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Kasimir

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Everything posted by Kasimir

  1. Kasimir
    So why me? This has got to be the most wasted action in an SE game ever as I can't actually perform any weave without a link. Cursed statblock is real. Joke aside, I question the use of a Shield - it prevents weaving but we're primarily interested in E!hunting here. The only world in which this is useful is if you think I can fireball. The point is the physical action side of the house. Shield is much more niche in comparison, and I'm trying to understand that mindset. Translation: "I actually did not tell TUA I was concentrating but my balefire succeeded anyway"
  2. Kasimir
    TUA said this? Edited to add: Hello @The Unknown Ajah my old friend! I've come to ask you this again!
  3. Kasimir
    Who'd you target, and why didn't you Concentrate? It's a free success and a 40% roll otherwise, worse if you were taking a second action. It's not implausible but it's odd to me. Edited to add: For that matter, why not Harden Air or Trace or Delve?
  4. Kasimir
    Literally the beginning of the cycle: "This is lylo or a step from lylo" Half the game: "Time to be gnomic!" I swear I wanna come back after sleep to find y'all hiding a redcheck or something and doing the good old Rollovet strat because if not, I can only conclude it's not just a lack of WiM issue. Edited to add: For this to have failed, Aet was either weaveblocked or did not Concentrate. There's no way Aet fails a complexity 3 weave otherwise. If Aet didn't Concentrate, then I'd wanna ask what you were doing with your physical action slot.
  5. Kasimir
    That's kind of my point - that I think it has to be either Myderaal or Blademaster. I don't think we have a Keeper in this game, but either way, I'd normally assume the point of my role is to offer cover for the Forsaken in a Keeper scan, similar with BM, but we're not really seeing duplication here. The other issue here is that there's just...a lot less tankiness than I'd expect. Again, we don't know Wierdo's or Aet's statblock, but the statblocks are just weird. Bee doesn't really count as a protect role IMO because Bee can only self-protect or protect Aet and if the Elims really want Aet dead, it's easy, as Devo showed us: Seal Aet, kill Aet, done, and chain-kill. Edited to add: Pretty sure Araris's role was why he suspected a two-Channeller Elim team though. I'm at the point where I might need to consider revising my thoughts on the issue.
  6. Kasimir
    What action was it? And interesting in what way? Stick is claiming to have balefired Araris. It is moderately likely she is telling the truth given Araris being Lord of Luck, unless TUA rules that balefire cannot overcome Lord of Luck weave immunity. You say it is unlikely that TUA let the Elims have an Aes Sedai have the Fire 5 Spirit 5 statblock for balefire. Doesn't this commit you to the belief that Stick is Village for mech reasons? Edited to add: I mean just to spell it out - no other weave kills Araris this way. That much is pretty clear. If there's an actual balefire shooter not Stick, they cc her here and we exe an Elim. If TUA replies my question and says that balefire cannot kill a Lord of Luck, it's clear Stick is lying and we exe her. In the absence of that, if you think the Elims can't have a balefire statblock, aren't you then implying you are committed to V!Stick if it all checks out? Edited to add 2: Tbh considering the odds of a Myderaal or Dragon in a game with a Blademaster. Edited to add 3: Wow the thread is so happening right now.
  7. Kasimir
    Edited to add or ninjaed who knows: I agree there's an element of familiarity with the game meta to a Blademaster claim but given Bee's struggles to formulate suspicions and play, I also kind of wonder if Bee would be able to metagame enough to make a Thug claim and gamble people would back off.
  8. Kasimir
    So you V!read Stick then? What did you do last Night, btw?
  9. Kasimir
    Blademaster is NAI - you just have to resolve the Thug if the Thug is sus.
  10. Kasimir
    For the record, if TUA let the Elims have a freakin' Aes Sedai with a statblock for Balefire such that even Lord of Luck is useless in the face of it, and I don't even have the Spirit stats to Shield, imma be so bloody done >> Edited to add: @Aeoryi Why no action? A physicalblock could've come in useful tbh.
  11. Kasimir
    But you wanna open the cooking today? I think the only two teams Bee works on at this point is Bee/Aet (assumes lying about the Warder) or Bee/Aeo. (Refusing to speculate about myself, but I was third voter on Bee so I guess I don't work that good either.) Stick pushing Bee to force a threadclaim and then backtracking off is extra unnecessary drama - I agree E!Stick is screwy but that's Drake level husky single brain cell.
