Rathmaskal

Ouch.

Yeah, if you want to make it harder for yourselves, you should post who you plan on killing to see if anyone else decides to be active enough to try to protect...haha

If someone does have a way to kill tonight, please use it on Devotary so we can remove the vote manip from tomorrow. If not, we ALL need to vote Devotary tomorrow (assuming the game drags on)

Yeah, yeah, go play in your championships. Most people not named me have something to gloat about... As a virtually all-powerful being, the best thing I did this game was manage to claim an RP after the game had started that hinted at my role that went mostly unnoticed In the event that we do manage to extend the game, I guess I should see if I can find elim #3...

Yeah, that's what I figured. :/ Well, if we do have a shot, let's go people! Regardless, though, well played elims.

So, I'd guess there's still a chance that we come back and win this, otherwise the game would be ended I'd assume? It seems that last cycle, Fura and Devotary were bussing each other to get village cred...but then when they saw they could take the vote alone, they switched off. If they are the only remaining elims, then they must have assumed the voting turnout was going to remain rather low. Either that or there's a third elim out there hiding. Or there's a fourth and we have someone still available who can take out elims tonight. Regardless, time to lock down and see if we can swing this.

Oh, sorry, must have hit a page down or something. First post I saw when scrolling was Fura's vote on you. Thanks! Devotary (2) - Fura, Snipexe Fura (3) - Devotary, Rath, Joe

Current vote count: Devotary (2) - Fura, Snipexe Fura (2) - Rath, Joe OK, come on people. Seriously? If one of those two is elim and the other isn't...and the chances of moving on are down to coin flip... @xinoehp512 @Ark1002 @Devotary of Spontaneity @Levitaph @Dr. Dapper And Devotary ninja is hopefully a vote?

Gah, sorry, I'll join.

Wow, OK then, next time Fifth jumps on someone D1 like that, I guess I'll just follow... Fura and Levitaph made the late jump off Lumgol last lynch. I'm going to go with Fura. Going with an edit here since it looks like only Sart is in thread right now *RIP* We need to make sure that there is a full hammer on one person. There should not be 3 candidates for lynch at this point.

So, we have this vote count currently? Lumgol (3) - Furamirionind, Ark, Levitaph Furamirionind (0) - Sart Levitaph (1) - Lopen Lopen (2/3) - Lumgol, Sart +1? I can see the argument for both here. Lopen rang so strikingly village early in the game that I feel it would have been tough to not convert as Sja-Anat...and has been slightly less helpful since. Lumgol has been under suspicion all game, but has definitely rang a bit less wolfy recently. So, basically we have two people who have kind of gone opposite directions with regards to their actions. When I noted that I thought that lynching Lumgol would result in the most possible information for the village, I wasn't quite considering the potential for LYLO. We're at an interesting point in the game. Depending on how...generous...Steel was to the elim team, we could be in LYLO at this point, although I doubt that's quite the case. (We may have room for one more mislynch...which still doesn't bode well for us). I'm at least mildly surprised that I'm thinking this, but I'm going to have to vote Lopen, more based on how I would have played as Sja-Anat than any other reason.

Dr. Dapper has not claimed to me, despite supporting it in thread. Also, I'll tell everyone what I told Fura in PM. I did not bond anyone and am now bonded myself, so any more bonding has to come via some good RNG.

Well, with PMs open, thoughts on everyone role claiming to me?

So, it's fairly likely the elims will kill me tonight (never want to leave a confirmed villager alive, right?), so I'm not sure how much more use I'll be, but if they do leave me alive for the day cycle, at least we'll be able to focus accordingly. (That's also why I didn't want the vote to be close. I wasn't sure if I wanted to role claim if I wasn't lynched, but since I was, it was definitely the best decision) Also, for those of you who read the rules, obviously since I was able to refill stormlight, I am bonded and can not help bond anyone else.

OK, looks like I'm getting lynched. See you all tonight, enjoy your stormlight. Now let's get down to business.

Lum (2): Rath, CadCom Lopen (3): Sart, Ark, Lum Rath (3): Fura, Lopen, Devotary OK folks, please get some more votes in, even if they're on me. This is a bit too close for my liking.

Yeah, sorry, I didn't articulate myself very well there. There are three points (two rather related) that I think are driving my vote here (And I'm going to refer to you by 'Lum' rather than 'you' for clarity purposes in case someone decides to quote this later). In order: The Fifth/Lum D1 back and forth partly resulted in a villager being lynched. Lum has been the leading lynch candidate for D1 and D2 with a large swing near the end of the cycle resulting in a different lynch. Lum has been influencing a decent amount of the conversation and who should be focused on. We can garner some decent information on these people based on how Lum flips. As I re-read this, point 3 provides a much less compelling argument to me...and I didn't even barely mention point 2 in my previous post.

