Kasimir

Aeo, with all due respect, please get rest. I don't think people exeing you or not exeing you is going to hinge on you giving reads at this point, and one of the players who did get ??? over you, Neil, has explicitly stated he doesn't want to push you this cycle so you're fine. I for one regret ignoring that good tonal read in late D2 of LG98b but also am coming off having MLed you three games in a row so the read bar to actually push and exe you this cycle was always going to be higher in my head. Sure maybe you're E, that can be a later cycle problem, I'm cool with that. Like look. Pareto principle right. Do you expect tired reads to significantly/materially contribute to the Village or that a significant chunk of players here - apart from, IDK, Neil, Archer, Aman if not busy, Araris - will go over that reads list and engage with it, or be significantly informed by it? On the flip side, do you think that it's proportionally in terms of effort-reward ratio in terms of how much it can contribute to you not getting exed? Pragmatically, assuming you're V, there's a good chance you say something in exhaustion that just looks even more sus or gets taken the Wrong Way, which is even more counterproductive. Also like people need to stop it with the Orlok 'i gotta give reads/get contemporary to get back in the game later on though' like...just don't? Just show up, Christ, it's a lot better to have you here and now than slogging to slowly do it bit by bit.

I felt you were overcredencing some of your reads, actually, and I'm wary of overcredencing in players who don't typically overcredence often in their Village games. But I've also actually shifted it, believe it or not. I do think E!you can lay it on very thick when appealing to emotion - that raised my hackles in the MR66 PM before you did the openwolf claim. That being said, I did get a good tonal read off some of your earlier posts, enough to just kind of want to shrug and go on someone else this cycle. That and the JNV vibes Keep Bugging Me. Will Not Stop. I don't understand why everything from their second post onwards is bugging me and I think I'm probably going to spend more of my energy this cycle working out why.

Oh yeah, the dirty Village secret thing - I promised myself to be really chill in Archer's QF so actually I was awake for the EoD. I sort of knew I should do reads or stuff just in case I got NKed but really wasn't in the mood for it so went back to sleep and gave thoroughly zero crems. Can recommend. Felt so good

I'm trying to understand this with regard to your views on Aman's own predilection for reaction tests. But I don't disagree that the claim wasn't particularly believable, just on the basis of the context. With regard to 'sticking your head out is just asking to get voted on' - does this influence your assessment of the likelihood of E!Archer here? While I also appreciate the sentiment given my known antipathy towards/hatred towards being Evil, and definitely hope to have a chill/fun Evil game with you and Aman someday (still working on it, the offsite games are helping and I just came off a non-traumatising, chill Evil game so the jury's out on whether I can bring that attitude back to SE and fix my Village and Evil games), I'm sort of confused what motivated...this. Because I don't think I was under serious pressure or threat vote-wise, and the last time I died to anything not a NK was probably in 2018 or so. Though I guess the other site's probably trying to break that, woohoo. I am closing this browser tab if we're having a repeat of LG98b D1. I am done. I am not going to relive that ._. I'm not sure why you are overdefending right now. I know this is a you thing but I'm also not voting you right now. Devo has a train monopoly and I'm currently considering how I feel about that. Take it from AG8: doing analysis when dead tired gets you increasingly Pepe Silva trash. Cool, continuing to ignore this because I'm not having a constructive response to forming a likely alignment-sensitive read. I'd prefer not to. Part of the point is recalibrating your reads/what you take into account to how the player is, rather than asking the player to shift playstyles. I'm not asking you to not chaos, I'm asking you to not aggressively chaos at me right now because that is provoking a response neither of us will like if we're V/V. I'll add for the record that while I know meta reads are controversial and it's been weird shifting from an environment where I am completely meta-blind to one steeped in meta, I do think they play an important function in allowing us to control for player foibles and oddities. I think that's worth preserving in an environment where we want to allow playstyle latitude. If you don't like post caps, don't sign up for a light game of all things. MU doesn't allow post edits at all unlike us so you'd be busting that cap pretty fast. And no, to clarify, I do not play on MU, our styles do not vibe at all. (Sorry Neil, not trying to uh, shoot down your other forum. I just don't vibe with that place, I'm too chill for it ) If you don't want to, why do them? Not everyone has to play by offering a complete set of reads, and sometimes it's more aggravating to do so. My dirty secret is some Village games I just don't feel like Villaging. It just happens that players guilt me into doing it (not deliberately), or I know I'm about to die so I force myself into one more round of analysis to try to leave as much as I can for Village/in the hopes I can leave it in a good spot. And I really shouldn't do that either, but that's probably why so many SE players feel my E!tells are fairly robust. Mat tried to N1 me, yeah. So did Aman Aman I forgive. He's my bro and he just wanted to end my suffering instead of making me cry trying to make myself exe him or fight him. As Aman says, Meerkats are cute animals with dull teeth and claws, so I'm not really sure why you'd wanna C1 me! It all works out just fiiiiiiiine! I actually requested a pinch-hitter in LG98, jysk. There was none available so I soldiered on. And I did get one late in LG95 as a Villager, which was Stick's wild experience of pinch-hitting into a slot and...not getting sussed @Ookla the Bald - I know you work better by C3, but can you offer Aeo or Devo thoughts at this juncture? If not them, thoughts on how we should proceed with regard to the SK? (I'd prefer if most people avoided this question - I do have a reason for asking, but I don't want an answer to this from most.) So there are three sets of things I need to get done in the thread, but I'd rather not bloat this post too much. I'm avoiding giving a solid reads list largely because I don't want to redo it all over again after dealing with, to be real honest, the clusterchull on stilts that's Archer's reaction test. (I'll explain why I consider it a clusterchull when I get to it.) I can say I've got negative leans on the set of: <Aeo, Devo, JNV, Ravenclaw, Aman.> I don't consider Aman a player I'm willing to D1, simpliciter, given he's returning and I don't play with him often enough. 1. Reads 2. Archer's Clusterchull on Stilts 3. Contemporary vote analysis They're all kind of intertwined, I know, this is more a reminder for me.

