Young Bard

Oh... Oops. Yeah, sorry that this is the last hour before rollover. Let's see between Fifth and Rae - I remember being pretty neutral about Fifth and somewhat village leaning on Rae, but let's see. So, Rae gave a rundown of every player here: That list seems fairly NAI, and while I agree with most of it, it doesn't come out as pandering or trying to avoid attention either. Fifth didn't provide much of an explanation for their vote either, besides that he'd vote for Fura and/or Drake instead if they weren't cleared. Speaking of Fifth... there doesn't appear to be much of a case there either. "They sound village but I'm not 100% convinced" is also not a convincing argument. Some of the discussion in earlier cycles - particularly Cycle 2, I haven't really taken in, so I'd like to do some analysis of that - unfortunately, I don't think there's time this cycle. Honestly, if this is what the lynch is down to this cycle, I'd rather lynch an inactive over no lynch, so Hemalurgic Headshot - they haven't posted at all recently (1 post in the last week), but have been online. Their last post did mention that they'd had a lot of trouble keeping up, which I can empathise with, but it's still worth making sure they're not just lurking.

Hmmm... That's disappointing - as Burnt said, the odds are high that a Misting will die tonight, which means that next cycle is the last cycle we can catch the Inquisitor before they have the ability to convert again. (I'm actually not all that convinced that the Inquisitor converting again would be a bad thing - that way we can search for interactions and the game can be a bit less of a lost cause for the Inquisitors.) Also, sorry I wasn't around much basically at all this day turn, I just got busy/tired. I should be more active from hereon out.

I'm fairly suspicious of those who are voting on me, since I can basically be hard-cleared this cycle or next cycle when Fura or the next ledger holder closes the circle - it's quite possible that the Elims don't want a trusted group of 5 hardcleared players, or as close to it as possible, running around, and I don't blame them. Of them, Kidpen seems to be the one who's already got votes on them for both that and other reasons, and looking at the arguments and at Kidpen's history, I'm inclined to agree. I think I mentioned it already, but if I didn't, I bought it from the black market C1.

Right. I'd hoped to have another list prepared of who I'm clearing and why, but I wanted to get it out this Cycle and I don't feel like going through in the amount of detail I wanted to, so here's a quick rundown of my thoughts without having gone back through players posts or providing any actual analysis - green indicates I trust those players, orange indicates I'm not prepared to clear them, and red is I'd like them Coinshot or lynched ASAP. I intend to do the list properly, which might see a couple opinions change, once I'm properly awake, since it's 2:30am and I have school tomorrow. Haelbarde (Spar) Burnt Spaghetti (Opal Ghetti) Snipexe (Cutting Bored) Araris Valerian (Hadrian Penrod) Lumgol (Teraval) shanerockes (Bill) Doc12 (Galen Aurette) Elandera (TBA) Fifth Scholar (Lerdar) Devotary of Spontaneity (Nevene) Rathmaskal (Rebelmaskal) Sart (TBA) STINK (Fonar Redacted) The other thing I want to bring up is that if the Inquisitor doesn't kill a Misting tonight, it may be worth killing a Misting in the lynch tomorrow, for all the reasons discussed way back in Day 1. Looking for a lone Inquisitor is frankly not a very interesting job, and pretty demoralising for the Inquisitor too.

I'm actually more inclined to agree with Snipexe on this one - from a meta perspective, the level to which you're pushing for Drake's appointment is kind of mayorish - with the possibility of the game being less fun because of it. I don't mind voting on Drake, since I know they're a villager, but I feel like it could be crossing a line to push too hard for others to do the same. I know this is maybe hypocritical coming from me - I made a similar statement at the end of turn 3 to Drake about if Rae dies, but I was disappointed with Burnt and El dying early, and didn't want Rae to die too by vote manipulation, as well as being a very spontaneous decision in the madness that was going on then. People play SE for all kinds of reasons, and focusing too hard on optimal play can do more harm than good.

One thing I notice - one of the daggers from last cycle is still there - I expected them both to be gone, bought by the Elims unless the village one the bet for them. Also, no Elim kill, which is similarly revealing. I think I seriously overestimated the buying power of the Elim team - that's likely counterbalanced by something else, though - what, I'm not exactly sure. Possibly just the fact that we have unreliable lynches? But Joe didn't know that would definitely be the case when he balanced the game, so I doubt it. I'm pretty sure we have confirmation there are no secret rules this game (paranoia fuelled question, but can you confirm this, Joe?), otherwise I'd have suspicion on the trustworthiness of ledger scans or the like. It's possible they're hoarding their boxings for bribes, perhaps? If any other Elim gets into trouble, combined with the village wanting to keep as few votes as possible on a player, they can swing the lynch for a cycle or two whenever one of there own gets in trouble - waste enough time that they can win the game. The other major problem we'll have to start facing in the extreme late game is if anyone reaches more than 35 boxings or so - honestly, with the death rate being what it is right now, I don't think that will be an issue for a while, but it has the possibility of sneaking up on us if we're not careful. (I think it's fair to say that most of us would definitely pull off the solo win if given the opportunity, let's be honest.)

