Amanuensis

You're discounting the possibility that Jon scanned Lopen C1 and myself C3, and thus knew my role already, or that both Len and Jon are Forgotten!Artists and have managed to scan four players. There's also the possibility that PK scanned me and spread that information, but I can't say because I haven't heard anything about PK's scans (has anyone heard anything about it?). What we all can be certain about is that there are 4 Forgotten. One killed Lopen, one killed Brightness, one Vigor'd Seonid, and 1 Vigor'd me (or you, if you honestly think I'm evil). Not sure where the math doesn't check out there in either scenario (Jond lying, or me lying). Now think about this cycle from the Forgotten's perspective. They just have to lynch a single villager to end it, or end the day in a tie so that their faction kill and a couple well-placed vigors can allow for a conversion. Why would they not just blatantly accuse a player of using Vigor themselves? Jondesu was unlikely to have been targeted by a Line of Making himself, given his level of activity, and not pulling this maneuver would have left minimal direction for those to accuse. It's really the perfect scenario for them, and right now I believe that you're either falling for it or a part of the scheme. It also lends credence to my claim. Last cycle I put in thread I was going to PM Lopen with my role and my actions, and actually did. So between Rand and I, we could both be telling the truth, just as likely as one of us could be lying about their action. @Seonid, can I not convince you to reconsider your vote? I truly think you're village, based on the analysis I made earlier, and especially so now that Len and Rand have conveniently joined the lynch against me within such a short period of time. While Rand has thought one theory, he happens to ignore possibilities like Jon lying about the order of his Makings, which bring us to the exact same scenario overall: my word or Jon's. Considering that earlier this turn I posted analysis that pointed out Jon potentially trying to distance himself from Rand C1, as well as him not using a line of Making on Len, who at the end of C3 he himself said would rise on his suspicion list if Ecth was village, this looks pretty obviously to me as team coordination. At this point in the game, why would Jon decide to check me before one of his top suspicions? That really makes no sense to me. Does it make no sense to anyone else? Furthermore, what about the 2nd Assassin? The one that killed last night? Both Lopen and HH verified that HH protected me on C2, and that would have been the time they knew I was vulnerable if one of the four Forgotten at least used a Line of Making on me (there's nothing to say it had to be an Artist who scanned me that turn). Right now my absolute trusts are Orlok and Seonid, based on me knowing that Jon is lying. For the reasons I detailed in my analysis of Jon, I think that Rand and Len are his teammates. Among HH, Joe and Mint, one of them is the fourth teammate. Probably not HH since he voted for Jon, and I still don't think Joe is evil, so that really just leaves Mint. (C5) Votes: Thus Far (4) Amanuensis: Jondesu, Elenion, randuir, Seonid, (2) Jondesu: Amanuensis, Seonid, Hemalurgic_Headshot,

One slight error. Len claimed he scanned Orlok on C3, but didn't mention what he did last turn. EDIT: Also, Orlok already claimed he used a Line of Making on you, and saw you using Forbiddence.

Okay. I don't remotely think you're village, but I'll humor you. If you aren't teammates with Jon, why immediately assume he's telling the truth? You don't even seem to be considering the possibility of him using a Line of Vigor on Seonid himself and just accusing someone else of it. What has Jon said or done that makes him more likely to be honest, compartively? Furthermore, don't you think it's suspicious that the village has 3 Artists?

That's fair. I really hate that since the forum was updated, time-stamps are so vague within the first week. For games like these, that's the most important time to have access to that information. But yeah. I suppose I could be misremembering when Sart was viewing the thread, exactly, relative to when you sent your PM (heck, he might have just gotten offline right then). But at the very least I know Sart saw your first post, and I think he's the type of GM who would make it a priority that no one is voting for someone because of false information, which is why I came to the conclusion that you didn't use a Line of Making at all.

I don't really see it as a matter of honor or not, but I do apologize for insulting you. Thing is, I did check when Sart was viewing the thread last night, and it said he last visited the page several minutes after your second post. Therefore if he did mix up the orders, there's no reason why he wouldn't have corrected it immediately. I'm not questioning whether or not he's actually responded to you. I'm questioning whether or not you actually asked, because I believe you're lying about what we both did last night. The alternative should have been clarified by now. I'm sorry, but I can't justify something that didn't happen. @Elenion, @Hemalurgic_Headshot, @Frozen Mint. Can any of you corroborate Jon's story or mine? You three are the only ones who haven't posted yet. I'm not sure what tactics you're even referring to. How would you react if a player announced in thread that you took an action you didn't?

