DeTess

Yeah, I've just had a PM with brightness, and I'm convinced she didn't back off from Yitzi on D1 to save him. I'll take a look at Stick and crimsn in a bit.

I quickly checked, and the vote that properly brought Yitzi in the lead over Asterion was @StrikerEZ. The votes after that Where BR, Seonid, Elenion and Lopen. Aman seems to be convinced Lopen is good, and Elenion had a reasonably good reason to come late in the voting as well, but I'm going to have to take a good look at Seonid and BR when I've got the time. Also, the voting at the end of D1 should be re-examined, as it is now not unreasonable to think that it was an elim-backed effort to ensure Yitzi didn't die. The votes on Jondesu where: Joe has claimed Neutral, and so has Orlok, so that leaves Crimsn, Stick and Brightness on this particular vote as possible elims stepping in to try to save Yitzi. I kinda don't like that BR features in both these lists, but I've had village reads on her until now, so it could just be coincidence. I'm adding Crimsn and Stick to my list of people I should take another look at, though. Edit: Seonid did vote on Yitzi D1 as well, so based on that he can actually be considered village, as I wouldn't expect elims to really participate in a potential lynch of one of their own D1.

I said I'd look at Yitzi, and I have, though I had to rush through his posts of this day (he posted a lot). I've mentioned this before, but D1 I got a village vibe from him. Yes, he voted on me, but now that I've looked it over more closely he seemed to have been using the same reasoning I used to vote for Joe against me, and turn-about is fair play, I guess. His discussion with Aman about me also made sense, and him backing off when all his concerns and suspicions had been treated makes me lean slightly village on him (an elim would probably have tried to dodge a discussion with Aman if he though he could get away with it). N1 he did say those odd things about the elims being afraid of Aman, which make me lean a bit elim on him. I thought it was especially notable that he could dig up that quote within one minute of Flash asking about it. Based purely on D1 and N1, which I went through with a fine comb, I end up with a Neutral read. Taking D2 into account, I still don't really see why a lot of people are extremely suspicious of him. Trying to go after Aman would have been an odd thing to do if we assume he is an elim and his comment about Aman being scary came from the doc: if the elims are so scared of Aman, why would they try to take him down in a straight up battle of reasoning, instead of using the elim kill? That would only make sense if they had strong reason to believe he was a thug with a large supply of pewter. Going after Aman was odd, but he wasn't the only one (Seonid, for example), so it might really have just been a villager who thought he'd caught an elim. Or it could have been an elim attempt to get him lynched because he thought his argument was good enough. I really don't know at this point. Overall read: Neutral/leaning very slightly elim. I might change my mind if I look through D2 more closely, but at the moment I'm not suspicious enough of yitzi to change my vote.

I quickly looked it up, and the winners of the contest that allows them to pick a non-sanderson game are @Wyrmhero, @Madagascar and @Sart. I believe Madagascar has already made her choice (the MLP game was her choice, I believe), but he others can still greenlight one.

I'm not going to vote Yitzi yet before I get the chance to do my own analysis of him, and I want to do this when I've got my head on right, so that's going to be tomorrow, after I've gotten some sleep. Expect an analysis and vote (If I think Yitizi warrants one) in about 10 hours.

Contact one of the sub-forum moderators ( Alvron, metacognition and little wilson iirc). There's a number of players that can authorize a non-sanderson game, you should check the aftermath of ag3 for the list. Also, I assume a person can still post, vote and PM while mostly dead, or not?

Basically, he'd been in the same camp as Aman for all of D1, and his one post in the Night cycle was him distancing himself from that occurence, which could have been to allow Elim!Asterion to not seem too odd when he started voting on me and Aman. It's hardly my strongest piece of evidence, and even if Asterion is an elim, this might not have been premeditated. still, it stood out to me. You haven't made 8 posts this cycle, so I don't find it odd that you haven't responded to Aman yet. I'm not saying that everyone that just goes with the flow is an elim, but it is something an elim might do because it's easier to not slip up if you aren't continually trying to start lynches and coming up with opinions on people that most people in the thread aren't even considering. Regarding the comparison between Asterion and you, if you'd made as many posts as Asterion, and given as few opinions on non-target-of-the-moment people, I would be suspicious of you too, but for better or worse, that's not the case.

