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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. Kasimir
    Edited to add: H'okay, let's see. Earthquake is a complexity 4 weave, so that means raw success is 15%. Keep in mind Circle of Frost is also complexity 4. @The Unknown Ajah Can linked players concentrate? What happens if half the link concentrates and the other half doesn't? Or do you count on the basis of whether the player spending an action concentrates? Physical actions subtract 5%. Complexity 3 and higher weaves subtract 20%. For every example, I'm going to assume no physical action because not worth having that 5% involved. What this means IMO: 1. Concentration is required, if possible. (This means forgoing any physical action.) Concentration raises the success rate to 40% for weaves with a complexity higher than 3. This means, I think: 40% - 20% = 20% @The Unknown Ajah Is this correct, based on the rules? Holy chull that's really bad odds for Circle??? 2. Linking decreases weave complexity by one. So Earthquake becomes a complexity 3 weave. This means: 40% - 20% = 20% @The Unknown Ajah I think I'm applying a rule wrong somewhere, because you have an example with Lightning with a higher success rate. I still like the 4 player physicalblock but this looks like bad odds tbh. Let's try the contrast then: Harden Route: Harden Air is a bit more guaranteed, but: You can use the same Weave twice I think with not so many issues. So two Hardens gets you: Harden1 = 60% - 10% = 50%. Harden2 = 40% - 20% = 20%. Harden2 ain't great but Harden1 is still a coinflip. ...Say you link to do this. Linking reduces the starting complexity by 1. Harden1 = 85% - 10% = 75% (Complexity 1) Harden2 = 60% - 10% = 50% (Complexity 2) Harden3 = 40% - 20% = 20% (Complexity 3) You get half the physicalblocks, but better odds. The bright side is Harden Air requires 3 Air which is theoretically more achievable in a statblock than a 5 Earth. @The Unknown Ajah Does this remotely make sense? I think the rules are worse than law class Edited to add 2: Sorry Elan, I'd edit this but it'd just be long and I think I'd rather the weave maths be separate as I might need TUA's help here.
  2. Kasimir
    I'd agree with this but I also finished relooking D1 and other thoughts that lean me slightly in favour of V!Bee (sadly, Bee also did things that make me feel sus so slight is where I am atm) -Weird bandwagoning deviates from E!Bee tendency to sheep (+) -Not really solvy (-) -Weird fixation on rules or extra-game statements to avoid saying much else - reminiscent of LG99 (-) -Train stability - was lead train for a decent chunk of cycle and no one cared. Pivot with Stick and me and Stick is unlikely as Bee's teammate (soft +) -Warder claim (if true, Warder seems to lean a bit more V than E.) (soft +) Other things that came up to me: -Bee train stability indicates overall ok with vote spread. In a game with E!Forsaken, this is especially interesting because suggests general Elim dgaf (Forsaken's vote doesn't count so Forsaken pulling a vote with Compulsion is net weaker than E!Aes Sedai pulling a vote.) -Even in a game without an E!Forsaken, some amount of dgaf I think. Little train competition. Certainly possible an E!Aes Sedai decides to just focus Compulsion and votejack off the train I guess, only to get shut down by CadCom. -Mat or Stick asks why Bee has a Wierdo thing but doesn't vote Wierdo. Looking at the votes makes it pretty obvious IMO: ...Bee was self-pressing. You could ask why specifically Mat instead of CadCom or Araris, tbf. - Araris says this, which I don't really understand and would like clarity on. I'd also like to know why you wanted to wait for responses if you weren't interested in presenting the analysis anyway. -I don't super like this post: This is in response to CadCom saying: I tentatively like this. Yes, I have CadCom as V for the Circle reason, but I like the wariness anyway. Mild Village points because this screwed me over with toph (Draaaaaaaake.) I guess the main thing I don't like is...yes you're allowed to defend your trusts but isn't the whole point that there wasn't much to go off at that point?