Alright, this post is going to come in two parts. I'll kick it off replying to the things that I missed while I was sleeping, then end it with analysis of Jondesu. I'm hoping I'll be able to find something incriminating considering what we know now, but including his comments this cycle, he's only posted 13 times, so I don't think I'll have a lot to sift through. In retrospect, that might have been the point in his low-activity, but I've also been more busy than usual lately, and I'm aware of Jondesu's real life situation, so I wouldn't dare accuse him of fabricating it. This post. Just... sigh. I get where you're coming from, Orlok. It's reasonable and accurate often enough (thought it isn't right now), but saying things like "suspicion ought to be cast" on me just because I've been left alive is the kind of thing eliminators would want to take advantage of. I mean, look at their trend of kills throughout the game. Three low-active players died in a row (Darkness Ascendant, Silverblade5, Paranoid King), it appears the Forgotten were aiming to deprive the village of information and not risk hitting anyone who would be protected (I protected myself C1 and C3, and had protection on the night I warded from HH, so it turns out they were right to do so). This is the first time we've seen a second kill, and now that Rand mentions it, it's more reasonable than I initially believed for the Forgotten to begin the game with an Assassin, given they can only use their kill every other cycle, and with every player being able to use a Line of Forbiddence to protect themselves and others, or Lines of Making to see if someone uses a Line of Revocation, there's a good chance they can be stopped or caught in the act. If the Forgotten have had an Assassin every cycle, and they succeeded in killing someone last turn, that means the last time they had to have used the ability was C2. No one has come forward saying they've scanned me (apart from Jon, who's lying), which makes me think there's a decent chance I was checked out by the Forgotten D1 to see what action I took. If they did, they would have seen me use Forbiddence, and thus know that I was vulnerable C2, and would have tried to attack me. Based on this theory than the only reason I'm alive right now is because HH decided to protect me that turn. I mentioned this to Lopen last turn and he verified the story in thread, so anyone can go back to read it if they want evidence. I'd also be happy if HH could chime in, because with Jon making the play he is now, I suspect that if not every villager votes for the right person, this game is over. Personally I wouldn't spend any time analyzing Randuir this turn, Orlok, since it's clear either myself or Jon is evil. If you've got the time to do it, however, I'd recommend you take care of Rand last. Either way I look forward to seeing what you have to say. I was planning on it, don't worry. Just wanted to tell everyone outright that I didn't use Vigor last night, as otherwise I'd probably have more votes on me for something that's not even true. I was not aware of his role, hence why I accused him at the end of C3. By that list, Joe wasn't aware either, nor was HH or Orlok, but I'm not sure how much this matters since I know that Jondesu was evil. That means the Forgotten knew already, and if I had to guess, the main reason they didn't kill Lopen until now is because that information wasn't entirely open yet. By waiting to kill him, Jon could have simultaneously earned trust and implicated those who were ignorant. Plus, think about it realistically. You don't think the elims used a Line of Making on Lopen at least once, only to discover that he drew no Lines (which, as a villager, could only mean one thing). As I talked about above, I agree with this theory, and believe that I was the target C2. Apart from the elims purposely ignoring me so that they could pull something like this (accuse me of using Vigor and then mention how I typically don't live long as a villager), it's also possible they did attack me. I've been trying to figure out why I'm still alive for a couple turns, now, and I think I've finally got a solid answer. As for the numbers, if I was Vigor'd, that's 2 less points the town would get from Warding, plus 1 less from the elim not participating. We can also assume that every elim didn't Ward that turn, and since Jon is lying, I'm leaning they have 4 players instead of 3. So, let's do the math. 4 Forgotten: 1 Vigors me, 1 Vigors Seonid, 1 attacks Lopen, 1 attacks Brightness. In this scenario, my Warding no longer counts, Seonid used Forbiddence instead of Warding. Orlok just said he used a Line of Making on Seonid and saw him use Forbiddence, so that's 2 Villagers with free actions versus 3-4 Forgotten. This, however, assumes Orlok and Seonid aren't on a team with Jon, which is a possibility, but I'm of the opinion that Orlok village, which corroborates Seonid. Therefore, yes. In this scenario, there would have been a conversion, which is why I think that it's right. That means players with open actions last night were Len, HH, Joe, Mint and you. Including Jon, that means 3 of those would be evil, and the other 2 village. Okay, so before I analyze all of Jondesu's posts, I'm going to gather all the vote tallies and color those who have since been revealed village. One Stick (3): Elenion, Orlok, Paranoid KingSilverblade (1): Aman,Straw (4): Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Lopen, Brightness AscendantParanoid King (1): StickRanduir (1): JondesuHemalurgic Headshot (1): Randuir Two Stick (6): Elenion, Joe, Frozen Mint, Paranoid King, Ornstein, RanduirHemalurgic Headshot (1): StickParanoid King (1): JondesuJoe (2): Lopen, Brightness Radiant Three Ecthelion (5): Elenion, Jondesu, Randuir, Lopen, Brightness AscendantLopen (1): Amanuensis,Paranoid King (2): Hemalurgic Headshot, OrnsteinElenion (1): EchtelionSeonid (1): Frozen MintOrnstein (2): Paranoid King, Joe Four Seonid (2): Elenion, RanduirOrnstein (5): Amanuensis, Jondesu, Hemalurgic Headshot, Joe, Frozen MintJoe (3): Seonid, Lopen, Brightness AscendantAmanuensis (1): Ornstein I don't really see anything analysis worthy by this alone, as the only players who have voted together more than once were Len and Rand, and it looks like a lot of the players still alive have voted with everyone else at least once. Plus every single one of us has voted for a villager at one point, by the looks of it. That being said, now that Jon has made his play, I know he's evil, so I can at least look at who he's voted for, as well as who he hasn't. On C1 he did not participate in either the Stick or Straw lynch. Instead he voted on Rand because he voted for HH instead of Stick, despite his analysis of her. Knowing that he's evil now, I think the reason he didn't get involved there is because he knew both players were villagers, and thus remaining on the sidelines could keep people from looking at him over others. On C2 he was the only player to vote for PK. Again he stays way from the lynch on Stick, which could be him being aware of the results. On C3, however, he joins the bandwagon on Ecth, contradicting the pattern of his two previous votes. I would say there's a decent chance a teammate of his was up for the lynch, or could possibly be swung too, but when he voted, Ecth had already accumulated 3 or 4 votes. On C4, last cycle, he joins the lynch on Ornstein. Considering that Joe and Seonid's alignments are still unknown, and that their votes were a lot closer to Ornstein's then Ecth's was to Len or Seonid the previous turn, it's possible he was trying to run interference for one of them. In said post he specifically mentions Joe, not Seonid, which could either be because Joe is his teammate and he naturally wanted to mention him, or because Seonid is his teammate and he was actively trying not to comment on him. I still think Joe is village, so I'm leaning the second option over the first. But considering that Orlok is vouching that Seonid used Forbiddence last night, I think it's likely neither are his teammates, and he just decided to vote on Ornstein because as he's proven this turn by lying about me, they're right on the precipice of victory. The only real question I have right now is if his vote on Rand C1 was a distancing technique. Alright, so. Onto his posts. Beginning mostly talks about his stance on the plans and the people who've suggested them, which judging by what he said, is non-alignment indicative. However there are a couple things in here that fit the eliminator mindset. For example, he mentions how Artists and Duelists can hard-clear villagers, but then goes on to mention when he expects there to be a conversion. At the end of this post, he ends with it being "best to assume anyone you confirm villager is a likely convert." Normally it's not bad advice, except in this game the conversions are random, so it's not like the Forgotten can explicitly choose who they bring to their side. Having this kind of mindset is only relevant if you're worried about