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Stick.

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Everything posted by Stick.

  1. Stick.
    Yeah like I said, I'm not familiar with Shining's playstyle so I can't really make confident assumptions about their risk appetite but from what they've said I'd be willing to bet they're one of the more cautious players. @Anyone who's played with them before - please weigh in on this. Tbh I don't know if there absolutely has to be an elim on the Squeeves train (although this comes with the knowledge of my own alignment). But if we assume e!Shining for a second, their vote on Squeeves brought it up to 3-2-2 between myself, Shining, and Squeeves. But it's important to note that their vote came after Mat explicitly said he'd be okay with moving his vote to Squeeves if other people moved there. And sure enough he did, after an hour, bringing it up to 3-3 between myself and Squeeves. At this point, it's in the interests of both alignments to break the tie because just like the elims want one less player to deal with, the village wants a flip to work with. After Mat's vote was cast, both exe candidates were v so it was safe play for elims so they could sit back with their popcorn if they wanted. Wiz broke the tie, and I think I maintain my mild v-read of them for now. Also - TUN. Why are people village reading them, again? I don't know how I feel about that self-vote because it exudes nonchalance and given the state of the votes at that point I would think the elims were pretty unconcerned about the exe.
  2. Stick.
    Honestly my vote on Shining has little to do with their D1 in isolation and more to do with their N1 explanation of their D1 thought-process. I’m aware that I’m hyperfixating on this post and the one preceding it because it feels straight out of an elim mindset and too self-aware. I would like to highlight these parts in particular: Speaking of the village as a separate entity, the conscious caution being taken against scrutiny, etc. I don’t think I’ve played with Shining before so I can’t tell if this is alignment indicative behaviour from them but it sets of alarms for me. im going to sleep now
  3. Stick.
    You asked why I didn't join the Wiz wagon to save myself - my answer is that I would not vote on somebody I didn't suspect (Wiz) just to save myself when I could vote on someone I did suspect (Araris) and actually contribute to solving the game by voting where I think I should vote. You said "The kill would also make sense since Stick was consistently voted on by Araris right up until an hour before rollover." If Conq had moved to me/Araris/Mat and had been followed by xino, the resulting flip would've pointed us straight to xino's train in the next cycle, no? Counter wagons are often the first places we look after a village flip (especially one with many vote movements) so a little bit of vote analysis would've been enough to potentially root out all the elims. Maybe I'm reading too much into it - in any case, I don't think I want to vote Conq today as I'm happy with my Shining vote but others that I can consider are JNV and Squeeves. edit: @The Wandering Wizard is this purely gut? What do you think of the cases others have brought up like JNV and Squeeves? Conq? Thoughts on Shining?
  4. Stick.
    Yes those are good points. Everything being single-use does throw a wrench into things - and I was thinking about your 3-4 elim hypothesis and I think that might actually make some sense if the team consists of mostly newer/less-experienced players? That could also possibly explain why xino's exe had relatively little resistance given their role. Otherwise I really don't see a 4-player team. 3, maaaaybe. Perhaps they didn't anticipate xino would actually die I laughed. uhhh okay there's a lot of wrongness in this paragraph here cuz Araris didn't even have his vote on me until later on in the cycle so the only vote on me at that stage was Kas which seemed like a poke vote and I wouldn't exactly call that "a lot of pressure" Why would I vote on Wiz if I didn't suspect them? And about the timings of my posts, I kind of do live across the world from you. And Araris wasn't "consistently" voting me either he had like two or three other votes throughout the course of that turn. This is plain reaching.
