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Ivory Dragonfly
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Everything posted by Ivory Dragonfly
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So we have a lynch between Hyena who might have been working with Axolotl, Mouse who was probably working with Axolotl, and Tuatara who has outright admitted to working with Axolotl. We're lynching one of these players because we can, and on the off-chance that one of them possesses Odium. With supposedly at least two factions working with Axolotl, and the possibility that Odium reverted to Falcon or Hidden Garden, our chances of actually lynching Odium are not great. What's the next step here? Keep lynching people until Odium is found? Wiping out the faction(s) that worked with Axolotl? Khriss's faction is not named after her; it's the Silverlight Research labs faction. On Day 1, Joe clarified that a single player counts as a faction unless they don't, which, while not particularly helpful, does mean that it's possible for a faction to have only one member. Since Axolotl helped kill Opal, it might have been a good idea to reveal that information. Ostrich seemed rather sure that Axolotl was lying about not having a secret role, which would make sense if they were in the Roshar doc. Ostrich apparently believed that Axolotl would spill more secrets if left alive, but seeing as how Axolotl went to their death still clinging to lies, this may not have been true. -
Hyena is right that the Night 5 writeup implied that Hoid was the only member of his faction. Special abilities are only revealed if all members of a faction end up in the Spiritual Realm, yet Hoid's abilities will be revealed if just Axolotl ends up there. In that case, Odium would have gone to someone who isn't an Ancient, and lynching the new Vessel will not cause the Shard to leave it's current faction. Who else was on Roshar when this happened? I don't recall anyone bringing this up during the Axolotl lynch.
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Unless I have gone blind, the Eyes of Trell have never appeared on the player list, so its current absence from the list doesn't mean it's gone. Axolotl did support Crocodile relatively strongly during day 4 with the lynch between Lion and Crocodile. Looking at the votes between days four and five, I may have discovered evidence of a purple alliance. Opal(9): Mauve, Onyx, Charcoal, Cream, Melon, Violet, Turquoise, Sunburst, AMBITION Mauve(8): Indigo, Saffron, Ivory, Quartz, Azure, Emerald, Opal, Salmon Pearl(8): Ambition, Azure, Charcoal, Cream, Ivory, Mauve, Onyx, Violet Axolotl (12): Chartreuse, Emerald, Indigo, Magenta, Melon, Mint, Pearl, Plum, Quartz, Saffron, Sapphire, Taupe Of the eight players who voted for Opal Lion, five of them voted in support of Axolotl, with only Dingo joining the lynch against Axolotl. Similarly, five of the seven players who voted in support of Axolotl also defended Mauve, with the exceptions being Mouse and I. According to Beagle, who is rejoining us after a two and a half week vacation, Mouse's faction had a PM with Axolotl. Any such PM likely would have come after Mouse revealed that Axolotl had taken two actions, including a self-targeting one. As it's rather rude to kill off one's PM partners, it would make sense for Mouse not to vote for Axolotl in that scenario. As for me, I learned that even if an accusation seems baseless, it is likely to be true and the accusers just aren't willing to explain why they know things. Since we're playing "Who took the Od'yum from that old Hoid's corpse?"(Who me? Couldn't be), and because we might be punished by the Almighty GMs for placing our first vote fewer than six hours before rollover, I will put a placeholder vote on Charcoal Hyena until I get someone to tell me what's going on. Is the push to lynch possible allies of Axolotl designed to kill the new Vessel of Odium? Is it to exterminate any faction members of Axolotl that may or may not exist? Because we have nothing better to do with the lynch?
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I don't know why Joe would be uncertain where Odium ended up if something as simple as Investing or passing took place. In the clarification about where Shards end up if no member of the Vessel's faction is alive and nobody was Invested, Joe listed 'shared an alignment with the Shard' and 'targeted by the Shard' as qualifications to become the new Vessel. While it's unclear whether Axolotl actually tried to attack Falcon with Odium, if that attack did occur, Falcon could be the new Vessel of Odium.
