Chartreuse Penguin

Because I can't resist how our Newest Dingo is playing this - I feel like for E!me, Lion would still make sense as a hit. Lion's the one person we knew wasn't our missing Smoker, so it doesn't clamp down on that so much. Being a Smoker vs, say, Lurcher does change the calculus on how scary endgame vote manip is, but it's still scary, even if only from a meta and not practical perspective - but even more scary if the real Elim is Mistborn instead. But I do agree, NKA is less of a functional thing here. Now it's just going down a list and seeing where things deviate. Although I/we should go back, might be able to get something from earlier. I do think at least one of the active Elims was a crafty type. Hitting active-but-not-Mouse first, letting Mouse draw a Lurch, then killing Mouse the next cycle... well, I've seen plenty of teams not do that. But, my personal (not identity, necessarily, just playstyle/tone) read of Vulture or Albatross could fit that too. (Could also fit Beagle, Kangaroo, or maybe Scorpion. Chameleon, not so much. Me, also not so much, but... that strategy has had a mixed success rate ) I was smoking Ostrich, then. I mostly trusted them by N2. Mostly the PM was because I knew one vote manip had gone through a partially-smoked exe, and I was worried it could be a concerted effort. Coppercloud's never been on Meerkat at all. It has been on you, but per the rules you can still Riot a vote onto a Smoked player, and I'm pretty sure it wasn't on you that cycle anyway.

Yeah, that's what I was expecting. Rather annoying, though. If everyone's telling the truth, that's the last power role. Me a Smoker, Chameleon a Thug, and then 3 Vanillas. But, thanks to Smoked Salmon, clearly not everyone is telling the truth. Whether that's me the claimed Smoker, or one of you four who hid their Smoker/Mistborn role, or something else. (I'm also assuming the V!Swan and V!Lion weren't lying about their actions... hopefully that isn't an issue.) That's the trick, then. Scorpion and Beagle - these two have been Village read for most of the game, aside from some smaller pushes. They're also going to be real annoying to tell apart without a re-read. Chameleon - technically, we could solve that now. E!Chameleon is presumably a Smoker or Mistborn instead of a Thug, so they'd die to the exe as normal, while V!Chameleon would stay alive. Issue with that is, V!Chameleon is pretty useful as a Thug and an issue that a solo elim will have to deal with eventually unless they want to try and win an extra coin toss (speaking from experience of Dingo vs Penguin back in AG8). But that becomes nothing if we lose our nerve and exe Chameleon early - and Cham would probably be NKed right after. Sage Kangaroo - first in the PoE. Similar situation as Albatross, and just difficult to read at the point of the game where that's suspicious on its own. I do want to go back to look at things, but for now, I'm fine voting here. Chartreuse Penguin - and then there's me. The claimed Smoker when there's a unknown Smoker and the simplest explanation is that I just lied about who I was Smoking. This is gonna be fun. I don't know why E!me would lie about it only to have V!Meerkat cut in line at the PoE in front of Kangaroo, but I also don't know why an E!Smoker would be on Meerkat in the first place. Although, on the plus side, I don't think I'm getting NKed by the real Elim Smoker anytime soon.

I have concerns. But not about Chameleon, specifically. I think. Just at this point, don't think I can trust anyone.

Well. That's annoying. And then there were six. Not sure if Pearl is clear, or if that's just going to be a headache. No one's really clear anymore. IMO, stick with the same plan, go for Kangaroo next cycle unless anything drastic changes.

