Frustration

The only metalborn abilities that will actually have a huge impact is from Allomancy: Bronze, steel, iron, nicrosil, Bendalloy, chromium on Radiants below oath 4. And to a lesser extent duralumin and maybe cadmium. And from Feruchemy: steel, zinc, gold, pewter, maybe chromium That's really not a lot, especially when Roshar is used to dealing with invested entities with wildly different powers. Additionally given that not even 1/50 people are metalborn. I don't think they will have that many. Assuming Scadrial has a population of around 20 million, now North alone is 15 mil, but they also have the most Allomancy, so I think it will balance out. And that roughly 1/60 of them is a misting/feeding, (though that number is likely lower) of some sort and given my numbers above counting only the guaranteed useful powers, and going by the fighting age population 18-30 roughly 15.8% of the population right now, but I'll round up to 20%. That leaves you with around only 20,833 metalborn of fighting age. And while that's a lot they will all lose against a Radiant of even 2nd oath, and each one that dies is irreplaceable. Meanwhile each radiant that dies will be replaced within a few days. Scadrial is advancing pretty slowly compared to earth. Harmony said they were supposed to have Radio decades ago, but it took until BoM, for them to get one, and it was in the hands of the Set, so it's possible Autonomy had to give it to them. They recently made fabrial pumps that will run automatically, along with automatic fabrial stabilizers. They have ships that can survive Highstorms if they have to. That is only partially true, but they've spent most of their weapons focus on recreating shardblades. Everything else has been progressing rapidly. With Shardblades solved they should be looking for more long ranged weapons, like the grandbows they made within the past decade. Trellium/Harmonium took the Set almost a decade, while Autonomy was active helping them along. If they were completely encased in it, probably, but they wouldn't be able to move that. That's not how identity works. Identity is the spiritual tag that says 'this belongs to this person' if you are really into biology you can think of Identity as an antigen. When you only have to shift it a dozen or so feet through a portal it's not that hard. Especially when Stonewards can make it move itself. According to Mraize it's a simple Connection issue(RoW 188). A Bondsmith could allow them to leave as easily as Ishar drew the light from Windrunners into the ground. Considering how many spren came immediately after learning the truth I think we can easily expect tens of full Radiants of every order. Additionally at the recreance nearly 300 individuals from just 2 orders were all 4th oath or higher. 4th isn't that rare. The centuries before didn't have unchained Bondsmiths. It would reveal troop placement, and numbers. As well as find Kandra easily. It might not be an instant win, but you might as well have gps trackers on all of Scadrials agents.

So Fortune is a form of future sight, so it would probably be closer to gut instinct than luck.

TLM is about 10 years after SA 5. Any progress I give Roshar is the reasonable progress they could make in that time.

What's Fabrials then?

Anti-light is orders of magnitude more powerful. That's why you open portals from where it currently is and move it directly. And Scadrians aren't that stealthy, there are three orders that can peer directly in the CR and find them by their souls.

It's just an acronym for the Cognitive Realm. (Don't worry I was confused to when I first heard about it.) The large ones are pretty big, easily cruise ship sized, given the one the Set had in BoM. They can be moved. Given that Bondsmiths are required to make them I don't think Stormlight is an issue. I thought you said incendiary rounds for a second, and I cannot express how funny I found that. The post RoW discussion had several pages about incendiary rounds. Aluminum machine guns might actually be a problem for a few orders of knights. Especially those without means to create cover or get out of range like Edgedanncers or Dustringers. They actually pose a decent threat to Bondsmiths with those. Well there's really only one way now that Hemalurgy can't compound without a hack and modern souls reject that number of spikes. And that's the bands. So that's not entirely true. There are some hard limits to compounding, they likely won't be able to run at more than 200 mph, and even if they did it would take so long to get enough steel to do that that it won't be worth it.

There is an option button at the bottom next to Quote and Edit. Click on that and a hide button comes up.

