Opal Lion

Curious as to why you'd vote me, I'm just a Thug, but Flamingo is either an extremely lucky Mistborn or an elim. Or an extremely lucky elim Mistborn. And if Flamingo is indeed an elim (implying elims having a Thug and a Lurcher), then it would require a crazy distro for me to be an elim.

[OoC: To anyone who thinks I should have claimed Thug/susses me for not/whatever, I literally (not like you would use literally; like an intelligent human being would use literally) could not have claimed. I checked in at 6:53 (rollover: 7:00), read a few posts that made me think I wasn't in much danger, then had to go. Had I had time, I would have claimed, because a Thug death isn't useful, especially after Flamingo not flipping] Guy go sleep be4 u guys try kill Guy. Now u guys angry at Guy 4 sleep.

Wall post from me, wee. You have no idea how funny I found this despite not actually ever having to deal with Smoker hate. I say this because my identity is probably easy to tell at this point because I literally cannot change my playstyle. Cham Seeker confirmed. Can't say I'm a fan of this plan. But I think the concept of three coinshots just makes me more worried at what in the world the elim team has to balance that rather than how good that would be for the village. Apparently someone really wanted me dead. Which, understandable, but no thank you. I dislike the use of lurking as a case on me. I get far more reading time than I do posting time, it is only moments like now were I can engage properly with the comments I've read in the form of a wallpost. Otherwise I can't properly respond to analysis, which has been my big problem this game. I also think this is odd as a reaction test. You claim that only TMI gives you a village read of the Tineye, but do you really think an elim posts that kind of message? I come from ToS, that's how my mind works at its core, and fake claiming is super common there. So I realize the actual difficulty of claiming your actions, especially when there is evidence you did something else. I no survive. I no die. I eat food and all think I should be die. And I no likie murder.

[OOC: I'm in an odd slump right now, can't seem to really form any suspicions. If I had to vote I'd go for Flamingo, since not claiming feels very odd to me. I understand the reasoning, but the biggest thing holding me back is I'd expect an elim to at least cop out a Thug claim when under this much threat. I might try to ISO Dragonfly to see why people are going after him, could someone highlight some of the main reasons for e!Dragonfly?] Guy no kno wot go on, Guy think Spiked runned away and everyone good guy.

Meanie. [Not into puzzle solving myself, but I'm not inclined to believe the evilness of the Tineye. That feels like an odd move to make, if they ever want to claim they have to take credit for at least one of someone else's messages, which leaves room for a condemning counter claim. Of course you could just say that you posted that as a joke, and that the code said that or something, but I think elims would be less inclined to do so.] [Nothing you just said seems to have bearing on Flamingo claiming. I think they should, but am not sure how AI their lack of sharing is. There are conclusions elims could draw from silence just as well as a true claim.]

Your name is Salmon Meerkas, right? Hybrid creation of the great animal the Meerkat and the random human, Kas. Body of an oddly colored animal, mind of an oddly anti-red human. Tone, and nothing else. I've looked again and my initial thought was lessened looking at it again, but when I first saw it I went, wait what? How do you know that? It does slightly, but like I said, I'm not sure it's elim tmi, role tmi, or PMing tmi, and am starting to doubt it's existence. So my read is a little bit lost as of now. Artificial barriers that mean nothing but in Meerkas' mind. I'd guess they'd basically be where the color switches on a gradient.

Go too fast for Guy. Guy no like so fast. [OoC: In response to all the people who queried by read of Mauve's comment, I get the feeling that he wasn't being technical about, but rather let slip something. As Meerkas pointed out, it could be him being a vote manip or even a PM confidante, my mind just went straight to elim. Might check in before rollover, might miss it reading Tress. We'll see, I have no idea who to vote right now.]

Guy no think Smartodile meant dead guy, Guy think Smartodile meant elim guy. Could be, but Guy no think so.

[OoC: the thinking does not seem to be good for your sanity] Guy laugh loud! Bahahahahahohohaho! Wot so funny? [I don't think this tactic actually increases ingagement, but happy to participate) Guy no likie Croc, [the 'of course there's a vote manip' feels like tmi and if they are I would look into it] Guy no kno wot on Sage [maybe a little bad) Guy kinda likie Hyena [gut] [Summary thingy of d1]

Guy look messages. Guy no understand. Guy never understand. Guy no read. Wot say?

[OOC for Seriousness: I personally think Meerkat (and others to a lesser extent) have far overreacted. It was (as far as I can tell) a simple placeholder vote because of an admittedly annoying activity. I'm fairly sure that if they had found a better suspect, they would have moved. Yesterday was pretty lax for targets in my opinion, so I can understand where they're coming from. I have a feeling that Meerkat was probably hoping for an easy uncontroversial AG, and so when he saw a chance that would be broken, he far overreacted. Real life could also be playing a factor in this, but I can't know what's going on there. TL;DR:] Purple Rat annoyed and Katman upset. People angry bad so Guy sad.