So, a few thoughts: -I'll do my own lookover of the responses closer to my afternoon, or at least after the painkillers are a bit more effective. Just kind of still need a break right now. Neil - thanks, yes, I do want to factor it in, though I'd note I'd still take your primary response to be pre-reveal. -Part of my reason for waiting is that I do want @Amanuensis to chime in if at all possible because I value his thoughts especially on these sorts of things as it's directly in his wheelhouse. -Oh, absolutely fair, I just didn't want to come across as inadvertently talking you out of the read because I think it makes sense to me, I just worry all the same. Admittedly I should probably have been more careful with framing it because I realised it was coming through as some form of "STAHP NO" and I wanted to convey a more "I think this is too fast, but I don't feel that strongly about it to push, you do you, I'd just warn there's a really big error-bar, and leave it to you." -Fair. I think that's why I find the read intuitive, yes. I will say that E!Archer does this too, but I think there's a clear valence difference between how E!Archer and V!Archer carries this out. I'm going to withhold a read on Archer for just a little more as there's one or two interactions I want to watch play out before tipping my hand which I think will help me further get a tighter lock on this valence difference. -cf. Ravenclaw, which also feeds into the @ of Archer - don't disagree. The meta issue IMO is more Ravenclaw choosing to vote Archer and arguing Archer's motives are probaby Evil - I agree it's backing up Araris but they're not hiding behind Araris's reasoning, which I felt was crucially what their E!self did in the game I'm using as a comparator (LG98a.) Given this line of reasoning was raised in LG98b to later argue for them being Village, I definitely won't rule out metascrewing happening here. I agree it's hedgy, but that's the point I think - I'd've expected E!them to have backed down, or to have just said these made some good points and sheeped (this is using the LG98a baseline, so I agree it's a meta argument.) That's more what I mean by placatory - consensus position at the moment isn't exeing the SK sooner rather than later. After you and I both were disabused of the SK wincon confusion by Aeo and acknowledged the Elims were the bigger problem here, and JNV explicitly said the SK isn't our problem, they're cleaving against consensus here by sticking to their guns. They also hit against it early on by pushing on Archer for it, when everyone was just ignoring Archer. But FWIW, I don't disagree with pressure on Ravenclaw rather than Archer and I giving them an early pass because clarity is always good and pressure brings clarity. And I'll probably also re-read LG98a and b just to refresh myself on the nuances of Ravenclaw's play if I want to push this further. -I'm...confused about how you understand this the most (therefore agreeing with Archer), but the bolded bits don't, and you also have Devo as a prospective vote and I'm not sure if I just need more painkillers or I'm missing something. -While we are on the list of Drek I Do Not Understand, I don't understand how these two things go together: -Actually while we're at it, let's add to the Wall of Shame: Why for the love of Honor would you expect a freakin SK counterclaim what the actual hell. -Tbh: I don't disagree but am not as sold on SK!Aeo per se. Part of it has to do with the posts I'm questioning uh...one or two comment bars above this, whichever, I'm not really being chronological now I'm just going through the thread and whacking anything that catches my attention ngl. I'm not sure I feel Aeo is the SK but she's definitely in my pool. I'm trying to suppress it insofar as I think I've contributed to her ML in three games now, and I don't know if her chaos is adding to my persistent E!lean. As I said, it's a button I'm trying very hard to keep unpushed this game because it has been distorting my judgement. I do have other reasons for the read, FWIW, but they're largely vibe-based. -FWIW I think active players often get v-read here to some degree. I am willing to understand that, or at least put you somewhere in null+s first, but don't feel confident ascribing anything too strong with unknown error bars. IDK. Some games I'm more reckless about the error bars, this game I feel a bit more conservative, which might be the result of the last three games or so. I will say the ease of the read is a bit ??? to me too though, in context. I don't know. Coming back to this comment bar, on reflection, yes, there are probably games in which I would have ascribed you a very hesitant light Village and moved on with the knowledge I would probably revise it going forward. I guess I really just am in a more risk-conservative mood rn. -TFW I am now forced to either: a. sus JNV, b. question who this is and what they've done to Holy Ruin, Destroyer of Worlds and Elims c. ask @STINK to stop hacking JNV's account and just sign up like u should have all along smh -I'm curious if you've any specific thoughts on Raven ( @Ookla of Ravens - apologies for the ping, but I think tagging can help Neil sort identities out a bit easier.) -Does the fact we can win without interacting with it factor into your judgement call at all here? Moreover, in that world, aren't you losing one cycle of pressure on Elims, effectively costing the Village tempo? What's your assessment of that? -Right, Neil asked about FNG at one point - yeah basically. It's basically the one where you pitch your range differently so players underestimate you, and you can get away with it a bit because you're new (to the forum) which is the mistake Aeo's making here when- actually yeah let me get at that as well before I forget. Do you particularly expect the Elims or SK to listen to you? Like what's the point of this. Sart's not playing. But yes: Correction taken! Have been playing a bit on Discord as well and it's a pretty different environment from forum, for sure. Would be curious sometime to ask about how you find it v. forum, but don't want to throw the thread into a massive digression rn. FNG maybe not the best word here then since I was referring to it on the straight level, but Archer basically expecting you to believe it IMO requires you to be drastically inexperienced and I don't think that's the correct read here and am questioning why he even though it was the remotely correct projection. I think anyone who's played enough mafia meets enough liars to lose faith in all of humanity Well, no, I suppose, enough to doubt or at least have more 'tainted' reactions to reaction tests, even if they're pure alignment-wise. That should be it I think. I probably got ninjaed way too many times when writing this up >> Please tell me one of those times was Aman... Edited to add: Ah my bad - not meta, just substantiation of a situation in which I think outlier analysis helped to find an Elim in response to a reaction test rather than working on preconceived baseline responses. I do think it's worth having a projected baseline just to compare and set your own expectations. I just also think that also doing outlier analysis works a bit better rather than just picking up baseline deviations because your baseline can be pretty far off.