Seems like there’s a difference between Smoker-Smoking and Mistborn-Smoking, then. Or something. Trying to parse clarification answers I got. A Smoker’s default state is Smoking themselves, a Mistborn’s seems to be not. Edit: I think the possibilities are these: E!Smoker Meerkat who left their coppercloud on E!Smoker among (Scorpion/Beagle/Chameleon/Kangaroo) who was smoking E!Meerkat E!Smoker among (Scorpion/Beagle/Chameleon/Kangaroo) who was smoking V!Meerkat E!Penguin who was smoking E!Meerkat and lied about it E!Penguin who was smoking V!Meerkat and lied about it I can safely rule out the last two, and think there's a decent argument for you all to too, if only for "E!Penguin gets essentially nothing for doing so". Can maybe have a Mistborn, but clarifications seem to be suggesting otherwise. Double Edit: Okay, Mistborn would be possible if Meerkat was a Smoked Mistborn / was Smoked by a Mistborn the preceding turn (N4), and the Coppercloud sticks around the following Day (D5, when the thing happened). Which is possible, but... hmmm. Probably wouldn't make a huge difference unless they roll Thug.

Apparently, it's not. Mistborn default have it off, and you only get the special action to turn on or off on D1, not other turns. So a Mistborn can only Smoke during the day if they roll Smoker->Smoker. Which isn't how I thought it worked, and now I'm trying to figure out if my Coppercloud's on or not. It was never near Meerkat, but would be nice to know where it actually is...

I don’t know, an opportunity to get Meerkat exed before Kangaroo? But it still would need info on Rioter!Swan. Apparently Mistborn and Copper and Day turns mix poorly, so perhaps not.

Elim Thug can be dangerous the same reason a Village Thug can be - in endgames, like this, when the Village is really counting on their exe going through successfully, only for them to survive and mess up the counts. Especially if there's enough nebulousness that the Elims can bus their own Thug instead of having to full commit towards a come-from-behind hammer. Plus... don't have any stats on this, but I'd wager that decently often an early-game Thug exe will get themselves more than just a cycle of life. E!Seeker is dangerous, obviously. And E!Rioter... Rioters vs Soothers is weird. Rioters can pull off bigger swings if they leverage themselves right, but can also expose themselves much more easily than a Soother can. Rioter's probably stronger in my mind thanks to LG74-Rioter-Smoker-rules-shenanigans, but they're about the same. And Vote Manip's a good deal stronger in the hands of the informed Elim team. TL:DR, Tyrian is actually pretty balanced, what do ya know. Except Smokers, they only affect other roles and so they get the short end of the stick. Or do until E!Seekers and E!Rioters make the Village go running for their Copperclouds again. Pretty sure it's just the one left. E!Thug isn't quite an extra Elim, but it's pretty close. And we only started with 25 players. AG8 and AG9 had five elims with 26 and 23, respectively.

Not sure what E!me gets out of lying about Smoking Meerkat, unless I'm teamed with Kangaroo somehow. But I don't know what's going on this game anyway.