Did you read my post on him? If you have any questions or concerns, I can try to address them, but I can't really add much more than that to it.

Bing bing. Ooh, interesting. I had considered that, but decided I was being too paranoid. So if whoever gets lynched doesn't do that with at least a 4 vote lead(not counting Neutral votes), I'm probably going to get hammered. I'm not sure how I feel about that.

Alright, on to @asterion137. His first two posts of the first day stand out to me in a bad way: This feels to me like he's trying to generate suspicion of Straw and/or STINK without actually having to commit himself. The first post gives me that vibe more than the second one (without context, I'd say the second post was NAI). His arguments after that are for the most part good arguments about why I'm probably not an elim, and if he wasn't contradicting himself so badly in D2, I'd consider him village based on this. He only posts once during the night, despite it being 48 hours long. He comments that he doesn't like the Jondesu swing at all. In and of itself I'd say this is NAI, but it's also a good set-up for his swing on me and Aman this cycle. Anyway, he uses his first 4 posts this cycle to try to figure out how to crack the code BR put in the thread, despite it not being meant for him. This could both be a curious villager or an elim action though, so it's NAI. His decision to start voting one me seems really strange though. He seemed rather convinced that I was in fact village during D1, and I don't think I've said or done anything that would explain a sudden change of heart since then (If I had, asterion should be bringing that up). His reasoning is that he doesn't like how people voted to try and save me (and several others, I might add), but he's ignoring the fact that he justified his vote on Straw with pretty much the same reason: If I was an elim, and the elim team was willing to go to such extreme lengths to try and save me, Asterion should honestly be one of the main suspects. So overall, I'd been getting a net village vibe from him D1, and a definite elim vibe D2. There's also something else I've noticed: Unlike Striker, Asterion also hasn't reacted to Aman's request for reads on a number of people. From striker I'm getting the impression that he is (at least trying to) keep notes and have opinions on people, while Asterion is playing far more reactively. Though a reactive play-style is NAI, most people that play that way do appear to have opinions on people other than the ones currently being considered for the lynch, and I'm really not getting that impression from Asterion. This suggests to me that he might be an elim that's just going with the flow, which elims, unlike villagers, can afford to do as long as none of their people are being voted on So I'm going to vote on Asterion137 now. However, @StrikerEZ, I'd really like to see that big post you've been talking about, preferably before the start of the next day cycle if you can manage that. If you don't have time for everyone, just talking about a couple more people should allay some concerns and suspicions I have about you.

....Stop posting people! You're getting my post deleted! Anyway, I was going to talk about @StrikerEZ. He starts his first post with a claim of inexperience, but he then provides reasonable advice for the various allomantic roles. He also says the following about Jondesu: Which means he's apparently experienced enough to recognize an inherent bias against Jondesu. This makes me wonder whether he only included that first line to use as a shield in case any of his advice was perceived as bad, which is more an elim thing to do in my opinion. His next non-RP post in Day 1 contains a summary of the previous pages and his opinions on the various things that have occurred. This post gives me a slight village vibe overall, but I'd have liked it if he'd explained more why he thinks STINK ans Straw where bad lynch targets. His only post during the night is him stating that he didn't like the Jondesu lynch. he also makes his first reference to his big analysis post. Overall, this post is NAI, but I do find it odd that about 3 days later we still haven't seen much of this post he mentioned, epsecially since he seemed to think that he could have finished it before the end of D1 if he didn't need sleep. In D2 he responds to Aman's prompt to provide his thoughts on a number of players. His suspicion of Straw is reasonable, but he doesn't really bring any new insights to the table (NAI), He skips over stick and Yitzi, and says that he'll treat them alter in his ellusive big post. However, his write-up on me strike me as odd: Based on what he states here, I'd have expected him to classify me as Neutral or Neutral/slightly elim. This makes me wonder whether he was trying to mollify Aman by rating me more positive than I should be based on his explanation. And yes, I know I'm complaining about someone saying he thinks I'm probably not evil, but the rating just doesn't seem to match his explanation. Overall, I'm getting a slight Elim vibe from Striker. I'll get to asterion next, either in an edit to this post, or in a new post.

