Stick.
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Everything posted by Stick.
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It’s been so long welcome back!!! I was hoping to play but I’m probably going to be traveling the exact day this game starts >> Also I was so so sure Snapshot was not Reckoners canonically
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Whew. I actually had to set an alarm to be up at 6:45 am ON A SUNDAY to do those EoD shenanigans. Smh. Some things you probably want to know if you don’t have time to go through our doc: - For like the fist half of D1, JNV and I didn’t even know we had two other teammates - By the time I logged off for the day Xino hadn’t yet told us about them being a coinshot - We tried to bus me D2 but idk it didn’t work And by the time D4 rolled around I was kinda tired of playing the passive elim and I knew I didn’t want to keep doing that for like another week. Plus there were wayy too many cleared villagers that my shot at solo eliming my way to the win seemed iffy at best too. So I figured we’d either win as 2e or not at all. Sorry for risking your win JNV and Xino Thanks @Ashbringer and @Devotary of Spontaneity for running the game!
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Stick
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Aaaand that's game. Cuz there's only room for one vote manip in this thread yknow what I mean DIE VILLAGE AHAHAHAH edit: wait it's not 6:59 yet.,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,,
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Turtle
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Ok. Sorry about that Archer, but I think I’m satisfied knowing we addressed the e!votemanip possibility because the game-ending scenario was honestly just really worrying. Next cycle I’m committed to the turtle exe - no detours (from my end) I promise.
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Archer
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I would also rather go for archer, for what it’s worth
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Okay cool TUN
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They couldve forced a tie this cycle in that scenario but they’d be outnumbered in next cycle so they couldn’t have won that way
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Mat I feel like you did not read my post
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If they have vote manip they aren’t gonna use it this turn obviously since there’s no need to. Like I said:
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I think Archer/Turtle can’t be e/e because they seem to have no problem exeing them today. With e!turtle dead, e!Archer simply does not have the numbers to outnumber the village in the next exe. And yeah, I think that team is relatively balanced because first, it’s got 4 players rather than 3, which would’ve been the expected team size. And second, the roles seem powerful enough to counter the lack of loud players in the team. Look I don’t trust Turtle at all and 100% think we should be exeing them, just maybe not this cycle because of the looming threat of the vote manip ending the game. Worst case scenario Archer flips green. Then what? We can just exe turtle next cycle and even if there is one more elim with turtle, we won’t immediately lose as they don’t have vote manip to tip the scales edit: Yes they’ve got experience but in terms of thread control/presence, they tend to be on more on the lower-active side
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Was frustrated at the lack of flip so voted without giving it a thought but: Now that I’ve had some time to chew on it - Why the heck did the elims kill Kas?? It makes zero strategic sense since there was a good likelihood of him offering himself up to get exe’d again - that along with the general paranoia surrounding him since illwei’s flip would’ve made for an effortless misexe. It’s not like Kas had reads any different from the general PoE that everyone seems to share at the moment (he was pushing for turtle, same as everyone else) - so why kill him? It’s simple - Kas had claimed vote manip last day turn. This indicates to me the elim(s) is worried about vote imbalance causing damage to their gameplan. If Turtle is our last elim, I don’t see how removing a single-shot vote manip improves their chances of survival against <six> villagers, especially when they’re our primary target in any case. Except now, Archer claims vote manip. AND, he’s hinting at the possibility of two remaining elims. And I think he might be right. Pragmatically, I simply do not see Ash creating a 3-player elim team of <xino, jnv, turtle> and thinking it’s fair to have them play against players with significantly more experience (Kas, illwei, Araris, Mat, me). It has to be four people. Similarly, swap Turtle with Symph and it still doesnt make sense for only three elims to exist. For a second, if we consider the possibility of e!Archer and another teammate, then we are standing at lylo. Let’s run the numbers: So in this case Ash will probably call the game after this turn. I will note that Archer revealing the vote manip after Shining has used their kill is further indicative of e!Archer. Now, since everyone apart from me has graciously role-claimed, they don’t have to fear getting attacked during N4. The chances of there being more coinshots is negligible in any case. (Not that it matters now but I had Awareness which I used on Kas N2.) The fact that they are not worried about me possibly having vote manip indicates to me that JNV probably scanned me. I very seriously doubt that Archer’s going to use his vote manip this turn. Why’d he claim? 