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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Since we did post at similar times, there exists the possibility that you got confirmation that your teammate Drought was evil and could be proven evil, then decided to sit on it to be sure that the lynch wouldn't swing to Shqueeves. Once you were sure that Drought was doomed, you turned on him. This is exactly why you as an elim might not have killed Arinian. Since Joe was up for the lynch, it seems reasonable to assume that he was the one to put in the kill, thus making the scan useless. By leaving Arinian alive for one more cycle, you could try to clear yourself. I have to go now, but I'll be on later to look through your posts again. For now, Monster.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @Arinian Who were you watching the nights Shqueeves and Ripple were killed?
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @MonsterMetroid While I don't have time to address all your points, I will note that I have a tendency to couch my posts in uncertainty. Here are examples from two previous games. " I'm not a fan of assuming that there are three elims left, but it does seem reasonable to suppose that there are at least two remaining, and that only one of them is BR or Monster. That means that at least one of Caesura, Steeldancer, and me is evil. As the counter-lynch on C1 to save Steeldancer came mostly from confirmed non-elims and his vote on me did not seem to be coordinated, I trust him more than Caesura." "If there was another village snoop, they probably would have targeted me by now, as they've had 3 nights to do so. I'm okay with this plan. I doubt the elims thought I was in contact with a snoop, as PMs are only open at night and I don't get my scan results until after the night is over. Ornstein and livinglegend haven't posted, so they can't take any actions even if they are elims." And yes @BrightnessRadiant, Monster did vote about 11 minutes before I did, which I consider to be roughly the same time as I had started writing my post before Monster finished voting.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Monster-Thank you for explaining your suspicions. Brightness-Thank you for removing your vote on me. 20 minutes left in cycle. Vote Tally Joe(4) Ripple, Arinian, Devotary, Brightness Devotary(2) Monster, Joe Monster(1) Ecthelion I see that Ripple has come online. What do you think of the situation?
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @Ecthelion III Shqueeves was murdered last night, so it seems like the eliminators do have a night kill. @BrightnessRadiant-you have already explained why you are voting on me, but I would appreciate it if you would comment on my previous post. @MonsterMetroid-I'd like to know why you are voting on me. Your post makes it sound like you think I'm confirmed evil. What evidence do you have to support that? @A Joe in the Bush-I don't really expect you to change your mind seeing as you're currently tied with me for votes, but can you at least justify your self-preservation with more than a bandwagon vote?
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I can't quote anything from locked threads, so just pretend that everything in " " quotations is inside a quote box. Page numbers are in parenthesis if you want to go find the original post. Bolded sections were added by me. If someone could tell me a better way to do this, that would be appreciated. You also voted on Shqueeves cycle 2. Devotary (3)- Livinglegend, Lopen, MonsterShqueeves (2)- Brightness, Devotary, Coop In response to: Lopen expressed suspicion of me in cycle 2:(pg9) "Anyways, I'm voting for [Devotary] because I feel like he's in that category of posting and being active but not drawing any attention that eliminators often fit into. (Also he totally ninja'd me with that list of who hasn't voted yet >>)" and Cycle 3:(pg11) "It's also partly your tone, in that everything you say seems measured. In my experience, eliminators are usually the ones who are extra careful with their wording, whereas villagers often just post their thoughts without thinking about what might or might not look suspicious. If you posted more of a stream of thought post or got involved in a back and forth where your responses were only a few minutes after the most recent posts, I'd have less reason to suspect you of calculating your posts so as not to draw suspicion." (This post probably isn't helping) And in the same post(pg11): "Another reason why I'm voting on Devotary is that I suspect that most of the players we've been focusing on so far(Mac, Shqueeves, you, Monster) are village, so I'm trying to make sure we don't let anyone just stay in the background of discussion and quietly make their way through the entire game" Monster voted on me cycle 2:(pg10) "Tings do move quick for Roid to understand but he tink the Lopen is right that [Devotary] say tings, and dont say other tings, to blend in like drab to awakener." Roid nodded "He also was watching with his finger til the very minute final decision made" " And said this cycle 3:(pg11) " "Roid been in army with Fahmxa(devotary) time before, Roid forget that Fam'exa not talk much, but now Fah" Roid paused his eyes showing concentration "mexa? Now it give Roid the tingles on back of neck, like Roid being watched but not seeing person watching." " Livinglegend voted on me cycle 2 for:(pg10) "I've got a slight elim read and I think it's just because I disagree with you on the use of awakeners. I understand your argument that eliminators might want the awakeners to claim so as to kill them quickly, but if we never end up asking the awakeners, we miss out on a lot of valuable information." I'm better at determining who the villagers are than who the eliminators are. For example, in this game I'm far more confident in my village reads of you, Monster, and Arinian than in my eliminator reads of either Ripple or Ecthelion.