Chartreuse Penguin

… I’m going to finish my breakfast and then get back to this in order.

My current opinion is that nothing about the Amber survival makes sense. I don't know why a V!Coinshot/Mistborn would pick them, and I don't know why an E!Coinshot/Mistborn would whether they were trying to emulate a Village one or going fully for the best second Elim kill or anywhere in between. It's a good, general, middle-of-the-road kill that feels very strange from the perspective of an Elim team that's hit Falcon and Mouse or a Village juggling Meerkat, Iguana, Heron, and so many barely-inactives. I also don't know why a Lurcher would be on them - they could be a Thug instead, but we have no way of knowing for the moment. Hence why I'm not assuming anything about that at the moment. There's also the distinct possibility that E!Mistborn!Chameleon shot at Vulture and chose to lie about it, because there's really not too much reason not to with this level of fog-of-war seemingly still in place and the Village trying to figure out how to read that kind of shot. You're voting on me at the moment. You think I'm more likely to be Elim than Chameleon?

That's fair, I suppose. I like having information around, even if I have to spend time digging to get it. Sometimes it helps people who are smarter than me, sometimes it helps me find places to start. And there's a lot of places to start, now. There's the vote messes of D1, which - in my opinion and with my alignment, hence why I only colored myself - is probably best to leave alone outside of some smaller cases. The only major trains of D1 that haven't either flipped or had more expansive votes D2 are Elephant (which I'm curious about, but it also connects to Chameleon), Penguin (hello! most of the people who voted me seemed to trust me after), and Swan (which was only by 2 votes, so I'll put a pin in it). So until we get more flips - probably going to leave that be for a moment. There's the vote messes of D2, which IMO are more interesting - Meerkat getting just close enough to the exe to fear for their lives before safely lowering, and Iguana not even getting that far. That's mostly what the vote analysis is for. And, conveniently enough, that also ties in to Pearl Chameleon. Other notable strange votes were partially outlined by Albatross earlier, but include Zebra and Beagle (Zebra being the one to start a Iguana flash-train then being first to abandon it, and Beagle being the one to widen the Hyena-Meerkat gap). There's the fact that Amber Vulture somehow survived a Coinshot/Mistborn-Coinshot attempt, when there were much more valuable Lurcher targets and @Amber Vulture has yet to really acknowledge it. There were also, likely, more tempting Coinshot targets - Vulture's not incredibly village read, but more strongly village read than others, like perhaps Meerkat. Or perhaps my idea of people's reads are out of date. There's Pearl Chameleon's claim of Mistborn under duress, and claim of being Seeked. Both things I think we weren't expecting, and that threw me and others for a loop. And lastly, there's both of those last two things together: Vulture being attacked by an ostensible Third Mistborn at the same time Chameleon claims Second Mistborn and reveals a Seeker. Combined with two to three (I think Mouse mentioned three) circulating Smoker claims/flips, I'm really doubting we have three Village Mistborn (or two and a delayed Coinshot) and a Village Seeker. Or at least, that we have that kind of power versus an Elim team that doesn't have the power to answer it, and I don't think we've necessarily seen that power. (Not that we would have, depending on things, but... yeah.) For now, honestly, I'm voting Pearl Chameleon. The Seeker's got your flip, but honestly your flip is important for so many different things, and revealing so much after only a slight push is throwing me off a little bit. There's plenty of other suspects - I should probably put together a readslist soon - but I'm also waiting for a few more things to perhaps come to light. Also Murph has gotten good at killing Mistborn, would hate to not use his skills.

Hmm? Working on my other thing at the moment. I'm used to doing that kind of vote-track thing when there's a few more colors on it... I'm also just getting worried we're going to end up in separate camps while the Elims play divide and conquer.

Time to do a little weird analysis. Here's all the posted vote counts from D1 and D2. D1: D2: Also here's the tally for now, because might as well. One word of warning: I'd be a little nervous about the Village building two opposing trust groups. It's fine for there to be multiple (I'm sure there are), but multiple mutually exclusive ones could lead to a divide-and-conquer fairly easily. Be wary. Any thoughts from you, @Sapphire Elephant? If Pearl Chameleon is Village your train was entirely village for a long time. (Mouse - yes I'll get to analyzing your death, other things have grabbed my attention)

This is what happens when there's no one with four or more votes at an EoD I have... thoughts. Or plans. But I really need to finish this other thing first. Stay tuned.

ngl neither did I...

I think I misinterpreted what you said, I thought you suspected that a Seeker had scanned you, which would be odd. But yeah, fair point. You should ask Don’t necessarily trust it, but they’ve got no reason not to tell someone they’ve scanned Village, unless they’re Elim.

... what do you mean by this? If a Village Seeker scanned you as a Village Mistborn, wouldn't they just come out and say "hey, I'm a Seeker and I see you're a Mistborn, here's what I scanned previously, do what you will with that"? And if an Elim Seeker scanned you as a Village Mistborn, wouldn't they either do what a Villager would do or just not say anything + presumably send an NK your way? How are you not sure but have an idea who?

