Rathmaskal

Oh, drat, that link didn't post very well...probably since I copied it twice...copy of a copy and such...but at least it links to the correct place. Snip, xino, and Ark. I know I didn't mention them at all...(there may be others? unsure) I specifically know I didn't mention them because every post of theirs was basically RP. I will say that's a huge weakness of mine - I'm not great at reading through RP and understanding what people are actually saying. I'm sure that makes me miss things on occasion...and if anyone wants to make sure I'm completely lost in a game, you have your ammunition...just make sure everyone RPs...lol

So, first off, as it's gotten closer to rollover, I've had to shorten a bit of my analysis, so please excuse the brevity. I'm trying to get down my thoughts for people as I go through the first couple cycles. So, the order is just the order in which something popped into my head as I was reading through the cycle. Also, this kind of stops at the end of D1. Stick - D1 noted that it would be nice to just lynch an inactive player. Although I see how this would stall the elim wincon, this doesn't seem very productive. The question about the Vin/Zane PM could be an attempt to derp clear (I wasn't aware of that term prior to keeping track of Fura's championship match...so hopefully that's understood) Voting on Araris because Bard seemed TWTBAW...that's about as good a reason as I had for voting on Bard. Not a fan of that either. Maill - I'm not sold on using RP to justify different thought processes. Once he started playing with less RP, things have been a bit better, but that may have been designed to cover up a slip? Late vote on Steel D1. At this point, we needed to start looking for a lynch train. Lumgol - As with Rand early game, I think people are jumping on an idea a bit too harshly. The roleclaim is definitely bold. I'm curious why Lum is still alive after that...or if we can expect to no longer see Lum after tonight. Just seems like a tough role for the elims to leave out there unless they just think Lum is completely barking up the wrong tree. CadCom - been under suspicion a decent amount. "...there's nothing that I can do on D1 to disprove it..." falls in line with CadCom's most recent post about being able to prove village alignment if left alive today. I'm curious what might be possible there. I don't recall anything from the rules that would allow specifically a N2 role claim or anything like that. (I'd be curious what the timeline is regarding that...) - Brought up that Joe could be Hoid as well. That could be interesting. I don't think we've discussed that possbility much. At this point, I don't think it's worth it to dwell on Joe much more until we have more information. - Follows Rae close enough that I would say it's rather unlikely that the two of them are knowingly working together (verbiage deliberate - it could be village/village...and they'd obviously be working together...but not know it) Steel - volunteering to be the Mistborn hunter... Offers some insight into the mind of someone in the SK role. (Araris later shoots down the idea that Zane and/or Vin are really SK role...I agree with that) Later seems stuck on the Araris response... Rae - The initial vote on Araris seems sloppy... Pushes against Joe vote due to Secret History reasons...and turns around onto Bard. Haven't gotten much out of Rae...but given that the D1 lynch was v/v, it's easy for an elim to just chill. Elandera - Early on at least I'm concerned with the low activity level. Not used to seeing this. Devotary - Calling out Lum and Steel for trying to focus on the Mistborn rather than the elims is good. Also brings up that Joe may be Preservation...curious how that would work out. Lum's scan was obviously to the contrary. Comments on the need for Lum to prove Tineye 2 multiple times in order to prove not Vin...good point. Another person who kind of jumped on Araris, although not as harshly... The not as harshly aspect is actually kind of interesting...could be a bit of hedging. Fura - Very harsh on Araris D1. Kind of gets that wagon going. Straw - So, I've been kind of writing down thoughts as I reread through everything and I get to Straw's post here: https://www.17thshard.com/forum/topic/85159-long-game-55-disquiet/?do=findComment&comment=869514 The whole "I've read through all of the posts so far, and not that much has stood out" thing reads a bit wrong to me. I feel like a similar post to that is kind of what sunk Steel in the last QF... I've gotten at least one thought on everyone listed above prior to getting to this post. Definitely the most...off...thing I've seen so far. HH - The rationale for the Araris vote...not buying it... Ok, I'm seeing some good points on the Coop train. I hadn't quite put the 2 and 2 together of Coop claiming Lum was evil. Right now, Straw is seeming like my strongest candidate to take a peek into actually, but I'm going to have to go with someone already getting trained on. Current votes: Maill (2) - STINK, Lum Rae (5) - Steel, CadCom, Elandera, xino, Rath Coop (1) - Lum-, Rath, CadCom-, Straw CadCom (4) - Maill, Fura, Coop, HH Rath (1) - Stick OK, there have been about 400 ninjas during this post, even as I'm trying to get some last minute notes here after copying over from my notebook....*sigh* Rae CadCom has done a lot at this point, but I'm not sure anything holds enough to lynch him. WHEW And there's your vote count.