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It looks like I've missed a lot. We've engaged in the blasphemy of discussing the lynch more than six hours in advance. Weasel made a claim about Shard-passing that presupposed Axolotl was Odium. I could have said something along the lines of 'lynching Odium wouldn't prevent the Shard from passing to a player of Odium's choice, but instead I addressed the factual errors of that claim using Weasel's assumption to save time. Heron definitely seemed more sure that Axolotl possessed Odium in their most recent post as opposed to their previous one, though Axolotl still denies possessing Odium. This could be condemning, if true. I don't see how you could say this for sure though unless Axolotl confessed to someone. The closest evidence I can think of is a combination of Falcon being attacked and a Truthwatch scan showing that Axolotl targeted Falcon. That would still be pretty suspicious if Falcon and Axolotl are on different planets, as only Shards, Researchers, and Elantrians can target off-planet, but not conclusive proof of murderous intent. Would some of those stops include revealing information in thread? If you would answer questions in an Elantrian or 1-on-1 Cultivation PM no matter who sent the message, you can afford to spill a few secrets to everyone. To start with, why did Heron claim that you were Hoid and Odium's Vessel with markedly increased surety?
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Would you have voted for Iguana had the coin come up the other way, or did you change your flip to Axolotl vs. Chameleon? We know Hidden Garden has killed at least one player. It may be they were only going after suspected Shards, but they were willing to kill. I don't see how lynching Axolotl would prevent Odium from passing on to a successor of Axolotl's choice, because taking the day turn to pass a Shard is always an option. That you know Odium Invested in someone just makes it more likely that your faction is in contact with Hidden Garden.
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I do not have a better option for who might have taken Odium. Penguin appears to, but won't share unless the theory identifies an actual suspect, and presumably even then only if the thief can't come to a proper arrangement with Hidden Garden. All Penguin has shared is that it probably wasn't Axolotl, and if the faction that most wants the thief found doesn't think Axolotl is the thief, I don't see much reason to lynch Axolotl for it. We would see role and faction, yes, but we wouldn't learn anything about how Axolotl managed to take two actions in a turn, which seemed to be the main reason you wanted to lynch Axolotl. I do agree that it would be convenient if Axolotl explained their abilities, but that's not usually the type of discussion that goes in the thread. Iguana was the one to claim Nazh existed, while voting for Axolotl on suspicion of being Hoid. Since Iguana seems in favor of Khriss/Nazh, yet apparently wants Axolotl dead, I conclude that Axolotl is not Nazh. While Iguana could be lying, it would seem that there are at least two surviving secret roles. What alliance would this be? Just Hidden Garden/Weasel's faction combining? Some other combination of Shards that can kill? How would you have found out about this?
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If @Chartreuse Penguin comes up with the name of Odium's current Vessel, I might be persuaded to vote for that player. As it is, there don't appear to be many great lynch options. Weasel has a vote for spreading Flamingo's confidential information, but lynching Weasel has never gone well. Iguana has votes because they were in contact with Khriss before she died. If Nazh also dies, this connection might be worth looking into again. Beagle has a vote because they haven't posted in almost two weeks, despite occasionally viewing the Shard. Axolotl has votes for possibly killing Khriss, for possibly stealing Odium, and for possibly having a secret role/not being in a faction. Zebra has a vote for subtly wanting Axolotl to be lynched, or possibly for viewing Khriss as hostile. Chameleon has a vote for being obvious about their desire to see Axolotl dead for their possible role. Honestly, one of my main concerns at the moment is that Ruin might be starting to kill people, if that's what Weasel's comment about Axolotl no longer being protected from the lynch means. It remains to be seen whether the new owner of Odium will show similar bloodthirst. Of the lynch options, I will go with Chameleon for now, as they seem the most willing to kill of the lot.
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Looking back on the first cycle, it appears that after retracting speculation on Odium and Devotion, the only Shard Axolotl claimed knowledge of was Ruin, who supposedly worldhopped D1. No claim was made about which Shards remained on Silverlight. Killing Axolotl wouldn't really give us any information. If it's a normal role, we still lack information about the double action. As we learned from Khriss's death, we aren't given any information about secret roles or factions until all members of that faction pass on to the Spiritual Realm. If Axolotl is Hoid or Kelsier or what-have-you, we learn nothing about their abilities unless Axolotl is killed, Returned, and killed again, which is a lot of effort to clear up this mystery. As for the theft of Odium, it appears that there are multiple surviving secret roles in this game. If Penguin/Hidden Garden comes up with a suspect, or Odium starts killing people, I'll look more into this. but for now I will not vote for Axolotl on the basis of Odium's disappearance.
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Can you explain why you disagree, beyond the circumstances of Khriss's death?
