Chartreuse Penguin

Well, right now I’m working on a doctor appointment, so big reviews of content have to wait From my memory of EoD, your vote changed the most. Normally that would disrupt vote manipulation attempts somewhat. Except the vote manipulation took votes away from Vulture, and you never voted for Vulture. Therefore a team with E!you has a better picture of how much they need to commit to mess with the exe or save E!Vulture than one without it. Or, in other words: a (likely Elim) Soother worked to save Vulture. You worked to save Vulture. Put two and two together and E!Iguana follows. Still probably want to flip Vulture first, given the choice. But not entirely sure. Alb is mostly gut + the fact they’ve essentially never committed to much. Plus I pushed them into exe contention and suddenly they were viewing the thread.

Voting everyone except Vulture in an exe where Vote Manip saved Vulture. If I had a nickel… I do want to re-check Scorpion, because I don’t know how much I can put into words why I trust them. But that can wait until after I’m done with current things.

I think for me, top 3 reads are Beagle, Scorpion, Lion, with Ostrich as a close-ish fourth. Still don’t have a solid opinion on Meerkat or many others. Neutral on Cham. Suspicious of Iguana and Albatross. Also not certain how Village Reads play out in theory versus Trusts in practice. The players I fully Trust are very few. But maybe that’s just me. Something I do want to toss out there - an E!Soother could have pretty easily decided to mess with a V!Vulture exe just for the chaos of it, which is potentially a reason to go for Iguana over Vulture. Or we could just knock out Vulture.

Now Murph's back hurt. Spending three hours in a stakeout could do that. He'd taken two of his better crossbows and a handful of Hazekiller bolts and stayed on a rooftop, letting the ash cover him. He'd had Samwise in his sights for about a quarter of that time. He'd made a promise not to murder any more Mistborn, but promises didn't hold much water in war. And that's what this was, now. Officially. He hadn't taken his shot. So he supposed he kept his promise. He'd lived in Luthadel for a few years. He'd only met a few Mistborn. He'd killed at least two. Three, if you counted Bartleby. They tended to be similar. Convinced that they were the closest thing to Preservation on earth, especially now that the Lord Ruler was dead. Murph didn't have much sympathy for those who declared themselves rulers or gods. Not the Lord Ruler, not this Emperor and Empress, not any Mistborn who thought that being untouchable by metal made them untouchable by anything. Except glass bolts, Murph tended to find. Glass bolts and surprise. Mistborn with atium were nearly untouchable by anything, but even the Lord Ruler couldn't burn atium indefinitely. And as Aarne had showed him once, atium couldn't save you from everything. But Tyrian Falls had a lead now. And were at war. Murph's skills were needed elsewhere. He ignored his aching back and kept whittling a set of crossbow bolts. Tomorrow he'd try and find a crew for his ballista. From there... would have to lie in wait once more. Perhaps Verbosity would take up the bow. Two notes: I think Elephant will be filter-killed at the end of D4, so make of that what you will. Also, I'm very busy before rollover and won't be sure if I'll be available. Will have to wait and see.

There is more to the art of Going Dingo than just going inactive >>

In my opinion, that gives me a V!Read of Kangaroo, if only because it means they leaned more towards voting still-unknown-alignments instead of Heron, who we now know is a Villager. Probably not E/E with Vulture or Albatross to a lesser degree. Unless they're our Soother. @Amber Vulture, you've been around recently, probably enough to know you've survived. Any thoughts?

Beagle, Zebra, Iguana, if one of you saved Vulture you should speak up sooner than later. Also: that’s Smoker #4. LG74 had two Spiked Seekers, don’t go wild on claims now that one’s gone down to inactivity/luck.

Good luck GMs

Vote Tally Amber Vulture (6): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron, Opal Lion, Pearl Chameleon, Salmon Meerkat, Amethyst Scorpion Mint Heron (3): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Quartz Zebra Magenta Albatross (1): Chartreuse Penguin Magestar (1): Sage Kangaroo Mauve Crocodile (1): Saffron Iguana Pearl Chameleon (1): Coral Swan Oh dear Please no 2-minute-flashwagons

All in favor of not having a four-way tie?

I think the Kangaroo train faded, but here's Tallybot, trust it at your peril Vote Tally Amber Vulture (3): Fuchsia Ostrich, Mint Heron, Salmon Meerkat Magenta Albatross (3): Amethyst Scorpion, Chartreuse Penguin, Opal Lion Mint Heron (3): Amber Vulture, Oxblood Beagle, Quartz Zebra Pearl Chameleon (3): Coral Swan, Pearl Chameleon, Sage Kangaroo Mauve Crocodile (1): Saffron Iguana

I think Heron is down to 3, but Tallybot isn't tracking votes on Kangaroo (unless they're all gone now? Idk)

Because I don't particularly E!read either Vulture or you. Maybe that's just because I spent so long on Cham. But, maybe it's not. And Albatross has done more than, say, Elephant. (Or Crocodile, from what I remember.)

