Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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GM has to make all PMs. If it was gotten C2, it was made C1 by someone who sent in an action. All PMs are made at the end of the cycle by the GM. Issue is just that we have either an unaccounted for D-G (who cannot be Sja) or two envoyspren (because if Tani is truthful, and to be fair, you are at least agreeing with her) - then we have two known PMs which were created C1. I ascribe low credence to D-G existing because we've seen far too few PMs for this, but could be mistaken. As of this point, we have a mysterious Drought PM (cycle unknown) which both Az and TUO deny having (was it with Araris? Don't know), Tani-you created C1, and TJ-me created C1. My personal suspicion is the Drought PM was more likely to be created C2 because Drought was more active then. One possibility as to why we've stopped seeing PMs is a PM creator got converted and is using their action slot for the kill, so cannot make PMs. To recap, D-G can create up to four PMs with one action. Envoyspren can only create one PM with their action. I'm ascribing slightly lower probability to Tani being a PM role because I don't think you'd make a PM you ddin't intend to use. (So, agreed.) But that leaves the smokespren (Soother) and Sja unaccounted for, unless there's something we're missing, e.g. one D-G allows a final slot for any role. All this assumes everyone is truthful. Edited to add #2: When I say 'unaccounted for', I mean: "We have seen evidence of these roles in action so they must exist, even if we don't currently have claims for them." Xino's vote was Soothed C1 and the only role that could have done it was a Smokespren. We know Sja exists in this game. And we know that given the existence of two PMs created in C1, this logically entails either D-G or two envoyspren. Since we don't have a Tani claim, it's possible to match what we know of her against the unaccounted-for roles. That's the angle I'm taking. I think we have to lynch Sja. If we don't, and Sja has enough charges, the conversion should still carry on, which penalises us unnecessarily. Moreover, a lynch burns two Sja charges, while a Cher kill [=Coinshot] burns one charge. If we make Sja run out of charges, minimally she can't convert - if we get lucky, she dies. Mat targeted xino C1, and Mat claims not to have been roleblocked. There was also a missing vote on xino C1. This means several possibilities: xino could be the smokespren and was redirected to Soothe a vote on himself xino was roleblocked (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else xino was Sja who converted (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else xino had no action to send in (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else. tldr; we just don't know. Sja can't be roleblocked and Mat's ability is a dup- huh. That's right. God I'm a bloody moron, as Wyrm would say. The ability is a duplication, not a redirect. In other words, if xino was the smokespren, and Mat targeted xino C1, we should have seen a double Soothe. The only reason/situation in which xino is a smokespren and we don't see a double Soothe is when xino was targeting himself anyway (which, to be fair, is possible), so: xino could be the smokespren and was dupli-redirected to Soothe a vote on himself, but was already Soothing himself xino was roleblocked (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else xino was Sja who converted (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else xino had no action to send in (Mat would not have been told this) and the Soothe came from someone else. Edited to add: Oh, you're thinking of doubling Cher and lynch on Sja. Not a bad idea - I guess it's the trade-off between getting the convert right and also draining Sja or doubling down. Off the top of my head, can't tell which is the better strat. Edited to add #3: ...Squirrel. It's with Squirrel isn't it. He who claims to watch. Squirrelwatcher. Drought had a PM with Squirrel.
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If anything, I think we should strategise/play as if we're in [WORST], obviously, but pathwalk for a series of more realistic options because we're trying to not mislynch again this time around I'm convinced that either way, we need a good Sja candidate and a good convert candidate. Cher has to hit the convert, and we have to lynch Sja. It's better for us if we can lynch Sja because that burns two charges as opposed to one, which could be crucial to us keeping any edge we gain from a good Cher kill. And if we happen to actually kill Sja, so much the better.
