Kasimir

My point isn't the presumption the kill moved. It's the presumption it was on Raven, which is incredibly specific as a call to make and no one batted an eye.

EDIT 2: Will probably go back to nap a bit since the husky drama is settled. I am still looking at <RBM, TUA, Weaver>, predominantly TUA. TUA is largely for EoD lurking coupled with a disconnect from events (needed to be @) and the hypothesis the Kidpen kill was put in late. Theoretically the kill could be put earlier but I feel that since Aet, Spark, Wierdo, Cash, and a whole bunch of people were online subsequently, they should have noticed Kidpen train taking off. Aeo made a post I'm too tired to find that stated the kill moved from Raven to Kidpen and I'm not sure why this has been accepted at face value because why should anyone know anything about where the kill was, only where it ended up? I'm curious about the lack of advice from RBM's teammates, but that really is a team comp issue as well so I don't know how confident I feel here. The Aeo interaction raises a few question marks but fails to tick a few other key boxes. I'll puzzle through the rest on a bit more sleep.

TUA went for me C2 or C3 (can't remember exact cycle) of LG99 and hit TJ N1. TJ was basically somewhat peripheral and was one of two Aeo voters so IMO this is why I've stated I would not rule him out of a Kidpen kill. The team included Aet and RBM. Gonna just post this because I'm still sleepy and mobile sometimes messes with me. EDIT: The point here IMO is that it shows that even when calling the kill, TUA doesn't always open up with maximum aggression.

I'll like you to think about the fact I just woke up and the time gap between my posts and stop @ing me while I'm trying to catch up with the thread because the last I logged off, no one was voting you so why are you once again overreacting to whatever is going on?

Wtaf did I wake up to

Best of worst options from my POV. On my re-read, felt RBM was who I wanted to push but pretty much all the NAs went to bed. Then Kidpen showed up around the point I'd begun to rethink and figure Kidpen was Village (around half an hour to EoD) so that gave us two votes - since I felt Cash looked Village enough I didn't wanna D1 him, the main option was Raven, Spark, or Wierdo. (If we made our own train, it would've gone to a dice roll, which meant endangerment of one of my V leans so not a train I was cool with.) Nothing about Spark's C1 especially pinged me, and while I didn't like Wierdo's vote, I also kind of felt undecided given later Wierdo response to you, so I went for Raven as the CW I could most live with ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ By the time TUA re-showed up (he showed up at least twice but did not respond and needed a ping the last time) and it was clear we had the numbers for a new train, it was last two to five minutes of the cycle and Kidpen wasn't down for another pivot at last minute and if we didn't pivot together, it was pointless, so I called it a day and hoped for the best. Edited to add: Dude, only I, TUA, and Kidpen were on at EoD, unless an Elim was browsing offline, and even then, they'd probably have to submit the kill via GM PM. I know this because I kept trying to hunt for numbers for a pivot so I was paying close attention to if there was anyone in the thread I could @ and ask them if they were willing to pivot. If you're theorising an EoD Elim, then it basically has to be in <TUA, me.> Edited to add: Would almost argue Kidpen's suspicion of Bee seems unlikely - Kidpen was resistant to swapping to Bee, and in a world where V!Kidpen susses Bee, as compared to no real Raven read, he should've been pretty much 'lesgo' on Bee.

I go back and forth. Agree with Aet that I do like Weaver pushing back against Aet when I re-read that post. At the same time, I feel Weaver initially had an opportunistic vote on Kidpen before moving off and onto Aet. I feel it's a strangely/fairly decisive vote for a player who is verbally hedgy/reluctant to ascribe reads: Part of it is also just being at a loss. I could see joining Archer on TUA but I firmly believe we're at the start of the cycle (theoretically, as the NAs begin to wake up) and it would be extremely destructive for me to just vote TUA instead of opening more trains, voicing suspicions, and seeing what comes out of it. I noted the Kidpen kill is a little weird and Weaver, Spark, Cash, TUA are potentially some of the players I could see going for such a kill. tldr; I'm voting for someone I feel eh about and who could've made the Kidpen kill.

Weaver???

Oh yeah, what motivated your Spark vote? I asked you about your switch as you said this and moved from voting Raven to Spark, and I'm trying to understand your thought process:

Ignore the bit about forcing the Elims to choose between losing tempo or shutting down Village comms. They don't get a choice about the matter, the Raven message network will exist regardless of their feelings on the issue!

Belay that: I'm extra-cool with the High Priest having an indestructable line of comms if Village!

Gonna note that it's especially advisable for a High Priest to do so. Since Raven has flipped Village, he's basically cleared, so he can run interference for you. I am not fully sure if he can be killed again but I'm cool with forcing the Elims to choose between wasting tempo or allowing Raven to set up a line of comms from the High Priest to the thread.

