Dalinar Kholin

1 hour ago, _Stick_ said:

@Dalinar Kholin if this wasn't what I'm pretty much convinced it was, why did you vote on araris without an explanation? 

B/c I assumed he was evil due to his post, so I thought the game was over but mind as well try to vote on him. No discussion was neccessary if the elims were revealing themselves

Araris, are you saying the game is over for the village? @Araris Valerian

How did you know they have two smokers? And how did you know they have four people? 

Now I'm confused...is araris a villager? Araris. Unless it's a double play? Why would little wislon tell us this was being called in from the elim's, wouldn't they not want her to say that?

Araris

Well, I'm sort of lost now... Clearly I've had a miserable game for identifying elim's. I'll need to think for a bit before I post anything else

I'm voting for Ecthellion. Fair point by Little Wilson on not having much evidence. I would like to add that he voted for Joe yesterday, with essentially no explanation if my memory serves. Most of my previous analysis was gut, also, Stick and Araris are on my suspicions list. It's almost more I know there are at least 3 elim's left, and I currently only have three people on my suspicions list. I think Ecthellion has the highest chance of being lynched out of the three, thus I think we should get him.

@A Joe in the Bush It's not over yet! If you die, the game will lose the little motivation for discussion it has. You don't need to give up! Vote for Ecthellion.

@_Stick_Why vote for Joe! That doesn't help us win this game. People can say we have to do it now, but if we lose Joe we lose discussion, plus if we hit an elim this turn we'll be in a much safer position to put a kill on Joe in the future, if we fail it won't really matter either way.

@Paranoid King If the elim's and neutrals were in full cahoots we'd be done for anyways. We mind as well go for it, if nothing else, at least it gives us an oppurtunity. Anwyways, our goal is to kill the elims, they can't dislike us for attempting to achieve our win con's. If we waste this lynch do you think more discussion is going to magically appear and give us an answer? It only helps the elims by killing one of the more active players.

@Araris Valerian I appreciate your reasoning for not voting for a stock vote. But we need your vote! If you keep it on Drake it will be nothing more than a statement of values. We understand your intent, but wouldn't Ecthellion be better then no elim at all! Even if it gives us very little information, it gives us a chance. Lynching other elim's might be better, but I feel most of the remaining elim's are medium to low radar.

@The Flash Vote for Ecthellion! It gives us a chance, if we can get a counterbandwagon rolling in these last 10 hours we might have a chance. But we need every single village vote we can scrape up for this. The neutrals are revealed. Every night the elim's kill it will take out a village, we need to lynch an elim, now!

@BrightnessRadiant I understand your wish to help the neutrals if they have helped the village in return, but why now! A: Joe helps keep discussion going, B even if you say this won't be a wasted lynch because of discussion or knowledge, please inform me what we have learned from today that will help as kill an elim next day. And C, if we don't kill an elim next couple of rounds we can roll over and help them out (or they can do it themselves with numbers plus elim help). But in later rounds there will be less discussion, thus we will lose less from spending a day lynching Joe then. We mind as well wait as long as possible, and when we're in a confident position, or have lost, we can kill Joe.

@cloudjumperThank you! 

Neutrals! I think this has been helpful information in identifying elim's, those who voted for Joe and are not neutrals are on my suspicion list now. What do you have to lose from lynching Joe later?

@STINKHelp lynch ecth just for chaoses sake!

Well guys, we're on the wire here. We need to coordinate a lynch, and not on a neutral. Ugh, clearly my analysis has been off since my gut vote on Yitzi. I'm a little suspicious of Aralis, but I think thats just playstyle. So I'm discarding that until later. Ecthellion is my best guess. Anyone else got something better? He (she?) has been very low profile all game, and just felt a little off for some reason.

Sorry, been at court for 14 hours of the last two days and am exhausted. I'll post more analysis tonight.

Current thoughts, suspicious of Striker, suspicious of Aralis, suspicious of Asterion. Those are my top 3 thoughts at the moment.

3 minutes ago, The Flash said:

Well I finally finished rereading 52 pages of text. That is a monster of a thread. 

Village reads: BR, Striker, Seonid, Crimsn, Arranae, Stick 

Neutral read: shqueeves, Stink, Wilson, Joe, Orlok, araris, elbereth, ecth

Slight elim reads: asterion, arinian, drake, dalinar 

Strong elim reads: PK, Elenion, cloudjumper. I am suspicious of their inactivity  (although some of it is legitimate) and a strong elim read off of some of their posts. I will vote on one of these three. 

 

Why do you have a strong elim read on PK? He was the first one to vote on Yitzi who is our only confirmed elim.

In response to Rae: Sorta gut read. Why try to get us to kill Stink? It's pretty clear he's neutral, it could be an attempt to waste another lynch, draw on the anger from yesterday in the vaccum that is todays discussion. Also, not very active. Slight elim read, I'd be okay with Len too, but not any good analysis why we should lynch him.

