Mailliw73
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Everything posted by Mailliw73
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Uh. Yeah idk why I got Bip and Quinn confused... XD Me? I mean I know I’m not persuading you or Illwei to move anywhere but I do ask the others to consider the potential of Devo and TJ votes.
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Well, I guess killing Quinn kills the thread... Thanks elims for ending the discussion. I don't know that I myself have much to add right now, I've been busy but am trying to expand my information and contacts again.
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Glad to hear it! You have Gears and QUinn on the same line for some reason on there, just so you know.
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She said it was her first time playing, and asked how long I've played. And that's all she said. I've been doing very well! How are you?
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I mean, I did. It was a whole 3 messages. HAEL! Welcome! Good to see you!
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If you're calling me out about claims, the answer is no. These two stonewalled me, for good reason, we know now. I think TJ and Devo are our best bets (or Illwei, but I'm not going there again. I end up just spiraling...)
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Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim Stick (1): XP Illwei (1): Maill Quinn (1): Dannex Pyro (1): Bard Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ Day 2: StrikerEZ (9): Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_ The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade Ashbringer (1): Young Bard The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer Mailliw73 (1): Experience Day 3: Quintessential (5): Araris Valerian, Burnt Spaghetti, Devotary of Spontaneity, Elandera, Mailliw73, STINK Mailliw73 (4): Biplet, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme Dannex (2): Fifth Scholar, Illwei The Windrunner Supreme (1): TJ Shade There are increasingly less options for elims to be on the two major trains from the first two days. Ash, TJ, and Devo are the likely options form D1, I think. and I'd expect the Pyro exe to have one too, which TJ and Devo show up on again. D3 is interesting because it was so close. This time TJ ends up nowhere relevant which is of note, Ash doesn't vote, and Devo is on the winning (or losing) exe again... I think I'm going with Devotary for now.
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Not I. How did you know? Wow. So violent... I know you’ve mentioned it before but I can’t actually remember and I don’t know where it was but why am I the most noted? Like you admitted, you ended up even soothing a vote off me last day.
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Thanks, I appreciate the summary! I don’t understand when I didn’t vote for Illwei... D2, I already explained that I voted for Striker and then was debating moving back to Illwei, but since Tani was going to coinshot her, I didn’t see the point. I think that’s the piece people are missing that maybe I haven’t made clear. I thought that Illwei was basically dead already by halfway through D2 because we had a mistborn with steel that I saw no reason to doubt. So why would I then push an exe when I knew she was going to be dead? Obviously things went sideways but that was my thinking at the time.
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So I never read that whole ISO( like it seems most didn’t) because it’s incredibly long. Would you mind summarizing or mentioning a couple of points of why you suspect me? Pointing to the ISO over again doesn’t really help. @Tani @The Windrunner Supreme I would still be curious to hear your reasons as I haven’t seen any. I say that above and then I go and agree with you, Mat. but I do agree. My reasoning for Quinn was i think I still have plenty to offer. So self-preservation, yeah. I still wish that hadn’t been the option, since I said I wasn’t going to move on the Fallion’s Four and Illwei. I don’t see the reasoning behind Dannex so I wouldn’t have wanted that. And could someone summarize the suspicions on Ash? I was too busy yesterday with RL things and the Fallion’s Four that I didn’t catch that suspicion. But I would be interested in Stink’s reasoning. Seems like for Elandera, Devo, and Burnt it came down to a slight difference in their read of me and of Quinn or that they felt Quinn would be more definitive. I think this has further confirmed the idea to me that none of the Four are evil and we just got caught up in our own mistakes. I’m not going to be on much today, sorry. But assuming I survive, I’ll try to share more tomorrow and reevaluate yet again. It’s not going to be helpful to Seek me and to Coinshot me, so I think you’ve gotta pick one or the other. I would suggest TWS or TUO or Daisy for the coinshot as well since that’s likely to help us root out any inactive elims. For the Seeker, I’d suggest TJ or Mat or Devo since they seem to be prominent enough and have connections to various people that it would be helpful to know without them dying. Tani would be good for village peace of mind but I don’t think it’s worth it.
