Mailliw73

So, anyone else have thoughts? I feel like we’re letting the elims take this one as they sit back. i can’t reasonably see an e!archer world when striker was up for the exe. Orlok has conveniently jumped on trains a couple times. I feel like there are decent reasons for almost anyone, but no one’s really sharing.

Sorry about that, didn’t mean to make you feel that you need to push yourself to be here. Take care of yourself for sure!

Um, did you read my longer post? Also, what in the world is that acronym?

They’re all dead. kinda being facetious, but it’s true. Edit: Did Illwei and Kas die or something? This is the quietest I've seen this game.

I'm rethinking now because of the notes below... But you're either a villager or an elim frustrated with the lack of accurate analysis that the village is doing and it feels like too easy of a win. That's just how your posts read to me. You're putting too much effort into explicitly having others share contrasting views, and idk, that's just how it's coming across. So I don't know how much the rest of this will make sense, but here's some notes on vote analysis and then Striker interactions analysis from D1: 7 Players left: Kas, Ash, Archer, Illwei, Orlok, TUA, Maill People on the same votes: Kas-Illwei: 4 (therefore, all the connections with Kas below apply to Illwei as well) Kas-Ash: 3 Kas-Illwei-Ash: 3 Kas-Orlok: 2 Kas-Archer: 2 On Final Exe Target: Kas (4), Illwei (4), Ash (3), Me (2), Orlok (2), Archer (2), TUA (0) Striker absolutely was bussed unless there's a TUA/Maill/Archer team. There has to be elims on every train, not enough options otherwise Ash is orange (sus) and Archer Blue (villagery) because of what I'm getting from D1 Striker interactions. Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok Ash (2): Experience, Stricker Illwei (1): The Unknown Aon JNV (1): Maillwi Experience (1): Thaidakar the Ghostblood Archer(1): JNV D2 Thaidakar (5): Kasimir, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei Ash (2): JNV, Archer D3 JNV (5): Kasimir, Archer, Experience, Maillwi, Illwei Unknown Aon (1): JNV Maillw(1): Ash Aman (1): Aman Illwei(1): Bort D4 Experience (6): Kasimir, Archer, Ash, Maillwi, Illwei, Orlok Illwei (2): Unknown Aon, Bort Archer(1): Experience Notable Striker interactions on C1: Aman pings Striker Striker posts: -Kas, mixed feelings, likes thoughts, but be wary -TUA seemed skittish, suspected -Archer: likes later points, but thinks first post is us and is Archer trying to recover -Ash: Agreeable, but confused why Ash defending Archer -Illwei: good points, but basically a non-comment Aman explains why he suspects Striker Striker defends self and votes Archer Aman responds to his defense Mat agrees with Aman’s take, votes Striker Striker reemphasizes his suspicions of Archer and Ash Archer says vote is on TUA, Striker, or JNV Illwei doesn’t know how to see Striker’s post as villagers Ash maybe votes Striker? Mat says he ties Ash and Striker as e/e together Devo also mentions Striker and Ash together as two suspicions Mat again says that e!Striker->e!Ash Striker makes his last defense and pushes for counter on Archer Striker says he might move vote to Ash for self-pres Orlok says he’ll vote on Archer or Striker since he feels those are the only options TL;DR: So what I'm getting from all this is that I think Ash must be our vote today, and I wish he had been before. He jumps on three of the trains, but is also cautious to be not always on that train. Striker and he had weird interactions and multiple NKed people mentioned thinking that e!Striker->E!Ash. This is probably the most analysis you'll get from me this game, but I'm going with a guess of elims being Striker, Ash, TUA, and then maybe Kas/Orlok?

Don’t have much time, just want to say again that Illwei resonates so villagery to me that I can’t understand the suspicion on her.

Maybe we mean different things by “openwolfing” but I take it to mean being extremely open about being an elim. I have no idea how that post could possibly convey me confessing to being an elim. I’ll grant that the tone is weird but that’s because I had just a couple seconds and wanted to get my thoughts out before I forgot. I agree. There’ve only been minimal posts and then one huge one refuting everything said about them. I feel like that’s a pretty elim mentality, making a defense against every post someone makes with suspicions on you. There’s usually more of a mentality there to explain why all your decisions are rational since you’re more aware of it as an elim.

Woah both Exp’s post and TUA’s long post read super weird to me. Anyone else? Archer’s posts I’m on board with.

(4) JNV: Kasimir, Amanuensis, Experience, Maill (2) Illwei: Amanuensis, Bort, (2) The Unknown Aon: Illwei, JNV, (2) Mailliw: Amanuensis, Ashbringer I’m on mobile a lot and in response to your comments about my activity, Aman, it’s because I’m mostly just able to catch up with the thread in brief bursts throughout the day between classes or homework or whatnot but I don’t have much to add in those times. Were there PMs in this game, I’d be much more active there since there’s less effort to be put in. I think your thoughts on Illwei have been addressed if I’m reading it right, but I’ll add that I think they were getting kinda tunnely. I’ll admit to not having played a lot of games with Illwei, and the main one I did, we were evil together, but the last day has been giving me village vibes. Having you and Kas in null reads is a result of me innately wanting you to be village and counteracting that impulse intentionally. Though at this point, I’m pretty confident in Kas being village. I want you to be but I have this niggling doubt at the back of my mind that you’re running us all in the wrong directions. I think Ash gives us a lot of information as a flip, but I'm not particularly committed to that, and JNV was my first suspicion so I’ll vote him instead. If there’s potential for an Ash exe, I’d go back there as well.