1)People are generally more inclined to trust you after you role-claim unprompted, so free village cred and 2)Given how unanimous we are to this exe, he can later argue that there was no need to use it. Archer’s been giving off MR56 and LG87 vibes plain and simple. (For those unaware, in MR56 he false-claimed right off the bat during D1 when there was quite literally no need to, and later lied about an incriminating role-scan as a reaction test - all to gain village cred. In LG87, Steel’s faction game, again it was lie after lie @Matrim's Dice would remember). Here, the challenge to Wiz, unnecessary reaction tests, and lies are just not sitting right with me and it all points to e!Archer. Also, as far as I recall, Archer is usually properly-versed with the rules before going into a game so that major rule misunderstanding from last turn is uncharacteristic for him too and I could see it being intentional, perhaps aiming for a derp-clear. My theory is that we’re looking at e!Archer+e!TUN. By blocking the turtle kill, they’ve given TUN the buffer they need. If the turtle kill was successful and they flipped village, everyone had more or less agreed to exe TUN next. Even if they then use Archer’s vote manip to cause a tie D4 to save TUN, they don’t have the numbers on D5 as it would be 2-3. Additionally, Archer’s coinshot bluff also makes sense here because by claiming coinshot they created the environment for any real coinshots to come forward and claim because obviously it raised worrying distro questions that <had> to be resolved. If no one had come forward to claim, they could have simply said what they said anyway - that it was a reaction test for Turtle. It was a win-win either way. Can I see a <xino, JNV, symph, TUN> team with a coinshot, scanner, protect, and vote manip playing against this game’s village roster? Absolutely. Would appreciate everyone’s thoughts on this. I could be wrong, but I think it’s worth giving a shot considering this could be lylo if I’m right. If I’m wrong, at least we don’t wake up to the Aftermath thread. Turtle Archer
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Turtle
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I can maybe see the elim team having 2 coinshots if all members are low-actives/lesser-experienced considering we’ve already had 2 village protect roles. That could explain why they didn’t fight so hard for Xino. My thoughts in detail can be found in last turn’s thread but here’s where I’m at: Wiz is solidly village, Mat and Kas I’m still leaning village albeit not as strong as last cycle. <TUN, Turtle, Shining, Archer> is where the my suspicions lie mostly. If Archer can get turtle’s flip then great, since I don’t think there’s much we can get off an exe discussion on them. I still very much do not see sufficient reasoning to clear Shining but I still need to properly read the last two pages from last turn so I’ll be doing that soon Will point out that e!TUN could just use the elim kill on somebody and simultaneously protect that player for village cred
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@Kasimir kind of in a hurry at the moment so I'll keep it brief - barring a bus (e!illwei, I suppose) the lack of defence for xino D1 points to absent teammates and that boils down to <Archer, Turtle, TUN>. I include TUN because at some point they admitted to have been absent during the crucial periods of the exe. I agree that Turtle's posts contain little actual information and the fact that they seem allergic to voting isn't helping either but the PoE is PoEing yknow. For what it's worth, I think this here: should be indicative of something. My gut says this was a genuine attempt at a helpful contribution (the post feels agenda-free) but also I will admit I don't really understand what that post is trying to put out in the first place. Tone-wise, they seem alright. Not a fan of JNV's subtle defence for them though. And speaking of which - illwei. JNV accepting the low-activity team idea plus the comments favouring v!illwei do make me lean more e than before.
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IMO JNV has a moderate risk appetite but I also just don't see this instance to be of high risk. In the same post, JNV replied to illwei's TUN exe proposal with a hedgy answer (would consider TUN as an option but open to re-evaluations). If JNV really wanted TUN dead, why not go all in? If you're gonna go as far as to suggest a player be coinshot, why dance around the idea of exe'ing them? It's weird to me that they chose to respond to that post at all, given that their vig kill suggestion already implied an answer.
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<TUN, Shining, Turtle, Archer, illwei> Taking Kas out because I don't see why e!Kas would resign himself to the exe like that - sure, it could be an all-or-nothing gamble where he either gets exe'd and loses the game or gets widely accepted as v!Kas, in which case it's smooth sailing till lylo. Question is, though, would e!Kas decide that one unexplained vote was enough of a threat to warrant a gamble such as this? It doesn't seem terribly productive to me. About JNV's post from last turn calling on coinshots to take a hit at TUN/Wiz - I personally don't see how that points to v!TUN. Simply because what reason did anybody have to take JNV's advice there? JNV wasn't trusted enough for this post to have any actual impact (evident from the actual vig kill last night). As far as I recall, not one player was village-reading them. I can't imagine JNV typing this and thinking anybody was actually going to follow through on the request. Not to mention the fact that what they really said was 'kill these people but also don't, because IKYKs'. It makes for the perfect, low-risk distancing. That's...huh. Looking at that particular post, I'd point out that in this post they did sneak in that little 'if anyone has particularly good reasoning for an exe candidate, I'll consider voting someone else, just give me the reasoning'. But the problem is that they didn't, especially when my exe was right there. Hm. WHYY do Shining's (seeming) motivations not match their actions smh. I see Mat's argument, suppose I wouldn't mind an illwei exe today. But overall I am considerably more suspicious of TUN, hence my vote.
