hoser

You decide how gutsy you want to be. Specificity is necessary for verifiability. Only the gutsy version above seems verifiable to me. I will add any verifiable non-spoiler claim (please don't try to test this claim) to the OP. I do think "No more than half of the POV characters ..." is slightly more understandable for inarticulate clods like myself.

Not really. I'm just suggesting that in order for it to be gutsy claim, Kurkistan might want to say that 3 or 4 of the POV characters will not become Radiants. I am doing my best not for filter these claims for anything but clarity, specificity and verifiability. My judgments interfere with my ability to serve.

You win! I apparently created a confusing explanation and you beat me with a followup that baffles me (not hard to do) . I'll try to focus on something that seems relevant. I believe that Szeth's eyes become light and change color to sapphire specifically when he has the sword in hand (independant of whether he is infusing) and revert thereafter. I believe that when he is infusing without the sword his eyes retain their original color although they may seem like a lighter version of the original color due to his overall glow and leaking stormlight. Do we agree on this or should we look for textual support? When Taln carries what I believe to be his Honorblade, his eyes are dark. When Dalinar wields his Radiantblade, there is no mention of his eye color changing or becoming lighter (they are already light). So I see 3 different behaviors and Brandon says that we have seen 3 kinds of Shardblades. There are two mentions of his armor seeming to glow, but we don't know if he infuses or what his eyes look like. I don't understand how this relates.

Thanks Kurkistan, "One of the main POV characters for the Stormlight Archive will not become a Radiant before the end of the series" seems specific and verifiable to me, so I like it (it even allows for an extra book to sneak in there, if needed) and will be delighted to add it to the list. Given that Taln and maybe Eshonai will be POV characters, I don't know that it will turn out to be the most controversial claim around. Is that an acceptable version of the claim you are making or do you have a better idea?

Given that Brandon has said that each of the ten books will feature a different Radiant order, it seems possible that many of the 10 "Book POV" characters will be Radiants. At some point we can use process of elimination on the remaining POV characters to assign them to orders. The definition of "major character" seems unclear and fluid to me.

A similar thread has been getting some interest over in the Stormlight Archive and there have been some "discussions" over here also. If people want to be publicly "right" (and risk being the "other right"), they can publicly commit to their theories here. I actually even have an instance to provide, as I argued for Regrowth as part of a surge in December of '11, espoused it in my sig and can now claim vindication. Anyway, if people want to play along, post the things you want to be known as right about in this thread and I'll keep an updated list in the OP. No waffling permitted. If you don't feel strongly about an issue, just pass. "I maybe told you" is just lame. No arms, stalking, consumption of headgear or other material sacrifice will be at risk here, just public glory or humiliation come March (or sooner). Darkness=Nalan. Yes: Mailliw73, marianmi, Bloodfalcon, Ethrien, Gloom, ADIMORTIS, kraefzke. No: jasonpenguin, Meg. Jezrien is incapacitated (drooling) or the "Have you seen me?" guy in the prelude. Yes: Mailliw73, marianmi, Bloodfalcon. No: hoser, stormfather, jasonpenguin, ADIMORTIS, Meg. SETTLED: No. Szeth kills the Azish primes after his conversation w/Mr. T at the end of tWoK. Wrong: hoser, Bloodfalcon, jasonpenguin. Right: stormfather, marianmi, Ethrien, Gloom, ADIMORTIS. One or more of the Heralds had a role in the Knights Radiant disbanding (Fistsof rage, please delete the post proposing this from the Stormlight Archive forum. I think it is an excellent claim, but spoilerific). Yes: Fistsofrage, Gloom, jasonpenguin, Bloodfalcon, kraefzke. No: ADIMORTIS. Kokerlii's (thought-detection-blocking bird) power works nearly identically to Allomantic copper, though perhaps on a different power-level. Yes: Kurkistan, ADIMORTIS No: jasonpenguin. Once an item is SETTLED, no more names will be added to that item.

