Amanuensis

Well I'm back from my trip to Machu Pichu, so you can expect the finale soon. I'm hoping I can finish it tonight, but I don't want to make a promise I can't keep. It is my top priority right now though, just need to take care of a few things for work first. That being said, I am signing up as Mykal. I hope I will get the opportunity to roleplay because I have plans for this character, but I don't want to delay LG30's write up any longer than I have already. Likewise I'm not going to be as active as I usually am until it's up. Edited this just to say good luck everyone, and that I hope you all have fun. Editing this one more time to provide some information on my character. Mykal is a kandra that's been hired by Lady Elosa Renaud, who is the actual person invited by Lord Tekiel for the test. What that means is for the intents and purposes of this game, Elosa should be the character who gets voted on (if you do it via roleplay) and interacted with on a mechanical level (also she would be the one who dies, not Mykal. I've got plans for him beyond this game and thus cannot risk him dying). The reason I am signing up as Mykal instead of Elosa is mostly from a roleplay stand point, as I will be telling her story through the "man" pretending to be her fiance. It hasn't been mentioned whether invitees can bring a plus one, but whether its allowed or not, Lady Elosa is determined enough to make it happen (she usually ends up getting her way).

I find myself wading in a sea of mist so thick that when I raise my hand to my face, I can barely tell it’s in front of me. It takes a minute for me to notice the difference - maybe because my eyes need time to adjust, or perhaps because I’m having trouble manifesting a form in this place - but I can see it now. A faint outline silhouettes my fingers and my palm, a shade or two darker than the infinite expanse of gray vapor that permeates this realm. It’s as if, in this place, I am little more than a summer mirage. I cannot affect it, but my presence obscures it somehow. Curious, I swipe my hand through the mist before me, fast at first, although the impression I leave is fleeting. Clenching my fist, I leave it hanging for a minute. Two. When I pull it back, a small dot remains. Not black, but close enough to it. Slowly, I trace a symbol with the dot at its center. A column with two concave sides. Four lines extending from it to make a cross in the foreground. But before I can add the circles to their ends, the dot begins to fade. Without further consideration, I drop my hand and step through the unfinished aon. It’s not natural that I’ve come here. Not alive, at least. My time is short, and I was not sent here for experiments. I’m here to explore. I take a step further into the haze, towards one of the tiny white spheres burning in the distance. It’s a strange sensation, walking on nothing. You’d think it would feel like flying, but it seems my spirit prefers the familiar sensations to the unknown. Time passes, and yet the white spheres only get marginally bigger. I’m not sure how long I've been here exactly, but its felt like an eternity. Out of habit, I reach into the hem of my cloak. Rather than grasping my pocket clock, my hand passes straight through my chest. Of course. While my spirit may be here temporarily, my body remains in Roshar. As soon as I think of that place, I feel something grab me from behind. Already? I ask myself. But I just got here. Glancing backwards, I see an orb of light rapidly expanding. It’s blinding to look at, but once the orb and my eyes align, it becomes impossible to flinch away. Whatever’s happening, my vision burns. I hear nothing, but my ears are bleeding. I am not meant to be here. I know that, and so does this place. The speed at which I’m ripped out of the Beyond, it’s no surprise that I feel like my skin is peeling from my bones, that I feel like my bones are turning to dust. Clenching my jaw while I fight the urge to scream, I wonder. What does It think when It looks at me? Do I seem a perverse voyeur, or a ruthless invader? Does It see me the way the world does, or the way I see myself? Is It disgusted by me? Araid of what I’m capable of? Or does It see the truth? Does it pity me? I awaken in my “bedchamber” with a start. As I raise myself from the slab on which I lay, I stare at the skylight above me. The first moon, Salas, peeks over the edge of the frame. Its violet light shines through the jagged ridges that make the crystal into a mural, casting shadows of disparate brightness across the stark, obsidian walls. I keep no possessions here. Anything that I value is too important to have near them. They might be my employers now, but that didn’t mean I trusted them. Anyone who hides things from me should expect me to hide things too. My stomach does not growl, but I sense that I am hungry. Stepping towards the door, I nearly forget my cloak, turning only as I notice that my hand is uncovered. My skin is the same color as the walls, the same texture. Black as night and hard as stone. Cracks mar the back of my hand, forming webs that lengthen as they run up my arm. If I looked any farther, I’d find the imperfections all over my body. If I owned a mirror, I’d see my disfigured face. Without another thought, I fetch my cloak and slip it over my head, making sure my fabrial clock is still in the chest pocket, and that my Soulcaster is still in the pouch at my hip. I check the time; 673d. I haven’t been asleep this long since… well. Since I left home. Retrieving my Soulcaster from the pouch, I check the stones before I slip it on. One ruby, bright and smooth like a tear of frozen lava. One emerald, so dim and dark that it resembles a jade. One heliodor, slightly cracked and leaking yellow light. Too many orders and not enough storms have the most important foci broken and drained. Judging by their luminescence, I could maybe feed the Ghostbloods for another three days. If they wanted any more after that, they’d either start hunting or begin chanting the Stormfather’s name. The rings on my Soulcaster are thicker than most, the chains longer, broader. Through my eyes my hand seems normal, but to the others, I’m practically a giant. I was already tall before my transformation, but the extra thickness of my skin made me more looming. A blessing and a curse, as though it kept the others from disturbing my sleep, or my work, I was also sluggish. I could run practically forever, but not that fast, and it annoyed me more often than not how many times I had to duck my head underneath a doorway. I wander down the empty halls of my Soulcast warehouse, left hand concealed by a fold around my waist, right hand clenching my pocket clock before me. By the time I reached the “kitchen” eleven minutes had past. In sixteen more, my work shall begin. A mortar like bowl as big as my head sits at the center of the room, filled to the brim with piles of rocks. I grasp the largest stone I can find and hold it before me with my left hand, the one equipped with my Soulcaster, before I tap the yellow crystal to expend some of its light. A flash erupts from the palm of my hand, then quickly fades, revealing a hunk of dry meat where the stone used to be. Idly, I wonder. If I had an infused garnet, could I Cast the meat bloody? Not bothering to cook the meat, I depart the “kitchen” and take a left. My teeth, like my eyes and my skin, are hard and crystalline. They tear the Soulcast flesh with ease. It tastes horrific, but I’m used to it. This part of Roshar? I wouldn’t find much better, anyway. Before I can reach the storeroom, I hear a slam come from the front entrance. Leaving the hunk of meat in my mouth, I check the time. 696d. A bit early for my assistant to be in a rush, isn’t it? That’s never a good sign. “Caster!” Bartimaeus hollers as he skids past a corner, his shoulder colliding with the wall. “We have to run! Flee!” I raise my eyebrow, not that I have any hair on my body, or that my assistant could see the motion with a hood drawn over my head. His eyes are locked on the hunk of uncooked meat dangling out of my mouth, which I clearly slurp and swallow whole. After a pair of coughs to loosen my gullet, I speak for the first time since I woke up, my voice a slow rumble. “Run?” I ask, then cough again. “What do you think I’m made of?” Bartimaeus looks at me incredulously. Of course. He’s too new to this job. To me. The boy just doesn’t understand. He’s panting hard, and his eyes are pleading. Almost looks like a puppy, but not that local axe-kind. “What’s got you so frightened? Is a Highstorm blowing the wrong way?” My assistant tries to speak, but chokes. Sighing gravely, I wait for him to calm down. “The other Ghostbloods,” he starts, then tries to catch his breath. “They’re mad at us,” he added, then after another pause, “I think they want to kill me.” I don’t even react, just stare at him with my diamondesque eyes. For a long, drawn at moment we remain there, staring at each other awkwardly. Him clenching his chest, struggling to breathe. Me as still as a statue, my hands hidden behind my back. He must be joking… and yet he’s not. “What did you do?” I didn’t have to curse or raise my voice to express my anger. If anything, it was how quiet and cold I said it that made the boy panic. “Well, I, uh. It all started when that windbag Brandir started talking. You know how you say the man rides on the coattails of his uncle, acting like Eshu, speaking of things he does not understand in front of those who do.” Another moment. More awkward silence. “Go on.” Bartimaeus gulps. “Well, uh. Everyone’s been talking about those Sons of Honor. How our leader has warned us that traitors might be among us. So I thought about what you said about Brandir. Thought, hey, he's basically the fakest person in town. If anyone was a traitor, why couldn’t it be him?” I can see where this conversation was going. Instead of waiting around to listen, I push the boy aside and begin walking towards the front entrance. He yelps at the sudden contact and hesitates for a moment before following me. “If you expect me to diffuse an angry mob that you brought to my doorstep, I’m going to need to know everything. What happened next?” Bartimaeus sniffs, his feet dragging on the floor as he trails behind me like a shadow. “Well, I was already upset from something that bard said to me earlier… he called me a scoundrel and accused me of trying to impersonate him because of my name. I guess I kinda took it out on Brandir, which drew the attention of the others… and… and…” Sigh. I throw the front door open and step out into the field. Perhaps field is not the best word for it, as like most of the territories this close to the Frostlands, the land is ragged, and sparse. Anywhere you look there's more rocks then there are plants, even when they aren't busy hibernating underground. Besides the vague shapes approaching from the outskirts of Notemos, there are barely any signs of life out here. "...and?" I ask him with a sharp glare. Bartimaeus is nervous. Sweating, judging by his glistening brow. Growing impatient, I reach for my hood to pull it down and show him just how unamused I am, but it proves to be unnecessary as the threat alone scares the words right out of him. "And, well, they asked me what I was doing there, so I told them that it was none of their business. They must have misheard me, because I may have mumbled… so they thought I said I was there for business. I don’t know why that matters, but suddenly Brandir is accusing me of being a Son of Honor. So I, kinda, sorta, maybe told them we were working together, hoping your reputation would account for something, but that only ended up drawing more attention. Next thing I know a couple of the others start freaking out on me. Mestow and Thorot took Brandir's side and started asking questions. When I didn’t answer them, they began yelling and tried to grab me. I only managed to get away from them because Brandir was already drunk, and the other two were working patrols. Before I disappeared, they shouted that they'd come find me for answers." "Well if they want answers, then they better hurry," I reply with a sigh. Once again, my bumbling assistant has put me into a bothersome predicament. At this point, my only hope is that no more than an hour of my time is wasted. You'd think that someone my age would care less about something like that, but I don't. Ah well. I have no one to blame but myself. It was me who decided to try turning my workplace into an orphanage, after all. I place my hand on my assistant's shoulder and he flinches. When I speak, I smooth out my voice. "Don't beat yourself up too hard, Bart. You're new to the Ghostbloods, to their dynamic. You just need to consider your words more. To pay more attention to what you say. I don't blame you. Brandir Sebarial is one of the Ten Fools, if not all of them. I would have challenged him too, if I was in your shoes." As hard as I try to cheer him up, Bartimaeus doesn't seem any better. He's quivering in his boots, though that might just be because he's cold. I know it's technically winter, even if I can't feel it. Temperature barely affects me, given my condition, though now that I've remembered, I notice my breath is turning into fog. "Go inside and begin prepping the materials. I'll take care of our coworkers." Bartimaeus doesn't answer, though after a short delay, he departs. Taking a deep breath, I return my gaze to the approaching shadows and straighten my back. "Lo!" I shout into the night. "Who goes there?"