Huh. I expected someone to ask, just not necessarily you. Albatross has been around some, but hasn't contributed anything to the current discussion or voted. Then Scorpion moves their vote to them and says something about wanting Vulture to die but not vote on them. Then as soon as I vote Albatross, they're there viewing the thread. Seems a better semi-random-exe than Kangaroo to me. But I can move my vote back to you, if you want.

Hmm. Heron Albatross Ping me if things get too chaotic from that. Edit: and there's Albatross, right on schedule. Interesting.

I think I'm getting Ostrich and Zebra confused. Somehow.

That's what I meant about the paradox, unfortunately... also Elephant is unlikely to actually appear from pressure. What's your opinion on the Kangaroo case / train? Or whenever you get back from a walk.

Ah. Missed that. Still a little weird, especially if the Soother was presumably testing their coppercloud… hmm. Any opinion on Elephant?

Fair point. From that list, Sapphire Elephant I think is an interesting push. They had up to 3 votes D1, and if Chameleon is Village then they essentially only had Villagers vote on them. Alternatively, Coral Swan claimed Smoker and then had their vote canceled. Which means they either actively decided to turn their Coppercloud off for D1, or they're not actually a Smoker. @Magenta Albatross, got a vote for us?

Honestly, I'm running out of analysis time to find another option. Have too many things I need to do today. That and there's a bit of a resistance paradox. Too long without resistance, Villagers get antsy and create a side train, suddenly that's resistance and other Villagers lock down. See the sudden Kangaroo push. I'm not terribly suspicious of Heron but I'd also rather kill Heron than Cham or some other train that assembles itself out of nowhere with little reasoning. At least for now. I think if we try and 1-for-1 each other, we're both going to be rather disappointed. I'm not an Elim. I know that means approximately nothing to just say, but I don't see what you're seeing with me being Elim, and it seems like most other players aren't either. I just wanted something to make sense as to what was happening, with limited time to do so. I'm probably going to be away for the next hour or so, then I'll look back and either try and figure a third option out or just write Murph again.

If the point was to get NK'd, why spend so many posts declaring me an Elim? And why break from the gambit? There weren't really that many votes on you, and to be perfectly honest I might have bailed as soon as I saw Scorpion and Meerkat just up and decide to follow me. Yes, there is no Seeker. I think (I hope) everyone's on the same page of that by now. Just the way you phrased things after you claimed Thug and claimed no Seeker... I don't know why you asked if anyone could prove a Seeker existed. I think I'm on the opinion that this was a poorly-executed but probably Village gambit. Where that goes from here, I don't know. But probably not here. NGL I think this is the other reason I can't ID Chameleon... @Quartz Zebra - just asking, can you confirm that your Mistborn contact is not either Chameleon or Heron?

Chameleon Heron Besides Chameleon, no one's really tried to detract from Heron's exe, which makes me a little nervous. But I'm not sure where else to go.

I've known a few people to do that, idk. And also I try not to use find specific players in AGs, generally. With a few exceptions. (Hi Mouse!) Whoever took a shot at Amber Vulture, if you want to PM me, that'd be nice for painting a better picture of what happened this cycle, but it's up to you.

I know you knew, I'm just more curious if that post was meant to be in context of assisting the gambit (ie playing up your suspicions to see if anyone else took the bait of a Cham exe) vs just being suspicious. Which I think this answers but just double checking. And I'll echo Iguana that playing anti-village is... not great imo. Especially when it's an Anon game and I have entirely no clue who Chameleon is. Trying to figure out if I'm still E!Reading them.

