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Devotary of Spontaneity

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  1. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Devotary(3): Fifth, Striker, Vapor Mint(2): Ashbringer, Lotus Fifth(2): Mint, Devotary Straw(1): TJ Shade These votes are pretty widely spread out. I would rather vote any of the three other candidates over me, but I don't know what the right choice is. I'll put Fifth for now and switch to Mint as necessary. I will be around for rollover. A vote for Mint will only work if she's evil, because village!Mint would never vote for herself over me and I think trying to get the votes off me to someone else is hopeless. A vote for Fifth is similarly hopeless assuming Lotus and Truthwatcher don't come back unless they're elims because otherwise we can't afford to have them not cast votes for Fifth.
  2. Devotary of Spontaneity
    @The_Truthwatcher, if you're still there, you should be sure to vote this cycle. @TJ Shade, right, I missed Straw in the vote tally. I, at least, was voting on you first because I felt that your most likely teammates(Mint and Striker) were largely exclusive, and that learning your alignment would be more helpful than either of theirs. At this point, it's less useful because we can't really afford to have mislynches anymore. All the arguments for you are based on living players because all the dead players are the same alignment. Should you, Striker, and Mint all be village, I don't know what happens. Pretty much everyone else would be evil in that scenario. Does Vapor-Straw-Eternum-Truthwatcher-Ashbringer make sense? I don't know. Even the possibility of a five elim hammer should be enough to make sure that doesn't happen. Whether or not a four person team is likely doesn't change the fact that splitting the village vote is fatal with a five person elim team capable of voting at rollover.
  3. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Since we presumably have five elims out of the remaining eleven players, we'll need every villager to put their vote on the same person. The elims might not be able to have everyone online at rollover to hammer, but there's no reason to risk it. I think I'm going to go for Fifth again, but I don't know. Presumably only one of Striker and Mint is evil, and even if we lynch Fifth and don't lose we'd have to pick one of them. I'd go for Striker over Mint, even though I'd be willing to believe Fifth put purposefully voted for Mint too late for it to count. Things start to get super shaky after that even if we somehow survive another two cycles. I don't really have too much of a long term plan, Fifth-Striker-Straw is the furthest I've guessed. I'd say Ash and Mint are unlikely with that team. TJ could be with Fifth I guess. If Straw and Truthwatcher were both elims I'd have expected at least one of them to vote yesterday. I've got nothing on Vapor. Eternum was village read for a while but that means not so much with exclusively village dead. Lotus could be evil, possibly, but that doesn't work great with elim!TJ, and Striker doesn't either. Was TJ ever in serious danger of dying? It got to 7-6 at one point, I know.
  4. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why did you trust Striker at the time? I'm not sold on him being evil, but I don't think there's a lot that points to him definitely being village, though that's true for most everyone and hasn't stopped anyone including me from having village reads on people with minimal reasoning. Lotus had previously voted for Ventyl, so it makes sense to switch back when that lynch seemed viable. Eternum didn't seem to be excited about a Ventyl lynch, but went with it to see what happened, it looks like. Elim!Fifth starts a bandwagon on Ventyl to save elim!Mint, or sees decaying of support for the Mint lynch and decides to push a third bandwagon to make sure elim!Striker doesn't become the target. If neither Mint nor Striker are evil, you're much more likely to be village as well. In that world, the people who aren't doing any sort of provocation and just going along with existing trains become the main elim suspects. What were your 1-2-3 options for who to lynch yesterday? I preferred to lynch Striker, Ventyl, then Mint, which is the main reason I didn't tie the vote yesterday. Evidently Ventyl was your top choice, but if you switched your vote would it have been to Mint or Striker?