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Wait actually that's a good point now that you mention it @Ashbringer which kill comes first? In the rules they're lumped together
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I mean, yeah. But that said, he’s boldly lied as an elim before when there was literally no actual need to do so (about his role in MR56 and a reaction test similar to this one also in MR56) so while I wouldn’t vote on him for this I don’t have any reason to be village-reading him at the moment.
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Ah yes, because Symph has totally not been offline since D2
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Ookay. Time to milk this. JNV's Posts Day 1: They only posted once during D1 and I've talked about it before but long story short they summarise the turn so far and cast a vote on me because they didn't like my reasoning for the Araris vote. Here's the status of the votes before they voted: I wonder why they didn't just vote on Araris. Instead they left it at 3-2-2 between Araris, xino, and myself. Perhaps they wanted to spread the votes out in an attempt to defend xino in a not-so-obvious way? Also worth noting that they chose not to vote on TUN. Other things of note from this post: suspcion thrown on TUN and taken back (much like xino's own opinion). They also call Wiz out for voting Araris. Potential distancing Night 1: There is no post N1 Day 2: First post of D2 explains their C1 vote, an gives opinions on a bunch of people most of which really just amount to 'null'. What's interesting is their conflicting stances on illwei in the same post. Goes from "Illwei well I never get Illwei" to "Illwei Ive actually been feeling pretty good about Illwei this game" so I guess that's worth noting. They also admit that Shining is suspicious but do not vote on them. The only player they village-read in a mildly straightforward way is Kas. Their second D2 post comes about 4 hours before rollover, with the vote count being: Then they vote on me - not much to say about this really. While they kinda expressed suspicion on Shining in their previous post, their opinion seems to have shifted drastically here: Bit of a tangent here but Kas and Mat both voted JNV very early on in the cycle. Kas initially votes TUN but changes to JNV in the same post, while putting <Shining, Stick, Shqueeves> in orange. Kas changes to Squeeves about 24 hours later, resulting in the VC: I think there's some significance in Kas' vote shift - it ignites the Shqueeves counterwagon. Re-visit this. Night 2: They posted once N2 and man the amount of flip-flopping on Shining is just very weird idk. They seemed very confident in Shining being an absolute 'no go' during the day turn but here they say: I feel like their opinion on Shining varied by every post and I don't think that's a good indicator. In this post they also contemplate all possibilities (elim on Shqueeves/no elim on Shqueeves/e!Stick/v!Stick) but they don't commit to any view so it's all useless. Honestly someone else should go and read that post just in case because I have a headache now (JNV for the love of god please consider using punctuation). In response to illwei suggesting a TUN exe they say: The first half of that sentence makes them sound non-committal - so while they agree to consider TUN as an option for the exe they've also created grounds for changing this view, for 'more options and re-evaluation'. I think at this point I'm only village reading Mat and no one else (maaaaybe Wiz???). After ISOing JNV I think the last elim lies among <TUN, Shining, Kas, illwei, Turtle>. Logically I shouldn't have illwei in there but I know she's a ruthless distancer and I'm not falling for the same trap again lol. Archer I cannot possibly have a read on and I don't think Turtle has ever voted? Would appreciate a vote this cycle @Turtle In response to Shining's post from last turn: That's not what I meant - you said you were afraid that 'the village' would rip your post to pieces trying to find incriminating evidence if you unvoted xino. This is strange to me because elims also have equal motivation to rip V!Shining's post to pieces if they can use it as reason to misexe you. So speaking of only the village in that scenario as opposed to just 'everyone' rubs me the wrong way. In the spirit of not tunnelling on Shining I'll go TUN for now but honestly I'm itching to just vote Shining again lol.
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That's very interesting. Considering the adverse effects of defending Mat there, I guess it's not unreasonable to consider that they might've decided to approach things at a different angle this time around. Right! The JNV train - it dissolved quickly once the other trains gained traction. Think it's worth looking into next turn. Given that this was probably the only real opinion xino ever shared I feel like it has to mean something - although I do remember tirelessly pursuing some random player E!Araris name-dropped once in some game (before unexpectedly getting exe'd C1), eventually exeing that player and getting the green flip. So while I wouldn't say that interaction alone is worth exeing TUN, it does seem like distancing to me. Their self-vote from last turn, though, sticks out to me because I vividly remember E!TUN doing that in QF61. I've...been thinking about this. It's a struggle trying to read Kas this game because his C1 was different due to RL reasons than his C2 so I don't know how much stock I should be putting into my gut here. The procrastinator in me wants to shelve it for now though