Thanks. I just don't want to have a bunch of "I told you maybe"s on the list and the word "potential" threw me off. My idea for this list is to have only those theories that people really get behind and be right about. If Adolin becomes a Skybreaker you will be right with verified "I told you so" authentication and if he becomes a different order (Stoneward, for example) you will be the "other right".

Or she doesn't want her minions to know that she has one.

I like it! A new line of speculation. Please clarify this one for me. Does this mean: "If Adolin becomes a Radiant, he will be a Skybreaker", "Adolin will become a Skybreaker" or something else?

Since Baxil's mistress has light eyes, she has presumably had a Radiantblade in the past, if she doesn't have one currently (this assumes that her Honorblade left her eyes dark, as Taln's seems to have done.

Well, I am torn here. I am delighted to see that my stubborn wrongheadedness has apparently contributed to inspiring someone to join our shared obsession. I don't want my abrasive communication to make this an unpleasant experience and maybe interfere w/your enjoyment of the forums at all. But pussyfooting around to protect your feelings seems patronizing, so here I go. Sure, some number of lighteyed Shardbearers could take our Shards. It is just as likely that we could get together with some darkeyed Shardbearers and take Shards from lighteyed people and decide that darkeyed people are the nobility. Or it could be people who are a certain height. Or it could be any other random attribute. Almost by definition, the nobility is a minority. We are given an explanation (Shardblades lighten eye color) for why the lighteyed minority rule in Alethkar and Jah Keved. Without support from the book, any other theory to explain why lighteyes became the nobility post-Recreance seems to get cut by Occam's razor. We saw one (and the suggestion that there are others) that had a ceremonial protector who did have a Shardset. In this case, the protector gains status and the ruler has some measure of control. In a way, they are ruling together. Do we know of any cases where a highprince without Shards is ruling over people with Shards? Apparently Sadeas was exceptional in not having a blade. Is there evidence that he rules over anyone w/a Shardset before Kaladin did his thing? Sure, anything is possible. But, given that the book provides a simple explanation (Shards change eye color), and your explanation is complicated and without support from the text, I don't see a reason to believe it. Basically, I accept what's in the book unless it is inconsistent or discounting it creates a larger consistency. Using the positive reputation of the Radiants to explain how a minority came to power when the Radiants don't really have a positive reputation can be done, but it's complicated. There is no payoff in understanding the world better and it involves discounting part of the information we are provided for no apparent reason. Before Brandon told us that we've seen three types of Shardblades, there was a payoff to believing that Szeth held an Honorblade. The world was simpler with only two kinds of Shardblade and it connected things. Discounting parts of the text to cling to a theory whose payoff creates inconsistencies with what Brandon says doesn't make sense to me.

I didn't record this one because I think 14. is referring to the 10 larger circles that correspond to orders on the Radiant chart and I thought you were referring to the 10 smaller circles that correspond to surges on the Radiant chart. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

The killer for this theory (which I once agreed with) for me was the WoB that we have seen 3 types of Shardblade in tWoK. With the unique effect on Szeth's eyes, this blade is the only one that seems different from the Honorblades and Radiantblades that we know are two of the types. None of the other modern Shardblades that we have seen seem distinct from the Radiantblades that they presumably once were. Some evidence has been accumulating that Hoid's blade may be an awakened blade, but would that make it a Shardblade? If we could find another candidate blade representing the third type of Shardblade, that would strengthen this theory IMO.

Um. Talk to them. Communicate. Negotiate. Let them know why you think it is a bad idea. Gavilar was completely surprised that the Parshendi were behind the assassination. They could have sent someone without a Shardblade, or any one of themselves. Isn't it less honorable to send a slave on a risky and dishonorable assignment than to go yourself? It just seems confused, like their sense of honor, a corrupted muddle. Are we saying that the Shards are purely cognitive? Because if they have a spiritual aspect then this quote argues for Shardic intent being somewhat absolute. We already know that while the bearer of the Shard is affected by the Intent of the Shard, the Shardic intent is not affected at all by the bearer.