Wow, without aman, the thread has died. Ecthellion. That leaves stink as the thief...

Well, I think I've put those somewhere, but to be fair, I'll restate some points. A): with his vote on Asterion he was very cursory, provided very little reasoning, even when prodded, he just responded by regurgitating what others had posted. At the very least I'd give a village lean to asterion if he's evil. He's put out a lot of pm's early game, which could be an easy way of netting in information. He's also been very under the radar for the past couple of turns, ever since people starting talking about suspicions of him. He hasn't put out a strong defense against any of the substantial claims, ie. links to yitzi which I admitedly haven't looked deeply into.

Partially ninja'd by PK

Why do you think the straw lynch is unproductive?

20 minutes ago, _Stick_ said:

Hopefully I'll be more useful tomorrow morning, after I've gotten some sleep  

Also, she* 

No, we don't know who the thief's child, or the convict's ward are, I think.

also, she*  

edit: just wanted to pint out that the lynch rn is v easy to be manipulated by a soother/rioter, if the elims have one. But I guess they won't gain anything by delaying straws lynch if he really is evil 

Sorry bout that!

On 7/2/2017 at 1:18 PM, asterion137 said:

I have no vials left (I wanted to get them all used in case I died) and I don't think any other village allomancers have claimed except the ringleader so I think we should be good on future STINK steals. However I think we kind of have to kill STINK now that we showed this much hostility since there's no chance he helps the village at all anyway 

 

Emphasis Mine.

Asterion This does make me a little more suspicious. Convincing us to waste our lynch on a neutral (especially stink, there's no particular reason he won't help the village, he'll do what he wants), seems a little off to me. Especially right after people started getting off the Stink bandwagon. I'm really not sure what to make of Asterion;s playstyle overall, first time I've played with him. I'm suspicious of him, but that's about all.

Stick has been posting a lot of small posts, poking questions and commenting on stuff.

On 7/2/2017 at 2:31 PM, _Stick_ said:

._.

On 7/2/2017 at 1:30 PM, _Stick_ said:

We still can. Stink Straw 

I really hope Straw's an elim...

On 7/2/2017 at 1:14 PM, _Stick_ said:

...should be good news for you because you got to live?

edit: yeah, just read the good news above this >>

It's not our only kill, though, right?

On 7/2/2017 at 1:09 PM, _Stick_ said:

Okay I've thought some about this, and wasting a day doesn't seem like the best option. I think we may have overreacted a bit. Plus, now that he can't steal from the Ringleader, I think we're fine, mostly. Like, he's going to steal more vials, of course, but that his win condition so...I doubt he knows who all the elims are, as Aster suggested [I, at least, wouldn't reveal my whole team's identities to a neutral when making a deal with them] so I think it's unlikely that he'll only steal from villagers now. I don't know how many of us role-claimed to him, [I didn't] but if we're worried about him giving all the info to the elims later, as Rand said, he might as well say it all here in the thread. Three people already public-roleclaimed because of that....I'm not sure if it's worth lynching him. What else could he do to help the elims? [This isnt a rhetorical quesion, btw]. If most of us agree on this, I could remove my vote and place it on someone else [like Straw]. 

It's this final post that gives me a village lean. I don't like all the people who are suggesting we'll need to lynch stink at some point, makes me suspicious. He also mentioned that he's been "lazy," which maybe explains all of the small posts (that gave me a more a going under the radar vibe.

Crimson: My main thought on crimson comes from day 2 when he joined the neutral bandwagon on Randuir. If Randuir is evil this would give him a heavy village lean in my mind. My initial impression is that he was a neutral, do we know all neutrals now? He's been pretty low profile, but I suspect that's an experience thing, I've never played with him before so I'm unfamiliar with his playstyle. Very little read on him.

@randuir Is that satisfying?

Ironically, Stink was the first one to suggest this lynch. Straw. Been my best guess for a while.

32 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

Haha.. I think the Yitzi vote only took place on like the 3rd to last page if that helps in your research 

Edit: cuz I'm nice....here are the votes on Yitzi day 1 lol

1. Lopen starts the train: below

2. Aman assists with adding fuel to the train: above

3. I become first class passenger on the train: below

4. Seonid climbs on board as well: below

Ninja'd by Aman but I can't move these links on mobile or delete them without deleting the whole post lol

Nice! This is good to have. Makes you village in my mind. Same with Lopen. I think my main suspicion at the moment is Straw, I'll go back at some point to back that up with evidence, but it feels like he's trying to go under the radar right now, especially with his voting on Asterion. If he's evil, it means Asterion is probably good. Anyone have good reason why he wouldn't be evil?

5 minutes ago, BrightnessRadiant said:

@Dalinar Kholin Lopen and I voted Yitzi day 1 ... does that count for something lol 

That's true  I was just referring to what the day two vote tells us. I don't want to go back and read the monstrosity that is day one again until I absolutely need too...