Well, that's not a specific tell for you, since it's a relatively normal thing for newish players to do when they're eliminators. Any potential tells you do have I'm going to keep to myself for now, since I need to see how you behave in more games in order to establish a pattern. Plus, I wouldn't want to tip you off if it's something I can use to catch you later on. Also, @OrlokTsubodai, I wanted to respond to your last post during the night but I couldn't get on in time to do it. I just want to say that you really shouldn't feel embarrassed or angry at yourself because of the lynch on HH. When I looked over his posts, there were a few things that I acknowledged could point to him being an eliminator, so it's not like it was unfounded. At the end of the day, we are all human, which means we make mistakes, and it's important to remember that Sanderson Elimination is just a game. No one should be walking away from here with bad feelings, only good ones. For the record, I was also very impressed with your participation this game, as well as your analysis of Wilson in AG3. I was so happy that someone finally scrutinized her, I practically woke up my neighbor because I was cheering so loud. It was a shame that people didn't follow the lead, but if they did, you would have very likely had saved the village that game. I'm probably getting off track here, but I just wanted to illustrate that you're better than you give yourself credit for, and that you should be proud. Back to this game, though, your effort to generate more discussion was phenomenal. It was very nice having another player I could rely on to do that, because my level of activity does become exhausting quick. I try not to slack off when I play these games because I really do feel strongly about that sense of responsibility that I mentioned a turn or two ago, but it feels great when I know that someone else is capable of stepping up to the plate when I'm craving a break, or just some time to myself. So thank you, and everyone else who remained active this game. 2 players out of 17 being completely inactive and only 1 true lurker is pretty dang good in my book.

Finally read the write up. Great job @Elbereth!

I'm on mobile forced to work the bar at a going away party at my house, so I'm not exactly able to check much... That being said, woo. Jon killed Ecth, Arinian killed Joe and Bart killed Len. Nicely done. Fights the urge not to say my top three suspicions this game were right. Proceeds to do it anyway in italics.

Well then. I got a GM PM from Darkness and expected death. Not victory. That was short lived. Can someone explain to me who killed who?

Stick wrote it in herself. In retrospect, I think that she probably shouldn't have. I'm assuming that the GMs will say that the title of the PM doesn't prove anything, which they should, but I still heavily doubt Stick would have done that if she was Ruin.

Luck! I'll read your post in a minute. Sadly I'm in the middle of something else.

I saw that, and stand by my statement but I'll keep in mind that you misread what I asked

Good to know, if only because it's nice to be aware of other player's situations, so we can be more accommodating. But yeah, I'm not too concerned about that, as it's not really a good reason to explicitly suspect a player, but it's good to keep it in mind when looking at other details. Honestly I'm not terribly suspicious of you, however, there is a potential for you to be a Skaa, especially if Len turns out to be one. Unfortunately, due to work, I haven't even been able to start my second analysis post, and it looks like I'm going to have to stay past opening this morning, therefore I'm not sure if I'll be able to hit all four analysis posts like I wanted. As a result, I looked through Jondesu's posts and decided that he seems genuine enough. There's a few things that didn't sit 100% right for me, such as his opinion of Ecth before he died (can be found in his analysis post on N1), but I'll take a leap of faith now. One thing I feel I should ask, however, is people's opinion on his reveal of being a kandra. @Elenion, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, @A Joe in the Bush, @OrlokTsubodai: are you more suspicious of Jon or less, given the fact that he took this long to reveal being a kandra? Do you count it as a point for him that he admitted it when I brought up the deaths of Rand and Mage? Or do you see that as a strike against him? Furthermore, do you think that the Skaa began the game with a kandra? If so, can you order them for me from the one you're most suspicious of to the least? Thank you. If I can't get two more analysis posts done, I think I'll do Len's before I do Joe's, because with Len I feel there's more evidence against him. I feel that if Joe was a Skaa he would have tried to capitalize a little bit more on the back-and-forth between Orlok and I, which I can see both Len and Arin doing subtly (Len saying absolutely one of us had to be evil, which I asked about and he ignored, and Arin saying that if HH is a Noble, the Coinshot can kill Orlok tonight, which I think is unnecessary as plenty of villagers begin mislynches on their own). Right now, barring further responses and analysis, I would suggest Len be killed tonight or lynched tomorrow. If he's a Skaa, I would look into removing Arin shortly after, and if Arin proves a false lead, then I'd guess the final Skaa would be Joe, Jon or Stick. Unfortunately I need more information to narrow that down any further.