Disregarding the rest of your comments, I thought the rest of the post would be sufficient reasoning. Oh well. As for the NAI-ness. Welcome to playing with me (Actually not sure if I've been in a game with you prior to this...maybe one of the anon ones I pinch hit in?) (I'm working on my re-read of the first cycle right now btw and I'm out of meetings for the day. Unfortunately I'm unlikely to get analysis out to swing the vote, but I will get something, as well as a more reasoned vote out)

OK, so I'll start today's posts with my thoughts on Joe. I'll get another post in talking about my actual elim and maybe mistborn thoughts later as well. This one I can do without a bunch of quotes though. (And by later, I'm not sure when that will be since I have 5 hours of meetings coming up...fun!) For part 1, assume Joe is Kelsier based on Lum's post. What could Joe's wincon be? Getting Vin away from Zane is a decent thought. (Can't remember if anyone posted about that possibility or not) Maybe a standard village wincon? There's been some discussion of a potential Ruin in the game. Perhaps it has something to do with opposing Ruin? Although I'm unsure what wincon Ruin might have other than something along the lines of a serial killer. This actually might make a little bit of sense. Given Zane's and Vin's wincon, I think it's just as likely they weren't responsible for the extra kill last night (it looks like we're assuming it was on Bard?). If, on the other hand, we have a SK role in the game, there's definitely going to be that extra kill. Meh, as I type it out, it sounds less plausible. Doesn't mean that Ruin isn't out there, just that Ruin 'tear it all down' is less likely. Thanks for talking this out with me! I'm honestly unsure what other wincon a Ruin might have in this game. I'm really trying to hang onto this idea, though, with the thought that Ruin could be manipulating the information we receive. Flavor-wise, that makes a bit of sense, right? (In the original trilogy, Ruin was able to manipulate written word, right?) What's the deal with the whispers from the mist? OK, yeah, if Joe is Kelsier, it makes a lot of sense that these messages would be from Joe. But how would Joe have information that Coop specifically is evil? This is at least part of the reason why I'm at least partly hanging onto the idea that there's a Ruin in the game. Say these messages are from Joe and he does have good information. If Coop is evil, great, we get some great information and are able to lynch someone and then we start trusting Joe, right? If Coop isn't evil, then Joe is most likely next on the chopping block, assuming we actually can lynch him. Well, if we can't lynch Joe, then that makes this a no-lose situation for him...except for the existence of the assassin. At this point, Zane seems very difficult to kill at night, so the assassin may be waiting for a chance at jumping on Zane if his identity becomes more apparent. (Oh, Steel is Zane, got it. Case closed.) But Zane is killable, with the lynch if nothing else. If Joe is outed as unlynchable, the Assassin may give it a try. Say these messages are from Joe and he is speculating. We basically end up with the same results, but Joe is basically hoping for a 50/50 shot at getting an elim or mistborn right from D1 analysis. Bold move. Say these messages aren't from Joe Well, they're unlikely to be from Fifth since a GM pointing out that someone is evil would be...interesting. I'd think for that to work out, there would have had to have been some mechanic in place that selected a specific player regardless of alignment and claimed them as evil. Seems a bit much and, in my opinion, rather unlikely, especially considering Fifth already has a 'role' in this game. Could they be from anyone else? With Coop now checking in, that takes the last person who wasn't posting in thread out of the mix, which makes that rather unlikely. OK, so there is a possibility that these whispers could be coming from multiple sources. Joe and from others. Not sure where to go on that. Going through these possibilities, we can be fairly certain that the whispers are, in fact, coming from Joe. The question at this point is whether Joe is important enough to solve to vote on Coop, or whether anyone has any better suspicions. OK, so assume Joe isn't Kelsier Lum was flat out lying to us Why? Honestly, I'm not sure. If Lum gets caught out in the lie, then that's going to paint a picture on Lum's back. If Lum doesn't get caught out, then that likely means that Lum is working with Joe somehow. In this case, Joe would have to be something other than Kelsier and Lum would have to be a role that makes sense. Sooo, Ruin and Marsh maybe? Lum was misinformed some other way This brings back up the possibility of Ruin existing...and at that point, we really need to think about what Ruin's wincon might be. I know the 'Joe isn't Kelsier' part isn't nearly as fleshed out as the 'Joe is Kelsier', but that's because I'm having some difficulty considering other possibilities there. To kind of summarize, I think it definitely most likely that Joe is Kelsier and he is working overall in our best interests. He may have a side wincon to get rid of Zane specifically, but that wouldn't hinder the village wincon overall. In fact, I could see a situation where if Zane dies first, Vin becomes a "standard" villager. Whew. That was fun. OK, after all that, REMEMBER, WE NEED TO MAKE SURE THERE IS A GOOD TRAIN ON SOMEONE TO PREVENT THE ELIM HAMMER! Current vote count: Maill (1) - STINK Rae (1) - Steel Coop (2) - Lum, Rath CadCom (2) - Maill, Fura Yes, I'm voting for Coop. Partly to make sure I have a vote on the board in case I end up unable to come back, and partly because I think a vote on Coop gets us significant information on both Lum and Joe.