I'm inclined to trust the result - there was a mountain of evidence against Alv, his excuses were flimsy and lukewarm at best, and he seemed to be happy to troll people up until the end with that vote on himself at the end of the cycle, which he might do as village, but seems much more designed to sow discord and confusion into the game. I give 90+% odds that he was an Eliminator.

I think Alv should be lynched - storms, Alv thinks Alv should be lynched. I'm tempted to take my vote off of Alv to give more chance of a correct alignment flip, but I made that mistake last cycle, and I have no intention of making it again.

Vote Tally - End of Day 3Alvron (3): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZArk1002 (3): Alvron, Arraenae, FuramirionindArraenae (1): RayOfSunshinexxGaea (1): Fifth Scholarlittle wilson (1): Araris Valerian Young Bard (1): DrakeMarshmallow Vote Count - Writeup:Alvron (2): Elandera, StrikerEZRayofSunshine (3): Alvron, Arraenae, FuramirionindxxGaea (1): Fifth Scholarlittle wilson (3): Araris Valerian, Sunshine, ElberethBard (1): Drake Marshmallow Vote Count with changes: Alvron (32): Elandera, Elbereth, StrikerEZRayofSunshine (3): Alvron, Arraenae, FuramirionindxxGaea (1): Fifth Scholarlittle wilson (13): Araris Valerian, Sunshine, ElberethBard (1): Drake Marshmallow So both vote manipulations happened towards Wilson - one from El's vote on Alv, and one from Ark's vote on Rae. Then El died, and Ark was lynched - I don't think that's a coincidence. For Ark, at least one of those who voted on Ark was an Elim, to get some of the boxings back (and the one from the black market) - I'd say that's Alv, and maybe one of Fura/Rae? For El, I'm not sure. No-one voted on them, so it goes to Gaea. I'm inclined to believe, then, that the Elims have enough boxings to get both daggers (certainly at least one) tonight - if you're a villager with enough boxings, I encourage you to counterbid for them, since that way we prevent the Elims from getting two kills tomorrow night and possibly subsequent nights after that, which would be bad. I'd also place a distrust on anyone who seems too eager to get boxings - Drake fits into that category, but I may be tunnelling on him after last cycle. Ugh. I'm really annoyed with myself for arranging for less votes on Alv/Ark now, because then this probably wouldn't have happened. Sorry, everyone. ...Ninja'd by Hael by two minutes.

...Well, that wasn't what I expected. Excuse me while I try and find the correct vote tally from the end of last cycle and we do a comparison. Also, Alv. Your life was saved by these vote manipulations, and you pushed very strongly for Gaea's survival. I'm thinking it's obvious enough that you might be framed, but more likely is that having unreliable lynches for the rest of the game was worth losing an Elim for.

Love you, Joe. We threw a "30 minutes to rollover" party just for you. Aren't you happy?

...Snip, Striker, I definitely didn't type the wrong name there. Nope. Definitely not. (Sorry - I decided there was an admittedly small chance I'd die tonight so I wanted that out there in case I did.) As proof, the full title of the Ledger is "The Great and Mighty Finder of Evildoers". Use it well, Striker.

Hmmmm... Wild theory, Drake is an Elim, Rae is getting stabbed tonight, and the knife gets passed to Drake since Ark has been lynched and is the only other vote on Rae. They can't change plans because their Elim buddies are offline already. It seems a little obvious, with Snip already having been called out after Burnt's death. Slightly less wild theory, Drake is doing a vote manip this cycle, and intends for Rae to die. @DrakeMarshmallow, if Rae isn't alive next cycle, one way or another, I intend to lynch you next cycle. I don't see anything that's particularly suspicious about her. Oh, and I never did get time to mention this before, but Snip received the Ledger from me, after I scanned him (he's Village - I don't think there's a way to fake that if he's actually corrupt in the rules, but I could be wrong.) I'll mention this at my post that will be out next turn as well, since I'm not sure many people will see this in the middle of all the madness.

