Kasimir

Bro, Archer and I are currently on Maili - Archer doesn't seem to be on and no idea if he'll get back in time to make the switch, either. We can't afford to divide the vote right now, or they get a 50-50 shot at MLing one of us and winning this! Edited to add: Will try to stay up for rollover, but no guarantees. 2AM, and it's been a long week, and I really just need to catch up on sleep. Ah, ye gods, and Orlok is still coming at me like a Mando'ad. Just what I wanted to do on my Wednesday night.

Should I have RPed as Kassandra? Because I think I absolutely saw that coming. Hello there, Orlok! So, here’s the thing. I think it’s funny that Orlok’s trying to put pressure on me for the basic argument, because I’ve acknowledged it is a good argument. The downside is that it relies on information that is not publicly accessible to the entire thread: specifically, knowledge of my own alignment. In other words, I don’t - realistically - and never have expected it to be convincing to others. But by my own lights, this is a perfectly reasonable argument, and one I’m extremely confident in. I just want to briefly walk us through the premises before I go to Orlok’s tackling my public variant of the argument, because I think it’s worthwhile reinforcing why this is a perfectly reasonable argument by V!Kas’s own lights. Here’s the private variant. I’m using Orlok’s notation here in order to engage with what he’s saying: This…isn’t an especially objectionable argument. As Orlok himself points out, C3 is reasonable and follows very tightly from A1, P5, and P6. P5 is publicly available information and is not up for dispute in any reasonable world. A1, too, is a perfectly reasonable assumption: I note that since Orlok has been vocal about how he thinks I’m Evil, he, too, is committed to A1. The real kicker is P6. Maili’s been sussing me for confidence, but of all the premises in this argument, I’d have to be certifiably insane not to have rock solid credences in P6! This just is the information available to me in my GM PM and is therefore not something I’m open to doubting. The bottom line I want to point out here is this: from my point of view, Orlok is Evil. The premises that commit me to E!Orlok are not in fact unreasonable. It is therefore eminently reasonable for me to consider Archer and TUA softcleared off their voting patterns, even before we talk about Archer being Striker’s designated C1 CW! The real difficulty is just that P6 is not accessible to another player who isn’t me. In other words, P6 is only persuasive insofar as a player has V!Kas credences. So: Orlok is, as well, right to note that in general, the publicly available reasoning that identifies him as suspicious and as the Elim who bussed Striker C1 boils down to a hodge-podge of points: That the timing of Orlok’s vote was suspicious That Orlok’s vote itself is a deviation from Orlok’s standard voting behaviour, and the best explanation for it is not in fact the considerations that Orlok mentions but that it was alignment-motivated (i.e. because Orlok is Evil.) Here’s the issue, Orlok. I don’t think that you having an explanation for the behaviour itself necessarily makes it much less suspicious. That is to say, to be brutally upfront: we know that Striker was very likely bussed, this was likely a decision made late in the game. I don’t think it’s an unreasonable statement to make: I’ve made my thoughts clear several times about how teams don’t proceed to bussing off the bat. There’s a natural progression there from the lack of available alternatives or off-ramps. With that being said, the logical inference is that the suspicious votes are the ones which are late-arriving, reflecting the late decision to bus Striker. Let’s look at what we have player claims for: Notice that every single late-voter, if we take Devo as an absolutely arbitrary demarcation point for late votes has flipped Village. There’s only one person left who hasn’t, and that’s Orlok. And you’re absolutely right that I’m arguing it’s uncharacteristic for you to drop everything and speedread and vote. I absolutely agree with this. But this is a point about your usual playstyle and imperatives to adapt, rather than whether or not your playstyle is good. Orlok bro, I’m absolutely down for you being able to participate more in C1. I’m not at any point saying it’s a bad thing that you don’t. But I am saying your playstyle makes it unusual that you do, and that deviation is noteworthy especially when this places you in a late-voting window (which the busser must logically originate from.) Except that’s not really what happened, is it? You specifically talk about skimming the thread, and then proceeding from there to vote. That, I notice, is a deviation from your usual attempts at catching up: rollover for MR56, for instance, was absolutely comparable to this one in terms of timing. You didn’t just abort the post-by-post analysis, settled for a skim, and then leaped to vote off that basis. Now, you could be arguing that I’m unfairly penalising you for a shift in your playstyle that makes you happier. I honestly think that could be true simultaneously with you also being Evil and also having bussed Striker. I also think that if we cull down the late-voting pool, it does point fairly strikingly towards you. Because at the end of the day, even if I can’t convince the thread of it, I know P6 is true, which entails to me that despite you providing possible explanations for your vote and the particular timing of it, you have to be the busser.