While that is true there is a lot more to powered flight than simply wanting it. Even if Scadrial day one of conflict managed to build a Wright Brothers style plane they would be years away from combat or transport ready craft. All it really would be useful for is scouting, and it would easily be taken out by the far faster and more maneuverable Radiants. Even if they had WW1 planes I doubt they could break Rosharan air superiority. So that's not entirely true as anti-lights are far more destructive than Harmonium/Trellium. Now this is a fair point. Scadrian ships are better than their Rosharan counterparts. Now there are some ways Roshar can take out ocean-going vessels, but their own ships will never be able to challenge Scadrian ones in open combat. That is true, but without a way to make perpendicularities Scadrial is going to struggle getting to those cities. Not really. In the past 6 years on each world, not counting the stuff they were given Scadrial has made large anti-aircraft guns. Roshar made airships, water attractors, painrails, vaccines, heating fabrials, smoke collectors, fabrial pumps, alerters etc. Well two points One is that while some cities do depend on soulcasters, for some of their food they are far from the point that without them they would starve. Second is that radiant soulcasters are not bound the same way traditional ones are, so they can make more materials, and any material they desire. If scadrian forces run low on food or aluminum they have to spend the time to grow food, or to mine and process the boxite, and then they have to transport it to their army. Rosharans simply have a Lightweaver or Elsecaller spend an hour or so making it and they're good for the next month. Perhaps not in cities but of the big four Cosmere worlds Scadrial has the lowest population, while Roshar has the second highest and is close to first. They do have radio now, which is a huge step up for them, but they still have some issues. The first is that orders given on Scadrial would take too long to reach Roshar. The second is that(if Roshar learns enough) it could be possible for Lightweavers and Truthwatchers to receive the transmission. The third is that Roshar has FTL communication, so they can communicate much faster and at greater distances than Scadrial can. Duralumin maybe, but otherwise no, as they effectively have the as much range as they are willing to spend Stormlight for. And with reverse lashings they can divert incoming attacks. Division should be the same as fire to them, and shardblades will kill them all the same. I think you're right on this one, that Scadrial will have more allies when the actual battle comes, however I think that would be both too speculative and beyond the initial premise to be easily debated here, though once we get confirmed interplanetary allies that would be an interesting twist to the discussion. Would anyone else be interested in that? Brandon described it as Super-cesium. When Cesium reacts with water it releases 276 j/m if I remember correctly. So multiply that by 1.5-2 and we should be pretty close. Hey don't worry about it. I'd prefer to have a long post than none at all There aren't any railways in the CR, and airships are too big to fit in the perpendicularities. meanwhile Oathgates, and Bondsmith/Elsecaller portals can bypass the CR entirely.

Yes they have. I don't know if it has materialized yet but it has been mentioned.

No, anti-tones can push light out of spheres, but anti-light doesn't resist being mixed.

You have to mention what series is being spoiled. Abd that wouldn't work SA 5 takes place before AoL.

Nope, unfortunately not.

When has any online argument ended with "oh wait, you were right,"?

But there was never any narrative weight to "let's find out how bands work" or "what does the south scadrian government work?"

Any military technology has civilian applications.

Hey, that sounds just like what I said.

I haven't been able to catch up with Competitive yet, I've been busy with NaNoWriMo, I'll try and look into it soon. @Ookla the Craw I've looked into it, I mostly agree

There is virtually no investiture in the Physical realm. Brandon has made it very clear that Shards only have so much power, now it's 1/16 of all the investiture in the Cosmere, which is a non-insignificant amount. But it is limited.

You are by saying that anyone who doesn't accept the shards is an idiot. 1. I know of no such WoB, could you please provide it? 2. Even if that is true that means that there is a limit to a shards power and they are not omnipotent.

They do lack the power They don't even have infinite investiture how are they omnipotent? Yes, but if you believe only an Abrahamic God can be a God, then you can reject all of the shards, and Adonalsium as Gods.

Well I for one would not call a single being in the Cosmere a God, excepting the God Beyond, though whether he would classify as 'in' the Cosmere is up for debate. Um, no they aren't. There are lots of things Shards can't do. Things we know they can't do. And it's not just that they won't allow themselves to do it, they just do not have the power to do so. I can name multiple shards that have died. Ambition, Devotion, Dominion, Honor etc. And let's not forget Adonalsium. Additionally the shards cannot be omnipotent because they only have so much power

Yeah it's under the new book spoiler policy here:

How Kelsier spoke to Sazed, what Adonalsium was, how Ruin and Presentation had been separated, who this Hoid fellow was, what the last two metals were etc.

Agreed

@Thaidakar the Ghostblood TLM has to be kept in the spoiler forum. Even in spoiler boxes it's not allowed.