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Quinn. Sorry, but I can’t give myself up yet I have too much to give.
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@Quintessential @Biplet @Matrim's Dice @The Windrunner Supreme @Tani I really am not seeing reasoning for my vote here... Quinn says “my openness and that one PM”. Mat says he agrees with Quinn (even though he wasn’t around for those conversations..?) Tani says I’m scary and she follows Quinn Windrunner says other people suspect me Biplet says they can gain info and she agrees with some of the above. So looks like there’s no real reasons here... Any of you feel inclined to change your minds in the next 7.5 hours?
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This is most likely my last substantial post of the turn since I've got some homework that needs to get done and then we have plans tonight and then I'll be sleeping till rollover. Honestly, I think Stick has a point. The more I think about this, the more it feels like a bunch of villagers getting together and then falling apart from miscommunications. I think I've gotten frustrated with the whole scenario and I'm kinda sensing the same from Quinn. Stick has kinda thrown up her hands from what I can tell. So I'm going to back out of this whole thing for now. Illwei. There you go, first greened vote from me. I don't trust myself to accurately evaluate the complications between Illwei, Quinn, Tani, Stick, and I, so I'm going to back off any suspicions there for now. I'll let a Seeker scan Illwei before I try to go there again... If I had to pick one of the four in the PM I'd suspect, it'd be Quinn then Tani then Stick. But like I said, I'm not going to move on anything there for a little while (assuming I don't just die here, which isn't looking likely) because I feel like it very well could be just villagers messing up. Bolded the things I want to address. Sounds like you don't have any real reason to suspect me either though from that first line, so I don't understand how I went from you writing that post and wanting to put me as village to then becoming your number one suspicion. I think I'm just missing something there. The strange exchange you mention is because that was the moment I suspected you most. I didn't know how to respond, except that I genuinely did find it interesting (and my vote analysis is only based on final votes, not progression) but I also felt like you were trying to sow more distrust, so I agreed with you to avoid you coming after me. Again, my openness is just a style thing. I play pretty open, even if I lie about my role or something, I'm usually pretty honest about everything else. I don't get how being open is anything suspicious, I've always been a proponent of the idea that more information helps the village more than the elims, so I do my part to encourage and help with that. Also, why my flip is tied to five of your other reads, I don't get... I just have PMs with a lot of people. Also, just saw the recent message about me claiming to you on D1 and then falseclaiming after that. I claimed to almsot everyone that I PMd on D1. That's kinda a thing for me and I typically claim at least 3 different things. I do it to gauge reactions. But I pick which ones I'm willing to real claim to and which ones I'm not and that's how I decide. It's not that thought out, honestly. So all your elim reads are everyone involved in the Fallion's Four Illwei Kill and then Ash? Just want to note, this is the second or third time that you've said this and I still don't understand why. I'm scary because people suspect me? Like what makes me scary? All I've seen from you is just following Quinn's reads and beign against me because of this "scariness". @Matrim's Dice I also thought it was weird that you referenced Quinn's post and then agreed with the entire first half... but looks like you've already realized that while I was typing this. Anyways, final thoughts about the day (except maybe a couple brief posts will come later?): Quinn, Tani, Stick, and Illwei are people I'm not going to go after anymore because I'm getting too invested in this idea and it's become frustrating, I think there's a chance we're all village, and I don't trust myself to do an objective analysis. There's clearly a difference in how I play versus how a lot of others do (which has always been the case), I think it's noteworthy that not a player I've played with before has a vote on me, but only players who haven't interacted with me before. Generational difference? Just a playstyle difference that hasn't been around or gotten used to yet? Idk, but there's something that's causing a problem. This took way too long... I honestly don't even want to vote, but I don't want to die. I'll see if there's another option later if I get a chance. Farewell if I die, O7 ( I liked that salute, Bip. )
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Y’known what, you’re right. I apologize for that, I misremembered that because of the context. Stick mentioned that it would suck for our plan if Illwei survived the kill and in response to that, Quinn said that there was an elim directing the group and she’d look at me. I took that to mean that if Illwei survived, then she’d think that. Not that she already thought there was an elim. But she’ll have to clarify what she meant but now I see why you interpreted it that way. I agreed to it in the way I understood it. That’s fair. Like i said, just a gut reaction and a general warning to people that elims will do whatever. (Especially the chaotic players in this bunch).