Wait, I didn't RP my last couple posts? It is all planned child. There is RP in not RPing. --- OK, so here's another type of analysis to think about: The Fifth lynch. Wth just over an hour left, the vote was something like this (Note, I may have missed a vote movement or two, but I'm starting with the votecount posted at the top of page 9 of the full thread): Lum (3): Levitaph, Fifth, Ark Dapper (0): Lum (Had already moved vote to Ark) Fifth (1): Sart Ark (2): Dapper, Lum Levitaph (1): CadCom Rath (1): Devotary The final round of votes: Dapper - Fifth (66 minutes remaining in cycle) Rath - Fifth (60 minutes) Lum - Fifth (58 minutes) Fura - Fifth (57 minutes) Levitaph - Fifth (13 minutes) Lopen - Levitaph (after cycle, so wasn't counted) So, this was D2, so even if Sja-Anat was riding along to start the game, we could have 3 elims. Point 1: I know that my strategy as elim would be to make sure there isn't an obvious connection between votes, so I think that among me, Lum, Dapper, and Fura, there will be a maximum of 2 elims... (Yes, I know I sometimes get into trouble focusing on small groups...but I think I'm doing this slightly more intelligently) Point 2: I feel like Lum is the tipping point of a decent amount of information in this game. There was a lot of back and forth between Fifth and Lum D1. Eventually Fifth was lynched but Lum is still around. Lum was the vote leader coming into the last ~hour of the cycle and has been involved in influencing a lot of the conversation so far. So, Sart, Lum Updated Vote Count: Ark (1) - Lopen Lopen (2) - Sart, Ark Shqueeves () - Fura Rath (2) - Fura, Lopen Sart () - Rath Lum (1) - Rath

Since a couple people in a row are questioning my post-by-post analysis... The reason I'm going so deliberately through everything is because this is a conversion game. Yes, I could read through and just provide summaries of everything, but having a detailed record of everything seems a bit more likely to catch a change in tone from someone. But, if you think it's getting too cumbersome to read through, I can pivot to another form of analysis and keep the more granular notes I'm putting together to myself.

-Elandera --Notes that Sart was able to prove vote manipulation - OK, this is...interesting. The fact that there was vote manipulation that Sart said would be there only proves that Sart had knowledge of vote manipulation. I'm sure most of you see where I'm going here, but since we were told that it wasn't guaranteed that Sja-Anat was the only elim to start the game, it's possible that there was another elim with vote manipulation. There is a possibility this was Sart...and there's a possibility that Sart is Sja-Anat and had a sidekick Inkspren mess with the votes. -Randuir --Following up with Elandera saying that it just proves Sart is not Sja-Anat - again, not true. -CadCom --Catches that Sart could be Sja-Anat as well. - OK, so my points were addressed. Thanks everyone. -Dr. Dapper --More RP -TheMightyLopen --Notes that he doesn't like the lynch on Coop, but does understand it. Also wants to hear more from people who didn't vote - Well, I don't really like the lynch on Coop either now...haha, but I agree that inactives always make games more difficult. -Lumgol --Notes that Xino and Ark didn't post D1 but Snipexe did - Info -Snipexe --Apologizes for inactivity and notes that he's suspicious of Sart's long post - I think this is in reference to the post that complains about CadCom's lack of vote. If so, I agree Aaaaaaaaand, night cycles are a lot quicker to analyze. So, not much to talk about here. Obviously we know that Elandera flipped village, so nothing to read into the faulty logic there, but the responses from Randuir and CadCom make the same points I was going to bring up (I had a slightly longer analysis of this typed up before I read their responses and saw that they had already hit my points) Lopen's post is tough. Looking back at the rules, there's nothing that says that the Sja-Anat conversion couldn't happen as a day action, so it's possible that whoever Sja-Anat is could have identified Lopen as the move village-sounding person and converted immediately. Anyway, for now, I'm going to place a vote on Sart as I continue my next read through the thread. (With the extended rollover, I should be able to get through everything so assuming this vote stays, it will be based on more information than just C1.) As for @Furamirionind's (Tagged since I'm not going to directly quote the post...just creates too much clutter to clean up) vote on me.there are two things I'd like to follow up on. I mean, it's D1. If I'm 30% convinced someone is an elim and no more than 20% convinced of anyone else, I'll probably vote for the 30% person at that point. But that still leaves me thinking that person is more likely to be village than elim. Anything I thought worthy of analysis I gave analysis when I posted. Basically, anything after ' - ' is my commentary. And I'm not sure what summary doesn't match up with my analysis. I guess I could have been a bit more harsh on Dr. Dapper in my summary? Edit 2: I think people realize, but I just realized I didn't specify that this was specifically a N1 analysis

If you're in game already, do you have a link to the thread? Could be fun to follow along a bit. (Yes, I know I could probably find it...just could be fun to drive some additional spectators over)

I was told that it would not hide actions. So, I'm not sure. Probably in situations where my identity is scanned, it results in no result? Edit: Yes, I realized as I posted this that the last sentence sounds stupid...so, let's just pretend I said, "I don't know"

Hey everyone, I'll try to get to continue my day-by-day analysis I started yesterday, but in the meantime, I did create an item with my last action. Due to its nature, I don't wish to share the recipe since I think it would be far more useful to the elim team. The item I created is 'Pungent Fumes' which can disguise my identity for two turns.