  12. Kasimir
    Keep in mind Bee and Mat are very much not-teamed - Mat froze his vote on Bee D1 (second Bee voter) and Bee CWed on Mat even when you tried for a Wierdo pivot. If you believe E!Bee, that worldview entails E!Aeo. Edited to add: ffs Kas this is why you read the damn thread instead of coming here half-cocked
  13. Kasimir
    In a way, you feel self-resolving in the worst possible way due to balefire swinginess blocking a NK. Hard to see you not being removed as part of Elim PtV. I think Compulsion essentially neutralises my votejack, as does a physicalblock. Edited to add: I guess they could always try to Shield you.
  14. Kasimir
    We are, but not at this cycle unless you are Evil, in my view. I'm saying that if we do go after Aet and misexe, that could if RNGesus hates us push us to 2/2 and then a Night loss. Really depends on what TUA means by 'when Village can no longer win' since I guess my votejack would mean that if I don't die at Night, then they can't brute force the exe. It gets screwier because suppose the Elims queue Compulsion, etc etc, since you can theoretically multi-weave. Coinflip battle. I'm saying it's break glass point in my head but my internal threshold is a tad bit higher because of the potential dual kill. If this is misguided, then yeah I'm cool with being talked into it. Speaking of though, @Aeternum, you did any weaving last Night?
  15. Kasimir
    Edited to add: Resisting the thought that a nice counterpoint to Amrylin votejacking would be Elim night dominance >>
  16. Kasimir
    Something I've been mulling: do you feel there's a pragmatic case for resolving Aet near lylo? The thought being that if we are at lylo, then resolving Aet is no big deal anyway because even if V!Bee dies, lol we were screwed anyway. The issue I have is that I don't know I want to artificially bracket <Aet/Bee> for the moment. Sort of where I'm at but less so. Bee's all over the place for me but I leaned V on the basis of a few factors last cycle, but not overwhelmingly so, and it does involve the Warder claim. Aet just kind of replied and said 'Interesting' which is one of those times I'm like 'bro if you got a better read on Bee, help me out here.'
  17. Kasimir
    I'm getting QF64 flashbacks, whichever it was, the one we all spiderman point memed and it was TUA all along. Which is to say I just don't feel comfortable with my view of the game right now. Edited to add: Going to see if I can sub some of this back into D1 and see what comes out of it. I recall you or someone else sussed Bee for being a bit too quick to feel the case against Araris was vacuous. Gonna look at it especially since Araris took quite some flak. Edited to add 2: CadCom feels like the obvious doctrinal shot here IMO. Don't feel there's a lot to be gleaned off this NK - CadCom was lead Village read for everyone on the basis of the D1 Circle of Frost.
  18. Kasimir
    Possible? It's a net zero, but would almost make me wonder if there's more tankiness built into this ruleset. Putting our cards on the table: CadCom could Heal but can't self-target. You and I both can't Heal, and if we link, this gets chancy. There's a chance we screwed ourselves over with the Wierdo pivot ig. I'm choosing to believe TUA might have annulled statblocks that were overly kayana so... ??? Like the Warder self-protects and protects an Elim so most of the time their protect is useless in this set-up. The Elim is never going to kill you because they hope their death will take you down with them.
  19. Kasimir
    But it's still a weave. That's why I said it's like the proverb-story of the unstoppable spear and the impenetrable shield: which one wins? Lord of Luck specifically says no weave affects you. Edited to add: You were too powerful But yeah honestly that's also what I'm hinting at. Essentially since you can Balefire, I think that essentially means one unstoppable Elim kill if you're Evil. Even worse in a V!Aet landscape because with some luck, you get a 2-for-1 shot there. I do feel it is weird to give the Elims this level of power and this makes me lean Village but it fundamentally depends on TUA's RNG doctrine which I'm not too sure about, but also...the balefire ruling. If he says balefire overrides foxhead, fine. If it doesn't, then to me the only way Araris dies is by NK and then it makes me wonder if you balefired CadCom instead. Balefire being unstoppable should mean that nothing else, including redirects, stops you. I just feel it's not intuitive to me balefire should beat weave immunity because it's weave-classed. But I could see a ruling to either effect.
  20. Kasimir
    I'm holding my vote pending a clarification from TUA. Edited to add: Tbh let me spell it out. TUA has stated Lord of Luck is immune to weaves. You killing Araris with a weave is then odd. I'm aware there could be extenuating circumstances so I am asking for a ruling. I don't see another kill role in this game, so if Lord of Luck is immune to all killing weaves, then I am voting for you. There's a Chinese proverb-story for this:
  21. Kasimir
    I'm of the view we should do it as everyone's more or less claimed except Mat and Aeo. Also numbers are dire, and Araris IMO was an avoidable casualty given verifiability, and that's partly on me. I'll admit here that my main reason for V!reading you is in part the fact you can kill, but that really depends on your views of how committed TUA is to going with RNGesus's statblock decisions. My thoughts on our situation: A. You know the element-sized problem with our statblock. If Aet is Village, we need Aet on board weaving because that might make up for our deficiency. B. 4 v 2 right now means I have to say straightforwardly that we enter a losing position if you are Evil and we don't exe you today, given some parameters, largely to do with Elims having two NKs, and Village not actually in a position to block. C. All of these point to me that a massclaim might as well happen.