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Vote tally: Joe(5) Ripple, Arinian, BR, Devotary, Monster Not yet voted: @A Joe in the Bush-feel free to not vote, and @Ecthelion III-Please do if you're a villager Just because the Joe lynch is essentially solidified doesn't mean we should abandon discussion for the entire cycle, @BrightnessRadiant, @MonsterMetroid, @Arinian, @RippleGylf.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Who do you mean by 'him'? Either way, I don't see how this plan would work. No matter what Coop said, Shqueeves, had he been evil, would have found it very easy to lie, which makes me think that you meant Drought asked Coop. In that case, knowing that Drought is evil, the main possibilities are 1.Coop answered honestly even though he almost certainly knew Drought was evil, 2.Drought made an extremely lucky guess, 3.You told Drought what the correct answer was, and 4.The entire plan was a lie. Either 1 or 2 would clear you, while 3 or 4 would mean that you are evil. Since Coop is a confirmed villager and the chances of randomly guessing are low, I will place my vote on you, Joe. Correct me if I'm wrong, @BrightnessRadiant, but I think she's just saying that our numerical advantage didn't increase. If there were three more villagers than eliminators, then there are still three more villagers than eliminators. If you have any questions, feel free to ask me in thread or in a PM. Among the dead, we've seen two captains and two Awakeners, but only one sentry. @MonsterMetroid and @Ecthelion III, neither of you have checked in yet. Any chance one of you was alert enough to see who killed Shqueeves?
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The vote has really swung towards Drought in the last few hours. Shqueeves and Drought appear to be making the exact same accusations against each other, merely substituting one name for the other. I do see a couple of points in Shqueeves's favor. As BR pointed out, while Worldhopper was not a secret role in the AG, from the signup thread: Worldhoppers: Each Worldhopper will have the use of one random Radiant’s powers each night, with a higher likelihood of receiving use of a power which they have not yet had. , it is more likely that Drought would claim to be such a role, given that he played for the entirety of AG4. Here Drought appears to be saying that the lynch on Shqueeves would provide information on everyone else's alignment, and then immediately suggests we discount that information in favor of lynching Drought's suggested targets. This reads like Drought already knows everyone's alignment, for which the main explanation is that he's an elim. Your first post this cycle was eight hours after rollover, enough time for you to gather additional information from the dead. If you truly believed Shqueeves wasn't a consistent Awakener, I don't think you would have felt the need to post first at all costs. Points against Shqueeves While I don't know much about Drought as a person, feeling so bad about lying to villagers that he's willing to confess is an unusual trait for elims. Combined with this shortly after a suggested way for Drought to prove he had consistent access to the dead doc, seemed like you were trying to prevent us using the dead doc to tell which one of you is lying. Since Drought later stated that you do in fact have doc access this cycle, this point is a lot less pertinent. Overall, I think it's more likely that Drought is our elim. Vote Count: Drought(6): Shqueeves, Ripple, Arinian, Brightness, Monster, Devotary Shqueeves(1): Drought Not yet voted: @Ecthelion III and @A Joe in the Bush
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Even if that's all it does, we'll at least know that trying to decide which one of you is the real Awakener is useless and allow us to move on to more conventional analysis.
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I gave most of my reasoning last cycle, but mostly it was that I had thought that the double removal of Coop's vote meant that either Coop and a village captain had been in contact, or that the captain had reason to suspect Coop. When Coop said that he didn't in fact know who the captain was, it made me think the latter option was more likely. I also found his closing statements where he said he would come up with analysis next cycle if we let him live one more cycle to be suspicious, because of the necromancy mechanic of the game means that he could share his ideas after his death. I'd like to prove conclusively that both Shqueeves and Drought currently have access to the dead doc, because while Shqueeves has retracted his assertion that Drought is a Returned, Drought is still claiming that Shqueeves is a Returned without access to the dead doc. Since Lopen is currently here and he established a wide PM network while still alive, I propose that Lopen post a list of words for both Shqueeves and Drought to post in thread. These words would ideally be unguessable and come from PMs that Lopen has sent to currently living players that he believes are villagers. When Shqueeves and Drought post their list along with the associated player, in the form Player-PM#-Word Number-Word, the players would then confirm the word. As long as at least at least one of the players on the list is a villager, this should be able to confirm whether Shqueeves and/or Drought has access to the dead doc this cycle. What do people think of this plan, especially @TheMightyLopen, @Shqueeves, and @Droughtbringer? EDIT: Looks like Monster posted the plan before I could. This should either prove that Shquevees or Drought is guilty, or confirm that both players have access to the dead doc and thus any information from the dead is suspect until the evil one is killed.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I think that might actually work, because Elenion took over for Shqueeves in the AG. Elenion should know exactly what day he received access to the Fuchia Ostrich account, and he can post that answer in the dead doc. If Drought correctly guesses the day, it’s likely that Drought is in fact a real Awakener.