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As Ivory, I can confirm that in my world doc, Zebra asked me to corroborate one of Iguana's claims. I denied that claim, but as it appears Iguana mixed me up with Flamingo, everything should be fine unless @Onyx Flamingo also denies Iguana's claim. Hoid has never been able to take kill actions in any of Seonid's Shard games(LG21, LG29, LG43). It could be different this game, but I would be reasonably certain that Khriss could not have been killed by Hoid.
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Axolotl(4): Mouse, Falcon, Albatross, Zebra Crocodile(3): Weasel, Iguana, Dragonfly Lion(2): Crocodile, Flamingo Dingo(1): Axolotl Weasel(1): Gecko Here we come with yet more lynches decided in the last few hours. To choose from, we have two players who will survive a lynch, two random players who likely wouldn't, and a revenge vote . Ruin's not going to be attacking Weasel, unless Weasel lied about having Ruin in the faction. Odium and other attack roles technically could attack Weasel, but if Devotion doesn't redirect, the likely occurrence is that the attack bounces off Feruchemical protection. It's possible Axolotl could be lynched next cycle, but if the reason for survival is say, Endowment-granted Feruchemy, there's nothing stopping Axolotl from gaining another extra life. There's an awful lot of Feruchemical protection in this game. While I would like to see more from Dingo, right now I will vote for Crocodile. So far, they're the only lynch that isn't futile or randomly targeted.
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There aren't a whole lot of self-targeting abilities in this game. Assuming Weasel is telling the truth about being redirected, you actually did target yourself. To my knowledge, and I invite anyone to correct me if I'm wrong, the only non-Shardic ability that can self-target is Feruchemist. However, I know that you haven't been to Scadrial in time to gain that role, so the only way I can see for you to be a Feruchemist is if Endowment gave you that role. If not from holding a Shard, the only way to gain a double action appears to be Cultivation's Investment ability. If your faction does hold Endowment, may I ask why you didn't Return anyone last night?
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There's not really a lot more Weasel can do to prove their claims unless faction members claim Devotion and/or Ruin, or if Ruin destroys a planet. If Weasel was telling the truth about the faction name, which is uncertain, they haven't lost anyone yet. While lynching a member of that faction might therefore be useful, especially if their wincon doesn't require allies, I don't see great reasons to target Weasel specifically when Devotion is available to protect them every cycle. The other main lynch candidate appears to be Lion, supposedly a random player not in Crocodile's faction. Arbitrary lynches led to the death of another Utility Company member yesterday, so perhaps this time we'll get the accused, @Opal Lion to speak in their own defence. What lynch target would you like to offer?
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If it's only one Shard, it would suggest that said Shard doesn't necessarily want to create Yolen, or possibly has given up. If creating Yolen was a priority, a single Shard could contribute five charges of Investiture. As lynching a Shard doesn't really do anything other than change the identity of the Vessel, I don't see many good reasons to prioritise lynching Shards.
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Fine. I'll vote for Octopus then. That should ensure that a lynch goes through. If Weasel and Octopus are factionmates, and their wincon is to save everyone in their faction from a lynch, good job.
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Weasel(4): Falcon, Gecko, Dingo, Zebra Octopus(4): Swan, Weasel, Axolotl, Mouse Swan(1): Octopus Edit: (Why is the keyboard shortcut to post so easily to use accidentally) Here's the new vote tally, and since Weasel's faction has the forger role, it will likely be Octopus that dies. The interesting news from the Scadrial doc is that Weasel has claimed they would die if lynched. I do not know whether the potential ability to kill Weasel means we should, though. @A Joe in the Bush, if the lynch is tied, what happens?
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So your faction doesn't really need the help of others to complete its win condition. Seems fair. Octopus would almost certainly die if lynched, as they're not on Scadrial. The only way I see them surviving is if Octopus and Weasel are in the same faction, and Devotion protected Octopus last night. Meanwhile, your faction should have a Forger that can probably move a vote off you. Since your faction has Ruin, were they the one to kill Penguin?
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Weasel(3): Falcon, Swan, Mouse Swan(3): Gecko, Weasel, Octopus Well this is an exciting lynch. I would not be surprised if the bandwagon on Swan, and then the reverse bandwagon on Weasel, gave an indication of factional alliances. I assume this is the same theory you proposed in the Scadrial doc? I will note that even if true, it doesn't guarantee Weasel was protected by Devotion, as it could be the case that Devotion was attacked directly I don't see how your alliances would die with you, as you have a faction to back you up. Even if your alliances are based on PMs, your faction could solve that problem by going to Sel and becoming Elantrians. I would also like to ask what has changed since the previous day that your faction now supports players dying.