  22. Kasimir
    Stick..... >> That's like famous last words... CadCom won the link unfortunately so my heal didn't go through. RNGesus having it out for me this game. Doubly annoying because he probably had results.
  23. Kasimir
    I wanted to remind you though - Amrylin is not in fact a good guy role (it can be either alignment) and I'd argue the votejacking here is neutral, just consistent with my reads. (Edit: To precisify - I had Wierdo in nulls so was willing to switch off, but my main priority was not killing Bee, because Bee looked more likely Village to me after the claim, and not letting Mat die as Mat was the next CW and he seemed Village to me too. I did look at Aet but felt bad about D1ing a busy Aet, so followed onto Wierdo. Votejacking Wierdo was mostly to not create an unnecessary zero on a train and get people sussing that player unnecessarily since I hadn't planned to claim unless something was off. I'd've preferred Aet if I registered Aet wasn't voting because that might be more informative of whether Aet's vote exists or no.) TUA has considered E!Amrylin distros before, as the mastersheet of LG88 shows. Forsaken is basically an E!Aes Sedai + role IMO. It's hard to say whether it would exist (Araris leans no right now) but my claiming Amrylin has effectively meant Aes Sedai is the only Forsaken claim route left, due to CadCom (if we are all in collusion then you are thinking of a team of three.) @Aeoryi According to the clarification from TUA, odds of a linked Earthquake or a concentration Earthquake are both 40%. While I would prefer at least 50% odds, it's not the worst. Multi-Harden Air stack would be: Harden1 = 85% - 10% = 75% Harden2 = 60% - 10% = 50% I've checked and Harden3 is a bit too risky, and decreases the odds of Harden1 and Harden2 as well. Edited to add: In general, my view is there's no utility from linking to Earthquake or any complexity 5 weave if you are village. I only ask because I personally cannot do that weave due to a cursed statblock. Linking gives you 40% success odds but you might as well just concentrate. You then aren't at the mercy of what your partner wants to do in a coin toss, even if the Villager has an edge. Edited to add 2: @Aeternum If you are an Aes Sedai, what are your plans for tonight? I hope you will still be sending in actions if you are Village. Edited to add 3: I think where I am at the moment: V: CadCom, Bee V-: Stick, Mat, Aeo Null: Aet, Araris I am not sure Aet is a hit, and I don't like everyone has the same tiers thereabouts, as that indicates potential groupthink. Aet is in my nulls largely because I read Aet's posts and think Village, largely because of how much Aet isn't trying right now but also think of the striking playstyle difference and think E. I can't decide if Aet's flatout no WiM is just Aet really hating an Elim rand, or you know - just what it says on the tin, and E!Aet would try harder to be placatory here. Edited to add 4: @Araris Valerian, @Stick. Why did you both 180 on the Forsaken issue, btw?
  24. Kasimir
    Araris has suggested this in PMs. His reasoning is it's too easy for the Amyrlin to discover by votejacking. Not sure how true that is, but I guess anyone with Compulsion could also discover? Either way, I did check LG88 and noted that none of the distros had Amrylin and Forsaken together. Edited to add: Would also advise to take all the calculations there with a pinch of salt because Araris and I disagree on how to read the complexity tax rules and I'm not sure if this is the ruleset getting shifted from LG88 or if I'm mistaken about how complexity tax works. This also has implications as if I'm correct, there are about 3 forbidden weaves which can never be performed in this game because they're mechanically impossible, and there's less incentive to link for high complexity weaves because you get the same success chance as if you just concentrated. Asking about all that, but this highlights the high number of uncertainties present at the moment, sorry about that. Ideally this should have been something I asked about before this game when we were going over the ruleset but I rejoiced when Araris told me I didn't need to read the weave rules and now I am paying for it, mea culpa >>
  25. Kasimir
    Lol sorry. The summary is that I need TUA to confirm for me. But assuming no one in the link does physical actions, the success rate should be 20%. TUA has it as 25% in the example so I'm waiting to hear from him. I'd note CadCom's Circle also had 20% odds of succeeding so IDK if that changes my view of D1 or not. So I found an alternative: If linked players use Harden Air instead and triple up the weaves, again, assuming no one does physical actions, you can get three physicalblocks off at: 75%, 50%, and 20% respectively. I don't expect block #3 to succeed but #1 and #2 look okayish. You are probably committing to half the size of an Earthquake but it's not the worst at this game size.
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