4 Years Ago "This will be so much easier if you all simply cooperate," the Inquisitor said. Murph didn't move. The Reserve Guard had been assembled in a line in the keep grounds. In front of them were four individuals. One was Captain Hart, who'd stepped forward when asked. The Inquisitor was the second, standing just to the side of Willam Erikell. Lord Willam, as the brat so desperately insisted they call him. He was Lord Tarries' nephew, and looked ever so pleased with himself and with the situation he'd undoubtedly had his conspirators devise. Lord Tarries Erikell was the fourth figure. He was hanging by a hook through his throat. "These are all of your soldiers?" the Inquisitor asked, voice grating but deceptively calm. "Yes, sir," Hart replied. "All the ones under my command." "Hmmm," the Inquisitor said, scanning the assembly. Murph couldn't meet the eyes of anyone, much less those steel circles. "And they are all Allomancers?" Captain Hart paused, looking to Lord Tarries' corpse as if for permission before quickly switching to Willam, then the Steel Inquisitor. "No, sir. Benthe and Harmon are trainers, skilled fighters but no abilities. But most are Mistings, yes." "And you?" "Yes, sir. Rioter, sir. Helps keep the troops in line. Sir." The Inquisitor's face didn't budge. "Hmmm. Very well. Do not speak again until addressed." Captain Hart choked down what was clearly going to be another yes-sir and instead gave a quick salute. The Inquisitor turned to Murph and the guard. "I understand that Willam Erikell may not have informed you on what has occurred. I will enlighten you. There are many Mistings in the guard of House Erikell, a fact that has been noticed by many. By the other Houses, as you may have seen from increasing concern from the other noble houses. By Willam Erikell, one more inclined to search for a reason, perhaps. And by the Steel Ministry. By me." "Tarries Erikell has been judged and found guilty of abuse of Allomancy. He has located, harbored, and employed Mistings from among the skaa instead of reporting them as mandatory. He has been sentenced accordingly. But, there are still skaa among you all." No one said a word, for a moment. Willam looked very pleased indeed. An obligator handed the Inquisitor a small sheet of metal. A few other guards - members of the Ministry - filtered in through the gates. "Where is Seidre? The Tineye?" the Inquisitor said, as if it was the simplest deal in the world. "She-" "I thought I told you not to speak," the Inquisitor said to Hart, barely missing a beat before turning to the Reserves. "Where is Seidre?" No one said anything, and the Ministry guards began to move their hands towards scabbards. "She died. Six months ago," Murph said, voice heavy. He still couldn't meet the Inquisitors eye-spikes. "During one of the attacks on the keep. Sir," he hastily added. The Inquisitor stepped forward. "Hmmm. And you are?" "Murph. Sir. Master Archer, although our archers are... it's a title, little more. My father is in the Lord Ruler's army. My mother owns a shop in the Northern District." "Hmmm. You knew Seidre?" "Yes sir." "Well?" There was a lot in that simple question. Murph had no idea if Seidre was a skaa. They'd worked together. A Tineye as a sniper was useful, and a Smoker to hide the Tineye was a good foil to prevent detection. But he did know Seidre didn't trust him with everything. He didn't exactly put on a trustworthy disposition - trained to fill people with crossbow bolts didn't support that. But he knew Seidre sometimes talked in private with other members of the guard... members like... Murph banished that thought. "We fought together. No more." The Inquisitor seemed to ponder that, not even giving a grunt. He stared at Murph's face with those steel-filled sockets. Murph didn't move. He had forgotten to say Sir, but it was too late now. Other things were happening in the background - at least one Reserve had been grabbed by the obligators, and a few were being looked at. Willum had taken a pale look, and the Inquisitor's hand gently rested on their shoulder, still staring at Murph. "You killed Arnam Tekiel, did you not?" Murph flinched. That wasn't what he was expecting. "I... I've killed a lot of people, sir. For most of them I didn't know their name." The Inquisitor looked almost amused. "The Mistborn who attacked you, last year." "Ah. Yes, I did." "And you are a Misting yourself, yes?" If Murph could still read expressions on an eyeless face, the Inquisitor seemed almost... hungry. "Yes. Smoker, sir." The interest vanished from the Inquisitor's expression. "Hmmm. I imagine the Steel Ministry will have more words for you all. But I have more important things to oversee." He turned to leave. "Aren't you going to announce-" started Willum. There was a crack, and then the would-be House Lord fell to the ground, crutching his collarbone where the Inquisitor's hand had lay. That hand was now a fist. "No, I think not," he said simply, and walked away, a contingent of obligators and doomed Allomancers behind him. Murph and the others were left to see what was left of House Erikell.

o7, Zebra. Okay. Now becomes the interesting game of does-Croc-show-up-again. Or, for now, we go after one of Kangaroo or Meerkat.

Well I was writing RP and then forgot I need to eat food

Something else: it could also be another Smoker who happened to target Meerkat. I didn’t want to say that immediately in case Meerkat didn’t notice, but it might be not Meerkat. I think it’s more likely to be Meerkat, though - I don’t know why an Elim Smoker would be tossing around Copperclouds when they knew they could get uncovered between me, Smoker!Swan, and Lion. Honestly E!Mistborn!Meerkat would explain most of it. Swan dying to clear things up would help, though I suspect less and less that they’re going to flip Elim. A Kangaroo or Meerkat shot could be informative, though it becomes risky to get too wide in a search.

If Croc dodges the filter again, definitely press them on that, but we shouldn't tee up an exe on a player who would die that turn anyway. If we even get that far. Early Smoker claims have definitely gone... interestingly, in the past.