ARINIAN Arinian's first post was the 25th in the game, approximately 17 hours after the write up was posted. The only thing he really comments on is Orlok's vote on Len (which occurred 16 posts earlier / nearly twelve hours before Arinian's post) due to Len's suggestion of a strict contribution crusade. Arinian agrees with Orlok's perspective on the Contribution Crusade, but says that many players advocate lynching inactives / utilize poke votes on the first day of most games, so he doesn't think it says anything about Len's alignment. My first thought when looking at this post is how odd the timing is. Why did it take so long for Arinian to post it, considering that it only addressed one post of 24? To be fair, it's not like I haven't gone a long time without checking a LG, depending on how I feel or what I'm doing, however 17 hours is a lot of time, considering that the average person sleeps for 6 and work for 8. It depends a lot on his time zone and his life style, but it's possible Arinian could have been distracted with a doc. It's also possible that this was an indirect defense for Elenion, or perhaps another player who was acting similar, in addition to a specific distancing attempt with Orlok. Conspiracy theories aside, my read of tone this post is genuine. I could see Arinian just trying to be a reasonable Noble, especially since I also was of the opinion that the vote on Len, then, was unnecessary. Arinian's second and third posts purely RP. His fourth post was the first time he participated in any discussion since his first (16 hours later), and it came only after I pinged every player in the game asking their opinions on Phattemer and those who were voting for him. He said he usually doubts suspicious actions mean a player is evil, so that while Phatt said a couple things that sound suspicious, he's seen similar mistakes from other players. He references the Spy game when I lynched Stick alongside him because I thought it was weird that she voted on an eliminator the same turn he died of inactivity (spoiler alert: Stick wasn't an eliminator) but he voted on Phatt because he had no other leads. Also said he was suspicious of Stick (but he always says that). While I'm always happy to see players RP, 16 hours, again, is a long time not to say anything relevant to the game. This suggests he is consistently holding back thoughts, which more often than not, is alignment indicative. That is one of the three contributing factors that led me to believe Ecth was a Skaa, after all, and after seeing how active Arinian was in my game as a villager, it's easy to notice a difference. I will talk more about this later, however, because I bring it up in thread at one point, and he responds. That being said, in the Spy game that he mentions, he was a villager as well and, for most of the game, willing to follow my lead on things. He ended up turning against me in the end, but fortunately a coin flip landed in mine (and the villages) favor, so we still won. That, at least, is consistent with his play style. However, it is important to note that Arinian was the Sixth vote on Phatt, only 12 minutes after Headshot placed the Fifth. This puts him at the very edge of the "bandwagon zone" so it's possible Ecth told him to cement the village's decision by agreeing with me. Arinian's fifth post was him responding of a question Orlok asked him. Specifically, why he was suspicious of Stick (for not being suspicious). Arinian explains that every game before this one, he has found Stick suspicious off that bat, but for some reason he didn't now. In those games, Stick was also a villager, so he thinks it's possible the difference in his impression is due to her changing alignments. That, however, has changed since his initial comments on Stick, as recently she's made posts that have given him the same feeling he's had before. Ultimately he explains that he decided to vote for Phatt because he has had barely any interactions with him in the past. so he does not know if the suspicion he reads from Phatt's comments are usual to him, like with Stick. No new information here, really. I was going to suggest the possibility that his change in his read of Stick as because he's an eliminator this game, but because he says in the same post that the old feeling about Stick is back, it doesn't make much sense for him to reconsider his opinions of her. Unless he was afraid of Orlok making a larger deal about it (which I doubt, considering how little focus Orlok put on it), I believe this may point to him being a Noble, as why would a Skaa openly reevaluate their opinion of another player without the presentation of new evidence or a defense? Arinian's sixth post is nearly 18 hours after N1 begins. He responds to a player analysis post by Jondesu, in which he questions Arinian's suspicions of Stick and says he's slightly leaning towards Arinian being evil. He tries to thoroughly explain his thoughts on Stick by referencing AG3 and LG30, where Rae was considered suspicious on both games and yet was a villager. In the same post he also responds to my own mention of him in my large analysis post that night, in which I point out how less invovled he is compared to LG30, which made me debate whether or not he's holding back or building up. He says if I look back at other games he's been in, he's never been more active in those than he is in this one now, which is fair. That matches our interactions in QF21 (the Spy game) and what little I remember of AG3 and LG28. As for LG30, he says it was an exception because he wanted to try a different play style, but due to the events of that game (he was ruled out as suspicious by his fellow villagers) he was frustrated that his additional efforts only met him with more resistance, and his inevitable death. In this game he says he doesn't have many suspicious or any evidence to provide. He does, however, say he's got bad gut reads on three players. Rand, Mage and Silver. At the start of the next turn, we found out that Rand and Mage are both villagers. I also now have reason to believe that Silver is a Noble, as I would hope that being a Skaa would encourage him to, at the very least, continue placing actions. That makes a total of three Nobles that Arinian has bad gut reads on, which could indicate that he's a Skaa. On the other hand, the fact that he said this and both Rand and Mage were killed could mean that the Skaa were trying to frame him. I could see this going either way. Arinian's seventh post was 17 hours after D2 was post, and its a follow up to Drought's post about why I was still alive, as well as a response to me asking if he was Kelsier, and some more thoughts on the players. He points out that the reasons Drought listed regarding me aren't the only possibilities, but that he thinks it's a waste of time to talk about. He also comments on from what he's seen, lynching inactives barely ends up helping the village in the end, as it inevitably prevents them from gaining much information, and thus allows the eliminators more time to further their goals. He says that regardless of his alignment, Drought's activity doesn't change very much so he can't determine anything through that, but he does point out that his ideas are not helpful. In response to me he denies being Kelsier, as I expect anyone would. As for his thoughts on the remaining players, he remains suspicious of Stick but decides to ignore her, and replaces Rand, Mage and Silver with Joe, Orlok and maybe Drought. Joe because of him revealing to be a kandra, Orlok because he asked a lot of questions, which could be a way for an eliminator to disguise intent, as well as the fact no one seemed to be doubting him despite him pushing the lynch onto HH, who Arinian determined to be an easy target, and a bad gut read. The reasons for Drought were mentioned earlier, but he also expresses paranoia about the lurkers, Bart and Straw, as well as a bad gut read on Jon. Honestly, I'm a little put off that Arinian did not want to "waste time" trying to figure out why I was still alive. Considering the fact that in AG3, Wilson pulled off a WGG on Night One and was never looked at again (the eliminators ended up winning partly because of it) I think he's underestimating what can be learned discussing things like that. Regardless, I do agree with his stance on lynching inactives, especially in retrospect. Besides Len and myself, he's basically cast doubt on every single player at this point, which is starting to make me suspect that the two of them may be teammates, or that Arinian is a lone Skaa trying to seem like a villager by making everyone look bad. Arinian's eighth post comes, again, only after I ping him, asking for his opinions on HH, Orlok and myself. He points out that HH seems particularly nervous about the lynch as opposed to AG3 where he reacted calmly to the accusations on him. Coupled with Orlok pointing out that HH's comment about LGs, he decides to vote for him. In regards to Orlok, he takes my side in that Orloks points against me were unfounded. He does not the sense that maybe Orlok was too eager in accusing me, which makes him think Orlok wouldn't be a Skaa, because eliminators are usually more careful. In contrast, after I refuted Orlok's points, Arinian says it looks like he accepts the loss and tries to redirect attention back to HH. Before voting on HH, it's important to note that he says if HH turns out to be a Noble, Orlok can be attacked by a vigilante. Nothing Arinian says here isn't true. HH being more concerned about the lynch was likely a result of his role, as we now know. I also can't fault him for agreeing with HH's slip up about the pacing of Long Games, even if I bought his explanation. After reading his views on Orlok, I can't help but agree. However, it bothers me that he mentions a vigilante killing Orlok if HH turns out to be a villager. It gives me a sense that he knew the results of the lynch already and was hoping to take down another villager in the aftermath. This reminds me a lot of a comment Elenion made earlier about either one of Orlok and me just having to be Spiked. I challenged that by asking why Orlok and I can't possibly both be Nobles, and Elenion never answered, which gives me the same vibe I got from Ecth when he avoided my question about Phatt on Day One. Considering that, I would not be surprised if Arinian and Elenion were the remaining Skaa, and their end game plan was to kill me tonight and get Orlok killed by a vigilante, or organize a lynch on Orlok tomorrow without me to refute it. This theory is a bit of a stretch, but considering other information, seems possible. Arinian's ninth post is a response to something I mentioned about me trusting that Stick is not Ruin because my PM with her has kandra in the title. He says he has a PM with a player but the title doesn't have kandra in it, and is wondering if there was some kind of error somewhere. This is a reasonable subject to want clarification on regardless of alignment. If he is a Noble, he could just be wondering if he's in contact with Ruin. If he's a Skaa, he could have the intention of casting doubt on Stick or the player he's in contact with, in order to get another Noble killed. Honestly, it's hard to tell, so I won't think about it too much. Arinian's tenth and most recent post this game is a short one, responding to HH when he placed a vote on himself. He essentially just expresses frustration with the mindset. Like his previous post, not a lot of content and not very indicative of alignment. Normally I don't expect eliminators to make a big deal about this sort of thing, which is a part of the reason why I have Drought on my tentative trust list, but I'm not sure if I've mentioned that before this turn, so it's possible that Arinian picked up on that and is using it to nudge my read on him towards Noble. Unlike him, I have a lot more than ten posts in this game so I would much rather not go back and check to make sure, but I might do so anyway because it could be a helpful clue for me. Looking at the length of this I can only think about how Arinian is the player I intend to analyze with the least content so far. I have a feeling I'll be working on analysis far past my bed time today, as I want to leave the village with as much information as I can in case I die or get converted. Ah well. Break time!