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... "And Silverpoly will never again meddle with Shardic power". With those words, the vision ended. Makido blinked rapidly to cover his disorientation at being thrust back into the real world. He had drained the contents of the coppermind, reliving every memory through the eyes of the one who had filled it. He had seen the Silverlight War, from one perspective at least. The release of the Shards, Ruin's rampages across Braize and Silverlight, the casual way those long ago researchers murdered each other for power, up to Autonomy's eventual triumph. The Archivist had been no better than the others, Makido noted. Idly, he wondered what had happened to that Archivist, and how their metalmind had ended up in his possession. Makido brushed those thoughts off. He had more important matters to attend to; he had to record the events in metal before he forgot all the details. Cupping his right hand over his eyes to ward off the sun, wait, why was the sun out already? More time must have passed than he had realized. Harmony's Bands would be opening soon, and he couldn't be caught with a metalmind in his possession. Perhaps it was time to take a leave of absence. He couldn't help prevent this new war from escalating by sitting behind a desk all day. Grabbing the depleted coppermind and the roll of aluminum, Makido left the shop behind. @Mauve Crocodile, since Autonomy is dead and was one of the players on Zebra's list, would you mind telling us what you were referring to last night when you said there was someone else more likely to be Autonomy?
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I spaced on Devotion's ability, and assumed that actions targeting Weasel would be redirected to Devotion, when in fact it's the actions taken last night that were redirected.
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There was nothing in the Scadrial doc, so it has to be a faction discussion. They better have some really good reason to do this. I'm actually really starting to think their faction does have Odium, as Weasel's stunt has essentially sent out a message of "Hey Odium, here's who you target tonight if you want to Shatter Devotion", and I can't see why they would want to risk that for minimal gain. It's also possible their faction has Honour instead, but as that would grant them the equivalent of three protection actions every night (Devotion's redirect, Honour's protect, and a Bondsmith's protect) in addition to lynch immunity for one player, that almost makes them a bigger threat. Edit: They also could have Preservation, but they can only protect the same player every other cycle, and all else being equal, they likely would have protected their Shard N1. Still, it's a possibility, and another scary one between the Mistborn ability and Devotion's redirect. Autonomy won really quickly in LG43 with that same wincon, so I have to hope they have something more challenging this game.
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I'd assume Worldhopping goes before claiming Shardworld roles, so even a Shard would have to take a turn to Worldhop, then claim the role on the next cycle. At least that's how it worked in the previous iteration of this game. It might be worth it to ask @Seonid to confirm. Can a player acquire the Shardworld role on the same turn they Worldhopped to it? With five current votes and only two for the nearest competitors, it appears the lynch on Weasel will be attempted. I'm apprehensive, but at this point I'm just going to give up and vote Weasel. If you went through all this just to show off your extra life, congratulations.
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Lynching Weasel and actually killing him would give us information, but more and more I'm concerned that he's doing all this because he'll survive, and therefore waste a lynch. In that case, all we'll learn is that attempting to lynch Weasel is futile. His recent claims in the Scadrial doc are that 1. He doesn't have a win condition that specifically requires him to be lynched, 2. That it doesn't matter whether or not he keeps his vote on himself, and 3. He might be doing this just to prove that he can survive. Weasel is on Scadrial, but since today is the earliest he could gain the Feruchemist role and using it is a night action, they only way he could currently have the Feruchemist extra life is if Endowment gave it to him day 1. The other known ways he could survive are Devotion's Shardic power and the Dakhor Monk Investment role, with the latter possibly being less likely since he apparently was unaware that Dominion could create Dakhor Monks, not Forgers.
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There's almost certainly not going to be a mechanic where somebody wins immediately by being lynched. Even a win condition like "Prevent X lynches" seems a bit too easy with the proper Shards. More likely than Weasel having a win condition that is specifically helped by him being lynched, his faction has access to some power that protects from lynches, such as Devotion's Shardic power. There would probably be some motive beyond just wasting a lynch for Weasel to be doing this, though I have only speculation on what that could be. Perhaps his faction simply benefits from a longer game. Regardless, while it's still worthwhile to ask Weasel the one question, it is probably not worthwhile to investigate, for example, Weasel seeming to claim Odium(unless the Odium question is asked and receives the answer of yes).
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