Magestar

Rust and Ruin.  I swear if I ever trust Pyro ever again I might as well just go ahead and lynch myself.  Good grief.

Well whoever tried to kill me again certainly hasn't been paying attention.  Reginald doesn't go down easily.  He's Not To Be Trifled With.    

And PMs are gone as well.  I can’t say I mind, really.  PMs are too much trouble and I feel I’m too easily convinced by PM conversations.  I’d rather everything just be in the thread, in most cases.  Now I can just go back to not trusting any of you.   

I was interested to see who would die, given that, as far as I can tell, the only two people who even could be killed last night were Pyro and Karnage.    I am curious though.  The Kandra must have killed Pyro, since the Elims clearly targeted me, and I believe I know who targeted Mist.  That leaves this whole situation in a rather interesting place...

Oh well.  I'm too tired to post any analysis at the moment, but I'll do both that and some RP before the end of the cycle.

Now if the Shard can just avoid eating this post like it did the last three, I can be done for the night.  Here's hoping lol

Reginald cursed himself.  He'd been too obvious.  Rust and Ruin, what had he been thinking!  He should never have revealed his Allomantic abilities.  Someone had managed to tamper with his gold stores somehow.  His Augury had failed.

Reginald groaned in pain, clutching his side.  He'd retreated to his room, his body temporarily crippled by the impure gold.  His stored strength, what little remained, could do nothing to solve that problem.  He'd have to wait it out.  To make matters worse, the traitors were on to him now.  It was only a matter of time before they came for him again.  He wasn't sure he'd be able to fight off another attack.  But perhaps...  Reginald stood shakily, and dragged himself over to the other side of the room, where a large wardrobe had been shoved against the doorway.  He couldn't be too careful, and he didn't want the traitors having too easy a time getting to him.

Reginald fell to his knees, then swung the doors of the wardrobe open.  He frantically began throwing out it's contents; old sweaters, random articles of clothing from the compound's previous tenants.  He was sure he had left it in here...  Reginald tapped strength, and broke a hole in the bottom of the wardrobe.

He found it.  Reginald lifted with shaky hands a small vial of gold.  He'd had extra.  With this, he could see who'd tampered with his previous vial. 

If this vial hadn't been tampered with, of course.

Reginald hesitated.  If it had, attempting to burn it would nearly kill him.  But he had no choice.  As he was now, he was nearly useless.  The traitors would kill him; and if they didn't, the others would.  This was his last chance.

Reginald drank the vial.

18 minutes ago, Mist said:

@Magestar, did you find anything using Augur?

I agree. This isn't good. Do we want to lynch Lahilt next cycle? Someone else?

This thread is very quiet. 

Yeah I found out that the Elims had a Steel trap.    My bad, frankly.  I shouldn't have mentioned my ability.

I guess I'm just gonna do it again.  We can lynch whoever it was next cycle.

Yeah.  I feel like it won't make a real difference if we lynch Emi or Lahilt this cycle.  Worst case scenario we have to lynch Lahilt next day cycle instead of having the coinshot kill them in the night cycle.  I'm gonna leave my vote on Emi.

2 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I think the reasoning for Lahilt is because there's a rumor that they have a vest, and would be tricky to coinshot.

Yeah that's the reason I'm not putting up too much of a fight about it.  There's the chance we have trouble killing Elim!Lahilt.  It's a fair reason.

It's just also possible we kill a villager.  I figured I'd at least make mention of that fact.

edit:  Late edit, any chance of a vote count?  @StrikerEZ

Lol.  Thanks Pyro.

Ok so here's my defense of Lahilt, such as it is.  A roleclaim from them might help their case, along with some explanation of the actions they've taken.  But this seems pretty solid to me.

1.  They removed their vote from Exp, something an Elim would have almost no reason to do.  At best, it makes them look good when Exp flips village.  But they also said that Ventyl asked them to do it in a PM.  This would be very odd for an Elim.  Additionally, their focus on Ventyl asking them to do it would make it a little obvious if that were the case.  Also defended Drake, a known villager.  Post:

2.  They pushed the lynch on Ventyl a little hard, even for busing.  With the amount of inactivity or partial inactivity in the Elim team, I seriously doubt busing would be a strategy they would consider.  Especially considering the composition of the Elim team.  Ventyl, (Lahilt/Emi), and Hatz are all newer players, and I don't see Kynedath or Xino as bussing types.  The only odd thing is that Lahilt mentions this, which could have been an attempt to shield busing?  But the Elims weren't in enough trouble to worry about busing yet, IMO.  Posts:

That's just too much pressure on Ventyl for an Elim bus or distancing tactic, IMO.