I guess I wasn't as clear as I thought when I posted since my vote on Bard has been brought up a couple times now. I wasn't necessarily suspicious of Bard. I mostly didn't like the train on Araris and Bard was the only other viable train at that point. I thought Araris had been making some good points. Sorry for the short post, I'll try to start working on some real analysis soonish. I'm mostly keeping up with the thread, just don't have time to focus on it currently.

Hmmm, sorry I've been absent from thread for a bit. Been at a company team building event. Walking on shaky pieces of wood 20 feet above the ground isn't exactly in my wheelhouse...but I made it through it for the most part. Anyway, with about an hour or so left until rollover, we have 4 people with multiple votes (note, I haven't done my own vote count, so I'm currently counting on the one by Elandera about an hour ago) - Araris (5), Bard (3), Lumgol (2), Joe (2). Unless there end up being a lot more people in thread, at this point, to prevent an elim hammer on Elend (Fifth), these are the only viable options for lynch. Of these, I don't see any reason why we would want to lynch Joe right now. It's clear Joe is following along. It's clear that there's something weird going on with Joe's role...and I don't see any way we get any kind of answers about it today from Joe or from Fifth. So, voting on Joe is basically treading water and hoping we have enough votes to prevent the hammer. *Steel ninja (oh, OK...haha)* Lumgol - If Lum had more than 2 votes, I might consider this more serious, but I don't think this is really a valid lynch at this point either. So, Araris or Bard. Again, unless we can get a lot more people around in the last hour, my vote is going on one of these two. Off a first read through, I actually kind of like what Araris is saying, so I'm going to start on Bard. I should be around for most of the next hour or so and will be re-reading the thread during that time. If it ends up being 5-4, I will definitely move my vote over to Araris to prevent a last-minute tie. (If I'm reading correctly, a tie could result in each player being lynched...I don't think we want that yet)

I WILL get a vote back on this evening when I get home. Since there are no other votes on Adavantos, I don't see any need to leave my vote sitting there now that we've received a check in. Also, wow, for some reason I thought we were already in the second 24 hours. But nope, we have another full day. (not sure why I would have thought that since it's still mostly been everyone just checking in) Life is wonderful.