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To be honest my main issue is if they wanted to go for a control play, since they were killing Araris, the best conversion target is either you or me, and I sure as hell wasn't I can see why you're not dead, mislynch issues aside - R-S is only deadly on an odd cycle, so you're kind of a C5 problem rather than an immediate one. I...am a bit at a loss as to why TUO thought claiming Moelach was any better than Cher. I absolutely agree Cher would be a target, but Moelach target scans. That's...kind of a bit more problematic for the Elim team, potentially, than BAM? Unless maybe they're hoping to fakeclaim or we were narrowing down on Sja. IDK, I'm thinking aloud right now, More work stuff so I can't update vote analysis until later. I guess I'm not deadset on you being converted unless they were going for a control play. If we're looking at roles, TUO would've been a better shot, because Moelach/Cher is alway an immediate threat. This cycle, you become the threat because if we end up with a next cycle, R-S once again can duplicate. But then why don't they want a control play? We've seen hints of this with the TJ kill, but eh. That's why I think it doesn't make that much sense. Tani being a PM role is weird - you'd make a PM, but don't want to use it? I can see a few other possibilities here, but eh. Smokespren is odd too, but not impossible, though I have another smokespren candidate (xino.) That leaves some other role or, just really, Sja. I'm starting to think there is no D-G because we have way too few reported PMs for an active D-G. I don't 100% remember either. Everything else requires the Araris timestamp, which I'll pull up later. It looks better for C2 me and C2 you as well because we were both on the cycle late to react. I think the rest are all dead and flipped Village though: TJ, Illwei, Elk. The interesting question is whether Chantara was before or after, which can be referenced against her Elk vote. I have some recollection TUO was on as well, but I have no memory of Az, Elan et al being on, which makes sense. Edited to add: @Ashbringer, is the list of those on inactivity warning publicised?
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Based off the clarification from Ash, this matches what Archer said. If Az is truthful, then Tani visited Illwei. TUO has claimed Cher and the vote manip wouldn't appear. One possibility that cannot yet be excluded is that Sja was trying to convert Illwei, but Cher got there first. I'd like to hear about this. Tani for now. @Archer— Of the living, I claimed stormspren C1 and am down to a life, Mat claimed Re-Shepir C3, Az claimed Moelach C4, TUO fakeclaimed Moelach C3 and Cher C4, and then there's you claiming Nergaoul C4 That's about it. We know that there is either an unclaimed D-G or two envoyspren, and one unclaimed smokespren because of actions. Elan is not Sja but could be converted — she was scanned C2 by Araris before he died C3. I have also been scanned C1 so I am not Sja but could be converted. Fakeclaiming won't be a big challenge for Team Sja as due to player numbers, no role is guaranteed. Drought flipped vanilla. @Matrim's Dice — It's a fair point if we are in [WORST.] and as long as you were not converted C3. But I wonder. (No, genuinely.) The delayed Araris kill is off to me. I wouldn't be surprised if we're in an intermediate scenario between [WORST] and [BEST]. I'm obviously obligated to claim I wasn't converted but that's what puzzles me. If I wasn't converted and you weren't, what gives? I can understand why I'm not a kill or convert priority but I can't see why a Moelach claim wouldn't attract a kill. Or R-S a convert. Is it a time thing? Because you and Araris claimed late in cycle. Which means they didn't react in time. And Archer can't answer this but why vote on Elk but vote manip Illwei? She was okay with either getting lynched I guess. You checking on Tani is interesting too because we know she didn't kill C3 then. Edited to add: Interesting in light of the fact the last remaining known role options don't look too great for Tani if she's capable of visiting Illwei.
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1. @Azmine_king, what did you see on the other cycles? 2. @Ashbringer — Suppose Tani is Nergaoul and removes Araris's vote on her and shifts it to Illwei. What would Moelach see if Moelach watches Illwei? 3. Painkillers are best invention. That and caffeine. 4. Assume for the moment that Mat, Az, and TUO are truthful. Then, out of <Archer, Elan, Squirrel, Tani, xino>, we have either: <Nergaoul, smokespren, DG, Sja> or we have <Nerg, smokespren, envoyspren, envoyspren, Sja> Tani and I/TJ both received PMs in the same cycle. Drought's PM might be with Az—Az, can you confirm if so and which cycle? 5. If we're in [WORST CASE] as I modelled earlier, we actually can't lynch Sja today. Well, we can and should but it's complicated. We lynch Sja and she survives and is down two charges, the night kill goes through. 4-4. Game over. This is only a good scenario if we have a good convert candidate, whom Cher should kill. Then we lynch Sja and kill the convert and go to 4-3 next cycle with a weakened Sja who can't convert. If we are in [BEST CASE], then lynching Sja means she may not survive, depending on charges remaining. Either way, Cher has to shoot well. If Cher is Village. Edited to add #2: I feel like the two envoyspren scenario is more likely. It's a bit weird for there to be so few PMs if D-G has been active.