3.  Villagey posts.  These two posts read village to me.  

There's also their other post about me getting in touch with the coinshot via Pyro.  It just seems like a bunch of actions which really don't make any sense for an Elim to take.  Giving reasons Ash might be clear?  Giving the village suggestions on what to do?  Not something a newbie Elim would do on their own, IMO.  

And that's basically all I've got.  Y'all can make your own decisions.  It's not a huge deal, but I'd rather lynch someone I'm suspicious of than someone I'm not, in general.  It'd be cool to have more villagers alive at the end of the game.  But it's all just icing.  I'm pretty confident we've got the game in the bag at this point.  If y'all have reasonable suspicions of Lahilt I'll gladly discuss them.

4 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Yup, those are the three TJ.

I could support either Emi or Lahilt for today's lynch, but I'm open to arguments as to which one of you two to lynch. @Lahilt. @Karnage is probably pseudo-clear as the most likely Kandra, and if he happens to be an Elim!Kandra then the real Elims may just take care of him for us.

Making a tie between the two could prove interesting, but that's probably an unnecessary risk. But mislynching here would... not be good.

 

I will say this: I'm slightly nervous of this all being an Elim!Mage masterstroke.

It's probably my conspiracy-theory me talking, but think about it. We now can't lynch Mage this turn because we need his information. Next turn, he could "reveal" his attacker, essentially sentencing them to death by Coinshot or the next lynch, forcing the Village to possibly hit two villagers in a row.

... you know, that made a lot more sense in my head than when I type it. I think we should still follow Mage's target, but we should do it with the Coinshot instead of with our next lynch. We don't have any more leads, and I think I trust Mage, but we can't afford to wait on two lynches.

Geez.  I wish I was as awesome at this as you guys are making me out to be.    

The problem with using the Ventyl/Emi interactions as reasoning for whether to lynch Emi or to lynch Lahilt is that Ventyl could easily have chosen Emi, who has been active enough in other parts of the Shard that they could pretty easily also be active in the Elim doc, in order to fake a roleblock and auto-clear himself.  So really, that interaction is pretty NAI.  I personally don't really care whether we lynch Emi or Lahilt; the coinshot can take the other one this night cycle if my Auguring doesn't pan out.  Personally, I'm more suspicious of Emi, but it's not a huge deal.

I also think that the Kandra isn't a huge issue.  The biggest problem they present is that they have a kill, and I'm pretty sure we have enough Villagers left that we can make it through losing one of them without too much trouble.  More important is finding the last Elim or two, because if we get rid of them, we win the game.  Best case scenario, there's one left and we kill them this cycle.  I don't think that's all that unlikely, frankly.  I just don't think we'll accomplish that by killing Lahilt.

I'll post a defense of Lahilt before the end of the cycle, just because.

8 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Ooooh. That is clever, and a really nice Twinborn combo. I was wondering when the Brute would show itself once the two Lurchers went down.

So, did your spike or your Brute ability kill Kidpen? Or was it something else?

I'm assuming our Contribution Crusade of a Coinshot killed TKG, but that's besides the point.

Yeah, I really think the Twinborn Combo is more responsible for the cleverness than I am.  It's almost the natural thing to do with those two powers.  I'm actually a little tiny bit disappointed it took the Elims this long to try and kill me.    

Neither, actually.  I'm in touch with Pyro who's in touch with the Coinshot.  Like Lahilt suggested, actually.  I suggested the Kidpen kill, then I used my spike on TGK, since an inactive's role would be better off in our hands.  I do admit to being rather pleased that Kidpen flipped Elim.  There was no real info on TGK, so I don't mind that they flipped village.

6 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

I'm betting on Kandra here.

You still think I'm the Kandra?    I can't for the life of me guess why.  Didn't we already confirm the Kandra doesn't have an extra life since Araris was killed?  

If Kidpen didn't put in the kill order, I can clear myself next cycle.  

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

So worst case scenario, it's 5-1-2. Going by the same assumption as last cycle, that leaves Emi, Lahilt, Mist, and Karnage. This lynch gave us enough information to soft-clear Mist. She broke the tie to vote for Hats in D1. Don't really think there's a necessity to bus a teammate in the very first cycle. She voted for Kynedath in D2. Vote for 2 teammates in the first 2 cycles of the game? Very dangerous elim play. So I'd like to soft clear them for now. That leaves Emi, Lahilt and Karnage as the possible elims and kandra. 