Cards on the table time. This is what I think the Elim game plan is. Plan A: Secure the ML. They do this by forcing vote splintering, and then a hammer. I believe I'm the ML target of choice because both Archer and TUN are in theory persuadable onto me, whereas selling E!Archer or E!TUN risks alienating either Archer or TUN. (Not that it's stopping Orlok from trying to peddle an E!Archer theory to TUN, I notice.) Maili correctly points out he's not trying to persuade me because E!Maili and E!Orlok both know I know I'm not the busser, so by pure PoE, it has to be Orlok, with Maili as his teammate. This means that there is no point in trying to persuade me; I'm simply not as persuadable as Archer or TUN theoretically are. Plan B: Bus Orlok/Maili Plan B is not their main plain - it's their contingency plan. Nothing stops Maili from both claiming he will go onto Orlok (in other words, appearing to bus Orlok) and surveying for takers, while reserving his secret vote for a hammer if cracks appear in Village unity, e.g. if Orlok successfully persuades TUN onto me or Archer. I point out that bussing Orlok appears to be largely necessary if they want to win in the next cycle - this is largely because Orlok has locked himself onto an E!Archer/E!Kas team, antagonising both me and Archer, while Maili has more freedom to operate. The only way Maili (or Orlok) is not getting voted on next cycle by the survivors is if they look more Village than they currently do, in order to induce the survivors to split - because Maili doesn't have a good vote history, and has defended Orlok, the only solution for that is a bus. (I note that a failure to bus, as it were, if Village unity holds fast, is a sure-lose strategy for E!Maili and E!Orlok, given their current credibility deficit. I also note that a side-benefit of Maili trying to appear Village now by claiming willingness to bus Orlok is that V!Maili entails E!Kas, which means that if he can shift the current distribution of credences by working with Orlok to push me, they may still be able to return to Plan A by hammering me.) Part of this however does boil down to the question of their final three for the next cycle. They obviously have a menu of kill targets here. Killing me or Archer could skew things in their favour by relying on TUN's activity levels. But that in itself is a gamble. If they don't like that gamble, they can kill TUN and try to turn Archer on me, via V!Maili entails E!Kas. (Or I suppose, me on Archer, but then they wouldn't have spent this time antagonising me.) I think this is a significant part of Maili's strategy right now. Low activity players are in principle less persuadable than higher activity ones. FWIW, I do think this strategy is more dependent on Maili being the surviving Elim. I suspect it's because Orlok really has less room here, having been committed to E!Archer and E!me, thereby antagonising us. This might explain the particular directionality of their play. In a way, Maili's not entirely wrong that bussing is weaker as a strategy, but he's being disingenuous, because the Elims are clearly planning to hedge their bets no matter the outcome of this cycle. My point, and the reason why I categorically deny it is necessarily weaker is I think that he's really bet hedging right now, to set his team up for success no matter what the outcome of this cycle is. It's not guaranteed, but it's certainly a fairly friendly landscape for the team that somehow managed to poach Orlok from death last cycle. From a Village perspective, it's a fairly hostile landscape for us necessitating an uphill climb. The main solution has to be a commitment to lynching the survivor in the <Maili, Orlok> pool next cycle, if there is a next cycle. (On the supposition their Plan A fails.) But that's why the bus and the willingness to bus is bet-hedging: because the Elim team's main way of defeating this play is by stacking as much Village credit on Maili as they possibly can (potentially also shading their preferred next cycle ML target in the process), in the hopes of breaking Village willingness to commit to the 'lynch the survivor' strategy. tldr; Maili sus, Orlok sus, reasons laid out earlier this cycle, whoever survives, lynch the other one next cycle. If we maintain cohesion and then refuse to deviate from this, we're in pretty good shape, I think. This is worth a kel's life, if they do NK me We've got this, Village. I believe in us. They thought they could break us. Let's show them how wrong they are!

Ouch I'm cool with it, but will see if Striker or TUN are passing first. The ruleset isn't terribly complex, so I anticipate a faster committee pass

I've pointed out extensively why bussing isn't the weaker play here, and secures your team a win no matter what. Even the appearance of being willing to bus earns you some measure of Village cred. At the risk of talking myself up a little, there's a reason I haven't died to a lynch unwillingly since 2014, and I guess both of you just found that out the hard way. Making a play for trust via bussing isn't the worst of the menu of options your team has. This allows you to NK me for being too stubborn to die as Plan B, and try to turn TUN and Archer on each other for the win. This is a blatant falsehood. If you're Evil and you die, your team doesn't lose: Orlok kills one of us, and then goes on to 2v1 the survivors. Probably explains why he's focused on lobbying TUN instead of Archer, in an attempt to splinter Village consensus. From the set-up though, I assume you're both banking on the fact you're better-placed to handle a 2v1, which isn't counterintuitive considering Orlok's focus on [Edited to add: longposts.] Again, I repeat. Your sense of urgency is tied to lynching me specifically. You Elim-slipped there, and now you're trying to walk it back by claiming that I'm generally saying that a Villager shouldn't feel a sense of urgency at lylo. If V!Maili believes in E!Kas and E!Orlok, he has no reason to fabricate a sense of urgency while demanding a Kas lynch in particular. As far as he is concerned, he is indifferent between the two. But this makes sense for E!Maili. Given that there is no reasonable world in which you can sell the idea of TUN and Archer being Evil, I am the only viable target if your team wants to win this cycle. This is why you are so particularly urgent about lynching me. Because there is only one winning move for this cycle, and that is lynching me. You suggesting I'm only pushing one narrative is laughable, since that's basically where you're at. Do I need to? My play and my actions have shown I'm a Villager. I haven't the need to make unnecessary and performative declarations, and frankly, if my saying, "I'm not Evil" is enough to make you re-evaluate your priors, then you probably have bigger problems than just me. But sure, if my claiming it publicly helps you, then so be it: I am a Villager, and you and Orlok are the two Elims we need to lynch to bring this home and win this. Lesgo Village. Let's make this one count, for our fallen brethren. Edited to add: To be clear, I'm not going to sugarcoat this. This is absolutely going to be an uphill climb for the Village. Your team is committed to splintering the vote, allowing you to hammer today, or to killing one of us (I personally suspect me, to try to motivate Archer and TUN to sus each other rather than you.) If we lynch you or Orlok today, we still have to deal with the survivor tomorrow, and in a world where we lynch you, I fully expect Orlok to also kill me in order to try to motivate TUN to buy Evil Archer. Lylo always is an uphill climb for the Village. But we did it before in LG79, and we'll do it again.

Except that your sense of urgency is tied to lynching me this cycle. Again, I quote: You specifically tie success this cycle to lynching me. But we know there are two Elims left. We lynch one, we go back for round two and lynch the other. I'm with Archer on you for consolidation purposes, and following his plan. I'm not wedded to lynching you specifically: I just feel it's important to make the case for both you and Orlok since both of you are trying to get me lynched to varying degrees. V!Maili should be indifferent between me and Orlok since all the Village needs to survive lylo is one Elim lynch. You slipped up here, and pressed too hard for, specifically, the ML on me, which your team needs to win this game. Anatomy of a Village Loss, aka How To ML Kas: Step 1. Insist Kas must be lynched this cycle or the Village is screwed. Step 2. Back down from that strong claim after brawling with Kas and insist that Orlok is Evil. Step 3: Waffle apparently about whether Kas is or is not Evil but suggest he has to be in parentheses, while accepting apparently an Evil TUN world as a possibility. Step 4. Lynch teammate Orlok (wow, cold.) Step 5. In the process, try to look Villagery by lobbying Archer and TUN repeatedly and seeking consensus. Step 6. Orlok flips E, therefore accumulate Village cred. Step 7: Cold-bloodedly NK Archer or TUN. Step 7: Get survivor to lynch Kas. Step 8: RIP Village. ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ Edited to add: Then again, maybe I'm too hasty. Maybe the point of this exercise is to NK me if I can't be MLed, bus Orlok, and then get Archer to turn on TUN or TUN on Archer, given your thoughts of an Evil TUN world.