Yeah, true, but I think you know what i mean. I'd rather not assume a certain mechanical occurrence has happened because it makes the most sense, as I know of at least one case in which it almost ended badly for me.

I'm currently working on a post giving more detailed impressions on them. given that that means I'm going to have to compile the notes on them first, this might take a while. I'd prefer to hear the answer to both my questions from the people themselves, if you don't mind, Aman . I'm pretty sure the thief's ward protected Orlok, but it's always better to check, and the answer Brightness gives might be alignment indicative in some way (or not, but only one way to find out).

I've done a read-through of BR's posts. I haven't done as through a note-keeping as I've done for the flash, as in that case I'd be here all day, but overall I'm getting a village impression based on C1. AN important reason for this is that she was quite early with giving impressions and opinions, and elims would probably try to wait it out a bit as they are going to have to at least partly fake these impressions, and this is easier to do when there are more people around that are already giving opinions. I'd have preferred it if she'd provided justification fort he Jondesu vote when she made it, rather than after the day-cycle was already over, but I believe there was not inconsiderable time-pressure at that moment, so I can't really blame her for that. There was something odd this cycle though: This at first seemed to be a not-so-subtle insinuation that I am an elim, but she then later listed me as among her village reads. Could you explain this post a bit more, brightness? I assume you meant activity in comparison to Aman? By my count I've still got more than 30 posts. Also, people should pay attention to see if Joe's vote is still on the board after the cycle is over. If it is, that means that the thief's ward was the one that protected Orlok last cycle, which might be useful information.

I get Seonid's reasoning for voting on Aman. I think I bring up similar reasoning for a suspicion and vote at least once per game: "Person A defends person B for some reason, person B ends up being village, which apparently only person A seems to know. How did person A know that?" However, this seems like the kind of obvious mistake Aman wouldn't make. He could be playing an IKYK game for the better part of the C1 cycle with this, but personally, I don't see it. I'll try to do some more analysis tomorrow, but it's rather late here right now and I know that typing stuff while I'm tired does note end well. Vote tally: Striker(1): Aman The flash(2): Lopen, Stick Yitzi(1): PK STINK(1): Ecth Aman(2): Yitzi, Seonid Randuir(1): Arraenae P.S.: @Arraenae, I can see how it would be useful info if I die and flip elim for the Aman discussion. If I don't flip elim however, would you reckon it would still help solve the Aman situation?

On mobile right now, so can't look it up, but I remember Drake mentioning that his vote on Joe came after agreeing with Joe he'd do so to try to draw out the PO. Joe confirmed this iirc. I believe I was the one that made the argument Orlok pointed out not Aman, but again, please double-check this if you're not on mobile.

I was planning on doing a re-analysis of BR. Then I found out just how many posts she'd made. I'm still going to go through her posts, but not right now(will do so before the cycle ends unless some disaster happens). Instead I'm going to take a look at @The Flash, as Lopen's suspicion's have intrigued me. So, let's start with my conclusion: The flash is, in my opinion, somewhat suspicious, but at the moment not quite suspicious enough to justify a vote unless I can't find anyone that is more suspicious. There's a number of things that stood out to me. I've already mentioned that I fount his insistence on voting C1 while at the same time claiming he was thoroughly confused odd. His insistence on keeping all his suspicions under wraps until D1 (and therefore the lynch vote) was over also stood out to me, especially since his eventual suspicion post seemed to be composed almost entirely of gut-reads (at least, he referred to specific posts and acts that made him suspicious only a handful of times). His evaluation of myself also seemed decidedly Neutral, where during D1 he seemed to be sure enough about his vote on me to stand up against Aman(which isn't a wrong thing to do in and of itself, Aman has been both wrong and evil in the past, and will be so in the future, but it seems odd when compared to his later read on me). Two One specific posts I want to mention: I don't see how sharing your suspicions makes something more complicated. If anything, shouldn't showing your opinions on what is going on help clarify what is going on? At this point, the flash ninja'd me, and more or less clarified the second point I felt was odd. So, Flash, could you maybe shed some more light about your reasoning for the post I quoted?