Of those three, I'd put my bets on Emi.  Karnage is kind of on iffy ground, but Ventyl voted on them in self preservation, and vice versa, I believe.  Lahilt also went after Ventyl.  It could have been bussing, but I doubt it at this point.

If it's not one of those three, then I'll have to take another look at everyone.  I, at least, should be pretty much hard-cleared at this point, but who knows.    

That's a... really interesting distribution.  I feel kinda bad, since quite a few Elims were basically inactive.  Unless they were faking it, which, I suppose, is always a possibility.  But that seems unlikely, considering how much they could have done lynch shenanigans.

Reginald propped himself up against the wall, tense, grinning, his muscles still swollen with the strength he'd been tapping.  It had worked!  It had finally worked.  He'd been trying for the past week to subtly seem enough of a threat that the Traitors might try and kill him, and finally, with their Leecher dead, he had cast aside subtlety.  And it had worked!  They had attempted to kill him.

And he'd survived.

Reginald stood slowly, wincing at the pain in his side.  The adrenaline was quickly wearing off, and Villin had given him quite a beating.  He must have gotten in some lucky hits.  Feruchemical Pewter was nothing like Allomantic Pewter: it only granted physical strength, not ungodly endurance or resistance to pain, so Reginald would feel every bit of this fight.  He'd live, though.  His strength had seen to that.

Now it was time for the real show, however.  Villin may have attacked him, but that was not the only possibility.  There were other possibilities... and Reginald could see them.  He pulled a vial of metal flakes from his pocket.  They glistened in the dim light of the hallway as he poured them down his throat.

So yep, that's basically it.  I'd been trying to subtly get the Elims to kill me for the past couple cycles.  I was a bit worried about being roleblocked, being my paranoid self, so I tried not to be obvious about wanting to get attacked. But when Ventyl died as the third Leecher in the game, I figured the probability of me getting roleblocked at this point was ridiculously low.  So I talked about the spike I bought last night, to try and get the Elims to kill me.  And it worked! 

For some clarification, I'm an Augur/Brute Twinborn.  Sorry to the people I lied to.  I was just a bit paranoid of the Elims finding out the Brute bit.

Anyway, I should be able to find out who targeted me last cycle.  With any luck, it wasn't Kidpen, and we'll have one of - if not the last of - the remaining elims.  So... yay?    

Ahahaha.  It worked!

And I was right about Kidpen too!  Sweet.  I'll be back on in a moment with some RP and possibly some explanation.   

4 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh. Oops. For some reason I keep getting you and TJ confused in my brain. I think because you read almost identical.

To be fair, many of our posts parallel in a number of ways.  The same thing happened with Araris and I earlier.  I'm not sure what to make of it.

3 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I'm gonna going to believe Ash, Pyro and Mage are villagers till the point where I have to stop believing. If I don't believe them now, yeah well I can't trust anyone else. That means 3 possible elims and a kandra from the pool of TGK, Kidpen, Emi, Karnage, Lahilt and Mist. If we soft-clear Emi and Karnage for elims, we're left with TGK, Kidpen, Lahilt and Mist. 3 out of the 4 are possible elims. For kandra (let's just say I have sufficient evidence to believe they were active enough to send out kill action during N4), we can removed Mist (because they would lose Thug ability) and TGK (inactive). Karnage was inactive during N4 as well. That leaves us with Kidpen, Emi and Lahilt (with an outside chance of Karnage being inactive in-thread while submitting a kill). We can work with this. I hope I don't get killed for this analysis. I really hope I'm right because if one of my trusted 3 turns out to be elim/kandra, all this is useless. 

It's somewhat amusing to me that we both seem to have gone through the same thought process but come out with different results.  I'm not terribly suspicious of Emi or Lahilt.  Kidpen, a little bit.  As much as I can be with this little information, anyway.

1 hour ago, Ashbringer said:

Maybe it could mean something, maybe it couldn't. I'll be busy today, so I probably will only make a few other posts. I will say that I'm a little put off by how certain Mage was that Walin was an Elim Connector, but it made some sense at the time. But "some sense" is relative to the lack of sense I seem to be seeing.

This is... this is the opposite of what happened.    TJ thought Walin was the Elim Connector, and I argued against it.  I'm on the same page as you; I don't really have a lot to go on at the moment, and mostly switched to Walin because I didn't want to chance a mislynch on Mist actually being a thug.