To be fair, that's what you're saying now. It looks like Orlok is making the main push, even as you shade me, met resistance, backed off, and tell Archer that you have to lynch me this cycle or: So is this or is this not true? If we're 'done' if we don't ML me now, and I point to the fabricated sense of urgency there, then why are you suddenly fine with moving onto Orlok? I submit: this is a play for time to try to get me MLed the next cycle. You know who absolutely needs the Kas ML such that 'we're done' if it doesn't go through this cycle? An Elim. Because Archer and TUA should not be targets to anyone who has been remotely paying attention, meaning that both of you need to ML to win this game. [Edited to add: And the only target you have is me. God, do I feel loved ] I could make the same accusation of you. It's clear to me you're trying to offer to bus Orlok for Village cred now, after having defended him previously. I assume you'll kill Archer or TUN this cycle, and then try to get the survivor to ML me with you. What will happen when Orlok comes on, I wonder? Are both of you gambling on drawing TUN off to try to split the vote further? Doesn't matter to me. For the record, one way or another, I'm voting with Archer. It's that simple. You keep referring to me as 'desperate.' Yet I'm not the one making repeated posts lobbying Archer and TUN. Are you a movie theatre? Because that's a hell of a lot of projection going on there I've made my case, and done my best. Beyond that, it's his plan, and I'm following Archer come hell or high water. The Village can't afford to be divided. I don't need to comment about players shifting playstyle for situational contingencies - LG83 is an excellent example where I kept insisting that missing a kill and N2ing Aman was not Araris's MO, only to discover Araris was Evil after all. I don't believe in holding on to a single datapoint when it's clear that the read is just plain wrong - the events of C5 and C6 definitively prove that I was wrong to clear you on the basis of playstyle.

Tbf, yes, but you know, no one was taking Tuatara's votesplintering bait in end-game LG79 either, but it didn't stop me from writing a longpost outlining the reasons why accepting that bait was a Very Bad Idea But I also recognise that with Maili and Orlok's apparently gunning very hard for a ML of me, knowledge of my alignment may not be persuasive, so I figured I'd might as well actually get my thoughts down in a way that IDs why the team has to be them.

How's it feel to pull Evil on the two times you returned to SE, Maili? Well-played indeed. I'll honestly give it to you: you and Orlok had me fooled. More you than Orlok, and I'm impressed, even though I saw your work in LG74 from the GM's perspective. I was suspicious of Orlok for that C1 vote, but there was always that paranoid voice at the back of my head going, "Yes, but what if the busser is in <Illwei, Ash>?" You though? I'd just written you down as light Village in my head for a decent chunk of the game. I didn't even begin to relook at you in all seriousness until Aman pointed you out C3 and mentioned that you were shielding Orlok and giving him too easy a pass for apathy. 'Course, I assume I'm still alive because you guys have been gunning for a Kas ML this cycle, and Orlok's certainly been beating the war drums for an Archer ML. Well, and me this cycle - guess he's not picky, and I'm the easier target this time. I'm a student of the school of Alekhine, though. You guys want to ML me and win the game? Fight me for it I stood with the Village against the Elims in LG83, even when they were taking chunks out of us each cycle after the hammer. I made Evil Araris earn his victory against Szeth and myself in LG82. Even this tired and far from my best, I'm not gonna give the Village anything less this game. On the basis that I voted on every main train? I engaged with the cycle, made my arguments, developed my thoughts, and exchanged views with the other players. You yourself pointed out that Illwei and I shared the exact same voting pattern, and Illwei flipped Village. We could read this as an assertion that an Elim would always vote on the main train, but what reason do we have to believe that assertion is true? But hey, sure, let's look at the voting patterns, though. C1: This is the current state of my credences. And as I've mentioned, it makes sense: Orlok's vote came extremely late on C1. Anyone here played LG83? Remember the number of times Orlok didn't vote because he wasn't caught up? What do you think is different here? I submit: Orlok wanted to gain Village cred and sent in a last minute vote on Striker, bussing him. Meanwhile, I commented that no one had taken my sidetrain bait. But I was being too hasty. Because now we see that someone did: Maili took my bait vote on JNV, no doubt because the team was trying to identify a viable CW to Striker. They weren't all going to put their eggs in the Archer basket, even with the last minute swing to Ash. The fact that Striker made a last minute Ash swap and no Elims voted alongside Striker should further point to the fact that Devo was right: the Elims scattered among the trains rather than clump up on any one train. So this makes - in my eyes - Orlok the C1 busser, and Maili voted on a safe side-train, likely because he couldn't get on in time to swap, and/or the team was comfortable with the Scattering. C2: Here's the interesting one. What are the odds of a pure V/V train, Ash asks? Apparently: more likely than you think. But this is easily explainable: neither Orlok nor Maili had particular interest in the trains precisely because it was V/V, and getting caught on a main train tends to be bad for Elims. In a superb display of Evil dgaf energy, Maili further points out that he was going to submit a vote on Exp - shying away from the Ash CW. ( I think it is possible that E!Maili was worried the Ash train would be more sizeable than expected, as there was some latent fog-of-war surrounding the train sizes. But I don't think one needs to accept this point to note that the lack of Evil investment is perfectly predictable from the fact it was V/V. The fact that we've been struggling to successfully lynch another Elim other than Striker, IMO, further lends credence to the view that the Elim strategy was to hang back and to let the Village cut our own throats for them - a strategic profile that highlights both Orlok and Maili.) C3: What's interesting here is that we see a notable profile deviation, and one that will continue in later cycles. We can't say much about Orlok, as he was borderline inactive. I'm largely going to credit it to Maili having more available time, but I think it's also interesting that Maili first emerges onto the JNV main train in the same cycle he comes under pressure from Aman and Ash for the first time. (To be clear, I'm not saying this is the first time he votes JNV - I'm saying this is the first time he shows up on a main train, and I think it's no accident it accompanies increased pressure from other players.) C4: So, I am committed to the view that this cycle does involve Elim clumping, but I think it can be explained by the fact that Maili was more or less committed to an Experience push. I have no idea why Orlok ended up on Experience, but I'm committed to E!Orlok so I'm just going to move on. I don't particularly think there is much to say about this cycle, except to note that TUA and Archer should be considered softcleared to anyone paying attention, and this means that our main non-soft-cleared three: <Kas, Maili, Orlok> are all on the same train, so if it's damning, it's a shared guilt. C5: Once more for the class - Archer and TUA in my view should be considered softcleared for voting Orlok this cycle, even before we bring in any further considerations like Archer being the favoured C1 Striker CW. I submit that Maili's aggression on Ash was meant to proactively push a train that would hopefully keep Orlok safe, given that Orlok had returned to activity and had drawn some flak off his C1 vote. I do think I am committed to a Maili/Orlok team pretty strongly - generally by sheer force of PoE. But he did end up voting on him, to his regret, three whole cycles later, but I see that you're not very interested in accuracy while trying to get your favoured ML of me going off The name of the game is revising your credences. It's unsurprising to me you try to condemn me for it, since Elims already know alignments and therefore don't have to worry about credence revision. I've been unequivocal about my trusts of Aman and Archer, and a quick glance at my playhistory (LG83, AG8, MR56) will show that I do revise my credences and am stingy with those promoted to moderate Village credences. Even then, I did consider an E!Archer world C4 - I just decided that it was too outlandish for me to want to waste more time on it. If you don't keep pressure broad and push on various people in thread, then you don't get information. It's that simple. Given my voting habits, I'd argue it's the other way around - I don't consolidate on any bandwagon that appears, I've generally voted before it, e.g. C4, where I was an early pusher of Experience, alongside Archer. I've had to revise my credences on you, for instance, as you led me on a merry chase. But hey, don't let me try to stop you Brave of you to assume I'd not walk out during that first game Joy to the world, I have to wrestle you and your teammate to try to keep the Village alive? C'mon man, surely this is unfair Simply put, Orlok - you don't usually vote for the sake of voting. You've commented in previous games where you feel you don't have enough information to make a vote and declined to participate. The fact your behaviour is so different this time makes me think that it was alignment-motivated. And of course, in my case, I know now the busser is not Illwei or Ash, and it sure as hell ain't me, so I'm more or less committed to the fact it has to be you, even if that's information inaccessible to the thread and so not information I can use to convince the others that you are Evil. In a game with secret voting, I smell hammer bait

