Kasimir
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Everything posted by Kasimir
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El's post here: There were two roleblocks available. You obtained one, but El issued multiple copies.
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>:( Seven years. I had a lovely, seven years Village streak going on. Then someone came in like a wrecking ball. And then I had a lovely, seven years not-Evil streak. And El said, "Nope." >:( >:( This game had certain conditions that masked my inability to Elim effectively - namely, the fact the cycles are about an hour long, as well as the fact PMs are default closed. I couldn't have sustained this in a normal QF, MR, or LG, basically. And the fact it was at an unholy hour for me and I had to tap out for a while to take more migraine meds no doubt helped mask some of the tonal inconsistencies and disinterest in solving the game. Thanks to @Elbereth for GMing this, and @Devotary of Spontaneity for IMing. And thanks to @Matrim's Dice and @StrikerEZ for a fun run; and good game to the Village I admit the public vc sheet was less useful for me: I almost never glanced at it because I need to see progression to do a vote analysis, and so having a frozen vote count was helpful in terms of getting a quick assessment of the vote situation, but I spent most of the game running my own count just to try to analyse properly. Nice to have, but wouldn't rely on it or be upset if a GM didn't use it. I feel that one way to lessen the control issue might be to reveal how many players start with how many votes on them at the start of the cycle. I'd sort of default assumed this would happen (this is on me) and this was the model I had in mind when proposing this as a QF, which is to say that at least Village isn't blindsided by these votes coming out of nowhere. One hour cycles is downright kayana. I was forced to adapt my playstyle and I think it got hard at times to track what was going on. Probably just an 'adapt' issue but for a player like me who does analysis, a lot of times I was forced to do trade-offs between thoroughness and speed, as well as what to focus on. As a side-note, when coming in as a Villager, I expected Elims to be more evidently absent or backfooted in the thread because they had to keep up in a doc too. I feel the one hour cycle exacerbates this as a potential tell, but it might be just me. Certainly one reason Stick was on to me was she felt my absence from the thread indicated doc presence.
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Just to be sure, due to the issue with the spreadsheet: Len, xino
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I think my question for E!xino is: what happens if someone gives you a reason to vote on an Elim? Wouldn't you be obligated to vote on them? I guess you could synchronise with your teammates to have them prompt you, and xino did refuse an offer from Len, so he has some wriggle-room but that does feel a bit risky. Depends on his team's risk appetite, I think, in an E!xino world. Ah, gods above, am I talking myself into going for Len instead? :| Edited to add: Soddit I'm running out of time. xino Len This is where I'm at, I guess :| Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders. RNG-Gott hilf mir. @Elbereth Changed my vote.
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I've stated as much in my readslist: I do think Len's C1 proposal is slightly more likely to come from a Village mindset. I am firm in my belief that CC tends to hurt the Village more than it helps and only works under a specific set of conditions. Offering a proposal that helps the Village more than the Elims by averting a CC seems to me to come from a Village mindset. I could be persuaded that it's performative, but I just...I don't know man. I guess E!Len could say that too, but I just ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ I think it's another Experience thing for me tbh. Edited to add: @Flamingo, why the late switch to xino?
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My problem is that Len and xino both balance out for me in terms of C1 voting, and I have weak reason to V-read Len placed against that, hence the null placing. I'm not keen to take a stronger stand until I can at least inspect the C3 votes due to the kayana EoC.
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Me: here's a reads list Also me: hits send before adding in reads list. Can you tell it's 0530hrs? :| Light Village: Striker (C1 vote is kayana; Elim should be indifferent between V/V trains and it attracts unnecessary flak) Null+: Araris (C1 Aman kill doesn't fit his MO; recognise that this is defeasible, hence the null+) Null: xino (strat feels kayana for an Elim, but also avoids scrutiny, so I'm not too fond of it.) Len (I still maintain his proposal seems V, but I can't deny I dislike the side-train voting pattern, so this pushes him firmly back into null for me) Mat (I'm trying to decide if my disagreement over his side-train issue is making me side-eye him, i.e. if this is LG83 again. But I just don't like it.) Flamingo (No real read - would like to know more of her thoughts, as she seems to be sheeping, but also, new player so.) Gonna go back and look at the previous votes now. Striker and Araris are non-starters for me; I can be persuaded into anyone on my null tier.