Finally, I'd love if the Coinshot could PM me, assuming they trust me.  I'm trying to gather some solid information to work from, and it would help immensely if I had some people I could trust hands-down.

I'll gladly admit to the thread that I have the spike, to clear up a little confusion.  I don't think revealing that is all too likely to increase the Elim's chances of killing me.  This is also why I'd like to have the Coinshot PM me.  I'd rather not risk double tapping anyone.

Also, I can't believe the Shouty Shout club is still alive.  How are you guys still keeping that up?   

19 minutes ago, Emi said:

Ok, so we are still losing. And we'll pobably lose. So, mabe at least I'll try to vote on somebody. Karnage, Ventyl actually never voted on you, which is kind of suspect as he is an Elim

Actually, Ventyl did vote on them, on night 3.  Also, it's the night cycle.  You don't vote during the night cycle.

Also I don't really see how we're losing.

7 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

Fantastic. Another mislynch. Just what we needed. I’m going to be taking a look at this.

But since no one wants to say the obvious... the Lerasium is still there. Pyro, Mage, you should both have enough naturally by now to try and buy it, and if we’re in a point where the Village can contest the Elims buying it than that’s what we need to do.

Since there’s an Uncharged Spike missing there might be three deaths tonight anyways, but now that there’s some time to discuss I pulsed Karnage last night. I think.

So um.  About that.  I didn't have quite enough last cycle, as I said previously, and I figured someone else would have bought it by now.  So I bought something else.    I'm not sure if Pyro would have enough either.  I could be wrong, but I think most of their posts were less than 200 words, so they wouldn't get a lot of boxings from them.

What do you mean you think you pulsed Karnage?  Are you unsure?

7 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

@Mist, sorry about that. I actually thought hard whether to reveal your role or not, but in the end I decided I would. However, it kinda ended up helping you though. 
If you are an elim, we would hesitate to kill you since it would take 2 cycles. If you are a villager, elims would not attempt to kill you at all since they just need to outnumber us and they'd obviously rather kill 2 different villagers rather than just 1 village Thug over 2 cycles. 

So that was a bust. Honestly, even my suspicion of Walin was grasping at straws. I have nothing except maybe go for The God King, since they have been inactive but the elims went for players more active than TGK like Devotary, Elkanah/Matrim, and Shard of Reading. That's all I've got. We may not get a single shred of information from their lynch but we've got to finish all the elims to win. It's getting really tough to deduce 

We've also got another headache coming our way. An uncharged spike was bought the previous night. So we may have 3 kills tonight, and it still wouldn't be an absolute indication of Ash Pulsing Coinshot/Kandra/elim. Only 4 kills would make that sure. It wouldn't matter for long though, because even if we assume that the uncharged spike was bought by a villager, if the spike kill and the Coinshot kill goes wrong, we'd be at parity come D6.  

Edit: Gah, ninja'd by Ash.

So.  Let's be optimistic here.  Lets assume the uncharged spike is in village hands.   

The coinshot is as well.  I say we hold a pseudo-vote for who each of them should kill, or at least give them some options.  I personally think The God King and Kidpen are both good options.  Karnage might be as well, but it's difficult to say.  

I don't really want to consider the possibility that there's another Elim who's just done a good job at hiding and is currently assumed to be one of the village, because it opens up a whole mess of possibilities.  But depending how this night cycle goes, I might have to take another look at some players that I'd assumed to be village.  I'm hoping that the easiest answer is the correct one, however.

There is another possibility that I'm considering...  I don't believe TJ covered this possibility, but I'm considering that the remainder of the Elims are inactive.  Elandera was the Kandra kill, an attempt at maintaining parity since they were pretty obviously village.  Kynedath was the coinshot kill, taking my advice.  And the Elims just didn't put a kill in.  Maybe Karnage and The God King, for the last two Elims?  I don't know that this is terribly likely, but I suppose it's possible.

edit:

9 hours ago, StrikerEZ said:

This turn will end on Monday, June 18th, at 9 pm CDT, and the next turn will be posted at 10 pm CDT.

Thursday*

21 minutes ago, Walin said:

I’m also fine with people voting on me \:P. However, I’m a villager and will hopefully type out more before the cycle’s over, though I doubt I have time. Either way, I’m probably going to get killed soon since I’ll claim being a Firesoul.

I can't tell if this is reverse psychology or honesty but it kinda made me not want to vote for you.