Call me confused here. Should this last paragraph say Herald rather than Radiant in the second sentence? If it really should say Radiant then I don't understand, because I believe the Honorblades were around and effective long before there were any Radiants. If it should say Herald then the third sentence raises a raft of questions such as, would it change the order of the Radiant if they didn't match or give them another set of surges. But since we know of no case where it has happened, nor the effects, it seems entirely hypothetical. We have no idea what the additional powers of the Honorblades are. If the Heralds were inherently surgebinders, but the swords made them stronger, it would fit the evidence just as well. It comes to this, which I believed when I thought Szeth had Jezrien's Honorblade. This seems circular. Szeth has an honorblade. Szeth has windrunning powers. Therefore Honorblades give surgebinding powers. I don't see any evidence or logic supporting the idea that Honorblades give the Heralds surgebinding. All we really know is that Szeth has windrunning abilities. They are aligned with the magic system on Roshar, as are the Heralds, the Radiants and the bonding spren. If they come from the sword, then they come from the sword, that's all. If the sword is an Honorblade, then Honorblades provide surgebinding. If the Stone Shamans made the sword, then Shamanblades provide Surgebinding. If it's Excalibur, then Excalibur provides surgebinding. If it's the Sword in the Stone, then the Sword in the Stone (not the same as Excalibur) provides surgebinding. Well, we know that they are still effectively immortal, so they are not giving up all their power. They are betraying the purpose that gave them their powers. They are giving up their place in the Oathpact and contradicting the values that they are supposed to embody. They are admitting defeat and consigning one of their comrades to even more prolonged (eternal possibly) torture. Some of these things might be significant to them in addition to giving up the blades. Interesting ending to this post. I hope it's the server and not my PC. Fatal error: Out of memory (allocated 0) (tried to allocate 381184304 bytes) in Unknown on line 0

Yes there are some cultural variances and gray areas, but Shardic intent and common sense seems like it should have an effect in this world. By your argument, you could make the case that Odium's behavior is honorable. So Odium is the same as Honor and we need another intent for the now intentless Shard once known as Honor. The general alethi concept of honor has been corrupted, which we can easily tell. The Parshendi may be operating under some other corrupted meaning of honor, but the OP seems to be referring to an absolute meaning of honor when he claims they have been completely honorable. Syl's consciousness does not seem to have been changed by the corruption in the Alethi concept of honor, so I would argue that from the Shardic point of view, your argument is, at best, partially true.

It's meant to be hard to tell what Kaladin looked like. The possibilities I see are: Eyes leaking light and glowing while infusing Eyes lightening while infusing in addition to glowing When Dalinar refers to that time, he refers to him as "taking charge like a lighteyes" or something similar. When he rescues Dalinar (the first time they meet in person), he is invested (he put most of his stormlight in the ground, but kept enough to keep going), but Dalinar describes him as darkeyed. If there is a temporary lightening of Kaladin's eyes while invested, it still doesn't explain the lighteyed Radiants at the end of the Radiance vision or the enduring Alethi nobility, so it seems irrelevent to the differences between Szeth's blade and the other blades we've seen. Szeth/Shamanblade changes eye color temporarily. Radiantblades either have no effect or permanently lighten eyes (even affecting descendants). The only Honorblade we've seen leaves the eyes dark when borne. So it seems a valid argument against the Szethblade=Honorblade thesis.

The biggest question for me is: What did the radiants do with them? Assuming we can believe the Recreance vision, that gives us 300 blades from 2 orders. I believe there is now WoB that all the orders were armed, even though not all Knights were armed. What happened to the remaining blades and armor from the other orders? The knights could have abandoned them in other places on the same day, but then we would have more blades to account for, so that doesn't help. The Knights could have easily seeded blades among other populations, including the Parshendi.