Sorry guys :/ Put a placeholder vote down on Ash before I left as I'd been re-evaluating my <Illwei, Ash> tier before I checked out of the cycle in exhaustion. From where I was at, if I couldn't be back in time (which happened, but I'm not sorry for that as I got a solid bloc of rest!) I wanted my vote to go where consolidation was, and going on Ash was the better choice since Maili was gunning for him - I still didn't see a world in which E!Archer was Striker's designated CW, so I was deeply committed to V!Archer and that train was a non-starter for me. Basically liked Maili's point on the NKs pointing to Ash. Still at low battery but I've gotten quite a bit more rest than I have in days even with the coughing so I'm content Archer: Flat out committed to V!Archer, and no one is going to talk me off this. I don't see a world in which E!Striker tries to CW on E!Archer. Teams do not immediately bus out the gate - they bus as a last resort, and the fact we're currently at lylo indicates that we're at 3 v 2 right now. This makes the Striker gambit theory even more weird in my view and cements Archer as my solid V of the cycle. Archer also voted for Orlok. Any Archer train is a non-starter for me. TUA: I like TUA's vote on Orlok last cycle, and think that points to V!TUA. I don't see TUA voting to endanger a teammate. Any TUA train is also a non-starter for me. Maili: I read Maili's emergence into activity last cycle and Ash train as an attempt to seize thread control and to keep the lynch away from Orlok, given that Orlok had returned from inactivity and could thus be sussed for the C1 vote (spoiler alert: I also am committed to E!Orlok now.) I also do side-eye Maili's last-minute post about wanting Orlok to be good - it fits with Maili's pattern of having defended Orlok throughout the game, with Aman calling Maili out C3 for shielding Orlok by apathy clearing Orlok. There's no reason to comment about wanting Orlok to be good right before the flip if Maili had voted on Ash anyway. (FYI that I'm also committed to E!Maili simply by PoE anyway, at this juncture. There's no way I'm accepting E!Archer or E!TUA and if E!Archer has somehow pocketed me, I'm not even going to be mad.) Orlok: This one's the kicker but also obvious and I regret not having the bandwidth to go ham on him last cycle, especially with the info we have now. Illwei flipped V. Ash flipped V. To me, it's extremely unlikely that the Elims did not bus, so as far as I'm concerned, he's our busser. Agreed with Archer that the fact I'm not NKed is likely because Orlok was aggressively pushing me for the lynch - failing which, I note that Orlok and potentially Maili are two players I'd expect to spare me from a NK. Wouldn't put it past Orlok to want to face me in a lynch, even if I can't give him the kind of fight Aman could. In summation: to consolidate, Maili. Can't deny this, as my argument for E!Orlok involves information that's not readily accessible to everyone. I'm going to have to spoil your thunder here a bit to point out that Maili has pushed for an Ash lynch at points, and was gunning for Ash last cycle. He did strongly V read Illwei C4. You might be thinking of me, but I've dithered quite a bit about Ash and Illwei before chunking them into Null+ by the end of C3, partly as a result of that long thread back-and-forth with Aman, and then never quite having the time to properly rethink them or decide how strongly I felt about them. I think there are reasons to sus Maili - but this one isn't it.

Dwai - to be clear, I'm just saying this as a realistic way of setting expectations for what I can give this cycle. We all know I have an awful habit of overcommitting in SE, and pushing myself past reasonable limits until I am completely burned out. I'm not saying this for pity points and if anyone wants to put me on the table as a candidate for getting lynched, feel free. (I know I've been suggested on your team so I do want to just address that chull in the room.) I think it's fair that if this is where your suspicions are, go for it. It's important to me that people don't read this as anything other than a raw statement of how little time/energy/bandwidth I have in my current state, and when I expect to be able to get back to do my part. I obviously will respond if I have bandwidth but since I'm pretty much hitting a wall right now in terms of how much left I have to give, I'm just going to shrug and come back if/when I have the recovery time to try to contribute at least a little. Best effort basis, as my boss keeps saying :/

I died from shock at seeing the longest analysis post from you you've put out so far Okay, look. Seriously - I'm running on one hour of sleep right now, I have a deadline by the end of today, have been juggling deadlines yesterday. It's really been a brutal week due to sickness because I wake up every other hour coughing my throat bloody so my sleep debt is in the red right now. Rollover should be what, 3AM my time? 2AM? IDER anymore. I can't think straight. I'm looking at Illwei's Archer megapost and your Ash post and I'm blinking and nothing is percolating in my head anymore except Hamlet ("Words, words, words.") I'm sorry. I know this could be lylo (unlikely imo, but) or very close to it and I know this matters for us, but I'm done. I'm tapping out. My best hope is to get a nap during lunch hour and then try to come back later and put something together when I can actually think rather than my brain screaming everytime it sees words. (I know, I've apparently been deathstaring at everyone at work and communicating in short pained noises.) If not, I can probably pull off a two hour nap at some point, set an alarm, and get on by when the North American crowd do in my evening to work out what I think of everyone. @ me if you need me to consolidate. I'll commit to checking at least once before EoC, but realistically, we're screwed if @The Unknown Novel isn't going to show up anyway in the worst case scenario, probably not if we're really versus a surviving team of two. I'm sorry. I just can't anymore. Lemme know if y'all need this bluetexted, as always.