OK, glad other people noticed the potential for a D1 hammer by the elim team...so I shouldn't need to yell at people to get a train going. Given the timing, I should be around for most rollovers to help deter that. First thoughts, I'm torn on Randuir's strategy. While I understand the basics of the idea, making sure the entirety of the village is able to analyze your analysis and suspicions can't really be a bad thing. With Rand already having 2 votes, I'm not sure if I want to really get the bandwagon going. Seems kind of foolish to punish someone for spitballing a good deal. For now, I think Adavantos hasn't checked in yet?

Confirmed elim.

Great game by everyone, especially Kidpen, Rand, CadCom, Maill, and Joe (basically, the final 5 survivors). Not saying anyone else played poorly (actually, I'd argue that top to bottom, this is one of the best-played SE games I've been a part of), but the fact that the final couple cycles played out the way they did made for great theater. Also, terrific write-ups by Young Bard.

Ahhhhhhhh, that makes a lot of sense. I'll go fix those.

Well, current vote count: Alvron (4) - Randuir, xino, CadCom, Rath @Kidpen @A Joe in the Bush @Alvron - Any thoughts today? @Mailliw73 - Willing to put a vote down for the day? You seem to be implying Avron would be your vote. Also, CadCom seems to have blocked us from his profile? I think that's what makes those post links break? (Might have been due to the return of the standard CadCom avatar?)

I've been reading back through the thread...and I guess it's tough to quantify. I think it's the fairly carefree tone I'm getting. The vote on Steel D2 would have been good too. Pulling the vote off CadCom and then not voting at all D3 is a rough look that I guess could pull Maill down to lean village...but he's got the strongest village vibes left for me right now.

Whew, that post was up for quite a while, so I didn't want to edit it...and didn't want to double post. So, here is our current player base: Xino Randuir CadCom Alvron Kidpen Maill Rath Joe I'm expecting there to be two elims remaining, although three is not out of the question. Xino - slight elim read. The D1 interaction with Elandera reads as potentially pocketing. Other than that, Xino, as usual, has been keeping things fairly close to the vest. Rand - slight village read. As always, Rand is providing value/analysis regardless of alignment. CadCom - neutral read - a lot of this is dependent on how Alvron flips. Village.Alvron probably moves this to slight elim read Alvron - this is my vote for today unless someone can come up with some pretty compelling arguments otherwise Kidpen - still don't really have anything here. Definitely would like to hear more from you Kidpen. Maill - strong village read for now Joe - neutral read - Joe's votes thusfar have been Sart, Lumg, Steel. The first two of which didn't result in a lynch. Haven't gotten much in the way of rationale on these votes, but they seem reasonable...although based on other people's reasoning. Might be the best lynch target if Alvron flips elim.

I'll vote Alvron - Gameplay has been the most likely ally of Steel. I'm still not sure who I think the third elim might be. Rand made some good points about CadCom and I was already thinking that that wasn't the 3-man team (Steel, Alvron, and CadCom) At this point, I'm thinking xino might be elim #3. I'll start re-reading the thread to see where that's coming from, but I know that was one of the main possibilities I came up with when reading through yesterday. Also, @Randuir - Steel was almost definitely the killer of Lumgol since he had at least 11 breath. And yes, I know that probably puts a bit of a target on my back mentioning that, but I'll try to be as productive as possible today so all my input is out there. I don't think I've seen anyone in thread since I posted this...so edit: CadCom, this post doesn't make much sense from you: Here you note that "...Steel has such a village read from me..." But in this post you have Steel as your #2 suspect: And then here you note that he's back on the top of your suspect list: Edit #2 - I think I just answered my own question - I'm thinking 'from' really means 'on'...In other words, Steel was reading CadCom as village. Got it. Edit #3 - fixed the links after previous thread got merged.

I'm in.

That's a fair point on the first... On the second, you're actually misrepresenting what I said. (Oh how the turn tables have turned) I didn't say you were defensive, I said you had to defend. Also, a quick follow up on my thoughts about only 2/3 of Alvron, CadCom and Steel being elim - even if steel is elim, I highly doubt that all three of them would hammer the vote like that to save Steel yesterday. I guess it's possible, but in general I'd think it too early to put that kind of obvious tie across the entire elim team. Also, I guess regarding my prediction on elim team size, 3 seemed like a decent guess with 14 players? Although I guess 4 is possible as well. Kind of in that in-between level of players I'm thinking?