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Quinn, it’s mostly just the phrasing for me in absolutes. Elims will do XYZ or won’t do XYZ instead of something like you’ve seen it more often with one team. Idk it’s not that big of a deal I just have a gut reaction against those kinds of phrasing because I’ve specifically used that as an elim to do things that “elims won’t do”.
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If I’m thinking of the same PM you are, then I don’t know if you’re intentionally misrepresenting what Quinn and I said or if it’s unintentional. Quinn said that if Illwei was a villager she’d begin to suspect that there was an elim in the PM group. I agreed and said that she’d be the first one I looked at and she said the opposite. That’s not the same thing as Quinn telling you that I’m an elim, you believing her, and claiming in the thread.
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Quinn told you there was an elim (me I’m assuming) and you just believed her? And you’re worried that I’m pocketing you? On a different note, I’ll come back to the mountains that were posted this morning a bit later, but Quinn, obviously you can make assumptions and you kinda have to in this game. But saying things like “elims never do ____” or “elims will ____” in a group like this is a faulty assumption already. There’s no single way elims will act in a given scenario because each plays a different way and knowing that the assumption will be there allows them to change what they will do. I have definitely seen elims almost entirely join a train on a villager with maybe only one member of the team not joining. I’ve seen elims spread out, I’ve seen about every voting pattern there could be. I don’t think there’s a way to predict it and in stating that there is, you give the elims free rein to do the opposite and not be suspected.
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Oh okay I think I’m getting it, sorry for the confusion. So it was treated as a joke the whole time until Tani told Illwei at which point she realized you weren’t actually joking. Any of you three feel free to correct me if I’m wrong. I just didn’t know there was this exchange between Quinn and Illwei and got all twisted up.
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It’s just surprising to me that you told her and then you came to us and said something along the lines of “guys, Illwei knows someone is targeting her for death. Did any of you tell people about this?” That was the thing that caused all the distrust and blew everything up, so I just don’t see why you did that. Even if it came out that’s fine but it was weird that you asked who did it when it was you the whole time. Tani, you told her you were the coinshot friend but was that after or before the night got extended?
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Wait, this happened? This whole time you acted confused about how Illwei knew that someone was targeting her and so I thought we figured out it was Tani that told her. You did?? O.o
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You know what, I'm just going to go for it. Illwei. Explained above in the long post if you want more reasoning. Also, at this point, it's also just partially for my own peace of mind. At the same time, I wouldn't be opposed to a Quinn exe because that would also give me some peace of mind and give me more of a read on Illwei. Sorry Quinn.
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Okay, I put this in my long post, but I get that some people aren't going to read it. Quinn and I were discussing our various suspicions on Illwei and Striker during D2. Striker already had votes on him, including mine and maybe Quinn's, I'm not sure. I said that I didn't know if I wanted to vote for Striker or Illwei and Quinn brought up the idea of exeing one and suggesting to Tani to kill the other and she proposed Illwei for the kill since Striker already had a train going. I brought up that idea in the group PM and Tani and Stick agreed that they also suspected those two enough and would kill Illwei. They then moved their votes at the end of the cycle after it was clear that Striker was getting exed. This wasn't an elaborate manipulation of the thread or bribing to gain votes or anything like that. Also, Ash, why in the world would we four be an elim team?? That makes no sense.