giving information to someone who might turn later, so now seeing Jon as evil, I think this is him trying to prevent the village from developing a trust group. While it's not unlike a villager to discuss the conversions, especially since other players brought it up before, the fact that the largest portion of Jon's first post this game discusses it, I think the Forgotten must have been discussing going for the conversion a lot. Which means they've probably been trying to figure out who the Acid-Specialist is, and that they somehow got that information last turn, judging by the kill on Brightness. Also, his last paragraph here says that he believes voting is important, so he'll get involved in the lynch later. Specifically he says he wants to pay attention to who suggested which plan and who supported them. He calls Len's plan overly complex, here, but doesn't see anything that helps the elims. He does say he's wary of myself, Lopen, and Len as well, two of which I know for a fact are village, so I think he might have been indirectly discredit us. Whether or not that applies to Len as well, I can't say for sure. Usually elims like to throw their allies among a list of villagers to make it difficult to pick out who their teammates are later. He follows this up with a vote on Rand for a reason I mentioned above. Like I said before, I think it's odd he didn't say anything about Straw, Stick or Silverblade, who all turned out to be village, which supports my theory of him trying to avoid the spotlight. Okay, either this was an accidental slip up or Jon was intentionally poking fun at us. He starts this post saying "I knew it was likely to hit a villager of course, but losing a Non-Rithmatist is a little annoying." The player lynch on C1 was Straw, a blackmailer. The Non-Rithmatist was DA, the Forgotten kill. Thing is, this was the very first post of the turn, which makes me think he was anticipating the results, and seeing that they hit such a useful role for the village, was too excited not to comment. Afterwards he responds to Randuir and admits fault in his analysis, as well as he knew his vote wouldn't make a difference (contradicts his first post where he said he knows voting is important. Two completely different mindsets). He also says he wanted to let his thoughts out to be analyzed, which actually makes me trust Randuir more. Rather than a distancing attempt, this makes me think he was trying to make people think he was distancing himself from Rand, in case he ever got killed. He claims he forgot this was a combined cycle.points out that DA was the Non-Rithmatist, and asks if anyone knew or if the kill was random. Since this is a part of the same post I believe that the way he started it was an accidental slip up that he and the rest of us never realized. Overall, this post feels pretty forced to me, in the sort of way that an eliminator would struggle trying to articulate what thoughts they would have if they were village. For example, the main reason he's upset about a Non-Rithmatist dying is because it's one less chance for a player to be hard-cleared. Generally only eliminators would be concerned with that, so this shows us where his mind was, rather than on the fact that we lost someone with the power to buff other villagers. So he reminds us that Lines can't be done twice in a row, so anyone who reveals what they did is giving the eliminators a window to hit them. It's fine enough advice, especially considering the situation, but he then follows it up with him being wary of my analysis (even if it makes sense), particularly where I conclude Lopen is probably a villager. This aligns with my theory that Jon knowing his role and not killing him is not a reason to trust him. Like with Joe in LG31, I think Joe was trying to get on Lopen's good side because at this point I presented a very logical reason for why Lopen wasn't evil, so it would be better for him to get on the pro-Lopen train sooner rather than later. Later on C2 he finally comments on the votes against Straw and Silver. At this point both players are dead, so his defending their level of activity helps no one. It's clear to me he was avoiding commenting on them while they were still alive because he didn't want to derail the lynches. Judging by the players who voted for them (Joe, Lopen, Brightness and myself). I think he was hoping we'd implicate ourselves by remaining uninvolved. Instead of joining the votes on Stick, he urges us to focus on players who have mostly been ignored, and then votes on PK, who since has been killed and revealed village. At this stage in the game I believe his mindset was the obvious that Stick would be the next death, and after that, they'd need someone new to distract us. It nearly worked, too, because in C3 2 more players voted for PK, and Mint even tried to convince Jon to change his vote back to PK from Ecth. He responds to this later, so I'll talk about it when we get there. C3 begins and so far the only players with votes are Joe, Ornstein and Len. Rather than join one, he votes for PK again, saying PK's explanation wasn't good enough. Why he decides to vote for PK over Ornstein, I'm not exactly sure, but it might be a result of him finding out either's role in PMs and preferring to kill an Artist rather than a Sentry. As for why he didn't vote for Joe or Len, both are still alive and candidates for being one of the Forgotten who used a kill or a Line of Vigor. Because of my previous turns analysis, I would guess Len. Here he switches his vote from PK to Ecth because no one shares his suspicion. I find it funny he chooses Ecth over Len, and in this post he even says that if Ecth is village, Len will move up his suspicion list, and yet despite Ecth turning up village, he decides to "use a Line of Making on me?" If he truly believed his opinion would be affected by the results of the lynch, why didn't he follow it up by watching Len? Instead he chose me, who last cycle had said enough to allay even Lopen's concerns about my alignment. That doesn't really make sense at all, especially for a player who knew Lopen's role (and thus that he could be trusted). I'm becoming increasingly convinced that Jon and Len are teammates, so if we lynch Jon today, I think I'd strongly advocate going after Len tomorrow. Like I mentioned before, Mint asked Jon if he would switch his vote back to PK. He says he would, but that doing so would only tie it, which wouldn't be helpful. My theory is at this point the Forgotten had already planned on attacking PK, and while they could probably change the order, it would be better if they just lynched Ecth and took PK out on their own. Last post of the previous turn, before he outright lied about my action. He votes on Ornstein at a point where it's basically guaranteed he'll die, although he does defend Joe in this post, which makes me think he's already planning on accusing me this turn and is setting up a contingency in case his bluff fails. By defending Joe here, it either makes it seem like they're teammates, or that he wants us to think that. As I've already said, I don't suspect Joe, so I believe it's the latter. Now that I've gotten through all of that, I wanted to follow up on Seonid claiming that Len was the second Artist who scanned Lopen. @Elenion, can you confirm this? Since I believe Jon and Len are teammates, I have two theories. Only one of them is an Artist and actually scanned Lopen, and then they both claimed the same role to make it look like there was more of them than there actually were, so that if one got killed and revealed the other wouldn't be suspected while also doubling the chance that a Forgotten got into the trust group. Another possibility is they truly are both Artists, which wouldn't necessarily be unbalanced if their 4th member was a Sentry. Either way, I think they're both teammates. Jon says he scanned Lopen and myself (Non-Rithmatist and Sentry), only C2 and C4 respectively. Len, when did you scan Lopen, and who else have you scanned? In conclusion, I already know that Jon is evil. I don't think they were expecting Orlok to come back for this unless he is evil, too, in which case they'd probably be hoping to sow enough doubt about me to get one villager on their side, since basically everyone left this game is pretty active, minus Mint and HH, to an extent. The fact that I just got ninja'd by Seonid voting for Jon basically confirms they're not teammates, which probably means Orlok is village as well, as if he was evil, I doubt he would claim an action that verified a villager over an eliminator. I know a lot of my analysis here is hinging on Jon being evil, but I don't really know any other way to present it, given he's lied about my action. As for Sart not yet responding I severely doubt that, as I saw him actively reading the thread last night during our back-and-forth. I more so think that Jon is trying to delay the conversation from progressing than genuinely waiting. (C5) Votes: Thus Far (1) Amanuensis: Jondesu, (2) Jondesu: Amanuensis, Seonid,