  3. Kasimir
    I don't think we should go into a locked D2 by any means. It's a waste of tempo and will suck even more if, e.g. Bee's Aes Sedai gets hit tonight or something. We just shouldn't be wasting time.
  4. Kasimir
    Sure, then let me tighten my phrasing - I didn't vote a Village read, which should be the bare minimum, and you claiming I should be prescient enough to correctly foresee Wierdo's alignment is a bad faith perspective. At this point, it is clear you are in a tunnel and determined to take the worst possible construal of what I say, so I'm not interested in further engagement. There are two types of roleblocks in this game. The kill is a physical move - so it can only be physicalblocked. Weaveblocking does nothing to it. (There's a world in which the Elims have the statblock to Fireball but tbh if this is that world there's less we can do about it.) It RBs four other players (I believe you choose.) Specifically it's a physicalblock, and the kill is physical. Aes Sedai using weave tracks, weaveblocks etc can still go through. It's only an issue if Perrin is in this game because Perrin is a 2x scan but that's a physical type move. Edited to add: Nope, Illuminator also gets to use a physicalblock + weaveblock but that's physical-classed. This game is freakin' Pokemon on stilts. Edited to add 2: Specifically: I don't see anything with a roleblock here but it's good to still keep in mind that there's two types of actions in this game and an action's type determines which slot it goes in, and what actions can stop it. There's a bit of an asymmetry between physical and weave actions because there are way more physicalblocks than weaveblocks. Lower level physicalblocks also explicitly don't stop the kill: And this is specifically Earthquake which seems pretty value-for-money but likely needs a link to reduce complexity and someone with a high Earth statblock.
  5. Kasimir
    The night is 48 hours. There's no point in not trying. Edited to add: Basically we might as well discuss rather than waste the Night. Do you think you could do me the courtesy of putting your image in a spoiler box so I don't have to deal with page loading issues on my slow mobile? Me: "I voted for Wierdo and would probably have moved Aet onto Wierdo instead of Wierdo onto Wierdo" Aeo: 'iNTeNtIOnAlLy mIsLnYnChiNg tOwN' I like that Aeo thinks committing to your vote is problematic and also expects me to know the alignment of people I'm voting for Edited to add 2: If anyone has the stats to, I'd recommend linking up with willing partners to do an Earthquake. I don't have the Earth stat for this but have been trying to find people who might be on board because A. the Villager gets the advantage in a link so their alignment is not the worst thing in the world, and B. either blocking the kill or neatly removing half the game from PoE is a good outcome for us IMO. Edited to add 3: Specifically, it's 4/7 players who could not have made the kill. Throw in yourself and it's a 50% shot at the Elim who made the kill from your PoV. And if the kill doesn't go through, it might be withheld or that all Elims were physicalblocked, but it's nice to earn tempo anyway!
  6. Kasimir
    I will say even without it I'd probably ascribe some credence to the claim just because I don't recall seeing Bee ever do that under pressure and Bee doesn't really seem the aggressive fakeclaim type? IDK tbh. If Warder, then I think odds of E!Bee drop a bit for reasons already discussed last cycle. I guess what I'm thinking aloud about is: do we need the claim? I almost feel like as a choice of fakeclaim, it's the sort that needs a teammate to prompt. I've a similar line of thought on the veracity of CadCom's claim with regard to the potential for it to hit a wall with someone using a water weave. BEDIT: I guess where I'm at is I'd still prefer corroboration but feel like we can at least make some guesses based on the claims as they are.
  7. Kasimir
    Edited to add 3: I would argue it's better on CadCom tbh - if Aet is going to flip Forsaken, which I refuse to think too hard on in my tired state rn, CadCom's the obvious shot tonight to deny a Village clear.