@Arraenae, I haven't played a game with Neutrals before. @Seonid, I can see why you disliked the Jondesu lynch, but my point wasn't about that lynch in particular. To elaborate a bit further: I don't think it's a good idea to lynch a player that is very likely to generate information later on for no other reason than to gain information now. If you'd stated some form of suspicion of Yitzi, I would have been fine with it, but lynching him purely for information C1 seems like a waste to me. Also, why in Ruin's name did the elims attack Orlok? I guess I can see it happening if they'd made some kind of deal with the thief's child (entrance into the love triangle for a favor later), but that's about it.

Allright, I hope the situation will improve again, and I understand if this means you won't be able to participate as much as you usually do. On a related note, I have always wondered about the relevant piece of forum etiquette: Is up-voting a bad news post like that to show support a thing you can do? I always felt that 'liking' a piece of bad news is odd but I'm just not sure.

@Straw, if you've got time and don't need to do more important stuff, like analysis, is there any chance you could make a graph comparing the length of D1 of this game with the total length of all MR's and QF's? @Dalinar Kholin, unfortunately, lurking and inactive look very similar from our perspective. I can understand it if you need some time to process that monster of a D1 thread, however.

Ah, that explains a lot. From Joe's reaction in the dead-doc I'd assumed you where also experienced with playing mafia on other forums, which is why that comment stuck out to me. To get some more info about this I'd also asked you just how much experience you'd had with mafia back during the day-cycle.

It was from that post, but not quite the part you're referencing here (I think): The bolded was what made me feel like you where trying to play the newbie card. It is possible you'd intended this differently, but my interpretation seems to be the most obvious to me (...obviously).

Yeah, thar might be it. I believe you got lynched in lg30 in C4, or something though you got better. I still don't remember too much in-depth analysis from you in earlier games, though I might be misremembering.