Hm. I'm should warn everyone now that I might not be consistently active throughout this game, particularly during the middle. It's that time of the year where I transition between countries, and this time I'm heading out a little early to attend training in Quantico, then stopping back home for about a week to see my family for the first time in a couple years, so it won't be as smooth as my last move. I am currently without a phone (might buy one when I'm in the states, but I'm undecided) so playing mobile-y won't be a thing. I'll try to sit down on my laptop for a couple hours every day, but given the circumstances, I can't guarantee it. Main reason I'm signing up despite this is because I'm sure I'll regret missing out on this game again.

Unfortunately no. Only three players have PM'd me this game. PK in the very beginning, where he told me he learned my name was an actual word and not some fancy pronoun, and then said his role fit his character description and asked if mine did too, thinking Sart choose them because of flavor instead odd using RNG. I told him that it could maybe be construed that way but it was a bit of a stretch (Acid-Specialist would have made more sense for me). HH messaged me at the end of C3 / beginning of C4 to inform me that he protected me C2, and that the only player he told was Lopen, who later confirmed it. I replied to the PM although never received a response. Finally, after Lopen revealed himself to be a Non-Rithmatist (and a few people vouched for him / didn't refute it) I sent Lopen a PM with my role and actions in it, then asked him to verify if anyone scanned me. So, as far as I'm aware, Lopen was the only one who knew, though he may have told someone between then and his death. Anyway I have to get ready for work now. Just woke up ~20 minutes ago and wanted to see what I missed / reply quick. Larger analysis post coming later.

So I just got a message about my qualifier for the Mafia Championship. I'll be in Game Ten, which begins on June 5th, so I've got plenty of time to kill until then. I will play the game as Esuan. She's an old woman who's attended the University for a very long time, and despite her intelligence and wisdom, avoids taking any responsibilities. Instead she focused entirely on studying (and yelling at those who interrupt her. Or as stupid questions. Or wear too much perfume), although she does occasionally disappear for inconsistent amounts of time. To where, nobody knows, and those who ask are usually lectured for prying into an elder lady's private business. She is a particularly decrepit thing, frail of body and with wrinkled flesh that's so pale, soft and thin that it looks like someone took a skeleton and draped wet paper over its bones. She's known for living in filth, never finishes a meal, and wears the same mottled gray-brown-yellow robes, often with the hood drawn, every single day. Some Masters claim that she's been wearing that same robe since she first joined the University, and that back then, it was snow white and trimmed with fine lace. Now it's crusty and torn, and smells like the alley behind a pub, although she never drinks.