  5. Stick.
    Yeah no turns out I was using the the wrong (and erroneous) vote count as my main reference that didn't take illwei's switch into account. Below is the actual state of the vote count right before Wiz unvoted Araris: So Wiz unvoting did indeed bring it down to 2-2-2 between Mat, xino, and myself. But my village read of Wiz was based on Araris having three votes, not two. But now that's faulty reasoning, so that read doesn't hold anymore. What's interesting enough to note is that Wiz's retraction closely followed illwei's (2 minutes later, to be specific). @The Wandering Wizard did your retraction have anything to do with illwei's vote switch? Though all things considered, I would actually still put Wiz down as mild village because I agree with Kas that the whole thing with xino's vote on them seems a bit too risky to be a distancing tactic. I keep circling back to possible e!vote-manip powers that could've been integrated into the elims D1 game-plan. Our inability to anticipate things like that is bound to lead us to big assumptions like how 'close' the votes ever really were. @Illwei @Matrim's Dice was anybody seen lurking during EoD apart from xino? JNV's made a single post and it looks huge but reading it thrice tells me there's nothing really much substantial in it (note: Slight defence in Mat's favour). Also sidenote their interpretation of my reasoning for the Araris vote is just wrong lol. I never got around to responding to that, but I no never said explaining things was bad, just that the explanation for the explanation was unnecessary. Here's the vote count after JNV's vote: Depending on when exactly JNV started typing up that post, Kas' vote might've still been on me at that time. I can definitely see how this vote looks opportunistic. @JNV was Kas' vote change a ninja?
  6. Stick.
    Before Shining placed their vote on xino, the votes looked like this: Wiz(1): Mat Mat(1): TUN, Araris Stick(1): Kas TUN(1): illwei I think it's possible that it their vote was originally meant to be a harmless distancing vote but as things escalated: this reasoning assumes they knew xino's flip before the flip even happened. (quote from last turn) On the other hand I do feel good about Wiz because of their Araris vote retraction. Pre-retraction, the leading exe was Araris with 3 votes (with xino and I following-up with 2 votes each). So if wiz had kept their vote on Araris, xino would've been safe but their retraction brought it down to 2-2-2. So leaning village there. After this, illwei retracted off Mat and Araris switched to xino, turning it to 3-1-1-1-1-1. Araris was arguably the pivotal vote there - admittedly, if I were evil I'd probably try to push the 'Araris loves bussing teammates' narrative so I agree that the kill choice there is mildly surprising. Only mildly, because Araris' vote switch was kinda crucial there. I actually very much hate the fact that we don't get PMs cuz there clearly isn't much action coordination going on and I deliberately did not speak of Araris last turn so that the elims don't go after him with the kill for being 'cleared'.
  7. Stick.
    Okay wait I'm an idiot and skimmed way too quickly over your post there earlier but I understand now xino voted Mat first and then deleted that text and voted Kas. I was assuming Mat's "Oh he's voting Kas now" meant that he'd got ninjad by xino. I see what you're saying, but I don't think it's that definitive, if that makes sense? A lot of the times elims on death row do things without reason
  8. Stick.
    fjlsfklsd I realised... What I'm getting off EoD is that illwei/Mat probably not e/e. Their xino vote timestamps are too close that I have trouble imagining they're teamed. But right as I'm typing this I'm thinking of LG74. But I think I'll shove the paranoia aside for now. Not e/e. I don't see a reason to clear either of them though. @Matrim's Dice would you have tried to push harder for a Kas exe if there was more time in the turn, given xino's vote? Conq, similarly, doesn't get cleared imo cuz I think that with half an hour left of the cycle the vote was more or less decided (barring last minute shenanigans) and in fact I agree with illwei in that can see Conq's vote as a distancing attempt. The only problem is, this was a kill role. It definitely makes a bus harder to swallow but there's the possibility that the elims have vote manip that they wanted to use to sway the votes in their favour. If this was the case, I'd feel better about illwei's and Mat's vote last-minute contributions. That first line there seems particularly tailored to refute the argument that this could've been a distancing vote. I don't know what to make of Kas just yet. Xino's vote definitely stands out. This has implications that are possibly very incriminating.
  9. Stick.
    Shining
  10. Stick.
    Heh, that's the kill role. I feel good about this considering my demise in LG86. Though actually that was arguably way worse. But it's the small things yk yk. I actually wouldn't be too quick to clear anybody off that vote (though I've yet to properly read that EoD). I'll be back with some clearer points soon.
  11. Stick.
    But Illwei barely ever explains stuff That’s their MO. My vote on you isn’t retaliatory - like I explained, it’s more because that other stuff sticks out to me as suspicious. Good, thanks I think Conq might’ve made a genuine mistake there cuz TUN initially signed up with that Matrim name. also! Im turning in for the night soon and won’t be on before rollover. I might check in real quick maybe a couple of hours before rollover before heading out for uni.