Elantris parallel? I really enjoy the bio. That alone should give you an edge, especially with the amount of intimidation you're able to provide from your career record.

OK, so I went through D1 post by post...giving a few thoughts here and there... Please note that this is entirely a D1 analysis. I'll try to get follow-up going later (this has taken me the past 5 hours given various interruptions I've had during the process) D1 -Lumgol --Post about people not posting much being a potential sign of Sja-Anat - This could easily be an attempt to deflect suspicion away since Lumgol is rather active. -Snipexe --Clarification on Lumgol's post that Sja-Anat can't be bonded, but Stormfather can - NAI -Dr. Dapper --One of many posts without any content - Unsure -Sart --Vote on Lumgol due to significant disagreement with Lum's assertion that inactive players are more likely to be Sja-Anat - Meh, mostly NAI I think... I'm of the opinion that something like this is just a disagreement between two players about how they would expect to play as Sja-Anat. -Devotary of Spontaneity --RP - NAI -Elandera --Check in - nothing to analyze since Elandera is dead and this doesn't really have any content. -Lopen --Check in - again, nothing to analyze really at this point -Fifth --Brief response to posts, namely Lum and Sart - since we know Fifth was village now, there's not much to analyze here. -Furamirionind --Check in - NAI -Randuir --Mostly checkin, although also responds that activity level likely won't be indicative of Sja-Anat - NAI -CadCom --Check in - NAI -Rath --Comment on Stormfather potentially being able to get lucky C1 with a failed bonding -Lumgol --This is the post on whether we should be focusing on Sja-Anat or other elims - still think this is a tough one to swallow, but it generated discussion at least. -Elandera --Disagreement with Lum's previous post - still tough to analyze anything here -Rath --Basically echoing Elandera's post -Devotary of Spontaneity --Saying it may be easier to find Sja-Anat since most other players can find a decent way to backup a role claim. Also going to be focusing on item creation. - Not really anything to get a read on here IMO. -Shqueeves --RNG vote on Fifth - never a fan of RNG votes...but it's D1, so can't pull too much out of this at this point. -Lumgol --Self-defense vote on Fifth - This is another Lum post that seems a bit off -Levitaph --Vote on Lum with explanation about being super helpful early can basically put a target on your back, also asks for Devotary's essence results - mostly NAI just because I don't think Levitaph is familiar with how most people end up playing here. But it does read a little off. -Fifth --Vote on Lum with some justification included. Disagreement with Sart, and calling Shqueeves out for the RNG vote - Again, now that we know Fifth is village, we can remove the parts of this we find suspicious. I don't think we can get too much read on other players from that, honestly. Another call out on Lumgol though. -Lumgol --Responses to Sart, Levitaph, and Fifth - Most of this post is NAI. The one thing I find off is the response to Levitaph. Interpretting Levitaph's post as "if you're helpful early you'll get voted on" may just be a misread, but it could be deflecting suspicion again. I read it more as "if you're helpful early, the elims will get you with the night kill" -Fifth --response to Lum mostly - continuing suspicion of Lum mostly. Again, tough to apply anything from this post to find useful information. -Rath --Vote and justification on Lum -Elandera --Hedging comments on Lum - notes that Lum has been lynched early several times recently -Dr. Dapper --Hmmmmmm. -Rath --defense of D1 lynches being weak *Skip back and forth between Steel and Rath* -Lumgol --Defense fo a few points - A decent defense here, but the last paragraph, again reads a bit off. "As for your point about this driving discussion away from more useful things...Just because I said something or brought up a point doesn't mean that people have to talk about it or avoid talking about other things..." This is true, but by adding something to a conversation, you do end up driving that conversation to some degree. -Shqueeves --Defends the random ote as helpful for bonding - still mostly NAI, but would be nice to have a bit more content at this point. -Coop772 --Vote on Lumgol due to mostly agreeing with other people - this rings just a little off for me - voting by just agreeing with people...I know I've kind of done that in the past (and kind of this game as well) but a bit more substance would have been helpful here. -Furamirionind --Vote on Fifth primarily due to interaction with Lum - I was very much on the same page here, so I can't read too much into this logic. But obviously Fifth flipped village. -TheMightyLopen --Comment's on Fifth's voting and questions my post voting on Lum as well as noting that Coop's short post seems village - I don't really disagree with any of the logic here other than the conclusion (by way of vote) that I may be elim. -Fifth --Various responses to other