  8. Kasimir
    Edited to add 2: Tbh anyway Forsaken-hunting is fine but also a distraction from Village work in that it shouldn't be done exclusively. Arguably I got overexcited because I thought it was indicative of something but the numbers to me just exclude Aet from being the Forsaken, which means it's back to work, one way or another. To sharpen my point for CadCom - votejacking just transfers a vote from one player to another or activates a vote that was deactivated. This is why I think looking at vote totals bring clarity. It's indisputable we have a vote total of 8 unless I was so tired I couldn't even count properly. If you want to postulate someone else was votejacked, you can, but then you have to subtract Aet's vote, and then that doesn't match with the claim that I votejacked Wierdo and reactivated that vote. You can suggest I'm lying, but I was not roleblocked, and when I flip, it'll be clear I wasn't lying, so you just gotta deal with those numbers ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add 2: I can make a PM with you. There's a default PM action that doesn't involve weaves as I burned the action last Turn. This is why I can also confirm I was not roleblocked, and probably half the game with me. I used two physical actions - the fact I can make PMs indicates my Wierdo action also went through. 1. Fair. Wrt water actions, is this across the game or a person? @The Unknown Ajah 2. Well, fair enough, and I agree it matters. I am the Amrylin Seat, yes, which is why I also intimated D1 I didn't mind dying as my death means any V!Keeper can auto murderise anyone else who scans as the Seat.
  9. Kasimir
    Is there a reason you care? Feels potentially sus to me. I claim the votejack. I don't see what that has to do with you as every Aes Sedai has a votejack and Amrylin Seat is not a saferole. If there's a Forsaken, then where does the extra vote come from? I did one votejack. There are no missing votes on any other train. Prima facie, if there is a Forsaken on the 4-train, there should only be 3 votes. The fact there is 4 implies that there was at least one votejack. If there is a Forsaken on a 1-train, then there should be some train with fewer votes. There isn't. In general, there are 9 players. Aet did not vote. Drops that to 8. It would be 7 because Wierdo didn't vote but I votejacked Wierdo. Back up to 8. In a world where there is a Forsaken, we drop from 8 votes to 7. Ignore the separate trains. This is the raw votecount. Minus one for Aet, minus one for the Forsaken. 9-2=7. But we see 8 votes in total when we add them up. Therefore, for us to see 8, there is either: A. No Forsaken (9-1 with 1 being Aet) B. A Forsaken (9-2=7 but brought back up to 8 with an Aet votejack.) You are welcome to show me other worlds I have not considered. Edited to add: I don't believe so, no. Aet's vote just neatly covers up for a Forsaken in any world that the Forsaken votes. I think I've done the maths right at last (and I think the benefit to the maths is I don't have to break my brain over the trains as I think the specifics were causing me confusion when tired) - the vote totals mean that we are either in a no Forsaken world, or a world where Aet was specifically votejacked to cover the Forsaken. Anything else is just weird numerically. But given I have multiple posts swearing it's right this time, I welcome people who can show something I've missed.
  10. Kasimir
    Don't think your vote or lack thereof changes it too much. Pretty sure it looks like you got votejacked. I recognise I have made ten (10) dubious statements over the past hour but I stand by this one. (Until I realise I screwed myself and really should go sleep and leave this mess to someone else to parse.) I don't think we have a way of making sense of the votes as they stand unless we assume your vote was hijacked, which means you can't be the Forsaken. Currently trying to pre-sleep parse just one last time to confuse people less (sorry): -Aet probably votejacked. Hard to make sense of no delta without it. Any other player being votejacked should leave a clear deficit with a 0-vote train appearing. -Aet being votejackable implies Aet not Forsaken so it doesn't matter. -We cannot ascertain on the basis of the trains where Aet's vote went. It could easily be used to cover up a Forsaken on a solo train or by a Forsaken in <Stick, RBM.> -Aet, in the world you vote, we probably see a zero-vote on your train which isn't very helpful either since we now know you are not the Forsaken (though potentially still Evil.)