Okay. Many things. Getting to the gambit when it gets to there in thread-time. Really don't like the sheeping of my vote here. Or here. Also, asking for the Seeker... not entirely sure how to read that, but not something entirely Village I suspect. ... or here. Self-voting is a weird meta: I can see it when you legitimately want the Village to have your flip, or when you'd rather just be exed and be done with the game, or mostly some combination of the two. None of those really combine with "Green-Scanned Village Mistborn". I don't know what's going through Chameleon's head here, though, so idk. (Also, you're not technically supposed to edit in votes, but with the new merge changes idk how that works.) (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 1) Scorpion moves of Chameleon almost immediately. I don't even know. Plus, we have the insane logic of: 3 smokers ≠ 3 mistborn (false) Vulture got shot by e!mistborn!chameleon who had a stroke one day and decided to put himself in thread and therefore vulture's also an Elim if chameleon is. (False) Somehow chameleon was connected to the trains of D2. (False, at least in my opinion) As seen below. (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 2) For reference, the "more things to perhaps come to light" was mostly me waiting on a PM response from the individual I guessed most likely to be your Seeker (REDACTED), as well as the individual I guessed most likely to have shot at Vulture (who I also concluded was Heron). 3 Smokers don't interact with 3 Mistborn, 3 Smokers interact with the Seeker. The Seeker interacts with the 3 Mistborn. A Village Seeker with the power to find three Village Mistborn to do things with seems way too potent to actually be a correct distro. 3 Smokers indicates a distrust of the Seeker. 3 Mistborn on its own is also powerful and distro-questioning, hence my efforts to actually locate the Third Mistborn in addition to suspecting you. Really hard for the Village to tell the difference between Mistborn 1 telling the truth about what metal they (didn't) use and Mistborn 2 existing but not saying anything, versus Mistborn 1 just lying about what metal they used. Especially right now, on D3 with four total flips. Does it make sense for that to happen? Not really. Does any other explanation make sense? Also not really. (Also, you did lie about what metal you used, technically. But more on that later.) @Salmon Meerkat, were you aware of Chameleon trying a gambit at this point / from the start? Or otherwise why did you say this? Also confused by the /j accompanying a very real vote, but that might just be a tone thing. (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 3) @Quartz Zebra, curious how much you stand by this now post-gambit. I think Beagle responded to these points as well, but I might as well if I'm going through everything. This depends what you think. If you think that there's an Elim between you and the Seeker, then the Seeker is the Elim. So, out the Seeker (either in thread or in PMs with those you trust). But IMO, a Seeker who you don't initially trust, doesn't tell you who they scanned C1, and then conveniently scanned the C1 Spiked kill isn't trustworthy. As Beagle mentioned, E!Chameleon means you're lying about the Seeker, and using it as some way to justify your claim as the third Mistborn. E!Seekers can play essentially two ways: work to identify good NKs for the Elim team, or pretend to be V!Seekers and assemble a tainted trust circle. The first won't claim at all, or won't claim without an NK following soon, and will also tend to not mistakenly create a true trust circle (perhaps by not having prior scan data). The second is more on gut. You've asked both why E!Chameleon and V!Chameleon would claim in thread, and are asking Beagle why V!Chameleon would undergo the actions that ostensibly-V!Chameleon is actively undergoing. I am confused. (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 4) "We" mostly referenced the thread, which shifted tracks from mostly discussing Heron and Vulture to discussing Chameleon and a Seeker. (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 5) Why say you have evidence and wait for someone to ask in order to present it? (Penguin Is Elim Counter: I'm counting this one double. Because... I'm really questioning what the purpose of it is. You tag half of the player list, including two players under inactivity warnings, to get them to try and vote me? All before presenting the evidence you alluded to previously? When, if the votes seem to be where they are, neither of us are actually leading and Heron is? Why? I don't even know if I E!Read this, because I don't even know if an Elim would be so bold as to do it. @Amethyst Scorpion, curious how much you stand by this post-gambit. (Penguin Is Elim Counter: 9) And there we go. Cham, if you're a Village Mistborn who rolled Thug today, this might be one of the the most hilariously effective plays of AG history! And I mean that sincerely. Double-switcheroos are great. Outside of that, I don't know what to believe. "Reaction Tests" are weird. Part of SE, IMO, is about reading the reactions of playing the game. Thus the entire thread is a reaction test. I'm a bit curious what the point of this one was, though. Was it to find who bought it, and who didn't? Or who was hedging their bets with the fake-claim and who wasn't? Or was it just a reaction test for the sake of doing a reaction test? Take AG8. A certain Kasimir (Meerkat, then) used a Tineye message to fake being Elim Scanned by a nonexistent Seeker. The point of that one wasn't to figure out who suspected Meerkat, the point was to figure out who didn't or who was hedging their belief, because the Elim team would clearly know that Meerkat wasn't an Elim and that they didn't send that Tineye message. And it worked, to a fairly strong degree - both in the thread at that point, and post-game when his fancy chart was mapped to the actual Elim team. So with this one, what exactly were you looking for? Because, in addition to all the "Penguin Is Elim" posts, the thing I'm noticing is there's a lot of people who knew about this gambit ahead of time. Scorpion, Iguana, and Zebra all were told directly. Meerkat and Ostrich seem to know Mouse was planning something similar to happen. There were probably more, I haven't checked much beyond that and this post is getting long enough anyways. But if there's one Elim in that group somewhere, then the Elim team knew about the test the entire time, and you need to look at who's reacting accordingly. (As a note, I didn't know about this gambit. In case that's not obvious by my posts, @Sage Kangaroo can hopefully back up that I was looking for the Wild Goose of a Seeker claim that you made, in an effort to make some sense of what was happening.) Other points: I'm really confused by how much you continue to defend or focus on the Seeker you say doesn't actually exist. The evidence we have of the Seeker's existence is that you told us. And the argument of "why would e!Cham do this" is odd to continue as well without a reason for why v!Cham does this. But there's two more pages I haven't even looked at and this is long enough as it is.