Kasimir

Good time to switch. Stick Have fun with the race!

@RoyalBeeMage Simply put, since we know what roles are in the game, and no other claims have been contested, these are the ones unaccounted for: <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, Drunk, Oracle, Kandra Spy> That's five roles. Three NPCs, and two roles extra, which have both been cced. Stick and Aet both claim Kelsier and TUO and Coffee both claim Hemalurgist Troublemaker. So one of each pair is lying, and of the remaining roles, three are Elim. It cannot be that all the Elims are NPCs - at least one must be a real role (likely two.) So that's how the PoE goes. I'll add that you, me, and Drake have corroborated each other independently, and you and Aet are in a position to corroborate LightRinger's claims. No one has cced Aeo, so this means our problem pairs are once again <Stick, Aet> and <Coffee, TUO.> Likely one player in Coffee/TUO is actually Village - the issue with Stick/Aet is we don't know how many of them are booby-trapped (i.e. we lose if we vote them) but they're probably not Village.

It's news to me, since Stick's one of the suspects here. You chose to not scan a second player?

You can scan two other players, not just one. Who else did you scan? I did swap with Drake yeah, we ended up spiking each other so we are both Rebel Spiked now. Lerasium Spiked goes first on OoA then Seeker so you would've seen me after I copied Drake but before we copied each other.

Who/what did you scan? Claims-wise, Aet and Stick are both ccing Kelsier of all roles, Coffee and TUO are arguing they are both the Hemalurgic Troublemaker, Drake was the Rebel Spiked, I started as the Lerasium Spiked, Aeo is tacitly claiming Hazekiller, and LightRinger claimed Matchmaker who paired you with Aeo as Lovers.

Just you. Stick and Aeo are ccing each other, as are TUA and Coffee. We know there are three NPCs as well. Edited to add: Stick and Aet I am a menace when sick

Not sure. What's your role? Almost everyone has claimed and we need to try to solve this.

For Stick's implication that Aet is now Kelsier to be true, Aet had to be a Village info role last night who chose to troll over reporting results even prior to knowing he was switched. Doesn't seem very Village tbh. Reiterating that we know what roles are in this game and which are not accounted for. Anyone who wants to offer alternative roles needs to show how this maps onto CadCom's distro.

If you're still Kelsier, us voting anyone but you makes you lose anyway, so that's not something you'd be down for if you reasonably believed you were still Kelsier. Edited to add: I'd also expect a bifactional push against you if: A. The liar between Coffee/TUO is Elim B. Therefore is aware of who really got switched Since us voting you also causes them to lose.

? Edited to add: Stick and Aet insisting they're both the real Kelsier continues to suggest demographics-wise that at least one of our Elims are there. Continuing to tap the sign about there being no Village reason for the <Oracle, Drunk, Seeker> to not claim here and help fill out our picture, which in terms of the existing ccs, implies Royal is Village so one in <Aet, Stick> and one in <Coffee, TUO.>

They aren't told, which is why I think info roles matter. I'm not disagreeing with breadcrumbing - I'm saying you keep shifting in terms of how much credit you want to take for realising role change is possible. Edited to add: Specifically: converts are not told but due to OoA, Spiked, Seeker, Oracle (I think - this one's iffy), Drunk should be able to work out if there was a convert/who. Edited to add 2: In a world where the Spiked are not, you know, apparently spiking tf out of each other.