  5. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Other than @Shard of Reading, everyone else has voted every cycle so there won't be more than one inactivity death anytime soon. The elims usually wouldn't be targeting inactives at this point in the game anyway, though since we haven't managed to lynch any elims we don't have any particularly trusted villagers. No, that's a fair way to interpret my posting style. I don't have a lot of strong feelings on anyone, or rather the feelings that I have tend to be coupled with uncertainty. I didn't think Mint was likely to be an elim except with you, but I don't like the shift to Ventyl. It's easiest to explain the shift by having elim!Mint, in which case the most likely partners are Fifth and Lotus. Honestly though, I still feel village!Mint, elim!Striker. If we do have elim!Striker, I'm thinking Straw and Fifth as teammates, partially from D1 interactions/the fact that they're the ones pushing lynches/everything you brought up and; Fifth curating the Mint-Ventyl situation in an attempt to make sure Striker didn't become a target and Straw voting on Striker when the lynch was 5-1 against Mint while making it very clear that Straw was prepared to move his vote if a Striker lynch actually seemed likely. We lose two mislynches from now, but I'm willing to put my vote on one of these. I have Fifth as a possible teammate for either Mint or Striker, so I'll put a vote there. I'll look into a world where Ventyl-Mint-Striker is v/v/v, but if that's true we're really swinging at nothing.
  6. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Ventyl(5): Fifth, Gears, Eternum, Mint, Lotus Frozen Mint (4): TJ Shade, Vapor, Ventyl, Mist Striker (4): Lahilt, Straw, Ash, Devotary TJ Shade (1): Striker Sparkrunner (1): Truthwatcher I'm fine with not lynching Mint, but I'm not a huge fan of the Ventyl lynch. His playstyle so far this game is not at all similar to what he was doing as an elim in LG66. I guess the alternative here would be Striker, I haven't done nearly enough research into this vote, but it's where I'll put it for now. Edit: Mostly Striker for tonal reasons, 'someone smarter figure out the Mat kill', and somewhat odd POE on the TJ vote and clearing people for not great reasons.
  7. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'm not really seeing elim Mint except with also elim TJ, or at least village TJ means less likely elim Mint. I think villagers are more willing to be inconsistent with their views since they aren't as concerned about appearances. I can definitely see elim!Mint voting on teammate TJ and looking for any excuse to ditch that wagon, I less see elim!Mint switching from one village wagon(TJ) to another(Pyro) by reversing previous reads. There's still some time left in the cycle. If you're going to be around for rollover, you can put your vote on someone you're actually suspicious of now and switch to a more practical choice later if necessary.
  8. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I can be on the Shard at times other than an hour before rollover, I just have a habit of not voting until very late in the cycle. I get that putting down votes early restricts the voting pool to candidates of a voter's choice, I just don't feel like it should except for timezone issues. I'd rather not have another situation like last cycle where only votes for TJ or Pyro could conceivably count until much later in the cycle.
  9. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Especially with mandatory voting, an elim has to appear to care about the results of the lynch between two villagers. Elim!TJ might not care whether village!Pyro or Silber get lynched, but he still has to support a plausible lynch. There's not really a great way to defend yourself from 'TJ started a bandwagon on someone other than me', but some of the other things people(Straw) have said are reasonable. I can see TJ moving the lynch to Sil with any alignment combination for TJ/Pyro, and I guess we'll see part of which is true. Elim/elim would have the most obvious reason to do so, but TJ/Fifth has equally strong reasons, elim!TJ benefits if village!Pyro later gets lynched, and village!TJ who dislikes the Fifth/Pyro wagons has no reason not to support another plausible lynch. According to Orlok, the vote count was 6-5 when I voted for Sil. I did think the vote was tied when I voted though, so your point stands. You're right about voting late, as my vote is utterly meaningless at this point when it wouldn't have been had I gotten involved otherwise, but I don't think I can change this about myself. Let's at yet more votes to Pyro, and try to avoid immediate single or dual trains next cycle.
  10. Devotary of Spontaneity
    With Silber not being evil, all that particularly means is that the late switch back to Pyro was not an attempt to save a teammate. Why would it be true that if TJ is an elim Pyro also is, and vice versa? TJ's vote came very early in the Silber train when the vote was tied between Fifth and Pyro. There isn't a reason TJ would be defending one over the other, and at that point it's also plausible for a villager to have decided there was enough time left in the cycle to move off two wagons they thought were village. What two villagers are you referring to here? Fifth and Pyro? Pyro and Silber?