Wot miss? U callin me stoopid?

Oopsie doo! Guy miss rollover. Guy not sure hoo Guy think baddie. Guy need look for baddies. Guy see u later.

Guy look at town. Town look same. Town not always look same. Guy wonder. Dey say dere r Spik-ed but Guy no sure bout dat. Dere hab always ben Spik-ed in T Falls. Guy has seen one before. Guy did saw the villagers tear de Spik-ed apart. Wat dat? Does taist good? Hai!

Lion is sad that Lion didn't get a chance to really play this game. But he did have fun watching it from the dead doc!

Lion is suspicious of Swan, Iguana and Gorilla. Lion is not suspicious of Octopus

Lion somewhat agrees with this thought.

Lion finds this result interesting yet unexpected. Lion knows that statistically we are much more likely to kill a villager than a eliminator. Lion wonders if the train on Crocodile was at all influenced by the bad guys or if they simply stood back and let nature take its course. Lion wonders a lot of things.

Lion knows that the Ja isn't the real god. He knows that the only real god is Trell.

Do we know if everyone has a role? Lion cannot recall from the rules if everyone has a role or not.

Forgive Lion for his absence. Lion was sleeping. Lion likes to sleep. Lion had things to do and places to be, but Lion slept instead. He's a good lion.

Thanks Dragonfly Unfortunately, the text editor ate my longpost, which is discouraging and I guess I'm going to redo it. Lion's Longpost of Longposts: A. Updated Vote Analysis B. Updated Gem Tracker C. Updated Reads List D. The Road Ahead Thank you for subscribing to Lion 2.0 pinch-hitting services! Please rate our service on our Frostlands appstore! Stay safe out there and stay frosty!

Well, that's a relief. I had been doubting near the end due to Heron's reactions, but I generally favour voting patterns and Tuatara's response makes no sense except as a ploy to splinter the vote. From the vote numbers, we now know Tuatara is not in workform. I would advise Tuatara as tomorrow's lynch target. (Tuatara could've shifted to Mediationform, IDK.) [Edit: I mean workform, tonight. God, my brain...] Claiming not to be a Villager during a key vote threatens to splinter the vote and reads like an Elim attempt to see if an alternate train can gain sufficient traction to save their Mediationform. Heron deliberately ignoring their suspicion of Tuatara D4 to go on Hyena looks suspicious: There was a three way tie, and Heron pushed onto Hyena rather than Beagle or Tuatara, late in the cycle. Doing so incriminated them needlessly. In my view, this was likely because Tuatara was also Elim. N2: Tuatara shows up D2 during the swing from Heron to Penguin, but doesn't vote due to being on mobile. During D2, I notice Tuatara loitering in the thread enough and @ them over it and ask for their suspicions. Tuatara says: By N2, when Beagle asks them who they would have voted for if they could, Tuatara says they'd have gone for Heron: Except they didn't vote on Heron when it counted (remember we had that D2 swing from Heron to Penguin!), and cited out-of-thread reasons. But this was N2, when Heron had already created a PM with me and Rhino. What out-of-thread reasons are those? Reads like an Elim trying to not have to pressure a teammate further. Despite suspecting Mouse D2, Tuatara has backed off on them by D4: But something about this post on Beagle reads too knowing, especially in light of the rampant inactivity this game, the fact that Tuatara is in a similar position, and that we have been plagued with inactivity. It reads like a player casting about for convenient suspicions (which happen to be the two players voting on them!) rather than actually gamesolving. This is compounded by what follows: On N4, Tuatara says this: Where does Tuatara come by this certainty that Beagle and Heron were confirmed Elim? Self-pres is not by itself suspicious. Vulture was leaning towards Evil Beagle but that was because Vulture already thought Heron was Evil! There was no clear thread consensus on Beagle, nor on Heron, and it reads like a player with TMI. The results of this cycle in my view increase my Village credences in Mouse and Flamingo, both of whom were the first to pick up on the inconsistency in Heron's voting patterns. I think it looks a bit better on Mouse, for specifically advancing the Evil Mediationform Heron theory. In the case of Flamingo, on the assumption that the Elim team has five players, we would have lost N6 unless there was a Village workform: So I am inclined to give Flamingo weak Village cred. They wouldn't be the first place I'd look for an Elim. Moreover, if we look back at the votes on past cycles: This is D4, at the point of Heron's switch. Tuatara was offline and could not switch off Beagle, but Beagle is already on Tuatara. It would be odd for Beagle to join one teammate in voting for another teammate. Let's not forget that with regard to D1 voting: It would once again be odd for Mouse to be Elim and to have two Elims voting on a third Elim. In short, Mouse and Flamingo are non-starters for me. I'm interested in why you think Dragonfly is Evil. I'm also going to say that I'm now increasingly suspicious of Weasel, though not as much as with Tuatara. Tuatara still has to be lynched first, and Tuatara's flip will increase Mouse and Flamingo credences if Tuatara flips Elim. I received a mateform gem D7. In my view, there's only one thing a Villager should be doing and that's grabbing workform gems. As Dragonfly and I have emphasised to the thread again and again, controlling workform gems stands between the Village and potential defeat. A player who isn't grabbing a workform gem isn't helping the Village. @Amber Vulture has commented he distrusts Weasel for gem-hoarding. Given the only extra mateform gem has been with Weasel, it is definitely Weasel who took this action. Moreover, this can't even be proof that Weasel hasn't been doing anything untoward with her action - we have three unaccounted for nimbleform gems, meaning that until we can account for who has taken these gems (likely not Village), night or day actions alone cannot soft clear a player. Be very suspicious of those who attempt to soft-clear themselves this way. tldr; my current lynch preferences: D8 - Tuatara, if there is a D9, Weasel. If there is a D10, Scorpion. The order may shift based on flips, but in my view, the case for Tuatara next is very clear. Edited to add: Seeing as that, like Rhino, I may be soon summoned to Valhalla, I am going to commit to redoing voting analysis with the flips, posting my reads, and talking about what we know of the unaccounted for gems, and projections for the road ahead for the Village. I encourage you to do your own reads and analysis because I am just one Lion, but I also encourage you to be careful not to overthink what is known. Revise lower certainty beliefs first. Only then go to the higher certainty ones. I'll talk more about that in the longpost to end all longposts.