I... still think Swan for the NK. Depends what Meerkat has to say though. That leaves Kangaroo and Crocodile, and Crocodile's due to die at the end of D6, I think.

You could have Rioted Crocodile to a No Vote, I guess But... why

Actually, this might end up super convenient for us. We know that there should only be one, maaaaybe two, Elims left. If Swan is lying, then Swan's lying and an Elim. If Swan's not lying, and the Vote Count is correct, then Meerkat has been sitting on Smoker Claim Number Five for the entire game, and I'd really like to know why they claimed Vanilla instead. Or they're a Mistborn. Restrings crossbow with malicious intent

To clarify: No action? There was a bit of discussion on proving Swan was a Smoker (which I am now going to reread because... what is this).

... I wasn't Smoking Meerkat. ... @Salmon Meerkat, you got an explanation here?

... and you're mentioning this now Ooookay. Not a Mistborn claim so I don't need to panic. Who did you try and Riot and when?

Uh Where’s your vote, Swan

For reference, that was in the middle of my post here: The vote and unvote were in the same post. It was an attempt at a joke, perhaps a not very effective one.

Good old Process of Elimination. Great way for the Village to win games, great way for the Village to run over a bunch of other Villagers with a tractor on the way there. Just how it goes. I think this is mostly echoing what's been said before, but it's helpful to nail down my own thoughts on these. Lock Village - Quartz Zebra. No way this distro has an E!Coinshot, especially one that double taps their own active Thug, doesn't shoot N1, and so much more. Also probably has an expiration date. Near-Lock Village - Amethyst Scorpion, Opal Lion, Oxblood Beagle. Not great at reading Lion but they've seemed village and helpful for most of the game, and an E!Soother would also be a distro surprise. Scorpion and Beagle have also proven to be activity drivers and had many chances to do more Elim-y things. Those Two - Chartreuse Penguin, Pearl Chameleon. Not going to get into a huge post why me or my tunnel-mate are closer to Village, but I think we're generally trusted. Mostly. Ish. Rolewise, Chameleon is useful because an endgame V!Thug is very hard to deal with, and a Smoker... would be helpful against surprise vote manip, maybe. If it does end up in a 1v1 between us, though... smh. The Usual Suspects - Mauve Crocodile, Sage Kangaroo, Salmon Meerkat. Unless something drastic changes, these are probably who we're going to be sorting through on D6. They're all pretty different. Mauve hasn't posted since early D5 and has posted... seven times total. Kangaroo has been more engaged, but more in volume than actual depth of contribution to things. And Meerkat's been around a lot. IMO, I'd say go for Kangaroo first, but don't have a solid reason for that - mostly that an E!Crocodile distro would hopefully be noted as an inactivity trap, and Meerkat hasn't fallen into some of the Elim pitfalls that others perhaps have. Current Targets - Coral Swan, Magenta Albatross. Albatross has been weirdly active but non-committal, similarly to Kangaroo but on a larger scale. Same with Swan. Weirdly, very different reactions between the two of them to getting pushed. I'm not a huge fan of the arguments Swan's been making, but I've made similar before so that might just be a reinforcement bias. Anyone could probably move up or down one slot pretty easily, except probably Zebra or Lion. But we do need to solve those lower slots, and the Elims have been so inactive or in-engaging that traditional analysis seems like it would be a waste of time. I think real!Dingo and Tuatara basically only interacted with Iguana, and that didn't end well for us. (Not saying don't try, just... I might not try. Also college is back so my time is much shorter.)

Swan’s a fine shot by me. There’s some bits of a reason to be cautious of Beagle, but they’ve been trustworthy so far and actively engaging so far. Plus, I think for now the Elim Kill can really only narrow things down. Maybe Zebra is the only hyper-expected shot. (Which is why the secret third Mistborn claim is Lurching them tonight… I wish. Actually I don’t, my brain would explode.) Was hoping to write RP today but a bit drained. Will probably tomorrow.

There is more to my E!meta than being inactive smh