Yeah, but in a four Elim world, there are three of them and four of us. As long as we stick to the agreed candidate, they can't hammer. I'm going to go read your Archer posts when I have time as part of my reconsidering. The other thing I will say, for the record, is that I just throw thoughts into the thread and into PMs. I argue with players to try and get a feel for positions, to test arguments for weaknesses. In doing so, I will sometimes assert positions more strongly than I hold them or make cases I don't fully believe in (sometimes that I utterly don't believe in at all - see Stick versus me in thread on AG8 D6.) This helps me come to conclusions, or to revise my own beliefs to try to be more on-target. I tried to do this with all my PM buddies concerning Ocho in AG8, and I was doing this with Stick and TJ on Elan in that same game - okay, why would Evil Elan kill Mat, why would Evil Elan out herself, why do we think there's an Evil Coinshot, do we think Karn is Evil, and so on. I generally think discussion is a good means of coming to a consensus and part of how I function is I interrogate players, and press their arguments for weaknesses, and see how they respond and how I respond. I think it helps them clarify their own thoughts, and it sure helps me clarify my own thoughts. I don't think I would have properly realised that I actually leaned V on you until I was engaging with Aman's arguments and realising that I wasn't sold on them (your response on C1 to Aman helped with that.) Basically, I'm not an introspecter. I have to talk to people and I do my best work discussing with/bouncing thoughts off people, and I think the dynamic Aman and I were just falling back into from MR56 is that he proposes a thought/read, I do my best to shoot it down, and we try to make it make more sense in the process.

Let me ask you this. Do you honestly think he's Village? And do you think the Striker train was pure? Because I'm honestly not sure. Part of me always wants to be Village bros with Orlok, and I see he's posted since then though I haven't had the time to engage with his posts or the thread due to work-SE balance being a lie. But if I'm committed to V!you, and I'm committed to V!Illwei, and I sure am not the busser, then I'm left with either the conclusion that there is no busser (side-trains?), or that the busser is Orlok. There is no other possibility left. I'm not irrevocably committed to E!Orlok. I made that mistake with Falcon. I'm willing to keep an open mind. But I absolutely suspect him. I think either way, it's clear there's a colossal failure of imagination here and I need to actually sit down and re-evaluate everything. For the record, I can't do anything more about an inactive beyond them being pinged So it's not clear to me what you mean by letting him die. I've been clear that he's in my busser pool, therefore suspicious to me, and that I haven't felt pressured to sit on him just yet because he was on death row, and I am okay with that. I think you mean if it's four Elims, it's today. But due to anonymous voting, if we don't agree on a candidate, we're screwed because the Elims will just hammer in their own candidate in their PMs. If it's three Elims, then it's tomorrow. Edited to add: Your C3 felt Village to me. I liked the fluidity in your PoE, and felt you were engaging with the game and trying to solve. I felt that your pushing the PoE and trying to get other players to interact with your five was positive engagement. Fluidity seemed to indicate to me that you were working things out and questioning - Elims know what the answers are, so I expect to see less of that from them. That should by right have put you out of my PoE, but I'm slow to revise when it comes to you and know that it is a weakness of my approach as a player. So the short of it is that by that point, you shouldn't have been in my PoE (I'm not sure if you mean PoE even - you were a solid null for me at that juncture, and I was working more with a readslist), but I was slow to properly update due to paranoia, until I forced myself to sit down and think through things consistently, and realised I was actually committed to an upwards revision of my read. Moreover, I really, genuinely dislike the "performativity of readslist"-type arguments. I generally think it's stylistic nitpicking, and vaguely recalled seeing you adopt enough different styles that I wasn't interested in taking it as a sign you were Evil. I think the mere fact that Wilson nearly MLed me for it, and Joe has MLed other players for it shows that players who use this argument aren't always picking up Elim tells - they're just shooting into the dark. So if that was supposed to sell me on Evil you, that's not going to work.

If D2 is V/V, which I'm not fully or necessarily sold on, then there are two possible worlds: the Elims voted, or they didn't. (So helpful, Kas!) In my view, V/V trains may sometimes have Elims hopping on to seem participatory but I generally expect low Elim train presence (if at all) because of low Elim investment, and prefer to look at side-trains. In this case though, there's just a main train and a side-train. Since there's no other trains, then yeah, we might expect to see Elims not-voting C2 as well. I can't work out the odds off-hand but that would absolutely be my suspect pool. Maili lampshading that he intended to vote Exp C2 but didn't at the start of C3 would be massively gutsy if so. But then again, at that point, thread mood was still mixed on you, I think, apart from Aman and myself coming around slowly to V!Ash possibilities. Are we though? You seem to have reason to think we aren't? From scanning, I can see it's largely from red flags in posts he made, and his interactions with Striker? He mentioned it in one of the previous cycles - I think C3. He could have voted in self-pres since he was a CW candidate but didn't, so it was meant to signal he's Village. Edited to add: @Ashbringer - To deepen the point, I think that my theory going into C3 was that Archer was the designated CW, and certainly Striker's behaviour seemed to reinforce it. I now think I have to look at three distinct possibilities: V!Archer was the designated CW. In which case, we have potential Elim involvement in pushing it: <Illwei, Ash.> I don't know how much I buy this as I still believe E!Illwei should've managed a better defense - same question I asked Aman. E!Archer was designated CW to look better off the flip. Again, don't know how much I buy this. It is striking the only Archer voter was JNV, a flipped Villager. But then, you'd think the Elims would at least put a bit more into making Archer look like he was under threat in the votes, since they clearly didn't expect a Striker landslide (defeats the point of a bus!) But maybe if they didn't expect a Striker landslide, they expected Archer to attract more votes. IDK. Variant of #1: V!Archer was the designated CW, but Striker was the only one pushing it. In that world, I'd argue the Elim roster is not especially strong in thread control, or active players (possibly due to scheduling issues.) That feels a lot like wishful thinking, but I'm also minded that in LG73, we did go up against a fairly passive Elim team. This would track if we think they had low vote participation C2. Edited to add 2: I'm currently struggling on how much weight to ascribe each possibility. Based off C3 EoC Kas thinking, I'd lean a bit more towards the third for now, and if so, would have to look at <Exp, TUA, Maili, Orlok.> Orlok italicised because of filter issues. But I'm not sure if that's much of a coherent team in there. Maili really because of that exchange with Aman about whether I'm apathy clearing Maili too fast.