That was not the answer I was hoping for. But thank you anyway

Thank you for telling me this. It allows us to consider things more thoroughly. Honestly, I'm a little glad the fourth kandra is you and I found out when I did, since it means I won't have to reevaluate any other players. @Elbereth, could Kelsier be a Kandra or a Metallurgist, too?

Okay. So the Fourth Kandra knew that Rand was a Kandra, but Rand didn't know his identity. Did you tell the Fourth Kandra that Rand was also in contact with Mage?

Of course it is thank you To start this post off, I want to talk about two things. First, what I have learned about the kandra PMs on Day One, and second, the lynch on Day One. Joe and Stick have referenced some of these details in the thread, but my goal is to paint a clearer picture for everybody so we can consider it thoroughly and miss no details. As we all know, Rand was a Noble Kandra. Joe has claimed to be a Kandra, as well as Stick. On Day One, Rand created PMs with Mage and Len. Joe created PMs with Rand and Stick. Stick created a PM with only Rand. @Elenion, @A Joe in the Bush and @_Stick_, someone may want to ask for confirmation, so if you don't mind, can you three please confirm this to be true. If Stick knowing who Rand was in contact with is any indication, I suspect that Joe did as well. Beyond that, no one else should be aware of this information until now. Why is that significant? Well, two reasons, really. First, I had made an assumption the previous turn that Mage was hit twice, once by the eliminators, once by a Noble Coinshot, rather than double-tapped to get around his self-protection granted by his Iron. It is now, however, a possibility that Mage told his role to Rand, and Rand told Mage's role to someone else. That leaves only three options: Elenion, Joe, and Stick. However, that fails to explain the kill made on Rand, unless the Skaa have a Steel Misting on their team in addition to Kelsier, which I doubt, given the rules explicitly state that all Mistings begin with three vials. If there was a possibility of a Skaa Steel Misting starting with one, I would put it as a tentative maybe, unless the Nobles have a lot more protection than the deaths so far have implied. If I do continue to assume that Mage was hit by a rogue Coinshot (or potentially HH), it's still possible that the Skaa targeted Rand and Mage because they were aware the two were in contact. I have been wrong about coincidences in the past, but both an unclaimed Kandra and one of the Nobles he was in contact with being killed at once by the Skaa accidently? Those odds are not very high. For a second, let's contemplate what it would mean if it were an accident. Rand and Mage would have been chosen for entirely separate reasons. Perhaps because they were onto something, but more likely than not, because their deaths would give us less information, rather than more, while simultaneously removing two active Nobles. I could definitely see that logic working for Rand, especially considering Ecth was a Skaa. For those of you not aware, Ecth and Rand were both eliminators in LG30, Rand's first game, so it's completely possible Ecth suggested they remove Rand sooner rather than later, given how well he did. But why Mage? Mage had voted for Len before changing his vote to Phatt. Mage was also voted on by Stick. Were the Skaa trying to frame one of those two? Perhaps. Thing is, if I'm not mistaken, there were a few players (including myself) who were having doubts about Mage's innocence. Without additional information, it would have been wiser to let Mage continue to live and accrue suspicion, with the intention of pushing towards him becoming a lynch target. It wouldn't be the first time that happened, but I would say there's about a 2 in 3 chance that Mage was deemed worth killing before it could get to that. Hence why I doubt Mage's death was a mere coincidence. It wasn't Rand who killed him, so there are only three players who could have had additional information about Mage at that time. So, let's start with Len. He's the most obvious choice, but that depends heavily on what Rand told him. Personally, I don't think Skaa!Len would have killed Mage off unless he was certain he could get away with it. That means that Rand would have had to inform Len who the other player he contacted was while also never mentioning that Joe and Stick PM'd him. If Len knew Rand was in contact with Mage, and knew that Rand could not pass that information on to anyone else, than he could safely remove a Noble kandra from the game on top of the only other player who knew, before people could figure out he was implicit. There is a slight problem to this theory, however. Len had mentioned in thread on Day One that a kandra had PM'd him. I remember that only because I commented on it. Is it possible he forgot about that detail when the night turn came? Maybe. Is it possible that he didn't care about that detail, in hopes of him being public about having been contacted would get him some brownie points, because why would a Skaa ever admit to having a PM with a kandra right before he died? Definitely. That second point could even be accurate, if we assume he was positive that no other player knew that Mage was Rand's other contact. Unfortunately, this is muddled up by the fact that Joe claimed to have sent PMs not to one, but two kandra. If I was Len and I saw that, regardless of alignment, I would have immediately asked Rand if he was one of them. Even if Rand said no, I would assume he was withholding information due to him not having a reason to trust me, and therefore assume the worst. Next, let's talk about Joe. I am somewhat biased towards him because since Day One I have been suspicious of him. Nothing he has said or done recently has made me think otherwise, but I also planned on doing a thorough analysis of his posts to get a better read on him, which I will do later today. Disregarding that, let's look at him when only considering The Case of the Three Kandra; Two Murders in One Night. If Rand told Stick the two players he PM'd, I can only assume that he told Joe as well. There's a chance that Rand trusted Stick more than Joe, and thus gave her more information, but judging by the posts in Day One, I see the opposite being true. However, PMs tend to be an entirely different dynamic than interactions in thread, so it's possible they talked enough that Rand found himself more trusting of her than Joe. Fortunately, we don't need to ask many questions about what Joe asked Rand about, because our resident Tin Ferring @OrlokTsubodai spied on Joe. Honestly, I find it more than a little odd that you only mentioned Joe's PMs with Stick (let alone left out details to fit your Ruin theory). Do you mind sharing with us what Joe said to Rand? In full? As for Stick... she's been pretty free with giving me this information. I would say it's because she trusts me, but it's hard to tell. There are a few possibilities, other than her being a trusting Noble, such as her being a Skaa and lying to me about the PMs Rand made to protect her or implicate Len, or her being a Skaa with nothing to do with the situation, who hopes to gain my trust so that I don't scrutinize her as much. If it's the latter of those two, well then I hate to break it to you Stick, but until I see a GM say a player's name in green, I will never believe in them completely. I will always question people's motives and reevaluate my stances on them based on hard evidence revealed in the write ups and soft information I reap either from the thread or PMs. That being said, for now, I'm taking your side over Len and Joe. Once Orlok responds, I'll think about this more. But until then, @Arinian, @Jondesu, @DroughtBringer, @Straw, @Bartimaeus. What are your first thoughts on this situation? As an aside, tagging the players that are still playing this game has made me realize that with Szeth and Silver inactive, there's only ten players left. If both the Skaa and Ruin kill tonight, that number will quickly become 8. I can see now why you were so insistent on making the right lynch, Orlok, even though HH was a bad call. Now, onto the second thing I wanted to bring up: the Day One lynch. (1) Magestar: _Stick_, (10) phattemer: Ecthelion III, Amanuensis, A Joe in a Bush, randuir, Arinian, Elenion, Jondesu, Magestar, phattemer, DroughtBringer, (1) Elenion: OrlokTsubodai, (5) No-one: Silverblade5, Straw, Hemalurgic_Headshot, Bartimaeus, Szeth Son-Son Mallano, I have taken the liberty to color all of the players who have died between then and now, in addition to myself. Whether or not Szeth is a Skaa is impossible to tell, given he's never been online, but with SB backing out and Bartimaeus' low activity, I will trust that they are both Nobles, and disregard them when considering how close we are to loss or victory. Straw is a hard player to pin any one alignment, as his play style is a tad chaotic and his activity is rarely consistent. I will note that his vote this cycle on HH was very weird. Note that weird does not mean suspicious, when referring to Straw, since weird is normal for him, and something as blatant as "Easy choice for me" is more likely the result of a villager not considering the implications of their wording rather than an eliminator trying to mess with us or not caring what happens next. I've already advocated that Orlok is, more likely than not, a Noble due to his confrontation of me. However, I find him leaving out details of Joe's PM with Stick and never mentioning the one Joe had with Rand as something that needs further attention and explanation. Stick I am willing to trust for now, however that may change after some discussion regarding TCotTK:TMiON. Droughtbringer's frustration over players voting for themselves seems genuine to me, but otherwise his votes this game have not been particularly helpful, and could point to him being a Skaa. I can understand his frustration, but after dealing with Stink the many times he's voted for himself or even outright committed suicide despite being a villager, I'm numb to that sort of thing now. Granted, he could be a Skaa pretending? But I'm getting the same impression I had from HH, and my gut was right about our beloved Lord Ruler, so I will trust it regarding Drought for now. That leaves A Joe in a Bush, Arinian, Elenion, and Jondesu. If the remaining Skaa are all active, these are the four I would bet my life (well, Neer's life, not mine...) on being the Skaa. Two of these four players I have also determined to be a possible Ruin candidate, but I'm less worried about the Shard than I am the Skaa. For now, I see this game as a race not just against the Skaa, but Ruin as well. I won't bother going out of my way to kill him, just like I'm not even going to bother trying to figure out who Preservation, as I have a feeling it's going to depend way too much on luck, anyway, and I much prefer games of skill than chance. So before this turn ends, I am going to make a thorough post on each of these four players, analyzing everything that they have said and done so far, with hopes of figuring them out before they can either kill or convert me tonight. I will take a short break, then begin with Arinian and Jondesu, I think, since they have considerably less content and I would like to hear what Orlok can tell me about Joe's PM with Rand.