  11. Kasimir
    I've concluded Aet can't be the Forsaken because there's an extra vote on the train we don't have the numbers to account for. In a game with the Forsaken, we expect 8 votes in total. With Aet not voting, unless Aet is the Forsaken, we expect 7 votes. (If we take my claim to have votejacked Wierdo on face value, Wierdo flipped Aes Sedai, therefore Wierdo's vote absolutely counted.) There are 8 votes in total, which means someone's vote didn't count. My problem is that if we postulate anyone on the 1-trains (you, Aeo, Araris, CadCom) votejacked, it doesn't explain where the extra vote on the 4-train comes from - there should be a 0-train in this landscape but there isn't. And in a world where Stick is a Village Aes Sedai or an Evil Aes Sedai and votejacks Aet, we should see five votes on the train, not 4. The pivot from RBM to Wierdo also happened late. I feel like this points me to something being wrong with someone in <Stick, RBM.> With RBM making a Warder claim that can theoretically be substantiated, I'm looking more at Stick. I think the only way we get a 4 train in this world without insane votejacking mathematics requires a Forsaken in Stick/RBM to votejack. (E.g. Say you are the Forsaken. You votejack Aet onto you. Ok so why do we have a 4-train on Wierdo? If no Forsaken, why do we have only 8 votes total? If you postulate anyone votejacked, we should be looking at 9 votes because Aet switches from no voting to voting Wierdo, and I made Wierdo self-vote (sorry.) The only world I guess is something like Aet is an E!Aes Sedai and riots himself onto Wierdo...but for what purpose? How would Aet know the Wierdo pivot was taking off? Aet was just flexing??? And again, in the E!Aes Sedai Aet world, there should be 9 votes. There are not 9 votes. ) Correct me if I'm wrong. Also @Araris Valerian as the maths guy. Edited to add: Screw me ok I'm tired we actually do get this in the world F!you votejack onto you I think??? Three for each of us and the extra votejack ffs. I am washing my hands of vote mathematics and going to sleep for real this can be someone else's problem I am this done with it.
  12. Kasimir
    Deep breath. H'okay. Someone correct me if I'm wrong - this looks to me like the only place you get four votes is if someone votejacks Aet, because otherwise you get a difference somewhere. They can't have won me in a votejack 1v1 for Wierdo because if there's a Wierdo war, then we have 3 votes on this train, not 4. They can't have votejacked Mat, RBM, Araris, or CadCom, because if they did, where's the extra vote come from? Off the top of my head: 1. Is there even a Forsaken at all? It's an assumption we were working with because mech is beautiful but let's look at the numbers: We have one extra vote on Wierdo, and no missing votes on RBM, Araris, CadCom, and Mat. In addition, Aet didn't vote. I votejacked Wierdo to Wierdo, so expected to see 4. In any world where one of RBM or Stick is the Forsaken, they basically have to votejack from Aet onto Wierdo. Here's why: mathematics. If they votejack from Wierdo, presumably either nothing happens (in which case there are 3 votes on that train) or we get into a weird votejacking war, which still means there should not be 4 votes. If they votejack from <Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom>, the result is we should see a 0 train. But there is no 0-train. Therefore clearly the missing vote (barring further votejack shenanigans) should not have come from any 1-train voter. Essentially: -RBM, if truthful, cannot votejack. Warders cannot use weaves. -Stick might be able to votejack. Cannot be discarded as a candidate here. -Forsaken in <Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom> does not explain extra vote - where does it come from? Whose vote got hijacked such that they still have a single vote on them? To me this points to several likely conclusions: -Extra vote had to come from Aet. Basically no other way about it I think. Someone lmk if you find a place the extra vote can come from. -Aet can't be Forsaken, simpliciter. Can still be Evil but no Riot involving Aet should've gotten off the ground in Forsaken!Aet world. -Unless one of <Bee/Stick> votejacked, I'm obviously not the Forsaken either. -Extra votejack onto Wierdo is a bit weird tbh - if the player was offline and didn't see the last minute Wierdo pivot, then why specifically votejack to Wierdo? This doesn't really make sense to me as a move. -This could suggest there's no Forsaken in the game but some of the oddities accrue around Stick, I think. (Basically unless someone else claimed to have votejacked onto Wierdo (who, why?) - it really looks more E to me. Like...suppose the E didn't come on near EoD pivot. Wierdo is a side one-train, why Riot to Wierdo specifically? Doesn't do much and feels like weird flex because Wierdo's not the guy you pin on. But I need sleep.)
