DeTess

I did that last day-turn, yes. I can't prove that unless the new Ambtion decides to claim, though. Edit: also, @Hemalurgic Headshot, something that came up in the Roshar doc: could we ask you to go and make an aspect on the remaining worlds? That should slow Ruin down a bit. (right up until he kills you, but we'll honor your sacrifice)

Right, I misremembered. It was @Devotary of Spontaneity that was spotted on Taldain, not you. Apologies for the mix-up. Is there some way you can prove being on Silverlight N1? I'm looking for ways to hard-clear a bunch of people from being Ruin, if at all possible.

How do you know this, Sart? Straw claimed to have created a Mistborn, if Fifth's theory about Dominion is right he tried to make me a Dakhor Monk last cycle, and will continue to do so to other people. And I don't know why Odium Isn't killing, but he can both kill and Scan, and he could just be preparing for a long shard-killing rampage. Once again, I disagree somewhat. Hoid's group can have as many as 11 charges of Odium because of his starting investiture. If Hoid started laundering all that invesiture into killing power with the rest of his faction, and could figure out who the shards are, he could make a serious dent in either the shards or non-shard players. Khrissala does have something of a problem here though, but only if noone in her faction has a shard. If one of them does, it's as simple as investing it in a world, and seeing how long it'll take the rest to do something about it. Ambition doesn't resurrect. It gives someone a role they can use while being dead. Endowment will probably only continue returning people as long as she remains village, which will probably not last that long. I can understand your viewpoint, I'm just not sure if its right. Depending on the win-cons of Odium and Ruin, we could be about to start seeing a lot more kills. I think we don't know enough yet to call the game broken. Edit: Also, seems like Ruin has started killing planets, putting us on a clock for stopping him, as somehow I don't think any faction but Ruin wins if all planets go up. This is probably the moment we should be trying to find him. If we remove all claimed shards from the list, that leaves the following people as suspects: Young Bard - Jeral Arinian - Eilen Eternum - Habrian Fifth Scholar - Darrel Jondesu - Quintus Droughtbringer - Ralar Devotary of Sponteneity - Reed livinglegend - Unnamed Character 3 A Joe in the Bush - Locke Tekiel MonsterMetroid - Willie Magestar - Moro Megasif - Mega Sart - Sam Taswell _Stick_ - Stick shanerockes - Philepe De Pedro Von Leiderhuch Johnson III Drake Marshall - Everen Elbereth - Elaria That doesn't narrow it down in particular, but there's more we can do. I'd like everyone to claim where they where this night and N1. Also mention the names of people that can confirm where you where. I was on silverlight N1, and freed a Shard there, while I traveled to Roshar last cycle. I was the only one there though, so can't prove that. Edit2: Or maybe I can prove that, because all the refugees arrived in my Doc, instead of in a new one. Edit3: My reason for thinking that Ruin has been taken over by his win-con is in part inspired by the write-up, and in part by the fact that any pro-village utility blowing up silverlight might have had before is gone now that most shards are gone. Also, @Fifth Scholar and @Sart, I'd like to hear your where-abouts in particular. I presented the theory before that Ruin hadn't blown up a planet N2 because he had a witness, and if I remember correctly you two where the only two on Taldain last cycle.

I wonder if this could work. My first instinct is that you can't use actions when you get lynched, but you can activate extra lives, sooo.... @Seonid, where does the lynch come in the order of actions? Could straw have invested someone before dying? Also, there are two people currently in the cognitive realm, and two shards capable of affecting the dead. I'd personally like to see steeldancer returned this cycle because his death puzzles me and he might be able to tell us why. I don't think steeldancer or straw held any investiture, so shade-ifying them would probably be pointless.

I'd say there are three reasons for not doing so, at least one of which is good. First, there's the risk of me getting taken by the shardic win-con if I use the shards power too much. It would be awkward If I use its power now, pass it on using my other action, and then get told I now have ambition's win-con. Second of all, I've decided to world-hop today. I'm not going to join the rush on Honor tonight, so I might as well leave silverlight altogether. As I've got only one action left, it should be obvious what I'd better use it for. This brings me to my third point: Dominion's redirect is a night action only, so passing the Shard on should happen during the day. That's also something I recommend for anyone else considering to pass on a Shard: do it during the day, so Dominion doesn't get a chance to redirect it. If I could be on till the very end of the cycle to see how things turn out, I might do things in a slightly different order, but this'll be my last post for this cycle, and I might check in once more in an hour or so, but that's it.

Are you assuming that autonomy's win-con is anti-village? The only way I'm seeing it be a sure-fire victory to lynch HH is if you're working with that assumption, and if you are, I'd like to know what you think the win-cons is. Why? I can understand wanting to go for an alternative lynch to straw or HH, but why pick LivingLegend? edit: @_Stick_, could you sumamrize your suspicions of MM for me? edit2: also, for those trying to predict the total votes when everything's said and done, I won't be using my anonymous vote today. Too risky if I'm passing ym shard on.