I'll make a little post with my various impressions of different players. I won't go too in-depth on any specific people now, though I will do so when/if I get around to voting next cycle. First, the Neutrals. I believe the following people have claimed Neutral: Orlok, STINK, Joe and Wilson. I'm fairly certain that Orlok and Joe are speaking the truth, so I'm going to leave them out of any analysis for now. I'm not quite as certain about Wilson, but I don't have any reasons to believe she's not speaking the truth at the moment, so while I'll be keeping an eye on her, I'm not planning on putting her in the spotlight. As far as I'm concerned, STINK could still be any alignment. Unlike the others I think an alignment claim by STINK is thoroughly NAI. Jay (The Flash) He's been hopping around a lot with his votes, while simultaneously claiming that he doesn't know what is going on (why would you do that?). Some of his comments (such as his question about who to vote for after retracting from STINK) make me wonder whether he's trying to appear to still be rather new and inexperienced (he's finished an LG and an MR, and is currently playing a QF, so I think he's past the wide-eyed new-player stage). Slight elim read. Name Name (Straw) I don't think an elim would have been as quick to reveal Joe's PM. He's also been far more active than I've usually seen him be. id' like to hear what exactly felt of about my psots if he gets time for it, but overall I'm getting a small village vibe from him. Siv (Cloudjumper) -Cloudjumper hasn't posted much yet, though the one post he has made seems to make reasonable arguments. I'd prefer to hear why exactly he got a village vibe, but I doubt an elim would be trying to get on my 'nice people'-list at that point, so I'm not reading too much into it. He's also forgetting that we did in fact play one game together (QF23), but he was mostly inactive, and got lynched C2. Very slight village read Luigi (Shqueeves) Only made two comments, both NAI, neither of which where particularly related to the game. I'd like to hear more from him. No read. Edmond Dantès (asterion137) Two of his posts seem like attempts to generate suspicion without having to really commit to making his own reads (his comment about straws PM avalanche appearing odd to someone more suspicious than him, and his comment that the last-minute vote-swing led to a lack of logic used). On the other hand, he did put in his two cents in defense of me, though that could have been a ploy to be able to say ' I told you so' in case I got lynched. No read, but based on getting opposing impressions from his posts, rather than not getting anything, like with Shqueeves. Carcer (Paranoid King) Has posted only twice, once asking the flash to be more active, and once suggesting an inactive is lynched instead of the people that where up fro the lynch at that point. He's also made a couple of big group PM's for seemingly no other reason that that he could. At least his opening text in these PM's seemed to indicate that he was quite aware of the fact that they where pretty random PM's. The suggestion that we lynch an inactive could have been a villager trying to suggest a D1 lynch that wouldn't hurt the village much, but it could also have been an elim ploy to deprive the village of information that the lynch of a more active player would give. Very slight elim read. Dariend Castel (StrikerEZ) He's made a couple of posts, but none of them really say anything. I don't like how he kept mentioning being suspicious of me without providing anything to really back it up. No read, but if he keeps continually claiming that things feel off about people while not providing more reasoning, this read will probably slip in the elim direction. Roger Elariel (Elenion) Hasn't posted as much yet, but he's playing a bunch of games simultaneously, so it's not that odd. His vote for Straw is NAI, and there isn't much else. I'm kinda interested how STINK managed to read village rather than Neutral in his PM's, but I'm not sure how much I should look into that line. No read. Alonine (BrightnessRadiant) I'm going to have to do a more through read of BR's posts before I make a final verdict, but I am getting a bit of a village vibe from her. Sure, she voted on me, but she also supported that vote with decent reasoning (even if I don't agree with it), and was willing to change her mind. Actually, after taking another look, I think she might be another Neutral, which would also explain a couple of things (I believe she started the vote against me, with Orlok and Joe close behind, which might indicate she's another Neutral). I'm not certain though. Alrin (Arinian) I'm getting a definite village vibe from arin based on his posts this night. I haven't seen him do too much analysis before (though I think he died early in most games I've been in with him, which might be the cause of that), so seeing him do that now is always good. I don't think an elim would decide to break an established behaviour pattern. Aimes (Araris Valerian) He voted on Straw apparently based solely on Straw's PM proliferation. This make more sense once he explains that this is a tactic he's seen an elim do before. Despite wanting to lynch Straw, he's still willing to be ciritcal of the other votes on him. Though this could be an elim setting up for taking advantage of the fallout of a village lynch, I don't think most elims would be critical of those joining his vote at that early stage, as the vote could have still gone everywhere, especially if he convinced those two to vote elsewhere. Slight village read. Darius Castel (Ecthelion III) Hasn't posted anything yet, as apparently he got swamped by a massive thread. He