  13. Kasimir
    I'm not going to work this out, I'm calling it a night
  14. Kasimir
    Fair. Then it's 1 or 3 to me. I'll go with the Aet read for now but I still want to hear from Aet - the night is still young.
  15. Kasimir
    Ok, I'm willing to buy that line of reasoning but I'm interested: do you really see that as not being viable at all? Because I kind of feel like you specialise in running Elims wouldn't do this! plays and that feels to me like the kind of level I'm wondering if Aet is playing on. We've specifically talked about putting negative attention on whoever who has a missing vote. Edited to add: For what it's worth, I do not believe I was blocked.
  16. Kasimir
    I feel like you should be not really mad about that because it was Wierdo or you bro >> @Stick. Not fully sold on E!you tbf just based off the missing vote, but the way I see it there are three levels here: Obvious level: one of you/Bee are Forsaken and did not votejack (??? why not??? did you also move Wierdo by any chance?) Less obvious level: It's Aet. Added Aet point: I don't see how you say: And also not vote, not even a holding vote. Even less obvious level: It's someone in Araris/CadCom/Aeo/Mat who votejacked off you/Bee and onto their train to look Village and sus you/Bee with an Aet bonus.
  17. Kasimir
    Primary suspect atm is Stick. Secondary in Mat, Aeo, Araris, CadCom. Considering worlds in which E!Stick chooses not to do this and it feels a bit odd. Honestly would consider E!RBM as well but E!Warder??? (Guess RBM could be lying but this is why I considered whether we wanna ask for corroboration or not.) Edited to add: This is why I am now sussing Stick: Wierdo was supposed to be a 4-train but now it's not. I'm not referring to GM info here - I'm referring to the fact I votejacked Wierdo onto Wierdo because I didn't want Mat to die. (If I'd actually been thinking I'd probably have votejacked Aet onto Wierdo but it is what it is.) This is also why I say I consider that Stick and Bee potentially could've made the vote save in time - I managed to switch from getting Wierdo to vote on Bee to Wierdo to vote on Wierdo. There are probably worlds in which this is one of the 1-trains screwing around or Aet Soothing someone in <Stick, Bee> - off the top of my head, I'm not sure, but I figured I should share with the class as there is a missing vote.
  18. Kasimir
    Stick
  19. Kasimir
    ?
  20. Kasimir
    Draaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaake I'm now considering the odds there's no Forsaken in this game, but Aet didn't vote, and therein lies our problem. Edited to add: I wouldn't clear Bee or Stick here depending as there's enough time for them to theoretically have sent in a covering order IMO.
  21. Kasimir
    I don't want Mat to die more. Wierdo
  22. Kasimir
    i tried
  23. Kasimir
    god. WIERDO ihatepivots shutupdrake huskyscrem EDIT: @The Unknown Ajah WIERDO NO SORRY WRONG COLOUR I'M VOTING THANKS
  24. Kasimir
    EDIT 2: Like this is you basically saying that unless this is E!Bee pretending to be the Warder in which case V!Warder should cc Bee, Bee probably sounds V if this claim is true?
  25. Kasimir
    Edited to add: 1. Referring to the game. 2. Am leaning moderately to the notion you and your Aes Sedai need to claim together. I think there's a world where you are just two Elims lying together but I lean a little against it given the circumstances and I've had my thoughts- Yeah but the point is still that it looks more like V!Bee on this basis.
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