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Getting this off my brain so I can sleep in peace -.- 1. Reads to me like he's saying he had a PM with TUO. If we can get confirmation of which cycle it was created, that'd be good. 2. [WORST CASE SCENARIO]: C1: Convert -1 = 4 C2: Convert - 1 = 3 C3: Convert -1 = 2 On this assumption, Sja now has three converts, with an effective team size of 4. If so, we are now at lylo. A mislynch or a successful kill from Sja will put us at parity, and we lose at parity. If there's a break glass and claim time, I suggest it is now. (If someone else has info about how we can know we're not at the worst case scenario, appreciate it - then we can ignore what I'm saying.) [BEST CASE SCENARIO]: Sja has two converts. (Assume that the Tani cycle had no conversions, either because of Sja making the kill, or because Cher killed Illwei, or that Sja's charges are insufficient because Sja hit three Unmade.) On this assumption, effective team size is 3 versus our 6. If so, a mislynch, a successful NK, and a Cher miskill brings us to parity and also loss. On the one hand, this sounds like a break glass case either way you cut this. On the other hand, we're looking at a 4:5 or 3:6 ratio here. It should not be impossibly difficult to find Team Sja now >> Goodnight for reals now I've got the maths off my brain.
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ffs @Azmine_king - What was that about? Will input Drought and Araris into the votechecks accordingly but that's a tomorrow problem. Edit: Before I go back to sleep - what was so important C2 that Araris (loyal BAM) was left alive and unconverted? Possibility Team Evil not on to change orders in time? B/c even if there was a kill order (TJ) and votejack order, no kill on Araris. + Surprising loyal Moelach + loyal R-S left alive - surely bigger threat than BAM? Unless??? Goodnight. Tomorrow problem.
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@Azmine_king, you have your response. Anyway don't count on anymore near-to-rollover psychopathy (?) from me. I brained my head against a desk lamp when trying to fix a cable and I've taken painkillers because it's still hurting. Bleeding a bit but that's scalp wound issues. I'm not up for serious analysis and will probably go sleep as soon as the painkillers kick in. Will blue if required but I've stated in previous games my default policy on bluetext. Edited to add: @Araris Valerian, @Matrim's Dice - Thoughts on Chantara? (I know, Mat might not be able to see this.)
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TUO Drought
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Issue is that depending on how you define end of cycle, most of the activity comes from me, Illwei, Elk, TJ, possibly Chantara, and Mat. That's 3/6 we know are Villagers, due to flips, if we put me as a ?. Extreme end of cycle just involves Elk, me, and Illwei, but without that activity, it would likely have been Elan getting lynched, and we are 2/3 Villager there minimally because of Elk and Illwei's flips. (4/6 and 3/3 if we assume I'm Village, which my analysis up there definitely did.) So I think it's easier to work from what we know, which is that at least half, if not majority, of end of cycle voters have flipped Village, and ask what that says. I think if we assume this scenario, then we're left with one of Tani-Araris-Mat being the convert. Illwei and Elk have flipped Village, and most of the countertrains seemed to be motivated by both Araris and Mat trying to avoid getting lynched. I've already broken my brain trying to work out if one of them is Elim. I'd like to hear from more people
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Ah yeah my bad re-read this cycle, Squirrel has it too. But I'm definitely guilty of complaining I have an eh read of Drought so I felt I should own up. Nice, and yeah I'd agree. Xino targeting someone else makes a bit less sense anyway since there was no outcome to be changed, and it's not something that exonerates him from being Sja. But I think - provided you were not told your action failed - xino took an action. If xino was roleblocked, or if xino failed to take an action, Ash has ruled you would be told your action failed. Which means: 1. Is anyone going to own up to xino's soothed voted? 2. Is anyone going to own up to roleblocking xino or Mat? Edited to add: Ah no. No on this implying xino took an action. Here's the relevant WoA: From the C2 post. So no, we just want to know if there's a roleblock claim on Mat C1.