It's definitely possible, depending on balance. Something that interests me is we haven't had an Oracle/Drunk/Seeker claim yet because these guys are our main insight into swap shenanigans or conversion shenanigans. (As a side-note, Aet brought up the prospect of conversion in a non-Villagery way IMO.) To reiterate: Our playerlist is nine players long. Straightforwardly, we lack a claim from @RoyalBeeMage - what's your role? Non-straightforwardly, one in <Coffee, TUO> and one in <Aet, Stick> is lying. This means that of our remaining set: <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, Seeker, Drunk, Oracle, Kandra Spy>, three are NPCs, Royal is one, and Liar (Coffee, TUO) and Liar (Aet, Stick) makes up our last two. Some trivially true thoughts: Unlikely that <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, and Kandra Spy> are collectively NPCs. This would be a no-win situation for the Village since our win condition is tagged to exeing Elims rather than not exeing Villagers. (Or to put it another way, we can win if three people die and two are Villagers, as long as at least one is Elim.) Royal is the only plausible player for <Seeker, Drunk, Oracle.> This is because these are Village roles and Liar (Coffee, TUO) and Liar (Aet, Stick) would be doing something fairly anti-Village by lying here while actually being those roles. Slightly risky for all three to be non-NPCs. (I am less sure about this.) This is because in the worst case scenario, LeaderMin converts someone, and I duplicate LeaderMin and convert someone else. This gives us an Elim team size of 6/9, since the NPCs don't vote. To be sure, there are in-between scenarios, but I generally feel that giving the Elims a larger potential voteshare can be risky. I have anywhere between a 1/3 to 1/4 chance of converting. Some of this does depend on whether I'm added to the Elim doc or not. Our liars are in <LeaderMin, MinSeeker, Kandra Spy> (trivially true I suppose.) To me, this is suggestive that RBM is a Villager. There's a Kelsier!RBM world I think but that's also a world we don't want to touch - basically stipulating E!RBM requires us to assert that one of the liars is a Villager and that doesn't make too much sense to me, especially because they would have one of three crucial info roles. At least one of <Seeker, Drunk, Oracle> must not be an NPC. This is because Village needs info on shenanigans here, and these are all info roles. Arguably, mine and Drake are, but I'd consider us half-info roles because if our win con changes, then the Village doesn't get that info. Edited to add: @DrakeMarshall - See, the thing is, you and I and the Seeker are actually fairly high on OoA so while you and the Seeker can catch LeaderMin hijinks, only the Drunk and the Oracle can really identify what happened after switches. Edited to add 2: Oh hell. Wait. This really means neither of us got converted huh. PRAISE THE JA! \o/

Sounds delicious ngl If sour But good keep your hands off the salmon Isn't this in general something you just wouldn't know unless you're the Oracle? As I mentioned, I fully expect(ed) her to pass it off as a reaction test. I'm just not giving points for it. I'm not really thinking about play skill here - I'm thinking about the likelihood a specific player will fakeclaim. In general, SE players so far struggle at the E side of games like BotC and ONW because they're not very claim-happy. This has led to the need for a specific E playniche when running a game like that. Taking that background into consideration, I'd normally expect players to be bad at aggressively fakeclaiming off the bat, which gives you Village credit for claiming early. However, in light of the fact ONW familiarity means I expect you to also know an Elim just has to do it, and you also have comfort fakeclaiming (not just SK Sanderson but also IE in the last game), it's my shorthand for "I can't just give the Village credit for an early claim because E!you would know you gotta do it.) There's a similar asterisk for TUO which is why I said what I did because I also expect him to be willing to fakeclaim here. It's...a bit unusual for his play, I'll give him that, but quite possible. Bruv aren't you E!reading TUO's cc off the fact he said 'tentatively' Reading into in what sense?

Interesting because I would have expected Aet to have just pointed to the Lovers claim. Sir was it a seafood pizza

I guess my take is I just don't see the logic in it because it's not clear to me where the disproving here comes unless you think a Seeker did a scan. Not impossible but they really should be scanning in the NPC roles, but that's my hot take. I didn't, but more Coffee read will also help me work on this issue because if Coffee just seems generally Villagery, then that's fine too. While ONW and BotC are more roleclaim heavy, I think we need to remember basic Village play principles still work here and we shouldn't neglect them either. I think my mentality just is something like "if you're claiming because of lack of time, but you have plenty of time for thread presence in defending your claim and pushing back against TUO consistently", then something rings false about the original reason for suddenly pushing the claim? There are, I agree, plenty of mundane reasons for it, but it was the other thing I disliked about the claim. Ngl I spent some time trying to work out if I had a better chance of being a Villager if I tried to peek at an NPC role instead, but no real luck. I finally decided to target you since either you would be Village, we'd be Elim bros, or I'd get to have put you in the bloody loltastic situation of enabling a multi-Kelsier rampage I admit your game is what made me wonder if Kelsier was even an actual PC role to begin with. RIP I will pour a cold one our for it.