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Well, I am curious to see what you came up with. XP and I had a brief conversation that I've related before. He decided not to claim to be, said he was suspicious of me, then a day or two later said those suspicions on me were all but gone and he was not sure about Quinn and Illwei now. Pyro and I had mostly a debate conversation about the significance of Tineye roles to the elims and how much they would want to kill one versus a Lurcher or Coinshot or Seeker. Bard and I didn't have much, but I'll reference that one again later. PM safety, bah! It's how we coordinate as a village. Elims already have their whole teams roles, while each individual villager knows only their role, so you've gotta work together and claim. I'll make this clearer hopefully because there's a lot of questions about this. I started a group PM with Tani, Stick, and Quinn. I had already claimed my role to all of them (which, no, I'm not claiming here. ) , Tani had already claimed Mistborn to Quinn and I and told us she had Steel and asked who she should kill. I made the group because at the time, they were three of my highest village reads and I had already claimed, so I wanted to start to bounce ideas and suspicions off of stuff in a group. I also like to gauge reactions in groups and I'm always in PMs anyways. Tani decided to claim in that group, which I didn't expect, and so then Quinn and Stick also did. Quinn and I, in our private PM, discussed the day's lynch as well and I mentioned how I wasn't sure about sticking to my current vote on Striker of if I wanted to switch back to Illwei because I was okay seeing either's flip. Quinn brought up that we could have Tani kill one and exe the other and there was already a train on Striker, so we could just stick to that. We brought that up in the group and Stick and Tani agreed. Later on, when the night was extended, Stick and I were informed that Tani and Quinn had privately discussed their paranoia concerning me and especially on pointing them to Illwei. Like Quinn said, Tani took this much further and switched the kill to me, but then the night was extended and she ended up sharing that with me and then decided not to kill me or Illwei and didn't know what to do, then I proposed Pyro and XP, Stick mentioned a mild village read on Pyro but supported XP. Tani agreed to XP and that's where the kill was. I have no idea what Mat's connection to that is. Why does there have to be one elim? It was a group of 4 out of 28 players (26 living ones at the time it was made). I don't know why there would have to be one evil in there... I had claims from each of the people in the group PM before I made it and I had already claimed to them. So there was already claims, the group just consolidated discussion. I mean, I don't think that's a necessary logical case. If I was evil what reason would I have for wanting Illwei dead on D1?? I've started to realize that I've tunneled on Illwei a bit and that confirmation bias has been building on that. See more below. Mat also suggested XP? What reasoning was there for that, Mat? Hard disagree, obviously. I still think killing Illwei could've given us good info, but too late now. Honestly, there's no way I'm going to read all that about my posts... But about you and suspicions, I think it is the D1 reasons and then I saw your vote placements and found them suspicious, but more recently I have realized that I definitely have been kinda going in circles about you and because I've had this feeling about you, I've been finding reasons that keep building that suspicion in a confirmation bias loop. I've mentioned that a bit in some PMs and have partially been intentionally harder on you in the thread to gauge reactions (yours and those willing to agree). I genuinely still feel that you are suspicious and that your actions don't make sense to me, but I have been emphasizing it more than I believe it. I think at some point, I kinda feel like you have to stick hard to suspicions even if you don't have the most solid reasons or otherwise it's just this wishy washiness that accomplishes nothing. Also, I have no problem with you dying. I did vote you D1, and everyone else just bailed on that. D2 I would've probably voted on you, but then we had coordinated Tani killing you, so I felt fine moving to Striker. I also was a fair force behind that kill attempt attempt. (yes that double attempt is intentional) So overall, I do suspect you, top three for sure, but I make it sound more intense than it is, and I'm more than fine with seeing how your flip would go to point us in a good direction. Bard wasn't super active in my PM. He claimed Thug to me but that's it for real content. He told me he trusted FIfth, but that's the only other significant thing. I think timezones got in the way of his PM activity. Bard had no idea about Tani being a mistborn unless Tani told him near the end. Uh, good question. I'm not sure why I put him there... I think your reasoning is right, but I'm not sure what i was thinking XD Uh okay... Any reasons? Okay we didn't plan this exe in advance... This was after my vote was already on Striker, I think Quinn's also was, there were at least 4 votes already on Striker. We just decided that together, we suspected Striker enough that we wanted to exe him. Everyone's opinions obviously matter and it was only our 4 votes that were on him that were coordinated, the other 5 votes were people who felt he was also suspicious. Stick and Tani(if I remember right) moved their votes way at the end of teh cycle, so there were plenty of others on that train. Basically us "planning" this exe was us talking about suspicions, agreeing that we found Striker suspicious and voting him. This wasn't us planning in advance and pushing the thread any way... Well that's a lot of stuff. Idk, but there you go.