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    As far as I can tell, both Drought and Shqueeves are accusing the other of being elim Returned, a role that cycles through all three common roles.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Elenion did not vote for me. From cycle 2: Straw (4)- Joe, Elenion, Shqueeves, MacDevotary (3)- Livinglegend, Lopen, Monster I voted for Ecthelion today because he voted on Lopen wanting to hear Lopen's reasoning for voting on Elenion, but then after Lopen responded Ecthelion never removed his vote or even acknowledged Lopen's response, despite posting later in the cycle. @Coop772, you're the best lead I have at the moment, and we can't afford to split the vote and allow the elims to manipulate the lynch. If you are a villager, you can share your analysis with any village Awakeners tomorrow, especially as Drake's ruling makes it unlikely that we'll lose tonight unless the elim team has five members and you're not one of them.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Okay Ecthelion, thank you for responding. It's interesting that you're accusing Arinian partially for being involved in Lopen's death when you also participated in his lynch, but you are correct in saying that the time for making votes purely to stay alive is over. As Bort hasn't voted yet today and assuming he wasn't lying for whatever reason about his timezone, it's 4 in the morning for him and thus he's likely going to be inactivity killed. Monster hasn't been online for 18 hours and Ripple for 10, but they've both been online for rollover before so they still have a chance to make it. There's no point in voting for any of them until they come online, even if they were elims. If all three of them die and are villagers, we could lose tonight if there are five eliminators. Since we're so close to losing, I think it might be time to ask for some help. Shqueeves, you have said you were in contact with an Awakener. Do our dead friends have any opinion as to who we should lynch? Until/unless @Shqueeves responds, I will put my vote on Coop. You've said: Last cycle, you also said "I am not a captain, and you (anyone) can scan me if you don’t believe me (not sure if that would prove it, but it couldn’t hurt)." If you neither are a captain, nor know a captain, why did you get targeted twice in a row? Since the main thing the captain has done so far other than remove your vote has been the attempt to save a villager(Lopen) from dying, I'm inclined to believe that the captain is a villager. This makes me think that you're either lying about knowing the captain's identity, or a villager has reason to suspect you. Feel free to correct any errors I made in this analysis, @Coop772. EDIT: Welcome back Monster. Glad to see you beat the filter.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    When links fail, use copy/paste! The vote tally in Coop's first post has been removed. I think this was what BR was referring to, from page 11 of the main thread. Also note that I am not currently voting on Drought. "I can now confidently vouch for mac, I would say 90% sure he is village. I will vote Drought for 2 reasons: 1 b/c I don't want to die 2 several people have expressed suspicion for drought, and I am one of those. He has not, however, done anything about it, instead voting Shqueeves for reasons that seem kind of fishy to me and saying not much else w/ lots of words." And this "I do. I have been in deep PM conversation with him, and I do know more than most. Unfortunately, I am unsure if I should divulge more out in the open w/out his okI can say that lynching him would be a mistake" Livinglegend was a sentry, and last cycle Shqueeves claimed to be in contact with an Awakener.