Guess we're at an impasse then. If anyone can corroborate either Jon's story or mine, please come forward. Otherwise it's going to be his word versus mine. I'm going to bed now, but when I get time tomorrow, I'm going to analyze everything Jon's said and done so far, to hopefully find evidence to credit that I'm telling the truth. It's been over a half hour since this has been brought up, so I'm sure if Sart made a mistake, he would have told Jon already. Goodnight everyone.

Ah, I understand. I'm counter accusing you because I know my alignment and that I used a Line of Warding last night. I don't know your alignment and you're claiming I used a Line of Vigor when I didn't. The logical conclusion from there is you're Forgotten. You knowing my role gives you credit to being an Artist, but not the rest of the information. And considering there's still 9 players left right now and the game is going, for you to be trying to lynch me this way means there's probably four of you, and that the least-active player (I'd guess Orlok) is a villager, and you're banking on no-one being able to refute your claim / that the villagers won't oppose it enough for your team to pull a hammer, if necessary, and win.

When Lopen claimed he said he was scanned by three different players and two of them were Artists. This was after PK died so I asked him if he was one of them, and Lopen said PK wasn't, so there's another out here somewhere.

I want to comment more on this but I need to sleep, so I'll just respond to what's necessary. He did the same for me. I was about to switch my vote to Joe, but he said not to bother unless you retracted yours. Everyone knew. Lopen claimed he was a Non-Rithmatist last turn. You're right that I'm a Sentry, so I'm not surprised if you're truly an Artist, or at least on a team with one. But I did not use a Line of Vigor last night, I warded. Considering that the Acid-Specialist's used their charge, that means I was probably targeted by a Line of Vigor. Now, I mentioned this a turn ago, but you're one of the Artists who scanned Lopen? We know PK was an Artist and Lopen said he didn't scan Lopen, but he also said he was scanned by two Artists total. The village having three Artists seems pretty ridiculous, and I've theorized from the beginning that the Forgotten probably have one, to make their kills more informative. I'm not among the Forgotten, so I can only assume you are, since there's no redirect abilities in this game. Did you confirm with Sart that he didn't mix up the results with another player? He did say a lot of people changed their orders last minute. Otherwise, I'm guessing that the Forgotten have had four members this entire time, as otherwise you wouldn't risk lying like this to get an easy kill. So Jondesu.

Ah. Good point. That would be interesting

The issue is this specifically only really works in real-time games. I think Mafia Universe uses an automated system, though (they have a forum bot that tallies votes, controls who can post in the thread and when, reveals information after death, etc) so they might have roles like that there. Here, with player-only game masters? It'd have to happen when a GM is online so they can announce it immediately. I think a few people have been looking into us doing even quicker fixes on Discord, though. Games that might last about an hour overall, with everyone focusing on the game throughout the whole duration. It could work there. That being said, we've had multiple games with "Ultimate Preservation" that basically makes it so for a 24-hour duration of a player submitting an order, no votes or action orders count, or something to that affect. Similar ideas could work since it doesn't require an immediate announcement / GM intervention