:[ @Elbereth, any chance of pinch hitters this game? I should have asked earlier, considering the situation with Szeth, but this only reminded me. I'm not sure how much has been revealed in the Spec Doc, but I noticed Lopen is back from his BotW binge, so maybe he'd be up for it? I'd personally prefer pinch hitters than kills being wasted on inactives

>> Yeah... to be honest, logic tells me Orlok is Noble. My theory about Kelsier being able to kill and convert someone in a single night turned out false due to the change El made to the number of abilities that can be used at once, so I no longer have that to point to leverage against his sudden attention on me. Also, considering that he began accusing me after Ecth was killed and not before... yeah, it just doesn't make sense for a Skaa to be the first one to lay accusations down at my feet, let alone accusations that are flawed or not completely thought out. Unless the Skaa in question had a way to survive numerous lynches and vigilante kills, it would be a suicide mission, particularly this early, because as soon as I was killed and revealed Noble, all eyes would be on them. It would just me much safer for the Skaa to claim that they trust me or believe I'm village and then kill me in the night, and I'm pretty sure they plan on trying to convert me anyway, because I'm a better asset on their side than I am a dead villager. Which is exactly why I'm asking that the Steel Misting or Ruin kill me N3. The Skaa might waste a metal trying to get the extremely little information I have before it happens, but if they did, they'd be wasting it because I have nothing of significance to give them. Stick has already openly claimed to be a kandra, and she's the only player I have a PM with. We've chat a little about this game, particularly about the PM Orlok spied on, but otherwise she's only told me the players each of the kandra she knows about contacted on the first day, which I'm going to reveal soon, since those PMs are all now closed. First, though, I want to apologize to @Hemalurgic_Headshot. My read on you told me you were village, but I decided it was worth it to follow Orlok's lead. If you turned out to be a Skaa, then Orlok would have been proven Noble, and your aversion to voting for Len on Day 1 could have been due to you being teammates. Mostly I feel guilty because my analysis is saying that Orlok is a Noble anyway, so that first reason is basically moot (even if it would have been nice to know for sure), and Len was the second vote on you, so you two being teammates was basically proven false already. Then there's the fact that you're the Lord Ruler. Personally, I didn't think that role was included in this game on top of Ruin and Preservation, so I am both surprised and upset that we got him killed on D2. I have so many questions, now, like if you were the player who attacked Mage or Ecth. I doubt you were the one who killed Ecth because I'm pretty sure you would have claimed it to convince people not to vote for you, but if you did kill Mage, that could tell us a lot regarding the game's distribution. I can only guess now that you did not kill Mage, however, because you never expressed suspicions towards him, and I don't think you're the type of player to use a one-time kill on someone else at the very start of the game. Still, given how useful your role is for the village (basically our version of Kelsier), I would have been happy if you claimed TLR at some point to hopefully diffuse the votes off you and onto someone else. I'm going to end this post here, take a break to eat dinner, then come back to look closer at the votes, and maybe finally get to analyzing the three players I was most suspicious of before Orlok distracted me last turn. This is probably the last turn I will be alive or uncompromised, unless the Skaa decide to not waste their actions on me and let me get killed by the village for living to long, so I will do my best to make sure everything I need to say gets said.

Ah. I thought kandra PMs were permanent. So, in other words, there's no fair way to prove if a kandra is actually Ruin or not, other than death. Of course it wouldn't be that easy. Alright, I just finished Arc 18 of Worm, so I am now finally going to bed. I won't be online again until after turn over.

... I guess catching Hemalurgic in a "lie" that could be an honest slip is more telling than me pinning Ecth as a Skaa the night before he was killed. Do I need to quote the passage where I accused him? Because apparently no one noticed, despite how many times I've brought it up already. Oh well, I'll do it anyway And the results of this turn: I guess that means absolutely nothing >> ALSO, there's no reason why Orlok and I can't both be Nobles. Why do one of us have to be "Spiked"? (I know you meant Skaa, but I just want to point out that there's nothing wrong with being Spiked this game. Look at me if you need proof)

@Elbereth, can you clarify for me how Ruin's PMs work? Can he create more than one in a turn? If not, can he create a PM, spy on a PM AND kill a player, or is that limited to two actions, or one? How long do Ruin's PMs last? The rules suggest a single-cycle, but Conq said it, and apparently things have changed for balance reasons, so I need to know if I'm going to be able to tell the difference between Ruin and kandra @OrlokTsubodai, why did you leave out an explanation of the rest of Joe's responses? You made it sound like Joe only sent 3 messages, which I think Stick is saying there was more.

I had two questions from your first post this turn. Why do you believe I'm a Noble? Just saying it without an explanation makes me think you might just being saying that to be on my good side. You could be doing that as a villager but something like that is more likely to be done by an eliminator, especially if it can tie that person to you and drag them down with you if they start sinking. Also, what was your line of thought when asking El that question? How did you get there, and what did you think when you saw El's answer? EDIT: @Hemalurgic_Headshot, another question. Why didn't you vote on Len after Phatt did?