Ave atque vale, ThreadPMBro We will finish what you started and find the remaining Elims! Alright, checking back in from workday of hell. @Bort, you mentioned you had thoughts on Archer/Ash interactions. What are they? I scanned C3 and don't recall you saying anything about them, though I could be wrong. V!JNV puts a pin in my theory that the Elims were aggressively pushing Archer as the CW. I still think that makes the most sense, which means I'm now obligated to rethink <Ash, Illwei>. The alternative is an E!Archer world, which I'm still not really sold on. @Ashbringer, @Illwei, @Experience, I'm interested in why you guys seem to have E!Archer credences. Especially Illwei, since you mentioned last cycle you're largely committed to a V!Archer world. @The Unknown Novel's post on E!Illwei implicating me and Experience gives me bad gut. I can see that from EoC C3!Illwei on Experience, and I suppose my defense of Illwei, but from my point-of-view, reads like a potential teammate trying to set up a ML on me with their teammate. I've had that feeling with E!Archer and E!Araris before, but this is TUA (TUN now? Seriously why change your name mid-game -.-) so I am resigned to alarm bells and uncertainty. Look. I am indeed defending Archer, because I still think V!Archer makes the most sense - CW and all - but I am open to being persuaded. I'm well aware I can be mistaken. Similarly, @Archer, you've commented about Ash and Orlok being on your sus list, but also decline to go for Ash and Orlok. I get Orlok - I still cannot get over that EoC vote, but am declining to press the issue since he's currently on death row, so the filter may solve him for us, and IMO, should have at least one to two more catchable teammates. Like. Look guys. Both of you. Or all of you. The point is that we're still running with a Village here. If you want an exe, push for it! I am having to do credence revision because JNV's flip indicates that there's something wrong about my C3 EoC beliefs. While I think this points more to me needing <Ash, Illwei> revision, I'm happy to entertain arguments on why I should be revising other credences instead. There's something that just kind of pings me wrong about both of you going "I have suspect X but...nah don't wanna." C'mon man, I'm one guy - from the looks of the thread, there's at least three players willing to flip Archer here. That's a prima facie viable train. We're not at the point where we can't afford a non-consolidated wagon, and I think the trains a player chooses to form and join are still informative. Similarly, Archer, Maili was down for flipping Ash. As was Illwei C3. That gives you a potential three player train. I'm squinting a bit at the thread mood sensitivity here, because we're not at the point we need a robustly consensus train, and the sensitivity to thread mood/what other players think is...a bit alarming. Aman suggested I might be giving Maili too much of an apathy clear. I'm okay with relooking Maili - in absence of the apathy clear, I'm struggling to get a clear read off of him. I do expect more thread control out of E!Maili but I acknowledge that since Maili already said he can't afford to play this game with such a high activity level, I could be over-anchoring on Maili, so I am okay with revising on him. E!Maili openly saying he wanted to vote Experience C2 here becomes bold though, especially if you think the D2 Thaid/Ash train are both V/V...which okay, fine. I dislike Exp's C1 EoC, and feel that Exp's last post from C3 sets off alarm bells of a player who knows JNV is going to flip Village and wants to soften his view, or hope someone talks him off onto the safe Illwei train instead. I'm going to put a vote on Experience for the moment, and do some vote pattern analysis during my next break. It busy workday my soul is dying bro But yes I am trying.