  11. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Which players who voted for Fifth did you have trust reads on? Mostly that nobody had any strong feelings on lynching Fifth and were willing to shift away with little provocation. The counter-lynch on Pyro came heavily from people who had previously voted Fifth, instead of as an entirely separate swing. More concrete information doesn't come until people die. I don't think I had anything to do with dissolving the train; that mostly happened on it's own. I started it mostly because you already had a vote and I wanted to see if people would take a mini wagon and run with it, and that did indeed happen. I see that even random, temporary votes can be impactful. Peer reviewing posts tends not to be a thing that happens. Elims coordinate on general strategy, but it's rare for individual posts to be submitted in a doc for approval before being put in thread. I note that there's a relatively quick wagon forming on Silber, and I don't incredibly know why. I see that despite trying to vote early, I end up making a decision thing at the last minute again. I don't think there's a super high chance of Pyro or Silber being evil; late cycle vote swings have a lower than proportional chance of hitting an elim while I'm not seeing the same things from Pyro that I remember from MR42. Either lynch should give some useful information. There's been a mild swing back onto Pyro, so I guess I'll vote Silberfarben.
  12. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Well that one vote for sure did incite a bandwagon, up to five votes at one point. Fifth hasn't responded yet, but it looks like that train blew itself out and switched over to the last Fifth voter. Some useful information probably came out of this. I don't really think Pyro is evil, or at least I'm pretty sure Pyro was telling the truth about his vote being merely a placeholder. Two of the Fifth voters are now voting for Pyro, so it's not about saving either in the case that we have Fifth/Pyro evil together. I can see elims jumping on the Fifth wagon regardless of his alignment; I can't really say that the surge and dissolution of votes means anything about Fifth. @Matrim's Dice, if you don't like the Fifth bandwagon, is there something specific about Fifth that you'd be fine with him being lynched?
  13. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Only the final vote counts in terms of considering who is/isn't likely to be on a team together, so in the absence of reasoning a vote is only useful if it sticks. Or if it prompts a bandwagon; one vote means nothing but several votes on the same person should prompt a response. On that note, Fifth. Would you say that early D1 elim votes can be truly random, since they can easily be reassigned later when actual 'evidence' pops up? I don't think I would make any alignment shift judgements on Lahilt, Silber, Eternum, or TJ should any of their respective voters be evil, provided those votes either shift or become irrelevant throughout the day.
  14. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I will sign up as Caliex, a young Canton of Finance obligator raised by a minor noble family.
  15. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I'm not convinced of the strategy 'lynch Silb and then lynch Zillah if village', but we'll see what the results of this cycle are. Three village impersonators would be a lot. I don't know what the ideal vote is to get a tie. I suspect the elims could put the lynch on whoever they want regardless of how I vote. I'll go for Lord Silberfarben I guess, though that really only works if Sart soothes a vote off him and elim!Silb is roleblocked.
  16. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So Silber could be an impersonator, but if so Pyro spent a lot of effort trying to convince me that was not the case back before there was reason to believe Silber was an impersonator. If Pyro and Silber were teammates, I'd assume Pyro would want to live C5 and attempt to do so be having a vote be moved from Pyro to Xino. This didn't happen because Pyro made sure Silber's action was redirected to you, who was already voting for Xino. This ultimately wouldn't have mattered, but had the votes stayed the same as they were when I got Pyro's PM, impersonating a vote to Xino would have saved Pyro. Is there a reason for Silber being an elim other than being an impersonator?
  17. Devotary of Spontaneity
    C6 when I said that Silb wasn't the one who attacked you, it was because I'd asked that Silb be redirected to Bugsy C5 at Pyro's request. Since the extortionist's action was successful but Bugsy's vote was not moved, Silb can't be an impersonator. It's possible I'm being fooled here, since it was Pyro who directed me to this extortionist(Winsting) C5, presumably after the elims had decided they weren't going to help the village find Bleeder. One possibility is that impersonator!Silb submitted an action to redirect someone's vote to Xino, and the target of Xino remained even after Winsting's redirect. I'm not entirely sure if that's how things work. Another possibility is that the person I contacted wasn't Winsting, though that's not super likely.
