's the best I have at the moment. In my defense, they are the only two experienced players who have had some sort of opposing interaction. Though I do agree, hunches made based on experience would not be accurate.

How are you guys getting reads out of people when everyone is just yelling "Do not worry about the kandra!"? The only thing I can think of is @Ashbringer and his kandra analysis. They started with a solid kandra-could-impersonate statement, but then recanted it saying they didn't want else to worry, and then they recanted their recantation. I would say it's suspicious but I understand a new player's eagerness. Araris and @Magestar are likely to be on opposite teams seeing as they are the most experienced players. They could both be eliminators but I don't see them both being villagers. I know it's not an analysis based on "read", but it's the best I can come up with right now. In the spirit of maintaining the tie, Magestar.

xino is most definitely getting robbed

TJ watched the proceedings from the corner that was assigned to him. He had just returned after locking the door when one of the idiots had already gotten himself killed. If you're infiltrating an organization, why would you send in cowards? He sighed. Well that wasn't for him to wonder. As far as he was concerned, each and every one of these noble lords and ladies were driven purely by ambition. Ambition to rule, not to make Elendel a better place for people. First sign of trouble and they're done. All that ambition goes straight out of the window and they're only looking to save their own skin. Well that should give them something to think about. Cowards or not, they'll now think twice before trying something foolhardy. TJ shook these thoughts away. His job was to observe, and observe he shall. Manage to make yourself unnoticeable, and that could be your biggest ally. Make yourself inconsequential, and you'd be surprised at the amount of secrets that are placed on your lap by unsuspecting nobles. He wasn't exactly inconsequential though. He was, after all, posing as a Hazekiller. But it wouldn't be much of a stretch to call him that, since he had the abilities to back them. TJ was never the one to rely on metallic ability. It was addictive and made the user extremely reckless and compulsive. People could easily make a habit of over-relying on them and find themselves dead when they are deprived of it. TJ never used it unless he was in life-or-death situations. Instead, he focused on honing his combat abilities and observational skills which would prevent him from getting into life-or-death situations in the first place. Right now though, he wished he could just turn off his observational skills. The backbiting had started, the accusations hurling and the conspiring had begun. This is going to be a very long month. But he wasn't going to complain. He couldn't afford to. He was here to observe, and observe he shall.

Haha, Striker not-so EZ xD

Lmao, Striker is gonna have a hard time going through all of these when he comes back

C1 and C2 are pretty solid. There's no reason to target Fura is Devotary is elim. It's a waste of an action and I don't think any elim would do that as their very first move. Bussing so early in the game without a lynch makes no sense. @DeTess can you confirm C3 action? @Megasif can you confirm C4 action? Devotary, whom did you actually target in C4? If Devotary flips village, we'll have proof for the existence of elim Extortionist. C5 is common knowledge though it's nice to get confirmation.

It's your gut read, and you've got to believe in it, but I disagree. Fura wasn't lynched. He was bartender-killed by Striker, so bussing wouldn't come into play. Devotary is a Stalker as well, and I don't think elims would have two Stalkers. but anything is possible. Again, this is should a late lynch (if there even is one) I'd like to ask @Devotary of Spontaneity history of Stalking (or at least the last cycle). We might have no way to confirm them, but maybe we can infer something out of them.

Can we post game-related memes? If not, please do tell. I'll remove the post. Y'all right now ^

I mean, she was one of the few who suggested turning our focus back to elims. Maybe they thought once she's gone they could distract us by Bleeder hunting again. Pyro also vowed to have her killed if her elim-analysis turned out to be accurate. If I was Bleeder I'd definitely stop attacking randomly as it would be very easy to catch me in act with all those Stalkers around. I'd scan to search for Gambling Tycoons and then attack only when necessary (probably how Bugsy got attacked) Oh yeah, Pyro told he'll scan Kynedath last cycle.

9 totally at the beginning of the game. Also, I think Kynedath should be one of the final elim lynches (8th or 9th). If Pyro is to be believed (IF), elims who were more experienced than him were less active. Kynedath has definitely been active. All his Renowned searches seemed to be aimed at potential elims. Obviously we shouldn't believe everything (anything) Pyro says, and that's why Kyne is not completely elim-cleared, but I'd like to reserve lynching him for much later.

Straw - Renowned Fura - Gossip Pyro - Stalker So far, none of the elims have had double roles. We can be sure that there are at least 2 Smugglers (one is Reading) (as evident from 2 Smuggled votes off Pyro) and maybe 1 Impersonator (according to wilson someone impersonated in C2. Could be elim, could be another villager). But when I suggested it last cycle, Pyro blatantly told me how wrong I was. Was his reaction because of how close I was, or is there something wrong in my analysis? Anyways, that makes it 6. What else? Pyro told someone he knows role-blocked Sart. He could have told that to mask the existence of an elim Escort. I don't think they have Gambling Tycoons or Bartenders. It would be too OP. Maybe a Bodyguard and an Extortionist. Maybe if there are 9 elims, an extra Gossip (Coda).

I don't think he suspects me. He said in addition to my two suspects he adds his. EDIT: Ahh ninja'd by Kynedath

Well I'm glad we didn't mislynch them. I agree with wilson. We've got to go for more than 2 lynches every cycle. I suggest 1 Bleeder suspect and 2 elim suspects unless we have a clear Bleeder suspect. Shard of Reading and Brightness Radiant are my main elim suspects. As for Bleeder we'll have to see between Bugsy and xino. It could also be someone laying low like Coda. But for now I'll go with xino.

Do we know for sure that kandra cannot kill? I mean other than canonically. It's not given in the rules that they can't.