Not only was my boss late, but he wanted to dig through everything. To be completely honest, I could have been on earlier, but I was hungry and offered a free meal, so... yeah. Sorry about not getting on sooner. I was originally going to do analysis of the three players I am most suspicious of, which I think has boiled down to Len, Joe and Rand, but I'm going to settle for those who have votes now, since I can hardly start a lynch on another player at this point. First up is Joe, who I'm mainly suspicious of because so many other people have been saying they're suspicious of him without doing much about it. Joe's first post. Nothing note worthy except that I found it odd he was so adverse to poke voting. My initial thought was that he was a Forgotten or had a powerful Specialization... so I asked him about it. Joe replies to me, starting off with a tangent about him autofollowing the threads, so that just because he receives notifications doesn't mean he pays attention to them all the time. In response to my previous question, says that poke votes irritate him, which is understandable considering how poorly I think of them, too (I usually end up voting for a player who poke voted just to prove a point). Ultimately his response alleviated my initial worry, and now that I know he's a Guardian, I can see him being afraid of being a lynched since he could theoretically be a problem for the Forgotten. That being said, there's no reason why the Forgotten can't have a Guardian themselves, if the Assassin is telling the truth, and there's also the possibility that the Assassin and him are teammates that are lying about the situation to cover each others bases. This post reads village-aligned all the way through, really. The only thing I find a little questionable is the fact that he jokingly requests that the Forgotten don't kill high-profile players, and that's exactly what they've been doing, assuming every successful kill so far has been theirs. A few things like him trying to poke holes in the various plans presented (without casting suspicion on those players, which shows a desire for constructing a better plan) and him being hesitant to vote for anyone on day one makes me think he wasn't particularly eager to kill anyone, which is generally a villager-thing-to-do. He also actively questions players on their votes when there's not enough information to glean from it. Granted, this could all be him pretending since in this same post he mentions good eliminators doing things that hurt their team to seem village, but nothing he really says feels here feels unnatural or forced to me. Oh right. I asked Joe why he didn't comment on me, since the last time he made a post like this in LG31, the opposite of what I said above was prevalent throughout his post, particularly a few comments where it felt like he was buttering me up. It immediately made me suspicious of him that game, and lo and behold he was an eliminator. Could he have learned his lesson since then? Probably. Joe is a clever guy. But I'm usually very good at figuring out when Joe is an eliminator (did it D1 of LG26 too) and I'm not feeling that way at all so far. Also I should note it's at this stage that after prodding from Lopen he decides to vote. His reasoning for voting on Straw is because it might bring evidence of me being evil to the thread, which kind of makes me suspicious since I feel like people have been looking for excuses to lynch me, and whenever that happens I immediately become suspicious of them. But Lopen's been doing the same thing and he's confirmed village, so I'm not sure if I can hold it against Joe. First post he made C2, after DA was killed. Entire thing is focused on trying to figure out who was in contact with him, which initially made me think it was because he was a Forgotten who wanted to frame one of them, but like I said that turn, I feel like this is too blatant for Joe. On the other hand, a villager would want the answers to these questions just as much in case it did lead to a genuine lead... which sadly it didn't, Could see this post going either way. Typical Joe snark. Not really alignment indicative, I don't think, and because of my previous reads of his posts, I trust he's telling the truth here. Votes on Stick mostly because people suspect him of being teammates with her. Not very alignment indicative, and now that we know that Stick was village, his actions are understandable from either side. Nothing I really feel comment worthy, except for the part where he gets tired of defending himself. I can sympathize with that completely because every time I'm village and players make me waste valuable analysis time on trying to argue why I'm innocent - or, at the very least, not suspicious - I get similarly frustrated. See the turn in LG31 where Orlok accused me, if you want a good example. So Joe explains that he's busy, which I respect because a big thing for me is keeping other players informed, and then after Lopen retracts his vote he goes on to say that he should have time later so if Lopen wants to put the vote back, it's fine. At this point in the game I think that a Forgotten would be a lot more concerned about being lynched when he doesn't have the ability to defend himself, so yeah. Leaning village here, too. Makes sure to correct the tally I messed up when I was forced to rush to work. Inherently a good thing as not everyone keeps track of votes and not doing so could lead to an unintended lynch, but it also could be because he's Forgotten and one of his allies was in danger... but considering that Ecth had 5 versus PK's 2 and that both were villagers, I doubt it. He also brings up some things that can be construed as Ecth defenses, and proceeds to vote on Ornstein, who unlike the other players who were close to being lynched the previous turn hasn't been revealed a villager, so that earns him some brownie points in my book, too. It goes without saying that he could have done that on purpose being a Forgotten who knew their alignments, Ultimately he doesn't even try to move the lynch though, just votes on Ornstein because he wants him to participate more, which I understand. His theory here on Ornstein seems plausible, and given what Ornstein did earlier this cycle, I'm starting to feel unwell about him as well. So after all this, an Assassin tries to kill Joe and he survives. Asks to be lynched, which everytime I've seen it followed through with or followed through myself, the player's ended up village. Granted this has happened enough times that an eliminator might start doing it to bluff, which Joe has played enough to realize and is bold enough to try, but considering everything else, I think it's genuine. That and the fact that he's a Guardian who's been protecting himself on odd cycles makes me think he might have been playing with the same mindset as myself. High-profile player, rolled village, likely to be attacked early, so it's better to self-protect into the second cycle so that we have 96-hours of analysis to work with, rather than risk trying to survive for 164 when it could be cut short at 48. Granted the decision was made on a coin flip, but I think even if I landed heads I would called it a test run to try again, because I honestly expected to die C1 after all the work I put into the game. Finally, Joe's last post. He wants me dead but I can't really argue with much else. I don't understand what he means by Ornstein link, though? As for Seonid, I don't have much more to add than I've said about him already, although I will respond to his last post a bit. I feel like he's being sarcastic here, which automatically makes me feel adverse towards this post, but I think that might be a pride thing rather than legitimate suspicion. I can't really argue with the faults he brought up in my theory. Plus the fact that he's agreed he seems very suspicious and that he offers us to lynch him... I'm going to go on a leap of faith here and trust he's village. He later changes his mind because he "knows he's village" and votes on Joe to make a tie, and considering that after looking through all of Joe's posts again and reading them mostly village, I could see this as a Forgotten realizing his bluff failed and deciding voting for a village Guardian to hopefully get him lynched instead... but I don't know. Like Joe, I feel less strongly about him than I do Ornstein. Just a second ago I got ninja'd by Lopen saying he doesn't understand the lynch on Ornstein, which I can see from his perspective, maybe. But the thing is I know I'm village. I also know that in games I'm village, my name and reputation gets mentioned, on average, more than other players. Given how new of a player he is, and how "spur of the moment" his play style is, I could very well see him being a Forgotten who's been listening to his teammates talk about how dangerous I am and how they want me dead, so the moment he sees a confirmed villager vote for me, he jumps on it quickly, as if he's been waiting for the opportunity all game. Plus, generally GMs like to put one newer player on an eliminator team, that way they can get to know players better and learn more about the game and tactics. That and with him being a new player means that he was the least likely to be checked by an Artist or by a mundane Line of Making. Which means that Ornstein would likely be the one making the kills, and he was also the player who voted on PK last turn when Mint started asking if anyone wanted to save Ecth by voting for PK. This makes me wonder if the kill on PK was a last minute decision. Ultimately I've decided to vote for Ornstein. After rereading Joe's posts and analyzing him I honestly don't think he's evil. Between Seonid and Ornstein, I'm more suspicious of the latter, although I understand why other people might not feel the same since they don't know I'm telling the truth about my alignment. I'm sorry, Lopen. I know this isn't what you want, but I legitimately think you're wrong about Joe.

It was supposed to start 27 minutes ago but my boss is running late >> and yeah, I honestly thought I had a "EUREKA!" moment when I first developed the theory. It all made a ton of sense to me and I was happy that I figured it out when I did, because I thought it would get our first Forgotten killed. At this point, it's obvious the kill on DA was the Forgotten as otherwise the Assassin would tell someone, so likely whoever claimed Assassin to Lopen is the real one, unless there were just no Assassins to begin with this game (due to there being 2+ Non-Rithmatist roles).