Reginald himself was feeling it.  He was quickly running out of ideas, and he felt he had less and less time to keep his strength up.  If they didn't find the last of traitors soon... well, Reginald was beginning to think of taking his chances with Darson's guards.  It might be safer than remaining here.

There were a few more things left to try, however.  Reginald was not one to give up easily, and his strength and his wit had never failed him yet.  He was not the strongest of Metalborn, but he could hold his own in a fight if it came down to it.  He could give the traitors a run for their money.  But that was a last resort.  There must be something he could do to find the final traitors.

Reginald arrived in the central area, and looked across it.  It was much emptier now.  More than half the number who had begun here had died.  There were, in fact, only a few individuals left who could be traitors.  Reginald hardened himself.  He would find the traitors.  There was still time.

Hmm.

I'm going to move my vote to Walin.  If Mist really is a Thug, I'd rather not waste the lynch this late in the game.  I don't feel particularly strongly enough about Mist to leave my vote there, either, compared to suspicions of Walin.  Walin.  I hope this works out.

As a side note, if Walin does turn Elim, I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if Kidpen is also an Elim.  So there's that.

24 minutes ago, Mist said:

Karnage hasn't been very active. He said the first day that he might have to meet the minimum activity requirements for a while. He's voted on Hatz, Emi, Ventyl, and Magestar. His continued inactivity makes me suspicious. He hasn't posted here this cycle, despite posting a topic today.

Karnage's interactions with Ventyl, a confirmed Elim, makes me doubt that Karnage is an Elim.  If I recall correctly, Ventyl voted on Karnage when their lynches were close, as self preservation.  While that could have been a little bit of Elim misdirection since they were both on the chopping block, I don't think it's something most Elims would think to do.

I'm trying to remove most forms of Elim misdirection from my mind at the moment, since such thoughts are most likely to just be paranoia on my part.  At the moment it's helped me narrow down my list of possible suspects from nearly the entire list to a couple of people.  I'm not sure how wise this is, but it's letting me vote this cycle, so I'm going to stick with it and hope it works out.

If my posts seem a little bit rambly, it's cause I'm angling to get some more boxings.    Also because I'm trying to process my own thoughts, which are a little scrambled at the moment.

Ok, so I did a quick look over Ventyl's posts again.  Ventyl tried to get Emi lynched as well.  So I'm really not seeing Emi being a potential Elim, and I don't think Elandera was killed for their reads.  However, Ventyl did have a "village read" on Walin... Idk.  It doesn't seem super indicative, or at least it shouldn't be.  I don't think the Elims would have killed Elandera for that, and I don't think it really says anything about Walin either.  Another problem with this is that I feel like if we lynch Walin, we'll basically be back to square one, as far as analysis goes.  Walin hasn't been terribly active, so there wouldn't be a lot to analyze.

I think Karnage is also pretty clean...  so we've basically got Kidpen, Mist, and Walin as potential Elims, in my mind.  Being super strict and not accounting for any players who might have bussed their teammates or anything, I think those are our options.  I wouldn't necessarily be surprised if any combination of those players are the last two or three Elims.  For now, though, I'll leave my vote on Mist.  If they're not an Elim... I don't know.  I might move my vote to Walin before the end of the cycle.

I guess I'd also like to see a little more discussion and voting.  Three votes this close to the end of the cycle isn't great.

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Found something interesting. 

Quote

After a brief skim of Ventyl's posts (I weeded out pure RP and irrelevant posts made mostly during D1 when most posts was a thing), I have a few more things to say. Emi and Walin may be worth a coinshot kill/lynch.

Yeah...  I tend to be very skeptical of that sort of thing, because as an Elim it seems like it would be very odd to kill someone just because they expressed minor suspicions of you.  Additionally, Elandera later cleared up their suspicions of Emi, and actually ended up defending them.  That leaves Walin.  It would be really odd if the Elims killed someone just because they expressed suspicion of a single Elim.

So I don't really put a lot of weight on that.

3 hours ago, Ashbringer said:

It's also going to be really hard to judge whether there is a missing kill, because my guess is that someone has the lerasium now, which means that the Elims may have an extra Coinshot or defensive role like Slider.

47 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

Why would you think that?

If I'd made three more posts over the course of the game, I could have had it last cycle.  Needless to say, I was slightly disappointed.  Anyway, I feel like I'm probably not the richest player, so I assume someone else bought the Lerasium last cycle.   