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Ash was Elim killed and exed. Immediate thoughts are that the Elims weren't really on the ball at EoC to change the kill target. I seem to have missed Striker's vote on Len in my personal count which is embarrassing and probably indicates I should not be a hipster and should just use the nice spreadsheet El has prepared, even though it can't do vote progression analysis. I think there were xino and Flamingo RB claims which means that neither of them put in a kill last cycle. Here's a quick and dirty reads list with very few gradations - I need to commit to redoing a bit of vote analysis and rereading the thread because I miss things. I guess the problem of a BT is you have to decide what to do with your one hour, whether it's more fine-grained vote analysis, or just keeping up with the thread. (The perfect is the enemy of the good and all that.) C3 EoC is worth a look at, and so I'll go into it. In the spirit of my C3 vote before I thought Striker was in danger, I'm going to vote for xino - same deal as before, Len has one vote's worth of pressure on him, so I'm fine with this.
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I point you to E!Archer And E!Karn. And E!Bip. Not to resurrect LG83 and cross the streams too much, but my point is that this clearly bears out in practice so I think it's a reasonable inference to make. Okay, so if you like the vote less, can you propose an alternative candidate? Voting pattern wise, I'm okay with someone joining me on xino. I think Araris could also use pressure - I'm not really gung ho on Len at the moment, and Ash is a non-starter for me. I have no real read on Flamingo which is concerning. I lean V on Striker, so there's that. And...I'm not sure how I feel about you, honestly. I know you pushed this line of reasoning as a Villager, but if there's a side-train Elim, I'm definitely strengthening my suspicions of you because that's where you're going with this. And yes, you are voting side-train guy, Len, despite thinking Elims are likely to be on the V/V main train. I'm not seeing your logic here. Urgh. And I think Striker might be dying? And I V read him more strongly so lesgo. Xino Len I hate this, JSYK >:(
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Alright, had a cup of green tea and I have a heat pack, so hopefully this should go away. Here's my C1 analysis revisited, briefly: We now know Stick/Exp were V/V: We also know Thaid was V. To me, this reads that one place to potentially look for Elims is on the side-trains, because once again, low investment. Thaid's vote switch was clearly pure dgaf. In the same vein, while I still don't understand how Striker thought he was breaking a tie, I do read him as lightly V for that move - an Elim has no reason to make a last minute switch since he should be indifferent between both trains. This means that in terms of vote patterns, Xino and Len both stick out to me. Len has more than enough votes on him, so I'm going to put a bit of pressure on Xino. Further thoughts: I still like Len's C1 proposal. I honestly think CC commitments are bad for the Village so it feels to me like it comes from a bit more of a Village mindset. So I guess that's another point against me being down with adding yet another vote to Len. I do have slightly reduced E!Araris credences. I don't see him being down for a C1 Aman kill. I grant this could change if his teammates strongly outvote him ( >:( ) but all the same. Thaid kill is interesting to me - it's a deviation. They kill Aman and then they kill Thaid. Low info, or Elims have strong feelings about inactivity? 8 votes on Ash? Really? Leaning V on Ash for this. Who the hell would...Ash, you absolute madlad. I'll go over the C2 voting results briefly, but I don't know if I will have time in my current state to finish it and also engage with this hour's thread. Will do my best.
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Real talk guys: gonna brb for a decent chunk of the cycle as I'm feeling unwell. Will medicate if necessary and/or step out, but I need a moment to breathe and potentially medicate. Happy to bluetext this if required.
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Bro. I checked the VC. You broke the tie against Experience, how the hell does that count as making a tie? Striker.
