Elandera
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Everything posted by Elandera
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TJ
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Basing reads solely on D1 can be tricky, but it's not necessarily bad if combined with other things. Some people, Striker included, tend to give off elim vibes early in a game no matter what, so I understand them not being keen on reasons based on D1. Just because some people disagree doesn't mean you should stop doing it, though.
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Oh, that absolutely should be done. It's how a lot of elims have been caught on D1 over the years. When you said D1 reasoning, I thought you meant the reasons people give for certain votes on D1. Since most voters are village (usually), the reasons are vague and half-formed suspicions based on one or two things. However, if someone slips and seems to know more than a villager should, that's a different thing entirely to me.
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Because that lack of information also leads to villagers making more mistakes that look elimy later. D1 is a chance for elims to slip up more because they hold far more information than anyone else, but it doesn't mean that villagers are infallible in their ignorance.
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Striker, maybe Quinn (only if Striker isn't), Forge
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Vote count for reference: Connie (0) - Araris, TJ Elandera (2) - Striker, TJ Tani (0) - TJ Striker (1) - Elandera Araris (2) - Quinn, Forge Quinn (1) - Araris I really don't like the exe on Araris, as I've stated multiple times. The one on me makes more sense, but I still don't like it. Striker is still my strongest read, but Quinn's a close second. I'll switch later if no one seems inclined to join me on Striker. Ninja'd by Quinn D1 was to distance from a tie (because vote manip), not to break one. D3 was because I really didn't like the late swing and figured more people would stay on Books. It had nothing to do with the target of the swing, just that there was one on a day where so many people (myself included) had been ambivalent about the exe vote. As shown by the last LG, that kind of setup usually allows elims to control the exe and I was concerned that was what happened. It goes beyond just the votes. There is the strange activity there, but also that Striker verbally expressed doubt about the late swing much like I did, but did nothing to act on it. That to me appears to be an elim teammate who doesn't want to act to save their teammate in case it doesn't work but also hoping to get people to hesitate to add more votes or to get them to remove their votes. Granted, it was in the final minute so even creating a tie like he could have would have been a gamble with vote manipulation. Yes, I realize how this sounds coming from me of all people...
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Striker for the reason stated in the night turn.
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I'd forgotten about that game. I helped run it, but from what I remember, Szeth was basically inactive. Part of the motivation for that bus was to get Nightblood into active hands. I don't see that applying here. That reminder does make me back off my clear of Araris, but not entirely. A bus in this scenario wouldn't make much sense. EDIT: I'm too tired for this. Forgot to respond to the other stuff. I'd say I'd have been a decent option since most people have expressed suspicion, but that wouldn't help much. It was just more the attitude near the end that would have led to nearly any kind of train. No real discussion all day, ambivalence towards the current candidates, and no solid leads. Those together usually lead to last-minute trains on basically the first possible option.
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Not confirmed, no, but he did start the train that exe'd an elim at a very dangerous time unless he wanted to bus a teammate. Again, a teammate who wasn't around to defend themselves. That would only make sense for the Araris I'm familiar with if you were Sadeas. In this scenario, you're Sadeas, Araris is a roled elim, and Whysper is as they flipped. Araris doesn't want to let you die because Sadeas (ignoring the fact he put you in lead/tied for most of the turn). Except he doesn't want to die because this theoretical role is also useful. But who can he start a train on that would get momentum? Whysper. Solely because of the last cycle. Except there are other options that wouldn't have killed a teammate. Almost anyone, really. So why bus a teammate who wasn't even up for the exe yet? That's the thing with bussing. It's become a little more common, so it's being considered a normal thing to do just to gain trust. It should only be used if necessary. If your teammate has done something that village!you couldn't ignore. So maybe I'm being idealistic, but I don't see Araris as bussing just to bus. Not when a village train could have been just as easy.
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I'll be your Commissioner Gordon, then? I seriously don't get the suspicion on you. Not that it's going to help your case at all. Bussing the way this vote happened would not make sense unless Books is Sadeas. Even then, I suspect he would not have started a bus on an elim teammate not around to defend themselves. He'd have just let himself die. Mildly sus of Gears and more of TJ (EDIT: and Striker) for their opinions on Araris. Elims hoping to shade a near-confirmed villager? Striker more so for also expressing concern about the switch in votes (hypocritical, maybe, but I'd be wary of myself if I weren't myself).