"ABANG ...Wow you really are holding a grudge from that time I shot you in the face aren't you. C'mon you murdered me with the utmost vengeance! Aren't we square now???" (Getting to everything else in a bit, I need the painkillers to kick in first, apologies.)

Just to be clear—I'm not saying don't push me to make my reasoning clear. Sometimes I just take it for granted and we get stuff like LG96 where everyone thought I was voting Archer in frustration when I was voting him due to a theory about the distro. If you gotta push me this game then you gotta. What I am saying is that I don't believe my past game thought process is relevant to my current game alignment. You can believe I'm eliding things or not in my discussion of past thought processes. If you don't want to believe I had that past thought process, then that's a you deal and you can ignore my posts on those rather than insist that's not what happened because if you don't think so, then clearly my posts on that matter then have no utility whatsoever. Do I think denying I have that process on the basis of the fact it wasn't articulated in the thread is real annoying? Yeah no drek because it took actual time and effort. But that's past game and my only motivation in bringing this up is I am not interested in dealing with a round of "but you never said all that about Tani!"

I'll also add, FWIW, as I'm tired of relitigating this point as it's come up several times and not just wrt my Devo read: I think it's pretty obvious that I don't share my full thought process in the thread because the thread doesn't need me doing a full infodump there, even if I do use it as a thought scratch table. I also think that sometimes raw thoughts are unhelpful because players can misunderstand your uncertainties, or even worse, it misleads Village after you're dead when you're really playing with rough working rather than solid thoughts. GM PMs take some of that load, as do PMs with other players. I also on occasion just incoherently ramble to Wyrm, Drake, and Stick. I also sometimes just don't have it written down, and get there because of iteration, i.e. by articulating variants of the same thought multiple times and slowly drawing mental connections or shifts. You can buy that I did in fact have this thought process, or that I didn't, I really don't care. But I'd like if we stop assuming that the only thoughts I have are the ones visible in the thread. I don't always articulate everything that's going on in my head when I vote or do things or express suspicions because, astonishingly, I have a filter and know it's not always helpful. I stand by my comments about outlier analysis being more helpful wrt reaction tests, even if it's damned hard to finangle. Hey @JNV, I'm curious: what is the current state of your reads rn?

I think the point isn't newer, inexperienced Elims per se - it's Archer treating the compulsion to immediately respond as the likely projected Elim response that doesn't feel quite right to me. But I'm also more or less of the view that outlier analysis is more helpful for identifying Elims in response to a reaction test - cf. TKN in the last AG. The difficulty is identifying the right set of outliers. FWIW it's why I asked Araris the question I did about Spiked #2 - Tani's overjustification didn't feel right for what was supposed to be a fairly kneejerk thought process and while she was buried within a particular strata of responses, her response was still quite distinctive. Will I run my own analysis on Archer's reaction test - probably, yeah, but not right now as I need to refresh my mind before coming back to this game. Since there's way more time to EoC than I was expecting, I'm willing to not rush this. Edited to add: To precisify - when I say it doesn't feel quite right, I'm being literal here. I don't think it's the correct response to project. I don't regard it as being negatively indicative.