...Huh. They're marked under the 'recently browsing' section at the bottom of the page, which I was going off of - I didn't realise that was out of date, seeing as the names were still changing across time. That's weird. Just when I think I've figured out how the site and "Who's Online" functions work, too. Anyway, things are slowing down enough that I want to go back through and read things properly now. And sorry Alv... I promise it won't happen again. *pouts*

After the game, this moment at the end of Turn 3 is going to be hilarious to read through, I suspect (assuming there's at least one Eliminator online, which seems likely). ...Who thinks that this comment will be analysed to oblivion in later cycles? Place your bets now, people. Also, I find it hilarious that Elandera has been reading the thread for the last while without posting - I'd call them out for lurking, but I have a strong suspicion that we're producing content as fast as they're reading it.

Wait, Hael didn't retract their vote - I'm assuming you will in a moment, so I'll leave my vote off Alv. As for bribery, this is where I wanted a vote off of Rae, but that looks unlikely to happen, unfortunately. I'm mildly suspicious of @DrakeMarshmallow, seeing as a lynch on Alv seems fairly likely at this point, and so objecting is only serving to make it more likely that either Alv and Ark's alignment flips wrong, or else that a vote manipulation occurs to move the lynch onto Rae.

Alv. Out of the goodness of his cold, black heart? That post is ten minutes old now, though, so largely redundant anyway.

I know - at this pace I just post and then immediately start typing again, since I know *someone* will have posted between my previous post and the next one. It's been a while since I've seen a game be this insane more than half an hour before rollover.

Sorry for the double post if 5 people haven't posted between this post and the last one - if Devotary's vote tally is right, then we need one of Hael, Fura, Alv and Rae to take their votes off Ark, of which @Haelbarde and @Arraenae are online right now, and at least one of @DrakeMarshmallow and @RayOfSunshine to take their votes off of Rae to avoid vote manipulation.

Ideally, we should have less votes on other people, not more on Alv, but as an interim vote, Alv - to be retracted once votes have been taken off other candidates.

Ugh. I just got on, and I have no clue what is happening. I'm against lynching a constable today - we have one more shot and I think we should wait until we have a better idea - once we kill another person who is likely Elim, then we can see if they were defensive of a particular candidate - to that end, Alv is a useful candidate. @Alvron and @DrakeMarshmallow, I don't suppose you could retract your votes so we could kill Alv without having a ton of votes on him, thereby making his alignment flip useless? I think it's Drake and Alv, anyway - I have no idea what the correct vote tally is anymore.

Right. That's a lot of backlog to go through - I forgot how fast QF's went by. The worst thing is, I was skimming it because I'm at uni, and trying to listen to a lecture at the same time. Between Wilson and Gaea, I'd rather lynch Wilson. But I think we should probably lynch players for the next couple cycles - once we have a better idea of who the Elims are, we should go back to their posts here and . I want to vote on Striker, but I also don't want to increase the odds that their alignment will flip wrong - if someone could check whether Snip or Striker is in the lead right now, that would be great. Or, if someone could take their vote off Snip (which would have the same effect as me putting my vote on Striker, but without the 5% alignment penalty.) And... yeah, if my posting style is slightly off, or if I change my mind halfway through writing something, it's probably because I don't have as much time to go back and change what I wanted to say as I might normally - playing two games and going back to uni was a mistake.

Blegh... I'm paranoid now, but it's either chance (in which case it could be anyone), it's whatever's painful for the village (in which case it's definitely isn't Joe), or it's based on what Joe finds funny (in which case I think it's most likely to be Joe). So who knows, but I'll keep my vote where it is.

I find that amusing, because it's almost exactly the opposite of my own reads. Since the Inquisitor is a team of one right now, though, then you can't be protecting for anyone, so it's just interesting. The one person I agree with you on, though, is Snipexe. And I'd say Doc should be scanned.

Hmmm... I thought there might be a way of getting around the PM fee (opening all the PM's this cycle and then lynching Wilson) - but that's not possible. The main problem is that there's a 1/3 chance we just kill two of the constables and then we lose access to PM's and items and we still have unreliable alignment flips. I don't see any way around that though, so Gaea. I like my PM's too much - I'd also be open to killing Joe - I think it would fit Joe's sense of humour that we have to lynch him this game to have reliable lynches - he's also, kind of by definition as the GM, 'in the Elim Doc' as the GM. Actually, yeah. Gaea, Joe - I'm taking a gamble on Joe's sense of humour, but it's the only thing we've got beyond random chance.