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We've lynched active players for four cycles now, and have nothing to show for it except six dead villagers and a greatly deflated post count. I think it might be time to focus on the barely actives, who show up once or twice per cycle to throw in a vote. While this label could be applied to most of the remaining players, including me, the players that have consistently posted infrequently are Bort, Ecthelion, and Ripple Gylf . Since Bort has already posted today and Ripple had been more active in previous cycles, I will place my vote on Ecthelion, who last cycle abandoned his earlier motive of 'do no harm' to vote on the player with the most votes. The other consideration is that depending on the number of eliminators, a mis-lynch today could be fatal if we suffer any more inactivity kills. Make sure to vote today everyone! Hallandren spies need not apply.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    With less than half an hour left in the cycle, it doesn't look like either livinglegend or Mac are going to survive. Neither have them have posted this late in the cycle before, so I'm going to take my vote off of livinglegend, as there's no point in lynching him anymore. I'll put a temporary vote on Ripple Gylf while I look through Arinian's posts. EDIT: Looking at Arinian's posts, I'm getting a village read on him. I'e played a couple of games with him before, and he seems to be using a similar playstyle. While there are some odd things about his behavior, like his unexplained vote for Lopen this cycle, it's not enough for me to tie the lynch this late in the cycle. If you're a villager, sorry Lopen.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    All right Shqueeves. I still have to vote for someone though, but I''m not enthusiastic about the lynch on Lopen. Are you still around livinglegend @livinglegend? If so, please vote so you aren't inactivity killed. The same goes to you, @MacThorstenson.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Yesterday I said I would look at Joe and Lopen if Elenion died as a villager, so here are some observations I have made. Lopen: Claims to have voted on Len because he believed that both Mac and Arinian, and Shqueeves and Drought as well, were villagers. Has been phishing for roles and has voiced support of a universal role claim, though the tone of his posts make it sound like he's motivated more from a desire to know what is going on than a desire to find out which players should be murdered first. Says he sent a PM to Monster last cycle affirming that he trusted Monster, which I will assume is true as Monster hasn't contradicted this claim. Currently has the most votes this cycle, although this could easily change as only seven people out of fourteen have voted. Has claimed to be roleless. Mentions some sort of anomalous role that could be at various times an Awakener, sentry, or captain. Still doesn't trust me enough to send me a PM. Overall, I think that if Monster or Shqueeves is evil, Lopen probably is as well. Since we have no confirmation of either, I would hesitate to lynch Lopen this cycle. Joe: Work has apparently prevented Joe from participating for most of the cycle. Compensates by voting towards the end of cycles, followed by a post at the beginning of new cycles. All of his votes have been for players that ended up with the most votes or tied for the most votes. Of those, two of them have died. Has a lot of ideas as to why there haven't been any elim kills, but that post didn't seem to have been planned ahead of time, nor was it posted immediately after the new cycle opened up. Says in his first post this cycle that he wouldn't be on for rollover, then later puts a vote on Arinian, implying that he might change it later. Claims to not have a role. Is very defensive of Mac, and since Joe almost got Arinian killed the first cycle, it's far more likely that Joe's vote on Elenion was designed to save Mac. If Mac is evil, Joe probably is too. I don't want to make a final vote yet, but for right now, I would like to hear what Shqueeves has to say about a Worldhopper type role. Since Lopen just posted a proper vote tally, I will make the reverse vote tally with five and a half hours to go this cycle. @livinglegend, @Shqueeves, @MacThorstenson, @Ecthelion III, @Coop772, @RippleGylf, and @Droughtbringer currently do not have valid votes.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    And would Coop and Ripple die at the end of the cycle if they leave their vote on you, @Drake Marshall?
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The main reason I voted on Monster in the first place was that he had posted but not yet voted that cycle. Once he did place a vote, I (eventually) took my vote off him.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So the captain declined to intervene in the lynch, instead deciding to remove Coop’s vote again. Still going with the assumption that either Mac or Coop are captains, I would guess that this is because they missed Arinian’s switch to Mac and the subsequent Elenion hammer. Since Coop was the second vote on Drought at the time, this suggests a possible, though unlikely, elim alliance between Drought and one or more of Mac and Coop. More probable is that both Mac and Coop are villagers and neither really wanted Drought dead. Drake’s initial post did say that there were “undoubtedly Hallandren Agents”, but it sure doesn’t feel like it. To add one more wild theory to the mix, I can’t help thinking that partway through the game, someone’s going to die, come back as a Returned, and start trying to kill us all. Also, Drake, does voting on you protect us from dying of disease?
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Arinian switched their vote to Mac.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    With Joe’s vote, we have another day of perfect voter turnout! Hopefully you will have more time to talk next cycle. We currently have a 3-3 tie that could easily be broken by the captain. I would rather not leave the lynch up to their sole discretion, although doing so might help reveal their alignment. I don’t really believe that Arinian is an eliminator. I have played a couple of games with him when he was a villager, and he seems to be acting similarly to those times. One possibility as to why Coop trusts Mac is that Mac is the second captain, and that Coop had been warned ahead of time that his vote was going to be removed. If so, it seems unlikely that both Coop and Mac are eliminators, as Coop’s defense of Mac would be excessive if they were trying to keep an alliance secret. I shall test this theory by preserving the tie between now three players with Lopen’s vote. I will keep my vote on Joe. Edit: Wow, I changed my mind there halfway through typing that up. The sudden swing to Elenion has made it worthwhile to verify the captain’s identity and alignment. If Elenion dies today and flips village, I am going to have to look at Mac, Joe, Coop and Lopen tomorrow.
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