posts, notes less suspicion on Lumgol after most recent post, and provides a bit of a response to Lopen, including a slight defense of my playstyle so far. - Again, at this point I'm finding it kind of tough to use Fifth's D1 activity to provide much feedback on other people, but as I get further along I'll hopefully have a bit more to go off. -TheMightLopen --Agrees that it's tough to be proactive as a villager early in the game. Asks for more content from Coop. - Honestly, at this point, I think Lopen is the one person (who isn't dead) I have a strong village read on. -Randuir --Vote on Coop, notes Fifth seems over the top, comments on my typical early playstyle, also notes that Levitaph's earlier point about early activity may just be a difference in gameplay. - Again, mostly NAI -Lumgol --Retract from Fifth and vote on Coop - not sure what to think about this. At this point, it seems more likely that someone would want to get a self preservation vote in, but Lum's vote changes it from Fifth - 3, Coop - 1 to Fifth - 2, Coop - 2. -Rath --Retract from Lum, vote on coop -Devotary of Spontaneity --Analysis on the votes so far - Pretty good analysis here. -Sart --Retract from Lumgol, vote on CadCom - this was the mildly inflammatory post that Elandera later called out. The sentiments are mostly valid though, just a bit extreme in my mind. (Also, I think there was a little RP involved with the 'storming annoying' comment) -Elandera --Calls out Sart's post and votes on him - I think this is about the only time that Elandera really went after a specific person, which is worth noting since El is so far the only victim of the elim kill. -Randuir --Agrees with most of Elander's post, but doesn't see why it makes Sart look suspicious - meh, not much to read out of this. -Elandera --Notes the last sentence of Sart's post - "Reviewing is overrated. Vote now and vote often. That's the only way the village wins" as the suspicious part. -CadCom --Third post regarding Sart's post, comments on D1 lynches in conversion games being tougher to be effective with. Also, notes that the Lum/Fifth back and forth doesn't seem valid on either side. -TheMightyLopen --Leaves vote on me due to me not really being in danger of lynch and the help toward bonding - fair -Devotary of Spontaneity --Coop vote - not really much reasoning here. -Dr. Dapper --Might be a Sart vote (wrong color, I'll have to see if that was counted/corrected later) - not really much analysis there other than agreeing with Elandera -Lumgol --Brief analysis on Sart and me, conclusion seems to be generally village-leaning for both of us. - seems like good analysis. The comment about lynch-hammering anyone who survives a lynch due to there being a 50/50 chance of being correct makes sense as does retaining a slight amount of suspicion on me for not giving a ton of information as to why I retracted my vote. -Dr. Dapper --Corrects Sart vote color -Fifth --Votes on Sart, notes a bit of an alarm on the quick move from Lumgol lynching to Coop lynching. -Coop --Sart vote -Sart --Clarifies a bit on the earlier post, moves vote from CadCom to Devotary - not sure on this vote. Notes that Devotary has been "...following the thread carefully, but didn't post a vote until late..." Not sure I agree with that as good rationale. There are certainly plenty of times where I find it necessary to try to keep up with the thread, but can't actually get a good post in that articulates my thoughts. *Skipping the next few posts snice it's admin stuff and Fifth telling Coop 'not to worry'* -Dr. Dapper --A bit of RP -Sart --Switch from Devotary to Coop - self-preservation -Levitaph --Clarifies early post that Lum seemed to misinterpret. -Coop --Notes that the logic against Lum makes sense. -Lumgol --Kind of just responds to Levitaph's previous comment - Not much here. -Levitaph --Cautions people about determining too much intent off votes because of the bonding aspect - I'm really not sure about this post. This actually seems a bit off to me. If people are voting, there should be some kind of reason behind it. I'm not going to vote on someone I think is 100% village just to get a chance at bonding. More likely to grab my best suspect. -Devotary --Defends following the thread -Furamirionind --Notes absence for the rest of the day cycle -Elandera --Votecount and notes that the tie is valid since both vote trains seem fairly reasonable ~~~~~~ My thoughts after this (again, this is a D1 analysis...I'll revisit these when I have time): D1 Lumgol still seems very suspicious. There were really only two posts that didn't raise any alarms for me I guess we'll have to judge Dr. Dapper by votes alone? Lopen and Devotary seem to be the strongest village leans for me so far. Fura, Rand, and CadCom are all slight lean village for me. Xino, Snipexe, Shqueeves, and Ark are all kind of just there so far Not sure what to think about Levitaph. Definitely disagree with some of the comments, but tough to get a read on so far. And, it looks like there have been a few replies since I started this...let's see what's happening.