  12. Stick.
    Ummmmm no @Shqueeves @Turtle @JNV how are you doing? I don’t like this post. The part where you needed to explain why you’re talking it out seems off to me, like, explaining things has always been part of the game, no? Seems a tad hyper-aware. It’s also very r00d that despite all this talk of giving reasoning you have none for your vote there xD (I know, I know, D1 and whatnot but it’s funny regardless.) Araris
  13. Stick.
    Unimaginable I'd also mistaken Mat's vote on Wiz to be on TUN until literally just now, actually. Saw TUN's reactionary vote on Mat and somehow assumed Mat's earlier vote was on TUN cuz that's usually how them D1 squabbles go lol. Hadn't given much thought to TUN's vote for that reason but now I'm unsure what to think of it. I can see the 'no one will die' comment as an elim trying to give off a village mindset, but it also just seems kinda arbitrary. Also I'm missing something - why is Wiz suspicious? @Matrim's Dice @Kasimir I mean they hadn't even posted before Mat's vote which made it look like a random D1 vote but you say there's a reason, Mat?
  14. Stick.
    Wait there’s no PMs? :[ True, and I actually kinda like it that way. Easier to follow Yeah it seems like I’m the only player without an RP name xD Stiiik is fine.
  15. Stick.
    I'm in!
  16. Stick.
    I don’t have school but I am traveling which isn’t compatible with the short cycles of a QF at all so I’ll spectate.
  17. Stick.
    Well damn Couple of things - will echo JNV’s comment about how it was kinda hard for us to have much control over the game when the Adjunct wincon relied heavily on randomness (our faction ability) and on the mercy of others (donations). I was constantly knocking on people’s doors via PMs and I’ll admit it was a lot of work - other players simply did not have much incentive to give away all their breath to another faction especially when said faction isn’t instrumental to their own win. For the Doves, the natural faction to win with were always the Edgli’s who had a passive wincon (more on this below). Not to mention the restrictions that came with Returned passing breath and passing breath being an “all-or-nothing” situation. We also couldn’t ever consider actually using any cool actions cuz breath+action economy plus we were on a constant time crunch except we didn’t have a reliable deadline for perspective either. More randomness factors in here in terms of how the CE act (and when) cuz that clearly had huge impacts. I also don’t think the Edgli wincon was hard enough I mean the main thing that kept me from fully trusting/working with the Edgli’s was that weird wincon like wasn’t it too easy? Like especially with the faction protect action being allowed to be used on the same player consecutively and the Returned basically having no incentive to not immediately claim to the Edgli’s. This isn’t to say I didn’t have fun tho so shoutout to JNV for being a great teammate and also to Xino who perished early sorry Xino. We were super close so I’ll go ahead consider this a win idk about you GG, thanks Steel and Devo!
  18. Stick.
    Does the Revenge action not protect the targeted player as well? I just kinda assumed they did. But yeah, if they don’t, HOID could be the NK. However, given last cycle’s extra kill, it’s possible the HOID kill wasn’t the elim kill and the elim kill target happened to be a Returned. @Steeldancer will the write up announce a Returned surviving an attack?
  19. Stick.
    That's the expected assumption, yes, but here: You essentially say that Sart targeted someone with a Lifeless (which caused the kill to boomerang back to Sart), implying that the HOID kill was not the NK.
  20. Stick.
    I agree - Archer's evolved into what is functionally a serial killer (with a kill, might I add) so I think everyone benefits from agreeing on this one. Archer
  21. Stick.
    Way to reveal yourself as the last elim Who’s to say the HOID kill weren’t the elims?
  22. Stick.
    Bard
  23. Stick.
    NOOO WHAT HOW That is a decent amount of breath lost (unfortunately, kills occur before passing breath in the OoA) - whoever killed Xino please consider passing your breath to me as an apology gift ty <3
  24. Stick.
    Might as well TUN
  25. Stick.
    Wow Also the missing GM of LG31 has returned?? Hi Conquestor it's been five years
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