It wasn't a conclusion. It was a theory that at the time I believe made a lot more sense than the Forgotten killing DA. Some vigilantes start the game off killing, and not everyone has a logical reason for it (bases it on gut, like PK in MR13) or does it just to be a troll (not going to mention names, but I think you know who I'm referring to). Also I don't believe I said that SB was attacked by an Assassin. I was asking why they didn't attack me that turn instead, as they would have known I was vulnerable. As for the others who used Forbiddence, it really depends on who they are, but I am very frequently attacked early by elims, as is Lopen and Orlok, so whenever I live this long I begin to question why. It's the 4th option but I do not agree that it's a logical extreme. It was a reasonable theory at the time but is no longer likely. I didn't say no one brought it up in PMs. I said I doubted it since no one had said something like "hey maybe one of these kills isn't the Forgotten." But yeah. Wish me luck on my inspection. I'll analyze the players I'm most suspicious of after.

I've been getting all of my detachments equipment ready for a semi-annual inspection, so I haven't been able to focus on this game like I wanted this evening. I don't know if I'll get a post up tonight because the inspection itself is early tomorrow, but after I'm done with it I'm going to make the game my top priority, because we need to figure this out.

PRAISE THE MASTER! I WAS IN THE PROCESS OF POSTING THIS WHEN MY INTERNET CUT OFF AND I THOUGHT I HAD LOST IT FOREVER. SO GLAD I DON'T HAVE TO REDO THIS! Yeah, I don't really suspect Brightness, so that's fine. I've read Mint's posts a couple times and I don't think there's enough there to substantiate trust, but I can't say anything about PMs. I was a little suspicious of HH when I thought Stick might be evil, but I think I'm leaning village for him as well, now. I feel the same about Jondesu, Orlok and Rand that I do Mint. I'm going to probably have to go over all of their posts thoroughly before I take any firm stances, but the main problem with them is I need more to accurately read them. I'm actually becoming increasingly suspicious of Len, especially after what happened with Ecth last turn. Seonid I've been wondering about for a while now, and I've actually got a theory regarding him that I'll talk about in a minute. Ornstein I'm very suspicious of now because of his vote on me. If he was Forgotten then he'd very likely be hearing my name and how dangerous I am mentioned several times now, to the point that if he saw a player most people are reading village on voting for me, he'd be eager to join in on. Can you point out what it is about the tone of my posts that you think are suspicious. And yeah, what's the problem with that? I seriously don't think you'd openly declare that you knew DA's role the same turn that you kill him. I really don't believe that's the type of ploy you'd think of naturally, nor do I think you'd have slipped up by telling us when you didn't mean to. Of all the people saying they think you're village for any other reason, how does logic rub you the wrong way? And okay. I was more suspicious of Stick than Joe. My intention was not to draw attention away from him, but to lynch the player I thought there was actual evidence of being evil. Joe hadn't really done anything at that point of the game. Stick, however, had been saved on four separate occasions from the lynch, by four different people. I honestly believed her and one of those who saved her could be evil. I was wrong, just like you were wrong about Ecth. Couldn't the same thing be said about the players who voted on Ecth drawing attention away from Ornstein or Seonid? That bit about teammates is what I'm trying to say. If an Assassin kill is indistinguishable from a Forgotten kill, and no one is alerted when someone is protected by a Line of Forbiddence, it really wouldn't be difficult to have one Forgotten claim Assassin and the other claim self-protection. Which is why I'm just advising you to have one of your Artist contacts scan them or at least use a Line of Making on them when they're supposed to kill to make sure they're actually using Vigor. I would have, but for whatever reason no one has really PM'd me this game Alright, fair enough. I wasn't able to be very active myself, so I understand where you're coming from. Which is why I suggest players try to do what I do when I'm active: constantly ping / quote people and ask them specific questions to get the dialogue going. Some people get distracted by other threads and such, so it's important to keep them constantly looking at this one, and that when they do, they have something important to respond to. I really wish I knew that sooner. I wouldn't have wasted my time questioning you if I knew you were a Non-Rithmatist. I'll probably PM you my role shortly, as well as the actions I've taken so far, that way if anyone has used a Line of Making on me and wants to come forward to you to confirm that what I say is true, you'll at least have that to consider. That being said, I think you should be suspicious of one of those players, because considering you're village, I would expect the Forgotten to scan you earlier rather than later, particularly if they're an Artist. Was PK one of them? Only one Forgotten needs to put in a kill, and to be honest, it probably isn't someone who's been active or considered particularly threatening. That's another reason why I'm suspicious of Ornstein. Has anyone used a Line of Making on him? So yeah, basically my theory right now is one of the players who scanned Lopen is a Forgotten. I explained C1 or C2 to you why Lopen was a high priority scan from either alignment, although I do wonder why the Forgotten haven't attacked him knowing he's a confirmed village-role. Given Seonid specifically tried to cast suspicion on him could mean that was the Forgotten's plan, but then it got derailed by village scanner confirming he had no Specialization and Sart's clarification than Non-Rithmatists and Acid-Specialists are guaranteed good.