Fair enough. I look forward to your response. "I might" =/= Agreement. "I might" = Consideration. Fair enough. I realized you meant Phatt as well, but it was still important for me to address the fact I wasn't the third vote. I fell asleep shortly after I made my last post of D1, not long after my last edit. Look at the time stamp here for the exact time I got off my computer to go to bed. While finding that, I will note that I didn't even see your post shortly after about you thinking Phatt is a villager and being suspicious of HH until now. If I did, I would have said something about it, because that looks a lot like you trying to get some credit off not lynching Phatt before the results came in. In regards to the screenshot itself, I really don't know what to say because that's the fault of the system, not you or me. If I wanted to, I could probably find more out of game evidence to support my claim of when I went to bed using discord, but because it's legitimately a waste of both your time and mine, I'm not going to bother. Instead, I'll just do this. I'm not lying when I went to sleep, when I woke up, or when I finally looked at the Night thread. I can only guess as to why it says that. If I had to guess, I'd attribute it to two factors. First, the Last Visited will continue to say "7 hours ago" even if a player has not been active for 7 hours and 59 minutes. Your post accusing Headshot was at 0057am your time. That screenshot is at 0838. That is a total of 7 hours and 41 minutes, leaving a 19 minute leeway for any of my devices to have last checked the website. Does that prove that I checked the website before that? Maybe. If the system is infallible, then yes. But I definitely don't remember looking at the thread then, let alone after you posted an hour later. So either there was a glitch somewhere or in a half-asleep daze I picked up my phone to google something and it pinged me because the 17th Shard is the default page on my phone's browser app. I do that a lot when I sleep, because I'll wake up from dreams with ideas for my stories and will look up information and jot down notes. But if you don't want to believe that, then let's look at when Headshots post was. 0154 for you. So, let's subtract 7 hours exactly from 0838. That brings us to 0138. Okay. I can see the perspective from a Noble, maybe. Your theory is Headshot and I are Skaa together, that he asked me for help on how to respond to you, I read your post and gave him tips in the doc. So, if I was helping him, then why didn't I read the thread right after he posted? Hm, wait. I see it! 54 - 38 = 16! 16 Minutes! 16 Shards! It can't be a coincidence! It all makes sense now! Preservation is manipulating the numbers on our clocks to lead the Nobles to the Skaa! ... Not. Something I'm failing to grasp is why are you latching onto this idea that it's me. Isn't absolutely every other person here just as capable of being Headshot's coach? There were 16 players alive at the time, one we know for a fact that was Skaa (Ecth) So why not Ecth? Why not one of the 11 other players who are not proven Nobles? Now that I think about it, why not HH himself? Why does he even need someone to help him defend against you? Using this as evidence against ultimately boils down to you saying in a roundabout way that HH can't articulate a genuine response to your accusations on his own. As for why I didn't mention him in that last post, it's because I wasn't arguing for his innocence or his lackthereof. I was responding to the extremely inaccurate accusations you laid against me, and nothing else. That alone took me six hours to muster, more than the amount of time I wanted to spend on this game tonight because I still have a write up to finish. If I had gone and commented on anything else you would have said, it would have taken me until now to have posted my first response. Well, I might as well do it now, since you've asked me so nicely. The first thing I noticed going back to read all of HHs posts for is that I was confusing him with Droughtbringer. As you'll see in my first post this turn, he's the player I @mentioned when I asked about Drought's vote-for-inactives plan. Their avatars aren't similar enough for me to confuse, so honestly, I'm not sure how I managed that, but I did and it affected some of the things I said in my previous post. I'll reconsider those things in a minute, since I prefer to start from the beginning. Like many other players (including Phatt), HH was content to sit back and wait for discussion to happen. After I addressed the problem with doing that by voting for Phatt, he's been participating a little bit more. He begins doing so by voting for Phatt when the only other option was Len. He says he was tempted to vote along with you and Mage because he had good reads on you two from an earlier an earlier discussion, but ultimately decides to join the bandwagon for no other reason than "I'm susceptible to bandwagons." Is this suspicious on its own? I would say no because in the past I've seen plenty of villagers say or act similar, but what I find interesting is what he says as he retracts it. First, he says he expected to be accused of being a Skaa because he decided to bandwagon. He's not surprised, but he still did it. He immediately looks at the other two candidates (Len and Mage) and says he can't do anything with either vote. Mage, because he only had 1 versus 6 (before HH retracted, Arin joined the bandwagon) and presumably Len for the same reason (Len had two at the time). Weird thing is, he doesn't comment on Mage again at all, but says "Len, I'm not feeling right now. He might be suspicious, but I don't think it's enough." That the second time he refuses to vote on Len, this time saying Len is suspicious, which he didn't do the first time he considered it. Len never posted between his vote on Phatt and his retraction, so it seems really weird that he'd say that, let alone remain voteless. HH responds to your comments on him, and he accepts it, saying "I don't think I'm as suspicious as Len or phatt, but apparently I am. It's a matter of perspective." What this suggests to me is that HH is a victim of group think. I'm not sure if he has trouble formulating suspicions of his own, but so far this game he's just been following the crowd, which he alludes to earlier when he says he's susceptible to bandwagons. This is the first post that made me want to give Headshot the benefit of that doubt, because otherwise I would be expecting everyone here to think as thoroughly about these games as me, which I can't and won't do because that's unfair to them. As a result of that, this post makes me think he's a villager. Unfortunately he muddles up that interpretation by punctuating the post with "most of us are confused and wondering who to lynch," which doesn't make any sense because it implies other people have said they're confused and wondering (which they haven't). I personally don't think that HH would say that as an eliminator, but I'm willing to accept the possibility that he only said it to seem innocent. His next post is shortly after Phatt votes for Elenion to bring the numbers closer (3 on Len to 5 on Phatt). He responds to a statement Phatt made "on the off chance that some of the people who like to hop off bandwagons decide to hop off this one" with his own "Is that a deliberate attempt to get me to vote on Len?" I find this interesting because this is the third time he avoids voting for Len, despite saying earlier that Len is suspicious, and implying the reason he wouldn't vote for mage is because the margin was too big. He had an opportunity then to make the lynch 5 on Phatt and 4 on Len, which could have tipped the balance. In summary, he was given the opportunity to vote for Len over Phatt three times before the lynch was fully sealed, and he chose Phatt or abstinence each time. For that reason, I think that if Orlok is right about Headshot, then it's more likely Len who's his teammate than me. (EDIT: Which is weird because Len is voting for him, which I now see after doing the vote tally) Braize, Len was the very next person to post and vote for Phatt, and literally six minutes later HH asks the thread if he should join the bandwagon or not. At this point I want to believe there's no way HH can be a Skaa, let alone a Skaa with Len, because if it's true, then that's just... wow. Okay. I seriously need to stop. I've already spent most of my shift on this game, I have actual work I need to do, and when that's done I really should put the finishing touches on the LG30 finale, as I've been distracted from it long enough. I will say that the way HH started off the night, trying to shift the suspicion towards the players who voted for Phatt, seems really suspect, but a part of me feels that it's just too blatant. Every time he makes a post like this, I really do get the feeling he is just a confused villager wondering what to do. I get the exact same feeling when I read his follow up post, the explanation of his actions, as well his response to Stick when she was being vague about her suspicions towards him. That said, his two posts today have read... off to me. Mostly because I don't like that he says "I believe that Aman is a noble for now" without actually explaining why. That and I'm having trouble seeing why he asked El the question he did. @Hemalurgic_Headshot, can you explain these two things to me? I'm willing to give him the benefit of the doubt regarding the long games comment, but as for the rest of that post, where he votes for you... gah. Saying definites like "Orlok is Skaa" contradicts him being a "confused villager wondering who to lynch." While typing this post, I've gotten ninja'd by both El and Orlok. El said Kelsier couldn't have converted someone last night, which is relieving in one sense, but irritating because now I'm left wondering if I'm half-Skaa and if they're going to try converting me. Orlok has also responded again, and accepted that his case against me was not as strong as he initially believed, and in retrospect, I doubt he would have made as many mistakes as he did if he was a Skaa trying to get me lynched. It would have been much safer for him to just kill me in the night rather than confront me openly like that, and in the event that he decided to, I imagine he'd have been more careful about it. @OrlokTsubodai, you've implied you're a Tin Ferring by admitting you spied on Joe's PM. The only other explanation would be that you're Ruin, who you've advocated getting rid of sooner rather than later. For that reason, I trust you're at least not a Shard, however I would like to find a way to prove you're not just Skaamates with Joe or Stick, if we both manage to live until N3. I have a plan that I will discuss with you around then. I'm willing to follow your lead on Hemalurgic_Headshot, now that you've backed down and I've looked at him closer. A small part of me still believes he is innocent, but right now I have more reason to believe you are a Noble than I do him. I'm sorry if I came off rude in my earlier post, or even at any point in this one, but as I said in my previous post's disclaimer, I felt your claims of evidence were farfetched. The screenshot really helps, tho, because I can see how something like that would color your perspective, even though I know that it's inaccurate. Still, kudos to you for going that extra mile. Day 2 Vote Tally (1) Szeth Son-Son Mallano: DroughtBringer, (3) Hemalurgic_Headshot: OrlokTsubodai, Elenion, Amanuensis (1) OrlokTsubodai: Hemalurgic_Headshot, Amanuensis, 14 hours left in the Day and only five players have voted. Despite all the information we got, me sitting in the background didn't really get the village anywhere. I was hoping people would talk more while I was asleep, but unfortunately activity this turn hasn't been very high. @Elenion, do you still want to vote for HH after the discussion between Orlok and me? @Jondesu, @Silverblade5, @Arinian, @Straw, @Bartimaeus, @DroughtBringer, @_Stick_, what are your opinions on HH, Orlok and myself? I'd mention Szeth Son-Son Mallano, but he hasn't been online since March 8th, so I don't see the point anymore.