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It's a-me, Kario! But no, seriously. In short, I feel like if Sja were going for active Village cred play, C2 Drought is a good place to be. C2 Drought seems to say a lot without saying very much: his reasoning on you C2 more or less condemns Tani and is a reason to go for the quiet ones as well; his vote is extremely stable which can be of concern in a high-volatility end-cycle with significant Village voteswing to the end, Drought reads as exceptionally conciliatory (which is ironic, I recognise this), but could also be a player who does not want to get into any fights because fights draw attention and get you killed. And there's his positioning against the me-train, which he half-takes-back later, and he votes on a side-train which later gets big. Defends Tani and Araris, but there's a lot of hedging. I get this, and it #feelsbad to lynch when a player isn't present, but if we don't vote on them, they don't speak up, and it's hard to get reads, gut or otherwise, that way. It's a Catch-22. But it's worth noting this isn't too off from LG79 Drought, at least at a brief glance. So I honestly don't feel terribly strongly about this read, and I feel we are partly suffering from the 'lynch actives' bias Village always has, which is why I went back to try to do some analysis. If I were to talk certainty, yeah, I'd be willing to lynch you and Drought - or well, before you claimed anyway. As I mentioned, I think that it's psychologically tough to go for a quieter player because it feels like a crapshoot in the dark, and there's the illusion of more information with talkative players (yes, sort of, but also, if we're not reading the data right, it doesn't matter, does it?) In a way, I see the vote on you and Drought to be more or less identical - it's a "well, could fit the profile" kind of thing. Who did you go for C1, by the way?
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Alright. My promised thoughts: 1. If the Nine are not guaranteed, then it puts a slightly different complexion on things. I feel that no matter how you slice it, balance requires at least one of <Ba-Ado-Mishram, Moelach, and Nightspren.> Probably more than one for redundancy. Conversion games are brutal for the Village and late converts can mess with trusts. Not giving the Village any way to detect conversions is rough, because it can take a while to show. But we know that minimally, Moelach exists (because Death Rattles do), and Illwei was a Nightspren, so I would shrug on the issue of BAM. BAM doesn't really significantly tip the scales either way I don't think, so it's not implausible we have BAM but also not impossible BAM is left out. If we had a way to confirm Araris was really BAM (likely requiring consent from @Elandera), it'd be helpful. But depending on the numbers, I feel that the closer we are to lylo, the more we should just go "soddit" and claim actions and roles because what do we have to lose? I can see a case for not doing it this cycle, but I do feel this has to be highlighted. But here's an aside - let's look at the roles we know have to be in the game: 2. My relook at the C1 voting: tldr; I don't think any of these are exceptionally strong points, but I think it's well worth looking at the sets again by cross-referencing the C3 results. But that's a C3 problem. Suffice to say I have weak reason to think that Sja is in the <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az> set, potentially <xino, Tani> too. But this isn't working off Mat's posts or voting patterns, which I feel are...weird. I also highlight that xino has a weird vote, and Elan looks a bit more Village off C1, which fits with Araris's claim that she's not Sja. 3. My relook at the C2 voting: tldr; I think we have stronger reason to believe that Nergaoul was Village C2, and weaker reason to believe that Team Sja did not come under serious threat C2. Note also that Tani and Araris (whether converted or not) are unlikely to both be Evil together. A votejack here turns the Tani-Elk-Araris tie to an Elk-Araris-Illwei tie, which doesn't make too much sense, especially when all the last vote changes came from Villagers. So suppose we are looking for Sja or one member of Team Sja from those who are not under threat: <Mat*, Araris*, xino, Elan, Kas*, Chantara, Az, Drought, TUO, Squirrel.