I gotchu ThreadPMBro

I'd note here that Ravenclaw's E!meta (cf. LG98a v. LG98b) tends to be pretty placatory/deferring to majority opinion. I think Ravenclaw sticking to a pretty different position here is a good look for them. Plays on MU and a bunch of other fora. Really wouldn't take FNG as his baseline here. Disagree with this one, but it's why I voted Devo and referenced to a prong of a theory. Feel Devo is over-credencing and feel that emerges from potential TMI. Part of it I admit is that it feels way more clean than my own thought process: I kept going back and forth trying to work out if you were E or V. The V call here feels like it has less fog-of-war than it should. I agree there's LG84 where I also sussed/tunnelled Devo for it, but there, Devo and I both had clean non-fog-of-war inferences, and that's not my experience here. I wonder, honestly. I feel the lesson Aman taught was that the correct response is to bury yourself in the crowd or be a late responder - kneejerks are just bad for Elims. Was TKN not being sarcastic? It read pretty sarcastic to me.

I TRIED OKAY I TRIED

It may be, but right now it's flipping the 'chaos = Evil' button in my brain and if you're Village, it's a button I'd rather not have flipped for the third time, seeing as it's made me sus you pointlessly in I think three games by now.

This question was meant for Wiz, thank you. Edited to add: Gonna be blunt, Aeo, I feel you're laying it thick on the chaosplay right now and it's not helping my read of you. I'd rather not tunnel on you if you're Village this time, so I'd really ask you go chaos someone else and let me just do me because I really do not want to kneejerk vote you.

How exactly by the way do you expect an Elim to WGG in a game without PMs? Edited to add: Oh ffs I forgot this game is a MR I could've held off until Rollovet god I'm so sorry Archer my brain kept going 'yeah rollover is in a couple hours let's do this' my bad nvm.

I do think that's the point of the Lurcher - giving a shield to the SK. Edited to add: To be clear, from a game-design perspective. Hence the Lurcher preceding the SK on stretch goals.

My presumption is that it'd be announced, since that's standard practice. @Ookla the Destined?

Why? There was only so long Kasim could perambulate through the crowd of SE players. He'd never had much of a good memory for faces and while he dutifully tucked the dizzing array of names and faces away in his mind, he was pretty sure he'd have it all forgotten by the evening. So many handles he didn't remotely know. He really didn't belong at all, did he? It wasn't his time anymore. His time and come and gone: no one seemed to know Aonar or Twei (memories of hours sank into Aonar's diagrams in House Morinthe) and getting murdered by Araris in some space game he barely remembered, though quite frankly, he'd probably deserved it after getting drunk and shooting Araris in the face. Hael and Doctor wasn't around, and no one knew Jain either. What did you gain from this, Kasim wondered. What was the point of all of this? He made his way to the edge of the circle. Just to get some space from people. There was a commotion going on at the end of the hall. Nervous gasps, and chattering. Sobs. Something told Kasim it was going to be ugly. He reached the end of the hall, poking his way through the crowd and stared at the dead woman, the note taped to her chest. Kasim really, really hoped someone was going to call the police. There was SE. But this was real life. You had to do the legwork: forensics, interview connections, trace Elandera's last moments. Right? Somehow, though, he had a sinking feeling that some of the SE people weren't going to be reasonable about this.