Disclaimer. Before reading, please note that while I was frustrated when I wrote this, I don't mean to sound rude or condescending. I can see it definitely appearing that way, but I will note that my reaction should be read more as someone hearing something ridiculous and refuting it with sensible facts, like if someone told me in 2011 that Trump was going to be president some day, and I went on to explain all the reasons why that's a horrible idea and how America could never let that happen. Granted, that's not the best example I could have used, given Trump turned out to be President, but I stand by it because it's a relateable feeling. In this case with Orlok accusing me, he's just wrong. Yes Orlok. You caught me. I'm a Skaa, and my Skaa ally accused me of being Preservation to keep people from lynching me when I was in no danger, without fearing Ruin seeing it and deciding to kill me. That's the only explanation that makes sense. If we were enemies, why would a Skaa want people to think I'm a confirmed Noble role? To get Ruin to kill me? Now that's just ridiculous. The simplest explanation is most likely right. Occam's razor, mate. ... Sarcasm aside, you're wrong. Are your mistakes deliberate or unintentional? I'm not sure. But I have a feeling that I'm going to be able to answer that question after I finish analyzing you. Before I do that, though, I guess I'll muster a defense. Shouldn't be hard considering nearly everything you've accused me is blatantly wrong. So, let's start from the top. Underline mine. When did I agree to the idea of lynching Bartimaeus today? Let's see. I mentioned Bart in my first post this turn, let's see what that says... Well, huh. That's strange. Not only do I tell HH "I think we have enough information to work with that we don't need to resort to your vote-for-an-inactive plan just yet" but I also didn't vote on Bartimaeus. Yes, I mentioned the fact that last turn I would suggest voting for him, but that was only because I have no way of knowing if Bart even saw that, and therefore I needed to make sure he was aware details. I also wanted to apply a little pressure on the guy with hopes that it would encourage him to post without the need of me voting, which I didn't plan to do anyway. Hm. Maybe I said something in my second post about lynching Bart? Let's check. Let's see. I said I might join HH's vote on Szeth. That fits the argument you're trying to make better, but still not exactly, since that's no different than me saying I'm considering the situation. In conclusion, still nothing about me "agreeing to the idea of lynching Bartimaeus today." But maybe the answer is in my fourth post (skipping my third because it mentions nothing about Bart or lynching) in which I responded directly to Bart after he answered my mention. Said the name Bart twice, both in black, so those aren't votes. Not even a vague threat on his life, only a thanks and me declaring that I want to hear his thoughts on the game. That leaves one post left. My last post I made before I went to sleep, and the one I'm writing now. Emphasis mine. I made a direct promise here to do the direct opposite of what you've accused me of. A promise that I'll note you're forcing me to break by distracting me with your accusations. It most likely is a coincidence that happened, but I'm going to entertain the whispering in my head saying that you're a Skaa and that doing so somehow fits your agenda. That being said, let's revisit that quote of yours again. "I am suspicious of Aman for agreeing to the idea of lynching Bartimaeus today," Well, I didn't agree to the idea of lynching Bartimaeus this turn, so maybe I just read this statement wrong. Are you referring to my response to HH yesterday when he first proposed the plan? Let's see what I said. The most notable parts are "I need to consider it more" and "I would be willing to experiment tomorrow, starting with Bartimaeus." So what does this say? That I'm thinking hard about this (and a ton of other things) and that I am open to other player's ideas. Could the "would be willing to experiment tomorrow" be interpreted as agreement? Sure. But the funny thing is, the very fact that I posted this before the results of the turn contradict the rest of your accusation. Specifically, "despite the number of attacks last night." I don't know about you, Orlok, but I'm not psychic. As much as I wish I could, I can't see into the future. I can make predictions, but I did not anticipate four kill attempts, let alone did I try. Also, I really don't like that you keep saying "we got very little information from the last cycles lynch." First off, I disagree. I got plenty of information from the lynch, which I highlighted in my giant post last turn, and now that today has revealed the alignment of three players who were involved, we can only stand to gain more by looking at it again. Second of all, how much information do you expect out of a D1 lynch? Unless an eliminator with an important role messes up really bad and his teammates try anything they can to save him, I don't see how it could have gone much better. The turn ended with 12 players of 17 voting for someone, which isn't bad at all, considering one of the players has not been online since before the game began, meaning 75% of players were involved. Just because most of the votes on the same person doesn't mean we didn't learn anything. The alternatives were Mage (who we now know is a villager), who Stick voted for, and Len, who you voted for, and have now seemed to have forgotten. My conclusion? You're exaggerating us wasting the lynch to push an agenda. And considering I'm one of your targets, a player you've remarked as "terrifying" and others have referred to as "our best analyst," it's hard not to assume that you have ill intent towards me and the village from the start. Especially considering that your first point against me was blatantly wrong, and that it's not the only one. How about we take a look at the next one? Emphasis mine. I was the second vote on phattemer, not the third. That is unless you're counting Len's poke vote on Phatt, which he retracted before Ecth voted for him, who I consider the first because unlike Len's, it had an actual reason, and because the two votes were never simultaneous (which is what matters). Unfortunately I can't argue that I play "at a level above" others, even if I think it's a poor way to word it. I wouldn't say my experience is "vast" or that my mind is sharp, but I can agree with that I invest a lot of time and effort into these games because of how much I enjoy them. This, like exaggerating us wasting the lynch, just makes me think you're pushing an agenda. In this case, that I'm frighteningly good and people shouldn't trust me. Is it generally good advice? Sure, even if I hate that it is. But you're pushing it a bit too hard and I can't help but feel like you're trying to make me look like something I'm not. Really, it's the same strategy Ecth had, in accusing me of being Preservation, only a lot less subtle. The rest of this statement, about me being amused to raise the points about desiring to spike the statistics while doing it... what? For one, your use of the word desire and amusement doesn't match the tone of two posts regarding the statistics at all. Instead of wasting other player's time, I'll go back and quote exactly what I said on the matter. I first mentioned it in the analysis of Drought's vote on Phatt: Emphasis mine. So here, I said that an eliminator would be less likely to vote for Phatt in that scenario, and that if I was a Skaa, I might consider it just to spite the statistics. But I wasn't even in that scenario, and I was the first player to seriously vote for Phatt, unless you count Ecth, who I don't. So really, I don't understand where you're getting this idea that I was messing with the statistics and openly declaring by saying "If I was, I would." Maybe it was my second post, then, where I clarified what I meant for Drought? So, I openly say here that I'd strategize around the statistics. Is that what you're accusing me of then? Strategizing around the statistics, and then telling the thread what I did? I guess you really don't know me as well as you think. I wouldn't even consider it, let alone be amused by the idea. Albeit indirectly, you've pointed out how serious I take these games. There's a few people out there who interpret that as me being over competitive. The fact is, I see it as my responsibility to do my best not because I want to win, but because I have allies relying on me. If I were a Skaa, I can just about guarantee I'd be too busy plotting our path to victory and worrying about exposing myself and consequently letting my team down to poke fun like that. Have I done similar things before? Yes, but only when I've been a revealed eliminator, because then my alignment is already exposed and I can openly say things to distract and confuse the village. You end this point against me saying the evidence is circumstantial at best. I might be wrong, but doesn't circumstantial mean something indirectly points to guilt without proving it? I don't see how a single piece of your "evidence" fits that, even if your fact about me being the third vote in the bandwagon wasn't false, or if you didn't misinterpret my short discussion with Drought on statistics. Like Ecth making a larger deal about my request for Ruin to clear our inactives than what it actually was, I'm getting the exact same impression that you're reaching here, too. Lord Ruler, I've written so much already, and I'm barely halfway through your accusations. Did you know you said my name 21 times? Now you got me eager to see how many times I've been mentioned in the Skaa doc. Jokes aside, I'm actually confused by your next paragraph, involving stick. Two questions for you, Orlok. Why don't you believe Stick to be a Skaa, and just how exactly does that justify me being evil? The answer I suspect to the first question is that you know Stick isn't a Skaa because you are. As for the second, I have no idea how Stick being Ruin would correlate to me being a Skaa. Seriously, explain that one to me, please. As for the situation itself... you're admitting to spying on Joe and Stick's PM last night, in which he asks if Stick is Ruin and ends the PM with "Don't worry, I won't tell." Joe has ninja'd me while writing this to confirm what you said is true, and that he won't say anything about Stick's role, so at the very least you're not lying. Well, considering that I got a PM from Stick this cycle and it has kandra in the title, I severely doubt she's Ruin. Besides, if I had spied on that PM, I would immediately question why Joe was asking that question to begin with, and why he would make the promise not to tell. Isn't the whole point of village spy roles trying to catch eliminators in the act of gathering information and manipulating players? The fact that Joe