> I asterisk Mat and Araris because they were under pressure at at least one point in the cycle. I suppose the same is true of myself. Compare that to the C1 list: <Chantara, Mint, Drought, TUO, Az> set, potentially <xino, Tani> This...is not so helpful, and Araris and Elan have been removed on the assumption that Araris is BAM and truthful, though if we are looking for any Elim then it becomes trickier. I don't want to LG80 Chantara again, and I think I can see why she voted for Elk, though I'd like to hear from her directly. That vote is odd, though I also feel like an Elim is just better off not voting at that point; the opposite being that Chantara wants to appear active enough, but had no real horse in the race. This was right after the Araris mic drop, and the Elk train was safe enough. For now, I lean a bit more towards the view an Elim would've just stayed away instead of trying. Squirrel is promising engagement and I don't really want to kill him off as he's becoming more active so I'm a bit wait-and-see on Squirrel. Az seems to be doing something interesting, and I hope we get a response there fast. Really, the issue with going among the semi-actives is that any vote feels like a bit of a crapshoot in the dark, which can be psychologically unnerving. I'm going to go on TUO, for no particular reason than that he clearly wants someone to take the bait, and if we don't ask about that cryptic post, we are probably never going to get. I am currently indifferent between Mat and Drought, especially since I don't think my hypothesis on Mat pans out anymore, and Mat is sufficiently in the lead we don't need me to pad it for now. If you're reading this analysis longpost, I'm sorry for you as it feels like I've gone in circles without too much progress, but I'm going to throw it here in the hopes someone can bounce something off it and give me something to chew on and make more sense with. Doubleposting because this is hella long.
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Didn't really want to say that directly but yes, that's why I voted for her earlier this cycle, as I'm not sure it was benign activity. I've since swapped — at the bottom of one of the longposts — to thinking it was Village Nergaoul, and so have shifted my vote to Drought while I work on a more detailed vote analysis post (happening now.) LATER KAS IF YOU READ THIS DON'T HIT POST CTRL + C OR YOU'LL LOSE THE POST
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Mat, I guess to put the same point another way: we had a last minute swing for Elan, then Elk, and you and Araris both said you'd be on late if possible to save yourselves. I don't see how any player in their right mind could look at all that volatility and go, "That's right, I'm going to swap a vote from Tani to Illwei, purely on random and not because I have any opinion on them at all, in order to prove my role." It's not purely demonstrative, and in a cycle where we know that it is possible another of us is no longer Village, it's a data point. Publicly: Kas: Stormspren Araris: BAM. That's it
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I hadn't seen any additional votes on that day so I just assumed someone had used the ability in order to be able to claim it later as an "I'm not Sja" card. But really what I'd have done in their shoes was to subtly claim the voteshift before doing it so when I claimed, I could say "Yeah, and here's the evidence it was me rather than someone else." It avoids worries if there's a contest between claims later on. But anyway, it's not as easy to contest, so I doubt it matters significantly. I don't remember if @Ashbringer clarified whether Nergaoul can change a vote to a no-vote - I think I asked? - and I'm going to just shamelessly ask again because it's not like we're making him count votes so whatever. The important thing is xino wasn't in any danger, so it didn't matter as I was the lead train, and just as importantly, no votejacker C1 would have been Elim, so that part is moot. I don't think the C2 vote was also meant to be as demonstrative because demonstrative votejacking - like removing a vote from a player who was never in danger - doesn't have an impact. It's just meant to prove you have that role. Now granted, Illwei and I both voted Elk really late, but given it was a 4:3 difference and it was on Illwei, and the lead votes were 2 for a decent chunk of the cycle, it doesn't read to me like a demonstrative votejack at all. A safe way to do a demonstrative votejacking would be to take a no-vote and put it on someone who wouldn't be touched, like Mint or Az. [ Hi @Ashbringer Can Nergaoul change a no-vote to a vote?]