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Painfully, with five cups of tea to wash away the exhaustion and painkiller fog. And I lost my chill the moment EoC shenanigans happened and I got flashbacks to LG79 Vulture-Lion-Dragonfly dance as well as MR56 C2 :|
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Alright. This is a quick and dirty vote movement analysis because this is a short cycle and I suspect that going fast is better than being thorough. I want to mostly look at the EoC flurry of activity here: This is our final clean votecount. Gonna note we have two main possibilities to consider: Exp-Stick E/V and Exp-Stick V/V. Pegged to this point of the cycle, but let's work backwards a little. Right before that, we have Aman going on Experience, followed by Experience on Stick - @Experience, you mentioned something about E/E gut with regard to Stick, what did you mean? My personal read is that there's an element of self-pres to Experience's vote, but Experience could have gone on Len but went on Stick instead. Potential E/E with Len, but since I currently have mild Village credences on Len, that's a non-starter for me. Back past the Aman point: Stick votes on Experience. This is essentially a self-pres vote. Aman rewards this by unvoting from Experience to create a tie again. Presumably to force reactions. Thaid hops onto the Stick train, citing boredom. Potential shade of E/E here if Experience is E - with the caveat it depends on how risk-averse the Elim team is, since Thaid's vote pushes Stick before Experience. So Aman re-votes Experience to push the tie again. Ash unvotes Len. @Ashbringer, why? Tempted to think this looks good because there's literally no reason not to leave a performative vote there for E!Ash. But IDK. Maybe this is a bridge too far :| Then Striker goes onto Experience, breaking the tie. @StrikerEZ, didn't you say you like ties? What is that >> Since Stick is V, I feel that E!Striker would have gone elsewhere - if Experience is E, then Striker basically isn't making sense. And if Experience is V, E!Striker has in my view little reason to get invested - late vote movements often look weird as all hell. And then Aman unvotes Exp again, creating a tie. I think that's most of what I get out of this - slight Wormmon for Ash and Striker, a bit ? over Thaid, and...let's see how many people ninjaed me in the meanwhile :|
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We burn like pyrehawks together, YOLO bro
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How do you feel about four vote bids :eyes:
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Need to go back and look at EoC. This is an odd statement. This is obviously true if you're E - very likely someone would try to save you, unless you have an insane risk appetite. If you're V, we know Stick flipped V, and I'd agree more with Araris on that line of analysis: Elims have low investment in V/V trains so I'm curious as to where this certainty comes from. (To cross the streams very slightly, we know from LG83 that the D1 V/V train had very low - if zero - Elim investment.) Experience. Going back to re-read and do a quick and dirty vote analysis. Edited to add: You don't say >> Is this a good time to admit I went utterly kasyana?
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WHAT ARE Y'ALL DOING HOLY HELL WHY NOT THIS AGAIN
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Okay, fair God, I really wish I could do that. I think Aman was trying to talk me through this in a game that cannot currently be mentioned, but I always struggle with scaffolding most in C1 because I need actual vote patterns to be effective.
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I approve of this stance. Say No To Blackmail or Extortion >:(
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H'okay. This is the point where I channel the me from C1 MR56 when everyone is pulling E/E E/V seemingly out of the blue and I'm dying because I'm a vote analyst first and foremost: why?
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Hmm, okay, fair enough. I'm not cut out for BTs :| I thought it would be like C3 of MR56 with everyone going kayana trying to solve things but I've been burning the candle at both ends and it's starting to take a toll, even without the painkillers. Tbh, feels more like a winning proposition for Village, so I'd love it if the Elims took it up - it saves us energy having to CC inactives, with my usual objections to a CC strategy standing. It's possible that CC dynamics might be substantially different in a BT, but again, I usually feel CC works best under the presumption the inactive is really a lurker, or that their teammates will come out of hiding to defend them. I don't know how true the latter will be in a BT, due to the short cycles, so it feels like it'll be better for us than for them. Slight squinting Village on Len for this.
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Low key tempted to go for the Mashadar Panda, FYI. Just for old times' sake, since Aonar and I used it to save the Village from invading Trollocs and Fades in LG6. Good times
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Okay, help a tired old man out here. Why?
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I didn't even realise that was there :| This was my QF idea a long time ago, and I technically saw this ruleset when El was taking suggestions and my painkiller-fogged brain is still breaking on the rules so I should probably take that as a sign to YOLO and hakuna matata this.