47 minutes ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

My point is even if he didn't there's no reason not to share. Just because he blocked someone doesn't mean they are necessarily going to be lynched. It's definitely not proof of a kill role, but it's something that can certainly swing a close decision, or provide someone to look into.

I guess.  I think the difference here is just a difference of opinion; I wouldn't give that sort of information any real weight in my lynch decisions.  So it doesn't really matter to me if he shares.  I think it would really just confuse things further, since we still won't really know anything about the person Ash Pulsed.

I'd love a vote count.  I'm not really sure what's gonna happen this cycle... I wish I had a more confident suspicion of someone, but everything's sort of iffy right now.  I think the big problem is that the Elims we've killed so far haven't interacted with people a whole bunch; Kynedath was basically inactive except for his interactions with Xino, who basically just posted role analysis in the beginning.  Then there's Ventyl.  I suppose I could take a look at their posts again, but I haven't seen anything super interesting.

I might change my vote later.

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

They could have. They'd still have only 4 charges though. Yeah, they can only store during the day. It's in the rules doc. 

Ah ok.  My bad.

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Yes, but I'm not assuming they are elim just because they are Connector. There are other reasons I stated above like role-claiming, offering to clear Ventyl etc. 

That's fair.  I wouldn't necessarily be against lynching Walin, I guess.  I'm just not all that certain of their Elimness.

9 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Huh, what? I just revealed their role. Why would I do that if I was an elim? I'd be happy for the villagers to waste a cycle lynching a player with double-life if I was an elim. I wasn't discouraging you from killing Mist. I was merely asking if we should go for an immediate kill or are we in a comfortable situation to follow a hunch on a player with double-life. I'm wary because of Elandera's statement from earlier when she said she had been lynched just because she was a Thug when she was a villager. There's also a chance that there is a Thug of each alignment and I'm just worried we might end up wasting 2 cycles to end up killing the villager. I also voted for Mist alongside you last cycle. If I was an elim, then I would've known her role then and would have discouraged you from voting last cycle itself. I'm only telling now because I did not know till recently. As for how I know, would it be too much to ask you to trust me? (yes I know it would be too much  )

Woah.    If Mist isn't really a Thug then it kinda makes sense.  But you're right, I maybe took it too far.  I'm sorry, I'm super suspicious of everyone right now.  Maybe it's because I don't really feel like I have any leads, so I'm kinda grasping at straws.

7 hours ago, The Young Pyromancer said:

In what way?

So, kinda along the lines of what TJ said, I feel like you're making a lot of assumptions about Ash.  You're assuming that he did in fact hit a kill role, when it's entirely possible that he hit someone random and the kill role just didn't do their stuff.  This possibility is extremely likely if the Kandra role went to someone random.   It's a little odd to me that you were so adamant about certain things, especially in your latest post, when I feel like it's already been explained in-thread that there's a lot of uncertainty here.

I also don't really understand why people are sharing this info with you and TJ.    I mean, I feel like you're kinda village, but I don't have this info and it's surprising to me that other people have it.  I kinda forgot PMs existed.

6 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

I also find the kill on Elandera weird. Till now, the elims were content with killing inactive and semi-active players. That changed this cycle. I'll go back and check her posts to see if it was something she said. 

It may be that the player who was encouraging that style of killing has died, or that the Elims became more desperate upon losing an additional member.  Elandera did kinda push the Ventyl lynch.  Idk.

31 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Before I possibly put myself on a kill-list by the Kandra or Elims, how well do you know the Coinshot kill went through? Pulsing isn't a Roleblock, I think it's a redirect, so if all your Archivist knows is that the Coinshot wasn't roleblocked then I don't know if that also means they weren't Pulsed. Plus it's still a 11/13 chance (or however many players there are minus two) that I mistakenly incriminate someone and there was something else weird going on.

Yeah... there's unfortunately still the possibility that the Kandra simply didn't put in a kill, for whatever reason, and that you pulsed someone else randomly.  I don't think there's really a way to solve this easily.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Underline mine. It says to change 2 votes it requires another 2 charges i.e. totally 3 charges. Changing a third vote requires yet another 3 charges i.e. 6 charges. You can charge only during the day. They would have around 3 charges (as they were inactive in D1), just enough to change 2 votes. 

Could they not have merely pretended to be inactive D1?  And you're sure they can only store during the day?  That would make sense, although it's not immediately obvious from the role description.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

It's not so much as an assumption rather than a conclusion drawn by the process of elimination. There is no one more likely to be Connector than Walin. Everyone else has had their vote counted in majority of the cycles. 