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I promise you I feel as appalled by this as you do. ...Maybe we're just saving it to be end-cycle psychos though
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I'm done with work, it's 5.40AM, and I need sleep. I am not going to do proper vote pattern analysis until I have sleep. My Tani vote though - just to say a bit more about it. I haven't looked too closely but it's just running off the basis that it's a really...involved effort to get Illwei killed or save Tani. It's not implausible since enough people voted for Illwei and Elk and Chantara expressed uncertainty about Illwei (remember that Illwei looks like the candidate for the Cher kill - and yes I realised I've mispelled Chemoarish's name enough times but whatever I dub thee Cher) but I tend to treat involved efforts as being more likely to stem from informed parties than uninformed, uncoordinated parties. So, from Elims rather than blundering Villagers. Given at least three or four players were tied for a decent chunk of the second half of the cycle, including Tani and Illwei, the vote manip also seems to stem from...huh. Actually, no, yeah, I change my mind. Tani. Unless we're looking at a Tani/Mat or a Tani/Araris team (recall that there could be only one convert on C1 at most!), I feel as though Team Sja has no reason to aggressively use vote manipulation. The theory here is as follows: we know Elk and Illwei are Village, so for the Elims to have vote manipulated, they must have felt under threat. A 1/3 or 1/4 chance at being lynched is not very threatening, so for the vote manip to be called for, we're looking at at least two Elims up for the lynch. But there cannot be more than two Elims, due to conversions, so we are looking for at most two Elims up for the lynch. So, suppose we are looking at a Tani/Araris team. This would require Araris to be lying about his role - otherwise, they simply don't have the vote manip capabilities here with Sja and BAM. (Of course, it's also possible that we do have a Tani/Araris team who were just going to shrug and roll the dice at the lynch. But 2/3 is bad odds so I doubt it. 2/4 less so so maybe. In any case, I need to recheck how willing Araris is to lynch Tani as compared to Mat from C2.) The main proof we have of Araris being BAM is the fact he scanned me, but that's...not very sophisticated, since I had already claimed stormspren and anyone on Team Sja would know I'd have to be stormspren. The real question is Elan but I'm not necessarily going to get on the 'out Elan' train here. There's a possibility that Araris lied and that he's not BAM, but this would require the real BAM to have been converted C1. I can't see BAM remaining quiet about it otherwise, though maybe real BAM is one of our less active players. But that's one hell of a risky play since Unmade roles are unique so I wouldn't put high credence on those options. Long story short, a Tani/Araris team just doesn't really pan out if we're speculating Elim involvement. Let's look at our other main possibility: a Tani/Mat team. On this account, one of them is a vote manipulator, and one of them is Sja. I do find this possible, based on our current information. We know there are more than nine players, so the Unmade are guaranteed to be in this game. If we eliminate the Nine, we are left with five players. We know one of them is a stormspren (me), and another is a nightspren (Illwei.) In fact, we know that it was likely Nergaoul who targeted Tani—because smokespren can add or remove votes but can't shift votes. Appealing to Ockham's Razor here, it's more likely to be Nergaoul action. But that's an aside and I'm tired and rambling. The point is that if we postulate the vote manipulation was due to enemy action, then I feel as though it might to some extent imply a Tani/Mat team. But the thing is, that's not all the possibilities. It could, I think, also be Village Nergaoul extremely distrusting Illwei. And it could also be an Elim Nergaoul looking to sew chaos - but I feel as though the more promising route would have been to try to save Illwei and lynch someone else. The fact that Illwei was not likely Elim killed shows interest in converting Illwei or leaving Illwei alive to absorb suspicion. But a better route, if they had the capability, would be to pretend to save Illwei and prime us for a potential mislynch or at least a lot of wasted suspicion the next day. Again, unless two Elims were on the lam. I think my conclusion in my current state of mind is that it makes the most sense for the vote manip to be from Village Nergaoul. There is some possibility that it is from Elim Nergaoul (one of Mat/Tani) trying to save themselves but I feel like if it were Mat, the obvious response would be to vote manip onto Araris once Araris claimed BAM. Maybe Tani wasn't online in time (?) but Mat certainly was. Unless, of course, the Elim team wanted to convert Araris. I'm going to place a holding vote on Drought and go get some sleep and analyse once I've woken up. Rollovers are...really early in the morning for me anyway so I won't be in danger of not having done vote pattern analysis before it hits. Edited to add: Nevermind ignore most of this I'm a bloody moron as Wyrm would say I just remembered you cannot use your role action if you use the Sja kill so for all of this to be true, Sja would have had to put in the kill because vote manip happened meaning Sja's convert couldn't have killed so yeah I'm going to say I think it's Village Nergaoul.