In summation, because I can't believe I missed a meme opportunity: Villagers, please remember to put in gemstone orders. We need to secure those workform gems if we want to have a shot of winning this. Even lynching correctly won't necessarily save us if the Elims get the gems first. Edited to add: Heron's claims of peeling off one to two Villagers really stinks. If you believe Tuatara is Evil, and want one or two players to vote with you, then you are just opening the way for an Elim hammer because there's no way in hell they'd just let us take down Tuatara like that. Furthermore, we are at lylo, a contention you've never disputed. Yet now you somehow think we can afford a divided train? How does that benefit anyone except the Elims? I submit the only players in a position to work that out are the Elims, because they know their team size and who their workforms are. So where does your certainty about the gamestate come from, Heron? Sounds Evil to me.

Sure. Then we'll just lynch you tomorrow Man, y'all wait for @Amber Vulture to be away to try this tactic, I see. What is this disrespect to me Just to recap, guys: Tuatara is a claimed nimbleform, proven as of D6. They cannot be Mediationform, though - Heron has claimed it, but the D6 votes also prove that it is not Tuatara. There is no reason for an Elim to out themselves given we are at lylo, unless trying to save a teammate. This is consistent with Heron's attempted push to switch votes to Tuatara. This is a deliberate, attempted sacrifice to keep their Mediationform alive. There were no votes moving onto Tuatara apart from Heron's vote. Tuatara was not in danger, and the Village has been committed to today's Heron lynch, so there is no reason for the Elims to try to gambit to get us to go harder on Heron - we were already committed anyway! The only explanation is that they are trying to goad a late vote switch and potentially hammer during Village confusion. Due to the fact the Elims win at vote parity, we need to go after the Elim Mediationform first. It is possible we have two Village Mediationforms. But what we definitely do not have are two Elim Mediationforms, or we'd already have lost. And while it's possible we have two Village Mediationforms, I'm going to remind everyone that we have many reasons to suspect Heron, the first and more glaring of which is their voting on Hyena and saving Beagle, or Malibu, from the D4 lynch. If Tuatara wants us to take their claim seriously, then this makes the situation worse for Heron, because as @Azure Mouse and @Onyx Flamingo have pointed out, this means that Heron has continuously mentioned Tuatara as a sus but has never, when it counted, made a decisive vote on them. In fact, their going onto Hyena to break a Hyena-Beagle-Tuatara tie looks exceptionally bad D4 because this now means that Heron somehow not only managed to not vote on their suspect, but also managed to vote for the one Villager out of two Elims. Voting shows where a player's strategic priorities are. Heron's priorities are not Village. There is no reason for an Elim to out themselves. Even if Tuatara is playing like Connie, Tuatara could easily have chosen to stay off the site or not respond. The fact that Tuatara did shows that they're trying to divert the Heron train. To me, that's even more reason to stay the course. We cannot, at this juncture, afford splintered votes. If we have side-trains, we will be hammered, and we will lose. It is possible we are not 5-4 but 6-3, but we have to play as though we're at lylo because the stakes are too high not to. Vulture is away, which unfortunately means any train that doesn't stick with Heron is in trouble due to a potential Elim hammer. My vote remains.