So I don’t have much time as I’m getting ready for work and may or may not be able to get on briefly again before cycle is up. @Ashbringer I think Devo’s kill may have been motivated by the reason you pointed out: that you were on their top suspicions list. The fact that both Mat and Devo were suspicious of you gives me more reason to think that your flip would provide us the most information even if I’m not completely sold on you being elim. I also think Devo was starting to build village cred, I know at least Aman and I both mentioned how Devo is hard to read but we were really thinking they were village.

Plenty of people have played with Devo more than I have but I’ve played a few. I have a hard time reading them but like Kas said, they’re famous for that.

Wait, like he wanted to extreme distance in the thread? lol

I've never had anyone tell me they think I'm Steel, so that's interesting haha. And I thought I might be forgetting someone on my list, but I thought I went back and checked. Must've missed TUA. Honestly I know like nothing about them, so I'd put them at null. I didn't realize how much I rely on PMs (though I obviously should've noticed this) to get a vibe check on people. Only reading through the thread a few times a day doesn't give me a ton to go off of. Without dedicating a lot more time that I don't have, I'm only doing final vote analysis, which isn't giving me much to go off in just two days. Orlok would be putting in more effort as an elim, I feel like. Your reasoning for Ash gives me more reason to suspect him. I feel like we need an Archer or Ash flip, even if I kinda want to pursue my gut read on Exp. I think Archer and Ash are the two players alive who have the most frictional moments with other players and are the highest info flips we can get at this point. So I'd push for one of those exes today.

Interesting. Curious why Bort, TUA, and I are in the bottom five, but JNV and Experience are in the top. Any reasons for those 2 specifically being at the top? I'm still working through why I think what I do, and my time is more limited on this game than it's been in the past, but here's where I'd put it if I had to. Good: Maill, Bort, Orlok, Archer Null: Aman, Kas, Illwei Elim: JNV, Experience, Ash?

Wait what? I totally thought I had thrown a vote on Exp when I made that post about not being around much for the rest of the cycle. But I just checked and I guess I didn’t. Sorry, guys, I don’t think I’ve ever done that before.

This would lead me to think that those voting on other targets may be our more likely elims. Exp in particular since they are the only second vote on someone and it sounded like Ash had a real chance at getting exed.

Fair enough, though it appears your worries were unfounded. I'm wondering so that we can determine more if elims were likely to be bussing or if they would be attaching themselves to other potential targets to save Striker. If it only looked like maybe 3 people would be voting on him, then I think they're less likely to bus and more likely to hop on a secondary train that people who gave their 3 options might be on.

I'm going to get this in now, since today is going to be busy and I'm not sure I'll be on much once the hour is up until the last half hour of the cycle. Stricker (8): Kasimir, Matrim's dice, Devotary, Ash, Amanuensis, Illwei, Bort, Orlok We know Mat is good, obviously. Devo's logic rang true to me even last cycle as something minor, but something they specifically would pick up on. Bort, as Aman mentioned, wasn't on near the end of the cycle and I feel like that'd be early for a bus. I want to read Kas and Aman as good, but I don't know how much of that is just the excitement of playing with them again. Orlok's tables show up poorly on mobile, so I've barely looked at them. So I'm putting those three as null for now. That leaves Ash and Illwei. Illwei rings more village to me as well, so if I had to pick one of the voters on Striker right now, it'd be Ash. I am still really looking at Exp's vote over on Ash though and think that's a weird one. Anyone know how many of the above 8 voters signalled pretty clearly that they would be voting for Striker, say, 3 or so hours before the cycle ended?

Ah yes, I agree, but I differ in that I signaled that I wasn't going to signal my vote.

Yep, my PM says 20 hours ago, so 6 hours into the cycle or so? I believe it was around when I made the post about others feeling free to hold me to sharing my suspicions today. Do you mean I didn't signal my vote? So, now I'll share my suspicions after wanting to see how that first day went. I was initially suspicious of Archer, and then backed off as it feels like his genuine style the just rubbed me wrong at first. JNV's first post of the cycle and then Experience's post that I quoted above each gave me bad vibes as well. I threw the vote on JNV and probably would've switched it to Exp had I had more time at the end of the cycle to do so. I'm playing this game pretty chill, and without any informal vote tallies, I did not think that Striker was that in the lead of votes. I expected there to be a much closer vote between Ash, Archer, and Striker, with maybe someone replacing Ash or Archer if some secret votes were congregating.

This feels pretty off to me. Not sure why but yeah. I meant to post this at the end of the cycle, but I had to run to school and didn’t realize till I had already gotten there and the cycle was up that I had forgotten to actually push post. So here it is now. I’ll be back after class.

My posts are much quicker and easier to digest. I’ll leave the analysis to you two.

Ah, I see. I thought you meant about my position on secret voting and I was confused. That position I held before this started and I’ll keep after this game.

Oh yes, I definitely agree. And with the second paragraph that I didn’t quote. Everyone should discuss suspicions in thread since this game can’t be won solo and there are no PMs. I just don’t think those suspicion discussions need to entail any sort of sharing about vote plans at all. This cycle I honestly don’t have anything more than a couple of gut suspicions based off reactions to others’ posts but I want to try not sharing them for this first cycle. Hold me to sharing them next cycle if you want, this isn’t something I plan to do on a regular basis. Good. Maybe this sounds weird, but I want this to be obvious that this is something that is not dependent on my alignment. Game mechanics should always be viable options for either team to pursue or they should be removed from the game design imo. This is my stance on Smokers originally and it’s transferring here too and it’s the hill I’ll die on. What did I re-evaluate?

Yes, mostly. And the italicized part is at least half my motivation. What’s the point of a game mechanic if it’s never used? If Lotus wanted it built into the game, it storming well should have a point. My one slight deviation is that I think there is occasionally (at least initially) a place for not discussing your vote in the thread at all and then placing one secretly.