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I legit just thought you felt she was a convert rather than Sja. Agree it's more practicable to go after Sja and to find Sja if we can, but that being said, if we absolutely need an Elim removed, I'm starting to think it depends, since the win con doesn't matter on Sja's parity. Then again, if we burn enough of her charges, she can't convert, so overall, yeah, I'd be happier to go for a stronger Sja candidate. (I know, I know, later...Still OTing and typing up a report so I can't spend more than a little attention here.) I don't want to bank on R-S making a clutch save to take out an Elim but you never know. Join the club. Drought's been gone for quite a while and back recently (I think LG79 was his first returning game?) so I don't really know anyone can give you a good read on now!Drought. I've only just discovered my memories of Drought - based off QF29 - are kind of off, too. In the games I've played with him, Drought hasn't been a super active player. His C2 posts aren't too different from his LG79 D4 posts, or that's my impression from a cursory re-read. I've linked them here for you to have a reference point - just the first of several, but if you scroll down, you can catch anything by Charcoal Hyena, which is Drought. Drought gets lynched that cycle and doesn't say anything the cycles before (had a quiet D1 I believe) so it doesn't really matter if you're just looking at D4. Edited to add: He doesn't get lynched, my bad, no one did, what a clusterchull... But anyway he dies that Night so same difference.
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Still OTing, so bandwidth is low, but I'm committing to returning to do vote pattern analysis before rollover and place a proper vote. That being said, as a quick interjection—TJ and I actually had a PM dispute over whether Drought counted as having a decent activity level or not. I said I thought he did; TJ disagreed and asked me to go through C1 again. Activity level for Drought in C1, unless I'm mistaken, is low, and Drought's recent track record would not necessarily be confidence-inspiring (I've last played LG79 with him, someone else tell me if there's a game I've missed with Drought inside.) My mental image of Drought is based off the mid-SE period but there's a chance I've just confused him with then-Devo's play profile entirely. I'm curious why you'd put Drought as a potential C1 candidate, if so, or Az. Tani or xino seem less of a gamble to a Sja working off C1 info and the assumption she'd like a reasonably active teammate. I feel like you're also overlooking Elan as a potential convert. She was minimally active C1 but anyone not Chantara (I think?) is likely aware that Elan could be trusted to not go inactive on an Elim team. On the assumption that you remain unconverted and honest (for even a converted Araris might decide there is no harm in telling the truth here), Elan would not be Sja but nothing says Elan can't be converted. Same logic for me since all you're attesting to is that I'm not Sja, really. This is in a sense my gut feel off his post, as I've mentioned, but I also hesitate as I don't think Sja/converts gain as much Village cred this game from flips, due to the presence of conversions. That being said, players may default to standard game patterns so maybe that's what's going on here. My disagreement largely comes from the fact that this seems to be how Az plays to a large extent, so I don't know if Sja!Az would be motivated to change his playstyle since that could also be pretty indicative. But I don't feel strongly about Az beyond "potential Sja hiding place." Question: why is Drought your strongest candidate, and but your vote on Mat? If the probabilities on your calculus shift to Drought, why go for Mat instead? Edited to add: Cheers Then I'm more in favour of duplicating the Elim kill back onto the Elim via self-targeting. An extra scan helps us find Sja but we'd still have to take her out, and still have to gamble on Araris's allegiances over one cycle or another. Return to sender doesn't harm anyone not an Elim making a kill, and helps us - if aimed well - by directly removing an Elim and kicking back Team Sja's progress to win-con.