  18. Devotary of Spontaneity
    Why would the elims throw the game by giving up Winsting? There's no reason for them to favour Bleeder over the village. A last elim could potentially threaten to do so, but by the time we're down to one elim we'll hopefully have gotten around to lynching Bleeder. Now that we know who Bleeder is, we can have village escorts/extortionists prevent a kill on Winsting. It's still worthwhile to get rid of Bleeder in case the safety precautions fail. Dispersal is not a threat this cycle, but easily could be soon unless the inactive players come back. The elims win if any of them are alive when we disperse, and since the village wins the cycle after all threats are dead there's no good reason for the village to ever vote to disperse. Assuming no inactive players come back and the number of people escorted remains the same, lynching a tycoon!Bugsy combined with a roleblocked Bleeder kill and a successful elim kill leaves us with 9 awake players and still 6 votes needed for dispersal. That's probably fine. Lynching Bugsy again, with Bleeder redirected to a random villager and another villager elim-killed leaves 6 awake players and four votes needed for dispersal, which could be game over. This problem is easily solved by having the inactives come back/Joe get pinch hitters, but it could be an issue if not resolved.
  19. Devotary of Spontaneity
    We have four dead elims, and of the ones remaining we're now pretty sure of are escort and extortionist. The remaining impersonator is likely, though I don't think guaranteed, to be an elim. Judging from the two votes removed from Pyro, a second elim smuggler is a distinct possibility. We didn't have any votes smuggled this past cycle but it seems an impersonator who didn't vote and might well have been wilson moved Shard's vote to Xino instead of Sart. I know Xino did not take an action last cycle, so he's not any of those roles and presumably not an elim at all. If we do have an elim impersonator and smuggler, we'd want four more votes on an elim than on Bugsy(to account for the impersonator voting for the elim initially), and even then the elims could choose to let the elim die alone. @Kynedath, I'm not sure if the elim team has room for a renowned, and in case it doesn't, who did you scan last cycle? With so few awake players, village escorts should be more careful about roleblocking people, though targeting an elim may still be worth it.
  20. Devotary of Spontaneity
    There are two impersonators here, but only three votes removed. Fura isn't an impersonator, but Coda could be. We know Elkanah soothed one of the 18 remaining votes off Straw, and the other removed vote was probably the other impersonator. Either two impersonators/1 smuggler(Elkanah), or two impersonators, one of which didn't vote, and two smugglers, one of which was Elkanah. Then in cycle 5 we go up to three active smugglers. I guess it's plausible that two of those are elims with two votes being removed from Pyro. It's kind of a shame we didn't get any useful information from Shard of Reading, like the results of the scans Pyro claimed would be happening. I did hear that Lord Sil was not the one who attacked DeTess.
  21. Devotary of Spontaneity
    So many posts already, many accomplishing very little. I've been reading through the thread, but very little has stuck. I'd assume you do get money separately for day and night, for a total of 11 boxings in a cycle just for one post, one PM, and a vote per turn. Otherwise nobody would actually get any items for a long time. There are some sort of secret rules, likely giving the Kandra some chance of winning, but no compounding.
  22. Devotary of Spontaneity
    I tried to target Kynedath C4 as well, and Joe let me target him again since I was redirected.
  23. Devotary of Spontaneity
    C1: Fura targeted Araris C2: Elkanah targeted Karnage C3: DeTess targeted nobody C4: Redirected to Megasif, who targeted nobody C5: Kynedath targeted Sart.
  24. Devotary of Spontaneity
    DeTess was attacked despite the elims specifically clearing her of being Bleeder. Unless the elims decided that actually they want to make things easier for Bleeder, that kill could easily have been submitted by Bleeder, with the elim kill presumably then being blocked by an escort. Not the simplest scenario, but cutting into the cleared list isn't a good strategy even though the elims can't actually kill Bleeder. If we don't hear from whoever apparently extorted the elim kill onto Xino, seeing who got escorted could be a way to find more elims and offer them a chance to share information.
  25. Devotary of Spontaneity
    The C1 vote count suggested we have a total of two smugglers and an impersonator, but one of those smugglers is dead(Elkanah), the other smuggler is likely Sart, and the impersonator is Wilson. I could see Sart being an elim, but Wilson probably isn't. Assuming Wilson is moving a vote to Pyro from Xino, Pyro will still be lynched even if elim!Sart last minute switched his vote and soothed another vote from Pyro. Despite Pyro being ambiguous/contradictory about which elim player was extorted and to who, there's still a decent chance that if an extortionist redirected somebody to either Xino or Bugsy, the person they redirected was an elim. With Pyro being lynched, it could be reasonable to make this redirected elim the new elim spokesperson.
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