Welcome! Consider, after the Recreance, the Radiants don't have blades and are known as traitors to mankind. A bunch of darkeyes pick up the blades. How would the situation evolve to where only lighteyes have shardblades and the lighteyes are the nobility? If I have darkeyes and a Shardblade, no unSharded light-eyed person will rule me or my descendants or take our Shardblade, ever. The eyes are presumably linked to the spiritual realm (which would explain why they burn out when a person is Shardbladed), where the blades may reside when unsummoned. Binding to a blade could change the SDNA relating to eye color, which would be passed to descendents. We are told over and over how this works. That may be a good reason to doubt it, but Alethela got along just fine for millenia without normally blue and green -eyed people in charge. Why would that change post-Recreance? Given the reputation of the Radiants and the fact that the normally blue and green -eyed people were already around and not in charge, I don't understand how the devolution you describe would occur.

Good point. However, my main point was that the use of magic is apparently detectable. Either Kaladin's mind or the force projecting the dream to Kaladin can see Szeth doing his thing.

What meg said, and I only made the claim about Radiantblades, not Szeth/Shamanblades or Honorblades. Consider the Recreance vision. Pre-Recreance: darkeyes are in command and apparently only Radiants have Shardblades and lighteyes. How else do you get to where everybody with a Shardblade is lighteyed and exclusively part of the nobility? Or do you reject the Recreance vision?

Remember Kaladin's stormriding dream. Apparently Kaladin could detect Szeth's use of magic. Presumably Darkness can do something similar. Is the detection being done by larkin? fabrial? surge? innate? If the larkin is doing it, then it must have a way to communicate, because they won't set the thing free and it would be painful to find surgebinders across a continent by looking at the direction an animal turns it's head. (Of course, if Darkness had the powers of a Skybreaker, he could free it and fly after it to recapture it. That still doesn't seem like a good procedure though.)

To MadRand's excellent list I would add: 6/ Taln's eyes are dark when he carries his Honorblade. Radiantblades apparently lighten at least some people's eyes permanently and in a way that affects their descendants. The Szethblade temporarily lightens and changes his eye color, but his eyes apparently revert when he is not using it.