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Agreed about feasibility issues with D-G but why not reverse it? Come to a thread consensus of 1-2 players and R-S picks from them, Araris picks anyone sensible not them. Since R-S can redirect a player to self-target, I like the idea of R-S redirecting players to self-target better, honestly. It doesn't require us to guess if Araris is honest or unconverted (I don't feel there's much advantage to converting, but still.) As long as R-S is still Village, this gives us a chance of taking out the non-Sja Elim if R-S aims right. It may also serve as a mild kill deterrent or force Sja to take the kill instead if it is crucial to the Elim team that the kill goes through. @Ashbringer — Apologies as I know you've clarified this previously, but can I confirm if R-S can redirect such that Sja kills herself? Edited to add: Rebel roleblockers are an issue anyway, e.g if Araris is roleblocked, then I suspect R-S duplication would fail because there is no action to duplicate. @Ashbringer, can you confirm this? I got pulled in for weekend OT. I'll come back in a bit for analysis and voting but may be busier than I expected. Currently my vote is for Tani[/color]
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1. Off! Off my porch! 2. This seems to boil down to: cannot afford mislynch, and also, if we think Araris is still Village, Re-Shepir should duplicate his scan. Figuring out if Araris is Village matters in that we don't want to duplicate a kill instead. If uncertain, Re-Shepir should hold fire. Cher cannot kill on an Odd cycle so we just have R-S to factor in this time around. Along with any role-blockers. Role-blockers are generally good for us, with the worst case being that they hit Sja and we get a null result. Edited to add: @Ashbringer, can Re-shepir make a player self-target? Because if so, it'd be good insurance — can't stop the Elim kill but can ensure the Elim dies as well.
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Elan was a weak gut and a profile reason. I guess when push came to shove, I didn't feel strongly enough about it when I asked myself if I wanted her to die. Part of it was disliking the options available - some of it was a meta read of Illwei (remember, Elim Illwei in LG80 didn't want to shorten the days despite her team being in a losing position), Araris was off the table, and Araris being off the table entailed you were off the table (due to my theory; Araris was one of the other candidates but Araris being BAM and Illwei being a Nightspren actually strengthens it, unfortunately) - so to me, it had become an Elan/Elk choice. Elk was peripheral enough and non-committal enough I was fine with him being lynched. I felt that he could fit a peripheral Sja profile, and a prospective non-involved convertee profile. It boiled down to me disliking his non-committalness more than I disliked Elan going onto Illwei after me earlier in the cycle. I think the question is, roughly when would it be time-stamped? It gets interesting if the person wasn't on for near EoC madness, because that might really be an attempt to save Tani, or an attempt to killwei. And I think it's close enough anyway since it was 2-2-2-2 for quite a while until Illwei and I both switched almost simultaneously to Elk. Edited to add: Suppose it is an attempt to Killwei though. We need to sort through which kill was which - it looks to me like a Chermoarish kill, so we have an active Chermoarish who is not afraid to take shots. It's an Even Cycle so Re-Shepir doesn't come into play. My read from the cycle discussion is that it is more likely TJ was the Elim kill, in which case, Illwei was likely the Chermoarish kill. Unclear if the vote swing was enemy action or Villager fog-of-war. Edited to add 2: I don't see Illwei as being an Elim kill because I think Sja would rather leave her alive in the hopes of continuing the chaos. TJ to me reads the more natural Elim kill. On the assumption that TJ is in fact the Elim kill, why? His main contributions for the cycle were twofold: he introduced the Elk train (but that should have made him a natural candidate for suspicion the next cycle - does this suggest that Team Sja had locked the vote in earlier hoping that TJ would be low info?), and he suggested that I be scanned rather than lynched. So we have two other resulting possibilities - TJ was thought to be an action scanner (after his talk about action scans) and killed, or TJ was threat killed (possible). TJ was Spook but we didn't claim to each other because it's useless on my part and because we're professional paranoids, just discussed our suspicions. It's the reason I felt Illwei was a non-Sja candidate: TJ and I were racking our brains for who might have hooked us up with a PM, since I had initially just assumed he was an Envoyspren and so not Sja. This led us to a short pool of D-G candidates, which I then endeavoured to not vote on.
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I'm going to guess he's saying he protected me C1 - I killed myself by offering myself to the lynch and self-voting - averting a potential double-tap, and Araris C2 (this bit is clearer.) Edited to add: Araris was votejacked off Tani to vote for Illwei. Was this a bit of chaos? Edited to add 2: @Araris Valerian, who did you scan?