Yes, and what's wrong with that? I ignored my sense that your play was different in favour of the lack of protective voting in the LG - as such, I'm more inclined to respect that read this time around. You are suspicious of Archer for...? 'Cause I'm not saying a particular thing about Archer at present. I'm trying to understand if he meant he retracted from you since he felt you were just leaving, or not.

Didn't you say you were discounting that because you felt Bee was just leaving?

Shovel shuffle Day One Voting: [RAW] I'd normally accompany this with close-reading of posts but I've theoretically already done this, so I'm gonna try short-cutting this process using Tallybot to retrieve the vote steps to look at. [BROKEN DOWN] Summary: -Wierdo and Cash not likely E/E (cross-voting, stable trains.) -Likely at most two E in <Spark, Kidpen, Wierdo, Cash> set due to stability and shifts. -Everyone except Spark voted, which indivates our Elims are on multiple trains. -If the shot on Kidpen came late, the likely suspect is TUA. If the shot on Kidpen was called early, it was likely called any point from the beginning of the cycle to RBM voting for Spark as the cut-off. This may indicate the Elims just checked out after that. -NK fails if it hits the exe victim on D1, so there's further incentive to deconflict. -I do not believe a veteran made the shot. This is largely because it's considered poor etiquette to shoot a returning player (or new player) on their first game. I...do not think Archer made that shot because he would have been aware of this: I can't say for sure TUA would not make the shot as TUA sometimes is /shrug about it. I think a Kidpen shot could be within TUA parameters though I'd be surprised TUA didn't go for Aet. (He didn't C1 me the last time.) Aeo is inconsistent. I think anyone else could very well make that shot. -However, the choice of target is not consistent with a raw new player. This leads me to consider a more aggregated profile, including Weaver, Cash, TUA, Aeo. -Where's Ash when you need him to NKA Edited to add: Your disengagement reminds me more of the LG than the QF. I felt you seemed more interested in solving in QF70.

Mind elaborating?

Think he did actually. Here:

Kidpen feels like the kind of shot we can get timing off. I was pushing for Kidpen in late cycle and at the two-vote point, Kidpen came into contention. Likely indicative Kidpen was either marked for death prior to this, or during the end switch. Noting that the killer here didn't consider this was Kidpen's returnee game. Accidents do happen (hi JNV) but it makes me feel Archer is potentially less likely to have held the knife. Similar sentiments for TUA but weaker. Unclear about how much Aeo cares about this. This isn't really helpful as the teams would be high on new players regardless and less familiar with this form of etiquette, but worth highlighting. Edited to add: I'll go ahead and vote with my heart first: Bee. If I fill in some early credences... Bah. I'll come back later and do full vote analysis. I don't feel this slice alone is helpful because we had stable trains for a decent chunk of the cycle, so have to examine each slice from the start. Need some caffeine.

E/E how? Hmmm. Okay yeah I don't trust getting this done in one minute sigh.

Edited to add: Wrt Raven there's something V!Raven does I haven't yet seen, but that being said I'll willingly acknowledge it's honestly a 'eh we lack numbers' kind of place therefore best of remaining trains deal in my head.

What's your RBM views, real quick? Your thoughts, or are you currently at a 'nope nope no touching this' (fair) place?

Ngl, this is why IDK if it's a strong basis for a read. I don't think it is, but I kinda feel if you were Elim, this would be the thing mentioned in the doc as it's a biggie. Sigh. I do not like the Raven train overtly, but from what I can see, it's the most realistic one for numbers and I dislike your train and Cash's more. I guess there's always a return to Wierdo, but... Edited to add: @The Unknown Ajah, abstaining this cycle?

Are you interested in a joint swap to Raven? I don't feel you or Cash are good pushes for today. For Cash, it just has to do with the sense the misunderstanding felt genuine and pushing to exe a Villager on that basis doesn't feel like an Elim opener. Edited to add: Honestly my personal preference is RBM after the re-read but I don't think we have the numbers.