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Even I'm starting to think I'm elim at this point. Why would Araris bus a teammate who wasn't even up for the vote at that point and risk being in the lead himself? He's not beyond it, no, but even those of us who like a good bus wouldn't willing offer up a teammate as a sacrifice unless that was our only option. He easily could have stayed on Books to self-preserve.
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Not his sudden change. Just the sudden change to Whysper.
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books EDIT: I don't like this sudden change.
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TJ Shade Gut read only at this point. Too much of a headache to figure out why.
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I suspect the elim(s) in the Highprince doc may be killing based on who they suspect are also in the doc so they can control the events to their advantage.
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It could just be my old lady playstyle doesn't mesh well with the seeming new meta, but anyone who expresses adamant trust (village reads) of anyone else D1 will always set off my gut read. I think there was a third village read, but I don't remember who. On top of that, it seemed (to me) not to be the normal "instinct tells me they're probably village" but conveyed as a "they're definitely village." Like Araris, that seems like pocketing to me. Blunt as Mjolnir, but pocketing.
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This is a direct contradiction to Archer's statement that no one seems to be defending Dannex. The only people I recall who have stated hesitations are Archer, you, and Dannex (understandably).
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You know, I'm increasingly suspicious of Archer trying so ardently to protect Dannex. Unless you're that elim intervention... I'd be willing to switch to Archer if anyone has misgivings about a Dannexe.
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To be fair, it doesn't make sense for a villager either. I see villagers cast self-pres votes more often than elims because the villager can only trust that they are village, not the other candidate. At the same time, elims have teammates who can vote for them (and maybe do vote manip), so there is usually less incentive for immediate self-preservation.
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If Dannex is elim, then I'd put a fair bit of trust in Ash for that vote. If Dannex is village, then the vote is mostly NAI and I'd not put so much trust that Ash was village. Ninja'd by Quinn. What she said. Also, Dannex's alignment may also say something about Araris and me since those seem to be the other main suspicious votes for people.
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I lean village based on the late vote, but that largely depends on Dannex's flip. Speaking of which, might as well get it going. Dannex
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I don't disagree that there seemed to be no reasoning for voting you, but I did have reason to vote for Illwei. As good a reasoning as anyone can have D1. I am admittedly bad at reading Illwei, but their consistent statements that people were village seemed like a way to get people to trust them. Obviously, the suspicion was misplaced. However, saying it was the least effective D1 vote is a bit extreme. There are far worse outcomes than getting some proof of vote manipulation.
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If that's how it seemed, it wasn't intentional. I knew it wasn't breaking the tie as Araris' vote did that. I was trying to create distance away from a possible tie in case there was vote manip on Illwei and the other person ended up dead instead. Especially when I didn't believe Dannex to be elim. I'm with Dannex, though. What exactly was the reason for the votes on them? I don't recall seeing any reason which only created more reason for me to vote Illwei instead of Dannex. As for the vote manip, that is curious. Dannex wasn't around, so if they are elim, it would make sense that an elim Spokesperson took away a vote to save their own teammate without drawing as much suspicion onto them as public votes would. Again, that's assuming Dannex is an elim and not a villager. If a village Spokesperson felt like me, they could easily have not thought Dannex a good exe candidate and took a vote off to save them.
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As I mentioned, Illwei was already my second choice for a vote before votes started piling on her in earnest. Mostly a gut read, but I am rather suspicious of how quickly she's labeled so many people as village from one or two posts at most. But when I saw the potential for a viable exe on one of my suspicions (combined with getting closer to the end of the turn), I moved over. As for assuming Illwei is elim, I assume everyone is elim until given reason to think otherwise.
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You do have a point, but it seems there's honest suspicion of Illwei (which seems beyond normal D1 suspicions) then why would we leave it up to chance and elim manipulation if elim!Illwei could die now?