Per writeup, Mouse was Spiked killed, Vulture was Coinshot-kill-attempted. A WGG would mean E!Coinshot (or more likely, E!Mistborn - E!Coinshot wouldn’t hold fire for much imo).

Because you failed at your job. I'm very compelled by the perspective slip from before that indicated e!you, re: PM paranoia! Village: Albatross, Beagle, Scorp, Swan, Lion, Ostrich, Flamingo, Iguana Positive: Penguin, Meerkat Null: Tuatara, Weasel, Crocodile, Dingo Uhhh: Kangaroo, Elephant Elim: Rhino, Heron, Chameleon How about Vulture?

Now Murph collapsed into a misshapen pile. He was exhausted. Planning for a war could do that to a man. ”So… I hear they’re actually starting to find crews for those ballista of yours,” Aarne said, looking at his ale barrels in no place in particular. “That means the council’s taking them seriously.” ”Maybe,” Murph responded. They were in Aarne’s basement, trying to figure out how to broach a topic the best. Aarne broke the standstill first. He had an annoying habit of doing that. ”Are you trying to become Master Archer again, or are you just insane?” Aarne said, turning to give a small glare. “Seriously, Murph? What were you thinking?” “I wasn’t. I lost my head.” Aarne didn’t drop it. “I’ve never seen you lose your head. You’ve stared down an Inquisitor looking for the slightest reason to shove a coin in your spine. You’ve shot two Mistborn actively trying to find and kill you. And then you fire a crossbow at a stranger walking down the street, and turns out they’re a Mistborn too. So what were you thinking?” Aarne was staring at him now. No judgement. No lack of trust. He didn’t even show if he was disappointed. It made Murph feel empty. ”I don’t know. I thought he was Spiked. Maybe something clued me in to a Mistborn, maybe not. But no one was doing anything. Nobody’s been doing anything for the past year.” ”I thought you were a man of patience, not action. Rioter?” Murph grunted. “I’m both. Maybe. But I don’t think so. They’d have done more. Unless they were being real subtle.” Aarne nodded, hefting a barrel and starting upstairs. “Well. Welcome to Tyrian Falls. There’s a crossbow upstairs under a table, found it in one of those trees. You should really make sure those are better hidden… anyway. Try not to get a murder charge. Or another one.” Murph just nodded. There were other things he could do. … There was a note someone found on the town message board, in addition to the council’s decrees and Tineye whisperings. Stuck there by a crossbow bolt. Two more crossbows lay underneath, freshly carved and strung. Are you finally ready to prepare?

Whyyyy

5 Years Ago "Wake up! Assassins! Lord Tarries is in danger!" Murph shot out of bed with the nine other reserve guardsmen in the keep. Everyone was already dressed in their cloth and leather armor, which was incredibly uncomfortable. But it brought them the precious seconds to get prepared, grabbing their bows and glass knives. "Mistings?" Aarne asked, reaching for his steel axe. Captain Hart's face was grim. "Definitely. Maybe worse. The entire guard shift on the east wing is dead or incapacitated. Tarries has his bunker and personal guard but Thanes is dead, and something's wrong with Chalise. Poisoned or something. This was planned." Aarne groaned, tossing the axe to the side and grabbing dueling canes. Murph and the rest of the reserves echoed him. That was their better Coinshot and one of their Thugs out. House Erikell wasn't lacking for Mistings - Aarne was a Thug himself, but he didn't advertise that fact as much. But they couldn't lose so many people and keep going. But it was their job. They were the only other guards of noble blood, the only ones with hazekiller training. So Murph and the guards ran out into the mists. ... "You got eyes?" Seidre called out, pained. Murph scanned out from his perch, longbow at the ready but not yet drawn. He could see the mists swirling in the grounds below. Lord Tarries Erikell was secure for the moment, but the stones of the keep were red-tinted from even where he stood, and the brief flashes of cloaks showed who really had command of the battlefield. It wasn't just one Mistborn, it was bloody two. Cabe, the only Erikell Mistborn within Luthadel at the moment, was protecting Tarries from one after getting him offsite. The other was still here, and had nearly free reign of the keep despite most of the infiltrating force having retreated. They only had their newer Coinshot keeping the skies clear, and she'd Snapped barely three weeks ago. Murph couldn't even remember her name. And to make matters worse, Tarries and Hart had the rusting brilliant idea to put her in a mistcloak. That gave the infiltrating Mistborn pause for a whole ten seconds, and now Murph and Seidre couldn't take hazekiller shots without risking murdering their own guardian. That meant they had to stop and aim, register, then fire. All the more time for the Mistborn to get out of the way. At least they didn't have atium. That they had used. Murph didn't dare respond. Nothing that could be picked up by tin ears. "Argg. Can't hold the bow," Seidre whispered. She dropped her longbow, then carefully pulled out the crossbow she'd hidden in her cloak. Murph had worked on a few after Lord Tarries said they were a promising addition. But she hadn't loaded it. Crank. Crank. Then their unnamed Coinshot screamed and plummeted from the sky. "Sei-" Murph nearly whispered before biting it off. Instead he drew his bow. A storm of coins flew at Seidre, coming far too close to Murph's position. She cried out, again. A whirl of cloak flew up to her, looming down. As a glass knife descended, Seidre reached up and fired. The Mistborn dodged. Murph released his arrow. The Mistborn fell.