Edited to add: Carrying on. May have lost a decent chunk of my post so crying on as well -I feel I would not be willing to push Wierdo for that retaliatory vote + opportunistic wagon hop in a normal game. However, this is a high new player game, which means discarding to some extent meta views and the D1 semi-death is unusual. I'd add the vote has already been called out for being a sheep vote, and sus vote is sus. (In a V!Wierdo world, I would argue the Elims are likely to stay off that train. This reasoning partly extends to a V!Kidpen world as well IMO - the play here is to decline the train, let Villagers take it, and then yell at the Villagers for a patently bad ML afterwards.) -I feel Archer has some reads inconsistency here. Normally I would intuitively regard this sort of inconsistency as being more Village-indicative and- bah, no, it doesn't really change the read I've ascribed Archer but godDAMN am I grouchy about it -Lmao -I can confirm the fastest way to drive me insane as a Villager in a game is to...not NK me and then leave me questioning my one (1) job -This is the second statement from Kidpen that drove me wild. In response to Cash, Kidpen says: I question this, because I don't understand how you can take the C1 exe of a Heretic to be an auto-loss for Village in terms of the rules, and am wondering if this emerges from an Elim perspective slip. On further thoughts, I think I have a way for this to make sense, though IDK if I am trying too hard: Given the context, Kidpen is arguing if the wincon was really to eliminate all but one Elim, then voting out a Heretic C1 on a three Elim team means we lose since the other two become Lovers. But I just struggle to make coherent sense out of even that because why is a 'eliminate all but one' wincon even in question in the first place? YO @Kidpen I see you just showed up, so was this what was going through your head? -I don't disagree with Archer's conclusions but didn't need the wall of text to get there. Drake's a screwy murderchucker and I just came off a game where HE TOLD ME I WAS A VILLAGER AND I WON WHEN I OUTNUMBERED THE ELIMS where he ran an E!Seeker and a smaller-than-usual E!team so this is very much up his alley. -I don't understand this: If you see conflict aversion as being Evil, then why would you assume a vote on RBM is likely to be Evil? - GET YOUR OWN SALMON SMDFBH -Weaver/Aet not E/E. -I kind of go back and forth here. I'm willing to defer to Aet's V!read for the moment as I don't feel strongly about what the appropriate Weaver profile is here but feel there's enough room/possibility for Weaver to be the sort of high-reactivity player that would push back this way. This one is more something I'd flag not to sleep on in subsequent cycles. -Easy target here. The dark part of my brain that whispers paranoid thoughts is now fixating on RBM. Ah, fy faen, this is not helping <NO> : Aet, TUA, Archer??, Cash???, Aeo <OK>: Spark, Kidpen, RBM, Raven, Weaver, Wierdo Say I give Kidpen credit for the ??? about the rules and drop Kidpen. <Spark, RBM, Raven, Weaver, Wierdo> Ok. I can make this a four-way by voting Raven or I can decide the exe...

Hnnh. Archer wasn't wrong about my being on at rollover, though this implies Bee and Aeo's timezones are likely to overlap it. Thank Dawntrue for PC. Thoughts on Re-Read: -Dislike Bee's lack of engagement. Suggestive more of E!Bee - compares unfavourably to Bee's earnestness in QF70. Reserve right to change view later but this post reminds me we haven't heard much from Bee. -Still feel Archer pulled off Bee a tad too early - which is ironic given Archer's post. Have other reasons to lean V!Archer (cf. the distro talk - theoretically easy to conceal inability to Elim hunt in distro/mech talk but I'll give Archer credit for highlighting the HP issue as it's still an assumption new players in particular make too easily so it's worth reminding the room.) -Agree with Aet read, though am basing on different factors. Proactiveness here theoretically a good sign but not inclined to overcredit Aeo for it. Potential element of Aeo overcredencing herself; question of TMI and Aet flags this. -TUA flags RBM. What about them, @The Unknown Ajah? I've laid out my thoughts about a tentative mild V!lean on the basis of TUA's suggestion of exeing me. (Ha. Words I never thought I'd say.) I don't disagree with the E!range issue and Archer's rejoinder but I'm comfortable sitting on an asterisked weak read for the moment since it helps me formulate my C1 preference thoughts. -I don't feel Kidpen deserves credit for being ambivalent about the options. This is sort of where I am on this particular specific issue wrt Aeo moving between nominating Archer but also thinking she shouldn't exe a Villager. The part I kind of disliked and had an exchange with Kidpen about is here since theoretically speaking, it's really less severe on wincon for Village than for an Elim. Kidpen points out it does affect wincon, and I agree it's technically true, and give it a break. -This post got me a bit on the V!Aet train. Both in terms of denying easy towncred (I'll agree some Elims play that way) but also because this is a clearer refocus on the need to exe an Elim and the first direct pushback (IMO) that we've seen since the idea was floated. -Weaver's 'NO U' retaliatory vote here makes me consider a high reactivity new Elim profile. It may not be the correct profile. -Archer's post makes me realise I missed this from Kidpen. Considering the odds E!Kidpen doesn't know about the Lovers feature. Not impossible as Elims do derp, but the post is timed at 0127hrs and the cycle started at around 1500+ so huh. Maybe I need to reconsider. -Don't strongly disagree with Archer on this one. I'll look up Raven comparators after this. Posting this in advance to catch TUA since I had a TUA question and would like a timely response.