It wasn't, actually, but you're free to think what you want. - Right, I don't really believe too much is gained by waiting at this point. @neil the beguiled - As promised: my additional thoughts were that I considered it was quite likely a reaction test, but struggled to determine if the POV was a Villager seeking Elims on the basis of assumptions about Elim behaviour, or an Elim seeking to flush out the SK, since Elims really gain from us focusing on the SK as compared to Elim hunting. Also targeting possibilities there since the Elims really don't want to waste their kill on the SK, and it helps them work out who the Lurcher might be protecting. Some of this was based on my initial assumptions on the SK's wincon and becomes a bit different in the current landscape but also depends on Archer's own assumptions of the SK. I didn't feel the point in highlighting it or being too on the nose about it because Archer's yelled at me enough times about letting him do him without getting in his way, and I've just come off a game where a player kept getting between me and the player I was trying to apply pressure to, so I just could not get a decent reaction/response at all. Having been annoyed by it, it didn't feel right to do it to Archer. Do I V!read Archer? Well, it depends on what he does with this. I can see a case for V!Archer, I'm just not willing to commit to it without seeing what he's going to do with the results. Part of why I questioned his Devo read and his asking Devo but not you - it's clear Archer is asking pretty much everyone who had a concrete reaction. (It's true he doesn't ask Araris, either, but Araris is gonna Araris.)

I feel like she does have a bit of a tendency with results TBH - granted I'm working off MR56 here and that's a little more different because Calamity but I was remembering when we were 'does not compute' with Devo's susses and how she got there. My MR66 read of her was based on pretty different stuff so I don't think I can comment on this too hard.

This is weird to me. I'd expect an Elim to be more confident about making a bad assumption because it's easier to just backmask their way to the right conclusion. Edited to add: That is, specifically, I think the degree of confidence in your being a Villager is too damned high, and more suggestive of TMI.

Tell me about it...I just realised your Raven/Aeo not E/E read was referring to Wiz and Aeo >> (I'd concur with it.) Yeah agreed. We've established where the SK is wrt Village wincon so IMO needn't do too much work for them right now. Probably worth hanging on to if the situation gets more desperate but that's a later problem. I mean, if you want to, you want to, right? I feel like my whole point of engaging you and arguing it's within Archer's range is... IDK how to put it. I guess I'd put it like this: I can see the intuitive pull of the V read and I understand why you're making it. I probably would too but for reasons I'm not mentioning, and the fact that I just got off a LG with Archer pulling a WGG, so am freshly-reminded he has a very high risk appetite and the error-bars for a risk/attitude read tend to be bigger for Archer. I don't think the game hangs on you reading Archer right C1 and it'd be kinda weird if it did. I guess my tldr; is if you feel strongly enough about it, it's probably worth listening to/holding your view because a bunch of people disagreeing is what makes the Village work. I bring it up because I think it's just worth putting it out there that this in particular is worth revising if you get other evidence going forward in future cycles because big error-bar. If I talk about it, someone will probably snipe me Edited to add: Neil, what's the basis for your Aman read?

Ah, but did you say you believe him thrice? So apparently the guy with the boardgame was Araris, which should've been pretty clear since he had no soul. Kasim wondered if he was still holding a grudge about getting shot in the face C1 but he figured it was probably something he was better off not bringing up. And anyway, hadn't it been forever ago? Yeah right. And Wilson (she didn't seem to be in this lot) was going to forgive him for teaching the filthiest crap to her phone's autocorrect. He circulated among the group of SEers. Pretty much no one had heard of his WildKarrde handle anymore, which, he figured. Times had changed, somehow in the blink of an eye, he wasn't an undergrad anymore, and no one really looked up old games anyway. Hael wasn't at Dragonsteel and the last he'd heard from Doctor, well. He tried to avoid that brief sense of loss, and turned instead to notice someone who was peddling an astonishing variety of quokka merch. What, thought Kasim, in the world.

I dunno bro, maybe this is what you get for lying aggressively enough times to have a rep for it

Is there a reason you think this is worth asking of Devo but not Neil?