Comments in orange. Brb need to reboot my brain Joining the pizza corner

Well, two points I guess: First, I don't disagree but: If they aren't told about the swap and you aren't told about their role, what sort of lie could you possibly catch them in apart from if they claimed HT? The fact the HT doesn't know the roles switched and players don't know they were switched means that the main value of HT is forcing players to react to the prospect of a switch, no? Otherwise you just don't value-add to the claim situation. The other half of it is that claiming has one point of value, even before committing to a claim, potentially, that you don't get in a regular SE game, which is that if you made a V/E switch, the former E has more incentive to out themselves, and they wouldn't do that without knowing they got switched. It does open a can of wyrms wrt Troublemaker lying but SE is new enough to ONW minus Coffee and Araris (IMing) that I don't feel higher level HT meta is an issue here? Wasn't thinking of that but this: Not wrong on the activity front, but the 'not be able to claim later' makes me raise my eyebrows a bit in terms of Coffee's current thread presence. But also, yeah, @Coffeecat, apologies if you already answered this and I missed it but you implied you found neither Stick nor Aet Villagery, which is what prompted your claiming: Can you elaborate on this a bit more?

Thinking aloud: In terms of reaction tests, it makes more sense to claim/lie about who you switched in the hopes it forces the players to out themselves. Coffee suggesting she wanted to wait for them to out themselves seems to indicate she's not aware they're not told about the swap. I'd expect CadCom to have mentioned that to her though? I'd normally consider role unfamiliarity a mark against the player's claim veracity, but also, TJ's damn QF >> There's one other point that was giving me pause and that was wrt to Coffee claiming early for time reasons.

Yes, but that has implications for Coffee's alignment and his view of Coffee's alignment? In ONW they're allowed not to do it AFAIK. I feel the smart move for HT here is actually to lie about who they switched (and sometimes not switch at all.) But at the same time, in the wise words of Pokemon:

Why wouldn't he be invested though? It directly affects him because he's one of the people Coffee claimed to have swapped, so there's a personal interest angle. I'm not reading it as defending Coffee so much as trying to nail down his view on the switch because it affects how he wants to proceed this cycle. Like if he thinks Coffee is lying, then he's committed to the view he wasn't swapped, in which case he should wholeheartedly continue with his OG wincon.

ngl it would be really funny if Coffee were fakeclaiming and got the real Kelsier to claim and gaslit him into thinking he is no longer Kelsier

From your POV, since Aet and Stick were not swapped, what are you theorising?

@DrakeMarshall: This was the moment that tonally reminded me of Coffee fakeclaiming against me. I don't really know how to describe it but it was like SK Coffee was absolutely incapable of letting the claim sit and had to keep pushing the fakeclaim. Dude has a point.

You did fall for the Merchant one but the one that stuck with me was your figuring out her vig claim was a lie. I'd've pushed her for separate reasons but not for the vig claim.

Fair. I think I just mention because my issue with Lily was not yours so I trust you to smell claim lies differently from how I'd approach it. I actually find it more indicative Stick might not be Village, i.e. validating your Stick/Aet probably a Kandra/Kelsier swap theory. In that I don't find Stick's play here really all that consistent with how an actual starting Kelsier would play IMO. You can argue that Kelsier wants to not be too blatant, but I think Stick has the skill to finesse it and isn't. ngl I caught a flu again and I'm still tired so I read this as "I may no longer be Kasimir," had a double-take, and realised I probably need more sleep