It seems readonable, but it ignores the possibillity that Odium does not have the win-con we think he does (shatter shards). As I don't think we know who holds odium, or have much in the way of leads, I'm not sure how useful the elim!Odium suspicion is. Edit: though if we do figure out who odium is later, it's useful info. Apologies if I sounded dismisdive of your work here. That was unintentional. @Straw, why'd you pick Joe to protect last night?

If I was either of them, I'd have converted one person N0, and kept the other conversion for later. If you don't convert at all you run the risk of losing the game to a single lucky lynch or kill. Converting N0 also means that there's less of a chance of the person suddenly showing a change in behavior. I mentioned before that I can understand wanting to try for a Shard first, but I don't think delaying getting a first co-conspirator for more than a cycle is worth the risk.

He gained those votes pretty quickly though. If he hadn't claimed, more might have piled up after that. It was also already in the 2nd day of the cycle, which in a normal length cycle meant it was closer to the end. I guess I do see the point you're trying to make, though. I'd like to think of myself as a bit more mysterious than that, but fair enough . drought, Straw. The Drought lynch isn't really going anywhere yet, and Drought hasn't responded yet either. I suppose between Straw and HH, Straw is the one more likely to be evil at the moment.

When he revealed, he had 4 votes on him, with HH and drought having about 2, if I didn't miscount, so I'd say he was very much in danger. I agree that he definitely could be Hoid or Khriss from an action-economy standpoint, but that doesn't really prove anything. What did you mean by saying that he was the one we know the least about though?

That's probably true. I don't suppose anyone visited Nalthis that day? Also, both faction conversions have to target someone on the same world, so it's not very likely that HH is either Khriss or Hoid, because if they are, they probably wouldn't have had a good chance for any conversions yet, and I don't think making aspects would be prioritized over converting.

Well, I suppose that makes a decent amount of sense, given how we couldn't figure out how Autonomy could have cleared you in another way. The big question then becomes whether this information clears you or not. You took Autonomy on N0, but that isn't really proof one way or another, as a lot of people suggested that the elims might take from a shard on the first night instead of converting, and I can see the wisdom in doing both converting or syphoning. You could even be the N0 convert of one of the factions, as conversions happen before shards get taken. So, though the odds don't favor it, there's no reason here for you to not be an elim. Now, let's look at your actions. Assuming you're not Hoid (who has a charge of autonomy's investiture), only the N1 action is unaccounted for. We know that you used the remainder to travel, place aspects and block Pyro (that was you, right?). Placing aspects would be in line with either elim faction's goal. Blocking Pyro could also fall into that category if you suspected he was part of the other faction, so still NAI. The one unaccounted for action even leaves open the possibility of you being Hoid or Khriss, as it gives you a window for a conversion. Lastly, there's the Shard you're holding to consider. I wouldn't rate Autonomy's investiture as particularly important in the early game for either faction, but the shard itself is very useful to them. It allows for monitoring of all the world-docs, and either extra votes or role-blocks. That's not to say that those aren't useful to villagers, I consider the utility of this Shard to be about equal for Elims and villagers. So yeah, TL;DR this doesn't really prove anything. HH, would you tell us your N1 action? And can you tell me whether you where intentionally going for a shardic win-con or not?

*Shrug*. Yeah, it's Ambition. I considered for a while whether it'd be better to keep that a secret or not, but the applied analysis narrowed it down to two good possibilities, and I think it's probably better to confirm that I'm not Ruin. Also, I believe some people wondered why I went for more investiture. The reason for that was that with the planets currently available, any investiture I could get could be used for a lot of different things (extra lives, roleblocks, protects, etc.), and I'd hoped the one I picked would be of little interest to other people. I guessed wrong though (I'd gone for devotion). Edit: when I said devotion, I meant endowment.

As Seonid said, my syphon shouldn't actually have been redirected. ( @Devotary of Spontaneity, does that explain enough of what happened?) Also, knowing that aspects of autonomy don't grant investiture means that autonomy couldn't have scanned HH at all, as they had no way to get their own investiture. What I meant is that you seemed to be focusing your attention mostly on the obvious active targets, and not really looking at anyone else. Trying to lead a lynch is definitely proactive play, but if your attention seems to be only on the 6 or so most active players it isn't really. A post like this one is the reason I wanted a response btw, as it seems to me to be a lot more proactive than earlier posts(voting on a less obvious target in particular stands out, and is an indicator of analysis going further back than the thread of the current turn, which is good).