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i wanted to get an updated version of this out while I'm thinking over what happened this morning. This is like Bard's but updated with new deaths. I'm also going to take my reads out of it, sinc apparently XP and Pyro were village... Here is D1's Vote count (prior to manipulation) with confirmed alignments marked and my reads. Reading (4): Araris, Fifth, Illwei, Books Striker (2): Pyro, Matrim Stick (1): XP Illwei (1): Maill Quinn (1): Dannex Pyro (1): Bard Books (8): Gears, Quinn, Ventyl, Stick, Striker, Ash, Devotary, TJ ^These were my thoughts yesterday when evaluating. Clearly Pyro and XP were wrong suspicions, but even then, I can't shake Illwei completely. I'll leave off on her for the sake of this post at least though. Like Mat, I think at least one of (Ash, Devo, TJ) are likely to be evil from that Books exe. I'm not sure that Dannex, Mat, Araris really have much from this day's vote that actually makes me suspect them, especially the more that we see the people not on the two main exe candidates flip village. Day 2: StrikerEZ (9): _Stick_, Biplet, Fifth Scholar, Mailliw73, Matrim's Dice, Quintessential, Tani, The Windrunner Supreme, The Young Pyromancer Matrim's Dice, The Windrunner Supreme, Mailliw73, Quintessential, Fifth Scholar, Tani, Biplet, The Young Pyromancer, _Stick_ The Young Pyromancer (5): Araris Valerian, Devotary of Spontaneity, Illwei, StrikerEZ, TJ Shade Ashbringer (1): Young Bard The Unknown Order (1): Ashbringer Mailliw73 (1): Experience I think I have to reevaluate my thoughts entirely on the Striker train. I may have blinded myself by putting reads on there, because Quinn and Tani, along with Mat, end up in the crucial spot there for clinching that exe. Wait, I realized as typing this that the order of the votes that I copied is different from what Mat has... Storms, have I been using the wrong order? I added Mat's order in the second line. If Mat's order is correct, then Quinn, Fifth, Tani, and Bip would be in the crucial spot, with Stick being of note. Huh. That changes things to have it in this order. Tani revealing herself in thread as mistborn doesn't seem like an elim ploy, but maybe that's the point? Idk, not willing to commit to that yet. I'd put Quinn higher on the suspicion list than Tani. Bip and Fifth showing up in an interesting spot is new though... Taking my final takeaways from yesterday, I would say that I would take Araris, Dannex, Windrunner, and Mat off the list of interesting spots, adding Quinn and Fifth and Bip there instead. New suspicions order just from this: Illwei, Devo, Quinn, Ash, Fifth, TJ, Bip. With Tani maybe after them. I'll post more later with reactions to this thread so far, but wanted to get this up so I could think on it before I do that.
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Well uh what the storms? @Wyrmhero Good to see you again, man. But uh I don’t even know where to start and I’m busy this afternoon. I’ll have plenty of time this evening to relook at everything and figure out what cream(tried to spell crem but autocorrect did that and ah well) hit the fan.