Yes, but you're assuming there is a Connector, that the Connector is an Elim, and that Walin has a reason for not voting besides being inactive.  I still don't think the Elims would have a Rioter and a connector.

28 minutes ago, TJ Shade said:

Fair warning. I have it on good authority that Mist is not someone you can kill in a single cycle. 

Thug?  Pretty sure that's the only one that survives the lynch.  How do you know?

If needed, we could finish them off in a later cycle.  That would take some resource expenditure, though, so I guess I'd have to be pretty confident that Mist is an Elim... assuming you're correct, it seems unlikely that the Elims would have a Thug unless they only have 5 players.  Actually, having a Thug might be the perfect way to balance a 5 player team, which keeps the standard distribution while not upsetting balance.  Interesting.

I'm going to leave my vote on Mist for now.  There's a lot of weird stuff flying around, a lot of reveals happening.  It makes me more suspicious of everyone except Ash, who oddly seems less suspicious now than before.  Kinda confused what's going on with Pyro, and I don't know why TJ is discouraging me from killing Mist.  If Mist flips Elim it would make me think TJ is also an Elim.

Good cycle for setting up analysis in later cycles.  Bad cycle for knowing what I should do right now.    I think I'll wait it out for a bit.

10 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Two kills this cycle, so many possibilities:

1. Inactive kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Main suspect - The God King.
2. Semi-active/cautious kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Probable, but not highly likely. Main suspects - Walin, Kidpen, Karnage, Emi
3. Roleblocked kandra, kills from Coinshot and Eliminator: Cannot speculate the suspects but players with roleblock abilities and Steel Traps, be wary. Your targets could be kandra.
4. Semi-active Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Will not speculate anything pertaining to the Coinshot for obvious reasons.
5. Roleblocked Coinshot, kills from kandra and Eliminator: Same as 3. Players with roleblock ability and Steel Traps, your targets could have been the kandra or Coinshot.
6. Coinshot-Kandra double-tap, kill from Eliminator: In this case, the Eliminator would have obviously targeted Elandera, meaning Coinshot and Kandra double-tapped Kynedath. This is fairly possible since Magestar has been advocating for a Kynedath kill for a long time, and it's reasonable to assume the Kandra and Coinshot took his advice (or he's the Kandra and took his own advice since it's the first time he got the opportunity to kill since becoming a Kandra )
7. Eliminator-Kandra double-tap, kill from Coinshot: Possible, but I cannot fathom why the Kandra would want to kill Elandera. 
8. Coinshot-Eliminator double-tap, kill from Kandra: Again, I cannot think of a reason the Coinshot would want to kill Elandera.
9. Roleblocked Eliminator, kills from Coinshot and Kandra: Well, whoever roleblocked the exact elim who would submit the kill is very very lucky indeed. It's a 1/13 chance, but they could reduced it by not opting to block inactives/semi-inactives. So even by just removing Walin, Kidpen, and TGK, they have a 1/10 chance of hitting the elim submitting the kill. Not improbable.

I was just thinking about this, actually.  If Araris really was killed without getting to choose a successor, then it's entirely possible that the current Kandra is inactive, especially given how many inactives or partial actives we have right now.  I was thinking it might be more likely than having an inactive coinshot... but I suppose that the coinshot has been somewhat inconsistent in night kills as well, IIRC.  Difficult to say, really.  

5 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Walin:

• Active every cycle except the first, but are yet to involve in a single lynch vote. 
• If there is a Connector in the game, Walin would be the best possible candidate as suggested by their lack of votes. As you all can deduce, an elim Connector would be very very dangerous. 
• Role-claim could be done to earn the trust of the villagers.
• Volunteered to help prove Ventyl's role. 
• Kynedath's death was not good because they would give us reads and info. Well, they can only give us reads to analyse only if we're sure they are elim and that is possible only when they are dead. Again, not much to read on since Kynedath is not active since D1.

If we are lynching them, it should be unanimous because if they are Connector, they probably have enough charges to change 2 votes.

This is a rather long string of assumptions.  It relies on too many things being true for me to want to vote for Walin.  And I agree with Ash that if there were a Elim Connector, they'd have stored more than enough charges to change two votes.  Additionally, if there were an Elim Connector, I think we'd have seen it used more often.  It's a powerful ability.  Considering Xino was a Rioter, I sincerely doubt that the Elims have a Connector as well.  That would give them way too much lynch control, especially late game.