Oh, you're right, I'd forgotten about the extension. My reason for voting on Drought was that his posts in the last cycle where incredibly low-content. In about a dozen posts, there where only two in which he really seemed to be providing views of the game. All the others where either questions for the GM's, or one-liners in response to things people said. He never really commented on the Pyro and straw lynch possibilities, and just generally seemed to be intentionally flying under the radar.

This'll be my final post for this cycle. Since no one else provided one, have a vote tally. Vote tally HH(7): Elbereth, Stick, Fifth, Jondesu, Straw, Arinian, Eternum Straw(2): Pyro, Magestar, stick, HH Drought(2): Randuir, Megasif Arinian(1): HH I considered adding my vote to HH as well. In fact, until I spotted that discrepancy with Droughtbringer I'd been planning on voting on him. However, my main reason was that there'd been so much discussion around him that knowing his alignment would just be rather advantageous. That wasn't a particular good reason then, and it still isn't now, so I'll keep my vote on Drought.

Okay, so with w actions per cycle (so day and night combined), autonomy could have scanned HH's action N1. I can't think if any result that would be indicative of HH being village though. Did I miss a possibillity?

No, they get one per turn, turn meaning day or night turn if I'm not mistaken (right, @Seonid?). That means Shards get 3, and normal people 2 per cycle.

You're right. I was under the mistaken impression that non-invested got 1 action per cycle, not per half of a cycle. So autonomy would have an action left to roleblock Pyro. Which is a shame, because if this hadn't been the case, I'd just found Hoid.

There's one thing I overlooked, and that is that Autonomy's aspects allow everyone on the aspected world(including autonomy, as this happens at the start of a cycle) to get a bit of autonomy's investiture every cycle. However, we've got autonomy's action all accounted for, namely N0: take autonomy, C1 worldhop and place aspect, C2: worldhop and place aspect. But that does mean that pyro wasn't roleblocked by autonomy last night, as autonomy had already used the two actions... I'm going to quickly have to think through some implications.

And how did autonomy do that? Autonomy didn't get any investiture N0, as they got a Shard instead. Since then, they've been hopping around, making aspects, which mean the haven't gotten investiture since then either. Autonomy itself only gives aspect creation, vote manipulation and roleblocking as powers.

I doubt you'd risk a team member for a setup like this, so if Mage confirms this, I suppose there's no reason not to believe your claim. However, I don't see how this would prove you're village(which, I assume, is the goal of this reveal). Both Hoid and Khriss can take shards, as can their converts.

This is a very good theory, and if Dominion wasn't doing this before, he certainly will be now. I'm also angry at myself for not spotting this. I like to think I'm rather well informed where the game mechanics are considered, but I never even considered this option. There's not much use denying it now. I do indeed hold a shard. I also still have my original win-con, and there's a couple of people I trust enough to start passing this thing around. I was somewhat conflicted about doing that, as shardic win-cons sound fun (but going for one means I'm going against my village win-con, not that hat seems to be stopping anyone else), but it's probably pretty unachievable if people already know I hold one. I won't reveal which I hold, just that it isn't Cultivation. That having been said, let's get back to analysis and lynching people. Elbereth Obligatory mention of Elbereth being more aggressive than usual, despite the last game I played with her being long enough ago that I do not have a proper frame of reference. Elbereth has been very active has been a major driver of discussion by asking questions to get to the bottom of people's motivations. I haven't seen anything spring out to me in a negative sense. She's also a good enough player that I probably need to be wary of her despite this. I'm definitely leaning village on her for now though. I'm not certain who to vote on. I'm still suspicious of Straw, though not as much as I was before. My read on HH hasn't really shifted, and stills its at 'Maybe not village, but probably not elim?' I'd have liked to see a response from @Drake Marshall on my reads on him, though I admit I didn't give him much in particular to work with. I just want to see a response because it might help with figuring him out. It's too late in the cycle for a poke-vote on him though, and that would just be delaying placing an actual vote anyway. The last one on my 'maybe an elim' list is Drought, though my initial suspicion of him was incredibly tenuous. I'd like to point out that over the last cycle, drought hasn't actually posted much real content. The only thing that really qualifies is a discussion with Elbereth, and that's about 2 posts in 13 total. He didn't comment at all on the discussion around Straw and Pyro despite being on at the time. Droughtbringer seems to be intentionally flying under the radar right now, which I find suspicious. Also, @Young Bard, @Arinian, @Eternum, @Straw, @Jondesu, @A Joe in the Bush, @Megasif and @Sart, none of you have posted yet.

Fairly certain a shard in containment can't be a lightweaver . But thanks for mentioning that, I'd forgotten that could have been a possibility.

I think that's something for Autonomy to decide at the moment. If she seems to be acting counter to village interests, that will change, of course.