also specifically indicates he wants to read everything before committing to a vote, which might be a more town thing to do, but it also seems to be common sense so it's NAI. No read. Siena Mattel (Seonid) Hasn't posted too much C1 either. One thing of note is his decision to support the Yitzi lynch. His provided reasoning is apparently that he's doing it purely because he thinks it would provide a decent amount of information(no other reasons provided), but imho Yitzi is a good enough player that killing him only for the information is a pretty bad play unless it guarantees at least 1 elim to be revealed. Seonid did play QF23, so, I think he ought to know this as well. Slight elim read. Lukas Fehrweight (Drake Marshall) Apart from an initial post in which he talked about the merits and risks of various neutral roles claiming, Drake's been mostly posting RP. He has apparently been part of a ploy with Joe to try to draw out the PO. Don't really have a read on him yet, though I'd like him to share his own reads on various players with the thread(though I might have wanted to read that initial post a bit better). Altea Meza (Crimsn-Wolf) I'm a bit suspicious of crimsn as it appeared she was trying to play a 'newbie card' in her first post (though it's true this is her second game on these forums, Joe mentioned in the MR22 dead-doc that she is a bit of a maffia-veteran). She didn't react to me calling her out on that before (though she might have missed that in the massive stack of pages that followed after that). A quick skim of the rest of her posts doesn't really show anything that suggests she's either village or elim, but like BR, I need to take the time to do a proper read-through of her posts. Slight elim read for now. Dandi (_Stick_) Stick seems to be doing his (wait, wasn't stick a her? can't remember, sorry Stick) homework (ie: reading up on LG30 to see how elim!rand operates, for example), which is a more village thing to do in my opinion. I also think an elim would have known whether there was an alignment-scanner in this game or not, though he could have made that mistake on purpose to seem village. Right now, I've got a village read here. Kliff (TheMightyLopen) I'm not committing to reads on Lopen. The only way I can read him is if I've got a role-scanner role and I'm absolutely certain that there is no way for him to block that scan. And even then I'll be second-guessing myself. Garshin (Yitzi2) I'm actually somewhat surprised that he hadn't reached the same conclusion about Joe that I did, as I've seen him apply game theory and looking for what the optimal play from a pure logic standpoint is before. Then again, I might have mentioned to him to be careful with that, as people tend to not act logically. Maybe I should have taken my own advice here. If Straw proves to be evil it might be a good idea to look at Yitzi again based on his subtle defense of Straw, but right now his posts give me a village vibe (though some of it feels slightly out-of-character for him). I do need to do another re-read of his posts but one thing that struck me as village is that an elim would probably have held his vote on me for a bit longer to see if anyone else would join before retracting if it looked like it wouldn't go anywhere. Rorik (Dalinar Kholin) Has only posted once. I'd prefer to hear more from him. No read. Mykal (Amanuensis) Almost certainly village. However I look at it, I can'f figure out how the elims would stand to profit more from Elim!Aman's alignment getting attached to my own, than from just getting me lynched. I'm pretty sure he is entirely to blame for the monstrous proportions the D1 thread has grown to, however (though whether that ends op aiding the elims or village is anyone's guess at this point). Phil (STINK) Absolutely no rusting clue about Stink's alignment. I don't think it's Chaotic Good, but it could be Chaotic Neutral or a subtle Chaotic Evil. Julie (Arraenae) Her initial comment about smokers saving their charges until later doesn't sit entirely right with me. it makes sens for stopping last-minute vote manipulation, but if you want to stop the elims from building an accurate portrait of who do and do not have powers then the smokers should probably be smoking early, as the elims will try to build up an information advantage if they have a seeker early. She mentions that they should wait till the end game when there are more role-claims, but that kinda removes the point. her vote on straw also seems to be mostly justified by counter-wagoning. I don't think there has been a point in this game where anyone accrued enough votes that the only way to lynch someone else was to join a counter-wagon, so this makes me suspicious as well. Elim-read, but like with the others that have posted a lot, I'm going to need to do a careful re-evaluation before voting on her. Suterna (Elbereth) Elbereth has only 1 substantial post. She correctly called me out on making the assumption that there was only 1 tin-eye, but then makes an assumption herself that there would be multiple tin-eyes neatly split among the player-group. I think an elim planning on building this up as arguments for a lynch later would probably make sure not to commit the same mistake. The rest of this post contains some good advice, but like with my own similar post, it's mostly NAI. I've got a slight village read on her.

Do be careful with putting too many requests on the same person, as it becomes harder to determine elim involvement if they die, if there's 10 people requesting no defense. 2-3 is probably fine. Also, @The Flash, please mention BR so that there is no reason she could have missed your request (this goes for all such requests).