I kind of disagree, but it depends a lot on when you got the claim. If it was before Sart revealed that no one is alerted when a Line of Forbiddence saves a player from a kill, then I wouldn't doubt they're honest, but after? It might be worth the risk if it gets them in your good graces for a little while, at least. Okay, I understand what you meant by that now. I mean, that's fair that you were saying that since the beginning but that doesn't really alleviate any worries for me. There's no reason why a Forgotten wouldn't defend a villager, especially if they voted for that player's opposition, as it adds reasoning for them killing the other and, as Stick herself pointed out, makes her a clear target for the C2 lynch while also giving you the power to argue it and say I told you so after. In my honest opinion, nothing Ecth did this game was specifically what he does as an eliminator He pretty much behaves the same way no matter what his alignment is. Like you are with Stick, I'm good at reading Ecth's tone and, I'm pretty sure, have accurately pinned his alignment in every game we've played together so far. Although a lot of the reason I think he was innocent had little to do with that. It was the circumstances. Votes were going all over the place and none were being latched onto, and then one vote on Ecth pops up and suddenly a ton accumulate. That on top of the fact that he had so little content in this game, I think it was joined by the Forgotten because it would continue to deprive us of information, which seems to be a reoccurring theme if you look at their kills so far. Can you start off by explaining why you trust the players you do? I remember seeing a long list of names last turn and about half of those players I've seen even less evidence of being innocent compared to me. I disagree with me being consistently wrong with my suspicions, too. Most of my suspicions are still alive (given I'm basically suspicious of everyone). The only player I really have reason to believe is innocent is you right now, and that's hinging on DA being the Forgotten kill. Anyway, back to my original point of this paragraph. You say process of elimination makes you suspicious of me, but where's the work? Without me being able to see what lead you to believe it I can hardly defend myself, and the fact of the matter is I know you're wrong, no matter what's lead you to believe it. Honestly I think we need to relook those stats because I feel like there's been plenty of games where we were both village. One or the other being evil might have been more accurate towards the beginning of our time here, but it is more than a little frustrating when the only reason you suspect me is because you're "not evil." Especially at this stage in the game, we can't afford this bickering if we're both innocent. I mean, okay, but telling you your action doesn't really discount them being Forgotten. They have teammates to share information and abilities with, and it's not like eliminators don't lie about what they specifically do. The best way to prove it would be if there were two kills at the same time someone Maked them using Vigor. Honestly, the fact that the Assassin failed to kill Joe and Joe revealed himself as a Guardian could just be a ploy. But I'm not aware of this player's identity or what's been said in PMs, exactly, so I just have what has happened in thread to go off of. Did you have anyone watch the Assassin to see if they really were doing what they were doing? I'm sorry you were frustrated. Maybe if I was more active last cycle something could have changed. Just try to remember it's only a game, yeah? No need to be in a bad mood about it. I need to go eat lunch, but when I get back I'm going to give my thoughts on every player currently alive, because at this point lynching another villager will probably cost us the game. I'll try to be back within the hour. EDIT: Oh, and if anyone has used a Line of Making on me so far this game, can you tell that information to someone.

How wonderfully helpful.

Can you give us a reason why?

Just posting to say that I want to play, but with the Mafia Championship coming up, I don't think that I can keep up with this. I'm still thinking about it, because the GMs want / need the numbers, and that it seems like it'll be a lot of fun. But yeah, I dunno.

I agree that 2 Assassins is unlikely, so if your contact is telling the truth, then DA would have to be the Forgotten kill. You seem to discount the Assassin lying about their role so I'll move forward assuming that you have evidence of the fact. I'm confused though. Why are you mentioning Stick is a villager in this post? I have played enough games to realize that when a player accrues several votes with minimal opposition that something is fishy. I disagree that anyone had good reason to lynch Ecth, just like you disagree with anyone having good reason to lynch Stick. We both took the wrong stances on villagers. Can you explain to me what makes your situation any more innocent than mine? We're reaching that stage in the game where Orlok talked about the game becoming unwinnable without us killing a Forgotten. I mentioned Ecth probably being village because I suspected if it didn't change, we might be too late. And sorry, Lopen, but I wasn't looking for a way to change my opinion of you. My initial opinion was entirely based on the fact that DA was killed by the Forgotten. Nothing you've said or done so far looked particularly villagery to me, so with Sart's clarification proving that there's no real way we can know what kill belongs to who, I realized it was possible that I was attacked C1 and that the Forgotten were happy to let us believe DA's death was on them. The main thing I've been trying to figure out is if I was attacked C1, why wasn't I attacked C2. Earlier this turn a player messaged me saying that they protected me C2 and that they told one other player to make sure their action was accounted for. Can you confirm whether or not this is true, Lopen? I seriously don't understand your reasoning here, man. What makes Joe or I absolutely have to be Forgotten? Because Joe survived an Assassination attempt? Not alignment indicative, at least in a game where any Rithmatist can protect themselves. Because I don't have the exact same opinions or information as you? Neither of us are infallible, this game highlighting that fact perfectly. I by no means am confident that anyone is a Forgotten. Not even you, particularly if the DA kill wasn't an Assassin. But seriously. How else do you expect me to react when you keep trying to make me out as suspicious when I seriously don't believe I've done anything but good? If any other player were to do that to you when you're a villager, wouldn't that make you at least wonder about them? I seriously feel like we do this to each other every game we play together. For one reason or another we never trust each other or expect the other to be playing us. I feel like this exact scenario happened in the mid-game of QF21, and didn't we both end up village there, too? One thing I'm having trouble understanding is why you haven't even PM'd me. You at least always do that much, but you haven't even bothered this game. Try to imagine that from my perspective. Personally, I would feel a lot more comfortable if someone else could verify that DA was not killed by an Assassin before I return to my initial opinion of Lopen. I don't like it when anyone accuses me of being evil when I'm not, especially when they say they're confident about it. If I completely believed that Lopen was evil and that my being lynched would prove it, I would happily vote for myself, but with 6 villagers dead and likely 1 more dying to the Forgotten tonight, I don't think we can afford an 8th casualty.