7 minutes ago, randuir said:

How clear do you think it was, based on the D2 thread?

And Aman explained that during the day, odd though his reasoning might be.

I will need to look back at the thread. I only remember him explaining why he voted on Asterion initially.

Well, I'd guess elim's at any point would want to save one of their own. They don't have that many people, so losing any one of their number is a blow. However, their greatest asset is staying hidden. So if they could sacrifice one of their cause in order to clear themselves, it is in their interests to do so. My rough guess would be anyone who voted on Yitzi before Aman's post is somewhat cleared, or at least heavy lean village. Those who voted afterwards are less meaningful. It's possible for elim's to quickly conclude that Yitzi was dead and sacrifice him in order to try and clear themselves. @StrikerEZ Why did you vote for Asterion after Aman's post and only change to Yitzi later? Arranae, I'd argue is leaning village because she jumped early, Flash maybe too, when it was still close, but I wouldn't say it says anything about anyone else.

Did Straw not end up voting on anyone? And how clear do we think it was to the elim's that Yitizi would die after Aman made his post? Aman, why did you end up voting on Asterion?

2 minutes ago, STINK said:

seriously can we just lynch straw already

If Asterion turned out to be good I'd definitely be down. I've been suspicious of Straw for a while.

10 minutes ago, randuir said:

Basically, he'd been in the same camp as Aman for all of D1, and his one post in the Night cycle was him distancing himself from that occurence, which could have been to allow Elim!Asterion to not seem too odd when he started voting on me and Aman. It's hardly my strongest piece of evidence, and even if Asterion is an elim, this might not have been premeditated. still, it stood out to me.

You haven't made 8 posts this cycle, so I don't find it odd that you haven't responded to Aman yet. I'm not saying that everyone that just goes with the flow is an elim, but it is something an elim might do because it's easier to not slip up if you aren't continually trying to start lynches and coming up with opinions on people that most people in the thread aren't even considering. Regarding the comparison between Asterion and you, if you'd made as many posts as Asterion, and given as few opinions on non-target-of-the-moment people, I would be suspicious of you too, but for better or worse, that's not the case.

 

Fair responses. Thank you Aman for responding succintly as well. I'll wait and see what  @asterion137  has to say.

2 hours ago, randuir said:

Alright, on to @asterion137. His first two posts of the first day stand out to me in a bad way:

This feels to me like he's trying to generate suspicion of Straw and/or STINK without actually having to commit himself. The first post gives me that vibe more than the second one (without context, I'd say the second post was NAI).

His arguments after that are for the most part good arguments about why I'm probably not an elim, and if he wasn't contradicting himself so badly in D2, I'd consider him village based on this.

He only posts once during the night, despite it being 48 hours long. He comments that he doesn't like the Jondesu swing at all. In and of itself I'd say this is NAI, but it's also a good set-up for his swing on me and Aman this cycle.

Anyway, he uses his first 4 posts this cycle to try to figure out how to crack the code BR put in the thread, despite it not being meant for him. This could both be a curious villager or an elim action though, so it's NAI.

His decision to start voting one me seems really strange though. He seemed rather convinced that I was in fact village during D1, and I don't think I've said or done anything that would explain a sudden change of heart since then (If I had, asterion should be bringing that up). His reasoning is that he doesn't like how people voted to try and save me (and several others, I might add), but he's ignoring the fact that he justified his vote on Straw with pretty much the same reason:

If I was an elim, and the elim team was willing to go to such extreme lengths to try and save me, Asterion should honestly be one of the main suspects.

So overall, I'd been getting a net village vibe from him D1, and a definite elim vibe D2. There's also something else I've noticed:

Unlike Striker, Asterion also hasn't reacted to Aman's request for reads on a number of people. From striker I'm getting the impression that he is (at least trying to) keep notes and have opinions on people, while Asterion is playing far more reactively. Though a reactive play-style is NAI, most people that play that way do appear to have opinions on people other than the ones currently being considered for the lynch, and I'm really not getting that impression from Asterion. This suggests to me that he might be an elim that's just going with the flow, which elims, unlike villagers, can afford to do as long as none of their people are being voted on

So I'm going to vote on Asterion137 now. However, @StrikerEZ, I'd really like to see that big post you've been talking about, preferably before the start of the next day cycle if you can manage that. If you don't have time for everyone, just talking about a couple more people should allay some concerns and suspicions I have about you.

I agree with his suspicions on Straw (not on stink, but that's merely because of his playstyle). How does him not liking swings set him up for a swing?

I'd like a response from Asterion on the flip. I respect his argument about the vote switch, even if I disagree that it means one should vote for you.

I haven't reacted to the suggestions by Aman either, does that indicate I am an elim playing with the flow? Because that's what an elim would do, isn't that exactly what an elim would want not to do? (of course, I'm biased there, but thats more opinion). Sure, Asterion, could be an elim, but I don't see strong evidence to support it.