Perhaps it is just my base nature, but another of cem's great posts reminded me of something that might be kind of fun. We could go on record with our "I told you so" ideas. This OP could start out with a list of the issues and members who will commit to taking sides. In April, we could see how we did for those that are resolved. I imagine it will be quite humbling for me, as I am wrong a lot and tend to remember my successes, but I think it will be fun too. I do love being right. I am placing this here, but if people like it, we can make one for the WoR forum also, as I want to be careful to not spoilerize anybody. Surgebinders will have no more than 3 powers, and specifically windrunners will only be able to infuse and perform the 3 lashings as defined in the Ars Arcanum of tWoK. Yes: cem?, Natans, Mailliw73, marianmi, Gloom. No: hoser, Argent?, Aether, Moogle Windrunnners have a "Force Push" ability. Yes: Aether, Mailliw73. No: Natans, marianmi, Chrono The Stonewards have a communication ability (I believe the female knight exercises it in the Starfalls vision, but I don't know if that will ever be confirmed). Yes: hoser No: Moogle, Natans, Mailliw73, Kurkistan There are 10 different types of spren that give the ability to Surgebind and they are all Splinters. Yes: cem, hoser, Natans, Mailliw73, Kurkistan, marianmi, Chrono, Gloom Stormriding: is a side-effect of either being a Surgebinder or a Radiant (therefore available to all surgebinders). Yes: cem. No: Natans, Mailliw73, marianmi, hoser, Chrono, Gloom. Riding the storm is the Windrunner special ability. No other Radiant order will be able to do it. Yes: Scott, Natans, marianmi, hoser, Chrono, Gloom. No: Mailliw73 Szeth is in possession of an Honorblade. Yes: Aether, Bloodfalcon, Natans, marianmi, Gloom. No: MadRand, hoser, Mailliw73, Kurkistan, dyring Shardblades are corrupted (Yes: marianmi) by Odium. Yes: Mailliw73. No: MadRand, Natans, dyring. Shallan's brother (Nan Heleran?) was the Shardbearer who attacked Amaram back in Alethkar. Yes: Moogle, Natans, Mailliw73, Kurkistan, dyring, marianmi. Dalinar will be a Stoneward. We will see his spren in WoR. Yes: Scott, Natans, Mailliw73. No: marianmi. Kaladin will wield a Shardspear in WoR. Yes: Scott, Natans, Mailliw73, Gloom. No: marianmi Baxil's mistress is Shallash. Yes: Moogle, Natans, Mailliw73, Kurkistan, marianmi, Chrono, Gloom The two Surge-charts were created by Honor and Cultivation and establish the magic system. Yes: Bloodfalcon, Natans, Mailliw73, Gloom No: Kurkistan, marianmi The Order images on Cultivation's Surge-chart (woman, big gem, lightning) are images of spren. Yes: Bloodfalcon, Natans, Mailliw73 No: marianmi The Order images on Honor's Surge-chart (Radiants) are images of Honorblades. Yes: Bloodfalcon, marianmi, Gloom No: Voidbringers will have the inverse characteristics of the Heralds. Yes: Natans No: Mailliw73, marianmi, Gloom The Tranquiline Halls and Damnation are both based off of real places in the Physical Realm. More specifically, they are other planets in the Roshar System. Yes: Gloom, Natans, Mailliw73. No: marianmi There are no spren created (without having previously existed in another form) by Odium. Yes: Gloom, Mailliw73, marianmi, Chrono, Gloom. No: . The Radiants had a plan when they Recreanted that included saving information for their resurrection with the Vanrial. Yes: hoser, Natans. No: marianmi, Gloom Urithiru is located on the main continental land mass of Roshar to the west of Alethela in the physical realm. Yes: hoser, Natans, dyring. No: marianmi Szeth gets his windrunner abilities from his Shardblade. Yes: hoser, Natans, Kurkistan, marianmi, Gloom. No: Mailliw73. The parshendi killed Gavilar because "The evil sphere of doom" was a corrupted spren that could create a "voidbringer parshendi form". Yes: Natans. No: marianmi, Aether, Gloom. Shallarin (Shallan-Renarin shipping) will happen in WoR. Yes: Mailliw73. No: marianmi The Ten Fools will have the inverse characteristics of the Heralds. Yes: Mailliw73. No: marianmi Syl is no ordinary honorspren. She is qualitatively different from other Honorspren in addition to her unique personality. Yes: bartbug. No: Kurkistan, Mailliw73, Aether, Gloom. Kaladin's father, Lirin, will end up working for Taravangian. Yes: Gamma Fiend. No: Mailliw73, Chrono, Aether, Gloom. Kaladin will wield a Shardspear in book 5. Yes: marianmi, Mailliw73, Gloom. By book 5. Yes: Aether. Renarin will become a Skybreaker. Yes: Mailliw73. No: Aether, Gloom. If Adolin becomes a KR, he will be a Dustbringer. Yes: Mailliw73. No: Aether. No more than half of the POV characters will become Radiants before the end of the series. Yes: Kurkistan, Mailliw73. No: Gloom. Gaz will resurface alive. Yes: Fistsofrage, Mailliw73, Aether. No: . Bondsmiths are Order 10. Yes: Moogle (+eat hat). No: . There is never going to be a real sex scene. Yes: Galladon, Mailliw73, Gloom. No: . Over 85% of all the theories in this thread will be wrong. Yes: Gamma Fiend. No: hoser, Mailliw73, Gloom, Aether. The gems built into pre-Recreance Shardplate were there since before the Recreance. Yes: hoser, Gloom. No: . Moash is a bastard son of a lighteye or he is a darkeye born of two lighteyes. Yes: Natans, Mailliw73. No: Gloom. By writing The Way of Kings, Nohadon altered how bonding Spren (Nahel Spren) select their human partners - much in the same way Geranid and Ashir were able to "lock" Flamespren to a certain measurement by writing down its values. Yes: Aether, Mailliw73. No: . The idea is that these are the things that you believe, so if you are unsure about one of these issues or don't have an opinion, it makes sense to not say either yes or no. Aether suggests that people edit their posts to make changes. That makes sense to me. Feel free to PM me to get changes added to the OP. If you do make changes, please indicate which positions have changed or been added in an edit line at the bottom. And there is a Google Spreadsheet here, if that's how people want to do it.