Alright, I woke up, went back to sleep, woke up, and my head is still full of fog. It's the end of the line for me, and I think these new meds are a bit too strong but hopefully they'll help deal with the problem in the long run because I'm heckin' tired of coughing my throat bloody. Best effort basis, no guarantees I will be back for the rest of the cycle as I'm just going to pass out again after this shot. As I mentioned before, tomorrow and Tuesday's packed work days for me with a bunch of tight deadlines so I absolutely have to make sure I'm not the walking dead. Not to steal Aman's thunder too much but I honestly could not care less if I got NKed But then, since when have I? (Cue: Archer, Bort, Araris flashbacks.) Here's the situation as I see it: If I want to be fair to Illwei, I genuinely like her posts this cycle. They feel engaged, and trying to solve the game. I appreciate the uncertainty and the fluidity of her PoE, and that at least feels like PM!Illwei to me. Against that, I weigh the Archer sus end-C1 (not as strongly now that I've realised her Archer post that I squinted at was early C2). I'm not strongly committed to a Elim being on the either (inclusive-or) Thaid and Ash trains, though I do think that's likely, and that narrows my field to <Illwei, JNV.> I don't think it's fair to continue to entertain paranoia of Illwei at this juncture, so I'm bumping her up to at least Null+ for now - this at least puts her ahead of JNV in my suspicions and therefore out of contention for me if JNV is on the table. (Which sort of foreshadows my JNV thoughts but more on that later.) Aman made this point as well: I'm just going to flat out say that I see it, and I honestly am a fan of it. And if this means E!Illwei is pocketing me and getting away with it, I'm happy to let her, at least for this cycle. E!Illwei still has one to two teammates who should be catchable, and I genuinely think that I like this shift in Illwei's current style, and I think it sets a poor precedent to reward a player for a prosocial shift in play by lynching them for it off the bat. So that's kind of where I stand: at least Null+, even if E, I really can't find the will to go after her right now. (We can blame Araris for pointing this out, I suppose, since I agree with that sentiment.) To me, the main issue with JNV is, as JNV acknowledges, that I'm a player who tends to focus a lot more on actions and especially concrete voting patterns than posts. Part of it boils down to the fact that I don't trust myself with reading posts that much, and feel I tend to go off the rails if I can't anchor myself to concrete actions or votes. I feel that JNV's C1 on Archer was still a bit too strong for a disagreement of reasoning, and I still think it makes more sense situationally as an attempt to drive forward the Archer CW that Striker seemed to be banking on. In a four-Elim world, I don't find it intuitive for the Elims to put all their eggs in one basket by jointly bussing Striker - I'd expect some off-train Elims too. (I guess there's a IKYK there, but that's not a rock I want to flip right now, because that'd commit me to E!Illwei, E!Orlok, and E!Ash all at once, unless I've got a bad read of Bort I guess, and I don't know how plausible that is. Gonna just refuse the IKYK and handle it straight for now.) We now know Thaid was Village. Other off-train voters include <Experience, TUA, Maili, and JNV.> Staying on the Archer CW is reasonable, especially since it's possible JNV couldn't get on again, and anyway they can't all be on the main train. That's about where I'm at. Nearly getting MLed for it by Wilson has a way of changing a guy's worldview Since then I genuinely don't like such arguments and I think they're overly nitpicking on stylistic points. I accept that you and Aman work to varying degrees with micro-details but I just can't work that way, and it's hard to convince me to go with an argument when I very well know Village Wilson mistakenly used it to nearly kill Village Wit Kas. (She didn't succeed in the end, there's a story there, but.) I think Joe has also MLed a few players for that, but Maili might remember, as I've forgotten the details. Or not - those were definitely pre-LG12 days, so forever ago. I'm drawing a sort of blank off it, to be honest. But I think this is where our favoured analysis styles diverge again. I'll be honest, I acknowledge I might definitely be giving Maili too much of a pass. He said in C2 that he was playing the game pretty chill, and in C1, that he didn't intend to do heavy analysis work, which I respect because I've wanted to have chill, RPful games before even if everyone knows that never pans out. I'm community-meta sensitive as a player, I acknowledge, which shows up there with Illwei as well. I try not to create environments where players who want a chill game or who want playstyle shifts get unfairly penalised for it. This was a bad aspect of old SE the community has moved away from and I'm glad we've moved away from it and will defend this shift stridently. That being said, I agree that this can't be used as a free pass - at most, the style shift has to be NAI rather than a Village pass or an Elim indicator. Factoring that out, I still struggle to see it: I think my issue is capability. It's not that Maili didn't, it's why wouldn't he? Losing a Elim is usually pretty bad as compared to us losing a Villager, due to numerical disparities and the way the wincons are structured. It's why I get to pyrehawk. Maili is capable of defending his teammates so the fact he didn't is ??? to me. I acknowledge the point that this treads dangerously close to a Dingo apathy clear, so I'm okay with pressure on Maili or trying to rethink, but that's not going to happen in my current state. I'd agree with the C2 Experience dgaf energy though - side-train votes usually stick out to me in a V/V train world, but I'm currently still favouring JNV so no change in my vote. As I mentioned earlier, Maili was a C1 side-train voter, so I guess I could see him in my pool if the Elims were trying to hedge their bets with some off-train Elims. But I feel like I'm going to and fro right now, so I'm going to cut myself off and go rest. There we go. Goodnight everyone, and all the best! I need to recover. Edited to add: Okay wait I realise my fairness point was incoherent so lemme try again. I'm aware that I apply stronger standards to Illwei than most players. This might be because our playstyles genuinely don't mesh well so I find it hard to read her, or her offsite meta, or IDEK. I do know I hesitate more over Illwei than most players (there are other players this applies to but it's not really relevant right now and I'm tired so whatever.) and I'd give less weight to something that would make me V!read Illwei as compared to the same piece of evidence for another player. Some of it is probably from watching LG74 from the GM end. But IDK. I do know it's a thing, and so I hesitate more with Illwei reads because I always have to consciously ask myself if I'm being unfair to her and what I'd say if it was any player not Illwei. With the other hand being me asking if I'm overhasty to just assign a read to her. I don't like singling a player out like that and I feel it's kind of like a backdoor rep issue and I sure wouldn't like it when players do it to me. So bottom line is that entire first bullet point is just me saying - bracketing my standards issue/Illwei paranoia, if she were another player, I'd lean V for this cycle, so I'm going to move her up to at least Null+.

Fair enough, and have fun! Edited to add: Yes: She was Village that game. I grant it's a longer haul as she didn't do it in AG8, LG83 or MR56. I guess you could ask what prompted that sudden shift back to it, though, but eh. Okay, yeah, I can see that. Which ties I suppose to your sense that there is a push for an Ash ML. Though if I recall correctly, Illwei has once bussed most of her team including Vapor (sorry Vapor!) to win as a solo Elim, so I do wonder if she'd do this. ( @Illwei?) But at the same time, no sane player goes solo Elim - chances tank astronomically, so I guess this would make sense to me, but...IDK. I think my current problem is that both are possible sets of explanations. The trick for me is now working out which is more plausible. On top of my usual wariness with reading Illwei. I've been relooking at the past cycles for Illwei and your point on the Striker-TUA/Striker-Illwei interactions, but I think it's the end of the line for me tonight. Will have to come back in the morning/afternoon as the meds are definitely kicking in and I'm not making much sense anymore. But realistically, this means I'll be looking at both Illwei and JNV tomorrow.

All the best, and sorry to hear man Take care of yourself too, that's important. I still have a couple of hours in me, I think. Or at least however long it takes for the meds to make me tired. I'm aware I can't be as available from Mon to Tues so it's important to me I do my best when my mental bandwidth is most available on the weekend, but thank you for the reminder I should be fine - I admit I feel a bit more personally invested and also a bit more lost precisely because it is Illwei, and exactly as you said, I don't want a repeat Falcon. If there's one player I absolutely want to get right this time or at least, to lynch after a fair hearing, it's Illwei. (Though tbf, this really should apply to everyone, but - AG8 Falcon.) But yes, am glad for the 23 extra hours, as I think I will need that time to try to work things out >> Especially with the help of (hopefully) more robust thread discussion. Okay, fair enough. What are your current conclusions? Care to share with the class?

Fair enough man, and apologies for the bad wording by the way It's late, still recovering from being sick, and my phrasing isn't good. But while I don't advertise this, part of me absolutely wants to sheep players I trust, and I think I was more careless about just saying it on the thread this time instead of in my GM PM. I need to talk myself out of that tendency at times, usually when I feel torn between two sets of arguments. I did it out loud this time (yeah guys now you know my dirty secret...) I don't recall, but I will go and take a look.