42 minutes ago, Ashbringer said:

Oh dear. So I may have Pulsed either the Coinshot, Kandra, or an Elim.

Uhhh... yeah, I'm not saying who I hit. That would be a bad idea whatever the circumstance. I did hit someone, though. It's just going to be difficult to tell, since daggers, dead targets, and Hemalurgists make it really hard to tell whether my Pulsing hit a kill action or not. If there are only two kills next turn, then I can probably half-clear my target. Assuming they don't kill me for revenge. HELP.

Emi, I don't really suspect you, it's just I'm completely out of leads, and you did interact with Ventyl a lot. I was tunneling on Ventyl for two full cycles, and while I was luckily right, I'm out of leads. So now I have no idea which people to go after. I'll see if I can analyze Kynedath and Ventyl's interactions with people.

I am a little worried that Elim!Mage could have been trying to bus an inactive Kynedath, but like TJ mentioned that's not really a lead.

I will say, that it seems like our Coinshot has been killing off inactives, not necessarily suspects of the Village. I'm not entirely sure what that means for the village.

Hmm.  I considered arguing that you should share, but after some thought I agree with you.  The circumstances are too unclear to make sharing a good idea.  The difficult bits of the situation is if you did hit an Elim, or if you hit someone random and the lack of a kill are coincidences...

I'd suggest you PM me to say who you blocked but you all seem to be somewhat distrustful of me for some reason.  I'd suggest as an alternative telling someone you trust, but I don't really trust anyone else.    A difficult position you're in.  I suppose we just have to wait until the next night cycle to see what happens.

I'm going to take my vote off of Karnage since TJ's analysis of them kinda tilts my suspicion away from them.  I'll vote for Mist for now.

29 minutes ago, Emi said:

Well, you all suspect that I'm and elim... could I know why?

Well, I personally didn't say that I suspected you as an Elim.  At this point, it's more of a case of not thinking anyone else is really likely to be an elim.  With this few players left, I think you're one of the only ones who could still be an Elim.  The reasons I'd suspect you are mostly that nothing you've done has been super village, and that while being pretty active on other parts of this site, you haven't really been all that active here.  Could be an Elim trying to fly under the radar.

I'd still be more suspicious of Karnage right off the bat though.  They've been involved in more suspicious things, and they voted for me in a fairly opportunistic way last cycle.   

I'm still roughly as suspicious of Mint as I have been in previous cycles, but their votes last cycle didn't seem to make a lot of sense for an Elim.  It was kind of weird how little opposition there was to the Ventyl lynch, actually.  That's what makes me worry it was some kind of gambit.

Then again, considering how rampant inactivity has been in this game, it's also entirely possible that the rest of the Elim team just wasn't active enough to try and save one of their members.  The inactivity is really a shame too, because this is such a good game otherwise.  

4 hours ago, TJ Shade said:

Magestar is soft-cleared for elim due to his suspicion and push on Kynedath's vote. I need to go back and check if his suspicion on Kynedath arose before or after Araris died. If it was after, he's a likely candidate for Kandra.

But why? 

I don't really mind all the suspicion of me being the Kandra because it doesn't really impact the game in any major way, but it's kinda funny how many of you think I'm Kandra.  It'd be funny if I was the Kandra, but it's even funnier because I'm not.    I guess I'm glad you don't think I'm an Elim.

For some reason I'm kinda worried that the Ventyl lynch was a trick.  I feel like it might have been an Elim bus gambit.  That's probably just my paranoia speaking, though.  The lynch was pushed kinda hard and without much reason to be an Elim trick.  The Elims were actually doing pretty well up until this last cycle anyway.

With Kynedath gone I don't expect there to be more than two to three Elims left.  That puts us in a pretty decent place to win the game.  Additionally, I feel pretty confident that Ash, TJ, and Pyro aren't Elims.  I think Lahilt probably isn't an Elim either.  The God King is inactive, so it's not really worth spending the lynch on them, IMO.  That leaves Karnage, Emi, Kidpen, Mist, and Walin.  That's about two to three Elims in a group of roughly five lynch options.  I think the best options are probably Karnage and Mist, with Kidpen coming in a close second.  Mist's voting patterns seem a little odd for an Elim, so I'm going to throw a vote on Karnage and see how that one shakes out. 

I'll try and get some more analysis out later in the cycle.

Called it.

Oh thank goodness.  We needed that win.    

Yeah, that basically clears Ash for me.  Things are looking up.  I'll post my thoughts in the morning.