Oh. No, Heron made a brand-new train, when there were a few existing trains (like Rhino) that already existed if they didn't want to join you or Hyena.

That being... what? Mint voted Swan. And now you're voting Scorpion. Did you claim Seeker? Edit for Drake Tallybot Votecount:

Uh... Swan claimed Smoker, which is quite different than openly claiming Seeker. Unless I've missed a reverse-claim, because that would majorly change things. Not sure what I feel about Heron being asked to move off Scorp and then starting a brand-new train.

Got a bit of an update on this. In my opinion, I don't think anyone would pick Falcon to kill without interacting with them. That does exclude most of the inactives, but as mentioned, a few others like Beagle. About half the players left. Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Chartreuse Penguin, Fuchsia Ostrich, Magenta Albatross, Onyx Flamingo, Pearl Chameleon, Saffron Iguana, Salmon Meerkat Saffron Iguana I'm excluding because, now that I look again, they're the only one that actually E!Read Falcon. Onyx and Ostrich also only had the slightest of interactions. Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Chartreuse Penguin, Magenta Albatross, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat Similarly, I don't think players who Falcon directly E!Read would take out Falcon. Technically that includes me, but I'll leave me in for the moment. Takes out Albatross, though. Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Azure Mouse, Charcoal Hyena, Chartreuse Penguin, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat And I think from here, things are possible. I do think there's an argument that I wouldn't go for someone voting on me, but I don't think I'm the person to really make it. Also, Azure Mouse - if anyone has a good argument for why Mouse would kill Falcon first, I'd love to hear it. Not Mouse's style. Amber Vulture, Amethyst Scorpion, Charcoal Hyena, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat Note that I V!Read Scorpion and Chameleon (and E!Read a few excludes like Flamingo), but they fit the criteria. ... that kind of ends up being the current PoE, which might just be a symptom of trying to do player analysis with anon accounts. But it's something.

Just Falcon. It took long enough for them, and Dragonfly much less guaranteed to have Elim interference. Charcoal Hyena

Number of interactions / times they brought up Falcon (or Falcon brought up them) in thread. So Scorpion mentioned Falcon 5 times, 2 of which offered reads. (There were a few things I didn’t count, mostly VCs and un-votes.)

Yeah that's pretty much what I'm getting out of it. (Did that quote work? Hopefully. Can't tell.)

So apparently the way I made that, I can't write above it, so we'll work with this instead. Interactions with Falcon and vice versa. Falcon made an all-inclusive reads list at one point, so no one has no interactions, but there's a lot of players with no interactions with Falcon starting from themselves: Coral Swan, Cream Tuatara, Indigo Weasel, Mauve Crocodile, Melon Dingo, Mint Heron, Opal Lion, Oxblood Beagle, Plum Rhinoceros, Quartz Zebra, Sage Kangaroo, and Sapphire Elephant. About half the total players. Most of those aren't surprising, but the italic ones kind of are. Tuatara because they had multiple PMs, Beagle because they've posted more in depth than the others, and Plum Rhinoceros because they were early active + had multiple Falcon-started interactions. Anything else surprising in here? Saffron Iguana reinforced their E!Read of Falcon an odd amount, but it seems consistent with how they've been playing and how much they've been posting. Similar case with Salmon Meerkat, though Meerkat's opinions changed over time a bit more. Pearl Chameleon is notable for the changing reads, but that's also been consistent with their own style, somewhat. And Azure Mouse honestly has less interactions than I'd expect. Doesn't leave much to work with, but if anyone with less of a sieve-brain wants to look at it, it's there. And it leaves Hyena with more of a reason for the kill. A lot of posts while I was making this so I'll just submit and go from there.

I mean, I don't know of a Tyrian precedent, but there's definitely precedent for multi-kills being labeled as such. Agree with this, except, uh... Tyrian Falls has gone a long way but not quite to having Leechers yet. Though I think this would indicate not to lean on a V!Coinshot. (Shouldn't do that anyway, but you know, Village see Village do.)

Falcon wasn't Coinshot, they were Spiked killed. The writeups don't lie about that in these games. High and/or unconventional distros are always a possibility though. The writeups seem to be turning my slightly-militant Armorer into the town Serial Hazekiller... and you know I can work with that. Murph's done some work like that in the past.

Oh whoops I don't think my read on Mouse or Falcon changes, those two seem alright. Also Penguin, that one seems fine too. Amber Vulture is a bit of a wild card. I like their posts, but they all seem... would have to reread to describe it a bit better. Clinical? Nothing wrong with it, just hard to read tone I guess. Would need to reread. Ostrich and Flamingo I feel a bit worse about. More Flamingo than Ostritch. The side wagons are a bit weird. I don't trust Swan, but I also don't trust anyone voting on Swan. The two voters on you are too inactive to get a read on, and you're almost too active to get a read on. I don't understand the Hyena train that much but I trust Beagle and Scorpion and Chameleon all to some degree. Then Albatross as more a null too. I should reread for things. But want to get productive things done too, so that might be it for now.