Gonna be honest, that makes a lot more sense than me wondering if I was tripping because I genuinely did not see the reads list point. Which probably explains why I was feeling about as weirded out as in MR56 C3, maybe less so because you were pushing it less strongly. I respect your instincts, coming from you. At the same time, I'm in this game to play it, not to sheep, as much as I often really...am tempted to run back to the security blanket of players I trust both because they are in my robust Village reads and I respect their abilities as players. (This isn't a statement about you, this is a reminder to me that I need to put the work in too. God knows I had a breakdown after Orlok died in AG8 because I didn't realise how much part of me was thinking I had Orlok's back and how much I was relying on that sense of security. I don't like players relying on me alone, I shouldn't do that to you too, and I need to do my share of the work.) I'll commit to rethink my TUA read, weighting your post and Striker's reaction, but in any case, I think I'm not down for a TUA lynch this cycle. I'm still not powerfully against it, but I'm currently advancing JNV, and hesitating on Illwei. I have liked Ash's kill analysis post (and that helps, since I have really been all over the place with him, though he's at least migrating through my positive tiers right now), so I would agree more with V!Ash than I did one cycle ago. Okay, but why now? Why not C1 when her teammate got lynched and they had to bus him? Honestly, I've done it when performing vote analysis as a Villager. (I didn't discover vote analysis in early SE so no baseline for E!Kas, think I didn't do it in BT1, just focused on the confirmed Villagers.) But I use a green highlight to indicate that for the sake of my own analysis, I'm considering myself Village, and I use the green highlight for my strong Village reads. Wilson almost MLed me in MR4 for something similar (I was the Wit, so confirmed Village), so I tend to be a bit wary around points involving this :/ I guess to be fair, you could say that there's a non-performative point to me doing so in vote analysis - the point is that it makes the patterns stand out more strikingly as a crude form of data visualisation. I usually do not put myself in my readslist, that is true. I have done so once or twice jokingly as a Villager, and I absolutely did so as the Security Officer to troll, but by and large, I just don't as it's not relevant and distracts people. So...I guess I could see that in a sort of cumulative argument ("all these small things don't add up.") But I don't know. She put you in her most recent Village read tier, and I know how she basically works is that she IDs trusts and she pings them to bounce thoughts. That's normally what happens between us in PMs, and it's possible she's relying on the thread now. But I need to check MR56 again, because I'm not sure if I recall her doing that there, and that was also a PM-less game. I can see this - I'm just stuck between two competing explanations and unsure of which I find more convincing right now. Full disclaimer that Illwei and I used to PM aggressively together as Villagers when we trusted each other - we...stopped being able to work together so successfully about half a year ago, but in all fairness, this is what I remember as her MO in PMs. I think that's one of the more reasonable takes on the Devo kill. It would take a lot more to sell me on a pure train. It's not absolutely impossible - I'd need strong reads and good vote track records (which we may not have enough runway for this game, I don't think), but the pure train theory is currently exiled out there on the porch with kayana crack theories like C1 gambit, E!Aman, and E!Archer. I assume you think it's meant to protect herself/shield teammates then? At this point, Illwei has been in my null tier simply because of the positives and negatives and I'm struggling to form an overall read outside of the nulls. I really want to read her engagement this cycle as Village, I'm wary because I know Illwei is very smooth as an Elim, and I'm also aware I am unfairly paranoid towards Illwei and I don't want to do the thing where I have reasons to read a player as Village but just kind of disregard them because I have a paranoia/playhistory-skewed very high threshold for me to feel comfortable Village-reading her. I do need to medicate (sorry, dipping for a short while, being sick has not been fun), but I'm really grateful for the extra time, GM and IM! Gives me a chance to sit down and work this out. Or talk this out - thread thought scratch table mode works.

My read on Maili isn't meta-based, but capability based. I cannot buy a world in which Striker is lynched without Maili intervention unless it was a gambit. And I've stated a few times why I think it's not a gambit and it would be kayana for it to be a gambit. We've seen Maili work the thread in LG74, and there's also LG51, which IMO makes for good entertainment reading - it's probably Maili's best Elim game and he's rightfully proud of it. To be sure, a lot of Maili's skill as an Elim requires PMs, but I just can't see him having about the reaction level of a dead fish to a teammate getting D1ed. I think he's capable of better than that, unless he was busy as all hell, I guess. But even then... How so?

I think I see it as reflection of the fact she's taken to expressing her uncertainty openly instead of only in PMs, or presumably, only in her head. This was also on D5, where I'd expect her to have much more solid reads than on D1. Perhaps the rejoinder is that I should then find a D1 from Illwei, but this I admit is a new notation system I've observed from her, as I don't recall seeing it in AG8 and it's probably from her offsite play. She didn't use it in MR56 as she used yet another system there, and she subbed into LG83, so it's not possible to compare like with like in this case. I think it's fair you want to claim the lists aren't comparable - I'm definitely looking at it on a more coarse-grained level as Illwei becoming more open about uncertainty. I still think the fact that the list is lower info in this game is explained by the fact it's a D1 list - so then I guess your emphasis is that she's only hedging on the E reads? In all fairness, I went back to dig through MR56 as well since I remembered she did a series of separate boxes, and I think that's where your memories of Illwei being more assertive about her reads come from, for reference: So I agree there's a shift, but I see it as a stylistic shift. I do see the reaction asymmetry with regard to Striker on Illwei and Striker on TUA btw - I'm honestly just not really feeling/understanding the list issue. Not a coincidence in what sense?

On Ash, yes if you consider Striker's reads post the first time it crops up. Subsequently, Archer makes a joking prod about E!Ash, and then Bort mentions suspicion of Ash, Illwei interrogates Ash (does not explicitly mention suspicion, but that's what it looks like), then Archer explicitly moves to E!Ash thought, which is where I'd consider Ash suspicion to properly emerge in robust form since Archer mentioned Ash was going into his vote pool. On Illwei, see here from LG83: I think it's a new style she's adopted, @Amanuensis - she was Village HK that game.

I want to check this too. I don't have a solid basis but I feel like I see more waffling from Illwei because she does that more when we're PMing in games. But I seem to recall something in LG83...I'm checking it.