asked her if she was Ruin instead of offering a role claim suggests to me a specific purpose. @A Joe in the Bush, since Orlok's not going to ask you, can you tell me what that specific purpose is? Considering that El is helping GM this game, I would think she'd have had a similar mindset when balancing it, although it does depend on how much say she had in that, over Conq and DA. Knowing her, I would guess a lot. However, one thing you've got to consider is the situation with half-Skaa is extremely similar to her Nalthis LG, in which Meta was a Returned and luckat was a Potential Returned. Luckat in that game was arguably "the village's best player" and El still gave her the potential to be evil on top of Meta. The problem you present with me being a half-Skaa is that on the flipside, it could easily be balanced by making sure the Skaa consisted of newer players and players who are not as active. Ecth fits the second of those criteria, and yet I don't see you bringing that up. You know what's funny to me? Before today, Orlok, you were never confrontational towards me. Both in D1 and N1, you responded to a few things I said and even asked me some questions, but you never stated being suspicious of me. Now, all of a sudden, I'm right up there on your list next to HH and you're trying to focus the discussion on me, given how many times you've said my name. I started to think about this, and remembered something I had completely forgotten, because when I reread the rules after the game began, I didn't bother scrolling down to see the questions people asked. Do you know what one of those questions was? We have very good reason to believe that Kelsier used his Steel last night. I had assumed people could only use one before, but Conq's answer above confirms that players can use two actions a cycle. To make sure this hasn't changed, @Elbereth, can you confirm it's possible that Kelsier could attack a player and convert another in a single night? If what Conq said is to be any indication, then the answer is yes, which gives me a theory. I wasn't attacked last night because Ecth, Orlok and their third ally wanted to try converting me first. It failed, and now Orlok no longer has a reason to step around me. This theory would also explain why they didn't attack me on D1. If I was Preservation, they could kill me with Kelsier's Steelshot (since Pres is only immune to the lynch and the Skaa kill). If I was protected by a Lurcher, they could kill me with the Skaa kill (Lurcher's only protect from Steel Mistings), so unless I was both of those things, they could have easily taken me out of the equation with a double tap. The rest of the protects would either take turns to store power first, or could just as easily be circumvented with a double tap. Unless the Skaa were being ridiculously cautious for fear of me having multiple instances of protection, the only logical explanation is that they intended to convert me last night, which sadly means it's essential that I die for entirely different reasons than Orlok is highlighting. I'll get to the details on that when I'm finished with this post. Bullets were added to make answering easier. Already responded to this, but I'll reiterate it. I did NOT announce support for lynching Szeth. The last post I made before this one said I was going to analyze the three players I was suspicious of the most and vote for them. Also, how can you use the phrase "ironic mention" when the only way it could be an ironic mention is if it were true? It wasn't, which means you're either trying to sell overconfidence (AKA, you're evil) or you're tunneling hard (you're a Noble) "Randuir and I" is a prettttty blatant use of "This player is confirmed good, look at him agree with something I said. I must be good too" if I've ever seen it. As you've pointed out, I've denied it because the thought never even crossed my mind. Say what you want about me being "a level above the rest," but when has my power ever been subtle? My strength as a player is analyzing what people say and composing logical arguments and appealing to emotion to sway votes. My initial statement about Joe that you latched on to in the beginning never even suggested suspicion. Want me to quote it? Here: "I would end this post with me publicly declaring my read on Joe like I did with Jon, but I'm going to keep that in my pocket for now, since there's a bit more to process, and I want to see more players react to the lynch on Phatt, first." Which part of that is me casting suspicion on him? I just said he posted a larger response that I needed to process, and I wanted to see more opinions on Phatt. Rather than quote, I'm just going to link you all to my posts regarding HH. The first time I talked about him, it was after he retracted his vote. I included HH in a "more likely" list because along with Joe and Rand, he fit the 3-6 vote margins. You'll notice there that I said it was interesting, not suspicious, and that this was before he retracted it. The next time I mention HH is in my megapost last night. I acknowledge that the circumstances of his vote is suspect, but I explain that if he were an eliminator I doubt he would have second guessed himself like that. In my third post where I mention him, I only ask how the results affect his plan to lynch inactives, which is soon followed by me pointing out how weird it is that HH didn't mention the possibility of the Skaa thinking I have protection. At no point do I see a "U-turn". Can you please point out where I became a staynch defender of HH? Or when I cast suspicion on Len? Because I just looked through all my interactions with Len, and that never happened. How many false statements does this make now? Three? Four? Once again, I've already responded to this, but I don't mind summarizing it. Sure, you can say that I focused the discussion on a relatively inactive player, but I did not limit the information we got from the lynch, as much as you want to say it. If I didn't do what I did, I would not have figured out that Ecth was a Skaa when I did, and although it barely matters because someone killed Ecth before I could, I would have attempted to lynch him today. Furthermore, you're doing that thing where you're either lying very badly or mixing your facts up, again. I asked every player to give their views on Phattemer ten hours after I presented my case on him, before which only two players (Jon and Joe) reacted to it. It wasn't until five hours later that you mentioned anything about bandwagoning, and if you click this link and reread the posts that come after, you'll see I never once encouraged it to form further, nor did I set any parameters on the conversation. Are you talking about N1? Okay, great. Now I can use math to prove you wrong. Turn over were posted at 7pm my time, at which time I was asleep and not online. You posted on the thread 57 minutes later, at which point I was still asleep. HH replied to your rebuttal an hour later, which I'm sure you could guess, means I was still asleep. The next time you posted was 10 hours later, at which point you mentioned me because you saw me viewing the thread. I responded twelve minutes later, saying that I would get right to it after I eat breakfast, because at that time you noticed me I had finally gotten out of bed to sit at my desk and began reading what I missed. So, if you're trying to use timing here to accuse me here of being busy coaching HH as he wrote his response to you, anyone can see the math doesn't add up. Granted that means you have to assume I was asleep when I'm saying I was, but that's not the sort of thing I would lie about. ANDDD THAT'S ALL HE WROTE, FOLKS. So, Orlok. Either you're a Noble who's tunneling so hard that they're mixing up the facts and seeing ghosts where there are none, or you're a Skaa who's blatantly lying out of desperation to turn the village on me. A part of me wants to believe it's the former, but if you are, I'm going to be frustrated. that you you just made me waste almost six hours responding to you and making myself suspicious of your intent when I could have been analyzing our real enemies. If that's the case, then I can already see us facepalming in the dead doc together, because at this point I see no way for this to end without both of us dying. Whether I get lynched and you get killed because you were wrong about a village Aman, or people take my side, see that you're a villager too, and have to kill me anyway for fear of me having been converted by the Skaa, which I'm about to advocate, it's inevitable. I'm going to take a chance on it being the latter scenario, however, and place my vote on you. Orlok. Too many things you've said about me are either misinterpretations of my intent or just plain wrong, as anyone can see above. You talk about me subtly casting suspicion on Joe with three sentences, then go ahead and try to undermine everything I've said and done, and since I personally would rather believe you're saying and doing these things as an eliminator rather than a villager, I'm inherently susceptible to confirmation bias. I just read through this again, and realized that I forgot to clarify the business with me advocating my own death. Admittedly I would rather not die at the village's hands, but I don't see many scenarios where I survive until the fourth cycle. I'm now confident that Kelsier attempted to convert me last night and failed, but with that revelation I see now that no villager has a good reason to believe I haven't been turned. Unless Orlok is Kelsier himself and we lynch him today, everyone is going to have their doubt in their minds. So this is what I ask. Lynch Orlok today. If he is not a Skaa at all, I need to die. I would prefer not immediately, but if the Coinshot who attacked Mage or Ruin feels like it, they can come to my home tonight and share a drink with me before ending my life. Whether it's written or drawn, I think that would make for a fun scene, especially if it's Ruin after all the implications I've been making about me (Reen) being Spiked and whispering to him. Otherwise, the Coinshot/Ruin can leave me alive for one more day turn so that we can see who wants to get rid of me while I take advantage of another day turn to encourage discussion and apply pressure the Skaa. If I don't manage to find another one of them between now and then, I won't bother arguing for me to live any longer.

Well, after 14 hours I'm finally home from work. I'm going to lie down now and get some rest. When I wake up, I'll figure out the three players I'm most suspicious of and do some thorough analysis on each to determine which one I want to vote for. Until then, I hope more people post. While I don't mind instigating discussion, I much prefer it when it happens without my influence. Have a good day / afternoon / evening, all.

It's all good. STINK told me he might join, so the number may indeed reach 20. Isn't that right, @STINK.