Oh, right, sorry, meant to type 'Maill and CadCom' not 'Mail and Steel'. Thanks. Also, good to know about the mechanics there.

Rand - "...do the elims get a kill..." - kind of sounds like an attempt to clear himself as a villager...but I know I've had times where I like to verify the specifics of rules that aren't explicitly defined. "Does that also happen with a kill made by a lifeless..." NAI Steel - *Third vote on Ark D1* - later claims to not be able to learn anything from Ark/Devotary lynch/kill D1. WHAT ARE YOU HIDING?! Seriously, though, I don't think there's ever really a lynch at least that you can't learn anything about. Night kill, maybe. I'll go back and take a look at what Devotary did D1 to see about that. But I'm not a fan of this kind of comment coming from village. Later backtracks on this statement after Rand calls it out. Has to defend against Maill calling out the sheep activity, but doesn't give a great response other than that it should be mostly NAI. *Second vote on Elandera D2* Maill - Auctioning off breath - I don't really see this as AI either way. Kind of a fun thing to throw into the game. *First vote on Ark D1* Calls out Steel for basically only voting on bandwagons. Sart - Reads heavy village D1 and definitely has CadCom in his sights... Unlikely they're on a team together at face value. I'm leaning that way, although a strong bus D1 when CadCom makes a couple of questionable posts could give Sart solid village cred through the rest of the game. *Third vote on Elandera D2* Joe - Joe has been around of course, but I'm not getting much to read so far. Kidpen - I've got nothing so far. CadCom - Votes on Ark to try to get Ark to remove vote. As others have mentioned, this seems an odd way to handle a D1 vote. Also has a 'sorry for voting on you Ark' post, which always rings a bit off anymore. *Second vote on Ark D1* Calls out xino potentially pocketing Elandera D1. Makes it slightly less likely that CadCom and xino are both elims. *First vote on Elandera D2* Alvron - Alvron's apparent defense of Steel (by voting on Elandera) is tough to rationalize. Also, the RP obviously makes it a bit tougher to get a read. *Fourth vote on Elandera D2* xino - Defends CadCom's vote, also, as I think someone else mentioned, seems like a possible pocket on Elandera D1 lynch - Steel claims to have not received any breath from Ark lynch, so that would be a maximum of 2 breath, which would have been given to Maill and Steel in order...which, according to later claims went to Lumgol before Lumgol was killed. (Unless they had any breath stored in items) Overall, Steel definitely seems the most suspicious to me. At this point, I think I could easily see an elim team of Alvron, CadCom, and Steel Edit #2 - I'm second-guessing that elim team already...I'm thinking it's more likely 2/3 of them. I'll post more later, just wanted to get this edit in before anyone else posted.

So, I don't have a ton of rationale on this vote yet, but I'm going to vote for CadCom. This is the first game I think I've ever had a gut feeling about CadCom and, for now, I think that's sufficient. I'll try to find what's setting me off on my third read-through. (Fortunately there are only like 3 pages of posts to go through and not 15)

Hey folks, sorry for being inactive over the weekend. Way more of an impact when that happens in a QF. First quick re-read and I'll note I probably would have voted on Lumgol last cycle. So take that for what you will. Based on CadCom's last post, I'd definitely like to hear who this other person is who supposedly passed breath onto Lumgol. That's some pretty suspicious timing for sure. I'll try to get something with a bit more substance up here shortly.

Naw, that wouldn't help me. If I'm reading that right, you're looking at ~15 hours from now? That's like 130am here...I go to bed at like 10. Never going to be able to make it work for everyone. Wasn't trying to complain, just making sure people know I won't be available for last-minute arguments.

Rather good timing on this one starting up. Never going to be around for rollover with this timing unfortunately.

I actually stopped watching the thread just before the two of you switched and then came back after the turn was over :/

Roast away.